Bhr India Good Deal Addendum

SDI 2008 1/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL GOOD India Deal Good...........................................................................................................................................................1 1nc Shell (1/2)................................................................................................................................................................2 1nc Shell (2/2)................................................................................................................................................................3 India Deal Pass.............................................................................................................................................................4 India Deal Pass – India................................................................................................................................................5 India Deal Pass – India................................................................................................................................................6 India Deal Pass – IAEA / NSG...................................................................................................................................7 India Deal Pass – US....................................................................................................................................................8 Brink / Top of Agenda...............................................................................................................................................10 Bush pushing internationally / focus......................................................................................................................11 PC Key India Deal......................................................................................................................................................12 India Deal Good – Economy....................................................................................................................................13 India Deal Good – Russia/China/India Axis..........................................................................................................14 India Deal T/Case – Warming..................................................................................................................................15 AT: India Deal tanks relations .......................................................................................................................................................................................16 AT: No time before November.................................................................................................................................17 AT: India nuclear plants bad....................................................................................................................................18 AT: No international support...................................................................................................................................19 AT: Obama/McCain will pass anyway....................................................................................................................20 ......................................................................................................................................................................................20 (AFF) Obama will pass anyway..............................................................................................................................21

For more evidence, in particular for Bush PC internals, check the original India Deal Bad file.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 2/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

1NC SHELL (1/2) A. Bush’s pushing the India Deal is key to getting it passed in Congress before January Associated Press, 7/8/08, [Deb Riechmann, “Bush pushes US-India nuclear deal”, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iDhfdxlthyulzNbmR8KGjPKvNzaAD91Q0D6O0] TOYAKO, Japan (AP) — President Bush defended a languishing deal his administration negotiated to sell India nuclear fuel and technology, saying he reassured India's prime minister that the pact was important for both countries despite heavy opposition on both sides. Bush's meeting on Wednesday with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was one of a series of one-and-one sessions the president scheduled on the final day of the three-day G-8 summit of economic powers.

Bush said, speaking with reporters after their meeting. "I also respect India a lot. And I think it's very important that the United States continues to work with our friend to develop not only a new strategic relationship, but a relationship that addresses some of the world's problems. We talked about the India-U.S. nuclear deal — how important that is for our respective countries." Singh said, "In "I respect the prime minister a lot,"

this increasingly interdependent world that we live in, whether it the question of climate change or whether it is a question of managing the global economy, India and the United States must stand tall, must stand shoulder to shoulder." If ratified by Washington and New Delhi, the pact would reverse three decades of U.S. policy by allowing the sale of atomic fuel and technology to India, which has not signed international nonproliferation accords but has tested nuclear weapons. In return, India, would open its civilian reactors to international inspections. U.S. critics worry the agreement could spark a nuclear arms race in Asia and weaken international efforts to prevent states like Iran and North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. In India, critics say it would undermine India's weapons program and give Washington too much influence over Indian foreign policy. Singh's communist allies withdrew their support for his four-year-old coalition government on Tuesday to protest the government's plan to push forward with

Bush is trying to prod Congress to approve the pact before time runs out on his administration in January. the nuclear deal.

B. Link— 1. [Insert plan is unpopular] 2. Political capital is key to India Deal’s passage through Congress AsiaPulse News, 12/30/05, [“ANALYSIS - INDIA-US TIES SCALE NEW HEIGHTS IN 2005.” http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-12195593_ITM] Since July 2005, the Republican administration has been trying to go about drumming up support domestically from a Congress that is miffed at being left out in the first stages. Further, one of the queries raised is what Washington is going to do if Beijing or Moscow goes about their own ways with "their" commercial or interested partner. There are real questions if this Bush White House has enough political muscle to get the

"deal" through Congress given not only its troubles on Capitol Hill on non-India related issues but also if it has strength to take on those who are adamantly opposed to this who have the power of persuading key Congressional leaders.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 3/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

