2q09 Review And 3q09 Preview: Better Times Ahead?

2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview: Better times ahead? Diana Diquez, Sr. Market Analyst Thomson Reuters LPC July 16, 2009

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Webinar overview 2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead? 2Q09 sees some stability • What were the biggest changes? • Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes • Issuance recovers from 1Q levels Non-sponsored lending up • Non-sponsored issuance is up • Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals • Ancillary business remains very important • Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life • A few deals get done – volume slightly up • Many obstacles remain • Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base Amendments take center stage • 51% amendments rule • Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility Are better times ahead? 2

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Market Survey What was the biggest change in the middle market in 2Q09? – Market stabilized; no longer frozen – Some sense of liquidity – Higher pricing, but some pockets of competitive pricing emerged in the non-sponsored market – Amends and extends show up in the middle market – Weak economic conditions – lack of financial visibility – Secondary market rally

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

3

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Traditional middle market bids currently in 77-78 context Traditional MM & SMi100 bids

100 95 85 80 75 70

Traditional MM SMi100

65 60 7/2/2007 7/27/2007 8/21/2007 9/15/2007 10/10/2007 11/4/2007 11/29/2007 12/24/2007 1/18/2008 2/12/2008 3/8/2008 4/2/2008 4/27/2008 5/22/2008 6/16/2008 7/11/2008 8/5/2008 8/30/2008 9/24/2008 10/19/2008 11/13/2008 12/8/2008 1/2/2009 1/27/2009 2/21/2009 3/18/2009 4/12/2009 5/7/2009 6/1/2009 6/26/2009

Price (% of par)

90

Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100M Source: LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing 4

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Market Survey How much time did you spend analyzing opportunities in the secondary market in 2Q09? 60%

% of respondents

50% 40%

35%

35%

30% 20%

18% 12%

10% 0%

Majority of time as Modest amount of Very little time as No time as our primary issuance time as select more focused on strategy is to buy has been quiet opportunities amendments, and hold to arise restructurings and maturity new deals

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

5

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2Q09 Middle market issuance up relative to 1Q Middle Market Loan Issuance 60 New Money (beg. 2Q03)

50

• 2Q09 loan issuance – $17.6 billion – Up 74% from 1Q09 – Down 40% from 2Q08

30 20

• New money – $6.32 billion

10

– Up 67% from 1Q09 0 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09

Issuance ($ Bils.)

40

– Down 67% from 2Q08

Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less; 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

6

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Comparison to the overall market

Overall U.S. 600

Middle Market

60

500

50

400

40

300

30

200

20

100

10

0

Middle Market Issuance ($ Bils.)

70

Year-over-year – Middle market drops 40% – Overall market drops 37%

Quarter-over-quarter – Middle market up 74% – Overall market up 37%

0 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09

Overall Syn. Loan Issuance ($ Bils.)

700

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

7

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Middle market issuance breakout 45 40 Large Traditional

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09

Issuance ($ Bils.)

35

Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100 Large MM - Deal size >$100 Mil. to $500 Mil. For all: Borrower sales <$500 Mil. Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

8

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Market SurveyWere you able to lend as much as you wanted to in 2Q09?

Somewhat below goals 33%

Below goals by >15% 28%

• 61% of lenders fell below goals • 39% met goals

Met goals 39%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 9

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Market Survey What were the biggest obstacles to getting middle market deals done in 2Q09?

– Ancillary business requirements – Relatively limited deal flow; lack of quality opportunities – Lack of M&A activity – High costs prevented issuers from coming to market – Limited liquidity

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

10

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Market Survey Lending capacity in the middle market How much did lending capacity shrink in 1Q09?

[more than 75% ] 27%

[less than 25% ] 33%

What happened to lending capacity in 2Q09, relative to 1Q09?

