3q2009 Sentiment Survey Final Entire Report
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The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index
Third Quarter 2009
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index The Real Estate Roundtable is pleased to announce the results from the Q309 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Survey. The survey is the industry’s most comprehensive measure of senior executives’ confidence in the real estate environment. This quarter, the survey captured the thoughts of over 120 senior real estate executives, including CEOs, presidents, board members, and other executives from a broad set of industry sectors including owners & asset managers, financial services providers, and operators & related service providers. The quarterly survey, conducted by FPL Advisory Group on behalf of the The Real Estate Roundtable, measures executives’ current and future outlook on three topics including (1) overall real estate conditions, (2) access to capital markets, and (3) real estate asset pricing.
Topline Findings ■
The overall sentiment index has increased by eight points over last quarter, but still reflects extremely weak market conditions. — The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index rose to 491 from a reading of 41 in April 2009.
■
A significant majority of respondents believe current conditions are worse than one year ago.
■
Respondents report a significant decline in asset values and have little hope for near-term improvement.
■
Respondents indicate that capital markets have retreated from the brink of historic collapse, however, they are still extraordinarily fragile.
1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index is measured on a scale of 1–100. It is the average of The Real Estate Roundtable Future Index and The Real Estate Roundtable Current Index. To register an Index of 100, all respondents would have to answer that they believe conditions are “much better” today than one year ago and will be “much better” one year from now.
2
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
The overall sentiment index has increased by eight points over last quarter, but still reflects extremely weak market conditions. “There’s the story... and then the real story. The mood has improved, but fundamentals have not.” “Things will get worse before they get better. The real estate business lags the economy by two or three quarters. I think it’s at least 9-12 months before we see something of a recovery.” “The operating market will be difficult for some time, but we’re closer to the end than we were six months ago.” “I felt until recently like we’re running in quicksand, but we’re not doing that anymore. The worst is over... but that doesn’t mean it’s good.” “Conditions are still bad, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.”
Exhibit 1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index
Future Conditions
63 58
46
Overall
58
60
49
49 43 38
41 36
33 28
28
Current Conditions
Q2 08
3
62
Q3 08
17
18
Q4 08
Q1 09
21
Q2 09
Q3 09
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
A significant majority of respondents believe current conditions are worse than one year ago. “The property market stinks and it continues to get worse. We were in the same place in 1990.” “Next year, people will be bold. They’re not ready yet.” “Nothing will free up this year because the capital markets will not free up.” “Only when jobs start to recover will we see REIT fundamentals follow suit.”
Exhibit 2
Perspectives on Real Estate Market Conditions % of respondents Much worse
Somewhat worse
About the same
Somewhat better
One Year From Now vs. Today
Today vs. One Year Ago
100
100 24 75
Much better
44
75
3
6
3
12
14
23
20
34 50
50 39
53
19 25
25 7 0
58
20
10 April ’09
3
July ’09
0
6
5
April ’09
July ’09
3
4
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Respondents report a significant decline in asset values and have little hope for near-term improvement. “Asset prices have declined, perhaps 20-30%, but there’s not enough transactions to really tell how much they’ve declined. It’s impossible to underwrite today.” “Owners don’t want to be distressed sellers, so it will fall to the banks to fill that role.” “I’m more bearish than bullish on asset valuations.” “The bid/ask spread will close in the next year. Sellers will have to begin to drop their prices and accept buyer offers.”
Exhibit 3
Real Estate Asset Values % of respondents Much lower
Somewhat lower
About the same
Somewhat higher
One Year From Now vs. Today
Today vs. One Year Ago 100
100
75 69
75
59
50
9 31
9
37
50 36
25
4 3
1
April ’09
July ’09
36
25
34 30
0
Much higher
24
18
0 April ’09
July ’09
4 3
1
5
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Respondents indicate that capital markets have retreated from the brink of historic collapse, however, they are still extraordinarily fragile. “The banks aren’t making any new loans. They’re pretending that the extensions that they’re issuing (instead of foreclosing) are new lending to make the government think they’re loaning money.” “There’s a fair amount of equity, though it’s mostly on the sidelines. The debt side is a more serious issue. The banks are full up on commercial real estate debt and there’s no one else who can step into the void.” “We’ve been able to access the common equity market and that has some life. The preferred equity market is dead. Unsecured debt is dead. Secured is open, you may not like the pricing, but it’s open.” “Four to five months ago, there wasn’t a penny available for anything. Now, the wheels are starting to move.”
