253 Bq Railroads Da

Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Railroads

A Ben Benson redux-compilation-update production

Railroads.................................................................................................................................................................1 File Explanation.....................................................................................................................................................4 Railroads 1NC........................................................................................................................................................5 Railroads 1NC........................................................................................................................................................6 Railroads 1NC........................................................................................................................................................7 Coal Prices High Now............................................................................................................................................8 Coal Prices High Now............................................................................................................................................9 Coal Prices High Now..........................................................................................................................................10 Coal Demand High Now......................................................................................................................................11 Coal Demand High Now......................................................................................................................................12 US Coal Demand High Now................................................................................................................................13 US Coal Demand High.........................................................................................................................................14 Renewables Links................................................................................................................................................15 Renewables Links................................................................................................................................................16 Credit Trading Link.............................................................................................................................................17 RPS Links.............................................................................................................................................................18 RPS Links.............................................................................................................................................................19 RPS Links.............................................................................................................................................................20 PTC Links.............................................................................................................................................................21 Wind Links...........................................................................................................................................................22 Wind Links...........................................................................................................................................................23 Wind Links...........................................................................................................................................................24 Solar Links............................................................................................................................................................25 Solar Links............................................................................................................................................................26 Solar Links............................................................................................................................................................27 Solar Links............................................................................................................................................................28 Nuclear Power Links...........................................................................................................................................29 Nuclear Power Links...........................................................................................................................................30 Nuclear Power Links...........................................................................................................................................31 Nuclear Power Links...........................................................................................................................................32 Nuclear Power Links...........................................................................................................................................33 1

Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson Railroads Profitable Now – Coal........................................................................................................................35 Railroads Profitable Now....................................................................................................................................36 Railroads Profitable Now....................................................................................................................................37 Railroads Profitable Now....................................................................................................................................38 Coal Key to Railroad Profits...............................................................................................................................39 Coal Key to Railroad Profits...............................................................................................................................40 Coal Demand Key to Railroad Infrastructure..................................................................................................41 Coal Demand Key to Railroad Infrastructure..................................................................................................42 Profits Key to Railroad Infrastructure..............................................................................................................43 Infrastructure Key to Solve Derailment............................................................................................................44 Derailment Impact – Nuclear Terrorism...........................................................................................................45 Derailment Impact – Mobile Chernobyl/Dirty Bombs.....................................................................................46 Mobile Chernobyl Causes Econ Collapse..........................................................................................................47 Mobile Chernobyl Causes Econ Collapse..........................................................................................................48 Derailment Impact – Toxic Chemicals/Environment.......................................................................................49 Turns the Case – Infrastructure Decreases Emissions.....................................................................................50 Turns the Case – Railroads Decrease GHGs.....................................................................................................51 Railroads Key to Readiness.................................................................................................................................52 Railroads Key to the Economy...........................................................................................................................53 Railroads Key to the Economy...........................................................................................................................54 Railroads Key to the Economy...........................................................................................................................55 Railroads Key to the Economy...........................................................................................................................56 Railroads Key to Agriculture..............................................................................................................................57 Railroads Key to Low Food Prices.....................................................................................................................58 Food Prices Impacts – Starvation.......................................................................................................................59 Food Prices Impacts – Pakistan..........................................................................................................................60 Food Prices Impacts – Pakistan..........................................................................................................................61 Food Prices Impacts – Economy.........................................................................................................................62 AT: Clean Coal Solves - Renewables..................................................................................................................63 AT: Clean Coal Solves – Cap and Trade............................................................................................................63 AT: Clean Coal Solves - RPS...............................................................................................................................65 AT: Clean Coal Solves - Wind.............................................................................................................................66 AT: Clean Coal Solves - Solar.............................................................................................................................67 2

Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson AT: Railroads Losing Market Share Now.........................................................................................................68 AT: Railroad Profits Resilient.............................................................................................................................69 AT: Nuclear Shipments Low...............................................................................................................................70 AT: Railroads Failing Now..................................................................................................................................71 AT: DoE Routes Turn..........................................................................................................................................72 AT: Nuclear Trades of with Natural Gas, not Coal...........................................................................................73 AT: Budget Not key to Infrastructure Investment............................................................................................74 AT: Cars are Super Strong..................................................................................................................................75 AT: New Tech Solves............................................................................................................................................76 AT: Budget not key to Infrastructure Investment............................................................................................77 AT: Coal Peak coming by X year........................................................................................................................77 A2 Coal Prices falling now..................................................................................................................................78 A2 Exports Turn...................................................................................................................................................79 A2 Railroads can’t keep up with production.....................................................................................................80 A2 Rising demand doesn’t mean investment.....................................................................................................81 A2 Derailment impacts: 5% is dangerous.........................................................................................................82 A2 Derailment impacts: 5% is dangerous.........................................................................................................83 AT: Infrastructure not key to Safety..................................................................................................................84 2NC Short Overview ...........................................................................................................................................85

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

File Explanation

This is an amazing disad. I have been impressed with it since I saw the coal generic. Subsequent smaller files have been released without proper titles or cohesion with previous files. Here is the compilation of the files in one coherent and complete file as well as some additions. It starts with the 1NC shell followed by all of the generic coal uniqueness cards. The next contains specific links to nearly every affirmative. This section is followed by additional impact scenarios and turns case scenarios. The AT: section begins with case specific to the clean coal turn (plan increases clean coal, which the trains can then transport) to nearly every affirmative. There should be more generic answers to these claims in other generics as well. The rest is general ATs as well as a simple 2NC overview that explains the basic 1NC shell and leaves the impact portion open for you to discuss whichever ones you choose to read in the round. If you have any questions, you can email me at [email protected]. I think this picture bests describes your round should look like with this file:

I’m Ted “The Iceman” Jackson – Check me

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Railroads 1NC

A. Railroads are booming now because of demand for commodities like coal Alex Roth, staff writer, 6/25/08, “Vote ’08: CSX vs. Activists”, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121433409393200635.html?mod=googlenews_wsj CSX Corp. and two activist hedge funds with big stakes in the railroad company have bickered for months -- over past performance, profit potential, plans for capital investment and even how to interpret the company's balance sheet.They've fought to a de facto impasse in federal court over securities law.They've even argued about the location of the annual shareholder meeting, a New Orleans railyard that CSX calls a showpiece. The investors have labeled it "a swamp."Now, shareholders are scheduled to decide Wednesday morning whether to give five of 12 CSX board seats to candidates offered by The Children's Investment Fund and 3G Capital Partners LP, the activist hedge funds that control at least 8.7% of the company's stock. Through so-called stock swaps, the funds have an economic interest in a substantial additional block totaling more than 11% of CSX shares.The proxy vote comes at a pivotal time in the railroad industry. Trains in the U.S. are undergoing a boom not seen in decades, spurred in part by railroads' fuel-efficiency advantages over trucking and their ability to bypass the country's increasingly clogged highways.Big-name investors such as Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn have taken sizable positions in some of the U.S.'s biggest railroads, including Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., and Union Pacific Corp. Stock prices have soared. Since the end of 2002, the Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. Railroads Index has increased nearly 240%. By comparison, the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index is up roughly 61% over the same period.Last year, TCI, headed by London financier Christopher Hohn, began accumulating shares of CSX, which operates a 21,000-mile rail network in 23 states, mostly in the eastern U.S. The company reported $2.3 billion in operating income in 2007. Roughly half its revenue comes from freight such as agricultural products, crushed stone and metal; a quarter comes from transporting coal.CSX management says the company is performing well and needs no infusion of outside leadership on its board. The stock has more than tripled under the leadership of Chief Executive Michael Ward, who took the helm in 2003.

B. Alternative energy increases railroad competition for remaining coal shipments, driving down profits Association of American Railroads, 10/07, http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/294.ashx Coal-fired power plants compete against power plants fueled by other energy sources. In 2006, for example, fuel sources other than coal accounted for more than half of U.S. electricity generation. Railroads had little or no involvement with this generation. This “product competition” constrains railroads, since a railroad serving a coal-fired power plant must price its services low enough to make that plant’s electricity competitive compared to electricity generated from another fuel source. Coal-hauling railroads also face strong “geographic competition”---i.e., the ability of a utility to obtain coal from different mines served by different railroads or modes of transportation. Product and geographic competition will continue to be an important means for utilities to constrain rail rates. For years, significant change has been taking place in the electric power industry, including greater competition and interconnection between utilities as a result of “Wheeling”; improved gas turbine technology, and increasingly-restrictive environmental regulations. Electricity consumers often can obtain electricity purchased on the wholesale market or produced from natural has and other fuel sources as an alternative to electricity generated from coal.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Railroads 1NC

C. Profits from coal are key to infrastructure investments Richard Freeman is the Herbert Ascherman Chair in Economics at Harvard, “Rebuilding U.S. Rail System Is Top Priority,” 9/6/2002, http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2934rail_infra.html Over the last 30 years, the railroads have become radically dependent on transporting coal. Many of the new improvements that rail companies have made, and the new locomotives they have bought, have been on the lines that come from Powder Basin, Wyoming, bringing low-sulfur coal to the East Coast. This raises a real question about American energy policy. While coal is a legitimate source for power generation, its use ultimately should be declining, were the United States serious about developing nuclear power, using high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (and eventually developing the higher energy-flux density fusion power). But instead, coal's use is dramatically increasing: In 1970, of all the goods originated by the rail industry, coal constituted 405 million tons, or 27% of the total; but by 2000, coal constituted 758 tons, or 44% of the total.

D. Poor infrastructure causes radioactive catastrophe Kevin Kamps, Nuclear Information and Resource Service Office, 10/25/04, http://www.nirs.org/press/10-25-2004/1 Detroit, MI -- According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), highly radioactive nuclear fuel rods could travel the same railway that experienced the train derailment involving highly flammable methyl alcohol in Detroit this morning. Concerned citizens' groups fear that if high-level radioactive waste were to be involved in a massive methyl alcohol explosion or fire, as could have happened in Detroit today, a radioactive catastrophe could result. A brand new website shows that the proposed high-level radioactive waste shipping route passes within 0.3 miles of Greenfield Union Elementary School, one of the two schools evacuated today due to the train derailment in Detroit. An address can be typed into the website at http://www.ewg.org/reports/nuclearwaste/find_address.php, and a map showing the distance to a proposed high-level radioactive waste transport route will be generated. The website is based upon DOE's high-level radioactive waste transportation route maps which were released in February, 2002 as part of the Final Environmental Impact Statement for the proposed national dump at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. A copy of this DOE map is attached. The Environmental Working Group website also lists schools and hospitals in Detroit that are located next to the proposed high-level radioactive waste shipping route (see www.ewg.org/reports/nuclearwaste/schoolhosp.php?stab=US).

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Railroads 1NC

E. Another nuclear accident will cause extinction Charles Hyder, B.S. and M.S. degrees in physics from University of New Mexico and PhD in astrogeophysics from the University of Colorado, formerly employed by NASA, UCLA, UNM and the Southwest Research and Information Center, 2001, “Human Extinction on this Chernobyl-Contaminated Planet”, http://members.fortunecity.com/osservatorio/charleshyderbook2.html Herein a mathematical and empirical model involving a cause-and-effect relationship between Chernobyl's Radioactive releases, Species' Extinctions (Amphibia first!), and Human Survival is presented. It is a powerful statement. What is needed to specify and clarify the true nature of the global extinctions is to take definitive measurements of radioactive Pu, Sr, Cs, U, Br, Kr, Rb, I and Xe concentrations in all Amphibia, Humans, etc. and in their environments, predators, and prey worldwide. These measurements would be the basis for the definitive empirical models for the quantitative relationships between Chernobyl radioactivity, species Extinctions (Amphibia first!) and Human Survival. The sooner that these global measurements of radioactive isotopes in Amphibia, Humans, environments, etc. are taken, the sooner we can determine what steps really need to be taken over what time-scales. Never forget: One of the 450 operating nuclear reactors is the world's next Chernobyl racing toward its explosive extinction and the next wave of worldwide, radioactive mass extinctions of Humans, more amphibia and most other vertebrates. There is no compromise with nature! We must comply with nature's laws or fail. As a species, we pursue imaginative, unlikely, and remote doomsday scenarios when the inevitable repeat of Chernobyl explosions, and their immediate and chronic releases, will complete the purge of Amphibia started at Chernobyl. The rest of us earthlings will be engulfed too. I have developed a much deeper respect for Sternglass, Gofman, Gould, Tamplin, et ilk who have had the courage to calculate, address, observe and think about the real costs of the Global Nuclear Folly in real numbers. I have taken that step that glimpses the specific horrors that will befall the untold billions of Chernobyl's victims, 1986-2075 AD (Cs-137 globally plus Pu and Sr90 locally). We must do all that can be done to minimize, then to end, the global horrors that the unbridled nuclear technologies have brought down on our heads.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Coal Prices High Now

Despite recent shocks, prices remain high Alex Wilson, Staff Writer, Dow Jones, 7-3-08, Posted on the Australian Business, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23963477-5005200,00.html, Junaid Market commentators also said prices in Asia were set to stay high with all the indicators pointing to ongoing tightness in the market. The Newcastle spot coal price fell sharply today, following on from a 20 per cent drop in spot thermal coal prices in Europe overnight, sparking heavy selling in Australian coal stocks. However the price drop is only a partial retracement of gains seen in recent weeks when the spot coal price surged ahead of the recently agreed contract prices for Asian buyers of $US125 a metric tonne, and appears to be a temporary reversal. Brendan Harris, mining analyst at Macquarie, said the coal market remains tight with prices set to stay high and the pullback overnight would not be prompting him to downgrade earnings for the Australian miners he covers.

Coal Prices soaring- demand Tom Fletcher, Staff Writer, BC Local News, 7-14-08, http://www.bclocalnews.com/business/25412649.html, Junaid B.C.'s coal industry came off a weak 2007 with prices more than doubling so far this year for all types of coal, and that trend is expected to continue. The price of metallurgical coal, used in steel production, is forecast to rise from an average $85 per tonne in 2007 to $198 this year, according to BC Stats. For the highest-grade metallurgical coal, B.C. producers have signed some contracts for more than $300 per tonne. Despite coal's high concentration of carbon and particulate emissions, demand from steel-producing countries Japan, South Korea, Brazil, China and India has driven up prices. B.C. coal also benefited from supply problems including flooded mines in Australia, safety-related mine closures in Russia and heavy snowfall in Chinese coal production areas.

Despite drops, prices are high Bloomberg, 7-14-08, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aR42fKuwDfXA&refer=australia, Junaid July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Thermal coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, fell for the first time in 12 weeks, dropping 3.5 percent from a record. The weekly index for power-station coal prices at the New South Wales port declined $6.79 to $188 a metric ton in the period ended July 11, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. The index last week rose to a sixth consecutive record, reaching $194.79 a ton. ``The market is signaling the upward momentum is probably easing from here,'' Mark Pervan, senior commodity analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said today in Melbourne. ``When you get well over historical highs, the market is trying to find a ceiling price, and we may have found that last week.''

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Coal Prices High Now

Asian countries’ demand maintains high coal prices Seeking Alpha, Stock Market Analysis site, July 03, 2008, “Rising Asian Demand Keeps Coal Prices Inflated, Energy Stocks: Coal” http://seekingalpha.com/article/83756-rising-asian-demand-keeps-coal-prices-inflated [Bapodra] In May, China reverted to being a net coal importer, with imports exceeding exports by 250,000 metric tonnes, as local output failed to keep pace with demand. Between January fiscal ‘08 and May fiscal ‘08, China’s coal exports fell 4.1 per cent on year, to 18.5 million tonnes. Vietnam said today it will reduce its coal exports by 10 million tonnes or 31 per cent this year to meet growing domestic demand. Currently a major coal exporter in the region, Vietnam has said it plans to progressively reduce its exports until 2015 when it plans to halt them altogether, as it redirects coal to domestic electricity generation to power its booming economy. It is not surprising to see volatility in the coal market, but analysts believe the fundamentals will support prices at very strong levels into 2009. Yes, spot coal prices could ease in coming months, but infrastructure constraints in Australia (Australia is the world’s largest supplier of sea-borne coal) and rising demand in Asia are likely to keep a high floor on prices.

Prices will rise due to soaring demand Reuters, 3-3-08, http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD20866820080303, Junaid SYDNEY, March 4 (Reuters) - Asian demand for thermal coal is expected to rise 6.3 percent this year, underpinned by soaring power demand from China and India, an Australian government report said on Tuesday, adding prices were likely to keep rising. The Australian Bureau for Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) said demand for imported coal in Asia would rise by 23 million tonnes this year to 390.9 million tonnes, upgraded from a December forecast for 361.4 million tonnes. "Several countries, including India, China, the Republic of Korea and Malaysia, have advanced plans to increase coal-fired electricity generation capacity to meet growing power demand," ABARE said in its quarterly report.

Cost of coal has been shooting up SABC News, 7-18-08, http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/general/0,2172,173443,00.html, Junaid Eskom has reported a significant decline in its profit before tax for the year ending in March, mainly because of the price of coal and diesel. Profits fell from R6.5 billion last year to R3.2 billion. The utility says the costs of diesel and coal have increased by 40% during the period under review. However, revenue rose to R44.4bn from R40bn the previous year. Despite the approval of a 27% electricity hike that Eskom received, the company says its problems are far from over. Coal costs increased by R5 billion for the period. Coal is used to generate almost 80% of Eskom's electricity. The utility is currently sitting on R7.5 billion rand in unrecoverable expenditure. And due to electricity supply constraints, some power stations are running above capacity, pushing-up the demand for additional coal. Eskom's CEO Jacob Maroga says the company is currently using 21% of short-term coal contracts compared to 2% in 2001.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Coal Prices High Now

Coal costs have been consistently rising Blooomberg, 7-7-08, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aRcgAZrZVGcI&ref er=australia, Junaid July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Thermal coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, rose 13 percent to a record for a sixth week amid reduced supplies of the fuel. The weekly index for power-station coal prices at the port in New South Wales state gained $22.69 to $194.79 a metric ton in the week ended July 4, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. The volume shipped in the week ended 7 a.m. local time today fell 17 percent to 1.7 million metric tons from 2.06 million tons a week earlier, Newcastle Port Corp. said today on its Web site. Australian producers, the world's largest exporters of the fuel, are switching output to semi-soft coal from thermal coal to take advantage of higher prices, reducing supply of power station coal, Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said today by phone. ``That is tightening the thermal coal market; you are basically taking thermal coal supplies out of the market,'' Pervan said. ``That is an additional squeeze on the market so it is no surprise we are seeing these higher prices.'' The weekly globalCOAL index is up 46 percent since the start of May. The monthly index gained 18 percent to $163.68 a ton in June, from $138.31 the previous month.

Demand is pushing prices Blooomberg, 7-7-08, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aRcgAZrZVGcI&ref er=australia, Junaid Thermal coal prices will remain at record levels into next year as power stations demand more of the fuel and railroad and port bottlenecks in Australia and South Africa limit supply, Preston Chiaro, the head of Rio Tinto Group's energy unit, said June 6. ``We have seen the bulk of the gains; we are now at a point where it is going to struggle to push much higher,'' ANZ's Pervan said of the current Newcastle spot price. ``I think $194 a ton is getting pretty close to the upper limits.''

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Coal Demand High Now

High price of oil driving demand for coal Mineweb, “Atlantic Coal releases final results,” Company Releases, 7/17/2008, Anthracite coal, washed and sized into eight products, is sold into the domestic heating and industrial markets. Domestic heating market demand remains robust and commands the highest prices. Coal is sold to dealers for final delivery to households utilizing coal as a primary or secondary heating fuel. The north eastern states of the US consume approximately 85% of total USA fuel oil used for heat. As the price of fuel oil has escalated unabated, demand for anthracite coal as a primary fuel for heating has surged. This demand is further bolstered by the substantial increase in shipments of hand fired coal stoves into the market. The weighted average selling price for this segment of the market was $130 per tonne. It remains an attractive and dynamic segment of the market. Industrial market consumption is concentrated on steel producers using anthracite as a carbon additive in their melting shop operations. Steel production continues at high levels with concomitant demand for coal. The high quality of Mammoth seam anthracite mined by SCG creates a superior high fixed carbon product for the steel market. These very characteristics also make our coal desirable for use in ore reduction processes with potential future demand by this segment. Industrial markets are price competitive with the weighted average selling price.

Demand for coal is coming back Bob Reynolds, Staff Writer, WNEP News Station, 7-9-08, http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=8649997&nav=menu158_1,

Junaid

Coal is making a big comeback in some areas. That means more jobs and more demand for certain products that bring with them lower fuel costs. Pete Onuskanich of Pottsville showed off his new coal-fired furnace in his Pottsville home. The high cost of home heating oil pushed Onuskanich to invest $5,000 for the furnace and the installation. Having a coal unit takes a little more effort, loading the coal and taking out the ashes. "Go to coal. It's a lot cheaper, maybe a little bit of work but if you're that lazy there's nothing I can do about it," Onuskanich said.

