Addressing Crisis And Conflict

Dr. Neric Acosta Faculty, Department of Political Science

Addressing Crisis and Conflict: Challenges for Institutional Reform and Governance

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Institutions

Inclusion

Investments

“THE THREE I’s”

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

LAND OF PROMISE -Natural resources -Cultural diversity - Locus/ driver of economic growth

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

BROKEN PROMISES -Historical Injustices -Armed Conflict Early 1970s-1990s (MNLF) Late 1970s-Present (MILF)

-Poverty and Social Exclusion High Poverty Incidence/ Inequities

-Terrorism 1990s-Present (Abu Sayyaf)

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

MEMORANDUM OF AGREEMENTANCESTRAL DOMAIN Towards perpetual peace – or strife?

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

PRIMACY OF INSTITUTIONS - good governance - accountable government - democracy/rule of law (predictability and continuity)

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONS MATTER “Institutions that enabled markets underpinned economic success stories; institutions that stifled markets were accompanied by stagnation.” -Douglass North

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONS MATTER Two Kinds of Institutions: 1.Those that affect the cost of doing business, reduce the cost of market exchange; 2.Those that protect property rights (constitutions, separation of powers, electoral accountability).

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL ANOMALIES - Jose Pidal - Diosdado Macapagal Highway - Jueteng Payola - Garci Scandal - Fertilizer Scam - P.P. 1017 - E.0. 464 - Oplan Bantay Laya/ ‘EJK’/HR - ZTE-NBN Deal- SC Decision on Executive Privilege

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE “PARTLY-FREE” (2008) Accountability and Public Voice Civil Liberties Rule of Law Anticorruption and Transparency

4.16 3.85 3.29 3.38

(Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 7, with 0 representing weakest and 7 representing strongest performance)

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE

RAMON MAGSAYSAY AWARDS 2008 “No amount of infrastructure and economic investments can be sustained without accountable, transparent government.”

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE “On the whole, Philippine democracy has combined popular exuberance with the major flaws of elite dominance and institutional weakness. The political structures implanted and nurtured under U.S. colonial rule in the early 20th century were characterized by the exclusion of the masses, patronage-infested political parties, a spoils system that undermined bureaucratic coherence, and opportunities for overbearing executive authority...” -Paul Hutchcroft, University of Wisconsin- Madison

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE “While suffrage expanded after independence in 1946, the country’s “cacique democracy” fell far short of the democratic ideal. In essence, there was rotation of power within the elite without effective participation by those at the bottom of highly inequitable socioeconomic structures.” -Paul Hutchcroft, University of Wisconsin- Madison

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE “WEAK” (2008) (Overall Score: 67/100) Legal Framework Actual Implementation Implementation Gap

86/100 50/100 Very Large 36

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE ”Political financing is effectively unregulated. Journalists and judges are frequently threatened and killed (25 journalists have been killed since 2004). Public access to information is guaranteed in the constitution, and the legal information framework is well regarded. However, in practice, politically charged documents have been withheld. Oversight of state-owned enterprises is inconsistent and poses little risk of investigation.”

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE ”Ranked 131 out of 179” (2008) Scored 2.5 (Where ’10’ is highly clean and ‘0’ as highly corrupt)

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE "Nothing has changed or improved from a year ago. The results of our previous report are still very much applicable." TI Regional Director Pascal Fabie (May 2008)

INSTITUTIONS

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE The practice of Official Development Assistance (ODA) has not been beneficial… what is needed are:

“concrete actions to improve the transparency of both donors and developing country governments, to end the policy conditions donors attached to aid and to end the practice of using aid to promote donor economic and foreign-policy interests.” - Dr. Giovanni Tapang (AID Watch Philippines)

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE Life Expectancy (2003) BOTTOM 10

YEARS

Antique

62.6

Kalinga

62.5

Apayao

62.4

Eastern Samar

61.7

Western Samar

61.4

Basilan

60.6

Lanao del Sur

57.9

Sulu

52.8

Maguindanao

52.0

Tawi-Tawi

51.2

Source: UNDP 2005 Phil Report

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE High School Graduate (2000 vs. 2003) Top Losers