Increased [< 10%] 26% Unchanged 48%

[50 - 75% ] 13%

[25 - 50% ] 27%

Increased [10-25%] 26%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

11

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Bookrunner volume at very low levels; ranks shift 1H09

1H07 (pre-mergers)

CIT Group Golub Capital SunTrust BNP BMO KeyBank Mitsubishi UFJ GECC U.S. Bancorp JPM (incl. Bear Stearns) Wells (incl. Wachovia) PNC (incl. National city) Bank of America ML

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Bookrunner vol ($Bils)

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

12

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Webinar overview 2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead? 2Q09 sees some stability • What were the biggest changes? • Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes • Issuance recovers from 1Q levels Non-sponsored lending up • Non-sponsored issuance is up • Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals • Ancillary business remains very important • Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life • A few deals get done – volume slightly up • Many obstacles remain • Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base Amendments take center stage • 51% amendments rule • Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility Are better times ahead? 13

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Non-sponsored lending gets selective Non-sponsored Issuance

Percentage change in issuance y-o-y

40 80%

35

x`

15 10

40% 20% 0% -20%

5

-40%

0

-60% 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09

20

1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09

Issuance ($ Bils.)

25

Year-over-year change (%)

60%

30

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

14

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Market Survey – In 2009, are you allocating more or less capital for middle market loans than in 2008? 2009 Capital allocation change relative to previous year

70% % of respondents

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (<30%) (20-30%) (10-20%) (0-10%)

0-10%

10-20% 20-30%

>30%

Percentage change

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey 15

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Market Survey – Rank in order of importance the following factors you consider when committing to a new deal Non-Sponsored Respondents % Ranked #1

% Ranked #2

% Ranked #3

% Ranked #4

% Ranked #5

% Ranked #6

Credit quality

73%

18%

9%

-

-

-

Industry

18%

9%

9%

9%

46%

9%

Structure

-

64%

18%

9%

9%

-

Ancillary business

9%

9%

37%

27%

18%

-

Size of company

-

-

-

-

9%

91%

Yield

-

-

27%

55%

18%

-

Factor

Credit quality, structure and ancillary business are the top three factors for nonsponsored lenders Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 16

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Market Survey – Lenders’ reduced tolerance for leverage revealed Total Debt to EBITDA

Senior Debt to EBITDA 2007

2008

2009

90%

70%

Percent of Respondents

Percent of Respondents

80%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <1.5x

1.5x - 2x

2x - 2.5x

2.5x - 3x

Min. acceptable sr. debt to EBITDA

>3x

2007

2008

2009

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.5x - 3x

3x - 4x

> 4x

Min. acceptable total debt to EBITDA

• Non-sponsored leverage tolerance levels continue to decline • Majority of lenders focused on non-sponsored want senior leverage under 2.5x and total leverage under 4x

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey

17

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Non-sponsored market: spreads high in 2009 Non-Sponsored non-M&A Revolvers

300

200

150 Large Traditional 100 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09

LIB+ (bps)

250

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 18

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Listener survey question… (Live Poll)

Relative to 1H09, spreads in the nonsponsored market in 2H09 will ... ‰

Go up more than 10%

‰

Go down more than 10%

‰

Remain relatively unchanged

19

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Market Survey Do you think that 2H09 pricing will increase or decrease relative to 1H09 pricing? Majority expect spreads to increase

70% % of respondents

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (<30%) (20-30%) (10-20%) (0-10%)

0-10%

10-20% 20-30%

>30%

Percentage change Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey 20

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Middle market sees shorter maturities Avg. Maturity – Multi-Year Revolvers

Trad. MM tenor dispersion: multi-year RCs

70%

Large MM Trad MM

60

60% 2007 50%

% of facilities

50 40

2008 1H09

40% 30% 20%

30 10%

1H 09

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

20 2000

Avg. Maturity - number of months

70

0% 1 to <2

2 to <3

3 to <4

4 to <5

>=5

Number of years

•

Average maturities for multi-year revolvers decline significantly

•

More than a third of traditional MM revolvers are 3-4 years Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