1NC SHELL (2/2) C. Impact—

1. India deal is key to preventing proliferation AFP, 7/10/08, [“US welcomes India's decision to move ahead with nuke deal” http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jzMQc2CTXdWzXUGsBQ-pa66jqdGA] US envoy Schulte was adamant that the US-India deal "will help strengthen the global non-proliferation regime and help India meet its growing energy demands in an environmentally friendly way." Proponents of the US-India accord say it will bring India -- which has not signed the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT) -- into the non-proliferation mainstream. In addition, it will bring India, which is running out of uranium to fuel its reactors, into the fold of global nuclear commerce after being shut out for decades. 2. WMD proliferation causes extinction Hitchens 12/26/02 (Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair "WMD" and "Inspection" http://www.slate.com/id/2076026)

The term "WMD," then, appears to be both an over- and understatement. It can overstate the destructive power of some weaponry, while understating its wickedness. The two most destructive moments of the last Gulf War were, in point of casualties, the revenge taken by Saddam on the Shia and Kurdish intifada in the conflict's closing moments; in point of

The main weapon in the first instance was the helicopter-gunship, and the chief one in the second instance was high explosive. Mass destruction of humans and resources was the outcome in each case, but this tells us little about the weaponry (while telling us physical mayhem, his decision to ignite the Kuwaiti oilfields during Iraq's ignominious retreat.

a good deal about the regime). The term "WMD" originated, as far as I can tell, as a Soviet expression during the protracted '70s and '80s negotiations about arms control and détente. It was a generalization, as well as something of a euphemism, but it was also a loosely pejorative way of referring to thermonuclear

weaponry. This kind of warfare obviously meets all conditions of condemnation, because it causes unimaginable damage to cities and to the infrastructure, as well as vaporizing civilians by the million and tearing apart the web of nature that we call the ecology. Insofar as we can tell, it also threatens the whole biosphere and creates long-term risks from radiation and climatic change. At its worst, it could cause extinction rather than mere extermination: killing everybody alive, as well as those yet unborn—a true and apocalyptic "end of history." No gas or bug or nerve agent can quite do that.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 4/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL PASS India deal is already passing through India and the IAEA. All that’s needed now is for democrats like Biden and Obama to push it through. Times of India, 7/18/08, [“N-Deal possible even if govt loses trust vote,” http://timesofindia.indiatimes. com /N-Deal_possible_even_if_govt_loses_trust_vote/articleshow/3247394.cms] If it goes into cold storage after the trust vote, it’ll be because the government chose to do so. For, the government has to only see the agreement through the IAEA board. The next few stages will be spearheaded by the US, not India. According to sources in the government, if the UPA coalition fails the trust vote and becomes a caretaker government, they would be constrained from taking any fresh policy decisions. "But there is no law that prevents a government from carrying on with its existing policies," said a source. However, the PM has said India would halt the process if he lost the trust vote. If he is held to his word, then in the event of a loss on Tuesday, he would have to signal to the IAEA that India cannot attend the meeting on August 1.

Legally, there is nothing that stops the government. In many ways, the deal then goes out of India’s hands as it will be the responsibility of the US to pilot it through the NSG. Meanwhile, the US’ top diplomat, William Burns, will be in Vienna on Friday, when foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon briefs the IAEA board and NSG members. Burns replaces Nick Burns who negotiated the deal. William is also expected to visit India days after the trust vote for talks. Sources also said German chancellor Angela Merkel has indicated that, as president of the NSG, she would call an NSG meeting within days of the IAEA clearing the deal. In the US, senator Joe Biden has also gone on record to say that he would fight "like the devil" to clear the deal if India does its bit. Moreover, Barack Obama’s support for the deal has almost put it on auto pilot. Significantly, on Thursday the Chinese government indicated its own emerging flexibility on support to the deal.

