Bush And Space

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 1 of 46

This is a slight reblock of this week's Thursday File. I've written 2NC and 2NR overviews, as well as 2NC blocks for uniqueness, link, and impact extensions. Rock and roll. Big breaking news this week is Bush's space plan. Here's my take on it as a scenario-Bush is pushing space exploration as a unifying political issue, but he needs to successfully sell it to the public. Ocean policy is vastly more popular than space which prevents Bush from building that public support. Bush's space plan is key to human survival. SPACE.................................................................................................................................3 SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 1 OF 2.................................................................................3 SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 2 OF 2.................................................................................4 2NC OVERVIEW............................................................................................................5 2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 1 OF 2.........................................6 2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 2 OF 2.........................................7 2NC LINK EXTENSION................................................................................................8 2NC IMPACT EXTENSION...........................................................................................9 2NR OVERVIEW..........................................................................................................10 SPACE KEY TO SURVIVAL........................................................................................11 BUSH IS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED......................................................................12 .......................................................................................................................................12 TOUGH SELL...............................................................................................................13 SPIRIT PROBE MEANS NOW KEY...........................................................................14 PUBLIC SUPPORT KEY TO SPACE PAGE................................................................15 POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY....................................................................................16 PUBLIC CARES MORE ABOUT OCEANS THAN SPACE......................................17 COST IS AFFORDABLE..............................................................................................18 BUSH PLAN = SPACE MIL.........................................................................................19 ENTITLEMENT REFORM KEY TO MARS...............................................................20 IMMIGRATION................................................................................................................21 POLITICAL CAPITAL KEY........................................................................................21 BUSH PUSH KEY........................................................................................................22 BUSH WON'T SPEND POL CAP ON IMMIGRATION OR SPACE..........................23 TOUGH FIGHT.............................................................................................................24 BUSH HAS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT...................................................................25 BASE HATES AMNESTY............................................................................................26 WILL BE ALTERED.....................................................................................................27 WON'T PASS.................................................................................................................28 IMMIGRATION REFORM SAVES THE GOP............................................................29 MISCELLANY..................................................................................................................30 PRICES ARE STABLE.................................................................................................30 ECONOMY STRONG..................................................................................................31 TRADE DEFICIT DOWN............................................................................................32 BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICIES WORKED...............................................................33 SPACE POLITICS Page 1 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 2 of 46

BASE DOESN'T LIKE HEALTHY MARRIAGE........................................................34 POLITICAL CAPITAL ON HEALTHY MARRIAGE KEY TO BASE.......................35 HEALTHY MARRIAGE SOLIDIFIES THE BASE.....................................................36 BASE IS LOCKED DOWN..........................................................................................37 BUSH ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE BASE.....................................................................38 GOP IS UNITED, DEMS DIVIDED............................................................................39 UNITY GIVES GOP HUGE ELECTORAL ADVANTAGE........................................40 ELECTION IS A TOSSUP............................................................................................41 BUSH STRAT IS TO BUY SWING VOTES................................................................42 O'NEILL WON'T HURT BUSH....................................................................................44 VETO KEY TO FISCAL CONSERVATISM................................................................45 DEMS LOSE ON TAXES.............................................................................................46

SPACE POLITICS Page 2 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 3 of 46

SPACE SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 1 OF 2 A. BUSH IS PUSHING A BOLD SPACE EXPLORATION PLAN--HIS BIG CHALLENGE IS TO WIN PUBLIC SUPPORT. Linda Feldmann Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, January 15, 2004, Thursday, Pg. 01 For decades, the concept of travel to the moon and beyond has tapped into that dreamy, know-no-limits side of the American psyche. Just as predictably, when the huge cost is raised, US attitudes come back down to earth. Polls show that public support drops then down to a modest minority. This is the challenge President Bush faces as he promotes his plan for renewed space exploration: selling the idea to a public that, when reminded, believes the billions of dollars it would cost should be spent elsewhere. The timing of the proposal also raises a political question: Will voters discount the idea as an election-year reach for grandiosity (with a bill that comes due later), or will they perceive this and other recent, bold proposals as welcome signs that Mr. Bush is a leader with vision? So far, Americans are reacting just as they did in the 1960s, when President Kennedy proposed travel to the moon. And that may be part of the White House's calculation, as Bush lays out a multibillion-dollar plan to establish a permanent base on the moon and a mission to Mars. During the '60s, as the nation faced the costs of the Great Society programs and the Vietnam War, it still managed to fund a space program that put the first man on the moon in 1969. "If the Democrats are going to come after Bush after his speech and say, 'At a time with record deficits, why are you proposing spending the money?' that will resonate to some degree with the public, no question about it," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll. "But on the other hand, the psychological lift that comes from the concept will also resonate with the public on the Bush side, so who knows?"

B. THE PLAN WILL SHIFT AND SEIZE THE PUBLIC IMAGINATION--THE PUBLIC CARES ABOUT THE OCEAN 4 TIMES MORE THAN SPACE. SEAWEB OCEAN UPDATE, November 1996, URL: http://www.seaweb.org/resources/1update/amaze.html By greater than a 4-to-1 margin, more Americans believe ocean exploration is of more vital national interest than space exploration. This according to a recent poll -- the most extensive survey of public views on oceans - by SeaWeb. The poll also showed that 58% say the condition of the ocean has deteriorated, 52 percent view the destruction of the ocean as a very serious threat to the quality of life today, and 62 percent view it as a serious threat ten years from now. Other findings: 71 percent agree that overfishing is threatening the health and stability of the marine environment. At a time in our political history when most Americans question the role of government, a surprising 85% of Americans believe the Federal government needs to do more to protect the ocean. And, perhaps most dramatically, 98% of Americans say we have a responsibility to protect the ocean so future generations can enjoy them. The poll, conducted for SeaWeb by Washington, D.C.-based polling company The Mellman Group, found that "the ocean" has the potential to become a powerful political issue. Says the Mellman Group's director, Mark Mellman, "the ocean is an issue waiting to be made" in the minds of the American people.

SPACE POLITICS Page 3 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 4 of 46

SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 2 OF 2 C. BUSH'S SPACE PLAN IS KEY TO HUMAN SURVIVAL. HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR., January 14, 2004, WALL STREET JOURNAL, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107403851479712400,00.html Why not go to Mars? We can't be here in this world just to fill our bellies and consume health care and stretch out our days as long as possible. And if you add up money already spent since Darwin trying to explain the origin of life on earth, throwing out a few dozen billion to extend the story to Mars doesn't seem unreasonable. An even better reason comes from remembering why Polynesians in their open canoes and early Africans and Christopher Columbus all went out in search of new lands to people: No reason other than that humans are curious and inclined to expand their numbers when the opportunity presents itself. In satisfying their wanderlust, their quest to go new places also helped to ensure humanity's survival. Up to now, though, our eggs remain in one basket, the earth, within a bigger basket, the solar system. Nature creates probabilities that, given enough time, are certainties: Someday something will bump into the earth, perhaps fatally. We wouldn't be here if asteroid impacts were not rare, but neither would we be here if they never happened, clearing out existing life to make room for new. Scientists suspect several thousand large objects exist in the solar system whose paths cross the earth's. One estimate predicts that collisions the size of one that leveled 800 square miles of Siberia in 1908 are a once-a-century occurrence. Nobody knows when a rock too big for humanity to survive might come along. The planet was pelted by several stones of civilizationwrecking size as recently as 36 million years ago. A newly-discovered crater in Bolivia is believed to signify a collision with an asteroid releasing the force of a thousand hydrogen bombs in the past 20,000 years. Two others of comparable size struck in the past million years. Whether we get started this century or next might not matter against such a time frame, but every job has to have a starting point. Here's the subtle charm of the president's plan, which waves off a direct there-andback trip to Mars in favor of first establishing a human habitation on the moon. His blueprint implicitly recognizes that the best reason for going anywhere is to begin creating the possibility of self-sustaining human settlements on other worlds. Those who say mere science could be done more cheaply with robotic probes are right. A space program that doesn't regard its ultimate purpose as conveying human beings to new worlds so they can inhabit and develop them is a space program in which manned spaceflight will remain an illogical extravagance. There is nothing humans can do on Mars that machines can't, except to live and behave (and evolve) as humans.

SPACE POLITICS Page 4 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 5 of 46

2NC OVERVIEW BUSH IS PUSHING FOR THE FIRST MEANINGFUL STEP TO SPACE COLONIZATION--A PERMANENT HUMAN SETTLEMENT ON THE MOON--BUT TO MAKE IT HAPPEN BUSH NEEDS TO SELL IT TO A SCEPTICAL PUBLIC-THAT'S THE A CARD. ALSO--BUSH IS PUSHING SPACE EXPLORATION PURELY FOR ELECTORAL POLITICS--HE WANTS TO INSPIRE THE PUBLIC AND PROVE HE HAS VISION--BUT SPACE IS A TRICKY ISSUE TO USE-SUPPORT IS BROAD BUT SHALLOW. RINKER BUCK; Courant Staff Writer, Hartford Courant (Connecticut), January 14, 2004 Wednesday, 7 SPORTS FINAL, Pg. A1 McCurdy says Bush has two principal motives for launching a space initiative early in this election year. First, McCurdy says, "Bush wants to be known as more than just the president of anti-terrorism and tax cuts." Second, last fall's recall vote in California has put that large state "back in play" for the Republicans in 2004, and appealing to the large mass of southern California votes relying on aerospace spending could help tip the balance for Bush, McCurdy says. Roger D. Launius, chairman of the space history division at the Smithsonian Institution, doesn't consider this kind of political calculation too far-fetched. "In the early 1990s we did an interview with [former Richard Nixon White House aide] John Erlichman. Erlichman made it clear that, during the decision to go forward with the space shuttle in January 1972, he was most concerned about 'battleground states' [for the 1972 election]: California, Texas, Florida. These were big electoral states with a large aerospace community. Erlichman perceived the shuttle program as a relatively modest investment that would help secure those states. You have to ask yourself, 'Is Bush doing the same thing?"' Launius says polling data have consistently shown the American people to be ambivalent about funding the space program. A Launius study that compiled polling data from as far as back 1961 shows that about 50 percent of the American public consistently opposed the huge investment required of manned space flight. Support for the program generally ran less than 45 percent. An Associated Press poll conducted last weekend showed Americans evenly divided -- 48 percent to 48 percent -- about expanding the space program. "Most people like the space program and say they favor it by significant percentages, but this support is a mile wide and an inch deep," Launius says. "They don't want to spend money on it. That's been very consistent from the 1960s to the present time." Americans also may applaud the president's new space initiative while still being realistic about his political motives. "President Bush and I do not agree on much," says former White House aide and Kennedy biographer Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. "But I do agree with him on this. I'm all for space and the last frontier. But Bush may have mixed motives. He obviously feels that his father's fatal flaw was a lack of the 'vision thing.' So now Bush Jr. is overflowing with visions. Space is a great way to show he's good on the vision thing."