Coal Demand boom likely to last Reuters, 6-26-08, http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKN2625742720080626m, Junaid NEW YORK (Reuters) - Unlike previous U.S. coal booms, the current one is likely to last because of persistent world demand and output problems in other producing countries, an industry analyst said Thursday. Jim Griffin, managing director of Rothschild Inc, told the 2008 McCloskey Coal USA conference that some factors in today's coal market resemble the boombust cycle of the 1980s, such as strong Asian demand and a weak dollar. But now is different, he said, citing the difficulty of expanding coal production amid regulatory, labor and financing challenges. He also cited the breadth of world economic growth that is driving persistent coal demand.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Coal Demand High Now

Coal Demand has reached record levels AP, Associated Press, 7-27-08, Posted on CNN, http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/fe0a5d47eda58198fd91b624f9c62b79.htm, Junaid NEW YORK (Associated Press) - International demand is leading coal prices to near-record levels. Weather-related disruptions and other global supply problems have shined a spotlight on U.S. miners. Calyon Securities analyst Gordon Howald says despite their meteoric rise, coal shares have room to grow. He recommends taking advantage of pull-backs to snap up what he calls strong players like Arch Coal Inc. and Foundation Coal Holdings. He raised his rating on the two to "add" from "neutral." Howald raised his target on Peabody Energy Corp. to $88 from $66. He predicts prices for coal, like other commodities, will climb through next year. The price of coal used in steel production is booming and steam coal, used in boilers to produce electricity, could gain even more as utilities renew annual contracts with customers. Demand could also rise if the summer is unusually warm, he says.

Demand is sky high Bloomberg, 10-30-07, Posted on Herald Tribune, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/29/bloomberg/sxcoal.php, Junaid Energy coal prices at the port of Newcastle, Australia, the world's biggest export harbor for the fuel, rose 1.3 percent to a record on expectations of supply shortages in Asia and a disruption to deliveries from a Queensland State mine. Coal for immediate delivery at Newcastle rose 96 cents to $76.95 a metric ton in the week ended last Friday, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. The previous all-time high was $76.16 reached two weeks ago. Supply has struggled to meet demand this year because of bottlenecks in producer countries like Australia and South Africa, and as China became a net importer of coal for the first time. Anglo American, the world's second-biggest mining company, last week declared force majeure on shipments from the Dawson mine in Queensland. "It's the expectations that demand continues to outpace supply so the market is in deficit; it's about people's perceptions of what is around the corner," Rory Simington, a senior coal analyst at AME Mineral Economics in Sydney, said of the record price. "We're coming into a period of higher demand, winter is approaching, and people are wondering where the additional supply is going to come from."

High demand in the future- Asian imports EIA, Energy Information Administration, Jan 2007, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Australia/Background.html, Junaid Australia is one of the few countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that is a significant net energy exporter. Australia is the world’s largest coal exporter and is the fifth largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Australia’s prospects for expanding energy exports in the future are promising as Asian demand for both coal and LNG rises. However, Australia can expect increasing export competition from China (coal) and Indonesia (coal and LNG).

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

US Coal Demand High Now

US coal demand high WSJ, Wall Street Journal, June 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426607541798571.html?mod=googlenews_wsj, Junaid U.S. coal producers have been largely unable to meet growing demand because of a lengthy permitting process, lack of capital investment and a shortage of skilled miners, which will keep supplies tight and prices high. The underlying industrywide issues are compounded by severe floods in the Midwest, which have stranded barges full of coal and submerged railcars used to haul coal. It isn't clear what impact those interruptions will have on supplies and prices. Paul Forward, a coal analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., expects demand for coal in the U.S. to outstrip supply this year by 15 million tons, in large part because of the increase in exports, which shot up 49% through April compared with last year. Constraints to production also played a role in the growing shortfall, he said.

Coal is in high demand in the US- low cost alternative Richard Heinberg, Staff Writer, Global Public Media, 5-28-08, http://globalpublicmedia.com/museletter_194_coal_in_the_united_states, Junaid The sheer amounts of coal that will be needed in order to offset any significant proportion of oil (and perhaps also natural gas) consumption, and to meet the projected increased demand for electricity, are mind-boggling. Coal is a lower-quality fossil fuel in the best case, and America is being forced to use ever lower-quality coal. Just to offset the declining heating value of US coal while meeting EIA forecasts for electricity demand growth by 2030, the nation will then have to mine roughly 80 percent more coal then than it is doing currently. If carbon sequestration and other new technologies for consuming coal are implemented, they will increase the amount of coal required in order to produce the same amount of energy for society’s use, since the energy penalty for capture and sequestration is estimated at up to 40 percent. A broad-scale effort to produce synthetic liquid fuels from coal (CTL) will also dramatically increase coal demand. If the current trend to expand coal exports continues, this would stimulate demand even further. Altogether, there is a realistic potential for more than a doubling, perhaps even a tripling, of US coal demand and production by 2030—which would hasten exhaustion of the resource from many current mining regions and draw the inevitable production peak closer in time.

US coal consumption is high and growing Association of American Railroads, 10/07, http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/294.ashx U.S. coal production and consumption will almost certainly continue to grow. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2007, released in January 2007, the EIA projects 1.5 percent average annual growth in U.S coal production through 2025, due mainly to increasing coal use for electricity generation. Assuming no major changes in emissions legislation, Western coal production is forecast to increase far more quickly than interior production; Appalachian production is forecast to fall slightly.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

US Coal Demand High

Coal remains in high demand Kirby Lee Davis, Staff Writer, Journal Record, 3-12-08, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4182/is_20080312/ai_n24936262, Junaid "The cost of electricity is driven by a large part on the percent of coal used to generate it," said Craft, defending his industry's performance and interests while linking future gross domestic product growth to a continued abundance of inexpensive electricity. "Coal remains the low-cost alternative." Craft said electrical power generation by coal-fueled plants rose 50 percent last year to 3.9 billion kilowatts per hour. Federal government projections estimate that will grow to 4.9 billion kilowatts by 2030, with improved sulfur removal technologies allowing the coal-fired market share to hit 57 percent. Coal usage is projected to rise 48 percent over that period, he said, comprising the majority of power generation. Renewable sources would increase 60 percent, he said, while nuclear power generation would climb 19 percent and petroleum sources 9 percent.

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Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson

Renewables Links

Alternative Energy will replace coal – tops experts agree Ethan Goffman, politics correspondent, 6/17/08 (“Renewable Energy Likely to Overtake Oil And Coal Sooner than You Think” Gather, ) Renewable energy is expanding voraciously and will do so even faster, according to experts at a Worldwatch Institute panel (Tipping Point). Wind power is already in the midst of an explosion, under-remarked on in the mainstream media, and other renewable energies, such as solar and cellulose ethanol, are likely to follow. Worldwatch President Chris Flavin explains that we are at an amazing moment in the history of energy, a transformational moment, driven by historic high energy costs, concern about climate change, and the worldwide impact of government policies. Wind, solar, and other renewables are likely to replace oil and gas sooner rather than later. Renewable energy has accelerated greatly in the last three years, and the scope and import of this expansion are severely under-reported, according to Worldwatch fellow and energy expert Eric Martinot. Investment in new renewable capacity hit $71 billion dollars in 2007 and continues to exceed expectations. Government policy has been a key driver, Martinot says, overcoming resistance to renewable energy. If current policies supporting renewable energy are simply maintained, he believes that the momentum will be unstoppable. Venture capitalist Michael Liebreich, an expert in renewable energy investment, explains that the implications of current growth are far bigger than people think. Conventional energy use is growing only incrementally, as opposed to the exponential growth of renewable energy, which is accelerating with stunning speed. Conventional thinking, which sees oil and coal as virtually unchallenged, is all wrong, according to Liebreich. This is because the big curve upward of renewable energy will inevitably beat the little curve of conventional energy.

Alternative Energy shafts coal – World Energy Council Agrees Ingvar B. Fridleifsson, United Nations University—Geothermal Training Programm, 12/03 “Status of geothermal energy amongst the world's energy sources” Geothermics Volume 32, Issues 4-6, Science Direct, ) The World Energy Council (WEC) has presented several scenarios for meeting the future energy requirements, with varying emphases on economic growth rates, technological progress, environmental protection and international equity. All the scenarios provide for substantial social and economic development, particularly in the developing countries. They provide for improved energy efficiencies and environmental compatibility. During 1990–2050, the primary energy consumption is expected to increase by some 50% according to the most environmentally conscious scenario, and by some 275% according to the highest growth rate scenario. In the environmental scenario, the carbon emissions are expected to decrease slightly from 1990 levels. The high growth rate scenario is expected to lead to a doubling of the carbon emissions ([Nakicenovic et al., 1998]). The scarcity of energy resources forecasted in the 1970s did not occur. With technological and economic development, estimates of the ultimately available energy resource base continue to increase. Economic development over the next century will apparently not be constrained by geological resources. Environmental concerns, financing, and technological constraints appear more likely to limit future development. In all WEC scenarios, the peak of the fossil fuel era has already passed. Oil and gas are expected to continue to be important sources of energy in all cases, but the role of renewable energy sources and nuclear energy varies widely in these scenarios as does the level to which these energy sources replace coal. In all the scenarios, the renewables are expected to become very significant contributors to the world primary energy consumption, providing 20–40% of the primary energy in 2050 and 30–80% in 2100. They are expected to cover a large part of the increase in energy consumption and to replace coal.

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Renewables Links

Renewable energy replaces coal within a few years Moreland Energy Foundation – No Date (“Renewable energy can replace coal!” < http://www.mefl.com.au/documents/MW_renewable_baseload.pdf.> The short answer is yes. There are many sources of renewable energy which can already provide strong and steady electricity to supply our baseload needs as well as our peak demand. In order to make this happen, we must start scaling up our installation of renewable energy, develop a broad range of renewable energy technologies, and combine investment in renewable energy with strong programs to save energy. By doing these three things on a large-scale, within a few years we could start turning off the most polluting coal-fired power stations and replacing them either with megawatts of power produced by renewable energy, or ‘negawatts’ of power saved by cutting energy waste.

Coal will be relied upon until we develop large-scale alternative energy sources Eric McLamb is the president of Ecology Communications and went to the University of North Carolina at Capitol Hill, “Fossils Fuels vs. Renewable Energy Resources: Energy's Future Today” Ecology: Global Network, No Date http://www.ecology.com/features/fossilvsrenewable/fossilvsrenewable.html The oil, coal and natural gas companies know these are serious problems. But until our renewable energy sources become more viable as major energy providers, the only the alternative for our global population is for these companies to continue tapping into the fossil fuel reserves to meet our energy needs. And, you can pretty much count on these companies being there providing energy from renewable sources when the fossil fuels are depleted. Many oil companies, for example, are involved in the development of more reliable renewable energy technologies. For example, British Petroleum Company, today known as BP, has become one of the world's leading providers of solar energy through its BP Solar division, a business that they are planning on eclipsing their oil production business in the near future.

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Credit Trading Link

Credit trading sends a signal mandatory reductions are coming – this decimates coal Marlo Lewis, Sr. Fellow at Competitive Enterprise Institute, April 27, 2004, Et Tu, Edison?, http://cei.org/gencon/019,03981.cfm Coal is the most carbon-intensive fuel (CO2 emissions per unit of energy obtained from coal are nearly 80 percent higher than those from natural gas and about 35 percent higher than those from gasoline).[4] Consequently, Kyoto-type policies can easily decimate coal as a fuel source for electric power generation. For example, according to EIA’s analysis, the McCain-Lieberman bill would reduce U.S. coal-fired electric generation in 2025 by 80 percent—from 2,803 billion kilowatt hours to 560 billion kilowatt hours.[5] A transferable credit program will send a political signal that mandatory reductions are in the offing and, hence, that coal’s days are numbered. As environmental lawyer William Pedersen observes, the Administration’s plan to develop “company-by-company greenhouse emissions accounts” makes little sense “except as a step towards legally binding controls.” Indeed, why would firms go to the trouble and expense of earning offsets applicable to a future regulatory program “unless they believed such a program was coming?”[6] DOE cannot issue or certify early credits without ratifying the opinion, tirelessly asserted by green groups, that some form of carbon regulation is “inevitable.” Anticipating such constraints, many companies will make plans to switch from coal to natural gas. That, in turn, will put additional pressure on already tight natural gas supplies.

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RPS Links

RPS dramatically reduces coal demand. EIA, 09-07, EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/eeim/execsummary.html The RPS causes a dramatic shift away from coal and natural gas to renewable fuels, particularly biomass and wind. Coal-fired electricity generation in the Policy Case is 938 billion kilowatthours (28 percent) lower in 2030 than in the Reference Case. Natural-gas-fired generation is 99 billion kilowatthours (11 percent) lower in 2030. Generation from nuclear power is 80 billion kilowatthours (9 percent) lower in 2030.

RPS decreases coal prices EIA, 06-07, EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/prps/rps.html The shift away from coal to renewable fuels, together with the costs of retail electricity sellers holding RPS credits, affects electricity prices. In 2030, EIA projects the national average electricity price with the RPS to be 2 percent higher than in the reference case, i.e., 8.2 cents per kilowatthour with the RPS compared to 8.1 cents per kilowatthour in the reference case. By 2030, prices for natural gas and coal, two key fuels for the electric power sector, are lower with the RPS than in the reference case.

RPS reduces coal demand and prices Renewable Energy World, 06-17-07, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ rea/news/infocus/story?id=48961 The increased use of renewable sources in the RPS case leads to lower coal generation. Nuclear and natural gas generation are also lowered to a lesser degree. Relative to the reference case, retail electricity prices rise by an average of 0.9 percent over the 2005 to 2030 period in the RPS case. Reduced demand for coal and natural gas in the RPS case results in slightly lower prices for these fuels by 2030 when compared to reference case projections.

RPS trades off with coal – proven several states Christopher Cooper, Senior Policy Director, and Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow, 6/07 (“Renewing America The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)” NETWORK FOR NEW ENERGY CHOICES Report No. 01-07 Pg 11 < http://www.newenergychoices.org/dev/uploads/RPS%20Report_Cooper _Sovacool_FINAL_HILL.pdf> ) • A national RPS would displace coal and natural gas. In a 2002 assessment of a 10% national RPS, the Department f Energy determined that “the imposition of a national RPS would lead to lower generation from natural gas and coal facilities.” Analysts have confirmed this trade-off in RPS states like Michigan, New York, Virginia, and Texas.

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RPS Links

RPS devastates the coal industry Christopher Cooper, Senior Policy Director, and Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow, 6/07 (“Renewing America The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)” NETWORK FOR NEW ENERGY CHOICES Report No. 01-07 Pg 44 < http://www.newenergychoices.org/dev/uploads/RPS%20Report_Cooper? > Some studies have also begun to document how RPS policies depress the price of other fossil fuels, such as oil and coal. In Pennsylvania, for example, where more than 90 percent of electricity comes from coal and nuclear resources, a study conducted by Black & Veatch concluded an aggressive RPS would result in a substantial reduction in fossil fuel consumption, lowering the price of coal and oil and ultimately providing cost savings to ratepayers. The study noted that even a 1 percent reduction in fossil fuel prices would lead to a $140 million reduction in fossil fuel expenditures for the state.

Projected demands will prioritize coal usage now; RPS would displace the coal industry Alan Nogee et al , Clean Energy Program Director with the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), 4/23/07 (Jeff Deyette, Energy Analyst with UCS, and Steve Clemmer, Research Director for UCS’ Clean Energy Program, “The Projected Impacts of a National Renewable Portfolio Standard” The Electricity Journal Volume 20, Issue 4, Science Direct, > Under the business as usual scenario (AEO 2004), the United States increases its dependence on coal and natural gas in order to meet a projected 30 percent increase in demand for electricity from 2005 to 2020 (Figure 2). Non-hydro renewable energy use nearly doubles between 2005 and 2020, mostly as a result of existing state RPS policies and the increasing ability of wind power to be cost competitive with conventional energy sources. However, the total contribution from non-hydro renewable energy increases from 2.4 percent to just 3.5 percent during that same period.24 Renewable energy diversifies the energy portfolio by meeting a much larger portion of U.S. electricity demand under a 20 percent national RPS (UCS assumptions). By 2020, non-hydro renewable energy accounts for 15.5 percent of total electric power generation (Figure 3).25 In the earlier years of the forecast, the increased renewable energy generation displaces more natural gas. In the latter years, as coal generation begins to compete with more expensive natural gas, renewable energy generation displaces more coal. However, new growth in both coal and natural gas are still needed under the RPS to meet the projected increase in energy demand by consumers. By 2020, nearly two-thirds of the increase in coal generation projected under business as usual is displaced as a result of the new renewable energy generation.

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RPS Links

Tradable RPS decreases coal generation Energy Information Administration 6/06 (“Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio Standard” Department of Energy, < http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/emice/pdf/sroiaf2006(02).pdf> ) This report responds to a request from Senator Norm Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy resources policy. The proposal, a copy of which is provided in Appendix B, requires retail electric suppliers to account for an increasing fraction of incremental sales growth with clean energy resources, including nonhydro renewable resources, new hydroelectric or nuclear resources, fuel cells, or an integrated gasification combined-cycle plant that sequesters its carbon emissions. Electric suppliers may also comply by purchasing tradable clean energy generation credits from other generators or by purchasing credits from the Federal government at a clean energy credit price of 2 cents per kilowatthour. Irrespective of the incremental target over the 3-year baseline sales period, suppliers are not required to hold credits in excess of 10 percent of their total prior-year sales in any year. Electric suppliers with less than 500,000 megawatthours of sales are exempt from the requirements. This analysis is based on the reference case from the Annual Energy Outlook 2006. The key findings include: • In aggregate, through 2019, the proposal does not induce any significant carbon-free generation above reference case levels because enough qualifying resources are built in the reference case to meet the Clean Energy Portfolio Standard (CEPS) targets. Reference case growth in renewable and nuclear generation is large enough to comply with the targets in those years. Sixty percent of the required clean energy generation in 2030 is achieved in the reference case. • In the last 10 years of the projections, additional nuclear and renewable generation is stimulated, and the clean energy target levels are achieved without the purchase of government-issued clean energy credits. • In 2020 CEPS credits are projected to begin trading at just below 1 cent (2004 dollars) per kilowatthour. Over the next few years, the credit price hovers just above 1 cent per kilowatthour before declining to between 0.3 and 0.5 cents per kilowatthour in the last 5 years of the projections as competing fossil fuel prices rise. • Almost 43 percent of the qualifying generation in 2030 is from new nuclear facilities (210 billion kilowatthours out of a requirement of 489 billion kilowatthours). Biomass (118 billion kilowatthours) and wind (90 billion kilowatthours) also provide substantial compliance generation. Other compliance generation comes from geothermal (42 billion kilowatthours), landfill gas (33 billion kilowatthours), and solar (6 billion kilowatthours). • The increase in carbon-free generation leads to lower coal and natural gas generation. By 2030, coal generation is reduced by over 5 percent, and natural gas generation is reduced by 2 percent from their respective reference case levels.

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PTC Links

Unique Link – Coal plants are set to grow, permanent tax credits substantially weaken the coal industry Janice Mays, Chief Counsel of the Committee on Ways & Means, 5/07 (“Analysis of Alternative Extensions of the Existing Production Tax Credit for Wind Generator” Energy Information Administration < http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ptc/> )

In the reference case, coal-fired plants are expected to grow as the primary source of electricity, increasing from 50 percent of total supply in 2005 to 57 percent in 2030. Both nuclear and natural gas plants provided 19 percent of total generation in 2005, but their 2030 shares of generation are projected to fall to 15 percent and 16 percent, respectively. While both technologies show a gradual growth in capacity over the forecast horizon, their shares decline because this growth is smaller than the corresponding increase in total electricity generation. In the reference case, wind generation is expected to more than triple over this 25-year period, although the share of total generation remains below 1 percent through 2030. Compared to the reference case, a five-year extension of the full PTC for wind facilities increases their generation in 2030 by almost 40 percent. The 1.5 cent tax credit has a nearly identical effect. In these cases, the share of total generation from wind is approximately 1.2 percent by 2030. A five-year extension with a reduced PTC of 1 cent per kilowatthour is not expected to result in additional wind power than what is projected under business-asusual conditions A permanent extension of the PTC increases wind generation in each of the credit amount cases. Compared to the reference case, a permanent extension of the current 1.9 cents per kilowatthour credit would more than triple 2030 generation from wind plants. With a similar extension and a lower PTC amount of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour, wind generation in 2030 would still more than double relative to the reference case, whereas the permanent extension of a PTC of 1.0 cent per kilowatthour would increase wind generation by about 40 percent over the reference case level in 2030. In this lowest credit amount extension case, wind generation at the end of the period is five-fold the 2005 level. The share of total electricity generation projected to come from wind facilities in 2030 with a permanent PTC extension ranges from 1 percent with a 1.0 cent per kilowatthour PTC to 3 percent with a 1.9 cent per kilowatthour credit. In each of the PTC extension cases, total electricity sales are unchanged. Therefore, the additional generation from wind displaces generation from other technologies. In the 1.9 cent five-year extension case, the 20 additional billion kilowatthours of generation from wind facilities slightly slows nuclear and coal expansions, although there is also less electricity generated from dedicated biomass facilities. This wind expansion results in 500 fewer megawatts of biomass capacity relative to the business-as-usual forecast. In 2030, when compared to the reference case results, nuclear generation is lesser by 10 billion kilowatthours, and there is a similar effect on coal generation. In the permanent extension cases, which have greater effects on the fuel mix, most of the additional wind generation is at the expense of coal generation growth. Nearly all of the 2030 wind power production levels that are above reference case levels result in a dampening of coal generation of the same magnitude. In the 1.9 cent permanent extension case, 122 billion kilowatthours of additional wind generation is balanced by a drop of 122 billion kilowatthours in electricity generated from coal. Even in this case, however, coal generation in 2030 is 59 percent above 2005 levels.