Exhibit 4
Availability of Capital % of respondents Much worse
Somewhat worse
About the same
100
100
3 8
41
75
75
57
71
28
75
2
5
6
24
28
Jul ’09
Apr ’09
Debt
16
9 4
4
Apr ’09 Jul ’09
Equity 1
0
7
0
Apr ’09 Jul ’09 1
Debt
6
5
Apr ’09 Jul ’09
Jul ’09
0 Apr ’09 Jul ’09 2
58
25
25
Apr ’09
12
25
29
60
Jul ’09
10
63
62 25
Apr ’09
17
50
50
Jul ’09
17
50
Apr ’09
30
0
6
21
3
31
50
25
100
8
24
75
Much better
One Year From Now vs. Today 2
Today vs. One Year Ago 100
Somewhat better
Equity
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Participants (Please note that this is only a partial list. Not all survey participants elected to be listed.) Acadia Realty Trust Kenneth F. Bernstein
Colliers Macaulay Nicolls, Inc. Douglas P. Frye
Heitman Financial Jerome J. Claeys, III
Alcion Ventures David L. Ferrero
Crow Holdings Anne L. Raymond
Highwoods Properties, Inc. Edward J. Fritsch
AllBridge Investments John B. Bartling, Jr.
CSCA Capital Advisors, LLC Bradley Razook
Hines REIT Charles Hazen
American Hotel & Lodging Association Joseph A. McInerney
Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. John C. Cushman, III
Home Properties Inc. Edward J. Pettinella
AmREIT, INC. Phillip Taggart
DCT Industrial Trust Thomas G. Wattles
Horizon Bay Senior Communities Thilo Best
Beekman Advisors, LLC John Cibinic
DePaul University Charles H. Wurtzebach
HSA Commercial Real Estate Robert E. Smietana
BlackRock, Inc. Ronald E. Zuzack
DePaul University – Real Estate Center Susanne E. Cannon
Inland Western Retail Real Estate Trust Michael J. O’Hanlon
Boston Properties, Inc. Edward H. Linde
Disney Vacation Club Lawrence Smith
Interstate Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Thomas F. Hewitt
Bovis Lend Lease Mike Bellaman
DLA Piper Jay Epstein
Jack Resnick & Sons Burton P. Resnick
Boykin Management Co. Robert W. Boykin
EastGroup Properties, Inc. David H. Hoster, II
Johnson Capital Group, Inc. Guy K. Johnson
BRE Properties, Inc. Constance B. Moore
Education Realty Trust, Inc. Paul O. Bower
JP Morgan Joseph Greff
Building Owners & Managers Association Intl. Henry H. Chamberlain
FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated Thomas J. Corcoran
Julian LeCraw & Co. Michael Tompkins
First Centrum, LLC Mark L. Weshinskey
Kimpton Hotel & Restaurant Group, LLC Michael Depatie
CB Richard Ellis Jim Peck
Forum Partners Investment Management LLC Caroline S. McBride
Lane Construction Robert Alger
Centro Properties Group Glenn J. Rufrano
Green Courte Partners, LLC Randall K. Rowe
Champion Partners, Ltd. Jeffrey L. Swope
Greenberg Traurig, LLP Robert J. Ivanhoe
Lazard Robert C. Larson Matthew J. Lustig
Citigroup, Inc. Thomas M. Flexner
Gunn Capital Ventures LLC Thomas P. MacManus
Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Inc. Kevin J. Brown
Classic Residence by Hyatt Randal J. Richardson
Health Care REIT, Inc. George L. Chapman
Liberty Property Trust William P. Hankowsky
Capital Trust, Inc. Stephen D. Plavin
7
LaSalle Investment Management Jeff Jacobson
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Lincoln Property Company J. Timothy Byrne
Prima Capital Advisors LLC Gregory A. White
Taubman Centers Robert S. Taubman
Los Angeles County Employees Retirement Assoc. John D. McClelland
Private Investor Richard D. Kincaid
Tetrad Corporation W. David Scott
Q10 Capital James M. Murphy
Thackeray Partners Anthony Dona
RD Merrill Bill Pettit
The Bozzuto Group Thomas S. Bozzuto
Real Esate Partners International, LLC Jerry L. Starkey
The EMMES Group of Companies Andrew Davidoff
Red Capital Group Casey N. Moore
The JBG Companies James Iker
Regency Centers Corporation Martin E. Stein, Jr.
