Probability of receiving Sinister Squashling AND Hallowed Probability of receiving Lovely Black Dress AND Truesilve Probability of receiving Swift Brewfest Ram OR Swift Brew Probability of receiving all of the above
3% 72% 26% 0.6%
Days to summon Headless Horseman Kills per day per group Total kills over 15 days
R Sinister Squashling 15 5 75
Drop chance for one kill Probability of item dropping 1 times over 75 kills Probability of item dropping 2 times over 75 kills Probability of item dropping 3 times over 75 kills Probability of item dropping 75 times over 75 kills Probability of item dropping at least once over 75 kills Chance one player will receive both items
2.1% 1 2 3 75
0.33 0.26 0.14 0.0% 79.7% 3.2%
Hallowed Helm 15 5 75
Proability of Probability Top RollProbability of Sinister of Squashling Hallowed dropping Helm dropping and player and player getting getting top roll top roll
8.5% 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.0% 99.9%
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.07 0.05 0.03 0
0 0.01 0.01 0
0.16
20%
getting top roll
R Event length (days) Bags per day Total bags over 6 days
6 24 144
Drop chance for one bag Probability of item dropping 1 times over 144 bags Probability of item dropping 144 times over 144 bags Probability of item dropping at least once over 144 bags Chance one player will receive both items
Lovely Black Dress
1.3% 1 144
0.30 0.0% 0.84 71.6%
Truesilver Shafted Arrow 6 24 144 1.3% 0.28 0.0% 0.85
Event length (days) Kills per day per group Total kills over 15 days
R Swift Brewfest Ram 14 5 70
Drop chance for one kill Probability of item dropping 1 times over 70 kills Probability of item dropping 2 times over 70 kills Probability of item dropping 3 times over 70 kills Probability of item dropping 70 times over 70 kills Probability of item dropping at least once over 75 kills Chance one player will receive either item
1.8% 1 2 3 70
0.36 0.22 0.09 0.0% 71.1% 26.3%
Swift Brewfest Kodo 14 5 70
Proability Probability of Top Probability Roll of Ram dropping of Kodoand dropping playerand getting player topgetting roll top roll
1.3% 0.37 0.17 0.05 0.0% 60.5%
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.07 0.04 0.02 0
0.07 0.03 0.01 0
0.14
0.12