52-53

EP

STATE/ASSAM

When security becomes only concern. Laldenga in 1986). Co-option and offers of political accommodation can actually trigger splits. So unlike Pakistan, whose army felt that if killing five lakhs Bengalis cannot end the uprising, one has to kill ten or even twenty lakhs. That approach forces the opposition to fight to the bitter end, leaving no other choice. That approach turned an election driven moderate party like the Awami League and a moderate leader like Mujib (who wanted to be prime minister of undivided Pakistan) into a separatist organisation that would run the liberation struggle to the bitter end. India will never do that. It would use cunning occasionally mixed with brute force but force will never take over. The ULFA must understand that. It must also realise that major demands can be achieved from a position of strength, not from a position of weakness. You can’t get India to accept Assam’s sovereignty -- or even a discussion on the issue -- from the kind of clout that the ULFA now commands. It just does not have the strength to force India to do that. Even the formidable NSCN cannot do that. Perhaps the Nagas could have got a protectorate like Bhutan in the mid 1960s when their movement was really strong and India was desperate to contain new movements like those of the Mizos, Manipuris, Tripuris and the first outbursts of peasant violence at Naxalbari. That was when China was training and sending back hundreds of tough Naga guerrillas to fight the Indian army. 52

August 08

Now the NSCN cannot create such a situation even after having created satellite insurgent groups throughout the Northeast and after being called the “Mother of all insurgencies in the Northeast.” I am not discussing the morality and politics of Assamese separatism. Paresh Barua has every right to feel he is a modern day Lachit Barphukan who has been ordained by the Heavens to liberate Assam from Indian occupation. I can easily place myself in his shoes to figure why he thinks the way he does -- a young boy of Upper Assam who looked at the oil rigs and felt that India was taking away all the resources of his people and giving back none. But after nearly 30 years as a rebel leader, Paresh Barua must display the capacity to be realistic to ensure a political future for him and his group, the ULFA. He must make a realistic assessment of the situation, he must realise that people in Assam are tired of conflict and want peace, he must realise that he needs much more strength than he has now to push a separatist agenda. Five to seven years of Naxalite movement or Khalistani separatism put Bengal and Punjab back by several decades. Assam has been in perpetual turmoil since 1978. He must also realise that the bombings that kill innocents will not help him. It will alienate him from his own people. Bombing Fancy Bazar not only threatens a Bihari labourer or a Marwari businessmen, it threatens hundreds of Assamese people shopping there. Paresh Barua could not have antici-

pated the Bhutanese military offensive in December 2004. He was taken by surprise. He had too much faith in his Bhutanese friends. He did not realise the Bhutanese eat out of Indian plates, and much of their budget comes from India, so there is a limit to how much Indian pressure they can stand. I am aware of the total confusion in the ULFA leadership when the Bhutanese struck and most ruthlessly killed the surrendered leaders like Bening Rabha, Robin Neog and Asantha Bagh Phukan. Baruah may have lived in Bangladesh for fifteen to seventeen years, but I think I understand Bangladesh better than he does. Even a military run government is scared of Indian support to the Awami League, which can bring them down through sustained street agitations. To ensure that does not happen, Dhaka will have to play by Delhi’s wishes on the ULFA. The Bangladesh intelligence has done a recent exercise, sending its agents to Assam to check on the ULFA’s popularity. I am aware of this exercise by DGFI agents though I cannot disclose details to protect my sources. Does the ULFA realise why the Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor is visiting Bangladesh next month? Why is Kapoor pushing for stronger military-to-military ties with Bangladesh? Fierce military operations in Assam must be backed by denial of foreign base areas and the Indian Army will put enough pressure on their Burmese and Bangladesh counterparts to achieve that objective. I am not suggesting that Paresh Barua should cross the border at Dawki with a white flag and surrender, but he must live to fight another day. And he should read Mao Tse Tung (as Muivah sometimes does) to figure out how he does that. Paresh Barua and the ULFA have a right to differ. They have a right to tell me – you are not from Assam, you don’t understand our reality. They can say we are the descendants of Lachit Barphukan and will go down fighting rather than surrender. I will accept all that. But only time will tell who is right. (Subir Bhaumik is BBC’s Eastern India Correspondent and a former Queen Elizabeth House Fellow of Oxford University.)

g n o l l i h S

Love Story

CITIZEN CONTRIBUTOR

2050???

T

his could well be the future of Shillong if the Chief Minister of Meghalaya, Donkupar Roy, would accept the plan of Mr. J. N. Khataniar, a Civil Consultant Engineer. This according to Mr. Khataniar will help ease the congestion in the city and also bring down pollution levels. This could just be the answer to all our traffic problems. Kudos to Mr. Khataniar for daring to dream! This is designed on the transportation network system of Sydney city and is popularly known as a monorail network. August 08

53