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Wind Links

Wind Power would tradeoff with coal if backed by government incentives MSNBC 8/23/01 (“Replace dirty coal with the wind, engineers say” < http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3071926> ) Wind power is now cheaper than coal and could become a leading source of electricity with the right political support and investment, researchers said Thursday. The Stanford engineers calculated that building some 225,000 wind turbines across the country would be expensive — at an initial cost of $338 billion — but that the payback would include a huge drop in emissions tied to global warming. “There is no reason not to invest in wind at this point,” said Mark Jacobson, a Sanford University professor of environmental engineering. “Wind is so obviously cheaper if we look at total costs.” Writing in the journal Science, Jacobson and Stanford colleague Gilbert Masters calculated that wind-generated energy costs 3 to 4 cents per kilowatt hour. Coal power is priced around there as well, but if you factor in the indirect health and environmental costs the price is more like 5.5 to 8.3 cents per kilowatt hour, the engineers calculated. The researchers also noted that coal dust kills 2,000 U.S. mine workers annually and has cost taxpayers about $35 billion in monetary and medical benefits to former miners since 1973. Karen Batra, a spokeswoman for the National Mining Association, acknowledged that coal mining has an environmental impact, but said “we are all working toward a goal of reducing emissions and have made tremendous strides in reducing emissions in the past 30 years since the Clean Air Act.” Critics of wind power argue that the turbines — which look like giant propellers — have been linked to the accidental deaths of migratory birds that get caught inside the propeller blades, and that the turbines take up a tremendous amount of space. But Jacobson said these problems could be avoided by selecting sites out of migration paths and by paying farmers to put them on their land. “Wind has trivial health and environmental problems associated with it in comparison with coal,” Jacobson said. Although wind power is the fastest growing source of energy in the world, the United States has been slow to use it because coal is so cheap and wind has received no government incentives, Jacobson said. Wind power provides the United States with less than 1 percent of its energy, compared to 52 percent from coal, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Analysts say the U.S. market will see 1,500 megawatts of new wind power installed by the end of the year. For America to catch up with major wind power nations such as Germany, Spain and Denmark, political backing by the Bush administration and Congress is essential, Jacobson said. In order to build more wind farms in the United States, lawmakers must be willing to offer the same investment opportunities and tax incentives given to the more established coal, gas and oil industries, he added. The energy bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this month focuses heavily on boosting domestic oil, coal and natural gas production, doing far less to promote wind power as an energy source. The Senate, still working on its version of the energy legislation, is virtually certain to focus on conservation and energy efficiency. The authors added that a massive campaign to build turbines, while costly, would have an additional payback: a sharp drop in carbon dioxide emissions, one of the gases that many scientists fear are warming Earth by trapping heat via a greenhouse effect. If around 225,000 turbines were built, Jacobson noted, it would cost an initial $338 billion with a minimum of $4 billion annually for maintenance. But doing so would eliminate almost two-thirds of coal-generated electricity and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions to below 1990 levels, the authors estimated.

A boost in wind power would decrease coal usage and deter the development of new coal technology Steven Mufson, Washington Post Staff Writer, 5/13/08 (“Wind Can Supply 20% of U.S. Electricity, Report Says” Washington Post, Lexis, ) The Energy Department said yesterday that the United States has the ability to meet 20 percent of its electricity-generation needs with wind by 2030, enough to displace 50 percent of natural gas consumption and 18 percent of coal consumption. But in a report drawn up by its national laboratories, the department said that meeting the target would require more improvements in turbine technology, cost reductions, new transmission lines, an expansion of the wind industry and a fivefold increase in the pace of wind-turbine installation. The report said a boost in wind capacity to 20 percent of electricity generation "could potentially defer the need to build some new coal capacity, avoiding or postponing the associated carbon emissions." The department said that expanding the use of wind to generate power could avert a need for more than 80 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity; its current projections say that new coal-fired plants capable of producing about 140 gigawatts of power could be built by 2030 to meet rising demand.

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Wind Links

Wind Power reduces the need for coal Climate Protection Agency 2/27/06 (“Replace Coal with Wind” < http://climateprotectioncampaign.typepad.com/cpc/2006/02/replace_coal_wi.html> ) Can wind power replace coal in the US for generating electricity? The answer is YES, and it can be done more cost-effectively than using nuclear. The US generates about half of its electricity using coal-fired power plants. Combustion of coal accounts for 37% of US greenhouse gas emissions overall, and 81% of emissions in the electricity sector. These coal plants will have to be shut down or replaced with other non-emitting electric power generation technologies. Efficiency improvements can take us a long way toward reducing the need for these coal plants. However, the power produced by these plants provides so-called "baseload" power, which will need to be generated by other sources.

Farmers would shift to wind New York Times 10/20/07 (“Fight Against Coal Plants Draws Diverse Partners” Lexis) For many farmers and ranchers, their aversion to coal is more pragmatic than philosophical. Their crops and livestock have been plagued by severe droughts and storms lately, and some wonder whether those are linked to global warming. Whether that proves to be the case, the strain on their finances has made them more interested in renewable-energy projects, like wind turbines, on their land. Janyce and Leonard Harms, who grow wheat and millet in Hereford, Colo., near the Wyoming and Nebraska borders, last year agreed to allow eight towering wind turbines on their land. The turbines are part of the new 274-turbine Cedar Creek wind farm owned by BP, the huge energy company, and Babcock & Brown. The project is expected to churn out electricity for some 90,000 homes, mostly near Denver. The Harmses, though a bit skeptical about coal plants, have not become involved in any battles. But they typify the fascination with wind energy that is sweeping rural America. They have received about $5,000 from the wind farm’s owners for leasing their land, and once the wind farm is fully operational by year’s end, they will receive at least $3,500 a year per turbine. “We’re not environmentalists by any means,” Ms. Harms said as she gazed through her sliding glass door at the huge turbines spinning in the distance. “I see this as supplemental income. We’re getting older and we’d like to retire. This is a great deal, and the fact that it’s clean energy makes it even better.”

Wind would replace coal due to carbon dioxide emissions David Keith, Adjunct Professor Department of EPP at Carnegie Mellon, 11/11/04 (“Wind Power and Climate Change” < http://www.ucalgary.ca/~keith/index.html>) The primary reason for building large amounts of wind-power is to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that cause climate changes such as global warming by replacing coal-fired power plants (and other carbon dioxide emitting power sources) with wind power. Suppose one builds a single wind-turbine and uses its power to replace electricity from a conventional coal-fired power plant. By reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the wind turbine will have a tiny (unmeasule) effect in reducing global climate change. The wind-turbine will also cause a tiny and likewise unmeasule amount of climate change by altering wind patterns. The question is what is the ratio of these two climatic changes? What is the ratio of climatic cost to benefit? This question matters for any amount of wind-power if it is build with the intention of reducing climate change.

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Wind Links

Wind Power supplants coal usage – its cheaper and at a lower risk to investors than other alternatives Climate Protection Campaign 3/2/06 (“Cost of Wind vs Cost of Nuclear to Replace Coal” Blog ) One of our commenters, David Bradish, has asked how wind is more cost effective than nuclear to replace coal. The short answer is: It is cheaper to build, cheaper to operate, and it is a lower risk to investors, which means that the cost of financing for wind is lower on private capital markets. To make this case I use figures from two sources: "The Projected Costs of Generating Electricity" produced by the International Energy Agency/Nuclear Energy Agency, and "The Future of Nuclear Power" produced by MIT. First, and most important, the cost of capital. Unlike in previous decades, much of the regulatory risk shield for utilities has been taken down by deregulation. Now new power plant projects must compete for capital on private capital markets, i.e., investors. Investors attach a cost to the money invested in terms of a return on capital. This is often expressed as a "discount rate" in financial calculations. Higher risk projects are expected to have a higher return, and thus the cost of the capital is assessed at a higher discount rate.

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Solar Links

A transition to solar power displaces coal plants Ken Zweibel et al, president of PrimeStar Solar, 12/07 (James Mason, director of the Solar Energy Campaign, and Vasilis Fthenakis, professor in at Columbia University’s Center for Life Cycle Analysis, “A Solar Grand Plan” Scientific American, < http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan> ) The federal government would have to invest more than $400 billion over the next 40 years to complete the 2050 plan. That investment is substantial, but the payoff is greater. Solar plants consume little or no fuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infrastructure would displace 300 large coal-fired power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cutting U.S. trade deficits and easing political tension in the Middle East and elsewhere. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free, the plan would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In 2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on global warming.

Solar Power reduces reliance on coal and fossil fuels David R. Mills and Robert G. Morgan, Principal Research Fellows of Solar Energy Group in the Department of Applied Physics of the University of Sydney, 7/3/08 (“A solar-powered economy: How solar thermal can replace coal, gas and oil” Renewable Energy World < http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reworld/story?id=52693>) Although it is often said that ‘solar cannot produce baseload electricity,’ STE is probably the only currently available technology that can be considered for a globally dominant role in the electricity sector over the next 40 years. Humankind evolved to be most active when the sun was up, and this is why human activity and energy usage correlate significantly with the energy delivery from direct solar systems. Additional seasonal correlations detected result from the influence of the US national building air-conditioning load, which is greater toward summer months when the sun delivers more direct solar energy to the earth’s surface. We have up to now largely neglected these advantageous correlations when designing power systems technology. Such hourly and seasonal natural correlations with energy output from a solar system are substantially enhanced using storage. An immediate advantage is that load-following solar plant does not need expensive peaking plant back-up and it is clear that natural correlations can be used to economic advantage in solar power system design. The relevance of baseload generation as a technical strategy needs to be carefully re-examined. Human activity does not correlate well with baseload coal or nuclear output and it should be recognized that baseload is what coal and nuclear technologies produce, not what is required by society and the environment. Solar power with storage can take up as much of the grid generation load or vehicle energy load as is desired, and can host other clean energy options by treating them as a negative grid load. A mixture of storage and non-storage renewable options thus appears to be fully self-consistent as an alternative to the present generation mix, with the main co-contributors to STE probably being hydro and wind. Not only is STE an energy option of great significance, but with only 16 hours of storage it has sufficient diurnal and seasonal natural correlation with electricity load to supply the great majority of the US national grid (and by logical extension, those of China and India) over the year, with the hourly solar radiation data including typical cloudy weather patterns. Furthermore, STE can supply much of an electrified transportation market without destroying these natural correlations. An almost complete elimination of both fossil-fuelled generation and oil usage for transportation in the US appears to be technically feasible and will cost less than continuing to import oil.

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Solar Links

Solar power reduces natural gas, which reduces coal usage Gar Lipow, guest contributor, 6/30/08 (“Power from rooftops could replace coal” Grist < http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/29/132129/715>) Enough sunlight strikes unshaded U.S. rooftops to replace all the coal and some of the natural gas we use to make electricity. Backup via ground source heat pumps, and smart grid technology would allow this variable energy source to displace base-load coal with today's technology. Whether this is the most cost effective way to displace coal is another question. Also rooftop solar is a silver BB rather than a silver bullet: Even after massive efficiency improvements we will need to get many times the power from nonrooftop sources than from rooftops. According to a 2003 study by the Energy Foundation (PDF), solar PV that converts 15 percent of sunlight to electricity could produce 710,000 Megawatts on rooftops that will be available in 2050. Doug Wood thinks that with concentrating PV using advanced aerospace quality cells we could convert solar at 30 percent rather than 15 percent efficiency. Scaling back to rooftops available today (using 2003 numbers from the same study and extrapolating forward) we could produce around 1.05 billion megawatts today. We normally assume 22 percent capacity factor (PDF) for PV. So that would give us about 2.3 billion megawatt hours, or around 56 percent of today's electrical production -- more than coal provides. Further, waste heat from this process could provide much of our heating and cooling needs as well. The EF study I cited suggests that about 65 percent of commercial roof space is unshaded compared to about 22 percent of residential roof space. Since some commercial scale chillers run on low to medium temp heat today, with enough storage solar CHP could provide close to 100 percent of commercial heating and cooling. But that much storage takes a lot of capital for a small incremental gain. So more realistically, we would put 16 to 24 hours of low temp Phase Change Material storage and use ground source heat pumps to provide the other 15 percent of low temp needs. As a side effect, the overnight storage would let us run those heat pumps when the electricity was cheapest -- which will prove more important than it might appear at first glance. The comparatively low mount of residential roof space available means you will only have 200 to 300 square feet of unshaded roof space available per home on average. I don't know if this means some houses provide a lot of available solar space, and others with none or if this is distributed more or less evenly per home. Even in the latter case, you will have a certain number of unshaded south walls, and a certain amount of yard space that could be devoted to solar generation. To be conservative, let's say that 40 percent of residential space heat and hot water could be provided as a side effect of concentrating PV electricity generation. Again, let's add PCM storage and the other 60 percent with ground source heat pumps. This is for existing buildings. New buildings could be designed to use 70 percent to 80 percent less energy through a combination of better insulation and sealing, passive solar, more efficient air exchange, and more efficient lighting and appliances. New buildings could also optimize the amount of solar oriented unshaded roof space. Now, since we are talking concentrating PV, we would have almost no control of when it would be generated -- mostly during the five peak hours of sunlight except when it was cloudy. However, we are assuming all space heating and cooling other than solar is switched to ground source heat pumps with PCM thermal storage. So when solar electricity was produced at a time it was not needed, it could run heat pumps to generate heat or cold in storage for climate control systems to draw on later. Sixty percent of 2005 residential heating and cooling was about 5.7 quad. Fifteen percent of 2005 commercial heating and cooling was about .6 quad. Without climate control efficiency improvements a climate control storage would let a smart grid absorb around 85 percent of solar electricity. If insulation and other improvements reduced climate control in existing buildings about 40 percent, climate control needs could still absorb about half. If we reduce climate control demand further, industry could add PCM and heat pumps to absorb pretty much as much of this as needed. Industry consumes about 33 quads. About 70 percent of this is used by boilers, and about 35 percent of boiler energy is used to produce process heat below 700 degrees Fahrenheit. That is 8 quads, or more than the total solar energy that would be produced. Because lower temperature heat is cheaper to store than high temperature, the highend of this would be a last resort; climate control would be the cheapest form of energy to store, followed by hot water at or below the boiling point, followed by hot water at not too much above the boiling point. Between residential, commercial, and industrial hot water I suspect we could place most of what space heating did not require without ever needing storage above the boiling point or below the freezing point of water. What is the bottom line on coal displacement? It would save slightly more electricity than we currently produce via coal, plus around as much again in displace climate control, hot water and low temp water heat. A small amount of this could displace coal use directly. But the majority would displace natural gas currently used for electricity production, climate control, hot water, and process heat. That natural gas in turn could be used to replace coal for base load, as a first step towards phasing out all fossil fuels, with a bit left over to contribute to phasing out oil. In other words total non-solar electricity generation would go down, even with increased demand to run heat pumps, while natural gas currently used to heat buildings would be available for electricity generation. We could completely replace coal based electricity generation with natural gas, and have some natural gas left over.

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Solar Links

Solar Power replaces coal – cost David Roberts, staff writer, 1/22/07 (“Vinod Khosla's forecast for 2007: Trends and outlook” Gristmill, < http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/1/22/13054/5411> ) On the technology side, we will see a horse race between clean coal, solar thermal (not photovoltaic), and wind for central utilitygrade power generation. I would personally handicap this in favor of solar thermal power because it can be stored easily as heat and is half the cost of solar photovoltaic and is dispatchable by the utility when it is needed, unlike wind power which must be used when the wind blows. Heat is much cheaper to store than electricity and that gives solar thermal technologies (often called CSP for concentrated solar power) a big leg up over wind and photovoltaic. Contrary to popular belief, I suspect we will find that clean coal plants (often called IGCC plants with carbon capture and sequestration) will prove to be too unreliable and the cost of gasification of coal (the G in IGCC), the separation of carbon dioxide from the waste gases, and compression too high. Liquefaction, handling, and eventually underground storage in large reservoirs will be so expensive that it is likely that solar thermal technologies will win the cost race. The financial risk of building a fifty year lifetime coal plant will become much more visible in 2007, and utilities that are doing it will see their stock suffer as investors recognize this risk fully! You have got to be crazy to build a fifty year asset with the escalating risk of environmental regulations and the certainty of carbon pricing at some point which will triple the effective price of coal. It will be much like all the gas plants built in the last decade that are already uneconomic. Besides, all the renewable portfolio standards (RPS) will make it where you can't produce coal-based electricity and sell it. Already California has a law requiring 33% of the power be renewable by 2020! The eastern states have their own renewable goals. The RPS standards are spreading like wildfire.

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Solar Links

Solar Power replaces dependency on coal Sarah Lozanova, staff writer, 3/27/08 (“Solar Thermal Electricity: Can it Replace Coal, Gas, and Oil?” Clean Technica < http://cleantechnica.com/2008/03/27/solar-thermal-electricity-can-it-replace-coal-gas-and-oil/> ) One of the most common arguments against large-scale use of renewable energy is that it cannot produce a steady, reliable stream of energy, day and night. Ausra Inc. does not agree. They believe that solar thermal technology can supply over 90% of grid power, while reducing carbon emissions. “The U.S. could nearly eliminate our dependence on coal, oil and gas for electricity and transportation, drastically slashing global warming pollution without increasing costs for energy,” said David Mills, chief scientific officer and founder of Ausra. You may be wondering, how will we have electricity at night or during cloudy weather? Will we use large banks of batteries or burn candles? The ability to utilize solar thermal technology after the sun sets is made possible by a storage system that is up to 93% efficient, according to Ausra’s executive vice president John O’Donnell. High efficiency is achieved because solar thermal plants do not need to convert energy to another form in order to store it and do not rely on battery technology. Flat moving recflectors or paolic mirrors focus solar energy to generate heat. This heat generates steam that turns turbines, thus generating an electric current. If you want to generate electricity-at, say, 3 am-heat from the sun can be stored for later use. This gives solar thermal technology the ability to not just produce peak power, but also generate base load electricity. Peak Power: The First Wave of Solar Thermal Plants The maximum amount of electricity demand on the power grid occurs during weekday afternoons and evenings in the summer months in most regions of the United States. This is largely caused by air conditioning loads, which gobble up electricity. Because the electric grid needs to be able to handle these peak loads, capacity is built to specifically handle these loads. Natural gas and oil typically comes to the rescue to produce this electricity. Although these plants are expensive to operate, they are cheaper to construct than most of the alternatives. They are fast to start, producing power in 30 minutes or less. Additional power plants are constructed just to generate electricity for the times when it is needed most. This causes peak electricity to be more expensive. A kilowatt hour of electricity at 3 pm and 3 am does not come with the same price tag to the utility company. “Adding solar plants that reliably generate until 10 pm displaces the highest cost alternative power,” said John O’Donnell. “That is the first wave of solar thermal plants. The daily and seasonal variation in grid load in the United States matches solar availability.” Base Load: Replacing Coal Power Base load is the minimum amount of electricity demand placed on the power grid over a 24 hour period. Coal and nuclear plants commonly supply this energy. These plants can take hours or even days to heat up to operating temperatures and are run more continuously than peak power plants. Due largely to the lower cost of fuel, these plants can produce electricity at a lower cost. If a carbon tax is implemented in the future, this will increase the cost of electricity generated from coal. Generating electricity around the clock with solar thermal technology relies on storage systems that run turbines long after the sun sets. “Ausra has a very active energy storage R & D group and we will be prototyping a couple of systems this year here in the US,” said John O’Donnell. Solar Energy Storage This is not a new technology, having been used for plastic manufacturing and petroleum production for a long time. Solar thermal plants have a cost advantage compared to photovoltaic technology because energy can be stored as heat without being converted to another form or relying on batteries.

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Nuclear Power Links

Nuclear power causes shift away from coal – key to railroad industry Richard Freeman is the Herbert Ascherman Chair in Economics at Harvard, “Rebuilding U.S. Rail System Is Top Priority,” 9/6/2002, http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2934rail_infra.html Over the last 30 years, the railroads have become radically dependent on transporting coal. Many of the new improvements that rail companies have made, and the new locomotives they have bought, have been on the lines that come from Powder Basin, Wyoming, bringing low-sulfur coal to the East Coast. This raises a real question about American energy policy. While coal is a legitimate source for power generation, its use ultimately should be declining, were the United States serious about developing nuclear power, using high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (and eventually developing the higher energy-flux density fusion power). But instead, coal's use is dramatically increasing: In 1970, of all the goods originated by the rail industry, coal constituted 405 million tons, or 27% of the total; but by 2000, coal constituted 758 tons, or 44% of the total.

