Biofuels Slideshow

Biofuels, Agriculture and the Environment Remarks by Craig Cox Kansas Natural Resource Conference

What I Will Cover

• Context in which we need to think

about agriculture, biofuels, and the environment.

• Current policy and “conventional biofuels (corn ethanol).

• “Advanced biofuels.” • New policy.

Move Away from Fossil Fuels as Fast as we Can

Move Away from Fossil Fuels as Fast as we Can

Move Away from Fossil Fuels as Fast as we Can

Build a New Energy Economy

Build a New Energy Economy

Build a New Energy Economy

While Lifting Billions Out of Hunger

... And Poverty

In the Face of Global Warming •

More frequent and more severe fires.

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More frequent and severe drought.

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Pest and insect eruptions.

With Profound Ecological Effects

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Dead zones expand 10-fold?

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75 % of U.S. coastal areas already show symptoms of eutrophication.

... And on Conservation •

Increased frequency and severity of storms.

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Soil erosion and runoff from cropland could double.

... While Water Shortages Multiply •

UNEP: More than half of humanity will be living with water shortages in less than 50 years.

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GAO: 36 U.S. states could face water shortages by 2013.

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UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon: 2. 7 billion people in 46 countries with a high-risk of violent conflict over water by 2025. Increased frequency and severity of storms.

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Soil erosion and runoff from cropland could double.

Preeminent Challenges of this Century

• Move away from fossil fuels. • Double food production. • Lift billions out of poverty. • “Manage” profound effects of global warming.

• Agriculture is at the center of this challenge.

So Whatʼs a “Good” Biofuel?

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Can make a major contribution, quickly, to displacing gasoline.

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Doesnʼt compete with food production for land and water.

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Substantially reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

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Conserves soil, water, and habitat. Agriculture with all its environmental, economic and development implications is at the center of this challenge.

Thrust of Current Policy: Expand Corn Ethanol

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45 cent tax credit for each gallon of ethanol blended with gasoline.

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54 cent tariff on imported ethanol.

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Multiple state mandates and subsidies.

Federal mandate to use corn ethanol (10 billion gallons this year; 15 billion by 2015).

Soon be spending more on ethanol tax credits each year than on entire farm bill conservation title

Policy has “Worked” Driven a Rapid Increase in Production U.S. Ethanol Production 7,000

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07

Gallons (Millions)

6,000

But... Limited Potential to Replace Gasoline

Using entire 2007 corn crop to produce ethanol would replace 10 to 15 percent of the gasoline used in the U.S. each year.

And Competes with Food Production

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“World agriculture has entered a new, unsustainable and politically risky period,” says Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington, DC.

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Poor people are suffering daily from the impact of high food prices, especially in urban areas and in low income countries,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. “In some countries, hard-won gains in overcoming poverty may now be reversed.”

Plus Greenhouse Gas Reduction?

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Highly controversial, ongoing debate among scientists.

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Highly dependent on how you deal with “indirect effects” -- conversion of grassland or forest to crop production.

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How to account of nitrous oxide emissions from corn production.

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How you look at it also makes a big difference--emission reductions on a per mile basis tell a different story than on a gallon of gasoline to gallon of corn ethanol comparison.

What About Soil and Water Conservation?

Cellulosic Ethanol Will It Save the Day??? •

More questions than answers so far.

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Which biofuel wins: ethanol, butanol, biogasoline???

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What conversion process comes out on top: biological, thermochemical, pyrolysis???

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What feedstock is used and how is it produced and harvested??????????

Is This the Future?

Or Is This the Future?

Or this???

So... Where to Now with Public Policy?

• Pause. • Change direction. • Proceed with caution.

Pause

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No more federal mandates or subsidies to expand conventional biofuels (largely corn ethanol).

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Freeze mandate to produce conventional ethanol at current level.

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Phase out “blenders tax credit” -- phase in subsidies tied to greenhouse gas reductions and conservation.

Change Direction • • •

Put in place a comprehensive energy policy. Conservation and energy efficiency as the first priority. Balance our renewable energy portfolio:

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Corn ethanol currently gets 75 percent of renewable energy tax benefits.

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Put money into renewable energy options with greatest potential for energy independence, greenhouse gas reductions, and for conserving soil, water, and habitat.

Proceed with Caution

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In a recent article in Science Magazine, twenty-three scientists from multiple disciplines had this to say about biofuel policy:

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“We know that grain-based biofuel cropping systems as currently managed cause environmental harm.”

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“The identification of unintended consequences early in the development of alternative fuel strategies will help to avoid costly mistakes and regrets...”

Promise or Peril of Biofuels

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If we pause, change direction and proceed with caution, will can harvest the promise and avoid the perils of biofuels.

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Right now we seem to be headed toward a more rationale and comprehensive energy policy.

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That is very good news, but conservationists must be vigilant.

Must Not Trade Soil or Water for Oil

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It makes no sense to replace one scarce resource – oil – with two other scarce resources – soil and water.

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Resource conservation must be a central element of biofuel policy—it is not now.

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Biofuels are a solution only if they conserve soil, water, and habitat.

Thank You For what you do to conserve soil, water, and habitat. We are counting on you. Craig Cox Environmental Working Group Midwest Office, Ames Iowa [email protected]

Thank You For what you do to conserve soil, water, and habitat. We are counting on you. Craig Cox Environmental Working Group Midwest Office, Ames Iowa [email protected]