Assessing Energy Futures 2
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LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR U.S. ENERGY MARKETS Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration National Council for Science and the Environment 6th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment January 27, 2006 Washington, DC
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection • Major oil-producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path • Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively high oil prices • Cost of doing business increasing • Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 80 History
Projections
60
40
20 History AEO2005 AEO2006 0 1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 150 History
Projections
125
Coal
100
Natural Gas
75
50
Petroleum 25
Nuclear Renewables
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.2 History
Projections
1.0
per dollar real GDP per capita
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 1970
1980
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 45 40 35
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day) 30
27.9
27.6 26.1
25
23.0
Electric Power Industrial
22.2
20.8
Residential and Commercial
20
15 Transportation
10
5
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units) 2,000
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
1,500
1,000
500
0 Hybrids* *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Diesel
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History
Projections
7 6 5 4
History AEO2005 AEO2006
3 2 1 0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30.7
30
27.0 25.4
25
26.9
23.4
22.4
Electric Power
20
15
Industrial
10 Commercial
5
Residential Transportation
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
2,000
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (million short tons) 1,784 1,592
1,508
1,500 1,233
1,229 1,104
1,000
Electric Power
500 Coal to Liquids Other
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,341
5,220
4,956
5,000
Transportation Industrial
4,000
4,070
3,978
3,567 Commercial
3,000
2,000
1,000
Residential
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006 2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4,000
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
57 - percent of total 50 53
3,000
2,000
50 24 20 14 16 15
1,000
20 17 18 9
8 10 9 3 3 2 2
0 Coal
Nuclear
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Natural Gas
Renewable
Petroleum
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) AEO2006 8,115 in 2030
History
9,000
Projections AEO2005 8,062 in 2025
History AEO2005 AEO2006
8,000
AEO2005 6,627 in 2010
7,000
AEO2006 7,587 in 2025
6,000 AEO2006 6,365 in 2010
5,000
Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025 (metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)
4,000
1,000 AEO2006 503 in 2010
800
3,000
600
2,000
AEO2006 411 in 2025
AEO2006 351 in 2030
400 AEO2005 506 in 2010
200
1,000
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
AEO2005 397 in 2025
2020 2025 2030
0 1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....
• • • • • •
U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58 percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, December 2005, full report, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005
Examples of Special Analyses Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005
www.eia.doe.gov Guy Caruso [email protected]
Backup Slides
U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History
Projection s
120
33% 100
Net Imports Consumption
80
29%
Production
60
40 20
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History
Projections
25
20
Consumption
Net Imports
15
62%
58%
10
Domestic Supply
5
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (miles per gallon) 35
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 New Car
New Light-Duty Vehicle Average Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for light trucks. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
New Light-Duty Truck
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30
History
Projections
25
Consumption
Net Imports
21%
15%
20
Production 15
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 7
10
5 4 3
5
2
6.4
2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
6
2.8
4.1
4.4
2.3 1.2 1.2 0.6
1 0
0 1960
Pipeline
1970
1980
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Liquefied Natural Gas
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28
26
Growth in Alaskan Production
24
Growth in LNG Imports
22 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional
20 Base Production (all sources)
18
16 2005
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2015
2020
2025
2030
U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per ton) History
Projections
50
History AEO2005 AEO2006
40
30
20
10
0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2004 cents per kilowatthour) History
10
Projections
8
6
History AEO2005 AEO2006
4
2
0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts) 1,400
New Nuclear
1,200
New Renewable
New Coal
1,000
Needed Capacity
New Natural Gas Existing Other Fossil Steam
800
Existing Combustion Turbine
600
Existing Coal Steam
400
Existing Combined-Cycle 200
Existing Renewable Existing Nuclear
Existing Pumped Storage
0 2005
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2015
2020
2025
2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....
• • • • • •
U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58 percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection • Major oil-producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path • Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively high oil prices • Cost of doing business increasing • Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 80 History
Projections
60
40
20 History AEO2005 AEO2006 0 1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 150 History
Projections
125
Coal
100
Natural Gas
75
50
Petroleum 25
Nuclear Renewables
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.2 History
Projections
1.0
per dollar real GDP per capita
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 1970
1980
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 45 40 35
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day) 30
27.9
27.6 26.1
25
23.0
Electric Power Industrial
22.2
20.8
Residential and Commercial
20
15 Transportation
10
5
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units) 2,000
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
1,500
1,000
500
0 Hybrids* *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Diesel
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History
Projections
7 6 5 4
History AEO2005 AEO2006
3 2 1 0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30.7
30
27.0 25.4
25
26.9
23.4
22.4
Electric Power
20
15
Industrial
10 Commercial
5
Residential Transportation
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
2,000
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (million short tons) 1,784 1,592
1,508
1,500 1,233
1,229 1,104
1,000
Electric Power
500 Coal to Liquids Other
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006
2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector, 2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,341
5,220
4,956
5,000
Transportation Industrial
4,000
4,070
3,978
3,567 Commercial
3,000
2,000
1,000
Residential
0 2004
AEO2005
AEO2006
2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
AEO2005
AEO2006 2025
AEO2006 2030
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4,000
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
57 - percent of total 50 53
3,000
2,000
50 24 20 14 16 15
1,000
20 17 18 9
8 10 9 3 3 2 2
0 Coal
Nuclear
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Natural Gas
Renewable
Petroleum
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) AEO2006 8,115 in 2030
History
9,000
Projections AEO2005 8,062 in 2025
History AEO2005 AEO2006
8,000
AEO2005 6,627 in 2010
7,000
AEO2006 7,587 in 2025
6,000 AEO2006 6,365 in 2010
5,000
Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025 (metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)
4,000
1,000 AEO2006 503 in 2010
800
3,000
600
2,000
AEO2006 411 in 2025
AEO2006 351 in 2030
400 AEO2005 506 in 2010
200
1,000
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
AEO2005 397 in 2025
2020 2025 2030
0 1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....
• • • • • •
U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58 percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, December 2005, full report, February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005
Examples of Special Analyses Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005
www.eia.doe.gov Guy Caruso [email protected]
Backup Slides
U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History
Projection s
120
33% 100
Net Imports Consumption
80
29%
Production
60
40 20
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History
Projections
25
20
Consumption
Net Imports
15
62%
58%
10
Domestic Supply
5
0 1960
1970
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (miles per gallon) 35
2004 History AEO2005 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 New Car
New Light-Duty Vehicle Average Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for light trucks. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
New Light-Duty Truck
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30
History
Projections
25
Consumption
Net Imports
21%
15%
20
Production 15
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 7
10
5 4 3
5
2
6.4
2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 - 2025 AEO2006 - 2030
6
2.8
4.1
4.4
2.3 1.2 1.2 0.6
1 0
0 1960
Pipeline
1970
1980
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
Liquefied Natural Gas
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28
26
Growth in Alaskan Production
24
Growth in LNG Imports
22 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional
20 Base Production (all sources)
18
16 2005
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2015
2020
2025
2030
U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030 (2004 dollars per ton) History
Projections
50
History AEO2005 AEO2006
40
30
20
10
0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2004 cents per kilowatthour) History
10
Projections
8
6
History AEO2005 AEO2006
4
2
0 1970
1980
1990
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts) 1,400
New Nuclear
1,200
New Renewable
New Coal
1,000
Needed Capacity
New Natural Gas Existing Other Fossil Steam
800
Existing Combustion Turbine
600
Existing Coal Steam
400
Existing Combined-Cycle 200
Existing Renewable Existing Nuclear
Existing Pumped Storage
0 2005
2010
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2015
2020
2025
2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....
• • • • • •
U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58 percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
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