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Nuclear Power Links

Nuclear power will trade off with coal Miguel Llanos, MSNBC, 7/7/05, Hot Idea: Fight Warming with Nuclear Power, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8120563/ Mainstream environmentalists "treat nuclear as if it is a trade-off against conservation" — use less energy and nuclear won't be needed, he said. "But it's really a trade-off against burning coal," Brand said. By ramping up nuclear, he said, nations can phase out coal, which is the dirtiest fossil fuel and causes hundreds of premature deaths each year in the United States alone.

Nuclear is the biggest threat to coal Australian Labor Party, 10/31/07, Labor Committed to Coal- Howard Committed to Nuclear, http://www.alp.org.au/media/1007/mseng310.php The biggest threat to the coal industry is the Howard Government’s plans for twenty five nuclear reactors across Australia. In contrast with its reluctance to support the future of the coal industry the Howard Government has been eager to push for the construction of twenty five nuclear reactors across the country. These reactors would potentially replace existing and future coal fired power stations.

Nuclear Power replaces coal –perceived as being more efficient EIA 3/5/03 (“Nuclear Power: 12 percent of America’s Generating Capacity, 20 percent of the Electricity” Energy Information Agency, < http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/analysis/nuclearpower.html> ) A number of notes should be made on this chart. The first of these is that the data gather all steam-based fossil fuel energy together. Fuel costs are lower for steam-based power for coal than for oil or gas. Thus, coal-based power has only a slightly higher U.S. average production cost than does nuclear. The costs are so close that, while nuclear costs average lower than coal, there is a good deal of overlap when regions of the country or individual reactors are considered. Nuclear power does, however, have an advantage in day-to-day operations in its low marginal costs. Day-to-day marginal costs are primarily fuel costs. A disproportionate part of nuclear power operating costs come from operations and maintenance costs that do not vary much with output. Because nuclear power’s marginal costs are lower than coal’s marginal costs, nuclear power plants tend to use their full output capacity before coal plants. This gives nuclear power an advantage in base load operations and results in a higher capacity factor.

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Nuclear Power Links

Nuclear Power shafts coal – it’s the best cost alternative EIA 9/25/03 (“Nuclear Power and the Environment” Energy Information Agency, ) Views on the suitability of nuclear power for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, particulates, and metals are highly charged. There is no question that producing an increased share of electric power using nuclear fuels in lieu of fossil fuels will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Substantial replacement of fossil fuels would result in substantial declines in acid gas emissions and if coal is replaced, particulate and solid waste production. Such changes would increase the volume of nuclear spent fuels that must be disposed. Many of the same reductions in emissions might also be obtained by switching electricity production from coal to natural gas or to lower sulfur coal. Emission control technologies are also an alternative. Because natural gas-based power production produces many of the same emissions as coal-based power production, a greater volume of replaced generation capacity would be required replacing coal-based power using natural gas than would be required using nuclear power. Because natural gas-based power involves different proportions of particular emission than coal-based power, reductions in sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate production would be more substantial than reductions in carbon emissions, though carbon emissions would also decline. Sulfur dioxide emissions across the board could be reduced substantially by choosing lower sulfur versions of a specific fuel. Emissions control devices and improved operating procedures are available that can reduce the output and disposal of specific emissions from a fuel. These conclusions regarding fossil fuels and emissions abstract from the very substantial issue of the availability of specific fossil fuels and on the impact of increased consumption on their prices. The suitability of nuclear power as an alternative method of reducing power emissions thus turns on three issues: 1) What level of emissions reductions is desired, 2) What are the costs of obtaining the emissions reductions by using nuclear power when compared to other methods, 3) Do any costs involved in switching to nuclear power (such as spent fuel disposal) offset any environmental gains from the displaced emissions. Within this context, if nuclear power is substantially more expensive than the alternative fossil fuel-based power then the alternative methods of emissions reductions will be more attractive than nuclear power. If nuclear power were to prove to be less expensive to build and operate than fossil fuel-based power, any environmental arguments for nuclear power would not be a diminished factor in economic decisions. Emissions reduction arguments in favor of nuclear power carry their greatest weight when nuclear power approached the cost of alternative fossil fuels and when nuclear power presented the least cost alternative for obtaining the emissions control gains. Emissions from fossil fuels vary by fuel. Environmental reasons for replacing coal-fired power with nuclear power can cover the entire stack gas, particulate, and solid waste spectrum. Replacing natural gas-fired power generation with nuclear for environmental reasons depends more substantially on greenhouse gas emissions targets. All of these evaluations would be made within the context of non-economic values placed on nuclear power and its “emissions”.

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Nuclear Power Links

Increases in Nuclear power shafts coal usage – IAEA agrees Kari Livingston, writer for the Associated Content, 10/24/07 (“Nuclear Power Making Inroads against Coal, Oil” Associated Content < http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/425825/nuclear_power_making_inroads_against.html?page=2&cat=15> ) The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency has documented 435 operating nuclear reactors world wide, providing hope that nuclear power will eventually replace coal and oil based energy systems. With 103 nuclear reactors, the United States has the most reactors. France follows the US with 59 reactors, Japan's 55 reactors and the Russian Federation's 31 reactors rounding out the top. In addition to the currently operating nuclear reactors, there are 29 under construction internationally. Currently, there are nuclear expansion programs in Ukraine, Bulgaria, Finland and France. The IAEA reports that the average growth of nuclear power is expected to jump 2.5 per cent, or 679 gigawatts, by 2030. Seventy-eight per cent of electricity in France, who plans to begin construction on a new plant later this year, is provided by nuclear reactors, but only two per cent of China's electric power is supplied through nuclear reactors. The report did point out that China's energy needs are rapidly expanding and that the country is exploring all energy sources,including nuclear power. There are four nuclear reactors under construction in China, but because of the country's massive population growth, that will still only provide four per cent of China's electric power. Other countries planning significant growth include Japan and South Korea, which already gets 39 per cent of its power from nuclear. Most of the current nuclear power construction is in Asia. India gets only 3 per cent of its power from nuclear reactors, but 25 per cent of the current nuclear construction is in the country. India has set a goal of 10 per cent of electricity from nuclear by 2022 and 26 percent by 2052. The United States gets 19 per cent of its electricity from nuclear, and most of its development plans have centered around increasing capacity at pre-existing nuclear facilities, but there are four Early Site Permit applications under review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The United Kingdom also uses a significant amount of nuclear power, but many of the country's 19 nuclear reactors are aging facilities with uncertain futures. However, the government has issued a White Paper reinforcing its position that the advantages greatly outweigh the disadvantages of nuclear power. Nuclear power use has remained largely stable since jumping from one per cent in 1960 to 16 per cent in 1986. While the global use of electricity continues to rise, only 15 per cent of total electricity is generated through nuclear reactors.

Nuclear Power replaces coal usage Mamdouh G. Salameh, Corresponding Author Oil Market Consultancy Service, 6/03 (“Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century?” Applied Energy Volume 75, Issues 1-2, Science Direct, ) Though not strictly renewable, nuclear energy is one of the cleanest energy-sources. It has the ability to generate enormous energy from a small volume of fuel. One metric ton of nuclear fuel is estimated to produce the energy equivalent of 2–3 million tons of fossil fuels [22]. Nuclear power produces no atmospheric pollution. Nevertheless, the public perception of nuclear power is still negative. Hanging over it is the question of radioactive waste and how to dispose of it safely. In 2000, nuclear power contributed 7% to world energy supplies [23]. After peaking around 2010, production of nuclear power is projected to decline to 5% of the global primary energy mix by 2020. Nuclear power must, however, expand before 2020 to help supply the increasing world demand for electricity. Modular, fail-safe, economically competitive nuclear power plants with zero emissions, can be built to replace coalfired power plants. Spent nuclear fuel can be reprocessed to generate a new fuel and reduce waste [24. Edwards JD. Twenty-first century energy: transition from fossil fuels to renewable, non-polluting energy sources. Summit on US Energy Policy, Washington (DC) 23 April 2001. p. 4.24].

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Nuclear power replaces coal – it’s economically more competitive Michael Totty, Staff Writer, 6/30/08 (“The Case For and Against Nuclear Power” Wall Street Journal – Energy, < http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121432182593500119.html> ) So, what's the case against nuclear power? It boils down to two things: economics and safety. Neither holds up to scrutiny. First, economics. Critics argue that the high cost of building and financing a new plant makes nuclear power uneconomical when compared with other sources of power. But that's misleading on a number of levels. One reason it's so expensive at this point is that no new plant has been started in the U.S. since the last one to begin construction in 1977. Lenders -- uncertain how long any new plant would take because of political and regulatory delays -- are wary of financing the first new ones. So financing costs are unusually high. As we build more, the timing will be more predictable, and financing costs will no doubt come down as lenders become more comfortable. Loan guarantees and other federal incentives are needed to get us over this hump. They are not permanent subsidies for uneconomical ventures. Instead, they're limited to the first half dozen of plants as a way to reassure investors that regulatory delays won't needlessly hold up construction. It's important to remember that although nuclear energy has been around a while, it's hardly a "mature" industry, as some critics say. Because of the lack of new plants in so many years, nuclear in many ways is more like an emerging technology, and so subsidies make sense to get it going. It's also true that a shortage of parts and skills is raising the cost of new plants. But if we start building more plants, the number of companies supplying parts will increase to meet the demand, lowering the price. Most important, nuclear power appears economically uncompetitive primarily because the price of "cheaper" fossil fuels, mainly coal, don't reflect the high cost that carbon emissions pose for the environment. Add those costs, and suddenly, nuclear power will look like a bargain. That's likely to happen soon. Governments are expected to assign a cost to greenhouse gases, through either a direct tax (based on the carbon content of a fuel) or a so-called cap-and-trade system, which would set a limit on emissions while allowing companies whose discharges are lower than the cap to sell or trade credits to companies whose pollution exceeds the cap. Suddenly, big carbon polluters like coal-produced electricity are going to look a lot more expensive compared with low-carbon sources -- in particular, nuclear, wind and hydropower. It's estimated that a carbon "price" of between $25 and $50 a ton makes nuclear power economically competitive with coal. That should be enough to ease investor concerns about utilities that build new nuclear plants. Even without a carbon tax, rising natural-gas prices are beginning to make nuclear power more competitive. That's true even in some deregulated markets, such as Texas. NRG Energy Inc., based in Princeton, N.J., has filed an application to build a reactor adjacent to an existing plant in Texas. Though it's too early to know how much the plant will eventually cost -- or even if it ultimately will get built -- high natural-gas prices alone are enough to justify construction, according to NRG.

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Railroads Profitable Now – Coal

Need for coal transportation leads to successful railroad businesses now Thestockadvisors.com, 07/14/08, http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2420/9/ "Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has been in Japan covering the G8 Summit. Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP). "My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth. "It’s no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating. "In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks. "Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company’s network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries. "Union Pacific’s energy segment is its largest by revenue; it accounts for just shy of 20% of the company’s business. Coal transport from a region of the West known as the Powder River Basin comprises the majority of Union Pacific’s energy transport business. "Strong demand for coal transport has made this segment a real bright spot for the railroad in recent years. Better still, UnionPacific still transports coal under contracts signed years ago at lower freight rates. As these contracts expire, Union Pacific should see strong pricing gains as it signs new deals.

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Railroad doing well now – market forces favor rail PR Newswire, 7/8/08, “Greenbrier Companies Reports Third Quarter Results”, http://sev.prnewswire.com/transportation-truckingrailroad/20080708/AQTU05608072008-1.html Furman concluded, "The long-term outlook for the rail industry remains bright, as market forces continue to favor rail. In the nearer term, we expect that our marine, refurbishment & parts, and leasing & services businesses will continue with their strong performance, while new railcar manufacturing will likely remain soft, due to macroeconomic forces. Greenbrier remains committed to delivering value to shareholders through its integrated business model, which builds on the Company's core strengths of railcar and marine manufacturing and engineering, while providing diversification and reduced risk through various business cycles and economic conditions. Our near term operating focus is to integrate recent acquisitions, ensure the smooth start up of our tank car production line at GIMSA, and to continue to realize revenue and cost synergies from our integrated model."

Railroads revenue increasing US Government Accountability Office, “Freight Railroads: Updated Information on Rates and Other Industry Trends,” Esupplement, August 15, 2007 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07291r.pdf In 2005, industry rail rates increased 7 percent over their 2004 levels, the largest annual increase over the past 20 years, outpacing the rate of inflation for only the second time in 20 years. Rates also increased for the commodities we reviewed— including such commodities as coal and grain. Freight railroad companies continued a 20-year trend of shifting other costs to shippers, including railcar ownership. Revenues railroads reported as miscellaneous revenue—a category that includes fuel surcharges—nearly tripled from $633 million 4 in 2004 to $1.7 billion in 2005. While it remains difficult to precisely determine how many shippers are captive to a single Class I railroad because available proxy measures can overstate or understate captivity, 2005 data indicate that potentially captive traffic continued to drop. At the same time, traffic traveling at rates significantly above the threshold for rate relief increased in 2005.

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Railroads Profitable Now

The railroad industry boom is fueled by growing global trade and rising fuel costs for trucks Frank Ahrens, staff writer for the Washington Post, 4/21/08, “A Switch on the Tracks: Railroads Roar Ahead, The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/04/20/ST2008042002409.html When Bob Billingsley hired on with Norfolk Southern railway 31 years ago, he was a rookie on work crews that were closing unused lines as the nation's economy turned its back on the railroads. Now he's in charge of raising the roof of a Norfolk Southern tunnel in southwestern Virginia to clear headroom for the double-stacked container cars that have become the symbol of the industry's sudden surge thanks to a confluence of powerful global factors. "For years, we were looking for ways to cut costs to increase profits," said Billingsley, as a train rumbled by. "Now, we're building business to increase profits." The freight railway industry is enjoying its biggest building boom in nearly a century, a turnaround as abrupt as it is ambitious. It is largely fueled by growing global trade and rising fuel costs for 18-wheelers. In 2002, the major railroads laid off 4,700 workers; in 2006, they hired more than 5,000. Profit has doubled industry-wide since 2003, and stock prices have soared. The value of the largest railroad, the Union Pacific, has tripled since 2001. This year alone, the railroads will spend nearly $10 billion to add track, build switchyards and terminals, and open tunnels to handle the coming flood of traffic. Freight rail tonnage will rise nearly 90 percent by 2035, according to the Transportation Department. In the 1970s, tight federal regulation, cheap truck fuel and a wide-open interstate highway system conspired to cripple the railroad industry, driving many lines into bankruptcy. The nation's 300,000 miles of rails became a web of slow-moving, poorly maintained lines, so dilapidated in spots that tracks would give way under standing trains. The Staggers Rail Act of 1980 largely deregulated the industry, leading to a wave of consolidation. More than 40 major lines condensed into the seven that remain, running on 162,000 miles of track. But the changing global market has fueled prosperity -- and the need to add track for the first time in 80 years. Soaring diesel prices and a driver shortage have pushed freight from 18-wheelers back onto the rails. At the same time, China's unquenchable appetite for coal and the escalating U.S. demand for Chinese goods, means more U.S. rail traffic is heading to ports in the Northwest, on its way to and from the Far East. Coal still accounts for the most tonnage hauled by U.S. railroads, but it is the ocean-crossing shipping container -- carrying autos, toys, furniture and nearly every product a consumer will buy -- that has lit a rocket under the railroad industry. Passenger rail traffic is also increasing; 2007 was Amtrak's fifth consecutive year of increased ridership, up 6 percent from 2006. The zeitgeist has even dropped a "green" gift in the industry's lap. A train can haul a ton of freight 423 miles on one gallon of diesel fuel, about a 3-to-1 fuel efficiency advantage over 18-wheelers, and the railroad industry is increasingly touting itself as an eco-friendly alternative. Trucking firms also use the rail lines; UPS is the railroad industry's biggest customer. Rail traffic, revenue and profit began to soar in 2002-03 and seem largely immune to the economic downturn. Last Tuesday, for instance, CSX reported a record first-quarter profit. On Friday, the stock price of Western rail giant Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) hit an all-time high. At the industry's nadir in the 1970s, the average annual rate of return on investment for a railroad company was 1.2 percent. By 2006, that number was 10.2 percent. And even though the economic slump has reduced key traffic about 4 percent this year compared with last, it has not slowed the railroads' urgent tracklaying. Capital expenditures this year are up, as the railroads think the downturn is temporary, said the industry's trade group, the Association of American Railroads.

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Railroad industry booming – Illinois proves The Herald News, 7/18/08, “Will, Kendall among tops in job growth”, http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/heraldnews/business/1063001,jo18_jobs_web.article On the heels of Naperville, Bolingbrook and Orland Park honored as Top 100 towns by Money Magazine, the magazine also lists Will and Kendall counties among the top 25 counties in the nation in terms of job growth since 2000.The magazine ranked Kendall County Number 2 with job growth of 63.69 percent from 2000 to 2007 and had this to say:“A population boom in this rural area just outside of Chicago has meant boom times for businesses. Kendall County’s employment growth reflects a healthy restaurant trade, gains in construction and an influx of malls, shopping centers and big-box stores.“The population spike has meant a major infrastructure boost, including highway improvements and a $30 million courthouse expansion. The county is considering extending the commuter rail line from Chicago, which could fuel even more growth. Top employers include home-improvement chain Menard, heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar and energy provider ANR Pipeline.”Will County was ranked 21 on the list with a 35.9 percent job growth during that time. The writers had this to say:“As gas prices continue to reach historic highs, the railroad industry is booming again, and Will County is reaping the benefits. After doubling the amount of industrial space available in the county, the shipping hub has become a central staging ground for importing and exporting, as goods change hands at the Burlington Northern Logistics Park.“And with at least three new shopping centers, a new Ikea opening and an intermodal rail and industrial park planned, the county expects to add more jobs overall than in any other Illinois area in the next few decades.”

Railroad profits increasing Cargonews Asia, “US railroad on the up and up” 7/16/2008 http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured/article.aspx?id=20&article=16501 US railroad company CSX Corporation recorded higher second-quarter net profit as strong pricing offset a three percent decline in freight volumes, Reuters reports. Net income rose to US$385 million, or 93 cents a share, from $324 million, or 71 cents a share, a year earlier.

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Coal Key to Railroad Profits

Railroads dependent on interest from Energy Department who only cares about getting their coal shipped Congressional Budget Office, “Freight Rail Transportation: Long-Term Issues,” Congressional Budget Office Paper, January 2006, http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7021/01-17-Rail.pdf Coal has long been the dominant commodity carried by rail in the United States. In 2004, it accounted for about 43 percent of the tons carried (see Figure3) and about 20 percent of revenues of Class I railroads.28 Coal traffic has trended upward over the past 10 years (see Figure 4 on page8). The principal sources of railroad growth over the past de- cade have been coal and intermodal (“miscellaneous mixed”) shipments.29 Coal traffic (as measured in tons) rose about 37 percent from 1994 to 2003; in terms of revenue, however, it increased just 12 percent.30 Inter- modal shipments, which tend to be relatively high in value and can command higher rates, grew about 33 per- cent in tonnage and 46 percent in revenues from 1994 to 2003.31 Projections of Growth in Demand for Rail Transportation Rail traffic is projected to continue to increase as the economy grows. The Department of Energy’s Energy In- formation Administration (EIA) projects rail growth of 1.7 percent annually, rising from about 1.6 trillion ton- miles in 2004 to nearly 2.4 trillion ton-miles in 2030.32 The Energy Department’s interest in rail transportation derives primarily from its interest in the production and consumption of coal. The EIA projects an increase in the number of tons of coal consumed in the United States of about 62 percent between 2004 and 2030.33 About 92 percent of coal consumption in 2004 was for the production of electricity.34 The EIA projects Western coal production to increase to nearly 1.1 billion tons in 2030 from 627 million tons in 2004.35 Most of that coal will have to be transported over distances for which trucking costs would be prohibitive and where water transporta- tion is unavailable, so railroads will probably be called upon to fill the need for coal transportation.

Coal for electricity is key to rail revenue Association of American Railroads “Overview of America’s Freight Railroads,” May 2008 http://www.aar.org/PubCommon/Documents/AboutTheIndustry/Overview.pdf America’s freight railroads operate in a highly-competitive marketplace. To compete effectively against each other and against other transportation providers, railroads must offer high-quality service at competitive rates. Railroads account for 41 percent of freight ton-miles, more than any other mode of transportation. The rail ton-mile share has been trending upward over the past 15 years, after remaining flat or falling for decades. In part due to their superior cost effectiveness, railroads generate less than 10 percent of intercity freight revenues. Railroads’ revenue share has been falling for decades, a reflection of the intensity of the competition they face and of the large rate reductions railroads have passed through to their customers over the years. Coal is the most important single commodity carried by U.S. railroads. In 2007, coal accounted for 44 percent of rail tonnage and 21 percent of rail revenue. The vast majority of coal is used to generate electricity. Coal accounts for around half of U.S. electricity generation, and railroads handle more than two-thirds of all U.S. coal shipments.

