Bulletin No 1

SE Europe (SEE) Public Affairs Bulletin “E” issues continue to dominate regional political context Introduction by Tamara Glisic, Head, Public Affairs, Mmd SEE “E” is the buzz letter across the region. From Economic crises, barriers to EU accession, to the EU elections and equality rights, somehow, it sounds so. Throughout June and early July, the area encompassing the former Yugoslavia, political news has been prolific. Serbia was granted visa-free status from 1 January 2010 in the EU Schengen zone. Croatia lost a prime minister, has new municipal leaders but no progress towards EU accession. Slovenians face the worst recession since independence and declining voter attendance at European elections. And Bosnia’s religious spectrum has never been so united over one issue – opposition to same sex marriages. It seems that politicians are seeking people to blame for the problems, rather than focus on solutions to bring wider stability and prosperity in these already challenging times.

By Danilo Drobnjak, Public Affairs Director, Serbia Local elections in three municipalities A Warning Sign to Central Government After the July 2008 change in central government, the newly struck coalition between Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and Milosevic/Dacic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) necessitated a "new version" of local government in two municipalities in Belgrade and a small town in western Serbia. As a result, SPS councillors in these municipalities helped topple their hitherto coalition partners from the nationalistic Serbian Radical Party and provoked new elections. New local elections were held on June 7, 2009 in the Belgrade municipalities of Vozdovac and Zemun, as well as in the small town of Kosjeric near Užice. Although the outcome of local elections in three (out of a total of 176) municipalities can not be viewed as a representative sample from which far-reaching conclusions relating to the national level can be drawn, the June 7 results are indicative of the political climate in Serbia a year after the last parliamentary election. 1

Poor turnover in Belgrade municipalities testifies, inter alia, to a very low level of confidence citizens have in institutions. Despite powerful campaigns with full participation of central party leaderships and key personalities, voters seem to care less and less for the democratic electoral process: huge economic problems; endemic corruption in all walks of life (especially visible on the communal level in health care, education, judiciary, housing construction and real estate speculation); gross negligence of social welfare issues and vulnerable groups; outdated, inefficient and expensive utilities; catastrophic shape of the infrastructure and other facilities etc, represent questions to which citizens get no timely and viable answers from the elected authorities. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), created after a split in the Serbian Radical Party last year, appears to be the actual winner and the most dangerous rival to the DS. Depending on the DS's ability to keep the current crisis at bay, fight corruption and control the increasing danger of social unrest, the Progressives may capitalise on their growing relevance at the national level. The consolidation of the coalition around Dacic's SPS and its continued establishment as a legitimate political factor whose role in the ruining of Serbia and the 1990s wars waged against Serbia's former “sister republics” is largely forgiven (if not forgotten) and is set to continue. An increasingly sharp division is noted between the DS and SNS, each of them flanked by smaller (ideologically) satellite parties (SPS and Liberals (LDP)) on the left, ex PM Kostunica’s DSS and SRS on the right - this does not necessarily mean that full-fledged alliances on each of these wings are feasible any time soon. This represents a type of polarisation of Serbia's political landscape that Boris Tadic would like to “import” into Serbia and bring about a two-party political scene in a presidential system. The disastrous defeat of the Radicals continues. The strongest individual party until only a year ago, the SRS splintered in October 2008. That the SRS will continue to be the strongest opposition force in the national Parliament on the basis of the last national election results will test the government: how to bridge the gap between the Radicals' nominal strength and actual influence, and minimise their obstruction capacity (and inclinations). The outcome of the local election in three Serbian municipalities represents a serious warning to the ruling coalition in Belgrade. The increasing voting abstentions by the electorate and growing support for right-wing parties reminds us that the political climate in a country torn by economic hardship and insufficient readiness of its political class to embark on serious reform and deliver its promise of Serbia's European future, will continue to be conducive to social division. As a matter of course, human rights, democratic institutions and European standards in public life are the first to fall prey to such development.

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By Spela Bizjak, Public Affairs Consultant, Slovenia 2009 MEP Elections in Slovenia SDS Takes the Lead in the EU Parliament

Unofficial* results of EU elections in Slovenia SDS (Slovenian Democratic Party)

11% 33%

14%

SD (Social Democrats) NSi (Nova Slovenija) LDS (Liberal Democratic Party)

20%

Zares 22%

*Elections repeated in Argentina on July 5th 2009. Election turnout: 27.91% (versus 28.3% in 2004) On June 7th 2009 the second election of members for the European Parliament were held in Slovenia. Please find below a summary of the campaign and results. Due to a strike by the Argentinean postal service, 3202 Slovenian expatriates were not able to vote and as a result elections will be organised on July 5th in that country. Therefore, at this stage, the Slovenian vote remains to be formally ratified. The final number of elected MePs per party could not change. The only change that could happen concerns the elected MePs from SDS. With a preferential voting system in place, every voter had the chance to vote for a party, as well as the specific candidate they wished to see elected. The most popular candidate was Milan Zver from the SDS – Slovenian Democratic Party, party with 16.3 of the vote, followed by Lojze Peterle, present member of the EU parliament representing the NSi - New Slovenia party, and Matej Lahovnik, present Minister for Economy and member of the governing “Zares” party.