India Deal will pass – US and India will ensure it gets ratified by the IAEA and NSG Thaindian News, 7/23/08, [http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/us-will-convince-pak-notto-vote-against-india-at-iaea-mulford_10075083.html, “US will convince Pak not to vote against India at IAEA: Mulford”] The United States will convince Pakistan into not voting against the India-specific safeguards agreement when the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets in Vienna, Austria, later this month or early next month to give its approval to it, said U.S. Ambassador to India, David C. Mulford. Conveying this message through a phono with select media at the American Centre here from Washington, Ambassador Mulford said he was well aware of Islamabads reservations on the pact and on the US-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement, and expressed conviction about the Bush Administrations ability to persuade Pakistan to cooperate on the matter. We will address Pakistans role at the IAEA, he said. Welcoming the support in the Indian Parliament for the US-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative, Ambassador Mulford said a day after the UPA Government had won the trust vote by 275 to 256 that: “We will work closely with Government of India in days ahead for rapid completion of the ratification process through IAEA, Nuclear Suppliers Group and US Congress.” Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 5/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL PASS – INDIA India Deal will pass in India – they won the key vote of confidence on July 22nd. Business Week, 7/22/08, [Mehul Srivastava and Nandini Lakshman, “India-U.S. Nuclear Deal Is in Sight” http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jul2008/gb20080722_699536.htm?chan=top+news_top+n ews+index_news+%2B+analysis] The Indian government won a vote of confidence July 22, with 275 members of Parliament voting to support the coalition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, vs. 256 who voted against. The victory opens the way for India to ratify a long-delayed nuclear accord with the U.S. The India Deal is popular with the Indian public Times of India, 7/15/08, ['Safeguards agreement won't hamper strategic programme' 15 Jul 2008, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/We_will_conclude_nuclear_deal_PM/ articleshow/3235358.cms] In an expression of confidence that government will win the July 22 trust vote in Lok Sabha, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said that people understand the significance of the initiatives taken by it and "endorse them". "The Prime Minister expressed confidence that the people of India understood the significance of

the initiatives being taken by the UPA Government and endorse them," a brief note, issued by PM's media advisor after Singh's meeting with a group of editors at his residence here, said.

India deal will pass – Singh’s loss of communist support and gain of support from another group means he’ll be able to pass it. Christian Science Monitor, 7/10/08, [Howard LaFranchi, “U.S., India revive sweeping nuke deal”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0710/p02s01-usfp.html] Singh formally lost Communist support from his coalition this week, but picked up the support of another small parliamentary group to make up for the loss. India experts see the deal as a legacy issue for Singh, who faces rough parliamentary elections next year. "Legacy" is also a word that arises with respect to Bush, who came into office with a foreign policy team set on finding ways of countering China's rise. "This deal offers a unique chance to set the direction of US-India relations on a productive path for the next administrations in Washington and New Delhi," says Bruce Riedel, a South Asia expert who served under three administrations and is now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Failure to approve the deal this year would be a "serious setback," he says, but improvements in US-India relations in recent years mean "our partnership … is strong enough to survive if the deal falters."

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 6/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL PASS – INDIA India deal will pass – India has already given it to the IAEA for approval Reuters, 7/16/08, [“IAEA to consider India nuclear plan on August http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C07%5C16%5Cstory_16-7-2008_pg4_15]

1”,

After protracted delays caused by a split in the governing coalition over the 2005 deal, India took the first step toward implementing it last Wednesday by handing the draft nuclear safeguards plan to the IAEA board for approval. The pact reached by India and the IAEA’s inspectorate early this year would subject its declared civilian nuclear reactors - 14 among 22 plants - to regular non-proliferation checks.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 7/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL PASS – IAEA / NSG The IAEA and NSG will approve the India Deal AFP, 7/3/08, [“India to push ahead with US nuclear http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g-fUCuWRQRNkgZXjCZz6_ZjJl_Ig]

deal:

officials”,

Before the deal is voted on by the US Congress, New Delhi needs to negotiate an accord with the International Atomic Energy Agency to allow inspections of its atomic plants and earn a waiver from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. Political analysts however said it was likely that the Congress party would be able to muster the numbers to survive and carry the pact forward while putting off early polls. "The SP has been saying the main challenge is to keep communal forces at bay," said political analyst and author Rasheed Kidwai. “This means they would like to ensure that the Congress government survives and keeps the (opposition Hindu nationalist) Bharatiya Janata Party out.”