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Coal Key to Railroad Profits

Coal is 75% of railroad freight Rob Cameron, BBC News writer, Wyoming, 29 August 2006, “Coal keeps U.S. economy burning”, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5295922.stm Cheap it is, no doubt about that. Cheaper than natural gas, which is why coal is used to generate 52% of America's electricity.It is also plentiful. The United States contains the largest coal reserves in the world, enough to last for 250 years or more. But the energy utilities that burn the coal take issue with the reliability. They complain that supplies are not meeting demand, leaving them low on reserves and Americans potentially exposed to power shortages. In a country where most homes, offices and restaurants are heavily air-conditioned, this is clearly a problem. So who is at fault? Mile-long trains. The railroads - in this case US's largest, Union Pacific - play a crucial role in the coal supply chain. Union Pacific moves huge quantities of coal from the Powder River Basin to the power stations of the east. The task is approached with steely determination by men and women who clearly take deep pride in their jobs. Locomotives move huge quantities of coal to US power stations "It's the 1,000lb gorilla that you have to watch day in day out," says Cameron Scott, Union Pacific's general superintendent of railway operations, in North Platte, Nebraska - a crucial transport hub for US rail freight. "The coal trains represent about 75% of everything that runs in and out of this yard." And coal trains are no ordinary trains. They typically consist of up to 135 cars - making them about a mile and half long. Getting the coal to its destination is therefore a massive logistical challenge. Union Pacific's space-age Harriman Dispatching Center, in Omaha, uses satellite-based GPS and other state-of-the-art technology to keep track of its trains every minute of the day. Some, however, are beginning to question the wisdom of such heavy reliance on coal.

Coal is the most important commodity carried by rail National Atlas.gov, 07/04, http://www.nationalatlas.gov/articles/transportation/a_freightrr.html Measured in ton-miles (the movement of one ton of freight one mile), railroads move 42 percent of intercity freight, more than any other mode of transportation. The rail share of intercity ton-miles has been trending slightly upward over the past 10 to 15 years, after falling steadily for decades. In part because railroads' rates are so low compared to their competitors, their 42 percent of ton-mile traffic generates less than 10 percent of intercity freight revenues. Railroads' share of intercity freight revenue has been trending down for decades, a reflection of the intensity of the competition for intercity freight transportation in the United States and of the significant rate reductions railroads have passed through to their customers. Coal is the most important single commodity carried by rail. In 2002, it accounted for 44 percent of tonnage and 21 percent of revenue for Class I railroads. The vast majority of coal in the United States is used to generate electricity at coal-fired power plants. Coal accounts for half of all U.S. electricity generation, far more than any other fuel source, and railroads handle approximately two-thirds of all U.S. coal shipments. Other major commodities carried by rail include chemicals, including massive amounts of industrial chemicals, plastic resins, and fertilizers; grain and other agricultural products; non- metallic minerals such as phosphate rock, sand, and crushed stone and gravel; food and food products; steel and other primary metal products; forest products, including lumber, paper, and pulp; motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts; and waste and scrap materials, including scrap iron and scrap paper.

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Coal Demand Key to Railroad Infrastructure

Coal profits key to infrastructure investments – forty percent of revenue is invested Association of American Railroads, 10/07, http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/294.ashx DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory reports that, as of May 2007, some 151 coal-fired generating plants in dozens of states representing 90 gigawatts have been announced or are in development. If ultimately built, this new generation would increase annual U.S. coal requirements by several hundred million tons. Railroad’s past performance strongly suggests that they will be able to handle this increased demand, as long as the necessary investments in their networks are made. Because railroading is a network business, improvements or investments in one location can affect rail traffic at distant points. Therefore, even investments made on rail lines that do not carry substantial amounts of coal can positively impact railroads’ coal operations. It takes an enormous amount of money to run a freight rail system. The rail industry is near the top among all U.S. industries in terms of capital intensity. In fact, from 1996-2005 (the most recent year for which data are available) the average U.S. manufacturer spent 3.4 percent of revenue on capital expenditures. The comparable figure for U.S. freight railroads was 17.2 percent, or more than five times higher. Similarly, in 2006 railroad net investment in plant and equipment per employee was $620,000---nearly eight times the average for all U.S. manufacturing ($84,000). When maintenance expenses are included, rail investments rise substantially. Including capital and maintenance spending, from 1980 through 2006 Class 1 railroads invested more than $375 billion (and short lines spent additional billions) to maintain and improve their infrastructure and equipment---with most of this spending directly or indirectly benefiting coal. After accounting for depreciation freight railroads typically spend $16 billion to $18 billion per year---equal, on average, to more than 40 cents out of every revenue dollar---to provide the high quality assets they need to operate safely and efficiently. Moreover, rail capital spending, which was already enormous, is expected to rise to around $9.2 billion in 2007, up from around $5.7 billion just five years earlier. This huge increase demonstrates the diligence with which railroads are responding to the capacity and service issues and positioning themselves to handle rail shippers needs in the future. Looking ahead, billions of dollars of rail investments will be directed specifically at coal, including new locomotives and train sets; double-, triple-, and even quadrupletracking heavily-used coal routes; bypasses, sidings, and terminals; and thousands of new employees. These investments will enhance coal-carrying capacity and the fluidity of rail operations.

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Coal Demand Key to Railroad Infrastructure

Coal-fired electricity is key to railroad infrastructure investments Jeremy F. Plant, The Public Manager, Fall 2005, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0HTO/is_3_34/ai_n25120956/pg_7?tag=artBody;col1 Rails transport coal for electric production and industrial use, as well as export to other nations. Historically, coal has been one of the most important cargoes for the rail industry, with inland waterways the only major modal competitor. Since the 1980s, the locus of coal mining and rail operations has shifted from traditional mining centers in the East to the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming, where the two major western U.S. rail systems, BNSF and Union Pacific, have invested heavily in new rail infrastructure to meet growing demand, mostly from the electric utility industry.

Coal key to railroad profitability and infrastructure Tom Murray, Railroad Consultant and Columnist for TRAINS magazine, 07/07/06, http://www.trains.com/trn/default.aspx?c=a&id=539 As the U.S. economy has grown, it has kept on producing the kinds of things that railroads typically haul: coal, grain, chemicals, forest products, and other commodities that have a high ratio of weight to value. Because the population and the economy have grown in absolute terms, the need for these commodities has continued to increase, which has allowed the railroads to expand their traffic base. However, this growth has not kept pace with rest of the economy. And because railroads haul the lowest-value commodities, they have limited ability to improve their profitability by charging their customers higher prices. The importance of value versus weight as an economic factor is one of the themes that Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, kept returning to. He referred to this phenomenon as "the displacement of physical weight of output with concepts." More people are doing things that involve ideas (like writing computer programs) and a smaller percentage of the work force is involved in producing and using heavy, bulk materials. Those heavy commodities are losing out to smaller, lighter goods. Mr. Greenspan cited copper as an example. Much of the copper formerly used in electrical circuits has been displaced by electronic components that are not only smaller and lighter but also enable machinery to run at a much higher level of efficiency. Copper, of course, was once an important commodity for the railroads. In other words, the railroad industry's major sources of revenue represent a declining share of the economic pie. More significantly, as heavy commodities (like steel) are replaced by lighter ones (like aluminum), the importance of inventory and logistics costs in the final value of products is greater than it was in the past. Railroads as they operate today are well suited to commodities that can stand significant variability in delivery schedules. Those, by definition, are low-value products. Motor carriers (in combination with air and express companies) have captured virtually 100 percent of the market for service-sensitive, highvalue products. The key question for the rail investor is whether there is hope for the industry in light of its shrinking role in the North American economy, and declining status in the eyes of the investment community. My view is that railroads are simply too important to fail. By that, I don't mean that the government will have to step in to save the railroads again, as it did with Penn Central and the other northeast bankrupts. Instead, I think that the boards of directors of one or more major railroads will realize that they have a responsibility to bring about dramatic change. In the 1990's, railroads did a great job of building the physical infrastructure to take them into the 21st century. If they can do an equally good job of matching their services to the needs of the 21st century economy, rail investors will really have something to celebrate.

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Profits Key to Railroad Infrastructure

Revenue key to safety US Government Accountability Office, “Performance and Accountability: Transportation Challenges Facing Congress and the Department of Transportation,” GAO Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies; Committee on Appropriations; House of Representatives, March 6, 2007. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07545t.pdf Financing mechanisms for the nation’s transportation system are under stress. Our nation’s transportation infrastructure is threatened by increasing demand for transportation services, and revenue from traditional funding mechanisms for the nation’s highway and aviation systems may be unable to keep pace at current tax rates. In addition, freight traffic is projected to grow substantially, but current planning and financing mechanisms impede public strategies to address needs. Our nation’s mobility is threatened because the nation’s infrastructure is under great strain. Congestion across modes (e.g., aviation, highways, and rail) is expected to worsen. However, funding by mode and the lack of performance-related goals result in little assurance that funds are being channeled to the most critical mobility concerns and that intermodal approaches can be integrated into the transportation system. Improvements in transportation safety are needed to reduce the number of deaths and injuries from transportation accidents—about 95 percent of which occur on our nation’s roads. Increases in congestion across modes as a result of population and economic growth could cause deterioration in transportation safety despite departmental and state efforts to reduce accidents. The transition from the current air traffic control system to a broader and modernized system will be one of the department’s most complex undertakings. In previous years, FAA has faced systemic management and acquisition problems that led us to designate its air traffic control modernization program as high risk. While the agency has made significant progress in recent years, a key challenge going forward will be to institutionalize these improvements and to continually improve. In addition, the department and the transportation sector face persistent human capital challenges due to an impending shortage of skilled people to meet changing transportation needs. Furthermore, despite recent improvements in financial management, the department received a qualified opinion on its 2006 financial statements. Finally, the department is working to clarify its role in transportation security and emergency preparedness and response.

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Infrastructure Key to Solve Derailment

Poor tracks lead to accidents ESTHER D'AMICO, 01/14/08, Chemical Week, lexis Meanwhile, congestion and high fuel costs and surcharges remain significant transportation concerns, shippers say. Congestion and poor transport infrastructure, including old and neglected highways and tracks, are expected to worsen as freight volumes rise. Infrastructure problems, in particular, have been blamed for many of the accidents and injuries in the last year. An undetected break on track has been cited as the cause of an explosion last March when a CSX train carrying liquid propane derailed and near Oneida, NY About 200 residents were evacuated due to the blast. The track was already broken when the train passed over it, FRA says. The agency conducted a 23-state inspection of CSX tracks and found safety violations, which resulted in CSX paying $ 350,000 in fines, FRA says. The incident also drew the attention of some lawmakers, including Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., NY), who testified before a Senate panel on rail safety last year about "the inadequacy of the current system of monitoring and managing safety issues" on the railroads. She also called for further inspections of major railroads and for increased FRA oversight and enforcement power.

Major capital investments prevent derailment – empirically proven Christopher P.L. Barkan, Associate Professor and Director of the Railroad Engineering Program at the University of Illinois, and C. Tyler Dick, Graduate research assistant in Railroad Engineering at the University of Illinois, 2003, “Analysis of railroad derailment factors affecting hazardous materials transportation risk”, http://www.ltrc.lsu.edu/TRB_82/TRB2003-002429.pdf The US railroad mainline accident rate has declined by over 75% since 1980 (Figure 1) and the hazardous materials accident-caused release rate has declined by nearly 90% (1,2,3). This improvement is the result of major capital investments in infrastructure and equipment, improved safety designs of tank cars (4), employee training efforts, and the development and implementation of new technology (5). Most of this improvement in safety took place in the 1980s, and although the downward trend in mainline accident rate continued through the 1990s, it declined at a lower rate and has leveled off in recent years (Figure 1). The occurrence of major accident-caused hazardous materials releases has declined to such an extent that identification and implementation of further safety improvements is much more challenging because there is less empirical information on which causes are contributing the greatest risk.

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Derailment Impact – Nuclear Terrorism

Derailment create a target for nuclear terrorist attack Kevin Kamps, Nuclear Information and Resource Service Office, 06/20/06, http://www.nirs.org/press/06-20-2006/1 Surrey Township, Michigan— Concerned citizen groups are raising questions about the nature of the radioactive wastes aboard a derailed train amidst conflicting press reports. The Associated Press first reported that the train, which derailed in the early morning hours of June 16 in Clare County, was hauling eight to ten railcars containing radioactive water used for cooling nuclear materials at Consumers Energy's Big Rock Point nuclear power plant in Charlevoix, Michigan. However, Consumers Energy spokesman Timothy Petrosky later told the Saginaw News that Big Rock no longer ships radioactive liquids, and its cargo aboard the derailed train consisted of radioactively contaminated concrete and soil. According to a spokesman from the State of Michigan Department of Environmental Quality's Waste and Hazardous Materials Division, the six rail cars carrying 42 "inter-modal" atomic waste containers from Big Rock are bound for a licensed radioactive waste dump in Clive, Utah. Clare County Sheriff's Department Emergency Services Division Sergeant William J. Larson told Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS) in a phone inquiry that tampering with the rails is suspected, and an investigation has been launched. "This raises serious concerns about the security of atomic waste shipments," said Kevin Kamps of NIRS. "High-level radioactive waste shipments from Big Rock that would travel this same rail route would be potentially catastrophic targets for sabotage or terrorist attack rolling through countless Michigan communities."

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Derailment Impact – Mobile Chernobyl/Dirty Bombs

Accidents turn trains into mobile Chernobyls, causing mass deaths from radiation Kevin Kamps, Nuclear Information and Resource Service Office, 06/20/06, http://www.nirs.org/press/0620-2006/1 According to workers at the factory who spoke on condition of anonymity, the derailment took place close to the rail spur leading into, and the shipping dock area of, the Renosol Corp. plant, manufacturer of polyurethane products for the auto industry. "We know that extremely hazardous materials, such as toluene diisocyanate, are present at the Renosol factory," said Kay Cumbow of Citizens for Alternatives to Chemical Contamination, headquartered in nearby Lake Township. "If the derailment had ignited a fire at the factory, could a toxic cloud have formed? What would be the health and safety consequences downwind?" Cumbow asked. "Previous derailments have occurred on this very same section of track," said Keegan. "Was this train traveling at high speed, which led to the derailment? Why were hazardous radioactive wastes being shipped in the dead of night to begin with? What emergency preparations are in place to deal with accidents involving radioactive wastes?" The Saginaw News also quoted railroad spokesman Jim Dunn as saying of the radioactive waste "[i]t's not dangerous at all." In response to a telephone inquiry from NIRS, Dunn stated that although the radioactive "crushed concrete" from Consumers Energy was placarded as hazardous, it only emitted a "minimum" of radiation. Clare County Sheriff's Sergeant William J. Larson told the Saginaw News that the rail cars containing the atomic wastes are "armorplated." "Such false assurances raise more questions than they answer," said Kamps of NIRS. "The only radioactive wastes that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires to be packaged in special containers during transport are the most radioactive and hazardous of atomic wastes. So if these train cars are 'armor-plated,' that makes it sound like these particular radioactive wastes from Consumers Energy are intensely radioactive." Kamps also pointed out that, according to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) documents, the very same Tuscola and Saginaw Bay Railway that experienced this atomic waste train derailment would also be used to ship eight massive rail carloads of high-level radioactive waste from Consumers Energy's Big Rock Point nuclear power plant to Nevada if the Yucca Mountain dumpsite ever opens there. Irradiated nuclear fuel from Consumers Energy's Big Rock Point nuclear power plant in Charlevoix, Michigan would travel the Tuscola and Saginaw Bay Railway through Boyne Falls, Kalkaska, Walton, Cadillac, Marion, Clare, Mount Pleasant, Alma, Ashley, Owosso and Durand before transferring to the "Grand Trunk Western" railway through Lansing, Battle Creek, and Schoolcraft. The rail shipments would then exit Michigan bound for Nevada if the Yucca dump ever opens. A copy of the DOE route map can be viewed at: http://www.ewg.org/reports_content/NuclearWaste/pdf/eis_j_IN-MI-OH.pdf. "Severe accidents or terrorist attacks can turn high-level radioactive waste shipments into Mobile Chernobyls or dirty bombs on wheels," said Kamps, referring to the 1986 Soviet nuclear catastrophe and radiological dispersal devices. "Release of just a fraction of such a cargo could unleash a radioactive catastrophe deadly to emergency responders and residents downwind."

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Mobile Chernobyl Causes Econ Collapse

A railroad nuclear accident would cause thousands of cancers and deaths and cost billions of dollars – the surrounding population would be exposed to the equivalent of one chest x-ray per hour Elizabeth Ridlington, spokesperson for Paryland PIRG and member of Maryland Public Interest Research Group, Timothy TelleenLawton, political analyst with Frontier Group, Johanna Neumann, legislative advocate for Maryland PIRG group, Maryland PIRG Foundation, Mar 2007, “The High Cost of Nuclear Power: Why Maryland Can’t Afford a New Reactor”, http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/cz/AW/czAWZsu0DUwXPz9kzBq61Q/MaryPIRG.NuclearPowerReport.March2007.pdf Low-level radioactive waste presents another problem. By the time that a third reactor begins operation at Calvert Cliffs, Maryland will no longer be allowed to send its low-level radioactive waste to Barnwell, South Carolina, the site of a regional dump for low-level waste. That low-level waste will have to remain in Maryland. The last major release of radioactive material from a commercial nuclear reactor in the U.S. was several decades ago, but there have been close calls since then. The worst nuclear reactor accident on U.S. soil occurred at the Three Mile Island (TMI) reactor in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on March 28, 1979. A partial meltdown of the reactor’s core led 140,000 people to evacu- ate from the area.47 The accident resulted from a combina- tion of human and mechanical error—a plant malfunction combined with operator override of automatic safety systems. Cleanup at the plant has cost approximately $1 billion.48 In addition, victims of the TMI accident have successfully sued the plant’s owner and the nuclear industry for at least $50 million.49 The full health consequences of the TMI accident are unknown. One study, con- ducted by researchers at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, suggests that the accident caused an increase in lungcancer and leukemia rates downwind of the Three Mile Island reactor compared to upwind.50 The Three Mile Island accident does not represent a worst-case scenario for the potential impact of a major nuclear accident. A 1982 study by the Sandia National Labo- ratories found that a serious core accident at a U.S. nuclear reactor could cause hundreds to thousands of deaths immediately.51 Estimates of early fatalities ranged from 700 to 100,000, depending on the size of the reactor and the proximity of large popula- tions (in 1982).52 A serious core accident at the two existing Calvert Cliffs reactors could cause 5,600 immediate deaths, 15,000 injuries and 23,000 deaths from cancer, assuming there are no more people living near the reactors than in 1970.53 The two existing units at Calvert Cliffs have not had a major incident that attracted public attention recently. The plant does have a history of violations, however. The NRC has levied fines for unsafe practices at the reactors. In 1996, the plant was fined $50,000 for problems with emergency equipment that had been identified in 1992 but had not been repaired four years later.54 The NRC issued a $176,000 fine in 1997 and a $55,000 fine in 1998 because person- nel at Calvert Cliffs had been careless with exposure to radiation.55 Other problems have led to warning notices but no fines. Problems have included malfunctioning water pumps and, in 2006, incorrect settings for a circuit breaker that allows an emergency diesel generator to function. The incorrect set- tings were the result of an error that occurred during installation of the emergency generator in 1996.56 In 2001, a sink hole formed outside the turbine room of the plant. By the time the hole was discovered, it had grown large enough that filling it required 40 tons of dirt.57 The sinkhole was caused by an un- derground drainage pipe that collapsed. The pipe carried groundwater away from the area under the plant and into the bay. Over the years, saltwater corroded the pipe, allowing dirt into the pipe where it was car- ried away from the site. Calvert Cliffs may be vulnerable to other unexpected natural disasters. Although Maryland is not known for its tornadoes, a category five tornado (the strongest cat- egory, with winds above 260 miles per hour) formed in Maryland in April 2002, and passed within two miles of the Calvert Cliffs facility.58 Meanwhile, Constellation has pared back staffing at the two existing units. In 2001, 1,400 people worked at the plants. However, to reduce costs, Constellation has eliminated 465 positions, cutting the workforce to 935 people.59 At the same time, the facility was generating record amounts of energy. Fewer staff increases the odds that personnel may be forced to work overtime or that there may not be as many staff available to handle an emergency. Calvert Cliffs is also vulnerable to a ter- rorist attack. Nuclear power plants make attractive potential targets for terrorists— either via external assault or internal sabo- tage. Specific information about security strengths and weaknesses at Calvert Cliffs is not available because of security concerns; only general data about nuclear plants has been released. That general security record of nuclear power plants is far from reassuring. In tests at 11 nuclear reactors in 2000 and 2001, mock intruders were capable of disabling enough equipment to cause re- actor damage at six plants.60

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Mobile Chernobyl Causes Econ Collapse

Prior to September 11, 2001, half of reactors failed to defend themselves against simulated attacks.61A 2003 GAO report found signifi- cant weaknesses in the NRC’s oversight of security at commercial nuclear reactors, including failing to require plants to correct identified security weaknesses and con- ducting simulated attacks to test security staff and systems in which plant operators were given advance warning and an oppor- tunity to prepare.62 In September 2004— three years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks—the GAO reported that the NRC had not yet implemented some of the GAO’s earlier recommendations andthat the NRC was not yet in a position to assure that plants are able to defend against terrorism.63 And in March 2006, the GAO was unable to conclude that all nuclear power plants were capable of defending themselves against a plausible terrorist at- tack, since only about one-third of the plants had conducted the necessary inspec- tions through simulated attacks. The GAO also questioned changes made to the NRC’s standards for protection against terrorist attacks, noting “the appearance that changes were made based on what the in- dustry considered reasonable and feasible to defend against rather than on an assess- ment of the terrorist threat itself.”64 Most recently, the NRC ruled that nuclear power plants do not need to create protections against the possibility of a terrorist attack by plane, despite evidence that the 9/11 attackers had considered targeting a nuclear power plant.65 Were an accident or terrorist attack to occur at Calvert Cliffs, evacuation routes from the area around the reactor would be limited and might be insufficient to remove all residents from harm’s way. The Calvert Cliffs reactors are in the far southern tip of Calvert County where the county tapers to a point between the Chesapeake Bay and the Patuxent River. The only major road serving the area is Route 2, which runs north/south. In case of an evacuation or- der, people living south of Calvert Cliffs in Calvert County would need to drive south on Route 2 to the Governor Thomas Johnson Bridge over the Patuxent River to St. Mary’s County. In normal traffic conditions, roads lead- ing to the bridge are frequently con- gested.66 During an evacuation, the road could become a bottleneck, preventing resi- dents from escaping radiation released from the plant. Releases During Waste Transport The danger to Maryland residents from radioactive waste will not be over once a federal repository is finally constructed. stored in spent fuel pools for at least five years before it is placed into casks for on- site storage or shipping. Transporting waste creates a hazard as the waste is shipped via train or truck. In theory, the federal waste repository at Yucca Mountain will store spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive wastes from com- mercial reactors around the nation. The logistical challenges of actually achieving this are tremendous. Nationally, 118,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel and 22,280 can- isters (typically containing 1 cubic meter of waste) of high-level radioactive waste could be moved to Yucca Mountain if the site is ever opened.67 The Department of Energy plans for the transportation to oc- cur over the course of 38 years, assuming the department’s plans are carried out with- out a hitch.68 The waste would be shipped in casks that would each contain as much as 240 times the amount of radioactive material released by the Hiroshima bomb.69 Radioactive Waste Management Associates, a consulting firm working for the state of Nevada, has estimated that 100 to 450 accidents will occur as nuclear waste is transported via train and truck to Yucca Mountain.70 A single serious accident could cause thousands of cancers and cost billions of dollars.71 Fortunately, no major accident has occurred during the transport of radioactive material, but many minor ones have. The Radioactive Material Incident Report data- base maintained by Sandia National Labo- ratories identifies 402 incidents from 1971 to 1999 in which a vehicle transporting radioactive material killed or injured some- one or was so damaged that it could not operate under its own power.72 Furthermore, even outside of an accident, emissions from passing casks will deliver involuntary doses of radiation to people living within one-half mile of road and rail routes. The DOE acknowledges that commuters stuck in traffic near a highly radioactive waste shipment would be exposed to the equivalent of one chest x-ray per hour.