YEARS

Sarangani

-24.8

Maguindanao

-19.9

Davao Oriental

-12.6

Zamboanga del Norte

-10.2

Quezon

-5.2

Lanao del Norte

-4.1

North Cotabato

-3.8

Southern Leyte

-3.6

Mt. Province

-3.5

Camarines Norte

-3.4

Source: UNDP 2005 Phil Report

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE Real per capita Income (1997 NCR Pesos) Bottom 10

Real per capita income

Guimaras

17,049

Romblon

16,712

Marinduque

15,938

Saranggani

15,014

Masbate

14,454

Zamboanga del Norte

14,218

Maguindanao

14,198

Basilan

13,265

Tawi-Tawi

10,780

Sulu

8,430

Source: UNDP 2005 Phil Report

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE Human Development Index (2003) Bottom 10

Index

Lanao del Sur

0.480

Eastern Samar

0.474

Western Samar

0.469

Saranggani

0.448

Zamboanga del Norte

0.446

Masbate

0.442

Basilan

0.409

Tawi-Tawi

0.364

Maguindanao

0.360

Sulu

0.301

Source: UNDP 2005 Phil Report

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE Mindanao Poverty Incidence (2003-2006) Province

Rank

Poverty Incidence (%)

Tawi-Tawi

Region ARMM

1

78.9

Zamboanga del Norte

Zamboanga Peninsula

2

63.0

Maguindanao

ARMM

3

62.0

Apayao

CAR

4

57.5

Surigao del Norte

Caraga

5

53.2

Lanao del Sur

ARMM

6

52.5

Northern Samar

Eastern Visayas

7

52.5

Masbate

Bicol Region

8

51.0

Abra

CAR

9

50.1

Misamis Occidental

Northern Mindanao

10

48.1

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

UNFULFILLED PROMISE ARMM Poverty Incidence (2006) “55.3 %” (National average of poverty incidence is 26.9%) Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

INVESTMENTS/INFRASTRUCTURES

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Social Cohesion ”Social exclusion and widespread poverty threaten peace-building.” (No peace without equity and economic growth; no growth in the context of conflict and strife.) -UNDP 2005 HDR Report

INCLUSION

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Social Cohesion Social Capital as SOCIAL TRUST “Social Capital is an instantiated informal norm that promotes cooperation between two or more individuals” -Francis Fukuyama

INCLUSION

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Social Cohesion Social Capital as SOCIAL TRUST “A nation’s well-being, as well as its ability to compete, is conditioned by a single, pervasive cultural characteristic: the level of trust inherent in society.” -Francis Fukuyama

INCLUSION

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Social Cohesion Development as FREEDOM “Development requires the removal of major sources of unfreedom: poverty, tyranny, poor economic opportunities, system deprivation, neglect of public facilities, intolerance, and repression.” -Amartya Sen

INCLUSION

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Social Cohesion Lumads Christian migrants Muslim communities

INCLUSION

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

MEMORANDUM OF AGREEMENT

A fiasco due to weak governance

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

MEMORANDUM OF AGREEMENT

Weak governance impairs the opportunities and potential of the poor

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

MEMORANDUM OF AGREEMENT BAD FAITH - Lack of transparency -Absence of TRUST -Ulterior agendas

WEAK/BAD GOVERNANCE KILLSEXACERBATES CONFLICT, ‘Pandora’s Box’

MINDANAO

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Towards 2010

-”Chacha” -Federalism

Where are we headed?

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Towards 2010

- Emergency Rule - Martial Law

Where are we headed?

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Reframing Mindanao Question

Institutions

Investments Inclusion

Mindanao as the linchpin in building the “three I’s”

Where are we headed?

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Reframing the Mindanao Question

Mindanao agenda in the 2010 elections?

Where are we headed?

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Reframing the Mindanao Question

Interrogating the Mindanao issue is integral to the larger Philippine development/ democratic agenda.

Where are we headed?

Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences

Reframing the Mindanao Question

“WE ARE ALL MINDANAOANS.” MINDANAOANS.”