The Prime Group, Inc. Michael W. Reschke
Rockefeller Group Development Corporation Kevin R. Hackett
Transwestern Commercial Services Robert D. Duncan
M3 Capital Partners Donald E. Suter Maguire Properties, Inc. Nelson C. Rising Marcus & Millichap Harvey E. Green George M. Marcus Marriott International, Inc. William J. Shaw Mayer Brown LLP Michael Blair Merrill Lynch & Company Douglas W. Sesler Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. H. Eric Bolton, Jr. MidCap Financial LLC Kevin J. McMeen Molinaro Koger, Inc. Robert Koger National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Douglas M. Bibby Nationwide Health Properties, Inc. Douglas M. Pasquale New York State Teachers Retirement System David C. Gillan Northwood Investors John Z. Kukral Partners Group Nori Gerardo Lietz Post Properties, Inc. David P. Stockert
8
Security Capital Research & Management Inc. Anthony R. Manno Shearman & Sterling Lee A. Kuntz Silver Investments Howard A. Silver Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom Benjamin F. Needell
Tufts University – Department of Ecomics Jeffrey E. Zabel UDR, INC. Thomas W. Toomey ULI – the Urban Land Institute Stephen R. Blank University of Connecticut John P. Harding
Sonic Carl Taylor Warner
USD Burnham Moores Center for Real Estate Mark J. Riedy
Square Mile Capital Management LLC Craig H. Solomon
Utah Retirement Systems Devon W. Olson
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. Simon M. Turner
Vornado Realty Trust Michael D. Fascitelli
Summit Land Partners, LLC Bruce T. Lehman Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. Robert A. Alter
Watson Land Company Bruce A. Choate Willkie Farr & Gallagher Eugene Pinover
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Contact Please direct all inquiries regarding this study to: Mr. Jonas D. Bordo Senior Director FPL Associates L.P. 191 North Wacker Drive Suite 2850 Chicago, Illinois 60606 Phone: (312) 368-5088 Fax: (312) 368-0359 E-mail: [email protected]
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC. All rights reserved. No business or professional relationship is created in connection with any provision of the content of this document (the “Content”). The Content is provided exclusively with the understanding that FPL Advisory Group LLC is not engaged in rendering professional advice or services to you including, without limitation, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Nothing in the Content should be used in or construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to any securities or financial instruments. Any alteration, modification, reproduction, redistribution, retransmission, redisplay or other use of any portion of the Content constitutes an infringement of our intellectual property and other proprietary rights. However, permission is hereby granted to forward the Content in its entirety to a third party as long as full attribution is given to FPL Advisory Group LLC. The views and opinions expressed by each participant are such individual’s own views and are not necessarily the views of FPL Advisory Group LLC or such participant’s employer.
9
Third Quarter 2009
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index The Real Estate Roundtable is pleased to announce the results from the Q309 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Survey. The survey is the industry’s most comprehensive measure of senior executives’ confidence in the real estate environment. This quarter, the survey captured the thoughts of over 120 senior real estate executives, including CEOs, presidents, board members, and other executives from a broad set of industry sectors including owners & asset managers, financial services providers, and operators & related service providers. The quarterly survey, conducted by FPL Advisory Group on behalf of the The Real Estate Roundtable, measures executives’ current and future outlook on three topics including (1) overall real estate conditions, (2) access to capital markets, and (3) real estate asset pricing.
Topline Findings ■
The overall sentiment index has increased by eight points over last quarter, but still reflects extremely weak market conditions. — The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index rose to 491 from a reading of 41 in April 2009.
■
A significant majority of respondents believe current conditions are worse than one year ago.
■
Respondents report a significant decline in asset values and have little hope for near-term improvement.
■
Respondents indicate that capital markets have retreated from the brink of historic collapse, however, they are still extraordinarily fragile.
1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index is measured on a scale of 1–100. It is the average of The Real Estate Roundtable Future Index and The Real Estate Roundtable Current Index. To register an Index of 100, all respondents would have to answer that they believe conditions are “much better” today than one year ago and will be “much better” one year from now.
2
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
The overall sentiment index has increased by eight points over last quarter, but still reflects extremely weak market conditions. “There’s the story... and then the real story. The mood has improved, but fundamentals have not.” “Things will get worse before they get better. The real estate business lags the economy by two or three quarters. I think it’s at least 9-12 months before we see something of a recovery.” “The operating market will be difficult for some time, but we’re closer to the end than we were six months ago.” “I felt until recently like we’re running in quicksand, but we’re not doing that anymore. The worst is over... but that doesn’t mean it’s good.” “Conditions are still bad, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.”
Exhibit 1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index
Future Conditions
63 58
46
Overall
58
60
49
49 43 38
41 36
33 28
28
Current Conditions
Q2 08
3
62
Q3 08
17
18
Q4 08
Q1 09
21
Q2 09
Q3 09
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
A significant majority of respondents believe current conditions are worse than one year ago. “The property market stinks and it continues to get worse. We were in the same place in 1990.” “Next year, people will be bold. They’re not ready yet.” “Nothing will free up this year because the capital markets will not free up.” “Only when jobs start to recover will we see REIT fundamentals follow suit.”
