Bank Of Baroda Forecast

share prices of BANK OF BARODA from 1st - 31st 0ct 2006 Simple Average Price Date Close Price Forecasted Series Yt Yt+1 3-Oct-06 284.3 4-Oct-06 284.5 284.3 5-Oct-06 289.5 284.4 6-Oct-06 290.15 286.1 9-Oct-06 287.85 287.11 10-Oct-06 287.4 287.26 11-Oct-06 279.5 287.28 12-Oct-06 285.65 286.17 13-Oct-06 284.35 286.11 16-Oct-06 278.55 285.91 17-Oct-06 276.4 285.18 18-Oct-06 274.4 284.38 19-Oct-06 264.2 283.55 20-Oct-06 267.15 282.06 21-Oct-06 266.8 280.99 23-Oct-06 261.45 280.05 26-Oct-06 269.85 278.88 27-Oct-06 265.05 278.35 30-Oct-06 281.3 277.61 31-Oct-06 278.2 277.81 279

Error (e) 0.2 5.1 4.05 0.74 0.14 -7.78 -0.52 -1.76 -7.36 -8.78 -9.98 -19.35 -14.91 -14.19 -18.6 -9.03 -13.3 3.69 0.39

Error² (e²) 0.04 26.01 16.4 0.54 0.02 60.58 0.27 3.08 54.19 77 99.55 374.26 222.24 201.44 345.84 81.62 176.97 13.59 0.15

Moving Average Forecasted Series k=2

Error (e)

284.4 287 289.83 289 287.63 283.45 282.58 285 281.45 277.48 275.4 269.3 265.68 266.98 264.13 265.65 267.45 273.18

5.1 3.15 -1.97 -1.6 -8.13 2.2 1.78 -6.45 -5.05 -3.08 -11.2 -2.15 1.13 -5.53 5.73 -0.6 13.85 5.02

1753.79

εe²/38

46.15

εe²/37

1st - 31st 0ct 2006 Error² (e²)

Moving Average Forecasted Series k=3

Error (e)

26.01 9.92 3.9 2.56 66.02 4.84 3.15 41.6 25.5 9.46 125.44 4.62 1.27 30.53 32.78 0.36 191.82 25.25

286.1 288.05 289.17 288.47 284.92 284.18 283.17 282.85 279.77 276.45 271.67 268.58 266.05 265.13 266.03 265.45 272.07

4.05 -0.2 -1.77 -8.97 0.73 0.17 -4.62 -6.45 -5.37 -12.25 -4.52 -1.78 -4.6 4.72 -0.98 15.85 6.13

605.02

16.35

Error² (e²)

Moving Average Forecasted Series k=4

Error (e)

Error² (e²)

16.4 0.04 3.12 80.4 0.54 0.03 21.31 41.6 28.8 150.06 20.4 3.18 21.16 22.25 0.97 251.22 37.62

287.11 288 288.73 286.23 285.1 284.23 282.01 281.24 278.43 273.39 270.54 268.14 264.9 266.31 265.79 269.41

0.74 -0.6 -9.23 -0.58 -0.75 -5.68 -5.61 -6.84 -14.23 -6.24 -3.74 -6.69 4.95 -1.26 15.51 8.79

0.54 0.36 85.1 0.33 0.56 32.21 31.5 46.75 202.35 38.91 13.97 44.72 24.5 1.59 240.64 77.22

699.1

εe²/36

19.42

841.26

εe²/35

24.04

Moving Average Forecasted Series k=5

287.26 287.88 286.88 286.11 284.95 283.09 280.89 279.87 275.58 272.14 269.79 266.8 265.89 266.06 268.89

Error (e)

0.14 -8.38 -1.23 -1.76 -6.4 -6.69 -6.49 -15.67 -8.43 -5.34 -8.34 3.05 -0.84 15.24 9.31

Error² (e²)

0.02 70.22 1.51 3.1 40.96 44.76 42.12 245.55 71.06 28.52 69.56 9.3 0.71 232.26 86.68

Moving Average Forecasted Series k=6

287.28 286.48 286.68 285.82 283.88 281.98 279.81 277.26 274.18 271.25 268.4 267.31 265.75 268.6

Double Smoothing Error (e)

-7.78 -0.83 -2.32 -7.27 -7.48 -7.57 -15.61 -10.11 -7.38 -9.8 1.45 -2.26 15.55 9.6

946.32

εe²/34

27.83

Error² (e²)

k=2

60.58 0.69 5.41 52.8 56 57.38 243.62 102.18 54.39 96.04 2.1 5.1 241.8 92.16

1008.33 1012.05 1000.78 990.73 989.65 974.05 966.78 987.98 1004.8 1007.68 999.98 1003.5 1018.85 1040.05 1047.53 1033.83 1034.5 1043.08