SINCE BUSH IS ONLY PUSHING SPACE FOR POLITICAL REASONS HE WOULD JUMP TO TOUTING THE MUCH MORE POPULAR OCEAN POLICY ISSUES RAISED BY THE PLAN --THE PUBLIC THINKS OCEANS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN SPACE BY 4 TO 1--THAT'S THE SEAWEB B CARD--THE RESULT OF FAILING TO GET ENOUGH PUBLIC SUPPORT TO PASS BUSH'S SPACE PLAN IS ALL OF HUMANITY WOULD STAY VULNERABLE TO INEVITABLE EXTINCTION FROM A CATACLYSMIC ASTEROID STRIKE-THAT'S THE JENKINS C CARD FROM THE SHELL. SPACE POLITICS Page 5 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 6 of 46

2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 1 OF 2 1. CONGRESS IS SUPPORTIVE--THE ONLY CONCERN IS COST WHICH CAN BE CONTAINED. Edwin Chen, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times, January 15, 2004 Thursday, Home Edition, Part A; Pg. 1 Initial reaction from members of Congress was generally positive, but many expressed concern over the program's eventual price tag -- perhaps hundreds of billions of dollars -- at a time when the country faces a deficit of about $480 billion this fiscal year. Democrats were most vocal in questioning Bush's spending priorities. "Those of us whose feet are planted firmly on Earth are alert to the fact that the promises of other bold presidential initiatives are going unfulfilled," said Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo). "Why is the No Child Left Behind program, which provided such hope just two years ago, now being deprived of the financial support needed to meet its goals?" House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) lavishly praised the initiative. "A national commitment to space is not a voluntary initiative -- it is a strategic imperative," he said. White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan said the initiative would not derail Bush's commitment to halve the federal budget deficit within five years.

2. THEIR EVIDENCE IS NOT PREDICTIVE-IT'S JUST A SNAPSHOT OF THE CURRENT POLITICAL SYSTEM--OUR A SUBPOINT EVIDENCE PROVES THAT BUSH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE CONGRESS BY BUILDING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR HIS PLAN. 3. BUSH IS WORKING NOW TO PARLAY THE SUCCESS OF THE MARS SPIRIT PROBE INTO SUPPORT FOR HIS PLAN. Camden Pierce, Moscow News (Russia), January 14, 2004, No. 01 Whether these pronouncements are simply election-year "shock and awe" tactics is hard to say. It has been over 30 years since America first set foot on the lunar surface, and perhaps Bush is hoping to capture some of that magic moment in his run-up to the presidential election in November. Bush's program is reminiscent of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy's lunar initiative that was largely inspired by Soviet advances in space exploration. Those Communist-era successes caught many in the U.S. by surprise, and sent ripples throughout American society - from its space program to the realm of public education. In the words of the Russian newspaper Izvestia, Bush is looking to induce the "Kennedy effect." It is easy to understand why the American space agency is now pushing for brave new worlds, not to mention massive government support for their pains. NASA has been humbled lately in its efforts to breach the galactic frontier. At present, NASA must rely on Russian rocket launches to reach the international space station. Furthermore, China has been flexing its cosmic muscles with the recent announcement from its space agency that it will "embark on a maiden unmanned mission to the moon within three years." It seems that the Bush administration is banking on the success of its recent unmanned probe to Mars as an opportunity to advance more controversial missions in the future. NASA chalked up a critical victory for itself in early January as its Mars probe Spirit sent back to Earth black-and-white photos of the Martian terrain. U.S. activity on planet Earth has been no less ambitious.

SPACE POLITICS Page 6 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 7 of 46

2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 2 OF 2 4. UNIQUENESS IS NOT AN ABSOLUTE ISSUE-NO MATTER HOW DEFINITIVE THEIR AUTHORS STATEMENTS ARE IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO BE CERTAIN THAT BUSH WON'T PULL THIS OFF--KENNEDY WAS ALSO RIDICULED FOR HIS ORIGINAL MOON MISSION ANNOUNCEMENT, BUT PUBLIC MOBILIZATION CAN RAPIDLY SHIFT POLITICAL REALITIES--THERE IS ALWAYS A RISK OF THE SPACE MISSION HAPPENING IN STATUS QUO. 5. THERE IS AN INDEPENDENT LONG-TERM SCENARIO--THE NECESSITY TO GET TO SPACE MUST RESONATE DEEPLY ENOUGH WITH THE PUBLIC TO LAST FOR DECADES, THROUGH LOTS OF DIFFERENT ADMINISTRATIONS-THE POLITICAL SITUATION THEIR UNIQUENESS CARDS TALK ABOUT IS SHORT-TERM AND IRRELEVANT. Sam Silverstein, Space News Staff Writer, January 14, 2004, URL: http://space.com/news/challenge_ahead_040114.html Today, as Bush seeks to restore NASA’s luster in the wake of the painful loss last year of the space shuttle Columbia, he will in a sense pick up where the Apollo program left off more than 25 years ago, said Lewis Peach, chief engineer of the Universities Space Research Association in Columbia, Md. “There was no buy into longer-term goals by NASA once the Apollo program stopped.” Peach said. “It wasn’t sustainable. Once it was done, there was nothing for the future.” Bush’s father, President George H.W. Bush, attempted to turn the United States back in the direction of Mars in a 1989 speech marking the 20th anniversary of the first lunar landing, Apollo 11. But Griffin -who joined NASA to turn the elder Bush’s ideas into reality -- said the proposals never took hold because Congress did not see the value in investing heavily in space exploration. “There’s an old saying that the administration proposes and Congress disposes,” Griffin said. The first President Bush was unable to convince the nation that “the country needs to be the pre-eminent spacefaring nation because is it about exploring the frontier and that is what great nations do.” John Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at the George Washington University here, said the scathing report by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) could give Bush and NASA momentum as they seek the support that was lacking in 1989. Back then, said Logsdon, “NASA didn’t have the kind of criticism that came out the CAIB about it having a lack of vision. NASA wasn’t involved in the initiative, and they weren’t very enthusiastic.” Griffin said it will be essential for Bush’s space vision to resonate deeply enough with the public that future presidents and members of Congress are not tempted to scale back or derail the nation’s space ambitions. Griffin noted that programs with broad public appeal - such as Social Security, established by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s – endure indefinitely even as they periodically come up for debate. “While someone must first articulate the vision, succeeding political administrations must continue [to support it],” he said.

6. OUR LINK APPLIES TO THE LONG-TERM SCENARIO--BUSH WON'T CHOOSE TO UNDERTAKE THE MASSIVE MOBILIZATION OF THE PUBLIC BECAUSE OF POLITICAL OPPORTUNISM--THE PLAN WILL SHOW HIM THAT THE PUBLIC CARES FAR MORE ABOUT OCEANS--THAT'S OUR LINK EVIDENCE, AND BUSH WILL SEIZE ON THAT ISSUE INSTEAD.

SPACE POLITICS Page 7 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 8 of 46

2NC LINK EXTENSION 1. BUSH IS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED IN PUSHING FOR SPACE EXPLORATION-- BUSH IS PUSHING SPACE AS A UNIFYING POLITICAL ISSUE. DAVID E. SANGER and RICHARD W. STEVENSON, The New York Times, January 15, 2004, Thursday, Late Edition - Final, Section A; Page 1; Column 5 In 1989, President Bush's father envisioned a permanent base on the Moon and a manned mission to Mars, and the next year he set a goal of reaching Mars by 2020, the outside target date the current President Bush has set for a return to the Moon. The first President Bush's plan came to naught; but the program announced on Wednesday was somewhat more specific, a series of missions that would start with robots and culminate, someday, in lengthy human explorations. But if the vision Mr. Bush sketched was expansive, it was at least partly rooted in earthly political concerns. With the nation deeply divided along partisan lines on the most pressing issues of the day, including the war in Iraq, tax cuts and the environment, Mr. Bush's political advisers backed the plan as a way of associating the president with a unifying and uplifting election-year goal that transcends politics.

2. PLAN GIVES HIM A NEW AND VASTLY MORE POPULAR NATIONALLY UNIFYING ISSUE TO USE INSTEAD OF SPACE--THE OCEANS--OUR B SUBPOINT EVIDENCE IN THE SHELL IS ON-POINT AND PHENOMENAL AND HERE'S MORE EVIDENCE. Biodiversity Notes, FALL 1996, URL: http://www.biodiversityproject.org/newsletters/newsfa96.pdf SeaWeb (formerly the Marine Conservation Initiative) has undertaken a new campaign to raise public awareness about the ocean and the life within it. A nationwide poll conducted for SeaWeb by the Mellmann group (completed late this spring) provides new insights into how Americans view Earth's oceans. Intriguing was the overwhelming preference for funding ocean exploration as contrasted with space (72% to 17%). As for the state of the oceans, Americans are concerned about oil spills and chemical runoff, fish contamination, and over-fishing. Affirming results from other recent research, the public shows a strong preference for personal actions (such as recycling oil or picking up beach litter) in contrast to other forms of action such as joining a group or supporting new regulation.