India deal will be approved by the NSG because of US support Time, 7/17/08, [“Nuclear Brinksmanship” http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1823707,00.html] The agreement that has caused so much turmoil in Indian politics — and so much trouble for Singh — is a version of a pact that the U.S. has signed with more than a dozen other nations. It would open up nuclear-materials trade between the U.S. and India, with the proviso that some of India's nuclear reactors be open to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. That's a big concession for India, which withstood international sanctions and withering criticism after its 1998 nuclear weapons tests and has chafed ever since at the idea of submitting its nuclear program to any outside review. But the country needs clean energy, and signing the agreement would be a first step toward joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) — the club of 45 nations committed to both nuclear energy and nonproliferation. With U.S. backing, the NSG may allow India to join even though the country has not signed the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 8/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL PASS – US The US will ratify the deal because of India’s vote of confidence Thaindian News, 7/23/08, [http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/us-will-convince-pak-notto-vote-against-india-at-iaea-mulford_10075083.html, “US will convince Pak not to vote against India at IAEA: Mulford”]

Replying to a question on whether the Bush Administration expected internal resistance to the deal, Mulford replied in the affirmative, but added: We do expect a bipartisan majority to hold up in Congress. The US Congress will have to meet before September when it breaks for session to meet only after the Presidential election process is completed in January next year. The US has pledged to move forward on the civilian nuclear deal with India after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won a vote of confidence in the Parliament. “We think that we can move forward with this,” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said about the nuclear deal at the daily briefing on Tuesday. “If their legislature lets it move forward, then we can do the same here, and then we”ll be able to get this wrapped up,” she elaborated. (ANI)

Mo ev Time of India, 7/22/08, [“We will work with India to wrap up nuke pact: US,” http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/We_can_work_with_India_to_wrap_up_nuke_pact_US/articlesh ow/3266251.cms] As the UPA government won the confidence motion, the United States on Tuesday said governments of the two countries would be able to wrap up the civil nuclear pact before the time runs out. "We think we can move forward with this. If their legislature lets it move forward then we can do the same here and then we'll be able to get this wrapped up," White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said here. She said "there aren't that many days left where Congress is going to be in session" and enough US lawmakers backed the agreement to secure its ratification.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 9/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

India Deal Pass – US Biden will focus all his energy to push the deal if India passes it. Press Trust of India, 7/16/08, [“Biden to ‘push like the devil’ if N-deal comes to Congress”, http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/5C8D8C3E099C99E165257 4880046B514?] Joseph Biden, the Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee who will be one of the major players on Capitol Hill when the final package gets there, warned of the tight window that Congress is facing prior to its adjournment. “… Once that occurs, under our law, there is a 30-day of continuous session – which will take about 50 days to get there,” But then top Democrat said “I am going to push like the devil… If they (India) get their end done to do it.” “I am an optimist. I am not going to say it (clock) has run out.” PTI

The US will pass the India deal – Biden is pushing. Press Trust of India, 7/16/08, [“Biden to ‘push like the devil’ if N-deal comes to Congress”, http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/5C8D8C3E099C99E165257 4880046B514?] Cautioning that the time frame for the passage of the Indo-US nuclear deal is "very, very tight", an influential American lawmaker has vowed to "push like the devil" if India gets it end done and the accord is presented to Congress for final approval. Joseph Biden, the Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee who will be one of the major players on Capitol Hill when the final package gets there, warned of the tight window that Congress is facing prior to its adjournment.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 10/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

