Advice For The Next U.s. President

Advice for the Next U.S. President 10-28 15:57 Caijing Magazine comments( 2 )

The winner of the U.S. election should work with China as a strategic partner to resolve the economic crisis, not as a mere financial firefighter.

By Hu Shuli

The U.S. presidential election was just days away when this edition of Caijing went to press. Opinion polls showed Democratic candidate Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain. We did not choose sides. Rather, we watched the election campaign as a prelude to what could be a major breakthrough in Sino-American relations, regardless of who wins. We expect bilateral ties to strengthen in light of the global financial crisis.

The history of Sino-American relations over the past 40 years shows that, no matter whether Republicans or Democrats are in power, national interests – not partisan politics or personalities – influence the highs and lows of bilateral relations. So regardless of who is elected November 4, we expect to see a new relationship emerge. We hope to see something similar to the “Nixon shock” of the 1970s.

We believe the next U.S. president, after grasping the common interests of our two countries for the coming years, should work with China as a strategic partner for resolving the most serious financial crisis since 1929. He should invite China to participate on equal footing in designing a future multilateral system for global finance. He should put an end to the ambivalence about a

rising China. Working hand-in-hand with China, he should break the 40-yearold mold of Sino-American relations.

Starting with former U.S. president Richard Nixon’s ice-breaking visit to Beijing in 1972, the four decades of Sino-American relations have spanned three periods: from the beginning of the Nixon presidency in 1969 until the fall of the Soviet Union in ’89; the post-Cold War period from 1990 to ’99; and the current century. The first two periods saw similar cycles, marked by the bringing together of common interests and tearing apart after tragedies such as the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident and the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. After each incident, time healed and memories faded, allowing a new cycle to begin.

A graph drawn according to the rise and fall of Sino-American relations would follow moderate improvements on a slowly rising slope. But abrupt disruptions would be marked by sharp cliffs. With every cliff, painstaking gains made over long periods were lost. Before the end of the Cold War, China played a role in the balance of power between the United States and the Soviet Union. After the Cold War, China and the United States became increasingly interdependent through trade and economic globalization. But through the years, these relations have been colored by mutual suspicions, a lack of trust, conflicting interests and cultural clashes.

Today, Sino-American ties are the most important bilateral relations in the world. The importance to both U.S. and China, as well as every nation in the global village, requires that we break from the trend of past decades by building stable relations for the long term. This will be possible if the two

countries work together to tackle the current financial crisis that began in the United States and spread worldwide.

This is not a mere dream. China is among the developing countries that, as the financial crisis continues, carry a load as exporters of capital to developed countries. What’s more, developing countries including China, if they continue their recent momentum for development, will help reduce the impact of the crisis and control the recession, even preventing another Great Depression. China already has pledged to maintain steady growth for its domestic economy. This is the most important contribution China can make at this time -- to buttress the global economy.

China has expressed its willingness to strengthen international coordination and cooperation. During the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago, the United States led an international bailout. Today, it’s not the same. This crisis started on Wall Street and has engulfed the entire world. So stabilizing the global financial system and preparing for a turnaround calls for a multilateral framework. China’s role is important in this setting.

Equally important is how the United States treats China. If the two countries can, at this juncture, begin fostering long-term cooperation with mutual trust and sincerity, the world will benefit.

Resolving the crisis is not an internal affair for the United States. The United States should not take a unilateral approach and argue national security as a basis for setting its economic agenda. What often worries many countries is that the United States will turn its back on the globalization it championed and slide into protectionism. From trade to investment to economic decisions,

such economic unilateralism and protectionism would ultimately hurt the United States, China and the world economy for years to come.

Resolving the current crisis and rebuilding a global economic system for the future calls for cooperation between the United States and China. This is imperative, not only because China holds the largest foreign currency reserves and has an increasing degree of global economic clout, but also because China and the United States are on opposite sides of the same coin. The steep, deficit spending mode of the United States and the high savingsinvestment-export mode exemplified by China have contributed to global imbalance. Now we face the rebalancing that many economists had predicted for some time. Working on just one side is not enough. A smooth transformation can be managed only if China and the United States join forces. With vital mutual interests, the two sides can become indispensable partners.

Outgoing President George W. Bush has called a financial crisis summit of 20 nations, including China, for November 15. His was a step in the right direction. But it was not enough. The future U.S. president should see that rebalancing the global economy is a multilateral process. It should be a longterm process that reshapes the international economy and financial system. China is not just a firefighter for this process. The tone of Sino-American relations should be set in the context of multilateral efforts to rebalance the world economy.

To be sure, since the turn of the century, the United States has tried to recalibrate bilateral relations vis-à-vis a rising China. The latest attempt is casting China in the international system as a “responsible stakeholder,”

which has elicited a reserved response from China. On the other hand, China’s use of the expressions “peaceful rise” and “peaceful development” underscores its search for a low profile place in the international system.

Based on current conditions, changes should be made by the United States as well as China. A good start would be to form a strategic partnership on the global financial crisis. Over the long term, the two sides can build lasting and broad mutual trust. Now, as the election approaches, we are pinning our hopes on the United States to take the first step.