3. PUBLIC SUPPORT IS KEY TO SPACE. Patrick McGann, Lewiston Morning Tribune (Idaho), January 14, 2004 Wednesday, Pg. 8A We need to be a power in space. We are dependent on communication, navigation, weather-observation and military-intelligence satellites. Our only ability to service them, the space shuttle program, is grounded, and its authorization is set to expire this summer. The president will reauthorize it through 2010, because there's no other choice. This is the same plan presented by the first President Bush. As a re-election tactic it didn't work, obviously. As a new scientific initiative, it wasn't started. Even as a proposal, it wasn't finished. Christopher Kraft -- former NASA mission control director during the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo programs -- said the main obstacle is public opinion: "The biggest challenge is getting the nation to be as supportive for going back to the moon and on to Mars in the future the same way it was for the Apollo program."

SPACE POLITICS Page 8 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 9 of 46

2NC IMPACT EXTENSION IT'S TRY OR DIE BABY--THE C SUBPOINT EVIDENCE FROM THE 1NC PROVES THAT WITHOUT BUSH'S PARADIGM SHIFT TO HUMAN SPACE COLONIZATION ALL OUR EGGS ARE IN ONE BASKET AND HUMAN EXTINCTION IS A CERTAINTY--DWARFS THE WORKADAY CONCERNS OF THE AFF CASE-AND SPACE EXPLORATION IS KEY TO CONTINUED HUMAN EXISTENCE. George Christopher Thomas, former House of Representatives staff worker and a freelance journalist in the Los Angeles area, Ventura County Star (California), July 22, 2002 Monday, Pg. B07 In the future, the world economy will be based upon space exploration and travel. It is the only way to save life on this planet. If we continue to destroy ourselves and our planet, then we will end up just like the dinosaurs. This is not to say the extinction of the dinosaurs came as a result of depleting the natural resources of this world or mutually assured destruction from nuclear warfare, but the end result is the same, not existing. The arms race between the U.S.S.R. and the United States created the space race. Space was considered, and now is becoming, the battleground of the future. When the U.S.S.R. put the first man in space, it showed the United States and the rest of the world it had a technological advantage. This is not only the reason the United States pursued such an aggressive space program, however, it is why our government wanted to put a man on the moon, so the technological advantage would again be ours. President Kennedy said: "Many Americans make the mistake of assuming that space research has no values here on Earth. Nothing could be further from the truth. Just as the wartime development of radar gave us the transistor, and all that it made possible, so research in space E holds the promise of substantial benefit for those of us who are earthbound." Our exploration and development of space travel technology will only improve our lives here on Earth. From a military standpoint, having weapons in space gives this nation a huge strategic advantage over all other potential enemies. The development of a missile defense shield also adds to our security. Another reason to pursue weapons in space is the asteroid theory. The fact that a very large asteroid has hit Earth before. That conventional explanation for the extinction of the dinosaurs is enough for me to consider weapons in space. After all, history tends to repeat itself, and if we aren't smart enough as a human species to count on it possibly happening again, then we deserve to become extinct. Having a huge nuclear weapon on Pluto that is capable of blowing up an asteroid before it even comes close to Earth sounds like a good policy for all of the countries of the world to pursue. As it is right now, we hardly even go back to the moon. We should be looking into biodomes on the moon, and other forms of structures that can assist in sustaining life. I also believe it should be the policy of this nation's government to work toward putting a woman on the planet Mars. Our goals should include not only exploring Mars, but every planet and the respective moons in our solar system. In the future, you should be able to vacation on Pluto, just to get away from it all. The nature of humans can be very bad, but the reverse is also true. Exploring has been in our blood since the beginning of time. Exploring and inhabiting other planets is the next logical step in our evolution. Plus, the medical and technological breakthroughs that we will stumble onto by exploring space will increase the quality of life for everything on planet Earth.

SPACE POLITICS Page 9 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 10 of 46

2NR OVERVIEW BUSH IS PUSHING FOR THE FIRST MEANINGFUL STEP TO SPACE COLONIZATION--A PERMANENT HUMAN SETTLEMENT ON THE MOON--BUT TO MAKE IT HAPPEN BUSH NEEDS TO SELL IT TO THE PUBLIC--HIS MOTIVATION FOR DOING SO IS POLITICAL--HE WANTS A UNIFYING ISSUE HEADING INTO THE ELECTION. SINCE BUSH IS ONLY PUSHING SPACE FOR POLITICAL REASONS HE WOULD JUMP TO TOUTING THE MUCH MORE POPULAR OCEAN POLICY ISSUES RAISED BY THE PLAN --THE PUBLIC THINKS OCEANS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN SPACE BY 4 TO 1--THAT'S OUR PHENOMENAL LINK EVIDENCE--THE RESULT OF FAILING TO GET ENOUGH PUBLIC SUPPORT TO PASS BUSH'S SPACE PLAN IS ALL OF HUMANITY WOULD STAY VULNERABLE TO INEVITABLE EXTINCTION FROM A CATACLYSMIC ASTEROID STRIKE--THAT'S THE JENKINS C CARD FROM THE SHELL AND THE 2NC IMPACT EXTENSIONS. IT'S TRY OR DIE BABY--THEIR ADVANTAGES JUST DON'T MATTER IF WE'RE ALL STUCK ON THIS DESOLATE ROCK…. NOW THE LINE-BY-LINE.

SPACE POLITICS Page 10 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 11 of 46

SPACE KEY TO SURVIVAL SPACE IS KEY TO SURVIVAL. MARK CARREAU, The Houston Chronicle, October 19, 2002, Saturday 3 STAR EDITION, SECTION: A; Pg. 01 With Apollo astronaut John Young leading the charge, top aerospace experts warned Friday that humanity's survival may depend on how boldly the world's space agencies venture into the final frontier. Only a spacefaring culture with the skills to travel among and settle planets can be assured of escaping a collision between Earth and a large asteroid or devastation from the eruption of a super volcano, they told the World Space Congress. "Space exploration is the key to the future of the human race," said Young, who strolled on the moon more than 30 years ago and now serves as the associate director of NASA's Johnson Space Center. "We should be running scared to go out into the solar system. We should be running fast." Scientists believe that an asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs more than 60 million years ago, and are gathering evidence of previously large collisions. "The civilization of Earth does not have quite as much protection as we would like to believe," said Leonid Gorshkov, an exploration strategist with RSC Energia, one of Russia's largest aerospace companies. "We should not place all of our eggs in one basket."

SPACE POLITICS Page 11 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

Phil Kerpen Page 12 of 46

BUSH IS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED BUSH'S MOTIVATION FOR PUSHING SPACE IS POLITICAL--HE WANTS A POPULAR, UNIFYING ISSUE. Mike Allen and Eric Pianin, Washington Post Staff Writers, The Washington Post, nuary 15, 2004 Thursday, Final Edition, A01 Bush's new space policy had a partly political genesis, with presidential advisers saying that it emerged from a White House search for a bold goal that would help unify the nation before Bush's reelection race and portray him as visionary. Officials said that Bush had always planned to reexamine NASA's mission, but the disintegration of Columbia was the immediate catalyst. The president's promised "new era of discovery" was developed by a multi-agency group, coordinated at the National Security Council. Officials said the lunar and Mars program will have a military component, noting that the Pentagon will be consulted and may help with launches.

BUSH IS PUSHING THE SPACE PLAN TO GET PUBLIC ATTENTION. JEAN-LOUIS DOUBLET, Agence France Presse, January 14, 2004 Wednesday The new space program President George W. Bush announced Wednesday is the latest of several initiatives he has launched to gain Americans' attention as he seeks ways to pull the rug from under Democrats' feet ahead of the November race for the White House. With his announcement of new missions to the moon -- to operate as a base for even more ambitious expeditions to Mars -- Bush is looking to revisit the popular Apollo program launched by president John F. Kennedy in 1961 that led to man's first moon walk in 1969.

BUSH IS PUSHING SPACE TO DISTRACT THE PUBLIC FROM OTHER ISSUES. JEAN-LOUIS DOUBLET, Agence France Presse, January 14, 2004 Wednesday Less than 10 months from presidential elections that Bush hopes will keep him in the White House for a second term, his announcement of a new space program was clearly aimed at drawing public attention away from difficulties in Iraq and an economy that has not yet fully recovered, critics said. "We've got a 450 billion deficit this year," said Senator Richard Gephardt, one of nine contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. When I led the fight for the (president Bill) Clinton economic program in 1993, we had these kind of big deficits. Our first attention was paid to the economy and getting jobs back in this country. And that's what we ought to be doing now." None of the nine has emerged in the polls as a clear front-runner against Republican Bush in November, and Bush hopes to make the most of his advantage as incumbent president in education, health and social issues, themes considered Democrats' pet territories, while at the same time offering the space program.

SPACE POLITICS Page 12 of 46

DC NATIONAL TEAM SPACE POLITICS

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TOUGH SELL SPACE PLAN WILL BE A TOUGH SELL TO CONGRESS AND THE PUBLIC. CNN.com, January 14, 2004 Wednesday President Bush's plan to send astronauts to the moon and then to Mars has been met with skepticism from some lawmakers, academics and even the public. A new Associated Press poll finds that more than half of respondents would prefer to spend the money on domestic programs rather than on space research. Bush asked Congress on Wednesday to increase funding for NASA by nearly $1 billion over five years and to redirect $11 billion from other space agency programs toward the new effort during the same period. The amounts represent seed funding for a new class of rockets and spacecraft that would carry humans on exploratory journeys in space. There is congressional concern that the lofty goals in the Bush initiative may far exceed the proposed budget. "The first year after [President John] Kennedy announced the Apollo program, the NASA budget was doubled," said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, the only current member of Congress who has flown in space.