BRINK / TOP OF AGENDA Now is the key time to pass the deal – if we wait too long it won’t pass. Press Trust of India, 7/16/08, [“Biden to ‘push like the devil’ if N-deal comes to Congress”, http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/5C8D8C3E099C99E165257 4880046B514?] Joseph Biden, the Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee who will be one of the major players on Capitol Hill when the final package gets there, warned of the tight window that Congress is facing prior to its adjournment. "It's possible, but it's very, very tight," Biden told rediff.Com/India Abroad. Under the present scheme of things, the House of Representatives is due to adjourn on September 26 and the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid recently announced that he will have the same date too as far as the Senate is concerned. Biden said he spoke of the time lines in New Delhi when he was there some three months ago, making the point that the nuclear deal will have to get the approval of the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group before it lands on Capitol Hill.

Now is the key time to pass the India Deal – if we don’t ratify it now it will never go through. Times of India, 6/22/08, [“Why rush N-deal now? Govt wants quick IAEA, NSG nod”, Indrani Bagchi, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Why_rush_Ndeal_now_Govt_wants_quick_IAEA_NSG_nod/articleshow/3152487.cms This is the place where the Bush administration will have to mount its strongest showing - but with the administration haemorrhaging top officials every day, America is getting weaker and weaker. In fact, the Left rightly calculated that the longer they take over the deal, the less would be its chances of going through.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 11/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

BUSH PUSHING INTERNATIONALLY / FOCUS Bush is focusing all his energy in pushing the deal internationally The Economic Times, 7/10/08, [“N-Deal action shifts to G-8”, http://economictimes. indiatimes .com/PoliticsNation/N-Deal_action_shifts_to_G-8/articleshow/3216507.cms] Since Tuesday, Mr Manmohan Singh has gone about his business as usual without getting perturbed by political developments in India. His meeting with Mr Bush happened early Wednesday morning, hours before Left parties formally withdrew support to the UPA government. Mr Bush’s assurance that the US will support India and even lobby with other developed nations at the NSG is significant because the proceedings at the NSG need to be fast-tracked and pushed simultaneously with the proceedings at IAEA board of governors. With the US throwing its weight behind the next steps at IAEA and NSG, things are expected to move fast.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 12/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

PC KEY INDIA DEAL Bush needs political capital to get the deal passed in Congress Washington Post, 7/18/08, [Jayshree Bajoria, Council on Foreign Relations, “An Uncertain Deal with India”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/18/AR2008071801269.html] President Bush has his own problems persuading Congress to pass the deal before it adjourns for the year on September 26. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, a Washington-based nonpartisan policy organization, has asked the suppliers group and Congress not to make a hasty decision on the nuclear agreement, saying it undermines global nonproliferation efforts. Both U.S. presidential candidates Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) have indicated support for the deal, but it is not clear if they would present it to Congress in its current form.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 13/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL GOOD – ECONOMY A. The India Deal is key to control inflation Times of India, 7/15/08, ['Safeguards agreement won't hamper strategic programme', http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/We_will_conclude_nuclear_deal_PM/ articleshow/3235358.cms] These include USA, Russia, France and China, he said adding concluding the agreements with IAEA and the NSG would end the era of nuclear apartheid against India. The Prime Minister also used the occasion to reject charges by the opposition and Left that Government was compromising the country's foreign policy. "India will never allow any extraneous interference in the conduct of our independent foreign policy," he asserted while making it clear that New Delhi would continue to seek good relations with all its Asian neighbours. Facing strident criticism over inflation and rising prices, the Prime Minister outlined the steps taken by his government to

sustain the growth momentum and curb inflation "in the face of external pressures" on account of rising crude oil prices. He also spelt out measures to insulate the poor "to the extent possible" from inflation. The Prime Minister also spoke about the initiatives being taken to boost agricultural production and farmers' welfare.

