BALANCE OF PAYMENT OF INDIA
Presented byRANJIT SHETTY MAMTA BIST
31 04
WHAT IS BOP ? The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations. The BOP is determined by the country's exports and imports of goods, services, and financial capital, as well as financial transfers. It reflects all payments and liabilities to foreigners (debits) and all payments and obligations received from foreigners (credits). Balance of payments is one of the major indicators of a country's status in
BOP CONSISTS OF
The Current Account
The Capital Account
Official Reserves Account
Errors and Ommisions
CURRENT ACCOUNT Includes all imports and exports of goods and services. Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid. If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit. If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a trade surplus.
CURRENT ACCOUNT 1.
Export & Import of Merchandise & Services
3.
Income Account (The income account accounts mostly for investment income from dividends and interest on credit and payments on foreign taxes.) Transfer payment (Grants received / given, Pvt.Transfer)
5.
CAPITAL ACCOUNT 1. 2. 3. 4.
Foreign Investment(FDI, FII) Banking Capital (NRI Deposits) Short term credit External Commercial Borrowings(ECB)
CAPITAL ACCOUNT If foreign ownership of domestic financial assets has increased more quickly than domestic ownership of foreign assets in a given year, then the domestic country has a capital account surplus. On the other hand, if domestic ownership of foreign financial assets has increased more quickly than foreign ownership of domestic assets, then the domestic country has a capital account deficit.
OFFICIAL INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
The official international reserve account records the change in stock of official international reserve assets (also known as foreign exchange reserves) at the country's monetary authority .
Official reserves assets include gold reserves, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve positions in the IMF. {Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are potential claims on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.}
NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS
This is the last component of the balance of payments and principally exists to correct any possible errors made in accounting for the three other accounts
They are often referred to as "balancing items".
INDIA’S INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INDIA’S MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS
INDIA’S TRADE BASKET
APRIL – JUNE QUARTER 2008-09 (IN US $ BILLION ) Items
April-June 08
April-June 07
Jul-Sept 08
Jul-Sept 07
I.
Current Account
-10.7
-6.3
-12.5
-4.3
II .
Capital Account (net) (a to f)
12.9
17.5
7.8
33.5
a.Foreign Investment (i+ii)
5.9
10.1
4.3
13
(i) Foreign Direct Investment (ii) Portfolio Investment
10.1
2.6
5.6
2.1
-4.2
7.5
-1.3
10.9
b.Banking Capital
2.7
-0.9
2.1
6.6
0.8
-0.4
0.3
0.4
c.Short-Term Credit
2.2
1.8
NA
NA
d.External Assistance
0.3
0.2
NA
NA
e.External Commercial Borrowings f.Other items in capital account*
1.6
7.0
1.3
10.9
0.2
-0.7
NA
NA
Valuation change
0.2
3.0
NA
NA
Total (I+II+III)
2.4
14.2
-4.7
29.2
of which: NRI Deposits
II I.
(US $ BILLION)
INDIA’S BOP POSITION DURING THE 1ST HALF OF 2008-09 (APRIL-SEPT) Widening of Tr. Deficit resulting in large CAD, and moderation in capital flows. Merchandise trade deficit recorded a sharp increase during April-November 2008 on account of higher crude oil prices for most of the period and loss of momentum in exports since September 2008. Net surplus under invisibles remained buoyant, (led by increase in software exports and private transfers.) Net capital inflows reduced sharply and have remained volatile during 2008-09 so far.
…… CONTD
While the net inward FDI remained buoyant net outward FDI also remained high during April-September 2008. So the gross capital inflows were higher on account of higher FDI inflows and NRI deposits during the period.
The revised short-term debt maturing up to March 2009, was estimated at around US $ 85 billion as at end-March 2008.
…. CONTD
India’s merchandise exports during April-Nov 2008 increased by 18.7 % while imports recorded a higher growth of 32.5 %, largely due to the rise in (POL) imports. The rise in oil imports was primarily due to the elevated international crude oil prices, while the volume of oil imports moderated.
EXPORTS
Decline in exports 1.1% drop to $ 12.7 billon in Dec 08 12.1% drop in Oct 08 9.9% drop in Nov 08
22% drop in Jan 09
Decline of exports in following sectors: (Dec 08) Handicraft & Handlooms 64% Textile 13% Gems & Jewellery 21%
EXPORTS
Increase in exports Eng. Goods, Phama & Agri. Products (in the range of 19-25%)
India’s estimated exports $ 170 billion FY 08-09 $ 160 billion FY 07-08 Govt set target $ 200 billion
IMPORTS
Imports grew by 8.8% to $ 20.25 b in Dec 08 Non oil imports 30.9% to $15.54 b (consisting of Capital Equipment & Proj. Goods) This suggests a robust domestic activity.
TRADE DEFICIT
$ 7.57 Billion in Dec 08 $ 10.07 Billion in Nov 08
Tr. Deficit for 1st 9 months is $ 93.8 billion (74% higher than S 58.98 b in the year ago period )
Lower Oil Imports over Jan- Mar will enable to end this fiscal with a Tr. Deficit of about 40% higher than last year’s.
INWARD REMITTANCES
Indicated to touch $ 40 billion in year 2008 (World Bank projection was $ 30 billion )
In 2007, No. 1 was India (27 billion) No.2 was China (25.7 billion)
Unlike FIIs flows, inward remittances are considered to be extremely sticky Mostly from Blue collar workers(not more than $ 500 per month)
FOREX RESERVES
Import cover of India’s foreign exchange reserves declined to 11.2 months as at endSeptember ‘08 as against 14.4 months as at end-March ‘08 in sync with the fall in reserves, the RBI said in its half-yearly report on forex reserves.
As of January 16, 2009, foreign exchange reserves at US $ 252.2 billion declined by US $ 57.5 billion over the level at end-March 2008
ECB & FCCB Even after Indian govt. relaxed overseas borrowing norms for corporates, loans have failed to pick up.(as foreign banks curb lending) During Oct- Dec 2008, inflows through ECB & FCCB were only $ 4.5 b against $ 8.1 b in Oct –Dec 2007
Borrowings through ECB & FCCBs dipped 32% in 2008. Indian companies borrowed $ 22.7 b during the year as compared to $33.1 b in 2007
THE GLOBAL SCENE
Commodity & oil prices have come down
Subprime crisis
IS INDIA HEADING TOWARDS BOP CRISIS OR NOT ? What is BoP crisis Sufficient Forex Reserves Volatility of FII
FACTORS IMPACTING BOP Trade Agreement Trade Policy Currency Exchange Rate Tax , Tariff and Trade Barriers
IMPACT OF STIMULUS PACKAGE Trade Interest Interest subversion Exemption of Tax
MEASURES FOR MAKING BOP FAVOURABLE Diversification of Trade Development of New Industries Concentrate on selected sectors Concentrating on Frugal engineering skills Incentives related to Trade
Thank You