BUSH'S SPACE PLAN WILL BE A TOUGH SELL TO THE PUBLIC. Ralph Vartabedian and Elizabeth Shogren, Times Staff Writers, Los Angeles Times, January 10, 2004 Saturday, Home Edition, Part A; Pg. 7 The idea of a Mars or moon mission is not new. Advocates of space exploration always have considered them the key long-term goals, and the justification for such a massive effort remains the expansion of human presence beyond the known world -- an instinct as old as the human race. The value of the Bush administration proposal is likely to be judged not by the idea itself, but by whether it can create the political and financial support needed to make the program real. "Bush can talk the talk, but he has to come up with a plan that generates something besides artwork," said John Pike, an expert on space issues. "He has to come up with a plan that is politically and financially sustainable." White House officials have withheld many details of the plan and have made no public statements, deferring until Bush makes his widely anticipated speech next week. But the initiative already has sparked strong debate, even within the ranks of space-exploration advocates. A manned moon or Mars mission could be a tough sell to the general public, coming at a time when the federal government is heavily in debt and facing massive investments needed to modernize the electrical grid, improve crumbling highways, build new universities and many other items crucial to U.S. economic competitiveness. The U.S. Treasury is expected to sustain a $480-billion deficit this fiscal year, and rack up annual deficits of $1.4 trillion between now and 2008.

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SPIRIT PROBE MEANS NOW KEY SPIRIT LANDING HAS PUBLIC FOCUSED ON MARS BUT SOLIDIFYING THAT PUBLIC INTEREST INTO SUPPORT FOR BUSH'S SPACE PLAN IS UNCERTAIN. Frank D. Roylance, The Baltimore Sun, January 12, 2004 Monday FINAL Edition, Pg. 10A Everything that scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory see is being posted on NASA Web sites. Just three days after Spirit's landing on Mars on Jan. 3 - even before news broke of President Bush's proposal to send humans to Mars after establishing a base on the moon - the number of "hits" on the Mars Rover Web pages had topped 1 billion. That's more than a third of the traffic on NASA's Web sites in all of 2003. "It is an unprecedented Internet event for NASA," said Brian Dunbar, NASA's Internet services manager. The public response to the first successes of the $820 million Mars rover missions, space historians say, is due in part to the long romance people have had with the most Earth-like planet in the solar system and the persistent hope that it might harbor life - alien life or, one day, transplanted humans. It also surely reflects the improved capability of the new lander's cameras and the public's access to the Internet - which has grown enormously since the last successful Mars landing, in 1997. What's far less certain is whether the public's fascination with the Mars images will translate into increased political support for NASA's budget and for Bush's new ambitions in space.

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PUBLIC SUPPORT KEY TO SPACE PAGE PUBLIC SUPPORT IS KEY TO BUSH'S SPACE PLAN. Frank D. Roylance, The Baltimore Sun, January 12, 2004 Monday FINAL Edition, Pg. 10A Even after the popular Pathfinder mission in 1997, Launius noted, NASA's overall budget declined: "Success does not necessarily equate to political and budgetary fortunes." Space historian McCurdy said a success like Spirit's on Mars can help. "If the robotics people are successful with low-cost missions which fit inside the NASA budget, it's not hard to figure out the decision," he said. While no one is proposing new expeditions like the $3.3 billion Cassini (launched in 1997 and due at Saturn in July), NASA is continuing with cheaper robotic adventures, including missions to Mercury and Pluto, both developed at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab. "They're going to keep the momentum going with low-cost missions and hope one day to spring enough money loose to fund the big-budget human missions," McCurdy said. Whether Bush can whip up public enthusiasm and the big sums needed from Congress for his grand vision of space exploration remains unknown.

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POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY TO BOLD SPACE EXPLORATION. HOMER HICKAM, January 13, 2004, WALL STREET JOURNAL, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107396023277254300,00.html Let's be clear. Space is a nasty and cruel place for human beings. The analogy that going into space is like Columbus sailing off to discover the New World followed by hordes of immigrants is ludicrous. The moon isn't the Bahamas and Mars isn't New England. Antarctica is the better analogy. The world has been mucking around down there for over a century but I don't see too many towns sprouting up on the ice. Yet what's happening there is productive. The scientists and engineers who have journeyed to that far-away place are there to try to figure out some things, such as how the Earth works. How the Earth works is pretty important, especially if we want to keep living on it. And right there is the key to clear thinking about human beings in space. There are a lot of people, just like those men and women down at the South Pole, who need to go to the moon and maybe beyond to help figure out how the Earth and the universe works, to discover the answers to some fundamental questions of chemistry, physics, biology, medicine and, yes, even philosophy that might be answered there and only there. And here's a prediction. Once we get people on the moon, more than a few of them will figure out how to turn a buck, lots of bucks. There's no downside that I can see to the entire enterprise. I think even my dad would agree. If the president's space proposals seem overly bold, it's because no president has ever thought it important enough to spend any political capital to see a cogent plan in space all the way through. I don't agree with President Bush about everything but he's starting to remind me of Harry S. Truman. He gets with the program. You can argue with him about what he does and you might even be right, but you can't fault the man for getting out front and leading. That is, after all, what we hire our presidents to do.

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PUBLIC CARES MORE ABOUT OCEANS THAN SPACE PUBLIC PRIORITIZES OCEAN PROTECTION OVER SPACE. John Yaukey, Gannett News Service, February 18, 1998 Most Americans believe the world's oceans are being plundered and polluted beyond sustainability and should take priority over space as a national focus of research, according to a recent poll. When asked to prioritize between charting space or the oceans, 55 percent of the survey group chose the oceans, while 35 percent took space despite the discovery in 1996 of what could be microbial fossils on Mars. The vast majority of those surveyed for SeaWeb, an education and advocacy project of the Pew Charitable Trusts, saw the oceans as intimately linked to the future of humans. "It surprised us a little that the people surveyed picked the oceans over space," said Boyce Thorne-Miller, a marine biologist with SeaWeb. "Perhaps it's because the oceans are more about people and life than space."

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COST IS AFFORDABLE COST IS AFFORDABLE AND PAYS FOR ITSELF. HOMER HICKAM, January 13, 2004, WALL STREET JOURNAL, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107396023277254300,00.html All I've got to say is please, for pity's sake, stop worrying about NASA stealing money from your favorite federal program and adding to the deficit. Out of a $2 trillion-plus budget in 2004, human resources programs (Education, Health and Human Services, HUD, Labor, Social Security, etc.) will get an astounding 34%! In contrast, NASA has the smallest budget of all the major agencies in the Federal government. In fact, its budget has represented less than 1% of the total budget each year since 1977 and it will probably never get more than a fraction above that, even with this new plan. Before they complain about it, I wish the moaners would take the time to find out a few things about NASA's measly 1%. It has added billions of dollars back to our economy. It's about the only program in the Federal budget that has a track record of doing that. When NASA does cutting-edge work, new products are devised and people, Americans, are put to work producing them. To keep our economy steaming and pay our bills, we have to stay ahead in product innovation. That means inventing and manufacturing new products. One proven way to do that is to get the space program going with some real work.

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BUSH PLAN = SPACE MIL BUSH'S SPACE PLAN IS A COVER FOR MILITARIZATION. ANDREW BUNCOMBE IN WASHINGTON, The Independent (London), January 15, 2004, Thursday, Pg. 15 But other critics claim the Bush administration's move is part of a broader effort to militarise space. Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, chaired a blue-ribbon space commission that recommended in the spring of 2001 merging air force and space operations into single body and the establishment of "Space Corps" in the US Air Force by the end of the decade. Alice Slater, director of the Global Resource Action Centre for the Environment, said yesterday: "They are not going to fly you to the moon, they are only going to fly military equipment. The plan to establish a beach-head, taking the high ground from which to dominate and control the military use of space, is clearly articulated in the documents of the US Space Command. It will create a new arms race to the heavens." Michelle Ciarrocca, of the World Policy Institute and author of report on the Bush administration's missile defence plans, said: "The push to establish a permanent US presence on the moon could be the first step in carrying out the goals outlined by Rumsfeld's space commission. Eight Pentagon contractors were on the commission, marking a serious and direct conflict of interest." Experts believe robots would be sent to the moon by 2008 and astronauts ready to build a lunar base would land there by 2020. The proposal envisions using the moon as a staging area for deeper space exploration with a landing on Mars after 2030.

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ENTITLEMENT REFORM KEY TO MARS ENTITLEMENT REFORM IS KEY TO MARS. HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR., January 14, 2004, WALL STREET JOURNAL, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107403851479712400,00.html Mr. Bush seems to prefer the approach that brought us the Manhattan Project and Apollo, successful if costly endeavors in government-sponsored ambition. That's all the more reason to suspect that getting to Mars will require a second monumental effort on Mr. Bush's part: reforming Social Security and Medicare. Nobody is going anywhere until these wealth-sapping obligations of the federal government are converted into true insurance programs -- that is, into true wealth holdings for individuals. Mr. Bush's sherpas are already plotting private accounts as a way to transform Social Security from a burden on labor productivity into a property right for individuals. Health savings accounts, now in their infancy, combined with tax reform, would provide a model for doing the same with Medicare. Those who confidently insist Mars is "unaffordable" under current budget conditions (with 77 million baby boomers beginning their retirement four years from now) should wake up and take some perspectivecorrecting medication. Nothing is affordable under current budget conditions. That's an argument for fixing entitlements rather than for giving up on the progress of humanity.

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IMMIGRATION POLITICAL CAPITAL KEY BUSH MUST SPEND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO GET IMMIGRATION REFORM PASSED. INTELLIGENCER JOURNAL (LANCASTER, PA.), January 14, 2004, Wednesday, SECTION: A, Pg. 10 The proposal will face a tough road in Congress. Conservatives blanch because Bushs reform rewards certain illegal aliens for breaking our laws. Liberal objection is more scattered, ranging from the plans not going far enough to disliking it simply because it came from Bush. Time will tell whether the president is willing to devote political capital to getting his proposal passed. We hope his experience in Texas reminds him that this is a real problem that must be fixed. Well have to see the final legislation before we can support it as federal policy. But sometimes good politics also are good policy. This may be such a case.