Exhibit 2
Perspectives on Real Estate Market Conditions % of respondents Much worse
Somewhat worse
About the same
Somewhat better
One Year From Now vs. Today
Today vs. One Year Ago
100
100 24 75
Much better
44
75
3
6
3
12
14
23
20
34 50
50 39
53
19 25
25 7 0
58
20
10 April ’09
3
July ’09
0
6
5
April ’09
July ’09
3
4
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Respondents report a significant decline in asset values and have little hope for near-term improvement. “Asset prices have declined, perhaps 20-30%, but there’s not enough transactions to really tell how much they’ve declined. It’s impossible to underwrite today.” “Owners don’t want to be distressed sellers, so it will fall to the banks to fill that role.” “I’m more bearish than bullish on asset valuations.” “The bid/ask spread will close in the next year. Sellers will have to begin to drop their prices and accept buyer offers.”
Exhibit 3
Real Estate Asset Values % of respondents Much lower
Somewhat lower
About the same
Somewhat higher
One Year From Now vs. Today
Today vs. One Year Ago 100
100
75 69
75
59
50
9 31
9
37
50 36
25
4 3
1
April ’09
July ’09
36
25
34 30
0
Much higher
24
18
0 April ’09
July ’09
4 3
1
5
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Respondents indicate that capital markets have retreated from the brink of historic collapse, however, they are still extraordinarily fragile. “The banks aren’t making any new loans. They’re pretending that the extensions that they’re issuing (instead of foreclosing) are new lending to make the government think they’re loaning money.” “There’s a fair amount of equity, though it’s mostly on the sidelines. The debt side is a more serious issue. The banks are full up on commercial real estate debt and there’s no one else who can step into the void.” “We’ve been able to access the common equity market and that has some life. The preferred equity market is dead. Unsecured debt is dead. Secured is open, you may not like the pricing, but it’s open.” “Four to five months ago, there wasn’t a penny available for anything. Now, the wheels are starting to move.”
Exhibit 4
Availability of Capital % of respondents Much worse
Somewhat worse
About the same
100
100
3 8
41
75
75
57
71
28
75
2
5
6
24
28
Jul ’09
Apr ’09
Debt
16
9 4
4
Apr ’09 Jul ’09
Equity 1
0
7
0
Apr ’09 Jul ’09 1
Debt
6
5
Apr ’09 Jul ’09
Jul ’09
0 Apr ’09 Jul ’09 2
58
25
25
Apr ’09
12
25
29
60
Jul ’09
10
63
62 25
Apr ’09
17
50
50
Jul ’09
17
50
Apr ’09
30
0
6
21
3
31
50
25
100
8
24
75
Much better
One Year From Now vs. Today 2
Today vs. One Year Ago 100
Somewhat better
Equity
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Participants (Please note that this is only a partial list. Not all survey participants elected to be listed.) Acadia Realty Trust Kenneth F. Bernstein
Colliers Macaulay Nicolls, Inc. Douglas P. Frye
Heitman Financial Jerome J. Claeys, III
Alcion Ventures David L. Ferrero
Crow Holdings Anne L. Raymond
Highwoods Properties, Inc. Edward J. Fritsch
AllBridge Investments John B. Bartling, Jr.
