Brass Tacks Karzai Put Up Or Shutup - Zaid Hamid

BrassTacks Policy Paper

From Pakistan to Karzai – Put Up or Shut Up. The crisis of having an ally as an enemy!

Confidential Material: Not for public distribution, circulation or sale outside the BrassTacks authorized end users. Date: July 10, 2008 © 2008 BrassTacks. All rights reserved. This document is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of BrassTacks. The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However, neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequences arising from the use of the information contained herein. [email protected]

© 2008 BrassTacks. All Rights Reserved

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© 2008 BrassTacks. All rights reserved. This document is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of BrassTacks. The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However, neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequences arising from the use of the information contained herein. [email protected]

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From Pakistan to Karzai – Put Up or Shut Up. Farzana Shah BrassTacks associate analyst “Pakistan needs to do more on war-on-terror”, the irritating sentence is very familiar to Pakistani ears. Its time Pakistan should seriously “do more” even if it is irritating to Karzai. After US attack on Afghanistan back in 2001, Pakistan had to withdraw its support to Taliban, and ever since has been facing security threats due to its policies perceived to be serving US interests more than Pakistan’s own national security needs. Pakistan has been and still is facing severe criticism internally as well as from certain external quarters for its most conspicuous U-turn against the Taliban. The tribal areas of Pakistan since then are faced with growing militancy while the settled areas are also rattled by the militants. Despite deploying about 70,000 soldiers on western border with Afghanistan to fight terrorism and having lost many of its soldiers in this fight, Karzai and NATO most of the time press Pakistan for doing more. The fact remains that Pakistan is not responsible for war and US casualties in Afghanistan. The Afghan economy is now a narco-economy with over $150 bn dollars worth of drugs produced, processed and shipped from Afghanistan. Most of the major government officials, governors and ministers in Karzai government are drug lords. The writ of government still could not be extended beyond Kabul forcing Mr. Karzai to express his frustration by resorting to blame game to hide own weakness. The Bush administration has been faced with sharp criticism at home and abroad over Iraq war where despite investing reportedly about $10 billion a month, US is fast loosing the war. Whereas in Afghanistan, US/NATO forces despite having superior weapons and technology failed to contain the anti-coalition forces. The presence of aliens is viewed as occupation by the common Afghans who are to a large extent now supporting those fighting against US occupation. Coupled with this the killing of large number of innocent Afghan men, women and children every now and then in air strikes is turning public anguish against US presence. In the wake of all these factors US policy -- a set of forlorn wishes seems to boomerang in Afghanistan.

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Taliban are now fighting positional wars with regular fronts in Khost and Kandahar regions. The weapons to Taliban are being supplied, as per more and more intelligence reports, by the Russian and even by Iranian sources. The contribution of Pakistani tribal areas in forging the strategic outcome of the war in Afghanistan is less than 10% from every strategic and military contribution. For all practical purposes, the war is an Afghan problem and is not being controlled or decided from the Pakistani tribal regions. But the Afghan and US game is simple – •

Blame Pakistan for all the sufferings and war in the country.

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Initiate a head-on collision between Pakistani State and Pakistani tribal militants.

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Create rift between armed forces of Pakistan and Pakistani society.

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Create environment for separation of tribal regions into an autonomous new country.

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And leading up to creation of enough chaos and anarchy in Pakistan to justify forced removal of Pakistani nuke assets.

Frustrated by apparent defeat in Iraq, loss of public approval and support in Afghanistan and failure to prove the campaign-fostered illusions that presence of NATO/US forces was aimed at liberating the Afghans, the US and Mr. Karzai seek escape by blaming others for all the ills. Very systematically the local Taliban are infiltrated by the US assets led by Baitullah Mehsud to create hatred against the government and armed forces of Pakistan resulting in many attacks on law enforcement agencies. These US assets in the garb of “Taliban” have succeeded to a great extent to create a divide between the local Taliban and the State. US assets within Pakistani political parties and media have been mobilized to create confusion among the Pakistani public about security situation and safety of nuclear program. Under a well-planned strategy pressure is being built against nuclear weapons of Pakistan by floating false propaganda. The more sinister plan is being woven for turning Pakistani federation into confederation by supporting the sub-nationalists in NWFP and Balochistan. The efforts for separating FATA is already been initiated with bringing little known tribal leaders from FATA onboard. The demand for a separate province consisting FATA is being tucked down the throats of these unknown tribal leaders and press conferences and wide media coverage is being arranged for publicizing this demand and smoothening public opinion. Few months’ back a selected group of little known tribal leaders was reportedly facilitated a trip to the US where they were assigned the task to promote the notion of separate province of FATA. Civil society organizations have also been activated to make grounds for demand for making FATA a separate province. These NGOs funded by US and Western countries are constantly arranging seminars and propagating the idea while at the same time formulating suggestions for the same.

