Basic Techniques For Workers Compensation

BASIC TECHNIQUES FOR WORKERS COMPENSATION Presented by Richard B. Moncher, NCCI, Inc. Andrew J. Doll, General Casualty 1999 CAS Seminar on Ratemaking Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 1999 INT - 4

COURSE OUTLINE RICH MONCHER: • • • •

Overview NCCI Filing Overall Rate / LC Level Change Class Rate / LC Changes

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COURSE OUTLINE ANDY DOLL: • • • • •

Other Bureau Ratemaking Expenses Loss Cost Multipliers Company Pricing Programs Current WC Market

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WC RATING PROCEDURE Exposure x Manual Rate = Manual Premium Manual Premium x Experience Mod = Standard Earned Premium - Premium Discount = Net Premium + Expense Constant 3

Example: Loss Cost = 1.60 Expenses = 0.40 Rate = 1.60 + 0.40 = 2.00 1998 Payroll = 1,500,000 Exposure = Payroll / 100 = 15,000 1999 Manual Premium = Rate x Exposure = 2.00 x 15,000 = 30,000

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Example (cont’d) 1998 Payroll = 1,500,000 1999 Payroll = 1,800,000 20% increase in Payroll If same $ 2.00 Rate, then 1999 Manual Premium = 18,000 x 2.00 = 36,000 So, 20% increase in Premium

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ADVANTAGES OF PAYROLL • Inflation Sensitive - Payroll up

Premium up

• Tracks with Indemnity Benefits • Verifiable/Auditable - Less potential for fraud • Readily Available

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W.C. DATA BASES • Financial Aggregate Calls - Annual Data at Year End - Statewide & Assigned Risk • W.C. Statistical Plan - Class Detail (Approx. 600) - Payroll & Losses - 18, 30, 42, 54, 66 Months after Effective Date

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FINANCIAL AGGREGATE CALLS • Experience - By Policy Year - By Calendar-Accident Year • Data Elements - Std. Earned Premium at DSR Level - Std. Earned Premium at Company Level - Net Earned Premium - Benefit Costs: Indemnity/Medical/Total - Payments (Paid Losses) - Case Reserves - Bulk/IBNR Reserves 8

FINANCIAL AGGREGATE CALLS • Purposes - Overall Rate/Loss Cost Level Change - Overall => Statewide, Voluntary, Assigned Risk - Trend Analyses

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VALUATION OF FINANCIAL DATA POLICY YEAR Expiration Date Policy Year 1997 Effective Date

1/1/97

12/31/97

12/31/98 (1st report)

12/31/99 (2nd report)

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VALUATION OF FINANCIAL DATA ACCIDENT YEAR Expiration Date Accident Year 1998 Effective Date

1/1/97

1/1/98

12/31/98 (1st report)

12/31/99 (2nd report)

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RATEMAKING: BIG PICTURE •

We start with historical data (premium and losses) usually one to two years old

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We use analysis and judgment to estimate the ultimate losses by adjusting historical losses

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We adjust the premium (excluding expenses for loss cost states) from the historical data to simulate the (pure) premium currently in place

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RATEMAKING: BIG PICTURE •

We divide estimated losses by simulated premium to see if current rates/loss costs are adequate (i.e. If losses/premium = 1.0, then we have exactly enough premium to cover losses. If not then we must make new rates/loss costs.)

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Does current premium level provide adequate funds for future benefits?