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Derailment Impact – Toxic Chemicals/Environment

Derailment causes chemical spills, killing the environment Lange, Lori J, Fleming, Raymond, Toussaint, Loren, Social Behavior and Personality, 01/01/04, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3852/is_200401/ai_n9404663 Even though risks related to railroads may be perceived as familiar, the contents that they are transporting may not be perceived in the same way. It is not uncommon for trains to carry hazardous materials, and train derailments involving chemical spills have been associated with greater environmental worry about chemicals in the environment (Bowler et al., 1994). Because the accident under study in the current paper involved liquid propane and hazardous material, there is a possibility that risk perceptions for chemicals may become elevated.

A railroad derailment can kill millions through toxic gases and chemicals The Washington Post, 06/03/07, lexis A 90-ton rail car of chlorine passing within blocks of the Capitol, if its cargo were released, could kill or injure about 100 people per second. It would be lethal within two to five miles and dangerous for 14 miles. These facts frame a debate about whether to reroute rail cars carrying hazardous materials away from the District of Columbia, as explored recently in The Post. But there is a cheaper and more immediate way to enhance public safety, whether or not trains are ever rerouted. We need to develop quality training for preventing and handling accidents -- and acts of terrorism -- and then invest in such training for railroad personnel, emergency responders and community residents. At the moment, training by the railroads is woefully inadequate. Improvements in railroad safety are critical to regional and national security and to the health and well-being of Americans. One million tons of hazardous materials, including chemicals and nuclear waste, roll along railways every day through cities and towns across the United States, unprotected by adequate emergency procedures or personnel trained in how to manage a toxic-materials crisis. Millions of lives and billions of dollars are at stake. Training can mean the difference between life and death. In Graniteville, S.C., in 2005, one of three rail cars, each carrying 90 tons of deadly chlorine, was breached after a derailment. More than 60 tons of chlorine vaporized into a toxic cloud. The engineer, a young man in good health, ran through the cloud for safety, but, because he was breathing deeply, he was overcome. The conductor, who had military training in responding to poison gas, walked slowly through the cloud using shallow breathing and was able to escape with his life. A former chemistry teacher recognized chlorine gas emanating from the crash site and warned residents to stay indoors and turn off their ventilation systems.

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Turns the Case – Infrastructure Decreases Emissions

Improving rail infrastructure leads to lower transportation generated emissions ESTHER D'AMICO, 01/14/08, Chemical Week, lexis Some $ 148 billion will be needed to improve rail infrastructure and meet freight volumes that are expected to nearly double over the next 30 years, according to a study conducted by Cambridge Systematics (Cambridge, MA) for AAR. Most of that investment, $ 135 billion, would be concentrated along the lines of the nation's seven major freight railroads, and would go toward new tracks, signals, bridges, tunnels, terminals, and service facilities. "If needed investment isn't made, most of the increase in freight will move on the highways, further stressing overburdened roads and bridges," AAR says. "However, if the investments are made, the freight rail industry will be able to significantly lower transportation-generated emissions, reduce highway congestion, and ease wear and tear on highway infrastructure.

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Turns the Case – Railroads Decrease GHGs

Railroads are key to decrease GHG emissions National Atlas.gov, 07/04, http://www.nationalatlas.gov/articles/transportation/a_freightrr.html Second, railroads are environmentally friendly. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that for every ton-mile, a typical truck emits roughly three times more nitrogen oxides and particulates than a locomotive. Other studies suggest trucks emit six to 12 times more pollutants per ton-mile than do railroads, depending on the pollutant measured. Railroads also have a clear advantage in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the EPA, railroads account for just 9 percent of total transportation-related NOx emissions and 4 percent of transportation-related particulate emissions, even though they account for 42 percent of the nation's intercity freight ton-miles.

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Railroads Key to Readiness

Railroads are key to getting military tech delivered on time – necessary for combat Robert S. Korpanty is a former U.S. Army Colonel, “Preserving Strategic Rail Mobility,” The Army, Nov-Dec 1999, http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/NovDec99/MS455.htm [ND] The Railroads for National Defense Program ensures that the commercial railroad network is ready to deliver combat power where it is needed when it is needed. Tell any mechanized maneuver commander he has to fight a battle without his Abrams tanks or Bradley fighting vehicles, and you probably will see a puzzled look on his face that could be interpreted as, "What planet are you from?" or, "What language are you speaking?" Since it is doubtful that a major conflict will occur just outside the gates of Fort Stewart, Georgia, or Fort Hood, Texas, a key element of a successful engagement will be getting combat power wherever it is needed on time. Without a reliable commercial rail infrastructure, it is doubtful the tanks and Bradleys will make it to their place of business. To make sure they do, the Military Traffic Management Command developed the Railroads for National Defense (RND) Program in 1976. In 1991, the RND Program was assigned to the Military Traffic Management Command Transportation Engineering Agency (MTMCTEA), which now executes the program on behalf of the U.S. Transportation Command. This program ensures that the commercial rail infrastructure in the United States meets Department of Defense (DOD) requirements for deploying a force. The RND Program works to preserve our strategic rail mobility.

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Railroads Key to the Economy

Railroads key to the economy – shipping costs, manufacturing, and trade Railroads of New York, 05, http://www.railroadsofny.com/economy_environment.htm Both the United States and the State of New York are dependent upon a safe and efficient transportation system to move people and goods. In today's global economy, many of the things we use, as well as the things we make to sell to others, must be transported by the nation's freight transportation system. In New York State and the nation, that system has undergone significant changes over the course of our history. Originally, it was focused on our waterways, then to our railroads and more recently on our highway systems. Even so, today's rail freight system still plays a critical role in moving freight across our nation and state. According to a recent report entitled "Transportation - Invest in America: Freight - Rail Bottom Line Report", prepared by the Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO): 40% of intercity freight ton-miles are handled by rail. Rail freight moves over 600 miles on an average trip, while the average truck trip is about 245 miles. 92 billion truck-vehicle miles of travel would be added to the nation's highway system without our rail freight system. This additional truck traffic would cost federal, state and local transportation agencies an additional $64 billion over the next 20 years. If all rail freight were shifted to trucks, it would cost shippers an additional $69 billion per year - or $1.4 trillion over the next 20 years. Rail freight provides shippers with cost-effective transportation, especially for heavy and bulky commodities. Rail is also a preferred mode for hazardous materials shipments because of its positive safety record. Rail freight can be a critical factor in retaining and attracting manufacturing industries (and jobs) that are central and regional economies. Rail freight carries 16% percent of the nations' cross-border trade. Intermodal freight-rail service is critical to the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. Rail freight is fuel-efficient and generates less air pollution per ton-mile than trucking. Rail freight is vital to military mobilization and provides critically needed transportation system redundancy in national (and state) emergencies. The rail industry today is stable, productive and competitive, with enough revenue and profit to operate, but not enough to replenish its infrastructure quickly or grow rapidly.

Railroads are key to US competitiveness in a global economy William W. Millar, President American Public Transportation Association, 04/26/06, http://www.apta.com/government_affairs/aptatest/testimony060426.cfm Chairman LaTourette, Ranking Member Brown, and members of the House Railroads Subcommittee, on behalf of the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), we thank you for this opportunity to appear before you today to discuss the U.S. Rail Capacity Crunch. We very much appreciate that the Subcommittee is taking a comprehensive view, considering both passenger and freight issues. While goods movement is critical, the emergence of America's service economy has heightened the importance of on-time movement of people as well. America long has enjoyed the most extensive and efficient transportation system in the world. Today, other countries are catching up. Policies that support the growth of railroads - passenger and freight - are critical to America's mobility and our ability to compete in a global economy. The critical capacity issues affecting railroads passenger and freight - are a part of an overall crisis in transportation system capacity that also affects our airports, roadways, port facilities, and public transportation infrastructure. Such congestion is putting severe stress on America's transportation and logistics network, which historically has given America its economic edge.

Railroads are key to US competitiveness National Atlas.gov, 07/04, http://www.nationalatlas.gov/articles/transportation/a_freightrr.html Freight railroads are critical to the economic well-being and global competitiveness of the United States. They move 42 percent of our nation's freight (measured in ton-miles) - everything from lumber to vegetables, coal to orange juice, grain to automobiles, and chemicals to scrap iron - and connect businesses with each other across the country and with markets overseas. They also contribute billions of dollars each year to the economy through investments, wages, purchases, and taxes. There were 554 common carrier freight railroads operating in the United States in 2002, classified into five groups.

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Railroads Key to the Economy

Railroads key to the economy – they stimulate demand and employment FHA (United States Department of Transportation - Federal Highway Administration), 06/22/06, http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/freight_story/today.htm The benefits of freight transportation to the economy are enormous. Freight transportation increases the value of goods by moving them to locations where they worth more and encourages competition and production by extending the spatial boundaries of commodity and labor markets. Freight transportation also stimulates demand for goods and services and employs millions of people. Freight transportation infrastructure is a significant component of our nation's wealth and productive capacity. From a macroeconomic perspective, transportation accounts for a significant share of the U.S. GDP. In 2000, purchases of transportation-related goods and services accounted for approximately 11 percent of GDP (USDOT BTS 2002). Only housing, health care, and food accounted for a greater share (Figure 3). For-hire transportation services, which include warehousing, contributed about 3.3 percent ($303 billion) to GDP. Many industries and businesses depend on their own transportation operations (primarily trucking) to move goods. These "in-house" transportation services contributed an additional $142 billion to the economy (USDOT BTS 2001b).

Railroads key to the economy – they’re the most efficient means of transportation William W. Millar, President American Public Transportation Association, 04/26/06, http://www.apta.com/government_affairs/aptatest/testimony060426.cfm Looking to the future, railroads - passenger and freight - are poised to play an even greater role in enabling commerce and economic growth. Earlier this year America surpassed the 300 million mark in population. In 30 more years we are projected to reach 400 million. Most of the population will be living in metropolitan areas, making our use of land and transportation corridors all the more important. A look at the Los Angeles region's Metrolink commuter rail system provides a projection of demand anticipated for commuter rail services. Freight and passenger rail traffic in the L.A. / Orange County / Riverside corridor is expected to leap from 172 trains today to a total of 265 trains by 2010, and to a projected 390 trains per day in 2025. While America needs a transportation policy balanced on the strengths and synergies of roads, ports and rails, overall there should be a higher reliance on rail modes, which are much more efficient in terms of land and energy. Indeed, adding rail capacity is imperative also for its positive impact on parallel freeways already clogged with traffic. These urban/suburban areas have roads that are not only hopelessly congested, but roads that have already been expanded to close to their maximum capacity. Adding highway capacity in these areas is enormously expensive. For a fraction of the cost of such road construction/expansion, existing railroad rights-of-way can be reactivated / expanded / improved to accommodate traffic and reduce highway congestion for both freight and passenger movements.

Railroads key to the economy – they move billions of tonw of freight Brenda Turner, Employment Economist, 03/25/08, http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/ArticleReader?itemid=00002986 Freight and passenger railways tied the nation together like never before, allowing people and materials to move overland faster than ever. It was a revolution. Rail transportation remains an important component of today's economy. Railroads deliver billions of tons of freight and thousands of travelers to destinations throughout the nation, while subways and streetcars transport millions of passengers within metropolitan areas.

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Railroads Key to the Economy

Poor rail performance hurts the economy FHA (United States Department of Transportation - Federal Highway Administration), 06/22/06, http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/freight_story/today.htm Freight is big business. It is a necessity, not a luxury. When transportation system performance decreases, freightrelated businesses and their customers are affected in two ways. First, freight assets become less productive. Second, more freight transportation must be consumed to meet the needs of a thriving and expanding economy. Thus, when freight transportation under-performs, the economy pays the price. Reliable, predictable travel times are especially important in an economy where many goods are expensive and are needed in tightly scheduled manufacturing and distribution systems. Late arrivals can have significant economic costs for factories waiting for parts to assemble and for carriers who are missing guaranteed delivery times.

Railroads key to the economy – jobs FHA (United States Department of Transportation - Federal Highway Administration), 06/22/06, http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/freight_story/today.htm Freight transportation also contributes to the economy by providing jobs to millions of people—an important indicator of economic growth. In 2000, more than 10 million people were employed in transportation-related industries, including for-hire services, vehicle manufacturing, and parts suppliers. Of that total, for-hire transportation (including warehousing) employed more than 4.4 million workers, a majority of whom worked in freight-related jobs. Another 5.5 million people worked in transportation occupations in nontransportation industries, such as truck drivers for grocery stores (USDOT BTS 2001b). Truck drivers, alone, accounted for nearly 70 percent of the total number of transportation occupational workers (USDOT BTS 2002b). Improvements in freight productivity help the United States maintain its competitive position in the world economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that productivity for the intercity trucking, railroad, air transport, and petroleum pipeline industries has improved over the last 20 years. The railroad industry has posted the most impressive gains, followed by the pipeline industry. Improvements in railroad productivity resulted primarily from deregulation, divestiture of uneconomic lines, reductions in labor force, and changes in technology and logistics. Productivity improvements in trucking resulted primarily from public investments in a high quality national road network and deregulation.

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Railroads Key to the Economy

Railroad key to international competition John B. Ficker, president of the National Industrial Transportation League, 3/31/04, Testimony of the National Industrial Transportation League”, http://www.nitl.org/johnf.pdf The National Industrial Transportation League is one of the nation’s oldest and largest national associations representing companies engaged in the transportation of goods in both domestic and international commerce. The League was founded in 1907, and currently has approximately 600 company members. These members range from some of the largest users of the nation’s transportation system, to smaller companies engaged in the shipment and receipt of goods. League members use all forms of transportation for the shipment and receipt of goods of all kinds, to literally thousands of points in the United States. Many members of the League utilize rail transportation, and thus have a very substantial interest in federal policies relevant to rail carriers, including the status of the Surface Transportation Board and railroad economic regulation. Indeed, many League members are dependent on rail carriers to move their goods, and therefore need a safe, secure, efficient and financially healthy rail industry. For this reason, over the years the League has been a staunch supporter of the rail industry. Many League members are eager to increase their utilization of this vital industry, in order to meet their own and the nation’s transportation needs. In fact, the ability of American manufacturers to compete in a world economy and the creation of jobs in the United States, depends in substantial part on the existence of a competitive and efficient rail industry. Rail transportation is thus not simply a matter of private interest between rail carriers and shippers, but appreciably contributes to our nation’s overall economic health. Rail transportation also helps to alleviate congestion on our highways, and thus adds to the overall efficiency and safety of our nation’s entire transportation system. Moreover, the League well understands the capital-intensive nature of the rail industry and its large capital needs. Rail shippers depend on those infrastructures for the safe and efficient transportation of their goods. Almost exactly one year ago, the League appeared before this Subcommittee and urged the Congress to take steps to provide funds to improve the nation’s rail infrastructure and to reduce the amount of taxes that the nation’s rail carriers pay so that additional monies can be directed toward improving rail infrastructure.

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Railroads Key to Agriculture

Railroads key to ag Association of American Railroads, “The Economic Impact of America’s Freight Railroads,” May 2008 http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/162.ashx Without freight railroads, the U.S. economy could not function. In fact, railroads serve nearly every industrial, wholesale, retail, agricultural, and mineral-based sector of the economy: • Agricultural Products – Railroads have helped farmers get their goods to market since the earliest days of railroading. Class I railroads originated 1.7 million carloads of wheat, corn, soybeans, and other agricultural products in 2007. • Chemicals – The more than 2.0 million carloads of chemicals originated by Class I rail- roads in 2007 helped clean our water, fertilize our farms, package our food, build our cars and homes, and enhance our well-being in thousands of other ways. • Coal – Coal generates half of our electricity, and railroads haul more coal than any other transportation mode. Class I railroads originated 7.5 million carloads of coal in 2007, enough to meet the electricity needs of every home in America. By helping to keep coal- based generation affordable, railroads help reduce our dependence on imported energy. • Food Products – In addition to agricultural products, in 2007 railroads hauled 1.5 million carloads of animal feed, beer, birdseed, canned produce, corn syrup, flour, french fries, frozen chickens, sugar, wine, and countless other food products.

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Railroads Key to Low Food Prices

Railroads key to low food prices AAR (Association for American Railroads), 06/24/08, http://www.aar.org/Pressroom/News/2008/06/FOODCOST_RAIL_SAVINGS.aspx In his June 16, 2008 Des Moines Register column "To rein in cost of food, beef up transportation," guest writer Mike Steenhoek looks at the role the nation's distribution system contributes to food costs, noting that if more went by rail, costs could be kept lower. Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, wrote "The primary culprit for today's rising food prices is a more costly distribution system - significantly impacted by the escalating price of oil. A rise in the price of crude oil not only equates to a more expensive gallon of gasoline, but also a more expensive gallon of milk." Mr. Steenhoek's solution, direct enough resources to maintaining and augmenting our transportation infrastructure. "A railroad can transport one ton of freight 386 miles on one gallon of fuel," he wrote. "Yet our nation's leaders have missed the opportunity to provide tax incentives to railroads - particularly the shortline and regional railroads serving rural America - to augment their capacity-constrained network. Railroads, largely financed by the private sector, are responding to the increased congestion on their systems by raising rates on their customers in agriculture and other industries. Rail customers have witnessed fuel surcharges of up to $0.70 per car mile, equating to $130,000 in fuel surcharges for a train full of soybeans headed to the West Coast."

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Food Prices Impacts – Starvation

A small food price increase means 1.1 billion deaths Tampa Tribune, 1/20/96, p. 41 On a global scale, food supplies - measured by stockpiles of grain - are not abundant. In 1995, world production failed to meet demand for the third consecutive year, said Per Pinstrup-Andersen, director of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, D.C. As a result, grain stockpiles fell from an average of 17 percent of annual consumption in 1994-1995 to 13 percent at the end of the 1995-1996 season, he said. That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is well below the 17 percent the United Nations considers essential to provide a margin of safety in world food security. During the food crisis of the early 1970s, world grain stocks were at 15 percent. "Even if they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food," he said. "Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less." He also said many people in lowincome countries already spend more than half of their income on food.