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Just four days back the government of PPP has announced turning FATA into an elected council and for the purpose has sought suggestions from these NGOs and other stalk holders. US have already committed pumping millions of dollars in for ‘development’ of FATA to be utilized through non-government organizations to win minds and hearts resulting in gaining local support. The doctrine of greater provincial autonomy is also being promoted through the subnationalists who are in the first phase demanding total control of resources (which means the elements within provincial governments can blackmail and bypass the centre regarding important strategic issues in the future) as well as doing away with the concurrent list which will empower the sub-nationalists to post own trusted people on key posts who will in future carry on the agenda. Many eyebrows were raised when soon after Yousaf Raza Gillani taking oath as prime minister announced abolishment of Frontier Crimes Regulations (40-FCR) without any planning. The decision was criticized both by the tribesmen as well as intellectuals even it was questioned by many quarters that on whose behest the prime minister announced such a decision in haste. The game is exposed and now it is time that Pakistan develops some serious response to the challenge: Really, Pakistan needs to “do more” to check the sinister game plan against itself. So let’s do more. To start with Pakistan should immediately initiate three following steps: 1.

Revive Pak-Afghan Jirga held in Kabul in August 2007 which had concluded with the agreement that Pakistan and Afghanistan governments will initiate talks with Afghan Taliban and bring them onboard the peace process. The process was abandoned later on after strong US objections to the idea.

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Fence/mine the border to check any unwanted crossings and infiltrations. Install biometric system at border at selected crossings as being done in Chaman border crossing in Baluchistan.

3.

Pakistan needs to redefine its Afghan Policy, ideally declaring neutrality in the conflict and offering to act as mediator between Afghan parties of conflict. Pakistan still does not have a defined anti-terrorism policy either.

4.

Pakistan should immediate debate and discuss the Afghan and anti-terror policies in parliament and develop a national mandate through the political parties, elected representatives and the cabinet.

5.

A high power parliamentary or judicial commission should be constituted to know and identify the causes, perpetrators, ideology, groups and militants behind the suicide bombings in the country against State and people. The crisis is huge enough to demand a public inquiry and expose of the phenomenon.

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Reviving the jirga: Last year in 2007, on the suggestion of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a joint Pak-Afghan Jirga – a commission for peace in the region was formed. The Pak-Afghan Jirga having full backing of NATO and US engaged about 700 tribal leaders and other influential elders from both sides held two meetings one each in both the countries. The meeting held in Kabul in August 2007 participated by tribesmen and other influential persons from both sides presented valuable suggestions to fight terrorism and bring peace in the region. The ensuing Pak-Afghan Jirga was being viewed with great expectations to bring peace in the region particularly to deal with the violence in Afghanistan. The participating representatives of tribesmen from both sides suggested bringing Taliban onboard the peace talks for bringing stability in the region. However to utter dismay of the people of both the countries, the jirga the brain child of Afghan President Karzai, who was the main architect of the structure and mechanism of this jirga, was put on backburner due to reasons that a peace in Afghanistan clashed head-on with the US objectives in the region. Pakistani President Musharraf at he concluding session of the jirga meeting had declared Taliban as legitimate entity in the war and one of the delegates even went as far as demanding total withdrawal of the US forces! Obviously, US was not amused and decided to shelve the idea. Now it is the time that the concept be revived once again and brought in the limelight. It is not some strange or alien idea as in the past during pre-Soviet invasion period tribal elders from Pakistan used to be invited to Kabul as official guests and also used to attend the proceedings of Loya Jirga of Afghanistan. Fence/mine the border & install biometric system Karzai’s ludicrous demands: •

Pakistan should stop Taliban from crossing.