CSCA Capital Advisors, LLC Bradley Razook
Hines REIT Charles Hazen
American Hotel & Lodging Association Joseph A. McInerney
Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. John C. Cushman, III
Home Properties Inc. Edward J. Pettinella
AmREIT, INC. Phillip Taggart
DCT Industrial Trust Thomas G. Wattles
Horizon Bay Senior Communities Thilo Best
Beekman Advisors, LLC John Cibinic
DePaul University Charles H. Wurtzebach
HSA Commercial Real Estate Robert E. Smietana
BlackRock, Inc. Ronald E. Zuzack
DePaul University – Real Estate Center Susanne E. Cannon
Inland Western Retail Real Estate Trust Michael J. O’Hanlon
Boston Properties, Inc. Edward H. Linde
Disney Vacation Club Lawrence Smith
Interstate Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Thomas F. Hewitt
Bovis Lend Lease Mike Bellaman
DLA Piper Jay Epstein
Jack Resnick & Sons Burton P. Resnick
Boykin Management Co. Robert W. Boykin
EastGroup Properties, Inc. David H. Hoster, II
Johnson Capital Group, Inc. Guy K. Johnson
BRE Properties, Inc. Constance B. Moore
Education Realty Trust, Inc. Paul O. Bower
JP Morgan Joseph Greff
Building Owners & Managers Association Intl. Henry H. Chamberlain
FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated Thomas J. Corcoran
Julian LeCraw & Co. Michael Tompkins
First Centrum, LLC Mark L. Weshinskey
Kimpton Hotel & Restaurant Group, LLC Michael Depatie
CB Richard Ellis Jim Peck
Forum Partners Investment Management LLC Caroline S. McBride
Lane Construction Robert Alger
Centro Properties Group Glenn J. Rufrano
Green Courte Partners, LLC Randall K. Rowe
Champion Partners, Ltd. Jeffrey L. Swope
Greenberg Traurig, LLP Robert J. Ivanhoe
Lazard Robert C. Larson Matthew J. Lustig
Citigroup, Inc. Thomas M. Flexner
Gunn Capital Ventures LLC Thomas P. MacManus
Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Inc. Kevin J. Brown
Classic Residence by Hyatt Randal J. Richardson
Health Care REIT, Inc. George L. Chapman
Liberty Property Trust William P. Hankowsky
Capital Trust, Inc. Stephen D. Plavin
7
LaSalle Investment Management Jeff Jacobson
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Lincoln Property Company J. Timothy Byrne
Prima Capital Advisors LLC Gregory A. White
Taubman Centers Robert S. Taubman
Los Angeles County Employees Retirement Assoc. John D. McClelland
Private Investor Richard D. Kincaid
Tetrad Corporation W. David Scott
Q10 Capital James M. Murphy
Thackeray Partners Anthony Dona
RD Merrill Bill Pettit
The Bozzuto Group Thomas S. Bozzuto
Real Esate Partners International, LLC Jerry L. Starkey
The EMMES Group of Companies Andrew Davidoff
Red Capital Group Casey N. Moore
The JBG Companies James Iker
Regency Centers Corporation Martin E. Stein, Jr.
The Prime Group, Inc. Michael W. Reschke
Rockefeller Group Development Corporation Kevin R. Hackett
Transwestern Commercial Services Robert D. Duncan
M3 Capital Partners Donald E. Suter Maguire Properties, Inc. Nelson C. Rising Marcus & Millichap Harvey E. Green George M. Marcus Marriott International, Inc. William J. Shaw Mayer Brown LLP Michael Blair Merrill Lynch & Company Douglas W. Sesler Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. H. Eric Bolton, Jr. MidCap Financial LLC Kevin J. McMeen Molinaro Koger, Inc. Robert Koger National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Douglas M. Bibby Nationwide Health Properties, Inc. Douglas M. Pasquale New York State Teachers Retirement System David C. Gillan Northwood Investors John Z. Kukral Partners Group Nori Gerardo Lietz Post Properties, Inc. David P. Stockert
8
Security Capital Research & Management Inc. Anthony R. Manno Shearman & Sterling Lee A. Kuntz Silver Investments Howard A. Silver Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom Benjamin F. Needell
Tufts University – Department of Ecomics Jeffrey E. Zabel UDR, INC. Thomas W. Toomey ULI – the Urban Land Institute Stephen R. Blank University of Connecticut John P. Harding
Sonic Carl Taylor Warner
USD Burnham Moores Center for Real Estate Mark J. Riedy
Square Mile Capital Management LLC Craig H. Solomon
Utah Retirement Systems Devon W. Olson
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. Simon M. Turner
Vornado Realty Trust Michael D. Fascitelli
Summit Land Partners, LLC Bruce T. Lehman Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. Robert A. Alter
Watson Land Company Bruce A. Choate Willkie Farr & Gallagher Eugene Pinover
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC
Contact Please direct all inquiries regarding this study to: Mr. Jonas D. Bordo Senior Director FPL Associates L.P. 191 North Wacker Drive Suite 2850 Chicago, Illinois 60606 Phone: (312) 368-5088 Fax: (312) 368-0359 E-mail: [email protected]
© 2009, FPL Advisory Group LLC. All rights reserved. No business or professional relationship is created in connection with any provision of the content of this document (the “Content”). The Content is provided exclusively with the understanding that FPL Advisory Group LLC is not engaged in rendering professional advice or services to you including, without limitation, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Nothing in the Content should be used in or construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to any securities or financial instruments. Any alteration, modification, reproduction, redistribution, retransmission, redisplay or other use of any portion of the Content constitutes an infringement of our intellectual property and other proprietary rights. However, permission is hereby granted to forward the Content in its entirety to a third party as long as full attribution is given to FPL Advisory Group LLC. The views and opinions expressed by each participant are such individual’s own views and are not necessarily the views of FPL Advisory Group LLC or such participant’s employer.
9
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