IMMIGRATION REFORM CAN ONLY PASS WITH A LARGE EXPENDITURE OF POLITICAL CAPITAL BY BUSH. Helen Dewar, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, January 11, 2004 Sunday, Final Edition, A06 Only if Bush lobbies fervently for the proposal -- and is willing to expend some political capital during his campaign -- does it stand a chance of passage before the November elections, several congressional sources suggested in interviews last week. A more likely scenario, according to immigration strategists, is that one or both chambers may begin work on the proposal, but votes would be deferred. "I would anticipate some very interesting hearings on the issue and some important preliminary action, but no action on the House and Senate floors until 2005," said Randel Johnson, a vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which favors the Bush proposal. "Immigration reform is never easy," and this will be no exception, said Cecilia Mun~oz, vice president for policy with the National Council of La Raza, the nation's largest Hispanic civil rights group. "It all depends on how much political capital that Bush is prepared to invest in it." Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who sponsored a broader proposal but spoke favorably of Bush's initiative, also said that a major presidential push -- including a demand for action by August in next week's State of the Union message -- is essential for passage this year. "The administration sets the agenda," he said.

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BUSH PUSH KEY THERE IS STRONG OPPOSITION BUT BUSH CAN MOVE THE MCCAIN-FLAKE BILL IF HE PUSHES IT. Geoff Earle, January 14, 2004, THE HILL, URL: http://thehill.com/news/011404/hagel.aspx Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), another GOP maverick, already has put forward a bill, containing two new visa programs, for temporary workers and illegal immigrants. The measure is backed by GOP Reps. Jim Kolbe and Jeff Flake of Arizona, a state where many Mexican migrants enter the United States to seek work. Flake was at the White House when the president outlined his plan -- a sign that the administration approves of the effort. One GOP aide working on immigration was pessimistic that Congress could act. "To be very honest, not much is going to happen this year," said the aide. "It's an election year. It's a very difficult topic for members on all sides of the political spectrum. It's really divisive in the parties." The odds look particularly long in the House, where extending benefits to illegal immigrants would face outright opposition. A spokesman for House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) said provisions that "seem to reward illegal behaviors" are "not going to generate much enthusiasm on the House side." But he praised the bill's basic premise and its enforcement provisions. Nevertheless, Congress will deal with immigration if Bush presses for action. The Senate Judiciary Committee could hold hearings in February, aides said. Since the administration proposal is so far only an outline, any existing bill could become the basis for final legislation, or another GOP member could introduce what becomes the administration bill.

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BUSH WON'T SPEND POL CAP ON IMMIGRATION OR SPACE BUSH WON'T SPEND POLITICAL CAPITAL ON IMMIGRATION OR SPACE. The Commercial Appeal (Memphis, TN), January 10, 2004 Saturday Final Edition, Pg. A5 President Bush's space plans, spending and immigration policy are alarming some of his conservative supporters who wonder how a nation with record budget deficits and an expensive war on terrorism will find the money. Few expect the White House to expend much political capital in pushing for the new measures to become reality. Thomas Mann of the liberal Brookings Institution sees Bush's proposals as election-year window dressing. "It's all about setting the agenda, being seen as the activist president and doing it in a way that he figures he can get political advantage simply from proposing items," said Mann.

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TOUGH FIGHT TOUGH FIGHT--BUSH IS COMMITTED. Matthew Cooper, Time Magazine, January 19, 2004, Pg. 18 --WILL IT PASS? It will be tough. Congress appears closely divided. Some Latino groups and labor supporters think it doesn't go far enough in helping immigrants, while conservatives complain that it is rewarding illegal activity. There are also questions about how hard President Bush will push for it, since the fight could be messy. Advisers insist that Bush is committed to this plan. "He knows this issue from Texas," says an aide. "He's always asking how this plan will help the guy in West Texas picking cotton." He also knows that he may get credit with some voters for the big gesture, even if it produces only an initial round of big headlines.

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BUSH HAS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT BUSH HAS CONSERVATIVE BACKING ON IMMIGRATION--FIGHT WILL BE POLICY, NOT POLITICS. Cesar Conda, served as Vice President Dick Cheney's domestic policy adviser, board member of Empower America AND Stuart Anderson, former staff director of the Senate Immigration Subcommittee, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, The Weekly Standard, January 19, 2004, Monday, Vol. 9; No. 18 THE POLITICS for the administration are complicated but not daunting. Critics say the president is proposing immigration reform for political reasons and at the same time argue that most Americans oppose it. Both can't be true. In fact, President Bush started working on this issue as early as February 2001 and neared completion of a proposal prior to the September 11 attacks, which delayed consideration of the initiative. Moreover, the polling data on this issue are so ambiguous that no one can say it's a clear votegetter, even among Hispanics. Despite the cynicism that greets almost any proposal emanating from Washington, one should not discount the most obvious explanation for the initiative: The president believes it's good for the country. Another political wrinkle: While the proposal is said to upset the president's ideological base, in fact, there are many conservative enthusiasts, including senators Larry Craig and John McCain and congressmen Chris Cannon, Jeff Flake, and Jim Kolbe, who have called for a "market-based solution to a market-based problem." Moreover, the business community strongly supports immigration reform, and pro-immigrant groups like the National Immigration Forum have made positive statements. This will enable the administration to make the Democrats play policy, not politics--or face public criticism from pro-immigrant groups.

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BASE HATES AMNESTY CONSERVATIVE BASE HATES AMNESTY. Mark Krikorian, executive director of the "Center for Immigration Studies," a leading nativist group, National Review, January 26, 2004, Monday To go back to the original question: What are they thinking? The administration is populated by smart, public-spirited men and women; how have they come to support such nonsense? The proximate reason is politics, with the quest for a larger share of the Hispanic vote clouding the judgment of otherwise sensible people. Though its importance is wildly exaggerated, the effort to win more Hispanic votes isn't a bad idea; it's just that this isn't the way to do it. The Hispanic voters most likely to back Republicans are the very law-and-order, God-and-country traditionalists who are left cold by talk of amnesty. A Zogby poll conducted shortly before 9/11 found Hispanics evenly split on amnesty. In fact, twice as many Hispanics in the survey said support for amnesty would make them less likely to vote for the president as said it would make them more likely to support him. And when it came to congressional elections, support for amnesty would lose four Hispanic votes for each one gained. Even more important politically, of course, is the fact that amnesty is poison to the president's conservative base. In fact, there are few policies more likely to hurt Republican prospects. The same Zogby poll found conservatives opposing amnesty 2-to-1, with about onethird of the total saying they would actually be less likely to vote for the president if he supported an amnesty.

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WILL BE ALTERED EVEN IF IMMIGRATION REFORM PASSES, IT WON'T LOOK ANYTHING LIKE WHAT BUSH PROPOSED. Stephen Dinan, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, The Washington Times, January 12, 2004, Monday, Final Edition, Pg. A03 When President Bush laid out his principles on a major policy initiative in the past, he often ended up signing a bill that left out key parts of what he had requested, or that compromised on basic issues. On Wednesday, Mr. Bush announced his principles for a new immigration policy that would allow the estimated 8 million to 12 million illegal aliens in the United States to apply for guest-worker status if they can find willing employers. He also said he wants to increase the level of legal immigration, and would let those in the guest-worker program apply for legal permanent residence. But on other major initiatives where Mr. Bush had made a grand presentation of principles, he abandoned key parts by the time he signed legislation. He accepted an education reform bill in 2001 even though it lacked the vouchers he had demanded. He also endorsed the pending energy bill though it lacked provisions to explore for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. In 2002, on campaign finance reform, even as he was signing the bill, he said it might not be constitutional. And last year he signed a $400 billion Medicare overhaul even though conservative critics said it did nothing to enhance the long-term financial stability of the program, as Mr. Bush initially had insisted. "The No Child Left Behind Act sort of set the template for this - it starts off with the birds and the bees and the fluffy white clouds, and by the time it's done, you've got stuff that makes a French porno director look away," said Michael McKenna, a Republican strategist.

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WON'T PASS LACK OF CONSENSUS MEANS IMMIGRATION REFORM WON'T PASS THE HOUSE. Stephen Dinan, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, The Washington Times, January 12, 2004, Monday, Final Edition, Pg. A03 Still, a Senate Republican aide who is monitoring the immigration debate said the president started far enough away from a full amnesty that it leaves him room to negotiate without having to give in and accept amnesty. Rep. Tom Tancredo, Colorado Republican and chairman of the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus, said the politics of immigration differ from such issues as education, campaign finance reform and Medicare. "For every one of those three proposals, there was a broad-based support for the way to go," he said. "You don't have that kind of thing on this issue." Because of that, he said, he expects Mr. Bush will not put the sort of effort into passing an immigration bill that he did for education and Medicare reforms. Mr. Kent said he also doesn't think broad legislation will pass the House, but sees a political danger for the president already. "I think a Democratic presidential candidate, even if he's liberal on a lot of things, I think he could effectively flank and hurt [Mr. Bush] in several key states," Mr. Kent said, adding that Mr. Bush risks alienating his base.

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IMMIGRATION REFORM SAVES THE GOP BUSH'S IMMIGRATION REFORM REACHES OUT TO HISPANICS AND WILL SAVE THE GOP. Dick Morris, January 14, 2004, THE HILL, URL: http://thehill.com/morris/011404.aspx President Bush's dramatic proposals to legitimize millions of formerly illegal residents of the United States not only reflects an elemental sense of social justice but a brilliant political move. His suggestion will affect the Hispanic community with drama and force and likely will create a political shift akin to that engendered by the 1964-65 civil rights bills that brought massive black support to the Democratic Party. Bush has grasped the fundamental reality of American politics -- that a demographic time bomb was ticking beneath the Republican Party, gradually converting "red" states to "blue," sapping the vitality from the GOP political base. After decades of pushing English-only, anti-bilingual and anti-immigrant-aid initiatives, the Republican Party was perceived by Hispanic voters as racist and Anglo-centered. But by his proposal, Bush has reversed the field and shown a sensitivity to the needs of the Hispanic community that may well reverse the heretofore inevitable demographic trend and save the future of his party.

