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AT: OBAMA GOOD – IRAN MPX 1. WAR WITH IRAN IS INEVITABLE NOW – BUSH IS PLANNING COVERTLY, MCCAIN ATTACK WON’T MATTER HERSH, 7/7 [Seymour. “Preparing the Battlefield” The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh]
Late l ast year, Congress agreed to a request from P resident Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclearweapons program.Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. United States Special Operations Forces have been conducting crossborder operations from southern Iraq, with Presidential authorization, since last year. These have included seizing members of Al Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of “highvalue targets” in the President’s war on terror, who may be captured or killed. But the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which involve the Central Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), have now been significantly expanded, according to the current and former officials. Many of these activities are not specified in the new Finding, and some congressional leaders have had serious questions about their nature. Under federal law, a Presidential Finding, which is highly classified, must be issued when a covert intelligence operation gets under way and, at a minimum, must be made known to Democratic and Republican leaders in the House and the Senate and to the ranking members of their respective intelligence committees—the socalled Gang of Eight. Money for the operation can then be reprogrammed from previous appropriations, as needed, by
. “The Finding was focussed on undermining Iran’s nuclear ambitions and trying to undermine the government through regime change,” a person familiar with its contents said, and involved “working with opposition groups and passing money.” The Finding provided for a whole new range of activities in southern Iran and in the areas, in the east, where Baluchi political opposition is strong, he said.Although some legislators were troubled by aspects of the Finding, and “there was a significant amount of highlevel discussion” about it, according to the source familiar with it, the funding for the escalation was approved. In other words, some members of the Democratic leadership—Congress has been under Democratic control since the 2006 elections—were willing, in secret, to go along with the Administration in expanding covert activities directed at Iran, while the Party’s presumptive candidate for President, Barack Obama, has said that he favors direct talks and diplomacy.The request for funding came in the same period in which the Administration was coming to terms with a National Intelligence Estimate, released in December, that concluded that Iran had halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003. The Administration downplayed the significance of the N.I.E., and, while saying that it was committed to diplomacy, continued to emphasize that urgent action was essential to counter the Iranian nuclear threat. President Bush questioned the N.I.E.’s conclusions, and senior nationalsecurity officials, including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, made similar statements. the relevant congressional committees, which also can be briefed
AT: OBAMA GOOD – IRAN MPX 2. NO RISK OF AN IMPACT AND TURN 1. NO DEFENITIVE EVIDENCE THAT MCCAIN WILL STRIKE 2. OBAMA IS KEEPING THE MILITARY THREAT ON THE TABLE TOO – THIS IS A SCENARIO FOR US HERSH, 7/7 [Seymour. “Preparing the Battlefield” The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh] Scheunemann, who is known as a neoconservative, is also the McCain campaign’s most important channel of communication with the White House. He is a friend of David Addington, Dick Cheney’s chief of staff. I have heard differing accounts of Scheunemann’s influence with McCain; though some close to the McCain campaign talk about him as a possible nationalsecurity adviser, others say he is someone who isn’t taken seriously while “telling Cheney and others what they want to hear,” as a senior McCain adviser put it. It is not known whether McCain, who is the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, has been formally briefed on the operations in Iran. At the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, in June, Obama repeated his plea for “tough and principled diplomacy.” But he also said, along with McCain, that he would keep the threat of military action against Iran on the table.
3. DOUBLE BIND – EITHER THEIR SYRIAN STRIKES SCENARIO IS NON UNIQUE BECAUSE SYRIAISRAEL PEACE TALKS ARE PROGRESSING NOW OR THE IMPACT IS INEVITABLE BECAUSE SYRIA IS PISSED ABOUT THE GOLAN OWELS,8/6 [Khaled Y“Talks with Israel Making Progress; Syrian Official” http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL636378520080806]
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Indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel have made progress but not enough to move to facetoface talks as favored by the Jewish state, a senior Syrian official said on Wednesday "If the talks had not progressed then they would have been stopped," said Buthaina Shaaban, DAMASCUS (Reuters)
who was recently promoted from expatriates minister to adviser to President Bashar alAssad.Shaaban would not be drawn on what was discussed in four rounds of talks held in Turkey since May. She said the talks will continue despite the impending resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
."We are not concerned with whether
Olmert resigns or not. We are not a party to internal Israeli issues," Shaaban told reporters.Diplomats in the Syrian capital said the Turkishmediated talks have
mostly covered old ground tackled in previous negotiations between Syria and Israel in the 1990s.Olmert, who has recently intensified his calls on Syria to resume direct talks, announced last
.Shaaban said there would be no direct talks until the Damascus government was certain Israel would return all of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war. week that he was resigning over a corruption scandal once his Kadima party elects a new leader next month
AT: OBAMA GOOD BUSH DOCTRINE
1. This is an impact for us – Obama supports the Bush Doctrine HUFFINGTON POST, 8/4 [“The Molten Core of Barack: Why Obama Can’t Win” Castenellos, Alex. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alexcastellanos/themoltencoreofbarack_b_116904.html]
Obama now billboards his doubts about affirmative action. He has embraced the Bush Doctrine of pre emption saying, "I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon...everything." He tells his party "Democrats are not for a bigger government." Oil drilling is a consideration. His FISA vote and abandonment of public campaign finance introduce us to an Obama of recent invention. And as he abandons his old identity for the new, breeding disenchantment among his formerly passionate leftofcenter supporters and, equally, doubts among the center he courts, he risks becoming nothing at all, a candidate who is Generalelection
everything and nothing in the same moment. In one of the most powerful marketing books of the past few years, Authenticity, an exploration of our demand for what's real in an increasingly contrived world, authors Gilmore and Pine quote philosophy professor Crispin Sartwell about Al Gore. "Every attempt to regain authenticity," Crispin says, "only casts a new, infinitely repeated image through the hall of mirrors that is his political life and our media experience of that life." Those reflections set the authenticity of John McCain in highrelief. McCain has revealed himself to his core.