21

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Webinar overview 2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead? 2Q09 sees some stability • What were the biggest changes? • Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes • Issuance recovers from 1Q levels Non-sponsored lending up • Non-sponsored issuance is up • Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals • Ancillary business remains very important • Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life • A few deals get done – volume slightly up • Many obstacles remain • Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base Amendments take center stage • 51% amendments rule • Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility Are better times ahead? 22

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Sponsored issuance up from 1Q levels 25

20

Other

15

10

5

1Q09

3Q08

1Q08

3Q07

1Q07

3Q06

1Q06

3Q05

1Q05

3Q04

1Q04

3Q03

1Q03

1Q02 3Q02

3Q01

1Q01

3Q00

0 1Q00

Issuance ($ Bils.)

LBO

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

23

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Market SurveyMin. acceptable levels for equity contributions in sponsored transactions Min. acceptable equity contributions

Greater than 50% 8%

[20-30% ] 11%

[30-40% ] 22%

Share of lenders who prefer equity contributions of at least >40% • 2002 – 16% • 2007 – None • 2Q09 – 67%

[40-50% ] 59%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

24

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Market Survey – Rank in order of importance the following factors you consider when committing to a new deal Sponsored Respondents % Ranked #1

% Ranked #2

% Ranked #3

% Ranked #4

% Ranked #5

% Ranked #6

87%

14%

-

-

-

-

Industry

-

-

-

71%

29%

-

Structure

13%

57%

29%

-

-

-

Ancillary business

-

-

-

-

-

100%

Size of company

-

-

-

29%

71%

-

Yield

-

29%

71%

-

-

-

Factor Credit quality

Credit quality, structure and yield are the top three factors for sponsored lenders Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 25

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Although improved from last quarter, institutional issuance is still well below historical levels Institutional Volume

% of Total Sponsored Volume

18

80% 70%

16

60%

14 12

50%

10

40%

8

30%

6

20%

4

2Q09

4Q08

2Q08

4Q07

2Q07

4Q06

2Q06

4Q05

2Q05

4Q04

2Q04

4Q03

2Q03

0% 4Q02

0 2Q02

10%

4Q01

2 2Q01

MM Institutional Issuance ($ Bils.)

20

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

26

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Market surveyMinimum spread and libor floor required to get a term loan done in the middle market Min. LIB Spread

Min. LIB Floor 100%

100%

> 3%

LIB+ > 700 LIB+ 600-700

80%

2-3% 80%

% of Respondents

1-2% LIB+ 500-600

0-1% 60%

LIB+ < 500

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

0%

0% Banks

Non-Banks

Banks

Non-Banks

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey 27

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What is your minimum yield requirement? 60%

% of respondents

50% 40%

Banks Non-Banks

30% 20% 10% 0% < 7.5%

7.5 - 8.5%

8.5 - 9.5%

9.5 - 10.5%

> 10.5%

Total yield • Assumptions: OID of 97, 4 years to maturity, Libor floor included, otherwise 3-month Libor of .65% Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

28

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Term loan spreads and yields Term loan spreads

Term loan yields (4-year-term to repayment)

1050

12%

Traditional MM Large MM

10%

750

Yield (%)

Avg. TL B Spread (bps)

950 850

Spread due to OID Contractual spread LIB Floor

14%

650 550

8% 6% 4%

450

2% 350

Travelport

Pharmanet

TNS

Anchor Glass

Venture Transport

2Q08

Church's Chicken

Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100M Large MM - Deal size >$100M to $500M For all: Borrower sales <$500M

Local Insight

1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08* 2Q08* 3Q08* 4Q08* 1Q09* 2Q09*

*Discounted spread on loans (assuming a 4-year –term to repayment) including OID

RepconStrickland

0% 250

2Q09

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

29

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LBO loan size continues to fall 180

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1H09

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0 2000

Avg. LBO loan size ($ Mils.)