BUSH'S IMMIGRATION REFORM WILL SAVE THE GOP FROM OTHERWISE CERTAIN EXTINCTION. Dick Morris, January 14, 2004, THE HILL, URL: http://thehill.com/morris/011404.aspx The Republican Party is running out of white people. The demographic time bomb threatens to implode its electoral future. The simple fact is that the party cannot continue to concede 90 percent of a growing black vote and two-thirds of a Hispanic vote that totals 1 percent more of the national vote each year. Reversing this demographic trend is vital to the maintenance of the Republican Party's electoral viability. Purists in the GOP have to decide whether they want to be America's second party or only its third. Unless the Republicans adjust to the demographic realities that are engulfing California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and many other states in between, they risk fading from the center stage of our national politics. Pat Buchanan's formula of ethnic purity represents nothing more than a pathway to extinction. In the United States, with our polyglot society, it is not economic but demographic changes that threaten political parties. Bush deserves credit and support for understanding the nature of the political threat and the substantive, moral imperatives and acting accordingly. Bravo.

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MISCELLANY PRICES ARE STABLE PRICES ARE STABLE--NO RISK OF DEFLATION AND INFLATION PRESSURES ARE SUBDUED. JON E. HILSENRSATH, Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, January 15, 2004, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107408700730701500,00.html The government's latest inflation figures showed that the risk of deflation, or persistently falling prices, has subsided in recent months. Wholesale prices were up 4% in December from a year earlier, largely because of increases in energy prices. With food and energy prices excluded, prices were up 0.9% in December from a year earlier, after registering declines early last year. Yet manufacturers have been severely limited in their ability to pass on sharp increases in raw-materials prices. Input prices on materials ranging from natural gas to wastepaper to iron have each risen by 8% or more in the past 12 months. However, output prices on products ranging from cars to footwear to paper machines have each risen by less than 2%. This puts some pressure on profit margins. But David Greenlaw, an economist with Morgan Stanley, said that many manufacturers have been able to offset this squeeze by keeping a tight grip on labor costs, which are a much bigger component of their overall cost structures. He added the inability to raise prices means "the focus on efficiency gains and cost cutting, and trying to focus on the cost side of the equation, will continue." Underscoring that point, the Fed's beige-book report noted that "wage pressures remained generally subdued."

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ECONOMY STRONG ECONOMY IS STRONG AND NO INFLATION IS EMERGING. JON E. HILSENRSATH, Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, January 15, 2004, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107408700730701500,00.html In a generally upbeat assessment of the economy's performance in recent weeks, the U.S. Federal Reserve said anecdotal reports from its 12 district banks showed that the nation's economy is continuing to improve, and that holiday sales were "positive across the country." The Fed report, known as the "beige book," also said that prices charged by retailers and manufacturers were "generally steady," despite increases in raw-materials costs. The point seemed to suggest that Fed officials believe inflation remains tame enough to keep interest rates low for now. The Fed's next policy meeting is Jan. 27 and 28. Touching on a similar point, the Labor Department said in a separate report that producer prices, which are the prices charged by manufacturers, increased in December after declining the month before. But there were few signs in the price index that the improving economy had given manufacturers much leverage to raise prices.

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TRADE DEFICIT DOWN TRADE DEFICIT NARROWED--DOLLAR IS UP. NEIL KING JR., Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, January 15, 2004, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107412834410311700,00.html The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to its lowest level in a year, in what some analysts said may be a lasting improvement in the U.S. trade picture. The Commerce Department reported that total exports of U.S. goods and services rose to $90.63 billion in November, the highest level in three years and up 2.9% from October. The gain underlines increasing signs of improved competitiveness in the U.S. economy and rising demand for U.S. exports, which have increased by about $2 billion every month since July. The trade report helped fuel the dollar's rise against the euro Wednesday and push up U.S. stock prices. Total U.S. imports came in at $128.64 billion in November for a deficit of $38 billion, $3.6 billion narrower than October. Analysts had predicted the November gap would hit $42 billion. Much of the shift came on the strength of a large jump in U.S. aircraft sales and a $700 million drop in U.S. crude-oil purchases from abroad. Exports of U.S. consumer goods rose $550 million, while sales of farm products were up by $357 million.

IMPORTS ARE DOWN, INCLUDING FROM CHINA, AND TRADE GAP WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW. NEIL KING JR., Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, January 15, 2004, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107412834410311700,00.html A report from Insight Economics, an independent economic-research company in Danville, Calif., predicted a consistently narrowing trade deficit by the end of 2004, while noting that to achieve a sustained narrowing of the trade gap, U.S. exports will have to outpace the rate of growth in imports by more than 50%. In an unusual turn, imports from China were $14.14 billion in November, down $2.2 billion from the monthly high in October. U.S. exports to China rose slightly in November to a record $3.32 billion. The U.S. is now running an overall deficit with China for 2003 of $114 billion, compared with $101 billion in 2002. The U.S. also clocked improved exports for the month to most countries in Asia, while overall imports from so-called Pacific Rim countries, including Australia and New Zealand, fell by $4.55 billion to $36.68 billion in November. The surging euro appears to have put a dent in European Union exports to the U.S., which rose through much of the year but dropped in November by $1.5 billion. European officials have begun to worry in recent weeks that the euro's rise against the dollar could weaken the demand for European exports.

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BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICIES WORKED DON'T BELIEVE THE BLUSTER--BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICIES HAVE BEEN A STUNNING EMPIRICAL SUCCESS. JAMES J. CRAMER, host of CNBC's "Kudlow & Cramer" and a commentator for TheStreet.com, January 15, 2004, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107412903417894600,00.html To listen to the critics of President Bush's economic policies, you'd think that the nation's on the brink of economic catastrophe. Not a single Democratic candidate is willing to accept, even for a moment, that the president might be on the right economic track with large deficit spending and lower income and investment taxes. Now Paul O'Neill, arguably the worst Treasury secretary in memory, fills the airwaves with prideful attacks on the administration for reckless spending and reckless tax cuts that produced disastrous deficits. Wait a second. I'm a Democrat, one who helped raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for Democratic candidates nationally in the last two decades. I voted for Al Gore. But I'm also an objective financial commentator. With stocks at two-year highs and interest rates, as represented by the 10-year treasury, hovering near all-time lows, I can't help reach a different conclusion from Mr. Bush's critics: The economic policies pursued by this president have been a stunning empirical success. If you'd told me two years ago, in the wake of 9/11 and the collapse of the stock bubble, that we could have 8% GDP growth, I'd have laughed. Most commentators, even the optimistic ones, were worried about the U.S. repeating Japan's post-bubble-incredible-shrinking-GDP-depression-experience. If you'd told me we could have 8% GDP growth and long-term rates at 4%, I'd have said that such a combination was impossibly Pollyannaish, a proverbial smooth concoction of oil and water. And if you'd told me that we could have a robust stock market, with a broad array of 52-week highs in dozens of sectors, I'd have told you that you were dreaming. Not after the battering this country's equities had taken. Yet that's exactly what we have right now. I'd give the critics their due if 10-year rates had spiked to 6% or even 5%, something they privately assured you'd have had to have happen by now. I'd also bless the naysayers if the Dow were still at 7500, and the Nasdaq were still mired in the 1300-1400s, their residences a year ago. But for crying out loud, you can sell billions of dollars in bonds or stocks at these great prices, and that's evidence enough for this grizzled trader that the U.S. is booming without inflation. Of course, we don't yet have job growth. However, economic recoveries don't traditionally produce job growth until one year after interest rates bottom. That means March of 2004. From my perch, discussing hiring plans with dozens of companies in industries as varied as smokestackers, financials and tech, we're right on schedule for robust job creation. So, critics, keep baying against the policies. Keep calling for higher taxes or fiscal responsibility. But as someone who's stuck looking at the daily scorecard as represented by the impossible-to-manipulate markets themselves, the judgment's already in: The Bush economic policies have worked beyond what anyone could have hoped for. Or, to put it in parlance my party might understand, This time it's not the economy, stupid.

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BASE DOESN'T LIKE HEALTHY MARRIAGE CONSERVATIVES ARE NOT SATISFIED BY BUSH'S MARRIAGE PLAN. DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, January 15, 2004, NEW YORK TIMES, URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/15/politics/15MARR.html?ex=1074747600&en=14b7f 5d92ac6a7da&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE Some major conservative Christian groups said yesterday that they were pleased but not satisfied by a new White House initiative to promote marriage, and they stepped up pressure on President Bush to champion a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage in his State of the Union speech next week. "This is like lobbing a snowball at a forest fire," said Sandy Rios, president of Concerned Women of America, one of the largest conservative Christian advocacy groups. "This administration is dancing dangerously around the issue of homosexual marriage." The conservative Christians' insistence on an amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage may put President Bush in a political bind as he starts his re-election campaign, caught between wooing potential swing voters and turning out his core evangelical supporters. Some conservative strategists warn that pushing to amend the Constitution to prohibit same-sex unions could turn off some potential Republican voters like suburban women, who might find excessive talk about the perils of same-sex marriage as intolerant, mean-spirited or weirdly obsessive.

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POLITICAL CAPITAL ON HEALTHY MARRIAGE KEY TO BASE BUSH MUST SPEND POLITICAL CAPITAL ON MARRIAGE PROMOTION TO ENSURE BASE TURNOUT. DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, January 15, 2004, NEW YORK TIMES, URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/15/politics/15MARR.html?ex=1074747600&en=14b7f 5d92ac6a7da&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE Several prominent evangelicals said their concerns were not assuaged by a report that the White House was planning a $1.5 billion initiative to promote marriage. Gary L. Bauer, who ran on a traditional-values platform in the Republican primaries in 2000 and is now president of the conservative group American Values, said, "If the White House puts this on the back burner or doesn't put political capital into it, that would deeply demoralize a large block of voters that they are expecting to turn out in November." Several conservative Christians involved in the push for an amendment said they saw the State of the Union speech, when President Bush will lay out his agenda for the year, as a pivotal test. "Time is running out but the clock is still ticking," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council.

