Ambuguity Of Indian Missile System

Ambiguous Credibility of Indian Missile System; Consequences By *Amanullah Khan Note: The views presented in the article are that of the author’s and do not necessarily represent the viewpoint of the Institute.

O

ne way to project military power for greater destruction is the use of missiles in modern warfare. Technically advanced missiles can cause immense damage to enemy assets. The credibility of a missile force is

heavily dependent on the accuracy of the system and the ability of the system to penetrate enemy defenses. India has spent valuable resources on building a strong missile capability. It has a series of missiles which are set to achieve different objectives. Whether the missile capability building is Pakistan centric or China centric, is not an important question because the

real test of time will come when

and how these systems are used

during war situations and whether or not there are effective doctrinal nuances to stop an accidental launch.. The Indian chain of command or their oscillating military doctrine (limited to total war) leaves much to be desired. Faced with these odds Pakistani counter measures are certainly aimed to deter India at its best. However before we take the debate further two aspects needs to be understood first is the ownership of the command and control and second is the credibility of the Indian missiles. Looking at the Indian missile capability following facts are visible:

India has both cruise and ballistic missiles. The latest long range ballistic missile of India is Agni-III which is capable of reaching the range of 3500 km. Nag is the shortest range (4 to 6 km) an anti-tank missile. In between them are the series of Prithvi and Agni. Brahmos is the latest supersonic cruise missile, and some other like Akash and Trishul are anti-aircraft missiles. It is well understood that Indian missiles are able to reach each corner of Pakistan but it is also an admitted fact that India’s missile program has major technological shortcomings. Many of missile trials have been officially declared as failed tests and there are so many unsuccessful tests which have been declared as successful for certain political reason, and this is a grim reality. When we say failed then it means the credibility is not believable and trustworthy. The quality of missile system is as important as the quantity and most importantly their respective command and control. The reason is that missile is launched for a set target, if that target is not hit accurately, then the use of missile is worthless if not suicidal as it increases the capacity of the theatre of war begging answer to the question in the current crises that is India prepared to have an all out war with Pakistan and can the missiles ever be used as precision guided munitions; the short answer is perhaps a negative as any use of missile could easily lead to a counter response by Pakistan or even an accidental nuclear launch .. as there is

tenable measure through which we can decipher a conventional or a

nuclear strike launch in its inception Phase; hence increasing the risk of an accidental nuclear war in region already fraught with the uncertainty of war. . There is no doubt that South Asia is now a days at the verge of a nuclear war between and India. Taking advantage of the Mumbai terrorist attack, Indian perhaps in collusion with extra regional powers are believes that a preemptive strike on Pakistan will be palatable to Islamabad ; the fact is it will lead war with Pakistan. Whether Indian leadership believes in such a fallacy vis-à-vis Pakistan or can absorb the pressure from abroad or not, has to be decided by the Indian government. But the unacceptable consequences of war with a nuclear armed Pakistan should not be lost sight of by the Indian leadership if they want to rise as regional power let alone a global power. Increasing the war rhetoric or challenging Pakistani defence capabilities favour of war would lead both rivals for large scale mutual destruction. It is expected and

is a rational choice too that war could not be imposed on Pakistan without an acceptable of incalculable loss to India itself ; which no sober leadership in India would accept or looks forward to .. But in case of Pak-India possible war, which India calls it, ‘limited war’ it will not be limited for Pakistan as Islamabad maintains that the assured Defence of ‘each inch of the terrority is the prime responsibility and directive of the Pakistan defence forces’ India’s missile attack will be strongly retaliated by Pakistan particularly as no Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system is capable of thwarting a counter Pakistani strike. Therefore, there is no way to intercept a Pakistani missile response. Pakistan missiles can penetrate deep into Indian territory; changing the specter of war from conventional to even nuclear. * The author is a Research Fellow at South Asian Strategic Institute (SASSI).