Bajr 2009 - Survey Report (march)

The Bottom Line  There have been severe redundancies in archaeology particularly for some sectors and certain sizes of company. However, redundancy is far from universal for all sectors and sizes. For 80% of consultancies, 54% of contractors and 100% of specialist companies redundancy is not and has not been on the agenda. There is hope also for the moment that the worst might be over. No consultancies are planning redundancies and only 10% of contractors intend making people redundant in the next three months. 16% of contractors, 30% of consultants and 38% of specialist companies report an increase in the number of enquiries and there is a similar increase in the number of DBAs being undertaken. In terms of geographical area Ireland is clearly the worst hit area. In our view the wide variation in what is happening makes it difficult to interpret the statistics with any certainty. The data set was 102 responses out of 189 companies. What is clear is that there has been a major expansion which has been followed by a major contraction in a very short period of time. Similarly it is clear that archaeology has enjoyed a period of continuous growth since1995 and at some point this had to come to an end. Purpose of the Survey  When David Connolly and myself were discussing the recent IFA survey we thought that it: • Only included all RAO and members of Fame which while it represents a significant proportion of all archaeological employers is not exhaustive. • Did not collect info on geographical area of work. • Did not collect info on indicators of what might happen in the coming months. Both of us had noticed a recent up swing in the number of enquiries and we wondered if the worst might be over. The BAJR survey was designed to compliment the IFA survey and to get a pointer about what might happen next. Our take on the situation is as follows: Some of us had been predicting a major drop in work following the peak in the summer of 2007 when availability was a key factor in tender competitions for large 100k plus projects. At one point major units were not even bidding for such tenders because they had so much work on. There was simply a shortage of archaeological contractors. When the down turn was going to come was a topic of conversation at the BAJR Conference in 2006. My own business started to contract by April 2007 and it was clear there was a lack of confidence in the market at that time. The advent of the credit crunch in the summer of 2007 was swift amongst many major developers and many projects were simply halted in their tracks. A contraction in pipeline work also occurred in 2008. The collapse in house prices, particularly flats, led to many schemes no longer being viable. In January 2008 lay offs and shortages of work for building contractors was commonplace. Lending to developers became increasingly difficult and at present there is very little development finance. In addition lenders are more cautious about end users for buildings and their viability. Developers’ cash flows are poor. 1

Historic Environment Consultancy 38 Elvendon Rd Goring on Thames Oxon RG8 0DU, T01491 875584 F01491 875239 E:[email protected] www.historicenvironment.co.uk

Anecdotal evidence on the BAJR board and the number of adverts placed were a good line of evidence of just how big the slowdown was. It was clear that say 25% of excavation staff on temporary contracts were being laid off in droves. To an extent the 7% annual rise in the number of people employed in archaeology was driven by an expanding property market and there had to come a point when development in Historic Cities was more or less complete. The IFA survey has indicated that the level of employment is at the same level as it was a few years ago. A contracting market for private sector archaeology is something new. At a strategic level there will have to be consideration about all sorts of matters - however this is not what this survey is about. It would be wrong to make predictions about is going to happen in the archaeological jobs market in the next six months. There are many factors at work which could quickly change things for better or worse. At BAJR we think the predictions being made by the CBA et al are pessimistic and based on a premise of what could happen if things continue the way they are. The barometers we used are just indicators but are worth considering. If things continue as we predict then perhaps we can breathe a sigh of relief that the worst might be over in three or four months time. The IFA will be conducting another survey in April. We would urge them to: • collect as big a data set as possible • poll on the barometers such things as number of enquiries, quotes. • establish what the reduction is of permanent and contract staff. • We would also urge them to collect data monthly. • To monitor what archaeological businesses go into liquidation – by definition they will not respond to polls. • It is vital that people know what the true situation is. Life changing decisions will be made based on the perceptions of what is going to happen. The Following questions were asked: Question 3 asked if any redundancies were planned to gain an idea of just how bad the melt down was going to be. Question 4 asked are you in formal redundancy procedures, again a barometer of what might happen. The purpose of question 5 was to see if there was an upturn in the very first stages of work being undertaken and Question 6 was to see if there was an upturn in the very first stage of the PPG 16 process. The thinking being that if an upturn in these was present this would in turn lead to an upturn in evaluation and excavations and thus jobs Dr Peter Wardle 3/3/2009 2

Historic Environment Consultancy 38 Elvendon Rd Goring on Thames Oxon RG8 0DU, T01491 875584 F01491 875239 E:[email protected] www.historicenvironment.co.uk

The figures  Will Things Improve? Type Consultants Specialist Contractors

Contractors All Types

Size All All Size Group 1 2_5 5_20 21_50 50+ All

PERCENTAGES Consultants All Specialist All Contractors Size Group 1 2_5 5_20 21_50 50+ Contractors All All

Number Replied 19 21

Have Made people redundant 3 0

No redundancies and none planned

Redundancy Planned

15 21

8 14 23 12 5 62 102

3 10 5 3 21 24

11 10 4 2 27 63

0 6 5 2 13 13

19 21

16% 0%

79% 100%

8 14 23 12 5 62

21% 43% 42% 60% 34%

102

24%

Redundancy Consultation 1

More Enquiries 7 7

More DBAs 5 2

No 6 3

Unsure 8 13

Yes 5 5

0 3 5 2 10 11

4 4 4 2 0 14 28

1 1 4 2 0 8 15

1 4 1 3 1 10 19

2 5 16 5 3 31 52

5 5 5 4 1 20 30

0% 0%

5% 0%

37% 33%

26% 10%

32% 14%

42% 62%

26% 24%

79% 43% 33% 40% 44%

0% 26% 42% 40% 21%

0% 13% 42% 40% 16%

29% 17% 17% 0% 23%

7% 17% 17% 0% 13%

29% 4% 25% 20% 16%

36% 70% 42% 60% 50%

36% 22% 33% 20% 32%

62%

13%

11%

27%

15%

19%

52%

29%

3

Historic Environment Consultancy 38 Elvendon Rd Goring on Thames Oxon RG8 0DU, T01491 875584 F01491 875239 E:[email protected] www.historicenvironment.co.uk