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Pre-election campaign Pre-election campaign was quite different as the campaign for the national Parliament. Media reports of political parties’ campaigns were significantly less intensive when compared with the last national elections. At the same time electioneering by political parties was of a much lower profile and discussed mainly domestic issues. Candidates for MEPs were travelling around the country, but even the interest of the citizens was very low. Two other issues became clear during the campaign. The leading position party SD would be the looser of this election and expected turnout would be low, around 30%. The reasons for the low turnout saying that the two track system on which the EU is operating is a cause of distrust. On one hand the EU is a highly integrated organisation with political fusion as its primary goal and on the other hand it remains an intergovernmental organisation. The EU cannot operate without intergovernmental compromises. Until issues resulting from the two track system are resolved, there will remain low interest among voters to participate in the European parliamentary process. ELECTION ANALYSIS Turnout Turnout was higher in the “old” EU member states and lower in the recent accession countries like Slovenia. Understanding the sentiments of Slovenians towards EU believe that the low election turnout is connected to low interest in European matters, common mistrust towards politicians and recent scandals in Slovenian internal politics. Slovenian voters do not understand how the EU apparatus works and do not know which EU legislation is affecting their lives. There are also views that in the current economic climate European institutions are linked to a large and expensive bureaucracy, with extremely high salaries given to Brussels’ bureaucrats and Strasbourg MEPs. Winners and Losers? The results confirmed the pre-election forecasts and reflect the current discontent of Slovenian voters with the day-to-day politics. The winner of this election was the SDS. The SDS received slightly less votes in comparison with the Parliamentary election in September 2008, but still considerably more than the SD. The SD received nearly 33 per cent at the last Parliamentary elections, but due to its slowness to help the Slovenian economy in the crisis and a recent scandal with the Minister for Higher Education, the SD, Government and prime minister are losing public support.

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Moreover, recent vox populi surveys published in daily newspaper Dnevnik on 22nd of June revealed that the Government, PM Pahor and the leading coalition party SD are continuing to lose public support. More than 50% (51.3%) of people believe that the Government is not successful with only 40.4% assess the Government favourably. Despite the success of the SDS party it would be still too early to say that the right wing parties are on the rise again. Besides SDS and the result of NSi, which is based on the profile of one person only the left wing parties were more successful. Interestingly, neither MEP aligned to the SD is actually a member of the party. Zoran Thaler (former Slovenian Minister of Foreign Affairs who signed the Stabilisation and Accession agreement with EU in 1994) has not joined any party since leaving the LDS in 2007 and was active in business sector. Tanja Fajon is one of the most well known Slovenian journalists, has been reporting from Brussels for eight years. SD obviously wanted some fresh blood in the MEP roles. The second largest coalition, the “Zares Party–Nova Politika”, lost a bit of support, mainly due to the scandals affecting President Gregor Golobič just before the elections. Controversy occurred when Zares promoted plans to reform Slovenian politics, condemning tycoons and shortfalls in the privatisation process. However, with ministers discovered in misleading the public and remaining in their roles, it seems that voters were disappointed with fewer participating in the electoral process. On the other parties, in contrast, the LDS – Liberal Democrats of Slovenia, improved its position since the national elections. Its president and Minister of Interior Katarina Kresal has significantly improved her public profile. Lojze Peterle from NSi, one of the most popular Slovenian politicians, achieved the third place in the election, albeit resurgence in the party’s fortunes remains unlikely.

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By Inga Kirchbaumer, Public Affairs Consultant, Croatia Croatia: local elections Ruling HDZ takes 14 counties, fails in major cities Local elections held in May 2009 were the first where Croatian citizens could vote directly for their prefects, mayors and municipal heads. In case no candidate won a majority in the first round that took place on 17 May, the two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote competed in run-offs on 31 May, with a third round of elections taking place on 14 June. Both the largest parties – the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and its main opposition on the state level, the left wing Social Democrats (SDP) claim to be winners. Although the Croatian Democratic Union was expected to lose the elections, due to the difficult economy, and union and student protests, the party managed to secure victory in 14 counties while the Social Democrats (SDP) and partners took five county assemblies, and the Istrian Democratic Party (IDS) one county assembly. Apart from success on the county level, the ruling party did not manage to repeat its success in the cities, losing either in the first or the second round of elections as urban areas voted for opposition parties. Out of the four largest cities, only Rijeka did not see a second round of elections for its mayor, where SDP incumbent Vojko Obersnel won the elections. Zagreb, Split and Osijek, whose citizens have gone to the polls for the fifth time in 12 months, went to the run-offs on 31 May. The date proved lucky for the opposition and independent candidates. Milan Bandic, a Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate overwhelmingly defeated Josip Kregar, an independent candidate, in the second round of the mayoral race in Zagreb. Mr. Bandic starts his fourth consecutive term as Zagreb mayor. Few believe this will bring greater transparency in the Croatian capital’s administration. Putting the HDZ candidate out of the game in the first round, Croatian entrepreneur, local tycoon and independent candidate Zeljko Kerum managed to secure victory over his rival Ranko Ostojic, an SDP candidate. In the largest eastern city in Slavonija, Osijek, Kresimir Bubalo, a candidate of the regional Croatia Democratic Party of Slavonija i Baranja (HDSSB), the Croatian People's Party (HNS) and the Greens also won by a large majority of the votes over his rival from the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) and former mayor Anto Djapic. By loosing local elections Mr. Djapic’s political career became uncertain as he gave his Parliamentary seat to party colleague Daniel Srb.

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The opposition also managed to take control of some of the major bastions of the ruling party in the second and third round including Dubrovnik, Sibenik, Vukovar and Trogir, while the HDZ managed to take Velika Gorica and Sisak. The overall results of local elections in Croatia demonstrated the secure position of the ruling party in rural Croatia; though it failed to secure mayoral positions in any of the major cities. Leaving local elections behind, Croatia turns to presidential elections scheduled for the end of this year. The main political parties are already starting preparations while Croatia faces an uncertain tourism season. All this at the time the country experienced the largest drop in GDP in the past 16 years (6.7 per cent) posted in Q1 2009. ###

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