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HEALTHY MARRIAGE SOLIDIFIES THE BASE BUSH'S MARRIAGE PROMOTION PACKAGE WILL SOLIDIFY THE BASE. Gary Younge in New York, The Guardian (London), January 15, 2004, SECTION: Guardian Foreign Pages, Pg. 15 President George Bush plans to announce a Dollars 1.5bn programme to promote heterosexual marriage before the next election in an attempt to shore up his conservative base against the legal advances of gay rights campaigners. The plan, which may be included in his State of the Union address next week, is to help low-income couples with their interpersonal skills and publicise the value of marriage. "This is a way for the president to address the concerns of conservatives and to solidify his conservative base," a presidential adviser told the New York Times. A year of rulings on same-sex relationships could make gay rights the touchstone issue in the forthcoming election. In June the supreme court declared the anti-sodomy laws applied by some states unconstitutional, effectively making consensual sex between gay couples legal.

CONSERVATIVES LOVE BUSH FOR THE HEALTHY MARRIAGE INITIATIVE. ROBERT PEAR and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, The New York Times, January 14, 2004, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Section A; Page 1; Column 1 Administration officials say they are planning an extensive election-year initiative to promote marriage, especially among low-income couples, and they are weighing whether President Bush should promote the plan next week in his State of the Union address. For months, administration officials have worked with conservative groups on the proposal, which would provide at least $1.5 billion for training to help couples develop interpersonal skills that sustain "healthy marriages." The officials said they believed that the measure was especially timely because they were facing pressure from conservatives eager to see the federal government defend traditional marriage, after a decision by the highest court in Massachusetts. The court ruled in November that gay couples had a right to marry under the state's Constitution. "This is a way for the president to address the concerns of conservatives and to solidify his conservative base," a presidential adviser said. Several conservative Christian advocacy groups are pressing Mr. Bush to go further and use the State of the Union address to champion a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage. Leaders of these groups said they were confused by what they saw as the administration's hedging and hesitation concerning an amendment. Administration officials said they did not know if Mr. Bush would mention the amendment, but they expressed confidence that his marriage promotion plan would please conservatives. Ronald T. Haskins, a Republican who has previously worked on Capitol Hill and at the White House under Mr. Bush, said, "A lot of conservatives are very pleased with the healthy marriage initiative." The proposal is the type of relatively inexpensive but politically potent initiative that appeals to White House officials at a time when they are squeezed by growing federal budget deficits.

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BASE IS LOCKED DOWN BUSH HAS GOT HIS BASE LOCKED DOWN. Wayne Washington, Globe Staff, The Boston Globe, January 9, 2004, Friday ,THIRD EDITION, Pg. A1 As the 2004 presidential campaign year officially kicks off, all this raises the critical question of whether Bush can keep the base of his party excited - a factor his own strategist has called the key to his reelection. Bush's top political adviser, Karl Rove, has often fretted about the millions of evangelical Christians who sat out the 2000 election, perhaps turned off by his decision to emphasize the "compassionate" side of his agenda over the conservative one. Political analysts say issues such as the president's immigration policy and escalating federal spending are festering in some conservative minds - and could seriously hurt Bush if, taken together, they erode turnout among key conservative blocs on Election Day. "They're not going to vote Democratic," said Karlyn H. Bowman, a polling specialist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C. "Staying home in a close election is what the Republicans would be worried about." Right now, polls indicate that more than 90 percent of people who identify themselves as conservative back Bush. The president's conservative base has been firmed up by patriotic identification with the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the cuts in income-tax rates, and Bush's embrace of some key aspects of the evangelical Christian social agenda, including enacting a ban on the procedure conservatives call "partial-birth" abortion. Many conservatives say Bush has done a good enough job responding to their key positions that it would take more than a few variances for him to lose the support of his base. Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, said of immigration, "It's not a vote-moving issue for any bloc of the center-right coalition. People vote on guns. They vote on taxes. They vote on being prolife."

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BUSH ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE BASE PLAYING TO THE BASE ALWAYS TRUMPS POLICY CONSIDERATIONS FOR BUSH. Paul Krugman, The International Herald Tribune, January 14, 2004 Wednesday, OPINION; Pg. 6 People are saying terrible things about George Bush. They say that his officials werent sincere about pledges to balance the budget. They say that planning for an invasion of Iraq began seven months before 9/11, that there was never any good evidence that Iraq was a threat and that the war actually undermined the fight against terrorism. But these irrational Bush haters are body-piercing, Hollywood-loving, left-wing freaks who should go back where they came from: the executive offices of Alcoa, and the halls of the Army War College. I was one of the few commentators who didnt celebrate Paul ONeills appointment as Treasury secretary. And I couldnt understand why, if ONeill was the principled man his friends described, he didnt resign early from an administration that was clearly anything but honest. But now hes showing the courage I missed back then, by giving us an invaluable, scathing insiders picture of the Bush administration. Ron Suskinds new book The Price of Loyalty is based largely on interviews with and materials supplied by ONeill. It portrays an administration in which political considerations satisfying the base trump policy analysis on every issue, from tax cuts to international trade policy and global warming. The money quote may be Dick Cheneys blithe declaration that Reagan proved deficits dont matter. But there are many other revelations. One is that ONeill and Alan Greenspan knew that it was a mistake to lock in huge tax cuts based on questionable projections of future surpluses. In May 2001 Greenspan gloomily told ONeill that because the first Bush tax cut didnt include triggers it went forward regardless of how the budget turned out it was irresponsible fiscal policy. This was a time when critics of the tax cut were ridiculed for saying exactly the same thing.

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GOP IS UNITED, DEMS DIVIDED GOP IS UNIFIES BUT DEMS ARE SPLINTERED ON KEY FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC ISSUES. David Brooks, New York Times columnist, Long Beach Press-Telegram (Long Beach, CA), January 14, 2004 Wednesday In 2000, the American electorate was evenly divided. Now, as we enter another voting season, the Gallup Organization has released a study, based on 40,000 interviews, that shows that 45.5 percent of voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and 45.2 percent identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. So is that it? After Sept. 11, the Iraq war and the Madonna-Britney kiss, could it really be that we are back to where we started? Since 2000, tens of millions of people have moved, divorced and converted; can it really be that everything in America changes except politics? Yes and no. Yes, the political divides today do look a lot like the ones that split the nation in 2000. But no. When you look beneath the headline data, you see at least one important change. The events of the past three years have brought to the foreground issues that divide Democrats, and pushed to the background issues that divide Republicans. The first result is that the Republican Party is more unified than ever before. Ninety-one percent of Republicans approve of the job President Bush is doing. In 1992, Bush's father didn't have anything like that level of support, and even the Reagan administration was split between so-called pragmatists and ideologues. Today's Republicans not only like Bush personally, they also overwhelmingly support his policies. According to a Pew Center study, 85 percent of Republicans support the war in Iraq, 82 percent believe that pre-emptive war is justified, and 72 percent believe the United States is justified in holding terror suspects without trial. The Democrats, meanwhile, are divided on all these issues. According to the same Pew survey, 54 percent of Democrats oppose the war in Iraq, but 39 percent support it. Forty-four percent of Democrats oppose the pre-emptive war doctrine, but 52 percent support it. Forty-seven percent of Democrats oppose holding terror suspects without trial, but 46 percent are in favor. Liberals have all the passion these days. They dominate campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire, but they have not won over half the voters in their own party. The Democrats are also divided on major domestic issues. The Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg surveyed Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Democrats there were split on NAFTA and gay marriage and on whether to roll back all the Bush tax cuts.

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UNITY GIVES GOP HUGE ELECTORAL ADVANTAGE GOP UNITY AND DEM FISSURES GIVE BUSH A MASSIVE ELECTORAL EDGE. David Brooks, New York Times columnist, Long Beach Press-Telegram (Long Beach, CA), January 14, 2004 Wednesday The biggest divide among Democrats is metaphysical. Some portion of the party, led by Howard Dean, is so disgusted by Republicans that it does not believe it is possible to work with such people. Meanwhile, others, including Dick Gephardt, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton, accept that Republicans are in power, are willing to work with them and take a starkly different approach to politics. This situation Republican unity and Democratic fissures means that the Democratic vote is less cohesive than the GOP vote, at least on the presidential level. In a Bush-Dean matchup, 20 percent of Democrats would vote for Bush, according to a CBS poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean. Overall, Bush leads Dean by 20 points. And in Iowa and New Hampshire, swing states where voters know both candidates well, Bush is up by significant margins. In other words, at least at the moment, Bush has crashed through the 45/45 partisan divide. He is a polarizing figure, but there are many more people who support him than oppose him. And this support is not merely personal; it is built into the issue landscape. According to an ABC/Washington Post poll, 57 percent of Americans say they are more likely to support a candidate who supported going to war in Iraq, while only 35 percent say they would be less likely. According to Pew, 59 percent believe that the war in Iraq has helped in the broader war on terror. All of this means two things. First, as we dive into this period of intense Democratic primary competition, it's worth keeping in mind that Democratic primary voters are a misleading snapshot of the electorate as a whole. Second, while the nation remains closely divided overall, and gravitational pressures will cause the general election to tighten, it is wrong to think that the electorate is fixed. There are millions of people who may lean toward one party or another but who can be persuaded to support either presidential candidate. At the moment, many are supporting Bush.