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Pakistan should keep the refugee camps in Pakistan which act as safe areas for Taliban.

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Pakistan should allow more people to people contact between tribes across the border.

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Pakistan should not fence the border.

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Pakistan should not install biometric system to identity refugees from among the militants. Pakistan should do more to stop Taliban !!!!

Now what do we make out of this confused set of ridiculous demands?? It is obvious that Mr. Karzai is only interested in creating crisis and confusion for Islamabad and not in genuinely finding solutions to the problems of cross border movements. There is no way Mr. Karzai or his government can accept fencing of the border as that affects their

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drug trade as well and they are then not able to support the BLA as well as some terrorists in tribal regions. But it is time that Pakistan should “do more”. Mr Karzai has been instrumental in worsening Pak-Afghan relations as the relations between the two countries witnessed a steep downtrend following a continuing vitriol from Karzai regarding the alleged “cross-border” infiltration of the Taliban from Pakistan. To interdict the so-called movement of militants across the border, besides conducting military operations in FATA, Pakistan also proposed to fence and mines the Pak-Afghan border which was turned down by the Kabul Administration. It is ridiculous that Mr Karzai constantly accuses Pakistan of ‘cross-border infiltration’ while at the same time advocates open borders between the two countries. During his visit to Pakistan in February 2006, Karzai opposed the fencing of the border and said he favored passport-free movement of people along the Pak-Afghan border. Fencing and mining the border can be very effective in checking infiltration of unwanted elements into either of the two countries. If the Afghan president refuses to accept this fencing and mining idea, then Pakistan has no responsibility of any sort to check any crossborder movement. Enough is enough! Many refugee camps were closed down in tribal agencies of Pakistan owing to the accusation by Kabul that these are being used as sanctuaries by militants but the action did not sit well with Afghan government unable to provide security and livelihood to own citizens. The strange dichotomy is that Kabul is reluctant to accept the remedial steps for controlling unwanted cross-border movement. It is nearly impossible to check each and every person crossing without putting a mechanism in place at the border hence either the border has to be fenced/ mined or biometric system has to be installed at Western border with Afghanistan as has been done in Balochistan. Pakistan has installed the system in Balochistan at Chaman at Pak-Afghan friendship gate but again to utter disappointment some Afghans backed by some hidden hands time and again damage the gate and even a high official of Karzai government took part in one such attack aimed at damaging the system recently. It dose not require a rocket science to understand that some vested elements in Karzai government have some sinister motives behind such acts. The number of those who daily cross over at only two crossing points of Chaman and Torkham is stated to be about 30, 000 with about 20,000 only at Chaman so put together with number of those crossing the porous border points could go much higher. Hence fencing/mining is necessary in the first place while installing biometric system is equally important. Needs for redefining Pakistan’s Afghan policy: Since US attack on Afghanistan Pakistan has been carrying out a directionless Afghan policy. It is time Pakistan declares neutrality in someone else’s war. Pakistan has already done great damage to her security by supporting unequivocally and whole- hoggedly the US on its Waron-Terror.

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We had used every possible mean to destroy our assets and good will in Afghanistan but despite damaging our presence in Afghanistan we get the blame for harboring Taliban and relations with Afghanistan remain sour. The bad relations between the two important neighbors would only contribute to the instability of the region. It is, therefore, highly imperative for Pakistan to take an in-depth stock of its future relationship with Afghanistan, assets and presence there. What is most disappointing that despite taking a complete U-turn against Taliban even then it did not win us the favor of the ungrateful Americans. We must, therefore, in the best interest of Pakistan and its posterity realize that we can no longer continue with this state of affairs at the cost and expense of our own national security. It is time that we adopted a more neutral policy towards Afghan conflict and could play the role of a mediator between the Afghan government and the Anti-Coalition forces including Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami. Pakistan can play the role it was playing in the post-Soviet invasion in Afghanistan by brining all those party to the conflict on a single platform to bring peace to the war-torn country. It is time that Karzai should accept ground realities and stop opposing fencing and mining of border or installation of biometric system if he really is interested in effective checking of cross-border infiltration. It is time that Taliban are accepted as a reality and brought on board as agreed in Pak-Afghan jirga otherwise in plane diplomatic decent language borrowed from the Queen’s English - Pakistan should ask Karzai to “put up or shut up.” End

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