3. Geoengeneering & Unfccc

Geoengineering and the UNFCCC: Presentation for PACC Bangkok, October 3, 2009 Diana Bronson, ETC Group

Outline of briefing (1) what is geoengineering; (2) examples: theory, status, problems (3) recommendations on technology language

Geoengineering: the large-scale, intentional manipulation of the climate, particularly to counter effects of climate change …Or a planetary techno-fix

Wide variety of techniques Three general categories

!  Carbon dioxide removal and sequestration (CDR) !  Solar Radiation management (SRM) !  Weather modification

Policy credibility? !  Royal Society !  National Academies of Science

!  American Meteorological Society

!  Upsurge of media !  Parliamentary & Congress Committees

!  American Enterprise institute

!  Bjorn Lomborg !  Heartland, Cato, Hoover !  DARPA !  Edward Teller, Lowell Wood

Ocean fertilization: the theory !  Add “nutrients” to ocean to stimulate algae growth

!  Increase CO2 uptake of oceans

Ocean fertilization: the status !  13 experiments to date !  Inappropriate commercial interest: Climos, Planktos, ONC

!  CBD moratorium !  London Convention resolution and process !  Upcoming experiment in Antarctic Sea over 40,000 sq km (Climos)

OIF: the problems !  Disturbance of marine food web !  Unpredictable effects on marine ecosystems !  Oxygen deprivation !  CO2 sequestration would require widespread and cumulative process

!  No small scale, no control patch Cf. A. Strong et al. “Ocean Fertilization: Time to Move on” Nature, Sept 17 09.

Other ocean technologies Cloud whitening

Ocean Mixing

Other CDR Technologies ! Artificial trees ! Carbon sucking machines

! Geoengineered algae

! biochar

Sulphur in the stratosphere: the theory !  Solar radiation management technology

!  Inspired Mt Pinatubo !  Reduce warming

without changing GHG composition

Sulphates : the status !  Top rated technology in Royal Society report !  NOVIM report on technical research, development and deployment chaired by Steven Koonin

!  Increasing academic attention !  Seen as “Plan B”

Sulphates: the problems !  Ozone depletion !  Regional weather impacts – droughts !  Continued ocean acidification !  Less blue skies !  Less solar power !  Sudden rapid warming if stopped !  High risk, unpredictable

Other SRM technologies !  Trillions of space mirrors

1.5 million km from earth

!  Cloud whitening !  Painting surfaces white !  Covering deserts in reflective plastic

Weather modification !  Began in 1830s !  Used as a military

technique in Vietnam

!  Cloud seeding for precipitation

!  Hurricane redirection !  Gates patent on hurrican suppression by cooling surface water

!  1978 ENMOD

Common problems of geoengineering !  Alternative to mitigation !  Large-scale by definition !  Potential unilateralism !  Unreliable !  Unequal impacts !  Private sector incentives !  Lack of regulation (CBD, ENMOD)

Overall principles ! precautionary principle ! Respect for international law ! No unilateral action ! Full consideration of potential negative social or environmental impacts ! Open and transparent process with full civil society participation ! Fair, full and equitable representation and participation of developing countries ! Involvement of relevant UN treaty bodies

Geoengineering at UNFCCC Exclusion Option: “The provisions related to enhanced action on the development and transfer of technology in this text do not apply to geo-engineering technologies…”

Geoengineering at UNFCCC Precautionary language

!  Assess technologies before they are deployed !  No experimentation !  No unilateralism

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