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PREMIUM ON-LEVEL FACTORS Adjust historical premium to current rate/loss cost level based on subsequent rate/loss cost changes PY 1997 Premium = $100M 1/1/99 Loss Cost Change = - 5.0% PY 1997 Premium @ Current Loss Cost Level = $95M

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LOSS ON-LEVEL FACTORS Adjust historical losses to current benefit level based on subsequent benefit (law) changes PY 1997 Medical Losses = $100M 1/1/99 Medical Fee Schedule Change = 10% savings PY 97 Medical Losses @ Current Benefit Level = $90M

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Trend Factors - Compares movements in indemnity and medical benefits to movements in payroll - Applied to loss ratio = (Adjusted losses)/(adjusted premium)

}

Benefit Costs

Trend

Payroll

Data in Filing

Time

Filing Effective

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LOSS EXPERIENCE INDICATION •

Estimate what the losses will be in 2000, and all the premium at the current 1999 loss costs

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Divide the losses by the premium to see if we have enough premium to cover all of the losses

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LOSS EXPERIENCE INDICATION •

This Ratio of losses to premium is called the Loss Ratio – if there are more losses than premiums (i.e. the loss ratio > 1.00) then we need more premium, so we have to raise loss costs for 2000 – if there are less losses than premium (i.e. the loss ratio < 1.00) then we have too much premium, so we have to lower loss costs for 2000

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OVERALL CHANGE TO INDUSTRY GROUPS •

Overall change is distributed to industry groups and then to individual classes

• Manufacturing • Miscellaneous • • Contracting Office & ­ Textiles ­ Trucking • Goods & ­ Plumbing Clerical ­ Cabinets ­ Logging Services ­ ­ Roads Clerical ­ Automobiles ­ Surface coal ­ Restaurants ­ Houses office ­ Retail sales mining employees ­ Nursing ­ Outside sales 20

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP CHANGE Analysis shows that: • Overall (statewide) change is +10% • Manufacturing industry group experience is 10% worse that statewide so,

Mfg. Industry = Group Change = = =

Statewide Industry Group x 1 Change Differential (1.1) (1.1) - 1 1.21 - 1 21% 21

W.C. STATISTICAL PLAN •

Experience by Policy

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Classification Details - Exposure / Premium / Exper. Mod - Individual Claim Records Indemnity / Medical Case Incurred Values By Injury Type (Fatal, PT, etc.) 22

W.C. STATISTICAL PLAN •

Purposes - Classification Relativities - Experience Rating - Retrospective Rating - Research

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VALUATION OF W.C. STATISTICAL PLAN DATA

Policy Effective 1/1/95

1st Report Valuation

2nd Report Valuation

3rd Report Valuation

4th Report Valuation

5th Report Valuation

7/1/96

7/1/97

7/1/98

7/1/99

7/1/00

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DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY GROUP CHANGE TO CLASS •

Unit Reports

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Relativities (between classes) - five years of WCSP data - current loss cost/rate - adjusted - adjusted national experience for class

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BASIC TECHNIQUES FOR WORKERS COMPENSATION Company Perspective

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INDEPENDENT BUREAU VS. NCCI FILING ACTIVITIES ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

California Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey New York Pennsylvania/Delaware Texas 27

LOSS COSTS - WHY? ● ● ●

McCarran-Ferguson Debate Antitrust Concerns Ease of Developing Final Rates

Note: 15 years ago all states were rate states. Now, almost all NCCI states are loss costs. 28

COMPONENTS OF A RATE ● ● ● ●

Losses Loss Adjustment Expenses Expenses and Profit Loss Assessments

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EXPENSE COMPONENTS ●

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Production ­ commissions, premium collection, underwriting Taxes, Licenses, and Fees ­ various premium taxes, bureau and filing fees General ­ overhead, audits, general administration Profit and contingencies ­ combined with investment income 30

COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF FIRST $5,000 OF STANDARD PREMIUM Profit Taxes General Production

Loss &Loss Adjustment

Loss Assessments

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EVALUATION OF THE NEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE LOSS COST Items always Outside the Loss Cost ● ● ● ●

Production Taxes, Licenses, and Fees General Profit and Contingencies

Items sometimes Outside the Loss Cost ● Loss Adjustment Expenses ● Loss Based Assessments

Items rarely Outside the Loss Cost (MN) ● Trend ● Loss Development beyond 8th report 32