Continued high food prices will cause mass starvation for 95% of the world Mike Adams is a staff writer for naturalnews.com. “The Biofuels Scam, Food Shortages and the Coming Collapse of the Human Population” April 23, 2008 http://www.naturalnews.com/023091.html So, to repeat, the food bubble is now starting to implode. What does it all mean? It means that as these economic and climate realities unfold, our world is facing massive starvation and food shortages. The first place this will be felt is in poor developing nations. It is there that people live on the edge of economic livelihood, where even a 20% rise in the price of basic food staples can put desperately-needed calories out of reach of tens of millions of families. If something is not done to rescue these people from their plight, they will starve to death. Wealthy nations like America, Canada, the U.K., and others will be able to absorb the price increases, so you won't see mass starvation in North America any time soon (unless, of course, all the honeybees die, in which case prepare to start chewing your shoelaces...), but it will lead to significant increases in the cost of living, annoying consumers and reducing the amount of money available for other purchases (like vacations, cars, fuel, etc.). That, of course, will put downward pressure on the national economy. But what we're seeing right now, folks, is just a small foreshadowing of events to come in the next couple of decades. Think about it: If these minor climate changes and foolish biofuels policies are already unleashing alarming rises in food prices, just imagine what we'll see when Peak Oil kicks in and global oil supplies really start to dwindle. When gasoline is $10 a gallon in the U.S., how expensive will food be around the world? The answer, of course, is that it will be triple or quadruple the current price. And that means many more people will starve. Fossil fuels, of course, aren't the only limiting factor threatening future food supplies on our planet: There's also fossil water. That's water from underground aquifers that's being pumped up to the surface to water crops, then it's lost to evaporation. Countries like India and China are depending heavily on fossil water to irrigate their crops, and not surprisingly, the water levels in those aquifers is dropping steadily. In a few more years (as little as five years in some cases), that water will simply run dry, and the crops that were once irrigated to feed a nation will dry up and turn to dust. Mass starvation will only take a few months to kick in. Think North Korea after a season of floods. Perhaps 95% of humanity is just one crop season away from mass starvation.

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Food Prices Impacts – Pakistan

Rising food prices are creating political instability in Pakistan Jason Gale “Pakistan's Food Affordability Threatens 77 Million” April 23 2008 http://www.defence.pk/forums/current-events-socialissues/11104-77million-threatened-pakistans-food-affordability-pakistan-may-import-1-5m-ton-wheat.html Almost half the population of Pakistan, the world's seventh­most­populous nation, faces difficulty gaining access to  affordable food because of the soaring cost of cereals, a World Food Program official said. The Rome-based United Nations agency increased its estimate of the number of so-called food insecure people in Pakistan to 77 million from 60 million, spokesman Paul Risley said in a telephone interview from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, yesterday. Pakistan's food prices jumped 21 percent in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace in at least six years, as water availability declined and farmers planted fewer crops, shrinking harvests. The South Asian nation may need to import wheat for a second year if the current harvest falls short of domestic demand. ``Pakistan has reached a tipping point,'' Risley said. ``It is no longer an exporter of food, but rather an importer.'' Pakistan is affected by world food prices that have surged by about 83 percent in the past  three years, provoking riots in poor nations and threatening to set back efforts to reduce global poverty, according to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan's prices of wheat flour, edible oil and pulses are at a record, according to Fareed Qureshi, chairman of the Karachi Retail Market Association. Flour is priced at 1,750 rupees ($27) for an 80-kilogram bag and the average price of pulses has risen 50 percent since January, he said. Edible Oil Average edible oil prices have climbed 16 percent since the start of the year and rice is 26 percent more costly than it was on Jan. 1. Hundreds of people line up for hours outside state-run fair price shops offering subsidized food, where scuffles break out over bags of flour or rice. Pakistan is one of 40 countries, mostly in Africa and Asia, identified by the WFP as being at risk of food  insecurity because of rising food prices, Risley said. ``In each of these counties, we are especially concerned that a lack of  access to affordable food could lead to political instability and social disruption,'' he said. The rural poor will suffer hunger silently, while the urban poor will be more prone to rioting, Risley said. ``This is an expression that hasn't been heard in decades because recent economic growth, especially in Asia, has helped poor populations in urban and rural settings,'' he said. ``Now we're beginning to see a return to those very critical choices that are forced on families when food is not accessible, when food is not affordable.''

Unstable Pakistan leads to proliferation Kristin Roberts “Pakistan political instability raises nuclear risk” 08 Nov 2007 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N08386391.htm Pentagon officials say Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is secure in military hands, but some U.S. lawmakers and experts warn that nuclear material and designs could leak out if political instability persists. Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has concentrated control over the entire nuclear program. But a decline in his support within the military amid the current political crisis raises a risk that control over the weapons could weaken. That could open the door to theft or sale of weapons material to extremist groups, some experts say. Some weapons experts and U.S. officials still suspect Pakistan's military of at least knowing about the smuggling activities of Pakistan's A.Q. Khan network that sold weapons technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya. "This is a country that's leaked nuclear weapons designs, centrifuges," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "Two of its scientists talked to (Osama) bin Laden about how to make nuclear weapons in 2001." "It's a system that's leaked very dangerous information," he said. "You have to worry about the integrity of the system in a period of growing instability." A senior U.S. general this week said the Pentagon was worried about the security of Pakistan nuclear weapons after Musharraf declared a state of emergency on Saturday, prompting protests and arrests. U.S. lawmakers, however, expressed more uncertainty about the security of the weapons. Rep. Ellen Tauscher, a California Democrat on a congressional committee that oversees the U.S. military, said the United States lacked full knowledge of Pakistan's weapons. "We need a lot more visibility on what's going on in Pakistan. Who does have that football? Who is next in line?," she said about Pakistan's nuclear weapons. "I've learned that we don't have as strong a handle on it," said Tauscher, who has access to some U.S. intelligence as a member of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee. Asked if she knew specific details of Pakistan's weapons, including their location and the chain of command over those weapons, she said, "I don't know, and I've asked the question a couple of different ways." Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, a Democratic presidential hopeful and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Pakistan was at real risk of becoming a failed state. 60

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Food Prices Impacts – Pakistan

Proliferation causes nuclear war and extinction Victor A. Utgoff is Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” 2002, pg 87-90 Further, the large number of states that became capable of building nuclear weapons over the years, but chose not to, can be reasonably well explained by the fact that most were formally allied with either the United States or the Soviet Union. Both these superpowers had strong nuclear forces and put great pressure on their allies not to build nuclear weapons. Since the Cold War, the US has retained all its allies. In addition, NATO has extended its protection to some of the previous allies of the Soviet Union and plans on taking in more. Nuclear proliferation by India and Pakistan, and proliferation programmes by North Korea, Iran and Iraq, all involve states in the opposite situation: all judged that they faced serious military opposition and had little prospect of establishing a reliable supporting alliance with a suitably strong, nuclear-armed state. What would await the world if strong protectors, especially the United States, were [was] no longer seen as willing to protect states from nuclear-backed aggression? At least a few additional states would begin to build their own nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to distant targets, and these initiatives would spur increasing numbers of the world’s capable states to follow suit. Restraint would seem ever less necessary and ever more dangerous. Meanwhile, more states are becoming capable of building nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Many, perhaps most, of the world’s states are becoming sufficiently wealthy, and the technology for building nuclear forces continues to improve and spread. Finally, it seems highly likely that at some point, halting proliferation will come to be seen as a lost cause and the restraints on it will disappear. Once that happens, the transition to a highly proliferated world would probably be very rapid. While some regions might be able to hold the line for a time, the threats posed by wildfire proliferation in most other areas could create pressures that would finally overcome all restraint. Many readers are probably willing to accept that nuclear proliferation is such a grave threat to world peace that every effort should be made to avoid it. However, every effort has not been made in the past, and we are talking about much more substantial efforts now. For new and substantially more burdensome efforts to be made to slow or stop nuclear proliferation, it needs to be established that the highly proliferated nuclear world that would sooner or later evolve without such efforts is not going to be acceptable. And, for many reasons, it is not. First, the dynamics of getting to a highly proliferated world could be very dangerous. Proliferating states will feel great pressures to obtain nuclear weapons and delivery systems before any potential opponent does. Those who succeed in outracing an opponent may consider preemptive nuclear war before the opponent becomes capable of nuclear retaliation. Those who lag behind might try to preempt their opponent’s nuclear programme or defeat the opponent using conventional forces. And those who feel threatened but are incapable of building nuclear weapons may still be able to join in this arms race by building other types of weapons of mass destruction, such as biological weapons. [The article continues…] The war between Iran and Iraq during the 1980s led to the use of chemical weapons on both sides and exchanges of missiles against each other’s cities. And more recently, violence in the Middle East escalated in a few months from rocks and small arms to heavy weapons on one side, and from police actions to air strikes and armoured attacks on the other. Escalation of violence is also basic human nature. Once the violence starts, retaliatory exchanges of violent acts can escalate to levels unimagined by the participants before hand. Intenseand blinding anger is a common response to fear or humiliation or abuse. And such anger can lead us to impose on our opponents whatever levels of violence are readily accessible. In sum, widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear weapons, and that such shoot-outs will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible with the weapons at hand. Unless nuclear proliferation is stopped, we are headed toward a world that will mirror the American Wild West of the late 1800s. With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear 'six-shooters' on their hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a while we will all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.

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Food Prices Impacts – Economy

Food insecurity creates failed states and disrupts the global economy Lester R. Brown is founder of the Worldwatch Institute and founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute, “Exploding U.S. Grain Demand for Automotive Fuel Threatens World Food Security and Political Stability” November 3, 2006 http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2006/Update60.htm The number of hungry people in the world has been declining for several decades, but in the late 1990s the trend reversed and the number began to rise. The United Nations currently lists 34 countries as needing emergency food assistance. Many of these are considered failed and failing states, including Chad, Iraq, Liberia, Haiti, and Zimbabwe. Since food aid programs typically have fixed budgets, if the price of grain doubles, food aid will be reduced by half. Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries, such as Mexico, could lead to political instability that would add to the growing list of failed and failing states. At some point, spreading political instability could disrupt global economic progress.

High food prices are the biggest threat to consumer confidence Robert Gavin, Globe Staff, 03/09/08, http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2008/03/09/surging_costs_of_groceries_hit_home/?page=2 Rising food prices can be particularly corrosive to consumer confidence because people are so frequently exposed to the cost increases. "It's the biggest risk we face economically, and it might be the thing that does us in," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp. in New York. "There's nothing really worse than having a job, making money, and forking most of it over just so you can have the same amount of food. You're running in place, and it really weighs on you." As with energy, higher food costs cut into discretionary income that buys everything from cars to computers to movie tickets and drives the consumer-based US economy. Falling home values and a faltering stock market have battered consumer confidence, spurring a retrenchment in spending that is contributing to recent job losses and pulling the economy toward recession.

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AT: Clean Coal Solves - Renewables

Renewable energy tradesoff with clean coal – its more cost effective, DOE studies prove David Sassoon, starter of Solve Climate, 2/1/08 (“DOE Report: Renewables Currently Cheaper Than "Clean" Coal” Solve Climate – Blog Rab) Renewable energy is currently cheaper than clean coal. The DOE proves it in three easy steps. Step 1 (page 5) The overall goal of the Carbon Sequestration Program is to develop, by 2012, fossil fuel conversion systems that achieve 90 percent CO2 capture with 99 percent storage permanence at less than a 10 percent increase in the cost of energy services. Step 2 (page 9) It is believed that a 10 percent cost of electricity (COE) increase would significantly reduce impact to the economy. This level will also enable fossil fuel systems with CO2 capture and sequestration to compete with other power generation options to reduce the GHG intensity of energy supply, including wind, biomass, and nuclear power. Presumably, then, DOE believes if you increase the cost of electricity from coal more than 10%, it can no longer compete with alternatives. (Okay, so they omitted solar and included nuclear, but hang on.) Step 3 (page 17-18) Preliminary analysis…indicates…that CO2 capture….could raise the cost of electricity from a new supercritical PC power plant by 65%, from 5.0 cents/kWh to 8.25 cents/kWh. Analysis….show that CO2 capture and compression raises…..the cost of electricity from a newly built IGCC power plant by 30%, from an average of 7.8 cents/kWh to 10.2 cents/kWh. So they've got until 2012, according to their plan, the bring the cost of clean coal technology down. Way down. Let's see. They pulled the plug on FutureGen a couple of days ago because of ballooning costs. The Bush administration, in a major policy reversal, canceled its support for a planned $1.8 billion coal-gasification plant that was supposed to herald a new era of emissions-free power but instead has been plagued by huge cost overruns. Clean energy is moving in the opposite direction.

Renewables tradeoff with Clean Coal Northern Territory News, 11/7/07 “ALP 'ignores' clean coal,” p. Lexis RESOURCES Minister Ian Macfarlane says Labor has ignored clean coal in its energy strategy to gain Greens preferences. Visiting the coal export region of Hay Point in central Queensland yesterday, Mr Macfarlane said it was important to invest in renewable energy, but just as important to develop low emission fossil fuels such as clean coal. ''By including only renewables in its energy target, Labor has placed clean coal technology at a huge competitive disadvantage at a critical stage in its development,'' Mr Macfarlane said. ''Labor is picking winners to win Green preferences, and has decided against supporting efforts to clean up our number one energy source, coal.''

Other Renewables tradeoff with clean coal The Courier Mail, 7/25/05, “Generation glut a concern,” p. Lexis INCREASING demand for electricity would support a swarm of expensive plans for providing power, industry watchers say. But the financial feasibility of projects will prove critical and some say government renewable energy targets will impact on any potential glut of proposals. Numerous competing proposals for generating or supplying power have hit the market, ranging from clean coal technology to geothermal energy to a gas pipeline from Papua New Guinea.

AT: Clean Coal Solves – Cap and Trade Cap and trade will stop clean coal technology in its tracks Lawrence Kudlow, former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company, 5/29/2008, Coal-Cap Disaster, Creators Syndicate, http://www.creators.com/opinion/lawrence-kudlow/coal-cap-disaster.html Let that idea sink in. By pulling the plug on half of our current electricity production, cap-and-trade will risk a massive undermining of the American economy, as well as our future economic and national security. The coal story is so important simply because the United States has massively undeveloped coal resources. With 27 percent of the world's coal reserves estimated at 270 billion tons, the United States is the Saudi Arabia of coal. And yet cap-and-trade 63

Railroad DA DDI 2008 – Berthiaume – Quinn Ben Benson would destroy this critical sector. New coal technologies being developed right now wouldn't even be allowed to flourish under cap-and-trade. Synthetic-fuel-developed coal, through the Fisher-Tropsch technology, is a proven gas-to-liquid process that sequesters coal carbon. It could power the American economy for generations. Rentech Corp. is already using this process to create an ultra-low carbon and sulfur liquid that can be easily adapted to all our transportation needs. According to the ESS Environmental company, other chemical-based technologies that produce virtually no carbon emissions also could be used. But the great risk is that cap-and-trade will stop these technologies dead in the water, right in their tracks. That would be a tragedy.

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AT: Clean Coal Solves - RPS RPS Excludes the usage of clean coal which discourages its development and use R. Bruce Josten, Executive vice president of government affairs in the chamber of commerce, 6/15/07, letter to Reps. John D Dingell and Rick Boucher, http://energycommerce.house.gov/Climate_Change/RSP%20feedback/US%20Chamber%2006%2015%2007.pdf) II. Portfolio Inclusions and Exclusions: Which energy sources should be included in an RPS; should there be a tiered” system for eligibility, and should there be adistinction between new and existing sources; should there be credits for useful thermal energy from eligible resources; and should energy efficiency be considered, and, if so, how. One of the major drawbacks to current and RPS bills that have circulated through Congress is the definition of what energy sources are “renewable.” Clean, safe, and reliable energy sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, and clean coal technology have typically been excluded from this definition. As a result, the RPS accomplishes precisely what energy legislation should not do: it picks winners and losers. Should Congress choose to bind all states to a baseline renewable portfolio standard—which, again, the Chamber does not consider necessary—then it must strive to be as inclusive as possible. If the true policy goal of an RPS is to encourage energy production, there is no legitimate reason why certain clean, safe energy producers are left standing at the door while others benefit.

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AT: Clean Coal Solves - Wind Promoting wind energy trades off with coal growth Janice Mays, Chief Counsel of the Committee on Ways&Means—US House of representative, 4/4/07, “Analysis of Alternative Extensions of the Existing Production Tax Credit for Wind Generator,” from the Energy Information Administration – Official energy statistics from the US government, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ptc/index.html A permanent extension of the PTC increases wind generation in each of the credit amount cases. Compared to the reference case, a permanent extension of the current 1.9 cents per kilowatthour credit would more than triple 2030 generation from wind plants. With a similar extension and a lower PTC amount of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour, wind generation in 2030 would still more than double relative to the reference case, whereas the permanent extension of a PTC of 1.0 cent per kilowatthour would increase wind generation by about 40 percent over the reference case level in 2030. In this lowest credit amount extension case, wind generation at the end of the period is five-fold the 2005 level. The share of total electricity generation projected to come from wind facilities in 2030 with a permanent PTC extension ranges from 1 percent with a 1.0 cent per kilowatthour PTC to 3 percent with a 1.9 cent per kilowatthour credit. In each of the PTC extension cases, total electricity sales are unchanged. Therefore, the additional generation from wind displaces generation from other technologies. In the 1.9 cent five-year extension case, the 20 additional billion kilowatthours of generation from wind facilities slightly slows nuclear and coal expansions, although there is also less electricity generated from dedicated biomass facilities. This wind expansion results in 500 fewer megawatts of biomass capacity relative to the business-as-usual forecast. In 2030, when compared to the reference case results, nuclear generation is lesser by 10 billion kilowatthours, and there is a similar effect on coal generation. In the permanent extension cases, which have greater effects on the fuel mix, most of the additional wind generation is at the expense of coal generation growth. Nearly all of the 2030 wind power production levels that are above reference case levels result in a dampening of coal generation of the same magnitude. In the 1.9 cent permanent extension case, 122 billion kilowatthours of additional wind generation is balanced by a drop of 122 billion kilowatthours in electricity generated from coal. Even in this case, however, coal generation in 2030 is 59 percent above 2005 levels.

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AT: Clean Coal Solves - Solar Solar power trades off with clean coal development – its cheaper Matt Peacock, writer for ABC, 10/2/07 (“Solar takes off with US power supply deal” Australian Broadcast Corporation < http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/02/2048420.htm> Rab) Dr Diesendorf says the huge US investment into solar will soon make talk of clean coal and nuclear as solutions to climate change redundant. "Basically, the solar thermal technology will be on the ground, certainly in the United States and many other countries long before so-called clean coal and nuclear power," he said. Mr Khosla says solar power is developing rapidly and will be cheaper than either nuclear power or 'clean' coal. "We think we can move much faster than nuclear and on an unsubsidised basis, we will be cheaper than nuclear power, and we should be cheaper than IGCC [integrated gasification combined cycle] coal-based power generation," he said. Dr Mills says big solar plants will be able to replace nuclear and fossil fuel-fired plants in the US. "In five years time, we'll have very large plants and I would say gigawatt-style plants already commissioned, able to run 24 hours a day and completely replace the function of nuclear and coal plants," he said.

Solar power replaces clean coal Dr. Mark Diesendorf, senior lecturer of Enviromental Studies at the University of South Wales, 1/10/07 (“Aust technology to revolutionise clean electricity” Australian Broadcast Corporation – The 7:30 Report < http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2047734.htm> Rab) DR MARK DIESENDORF, ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, NSW: It's important to get a large scale for the development to bring down costs, and the United States offers a magnificent opportunity for large-scale solar development. MATT PEACOCK: Solar power is not new in the United States. This giant photovoltaic plant in the Mojave Desert was built during the oil shock of the 1980s. And more recent concern over global warming has led to other investment into solar thermal plants like this one in Nevada. The low cost of Ausra's new design, though, is now attracting the big money. VINOH KHOSLA: What's very exciting is major utilities in the US are now starting to believe our story after doing their own independent due diligence. They actually believe this is competitive power generation. More importantly it's reliable power generation. We can ship them power when the sun isn't shining, which is what most utilities need. MATT PEACOCK: The coal and nuclear industries have long asserted that base load power can't be supplied by renewable energy, a mantra repeated by our politicians. MALCOLM TURNBULL, MINISTER, ENVIRONMENT & WATER RESOURCES : You cannot run a modern economy on wind farms and solar powers. It's a pity that you can't, but you can't. JOHN HOWARD, PRIME MINISTER: Solar is a nice, easy soft answer. There's this vague idea in the community that solar doesn't cost anything and it can solve the problem. It can't. It can't replace base load power generation by power stations. MATT PEACOCK: But base load power supply is just what Ausra is now being contracted to supply for the insatiable US market. It says that within two years it'll be able to economically store its hot water for more than 16 hours. DAVID MILLS: The interesting thing is that there's a correlation between human activity [and energy use]. We get up in the morning everyday, we start using energy, we go to sleep at night. And the presence of the sun, that's natural. And that correlation means that we can get away with a lot less storage than we might have thought. DR MARK DIESENDORF: Well, there's been a lot of nonsense talked about, in Australia and elsewhere, about renewable energy allegedly not being able to provide base load power. Not being able to substitute for coal. That's never been true. It's even untrue with regard to wind power and now with solar thermal power, it's certainly untrue. MATT PEACOCK: the huge US investment into solar will soon make talk of clean coal and nuclear as a solution to climate change redundant, according to Mark Diesendorf at the University of New South Wales. DR MARK DIESENDORF: Basically, the solar thermal technology will be on the ground, certainly in the United States and many other countries long before so-called clean coal and nuclear power.

