Bank of India January 23, 2008
Rating
Profits way above estimates: BoI's Q3FY08 net profit grew by 100% YoY at Rs5.2bn, which was significantly above our estimates by 43% of Rs3.6bn. NII growth was in line with expectations, while high other income growth and lower than expected operating expenses mainly resulted in such a strong out performance.
NII growth in line with expectations: NII (gross of amortisation expenses) grew by 24% YoY to Rs11.4bn. Margins improved by 17bps YoY and 10bps QoQ. On sequential basis, margins have mainly improved due to decline in cost of funds as asset yields have more or less remained stable.
Other income continues to be robust: Other income (net of amortisation costs) grew by 87% YoY and 6% QoQ to Rs4.9bn, of which fee income grew by 42% YoY and treasury by 110% YoY to Rs1.2bn.
Strong operating performance: Operating profit was up 76% YoY and 16% QoQ driven by strong 38% YoY net income growth and muted operating expenses growth of 5.5% YoY.
Factoring QIP issue at Rs450 per share: We have factored in a dilution of 7.8% of BoI’s existing equity base at Rs450 per share, which would help it raise around Rs17bn. The current BV is Rs138 per share, thus the issue would be significantly BV accretive; post issue tier-I ratio is likely to be at 8.2%.
Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is quoting at 7.5x FY10E EPS, 1.7x FY10E BV and 1.7x FY10E ABV. We expect its earnings to grow at a CAGR of 37% in FY07-10E with improvement in asset quality. We maintain a BUY on the stock with a 15-month forward price target of Rs520.
BUY
Price
Rs408
Target Price
Rs520
Implied Upside
27.5%
Sensex
17,594
(Prices as on January 23, 2008)
Trading Data Market Cap. (Rs bn)
199.2
Shares o/s (m)
488.1
Free Float
30.5%
Avg. Daily Vol (‘000)
515.4
Avg. Daily Value (Rs m)
191.9
Major Shareholders Promoters
69.5%
Foreign
17.1%
Domestic Inst.
6.4%
Public & Others
7.0% Key financials (Rs m)
Stock Performance (%)
1M
6M
12M
Absolute
16.3
56.8
108.0
Relative
24.5
44.9
82.7
Net interest income* Growth (%) Operating profit PAT EPS (Rs) Growth (%) Net DPS (Rs)
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
FY10E
36,841 28.1 23,945 11,232 23.0 60.2 4.0
44,901 21.9 35,913 17,973 34.2 48.5 6.8
54,400 21.2 44,658 22,909 43.6 27.5 8.7
64,778 19.1 55,158 28,778 54.7 25.6 10.9
Source: Company Data; PL Research
Profitability & valuation
Price Performance (RIC: BOI.BO, BB: BOI IN)
220
NIM (%)* RoAE (%) RoAA (%) P / BV (x) P / ABV (x) PE (x) Net dividend yield (%)
170
Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs) 470 420 370 320 270
* Gross of amortisation expenses
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
FY10E
2.9 21.2 0.9 3.5 3.9 17.7 4.0
2.9 23.9 1.1 2.4 2.5 11.9 6.8
2.9 23.6 1.2 2.0 2.1 9.4 8.7
2.9 24.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 7.5 10.9
* Gross of amortisation expenses
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
120
Abhijit Majumder
[email protected] +91-22-6632 2236
Bharat Gorasiya
[email protected] +91-22-6632 2242
Q3FY08 Result Update
Another superlative quarter
Bank of India
Highlights Margins continue to show improvement unlike peers BOI is perhaps the only PSU bank which is unscathed from the high deposit cost pressure on margins for most other PSU banks. CASA ratio remains healthy at 37%, stable on QoQ basis but down by 400bps YoY. Despite the fall in CASA, a broad industry phenomenon, the bank has managed well to improve its margins and maintain steady business growth. Trend in NIM 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 Q3FY07
Q4FY07
Q1FY08
Q2FY08
Q3FY08
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Responsible business growth has been the key The bank, unlike its peers, had not relied on bulk deposits to fund its advances growth. Rather, bulk deposit comprises of only 10% of its total deposits. This responsible business growth, with more focus on quality, has helped BOI to improve margins and also its asset quality. A rare feat not displayed by most other PSU banks. Trend in advances and deposit growth 32.0
Advances
Deposits
30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 Q3FY07
Q4FY07
Q1FY08
Q2FY08
Q3FY08
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 23, 2008
2
Bank of India
AS-15 expenses already provided for FY08 The bank estimates its transitional liability of Rs5bn to be spread over five years, of which Rs1bn has already been provided for this year.