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ELECTION IS A TOSSUP DESPITE EARLY INDICATIONS OF BUSH EDGE, BUSH CAMPAIGN KNOWS IT'S A TOSSUP. Morton M. Kondracke, Roll Call, January 12, 2004 Monday All sorts of current numbers suggest that President Bush should win this year's election in a landslide, but he and his re-election campaign are acting as though America is still a "50-50 nation." Bush is basking in boffo poll numbers, economic statistics and fundraising results, but he's again playing the "compassionate conservative" to appeal to moderates and Latinos. And his campaign is organizing as though it fears a rerun of the 2000 near-tie. Last week's Gallup poll showed Bush's national approval rating up to 60 percent, while 55 percent think the country is on the "right track." Fifty-four percent approve of his handling of the economy, which every indicator suggests is improving rapidly, and 61 percent support his policies on Iraq, where the rate of attacks on U.S. forces is down since the capture of Saddam Hussein. In Gallup's trial run, Bush beats an unnamed "generic" Democratic opponent among likely voters by a whopping 56 percent to 40 percent. And he beats Democratic frontrunner Howard Dean by 57 percent to 37 percent. Yet, top officials at the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign say that "from a historical perspective, we expect to be behind the Democratic nominee at two key points - when the nominee is chosen in March and again after the Democratic convention" in July. A top strategist at the Bush campaign told me that he thinks the president could win the election by 52 percent to 48 percent - but not by more, given the evenly divided U.S. political landscape, and only by running scared. "Is this a 50-50 country? Absolutely," said another top Bush campaign official. "If we weren't going into this thinking that, would we have spent the Christmas break a year before the election working on training sessions for 10,000 county chairs and precinct leaders?

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BUSH STRAT IS TO BUY SWING VOTES BUSH'S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY IS TO BUY SWING VOTES WITH FAVORABLE POLICIES. Morton M. Kondracke, Roll Call, January 12, 2004 Monday Bush campaign strategists say they basically agree with the theory advanced in Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg's new book, "The Two Americas" - that Republicans are in a position to score election victories in this closely divided nation by an "incremental approach," turning out the conservative GOP base and reaching out to swing voters. Greenberg argues that because the GOP now controls the White House, Congress and a majority of state governorships and legislatures, it's in a position to use its power to "buy" swing constituencies. He asserts this was the motivation behind Bush's temporary steel import quotas, his signing an exorbitantly expensive farm bill and his supporting a $400 billion Medicare prescription drug bill.

A DEAN WIN WOULD BE A HISTORIC TURNING POINT AND CRUSH THE GOP. John Podhoretz, The New York Post, January 13, 2004, Tuesday, Pg. 027 A Dean victory would be a watershed because it would be seen as a national rejection of the hard-charging Bush-GOP approach to governance. Dean would ascend to the Oval Office having sworn to raise taxes - ending the doctrine in place since 1984 that says nobody can win an election by promising to increase the American tax burden. And (far more important) Dean's election would be seen as decisive repudiation of Bush's approach to the War on Terror. His victory would bring an end to the Republicans' unquestioned 35-year dominance on the question of which party does a better job of keeping America safe and strong. Dean would have beaten a sitting president in the midst of an economic recovery and after victory in two wars. Even if he wins by only 930 votes, as Bush did in 2000, there will be no arguing the point. The Bush administration and the GOP Congress have put it all on the line these past years - from the tough line in the War on Terror to the tax cuts to the Big Government solutions on health care and education. A loss would destroy Republican self-confidence and indicate that the American people are eager for a different kind of governing ideology.

A BUSH LANDSLIDE WOULD CRUSH THE DEMS AND LOCK IN GOP DOMINANCE. John Podhoretz, The New York Post, January 13, 2004, Tuesday, Pg. 027 A razor-thin Bush win wouldn't mean anything near as much as a razor-thin Dean victory. The president is the front-runner by a 20-point margin right now; if he merely prevails in November by a point or two, he'd only be getting a passing grade from the American people - not a ringing mandate. But if the president wins in a landslide - by eight points or more - then the November election will be the undoing of the present-day Democratic Party. Such a victory would almost certainly ensure that the Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate would grow. Americans would be making a clear and decisive ideological choice - not only embracing the president and his agenda, but tossing Howard and the Deaniacs onto the ash heap of history.

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BRIAN MITCHELL, Investor's Business Daily, January 14, 2004 Wednesday, Pg. A01 Americans continued to give President Bush higher marks in January as their attitudes about the national outlook improved, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index jumped 4.7 points to 58.8, the highest since last June. It was the index's third straight gain and the biggest since April 2003's Iraq war spike. The improvement was fueled in part by six-point jump among Hispanics, one of the most-watched and courted demographic groups this election year. The IBD/TIPP National Outlook Index also rose, by 3.4 points to a seven-month high of 55.3. "As he goes to give his State of the Union address next week, Bush enjoys solid approval ratings with Americans who feel that the country is headed in the right direction and expecting a great economy in 2004," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner. "All six components of the National Outlook Index moved up handsomely," Mayur said. "The U.S. standing in the world scored the biggest percentage improvement, gaining 9.4%. The capture of Saddam Hussein, Libya's admission and reduction in troop casualties since Saddam's capture are all contributing to the boost." Two components topped 60. Economic optimism rose 1.5 to 60.6, a 22-month high. And quality of life rose 3.3 points to 63.1, the highest since Bush took office. Direction of the country rose 4.3 to 55.9, a seven-month high. Only one of the six components -- moral and ethics -- is still below 50. But it rose 1.4 points to 39.9. The presidential leadership index peaked at 69.4 in April on the wings of victory in Iraq. But a six-month slide left it at 53.5 in October, Bush's lowest rating ever. The leadership index is made of three components. All three rose strongly in January. Bush's favorability rating rose the most. It jumped 5.7 points to 57, a six-month high. His job approval rating rose 4.5 points to 57.6, a five-month high. His leadership rating rose 3.8 points to 61.8, a six-month high.

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O'NEILL WON'T HURT BUSH PAUL O'NEILL IS A TWO DAY STORY--NO IMPACT ON BUSH. Linda Feldmann Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, January 14, 2004, Wednesday, Pg. 01 David Stockman, President Reagan's budget director, may be the best recent analogy to O'Neill. Mr. Stockman took his post as a true believer in supply-side economics, but grew disillusioned at his inability to cut the budget and prevent growing deficits. He departed the administration soon after he granted a tellall interview to journalist William Greider in The Atlantic Monthly. Five years later, he put out his memoirs, expressing (like O'Neill) disgust for the political process. But judging by Reagan's ultimate political success - reelection to a second term and a growing legacy as a hero to conservatives - Stockman appears to have gotten the lesser end of the deal. Today, political observers predict the same for O'Neill, particularly if Bush wins reelection. "It's a two-day story," says Jim Campbell, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo. "For Bush supporters, it will be dismissed as sour grapes by someone who was fired from the administration, because he wasn't doing a very effective job in the Cabinet. For people who are Bush detractors, this won't be any news."

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VETO KEY TO FISCAL CONSERVATISM BUSH NEES A VETO TO RE-ESTABLISH FISCAL CONSERVATISM. Janet Hook, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2004 Wednesday, Home Edition, Part A; Pg. 1 Another big change since last year is that simmering discontent with Bush's budget policy among conservatives has come to a rolling boil. They have complained loudly about the growth of spending during Bush's presidency -- almost 24% in three years -- much of it for defense and homeland security. The two straws that broke the conservative back came late last year, when Congress passed a 10-year, $400-billion expansion of Medicare and drafted a year-end spending bill that was packed with billions for special-interest projects. Both Bush and Joshua Bolton, his budget director, have said the administration's aim will be to halve the deficit, which is expected to near $500 billion in 2004, over the next five years. Much of that will come as a result of economic growth, officials have said, but Bush also plans to keep a lid on spending by capping annual appropriations growth at 3% or 4%, sources close to the administration say. "That doesn't sound very radical," said Chris Edwards, a budget analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute, demanding tighter budget restraint. "I guess they've decided they can win the election without us." Administration officials held meetings last month to try to persuade conservative critics that Bush's budget was not spendthrift. Bolton published a column defending Bush's budget record in the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. Bush's biggest test may come not in his budget request but in how much he stands up to Congress to enforce his spending limits. He has yet to veto any legislation since becoming president, and some Republicans have suggested that he veto a bill this year to reestablish his bona fides as a fiscal conservative.

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DEMS LOSE ON TAXES DEMS WILL LOSE ON TAX HIKES. ALAN MURRAY, January 13, 2004, WALL STREET JOURNAL, URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107394948638698100,00.html Watching the Democratic presidential candidates try to wriggle out of White House political strategist Karl Rove's tax trap is painful -- unless, of course, you happen to be Karl Rove. There is no good way to compete against a president with a bottomless bag of tax giveaways. There are only bad ways, and worse ones. Howard Dean took the simple approach -- he proposed repealing all of the tax cuts enacted by President Bush -- and that carried him far. But it won't carry him much further. In a general election, he will be the candidate offering a tax increase for every American who pays income taxes -- a losing platform. So now he is scrambling, talking about a payroll-tax cut but refusing to provide details until after the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire cast their votes. But the season's biggest tax squirms come courtesy of retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Joseph Lieberman. Both claim to be "moderates," concerned about economic growth. Yet both have signed onto "tax reform" plans boosting the top income-tax rate from the current 35% to a near-nosebleed 45%. It isn't hard to see how they got there. Both Messrs. Clark and Lieberman want to advocate middle-class tax cuts. Both are concerned about the growing inequality of income in the U.S. And both are committed to fiscal responsibility. So they paid for their tax cuts by dunning people with more than a million dollars in income -- a group with lots of money but few votes. But raising the top tax rate to 45% is both bad policy and bad politics. As a political matter, one of the charms of American voters is that while few make more than a million dollars a year, many think they might in the future. As a policy matter, marginal tax rates may not be the cure-all that some supply-siders think they are; but they do have an important effect on economic incentives. Moreover, boosting the top tax rate is an open invitation to tax lawyers and investment bankers to devise clever ways to hide clients' income, or transform it into capital gains, which are taxed at 20% under the Clark plan and in some cases even lower under the Lieberman plan.

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