1070.26

εe²/33

32.43

Double Smoothing Forecasted Series Yt+1

Error (e)

Error² (e²)

k=3

Forecasted Series Yt+1

Error (e)

Error² (e²)

1010.19 1006.41 995.75 990.19 981.85 970.41 977.38 996.39 1006.24 1003.83 1001.74 1011.18 1029.45 1043.79 1040.68 1034.16

-9.41 -15.69 -6.1 -16.14 -15.08 17.56 27.43 11.29 -6.26 -0.33 17.11 28.88 18.08 -9.96 -6.18 8.91

88.6 246.1 37.21 260.42 227.26 308.44 752.13 127.41 39.22 0.11 292.84 833.77 326.71 99.25 38.13 79.43

1007.65 1006.45 995.92 991.52 978.1 975.55 976.98 996.05 1004.25 1004.05 1003.38 1011.5 1030.1 1040.85 1040.08 1037.15 1037.12

1003.34 997.96 988.51 981.72 976.88 982.86 992.43 1001.45 1003.89 1006.31 1014.99 1027.48 1037.01 1039.36

-11.82 -19.86 -12.96 -4.74 19.17 21.39 11.62 1.93 7.61 23.79 25.86 12.6 0.14 -2.24

139.76 394.46 167.99 22.46 367.57 457.48 135.08 3.74 57.84 565.91 668.51 158.76 0.02 5.04

3757.01

εe²/35

107.34

3144.63

εe²/33

95.29

Double Smoothing k=4

1004.55 1001.39 995.21 982.39 978.21 981.01 985.79 997.83 1002.39 1005.59 1009.41 1021.78 1033.19 1036.94 1041.01 1038.45

Double Smoothing Forecasted Series Yt+1

995.88 989.3 984.21 981.85 985.71 991.75 997.9 1003.8 1009.79 1017.49 1025.33 1033.23

Error (e)

-17.67 -8.29 1.58 15.98 16.68 13.83 11.52 17.97 23.4 19.45 15.68 5.22

Error² (e²)

k=5

Forecasted Series Yt+1

312.3 68.68 2.5 255.2 278.16 191.39 132.61 322.99 547.41 378.18 246 27.27

1000.88 999.73 987.17 981.62 982.05 987.25 989.26 997.62 1003.95 1009.97 1018.05 1025.91 1031.59 1038.31 1041.28

990.29 987.56 985.47 987.56 992.03 997.61 1003.77 1011.1 1017.89 1024.77

2762.69

εe²/31

89.12

Double Smoothing Error (e)

-3.04 1.7 12.15 16.39 17.94 20.44 22.14 20.49 20.42 16.51

Error² (e²)

k=6

Forecasted Series Yt+1

Error (e)

Error² (e²)

9.24 2.88 147.62 268.63 321.99 417.79 490.18 419.84 416.81 272.71

999.58 992.28 985.73 984.25 987.08 989.9 990.52 999.72 1007.88 1017.08 1022.12 1025.79 1033.63 1038.98

989.8 988.29 989.53 993.22 998.69 1004.53 1010.52 1017.7

0.71 11.43 18.34 23.85 23.42 21.26 23.11 21.28

0.51 130.53 336.47 568.96 548.67 451.92 534.06 452.98

2767.7

εe²/29

95.44

3024.08

εe²/27

112

in this forecast exponentialsmoothing is the best method for forecast because of least error sum of square.

Exponential Smoothing Close Price Yt 998.85 1017.8 1006.3 995.25 986.2 993.1 955 978.55 997.4 1012.2 1003.15 996.8 1010.2 1027.5 1052.6 1042.45 1025.2 1043.8 1042.35 1018.9

Alpha = 0.3 Yt٨ 998.85 1017.8 1006.3 995.25 986.2 993.1 955 978.55 997.4 1012.2 1003.15 996.8 1010.2 1027.5 1052.6 1042.45 1025.2 1043.8 1042.35

or forecast because of least error sum of square.

Forecasted Series Yt+1٨aYt+(1-a)Yt=٨

Error (e)

Error² (e²)

1004.54 1014.35 1002.99 992.54 988.27 981.67 962.07 984.21 1001.84 1009.49 1001.25 1000.82 1015.39 1035.03 1049.56 1037.28 1030.78 1043.37 1035.32

-5.68 3.45 3.32 2.72 -2.07 11.43 -7.07 -5.65 -4.44 2.72 1.91 -4.02 -5.19 -7.53 3.05 5.17 -5.58 0.43 7.04

32.32 11.9 10.99 7.37 4.28 130.64 49.91 31.98 19.71 7.37 3.63 16.16 26.94 56.7 9.27 26.78 31.14 0.19 49.49

526.79

εe²/38

13.86