Asset quality likely to improve further There is little stress on the bank’s asset quality as GNPAs (at 1.9% vs. 2.7% QoQ) and NNPAs (at 0.6% vs. 0.8% QoQ) are both down on sequential basis in percentage and absolute terms. The innovative recovery methods (providing incentives to employees) adopted by the management is yielding good results. The bank plans to increase provision coverage to 85% by March 2008 from 78% at present thus improving the asset quality further. Trend in GNPA and NNPA 25.0
GNPA (Rs bn)
NNPA (Rs bn)
NNPA (%) - (RHS)
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Q3FY07
Q4FY07
Q1FY08
Q2FY08
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Q3FY08
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Outlook BOI has been the best performing PSU bank for the last six quarters. It is prudently utilising treasury gains to increase its provision coverage. We expect the QIP placement to be at a much higher price than the SEBI floor price of Rs359 per share (our assumption Rs450). With a RoE of 24%, FII headroom still available and improving asset quality, BOI continues to remain among our top picks.
Valuation At the CMP, the stock is quoting at 7.5x FY10E EPS, 1.7x FY10E BV and 1.7x FY10E ABV. We expect its earnings to grow at a CAGR of 37% in FY07-10E with improvement in asset quality. We maintain a BUY on the stock with a 15-month forward price target of Rs520.
January 23, 2008
3
Bank of India
Q3FY08 result overview Y/e March Total interest earned Total non interest income*
(Rs m) Q3FY08
Q3FY07
YoY gr. (%)
32,161
23,181
38.7
Q2FY08
9MFY08
9MFY07
YoY gr. (%)
30,412
90,476
65,642
37.8
4,890
2,614
87.1
4,630
12,700
8,062
57.5
Total income
37,051
25,795
43.6
35,042
103,176
73,704
40.0
Int. expended
20,717
13,984
48.1
19,895
58,412
39,115
49.3
Net int. income**
11,445
9,198
24.4
10,517
32,065
26,527
20.9
Net total income
16,335
11,811
38.3
15,147
44,765
34,589
29.4
Op. expenses
6,622
6,279
5.5
6,744
19,871
19,589
1.4
Op. profit
9,713
5,532
75.6
8,403
24,893
15,000
66.0
Core op. profit
7,553
4,789
57.7
6,373
21,823
13,425
62.6
Provisions
2,314
2,286
1.2
3,000
7,294
5,556
31.3
PBT
7,399
3,246
127.9
5,403
17,599
9,443
86.4
Prov. for taxes
2,281
697
227.4
1,153
5,067
2,683
88.8
Net profit
5,118
2,549
100.8
4,251
12,532
6,760
85.4
12.5
11.8
10.5
5.2
19,693 6,335
% of gross NPAs
1.9
% of net NPAs
0.6
Deposits
1,358,350
1,066,120
Advances
1,036,570
798,180
CAR (%) EPS (Rs) Gross NPA Net NPA
12.6
12.5
11.8
100.8
8.7
25.7
13.9
21,860
(9.9)
19,837
19,693
21,860
(9.9)
7,480
(15.3)
7,137
6,335
7,480
(15.3)
2.7
2.1
1.9
2.7
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0
27.4
1,295,910
1,358,350
1,066,120
27.4
29.9
958,160
1,036,570
798,180
29.9
85.4
* Net of amortisation expenses ** Gross of amortisation expenses
January 23, 2008
4
Bank of India
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India. Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature BUY
:
> 15% Outperformance to BSE Sensex
Outperformer (OP)
: 5 to 15% Outperformance to Sensex
Market Performer (MP)
:
-5 to 5% of Sensex Movement
Underperformer (UP)
: -5 to -15% of Underperformace to Sensex
Sell
:
<-15% Relative to Sensex
Not Rated (NR)
:
No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR)
: Rating likely to change shortly
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.
January 23, 2008
5