160

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 30

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M&A issuance almost non-existent Non-Sponsored M&A Issuance 8

14

7

1Q09

2Q08

3Q07

4Q06

1Q06

2Q05

1Q09

1Q08

1Q07

1Q06

1Q05

1Q04

0 1Q03

0 1Q02

1

1Q01

2

3Q04

2

4Q03

4

3

1Q03

6

4

2Q02

8

5

3Q01

10

6

4Q00

12

1Q00

M&A issuance ($ Bils.)

16

1Q00

M&A issuance ($ Bils.)

Sponsored M&A Issuance

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 31

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Amendments take center stage in 1H09

Loan Issuance (excluding Amendments) 28%

Amends & Extends 1% 100% vote amendments 23%

51% vote amendments 48%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

32

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Market Survey – Spread increase due to financial covenant amendment

% of Respondents

Non Sponsored

Sponsored

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 300

Spread (bps)

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey 33

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% of Revolvers

Amendment spread increases: Sponsored vs. Nonsponsored 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sponsored Non Sponsored

0 - 100

100 200

200 300

> 300

Spread Increase bucket (bps) Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 34

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Listener survey question… (Live Poll)

What will drive issuance in 3Q? ‰

M&A/LBO

‰

Capex spending/Corporate purposes

‰

DIPs

‰

Amendments

‰

Refis/Repricings

‰

Exit financings

35

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Market Survey – What will drive the bulk of mid-market loan activity in 3Q09?

Refis 40% Amendments 55%

M&A/LBO 5%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 36

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45 Traditional

40

Large

35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

4Q13

3Q13

2Q13

1Q13

4Q12

3Q12

2Q12

1Q12

4Q11

3Q11

2Q11

1Q11

4Q10

3Q10

2Q10

1Q10

4Q09

0 3Q09

Maturing volume ($Bils.)

Upcoming middle market loan maturities

37

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Upcoming middle market loan maturities Sponsored and non-sponsored

Institutional

45 Sponsored Non Spons

30 25 20 x`

15

14 12 10 8 6

10

4

5

2

0

0

• 74% of upcoming maturities are non-sponsored

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

35

Maturing volume ($Bils.)

16

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Maturing volume ($Bils.)

40

18

• $127 billion in institutional tranches is coming due in next 3 years Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

38

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Market Survey – What will happen with all the MM maturities approaching in the next 3 to 4 years?

60%

% of respondents

50% 40%

30% 20% 10% 0% Majority refinanced at higher spreads

Amends and extends will become popular

Solution hard to find, defaults

HY Issuance will reach MM names

Strategic buyers will acquire

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

39

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Market Survey What are your expectations for issuance in 3Q09? Moderate decrease ( 5 to 15%) 5% Significant increase (>15%) 11% Remain flat 16%

Moderate Increase (5 to 15%) 68%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

40

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Market Survey What will be the most important issue in middle market lending in 3Q09? – Economic outlook – Increasing default rates – Liquidity is still constrained – Lack of new deal flow – beginning of the “summer doldrums” – Existing portfolio performance – Do buyer and seller expectations meet? What happens to purchase price multiples? – Sustainability of high-yield rally – Uncertain outcomes for M&A processes

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

41

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Thank you for participating in today’s webinar: U.S. MIDDLE MARKET:

2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview: Better times ahead? Presenter: Diana Diquez, Senior Market Analyst Date: Thursday, July 16, 2009 Time: 11 AM Eastern Standard Time Duration: 1 hr [includes Q&A session] If you have any follow-up questions please e-mail us at [email protected] with “Middle Market” in the subject line Register for our 15th Annual Loan Conference on Sept. 17th! http://www.loanpricing.com/conference.html For a replay of the large corporate or middle market webinars please register at http://www.loanpricing.com/LPC_webinars.html 42