More evidence NEW YORK SUN, ‘7 [“The ClintonObama Bush Doctrine” http://www.nysun.com/editorials/clinton obamabushdoctrine/66665/] he big news out of the most recent Democratic presidential debate was that two of the leading Democratic candidates, Senator Clinton and Senator Obama, endorsed the Bush Doctrine that is at the core of our current president's foreign policy. We haven't seen it reported anywhere else, but it's a big story. Here's what Mrs. Clinton said: "There's absolutely a connection between a democratic regime and heightened security for the United States." Here's what Mr. Obama said: "The more we see repression, the more there are no outlets for how people can express themselves and their aspirations, the worse off we're going to be, and the more antiAmerican sentiment there's going to be in the Middle East." Or, as President Bush has put it in enunciating what has come to be known as the Bush Doctrine: "For decades, free nations tolerated oppression in the Middle East for the sake of stability. In practice, this approach brought little stability and much oppression, so I have changed this policy." Or, as he put it again, "Some who call themselves realists question whether the spread of democracy in the Middle East should be any concern of ours. But the realists in this case have lost contact with a fundamental reality: America has always been less secure when freedom is in retreat; America is always more secure when freedom is on the march."Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama spoke their share of silliness during the debate, and they lost no opportunity to criticize the president. But the comments they made about the connection between freedom, democracy, and American national security are a reminder though it may be fashionable to talk about how divided America is, there is a broad consensus on certain key principles, a consensus that extends from Mr. Bush on the right to Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton on the left.
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2. Their Falk evidence doesn’t say why a policy of preemption causes other nations to attack each other – their evidence only talks about preemption in the Middle Eastproves they can’t access their impacts
AT: OBAMA GOOD BUSH DOCTRINE 3. Indo/Pak Conflict is inevitable – recent troop skirmishes created tension – historical and cultural fueds over KASHMIR is the ROOT of conflict US preemption is irrelevant CNN, 7/28 [2008. “India/Pakistan in Kashmir ‘major skirmish’ http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/07/28/india.pakistan/] border clash between Indian and Pakistani troops sparked heavy fighting Monday in the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir, an Indian military spokeswoman reported. The fighting, which killed one Indian soldier, marks the first major skirmish between South Asia's nuclear rivals since a 2003 ceasefire.It began Monday afternoon, when an Indian patrol encountered about 10 to 12 Pakistani soldiers across the Line of Control separating the territory, Capt. Neha Goyal told CNN.The Pakistani troops "started firing on our patrol," she said. "There was one fatal casualty. Our troops also retaliated, and the Pakistan army troopers ran back."Efforts to reach Pakistani officials for comment were unsuccessful late Monday. Goyal said Indian officials were not aware of any Pakistani casualties, but said heavy fighting was still going on late Monday.Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged periodic gunfire since May, but Monday's clashes appear to be a serious setback to the ongoing peace process between the two nations.India and Pakistan had announced a bilateral ceasefire all along their borders in November 2003 and the ceasefire had been holding on the borders until recently.Kashmir has been at the root of two wars between India and Pakistan, both of which tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
AT:OBAMA GOOD UN CREDIBILITY 1. UN CREDIBILITY TERMINALLY NONUNIQUE – UNILATERAL WAR WITH IRAQ UNDERMINED THE UN AS AN EFFECTIVE BODY OF DIPLOMACY 2. Their impact evidence is powertagged it doesn’t say the world nuclear war 3. Non unique and no impact – UN failure to solve the genocide in Darfur PROVES credibility is shot now AND proves the UN can’t solve war ANNAN, 05 [Kofi. “Without Reform on Human Rights Bod,y UN Credbility is at Stake, Annan Says” UN News Center.
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http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=13895&Cr=commission&Cr1=rights] Speaking on the eleventh anniversary of the start of the Rwanda genocide and addressing the very human rights body he wants to replace, Secretary-General Kofi Annan today warned Member States that without reform of
the United Nations human rights machinery, the credibility of the world body itself is at stake.“Unless we re-make our human rights machinery, we may be unable to renew public confidence in the United Nations itself,” he told the 53-member UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva, urging support for his proposal to replace it with a leaner, more authoritative and more empowered body elected by a two-thirds vote of the General Assembly.The era of declaration is now giving way, as it should, to an era of implementation,” he added, of what he called the past 60 years of articulating, codifying and enshrining rights.“Today we have reached another moment when we must prove our commitment,” he said, recalling “our collective failure to protect hundreds of thousands of
defenceless people” in the Rwanda massacres and the resolve “to act more decisively to ensure that such a denial of our common humanity is never allowed to happen again.”And yet, in the Darfur region of western Sudan, where Government, militia and rebel forces are mired in a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and uprooted more than 2 million, there is “appalling suffering,” with an African Union force on the ground that is too small to provide security, and with virtually no progress towards a political settlement, he said.“For all of us, as individuals and as an institution, this situation is a test. For thousands of men, women and children, our response is already too late,” Mr. Annan said.“We have reached a point at
which the Commission’s declining credibility has cast a shadow on the reputation of the United Nations system as a whole, and where piecemeal reforms will not be enough,” he added of his proposal to establish a Human Rights Council on a par with the Security Council and the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).