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AT: Railroads Losing Market Share Now Railroads are reclaiming market share in the status quo Ann Belser, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 07/06/08, http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/jul/06/economy-environment-haverailroads-experiencing/ Railroads have not seen a dip in business in the last 20 years, but what they did lose was market share. As more and more goods were shipped, more of them were on trucks. In 1960, there were 1.2 billion tons of goods moved by rail in the United States. In 1980, that number was up to 1.5 billion, and in 2006, the last year for which figures are available, nearly 2 billion tons of goods traveled the railways. And while railroads have lost market share to the trucking industry, that is starting to change. The Association of American Railroads figured that while it takes 27 gallons of diesel to move a ton of freight from coast to coast, the same load could be moved on a train for seven gallons.

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AT: Railroad Profits Resilient Railroads are only becoming resilient because of strong coal demand Steven Halpern offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors, “Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'” Thestockadvisers.com, Jul 17 2008 http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/07/17/union-pacific-unp-railroad-renaissance/ "Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit. Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP). "My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth. "It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating. "In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks. "Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries. "Union Pacific's energy segment is its largest by revenue; it accounts for just shy of 20% of the company's business. Coal transport from a region of the West known as the Powder River Basin comprises the majority of Union Pacific's energy transport business. "Strong demand for coal transport has made this segment a real bright spot for the railroad in recent years. Better still, Union-Pacific still transports coal under contracts signed years ago at lower freight rates. As these contracts expire, Union Pacific should see strong pricing gains as it signs new deals.

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AT: Nuclear Shipments Low Nuclear shipments by rail projected to increase US Government Accountability Office, “Rail Safety and Security: Some Actions Already Taken to Enhance Rail Security, but Risk-based Plan Needed,” Report to Congressional Requesters, April 2003 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03435.pdf The proposed plan to ship spent nuclear fuel, as soon as 2010 and most likely by rail, to the Yucca Mountain Repository in Nevada—the nation’s first long-term geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste—has raised concerns about the safety and security of possible transportation to this site.9 A second proposal to ship spent nuclear fuel to temporary storage in a private facility in Utah has heightened these concerns.10 Such shipments would substantially increase the volume of nuclear material transported in this country.11

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AT: Railroads Failing Now Coal demand high because of increasing electricity needs Richard Heinberg, Staff Writer, Global Public Media, 5-28-08, http://globalpublicmedia.com/museletter_194_coal_in_the_united_states, Junaid The sheer amounts of coal that will be needed in order to offset any significant proportion of oil (and perhaps also natural gas) consumption, and to meet the projected increased demand for electricity, are mind-boggling. Coal is a lower-quality fossil fuel in the best case, and America is being forced to use ever lower-quality coal. Just to offset the declining heating value of US coal while meeting EIA forecasts for electricity demand growth by 2030, the nation will then have to mine roughly 80 percent more coal then than it is doing currently. If carbon sequestration and other new technologies for consuming coal are implemented, they will increase the amount of coal required in order to produce the same amount of energy for society’s use, since the energy penalty for capture and sequestration is estimated at up to 40 percent. A broad-scale effort to produce synthetic liquid fuels from coal (CTL) will also dramatically increase coal demand. If the current trend to expand coal exports continues, this would stimulate demand even further. Altogether, there is a realistic potential for more than a doubling, perhaps even a tripling, of US coal demand and production by 2030—which would hasten exhaustion of the resource from many current mining regions and draw the inevitable production peak closer in time.

2. Coal demand high and rising – it’s a low-cost fuel Kirby Lee Davis, Staff Writer, Journal Record, 3-12-08, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4182/is_20080312/ai_n24936262, Junaid "The cost of electricity is driven by a large part on the percent of coal used to generate it," said Craft, defending his industry's performance and interests while linking future gross domestic product growth to a continued abundance of inexpensive electricity. "Coal remains the low-cost alternative." Craft said electrical power generation by coal-fueled plants rose 50 percent last year to 3.9 billion kilowatts per hour. Federal government projections estimate that will grow to 4.9 billion kilowatts by 2030, with improved sulfur removal technologies allowing the coal-fired market share to hit 57 percent. Coal usage is projected to rise 48 percent over that period, he said, comprising the majority of power generation. Renewable sources would increase 60 percent, he said, while nuclear power generation would climb 19 percent and petroleum sources 9 percent.

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AT: DoE Routes Turn Assumes theft, not derailment – DOE has no plan to solve safety

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AT: Nuclear Trades of with Natural Gas, not Coal Nuclear power will trade off with coal Miguel Llanos, MSNBC, 7/7/05, Hot Idea: Fight Warming with Nuclear Power, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8120563/ Mainstream environmentalists "treat nuclear as if it is a trade-off against conservation" — use less energy and nuclear won't be needed, he said. "But it's really a trade-off against burning coal," Brand said. By ramping up nuclear, he said, nations can phase out coal, which is the dirtiest fossil fuel and causes hundreds of premature deaths each year in the United States alone.

Nuclear is the biggest threat to coal Australian Labor Party, 10/31/07, Labor Committed to Coal- Howard Committed to Nuclear, http://www.alp.org.au/media/1007/mseng310.php The biggest threat to the coal industry is the Howard Government’s plans for twenty five nuclear reactors across Australia. In contrast with its reluctance to support the future of the coal industry the Howard Government has been eager to push for the construction of twenty five nuclear reactors across the country. These reactors would potentially replace existing and future coal fired power stations.

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AT: Budget Not key to Infrastructure Investment Coal profits key to infrastructure investments – forty percent of revenue is invested Association of American Railroads, 10/07, http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/294.ashx DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory reports that, as of May 2007, some 151 coal-fired generating plants in dozens of states representing 90 gigawatts have been announced or are in development. If ultimately built, this new generation would increase annual U.S. coal requirements by several hundred million tons. Railroad’s past performance strongly suggests that they will be able to handle this increased demand, as long as the necessary investments in their networks are made. Because railroading is a network business, improvements or investments in one location can affect rail traffic at distant points. Therefore, even investments made on rail lines that do not carry substantial amounts of coal can positively impact railroads’ coal operations. It takes an enormous amount of money to run a freight rail system. The rail industry is near the top among all U.S. industries in terms of capital intensity. In fact, from 1996-2005 (the most recent year for which data are available) the average U.S. manufacturer spent 3.4 percent of revenue on capital expenditures. The comparable figure for U.S. freight railroads was 17.2 percent, or more than five times higher. Similarly, in 2006 railroad net investment in plant and equipment per employee was $620,000---nearly eight times the average for all U.S. manufacturing ($84,000). When maintenance expenses are included, rail investments rise substantially. Including capital and maintenance spending, from 1980 through 2006 Class 1 railroads invested more than $375 billion (and short lines spent additional billions) to maintain and improve their infrastructure and equipment---with most of this spending directly or indirectly benefiting coal. After accounting for depreciation freight railroads typically spend $16 billion to $18 billion per year---equal, on average, to more than 40 cents out of every revenue dollar---to provide the high quality assets they need to operate safely and efficiently. Moreover, rail capital spending, which was already enormous, is expected to rise to around $9.2 billion in 2007, up from around $5.7 billion just five years earlier. This huge increase demonstrates the diligence with which railroads are responding to the capacity and service issues and positioning themselves to handle rail shippers needs in the future. Looking ahead, billions of dollars of rail investments will be directed specifically at coal, including new locomotives and train sets; double-, triple-, and even quadrupletracking heavily-used coal routes; bypasses, sidings, and terminals; and thousands of new employees. These investments will enhance coal-carrying capacity and the fluidity of rail operations.

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AT: Cars are Super Strong Accidents would breach the casks

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AT: New Tech Solves Testing is insufficient

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AT: Budget not key to Infrastructure Investment Capital investments are key to solve derailment Christopher P.L. Barkan, Associate Professor and Director of the Railroad Engineering Program at the University of Illinois, and C. Tyler Dick, Graduate research assistant in Railroad Engineering at the University of Illinois, 2003, “Analysis of railroad derailment factors affecting hazardous materials transportation risk”, http://www.ltrc.lsu.edu/TRB_82/TRB2003-002429.pdf The US railroad mainline accident rate has declined by over 75% since 1980 (Figure 1) and the hazardous materials accidentcaused release rate has declined by nearly 90% (1,2,3). This improvement is the result of major capital investments in infrastructure and equipment, improved safety designs of tank cars (4), employee training efforts, and the development and implementation of new technology (5). Most of this improvement in safety took place in the 1980s, and although the downward trend in mainline accident rate continued through the 1990s, it declined at a lower rate and has leveled off in recent years (Figure 1). The occurrence of major accident-caused hazardous materials releases has declined to such an extent that identification and implementation of further safety improvements is much more challenging because there is less empirical information on which causes are contributing the greatest risk.

AT: Coal Peak coming by X year US coal will last over two hundred years EIA (Energy Information Administration) 2/07, “COAL -- A Fossil Fuel,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/sources/non-renewable/coal.html Coal reserves are beds of coal still in the ground waiting to be mined. The United States has the world's largest known coal reserves, about 267.6 billion short tons. This is enough coal to last approximately 236 years at today's level of use. Coal production is the amount of coal that is mined and sent to market. In 2005, the amount of coal produced at U.S. coal mines reached an all time high of 1,131.5 million short tons. Coal is mined in 27 states. Wyoming mines the most coal, followed by West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Texas.Coal is mainly found in three large regions, the Appalachian Coal Region, the Interior Coal Region, and Western Coal Region (includes the Powder River Basin).

US coal supply will last at least 250 more years Jeffrey W. Johnson, Senior correspondent, BS in industrial engineering at California state polytechnic University, MS in journalism at University of Oregon, writer for Chemical and Engineering News, 2/23/04, “Getting to Clean Coal,” http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8208/8208coal.html Yet these miners barely tap the U.S.'s coal supply. Geologists say the nation has enough coal to last at least another 250 years. And U.S. coal is so cheap that even the poor efficiency of the nation's aging power plants doesn't make much difference.

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A2 Coal Prices falling now Despite recent shocks, prices remain high Alex Wilson, Staff Writer, Dow Jones, 7-3-08, Posted on the Australian Business, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23963477-5005200,00.html, Junaid Market commentators also said prices in Asia were set to stay high with all the indicators pointing to ongoing tightness in the market. The Newcastle spot coal price fell sharply today, following on from a 20 per cent drop in spot thermal coal prices in Europe overnight, sparking heavy selling in Australian coal stocks. However the price drop is only a partial retracement of gains seen in recent weeks when the spot coal price surged ahead of the recently agreed contract prices for Asian buyers of $US125 a metric tonne, and appears to be a temporary reversal. Brendan Harris, mining analyst at Macquarie, said the coal market remains tight with prices set to stay high and the pullback overnight would not be prompting him to downgrade earnings for the Australian miners he covers.

Coal Demand boom likely to last Reuters, 6-26-08, http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKN2625742720080626m, Junaid NEW YORK (Reuters) - Unlike previous U.S. coal booms, the current one is likely to last because of persistent world demand and output problems in other producing countries, an industry analyst said Thursday. Jim Griffin, managing director of Rothschild Inc, told the 2008 McCloskey Coal USA conference that some factors in today's coal market resemble the boombust cycle of the 1980s, such as strong Asian demand and a weak dollar. But now is different, he said, citing the difficulty of expanding coal production amid regulatory, labor and financing challenges. He also cited the breadth of world economic growth that is driving persistent coal demand.

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A2 Exports Turn You evidence doesn’t actually say this. It is merely powertagged. It does not say that the plan decreases exports, but it does reinforce the link by saying coal demand and prices are necessary to sustain the railroad industry.

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A2 Railroads can’t keep up with production They say that trains can’t keep up with high economic production, but1. Turn- the plan would take money away from railroads by decreasing coal demand, killing their ability to grow. Railroads use coal to buy new locamotives and expand their business, that’s Freeman. //JMA 2.

No impact- a decrease in coal prices would still hurt their business, that’s the Association of American Railroads. //JMA

New tech is making railways more efficient Jack Speer, Newscaster for NPR, 5/25/06, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5429435 // JMA 3.

Technology has allowed the railroad to root out inefficiencies in its system. For instance, Norfolk Southern cut the time it takes to move a train from Birmingham, Ala., to Allentown, Pa., by two and a half days. John Hall has been driving trains for 40 years. The engineer commands a 4,000 horsepower locomotive that costs more than $1.5 million. To him, the technology has been something of a mixed blessing. "There are so many jobs disappearing, I think maybe it's bad," Hall says. "Maybe it's good in the way they know where everybody's at." Fifty years ago, about 1 million people worked for U.S. railroads. Today the number is around 160,000. Despite that decline, railroad workers today move far more freight -- and do it more efficiently -- than their predecessors. The freight railroads are experimenting with even more sophisticated technologies, including a system that will let them remotely control the speed of a locomotive. One day soon, the trains might just drive themselves. Moorman says that before the deregulation of the industry in 1980, many freight railroads weren't investing at anywhere near the levels needed. He says that with business now booming, that has all changed. "We now manage the railroad in a different way than we used to, because some of the things we always knew were important but we could not quantify, we can now quantify," Moorman says. That investment is likely to continue. As West Coast ports become increasingly clogged, more goods are being brought to East Coast ports from Asia. That means more business for Norfolk Southern. The rail line plans to spend nearly $100 million to upgrade its line between Norfolk, Va., and Columbus, Ohio, a major Midwest distribution point. Investors are also reaping the rewards of the increased use of technology. Norfolk Southern's first-quarter earnings were up sharply. The railroad's stock has risen 85 percent in the past two years.

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A2 Rising demand doesn’t mean investment 40% of profits go into investing in new infrastructure Association of American Railroads, 10/07, http://www.aar.org/IndustryInformation/~/media/AAR/BackgroundPapers/294.ashx //JMa DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory reports that, as of May 2007, some 151 coal-fired generating plants in dozens of states representing 90 gigawatts have been announced or are in development. If ultimately built, this new generation would increase annual U.S. coal requirements by several hundred million tons. Railroad’s past performance strongly suggests that they will be able to handle this increased demand, as long as the necessary investments in their networks are made. Because railroading is a network business, improvements or investments in one location can affect rail traffic at distant points. Therefore, even investments made on rail lines that do not carry substantial amounts of coal can positively impact railroads’ coal operations. It takes an enormous amount of money to run a freight rail system. The rail industry is near the top among all U.S. industries in terms of capital intensity. In fact, from 1996-2005 (the most recent year for which data are available) the average U.S. manufacturer spent 3.4 percent of revenue on capital expenditures. The comparable figure for U.S. freight railroads was 17.2 percent, or more than five times higher. Similarly, in 2006 railroad net investment in plant and equipment per employee was $620,000---nearly eight times the average for all U.S. manufacturing ($84,000). When maintenance expenses are included, rail investments rise substantially. Including capital and maintenance spending, from 1980 through 2006 Class 1 railroads invested more than $375 billion (and short lines spent additional billions) to maintain and improve their infrastructure and equipment---with most of this spending directly or indirectly benefiting coal. After accounting for depreciation freight railroads typically spend $16 billion to $18 billion per year---equal, on average, to more than 40 cents out of every revenue dollar---to provide the high quality assets they need to operate safely and efficiently. Moreover, rail capital spending, which was already enormous, is expected to rise to around $9.2 billion in 2007, up from around $5.7 billion just five years earlier. This huge increase demonstrates the diligence with which railroads are responding to the capacity and service issues and positioning themselves to handle rail shippers needs in the future. Looking ahead, billions of dollars of rail investments will be directed specifically at coal, including new locomotives and train sets; double-, triple-, and even quadrupletracking heavily-used coal routes; bypasses, sidings, and terminals; and thousands of new employees. These investments will enhance coal-carrying capacity and the fluidity of rail operations.

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A2 Derailment impacts: 5% is dangerous They say that only five percent of cars carry dangerous material, but1. Your evidence says 1.7 million cars contain nuclear material. That’s still a substantial risk of extinction. //JMa 2. Turn- The reason that this is so low is because of investments in infrastructure Christopher P.L. Barkan, Associate Professor and Director of the Railroad Engineering Program at the University of Illinois, and C. Tyler Dick, Graduate research assistant in Railroad Engineering at the University of Illinois, 2003, “Analysis of railroad derailment factors affecting hazardous materials transportation risk”, http://www.ltrc.lsu.edu/TRB_82/TRB2003-002429.pdf //JMa The US railroad mainline accident rate has declined by over 75% since 1980 (Figure 1) and the hazardous materials accidentcaused release rate has declined by nearly 90% (1,2,3). This improvement is the result of major capital investments in infrastructure and equipment, improved safety designs of tank cars (4), employee training efforts, and the development and implementation of new technology (5). Most of this improvement in safety took place in the 1980s, and although the downward trend in mainline accident rate continued through the 1990s, it declined at a lower rate and has leveled off in recent years (Figure 1). The occurrence of major accident-caused hazardous materials releases has declined to such an extent that identification and implementation of further safety improvements is much more challenging because there is less empirical information on which causes are contributing the greatest risk. 3.

Our argument is that no matter how safe the track is in the status quo, it will quickly deterioriate without constant investment which comes from coal, that’s Freeman and Kamps //JMa

4. Nuclear shipments by rail projected to increase US Government Accountability Office, “Rail Safety and Security: Some Actions Already Taken to Enhance Rail Security, but Risk-based Plan Needed,” Report to Congressional Requesters, April 2003 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03435.pdf The proposed plan to ship spent nuclear fuel, as soon as 2010 and most likely by rail, to the Yucca Mountain Repository in Nevada—the nation’s first long-term geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste—has raised concerns about the safety and security of possible transportation to this site.9 A second proposal to ship spent nuclear fuel to temporary storage in a private facility in Utah has heightened these concerns.10 Such shipments would substantially increase the volume of nuclear material transported in this country.11

5. Terrorism a. Derailment create a target for nuclear terrorist attack Kevin Kamps, Nuclear Information and Resource Service Office, 06/20/06, http://www.nirs.org/press/06-20-2006/1 //JMa Surrey Township, Michigan— Concerned citizen groups are raising questions about the nature of the radioactive wastes aboard a derailed train amidst conflicting press reports. The Associated Press first reported that the train, which derailed in the early morning hours of June 16 in Clare County, was hauling eight to ten railcars containing radioactive water used for cooling nuclear materials at Consumers Energy's Big Rock Point nuclear power plant in Charlevoix, Michigan. However, Consumers Energy spokesman Timothy Petrosky later told the Saginaw News that Big Rock no longer ships radioactive liquids, and its cargo aboard the derailed train consisted of radioactively contaminated concrete and soil. According to a spokesman from the State of Michigan Department of Environmental Quality's Waste and Hazardous Materials Division, the six rail cars carrying 42 "inter-modal" atomic waste containers from Big Rock are bound for a licensed radioactive waste dump in Clive, Utah. Clare County Sheriff's Department Emergency Services Division Sergeant William J. Larson told Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS) in a phone inquiry that tampering with the rails is suspected, and an investigation has been launched. "This raises serious concerns about the security of atomic waste shipments," said Kevin Kamps of NIRS. "High-level radioactive waste shipments from Big Rock that would travel this same rail route would be potentially catastrophic targets for sabotage or terrorist attack rolling through countless Michigan communities."

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A2 Derailment impacts: 5% is dangerous b. Terrorism leads to nuclear retaliation killing millions Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, 2004 [Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm] //JMa Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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AT: Infrastructure not key to Safety Investment in infrastructure stops nuclear derailments Christopher P.L. Barkan, Associate Professor and Director of the Railroad Engineering Program at the University of Illinois, and C. Tyler Dick, Graduate research assistant in Railroad Engineering at the University of Illinois, 2003, “Analysis of railroad derailment factors affecting hazardous materials transportation risk”, http://www.ltrc.lsu.edu/TRB_82/TRB2003-002429.pdf //JMa The US railroad mainline accident rate has declined by over 75% since 1980 (Figure 1) and the hazardous materials accidentcaused release rate has declined by nearly 90% (1,2,3). This improvement is the result of major capital investments in infrastructure and equipment, improved safety designs of tank cars (4), employee training efforts, and the development and implementation of new technology (5). Most of this improvement in safety took place in the 1980s, and although the downward trend in mainline accident rate continued through the 1990s, it declined at a lower rate and has leveled off in recent years (Figure 1). The occurrence of major accident-caused hazardous materials releases has declined to such an extent that identification and implementation of further safety improvements is much more challenging because there is less empirical information on which causes are contributing the greatest risk.

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2NC Short Overview The Railroad industry currently has enough steady income to constantly renew its infrastructure, that’s Roth. An increase in alternative energy reduces the demand for coal shipments – the backbone of the industry. This drop in demand kills profits, that’s the Association of American Railroads. These profits are necessary to maintain a constant renewal of railroad infrasture that’s Freeman. Deteriorating infrastructure will cause radioactive train derailments, that’s Kamps. --This leads to our external impacts:…

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