B. India economy key to global economy Business Week, 3/8/07, [Navin Chadda, Managing Director at the Mayfield Fund which has invested in two Indian companies, ”India's Economy: Off the Launch Pad”, http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/mar2007/tc20070307_581741.htm?chan=top+news_top +news+index] When I talk about India, I often refer to the image of a rocket ship launching. The country is taking off, and I see this in real time when I travel there every six weeks. The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, with GDP growth touching 9.3% last year. Simultaneously, India is experiencing exponential domestic growth for retail products and services due to the burgeoning middle class, which consists of 300 million consumers. Many people still equate India with off-shoring and the IT services of Infosys (INFY), TCS, and Wipro (WIT). While those remain dominant, over the past five years Indian companies have vaulted new sectors to prominence on the global stage including technology, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, infrastructure, energy, consumer retail, telecom, financial services, media, and hospitality. India has developed a global brand that reflects its best-of-breed ability in not only IT but many other industries as well. C. Global economic decline would cause a nuclear war Walter Russell Mead, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, 1992, p. unknown Hundreds of millions – billions – of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates – or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India – these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s. Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 14/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL GOOD – RUSSIA/CHINA/INDIA AXIS A. India deal is key to preventing the Russia-China-India axis. Gobarev, 2000, [Independent Security Policy Analyst Based in Washington, D.C., Previous Scholar at Woodrow Wilson Center & George Washington University, “India as a World Power Changing Washington’s Myopic Policy,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa381.pdf]

The concerns that such a move would invite increased nuclear proliferation do not seem justified. Rogue countries currently working on acquiring nuclear weapons will continue to do so independently of U.S. recognition of India’s nuclear

status. Moreover, many states, especially in the Third World, would welcome a conciliatory move as evidence that the United States wishes to pursue an equitable foreign and international security policy for all nations, not merely for developed countries. Britain, France, Russia, and China, the members of the nuclear club, are likely to follow the U.S. move. Russia and China would be outmaneuvered, since a crucial foreign policy and international security initiative dealing with India would have passed from them to America. That move would also deal a heavy blow to those in China, Russia, and India itself who dream of building the tripartite strategic alliance to oppose the United States. U.S. recognition of India as a nuclear power would remove the main obstacle to making America and India friends and de facto strategic partners. Such an initiative by Washington would likely mean India’s acceptance of U.S. proposals on nonproliferation of WMD technology and fissile materials. India would join international talks on ending the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons and would install effective controls for nuclear-related materials. Those measures would reduce the threat of proliferation from India and begin U.S.-Indian cooperation on counterproliferation.

B. The Russia-China-India axis will lead to a nuclear war Julie M., Rahm, Winter 2001, [Writer for Parameters – the United States Army’s Senior Professional Journal, "Russia, China, India: A New Strategic Triangle for a New Cold War?" pp. 87-97. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBR/is_4_31/ai_82064208/pg_1] Russia, China, and India watched the United States in conflicts throughout the 1990s and each learned the same lessons. Indian military and political sources were among the first to react to the Kosovo operation and to speculate on preliminary lessons to be learned. (23) "We are studying what's going on there [in Kosovo] and drawing our lessons from it." (24) A common theme in

Indian, Russian, and Chinese thinking since Operation Desert Storm has been the importance of "force

multipliers" provided by information technology, AWACs, mid-air refueling, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare capabilities. Analysts in all three countries believe their armed forces can succeed against a

high-technology foe if they use these force multipliers in combination with clever low-technology tactics, urban guerilla warfare, financial terrorism, computer , media warfare, diplomatic actions, and psychological warfare. (25) In light of the new "interventionist-oriented NATO doctrine" and the new capabilities of longrange precision conventional weapons, Indian military thinkers recommend upgrading its nuclear arms to deter Western intimidation and attack. This is a prime example of the drive toward nuclear weapons and its cascading effects predicted by General

countries, including Russia, that are unable to match an opponent in high-technology conventional weapons will resort to nuclear weapons in order to deter conventional strikes. Makmut Gareyev, President of the Russian Academy of Military Science. He believes that

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 15/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

INDIA DEAL T/CASE – WARMING India deal is key to solve warming David G. Victor, 3/17/2006,

[Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations & Director of the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development at Stanford University, “Nuclear power for India is good for us all”, http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/16/opinion/edvictor.php]

If the deal to supply India with nuclear technologies goes through, future generations may remember it for quite different reasons than the debate over nuclear proliferation. Nuclear power emits no carbon dioxide, the leading cause of global warming. And India, like most developing countries, has not been anxious to spend money to control its emissions of this and other so- called greenhouse gases. India is embracing nuclear power for other reasons - because it can help the country solve its chronic failure to supply the electricity needed for a burgeoning economy. But in effect, the deal would marry their interest in power with ours in protecting the planet. India is growing rapidly. In recent years its economy has swelled at more than 7 percent per year, and many analysts believe it is poised to grow even faster in the coming decade. The economic growth is feeding a voracious appetite for electricity that India's bankrupt utilities are unable to satisfy. Blackouts are commonplace. Farmers, who account for about twofifths of all the power consumed, can barely rely on getting power for half of every day. In industrial zones, the lifeblood of India's vibrant economy, unstable power supplies are such trouble that the biggest companies usually build their own power plants. So most analysts expect that the demand for electricity will rise at about 10 percent a year. (For comparison, U.S. power demand notches up at just 2 percent annually.) Over the past decade, about one third of India's new power supplies came from natural gas and hydro electricity. Both those sources have been good news for global warming - natural gas is the least carbon- intensive of all the fossil fuels, and most of India's hydroelectric dams probably emit almost no greenhouse gases. However, the bloom is coming off those greenhouse-friendly roses. New supplies of natural gas cost about twice what Indians are used to paying, and environmental objections are likely to scupper the government's grand plans for new hydro dams.

That leaves coal - the most carbon-intensive of all fossil fuels.

Already

more than half of India's new power supplies come from coal, and that could grow rapidly.

Mo ev. David G. Victor, 3/17/2006,

[Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations & Director of the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development at Stanford University, “Nuclear power for India is good for us all”, http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/16/opinion/edvictor.php]

What is important is that the deal is not just a one- off venture, as the administration's backers, on the defensive, have suggested. It could frame a new approach to technology sharing and managing a more proliferation-proof fuel cycle that, in turn, will multiply the benefits of a cooler climate. Coal-rich China is among the many other countries that would welcome more nuclear power and whose emissions of carbon dioxide are growing fast - even faster than India's. Quite accidentally, it seems, the Bush administration has stumbled on part of an effective strategy to slow global warming. Now it should marry that clever scheme overseas with an effective plan here at home.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 16/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

AT: INDIA DEAL TANKS RELATIONS US India relations won’t be hurt by the deal - Their claims that India’s relation with Iran will destroy US relations are wrong Christian Science Monitor, 7/10/08, [Howard LaFranchi, “U.S., India revive sweeping nuke deal”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0710/p02s01-usfp.html] "This deal offers a unique chance to set the direction of US-India relations on a productive path for the next administrations in Washington and New Delhi," says Bruce Riedel, a South Asia expert who served under three administrations and is now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Failure to approve the deal this year would be a "serious setback," he says, but improvements in US-India relations in recent years mean "our partnership … is strong enough to survive if the deal falters." Mr. Cirincione says members of Congress are right to question India's close ties to Iran, saying "it doesn't help that the country you want to give a sweetheart deal to is helping your adversary." But Mr. Riedel notes that India has the world's second-largest Shiite Muslim population after Iran, "so it has to seek normal relations with Tehran." And counterbalancing that relationship, he adds, are India's "much stronger" ties to Israel.