COMPONENTS OF A RATE IN OR OUT OF THE LOSS COST Loss Assessments

Expense and Profit

Losses

Loss Adjustment Expense

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HOW TO ACCOUNT FOR ITEMS OUTSIDE THE LOSS COST The Loss Cost Multiplier (LCM) ● Factor to multiply loss costs by to load in insurer’s expense and profit ● Must also consider other items not included in the Loss Cost ● Loss Cost x LCM = Rate ● Insurance Companies must file LCM’s for approval in loss cost states ● Also known as a Pure Premium Multiplier 34

DERIVATION OF A LOSS COST MULTIPLIER ●

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State A: Loss Cost includes Loss, Loss Adjustment expense, and Assessments State B: Loss Cost includes Loss and Loss Adjustment expense State C: Loss Cost includes Loss

In all three cases, loss includes full trend and loss development 35

DERIVATION OF A LOSS COST MULTIPLIER

Expenses Profit

Total of Items to Load on Loss Cost Indicated Loss Cost Multiplier = 1/(1 - Load Needed)

Portion of Standard Premium State A B C .275 .025

.300 1.429 36

DERIVATION OF A LOSS COST MULTIPLIER Portion of Standard Premium State A B C Expenses .275 .275 .275 Profit .025 .025 .025 Loss Assessments (% Prem) .020 .020 Loss Adj. Expense (% Prem) .080 Total of Items to Load on Loss Cost .300 .320 .400 Indicated Loss Cost Multiplier 1.429 1.471 1.667 = 1/(1 - Load Needed) 37

DERIVATION OF A LOSS COST MULTIPLIER - ALTERNATIVE APPROACH ●

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Prior methodology assumes that all items included in the LCM are related to Premium Loss Adjustment Expenses and Assessments may not have a stable relationship to Premium An alternative approach for states that require a loading for “loss related” items is: 1 + Loss Related Items (% Loss)

LCM = 1 ­ Premium Related Items (% Premium) 38

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE LOSS COST MULTIPLIER ●

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Administered Pricing vs. Competitive Rating When to use a LCM? Evaluation of the Bureau Loss Cost Filing Do you agree with the various assumptions? How does your book compare? Is there additional, more current info? Consideration of the Company’s experience How does your experience compare? Are there changes to consider? When will you be implementing a change? 39

MANUAL RATE IS STARTING POINT FOR DETERMINING COST OF WORKERS COMPENSATION INSURANCE Additional Factors ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Prospective Experience Rating Premium Discounts Deviations Schedule Rating Retrospective Rating Dividend Plans Deductibles (Small and Large) 40

PROGRAMS THAT CAN BE USED TO BETTER REFLECT INDIVIDUAL RISK CHARACTERISTICS ●

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Experience Rating ­ mandatory tool that compares actual and expected losses Premium Discounts ­ by policy size; reflects that relative expense is less for larger insureds Expense Constant ­ reflects expense gradation for smaller insureds Deviations ­ filed by companies (LCM or rate) to reflect anticipated experience differences Schedule Rating ­ reflects characteristics not reflected by experience rating Dividend Plans ­ means to reflect favorable experience; similar to schedule or retro rating

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PROGRAMS THAT CAN BE USED TO REFLECT ACTUAL LOSS EXPERIENCE ●

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Retrospective Rating ­ premium depends on the experience generated by the insured during the time the policy is in force Large Deductibles ­ similar to retrospective rating, but can often allow for cash flow benefits to the insured

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WORKERS COMPENSATION CLIMATE AND THE ROLE OF THE ACTUARY ●

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Rates/Loss Costs continue to decrease in many jurisdictions, but starting to moderate Market remains relatively soft, with continued use of pricing tools (schedule rating, dividends) Industry results deteriorating on an accident year basis Actuaries must be aware of changing environments, how pricing tools are used, and how that will impact results Actuaries must communicate findings with management 43