The India deal will not tank relations Times of India, 7/15/08, ['Safeguards agreement won't hamper strategic programme' http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/We_will_conclude_nuclear_deal_PM/ articleshow/3235358.cms] These include USA, Russia, France and China, he said adding concluding the agreements with IAEA and the NSG would end the era of nuclear apartheid against India. The Prime Minister also used the occasion to reject charges by the opposition and Left that Government was compromising the country's foreign policy. "India will never allow any extraneous interference in the conduct of our independent foreign policy," he asserted while making it clear that New Delhi would continue to seek good relations with all its Asian neighbours.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 17/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

AT: NO TIME BEFORE NOVEMBER India deal will pass before November – it’s a key issue in Washington Reuters, 7/16/08, [“IAEA to consider India nuclear plan on August 1”, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C07%5C16%5Cstory_16-7-2008_pg4_15] Washington said on Thursday it would seek to expedite the nuclear co-operation accord over international and domestic hurdles with time running out before an effective deadline set by US elections in November. Washington says the deal would forge a strategic partnership with the world’s largest democracy, help India meet exploding energy demand in an environmentally friendly way and open a nuclear market worth billions of dollars for Western firms.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 18/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

AT: INDIA NUCLEAR PLANTS BAD Indian nuclear plants are structurally resilient – tsunami proves Press Trust of India, 7/16/08, [http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/ AB25032896E272FA6525748800360FBA? “Nuke plants safe, go for the deal: nuclear safety expert”] India should shed its apprehensions over the safety of atomic power plants as well as reservations on the Indo-US nuclear deal and operationalise it to bring about a "paradigm shift" in the energy scenario, a nuclear safety expert said here today. "There are currently 400 nuclear reactors in operation in different parts of the world...Including in earthquake-prone places like Japan," said L K Krishnan, former Director, Safety Research and Health Physics Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research of the Department of Atomic Energy at Kalpakkam near here. He said two well-known nuclear accidents, one at Chernobyl in Russia and Three Mile islands in US are the rare ones. "The Chernobyl reactor is a different kind," said Krishnan, who takes pride in associating with the Kalpakkam nuclear power plant which withstood the 2004 tsunami. The tsunami caused by the Indian ocean earthquake caused widespread damage in Kalpakkam coast, but the reactors remained unaffected and according to officials, no casualties were reported from the plant.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 19/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

AT: NO INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT India deal is popular with G8 and will be approved by the NSG The Economic Times, 7/10/08, [“N-Deal action shifts to G-8”, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com /PoliticsNation/N-Deal_action_shifts_to_G-8/articleshow/3216507.cms] US president George W Bush on Wednesday assured Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to actively push India’s case at the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. Mr Singh got another major boost when the powerful group of eight (G-8) industrialised countries decided to adopt a “more robust” approach towards the civil nuclear co-operation with India to help meet India’s growing energy needs. “We look forward to working with India, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and other partners to advance India’s non-proliferation commitments and progress so as to facilitate a more robust approach to civil nuclear co-operation with India to help it meet its growing energy needs in a manner that enhances and reinforces the global non-proliferation regime,” the Chair’s Summary released at the end of the G-8 summit said here.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 20/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

AT: OBAMA/MCCAIN WILL PASS ANYWAY The India Deal won’t survive for the next presidential term AFP, 7/3/08, [“India to push ahead with US nuclear http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g-fUCuWRQRNkgZXjCZz6_ZjJl_Ig]

deal:

officials”,

The United States has been pressing India to move on the deal before the end of President George W. Bush's tenure, warning the pact may not survive in its current form under the next administration.

Liz Lemon

SDI 2008 21/21 India Deal Good Lab HBR _____________________________________________________________________________________________________

(AFF) OBAMA WILL PASS ANYWAY Even if Bush can’t pass the India deal before January, Obama will pass it in his term anyway Reuters, 7/11/08, [“Obama states backing for Indo-U.S. nuclear deal” http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSBOM6322320080711] Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama supports a civilian nuclear trade deal between India and the United States and would not push for changes to it, an Indian news magazine quoted him as saying. "I voted for the U.S.-India nuclear agreement because India is a strong democracy and a natural strategic partner for the U.S. in the 21st century," he told Outlook magazine, according to a transcript provided by the magazine on Friday. His support may prove decisive if India fails to finalize the deal before the end of President George W. Bush's term.

Liz Lemon