20080204

February 4, 2008

THE HIT LIST FOR 2008

WANTED

Wal-Mart Women

Rehab Republicans

Facebook Independents

Stay in the political “family” long enough and you will see hot voter target groups come and go faster than characters on The Sopranos get killed off.

SOCCER MOMS?

NASCAR DADS?

GET OUTTA HERE.

THEY’RE DEAD TO US.

Much like the FBI agents tailing mobsters, Public Opinion Strategies has been keeping tabs on the voter sub-groups we suspect will determine whether candidates end up being the Boss or are swimming with the fishes.

WAL-MART WOMEN 17% of all voters

If Tony Soprano’s job really was in waste disposal, then his wife might be in this category. Women who shop at Wal-Mart once a week or more tend to be lower income, less well educated, more likely to work in hourly wage jobs or be retired than their counterparts who primarily shop at Target.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS... Wal-Mart women are in rural and suburban areas, and are more likely to live in the South than any other region – in large part explaining their tendency to be more culturally conservative and more religious than women overall.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE... The quintessential swing voters, Wal-Mart women are more likely to identify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans (by a 14 point margin), but they supported President Bush in 2004 by a 14 point margin. They are extremely negative about the direction of the country, and due to their socio-economic roots, the economy will be important in their vote decision.

REHAB REPUBLICANS 11% of all voters

These voters are most likely to want to be in a witness protection program right now. Unhappy with the war in Iraq and/or disillusioned with President Bush, these voters are having a hard time dealing with the state of the GOP. Depending on the nominee, they may come back into the “family” or simply disappear.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS... These voters are much more moderate than the base of the party. While 76% of “strong” Republicans describe themselves as politically conservative, just 47% of rehab Republicans say the same.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE... These voters SAY they will vote for a Republican candidate for president when forced to choose in a ballot test on a poll. But the real question is whether they will show up to vote or not. Their interest in the 2008 election is a full 16 points lower than “strong” Republicans, and 21 points lower than “strong” Democrats.

FACEBOOK INDEPENDENTS 5% of all voters

These young turks are more likely to be urban, single, young and live in the increasingly important swing states of the Outer South and Mountain West. Defined by their technology prowess, these voters may see more campaign ads on YouTube and learn about candidates on Facebook.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS... Other than base Democrat sub-groups, Facebook Independents are one of the most likely voter groups to say the U.S. should get out of Iraq.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...

e-answers is a periodic publication of the latest trends in public opinion. For information please contact us at:

So much for loyalty. When given a match-up pitting a generic Democrat, GOP and Independent candidate for President, two-in-ten of these voters opt for the Independent. One of the most diverse sub-groups, they prefer Obama in a potential general election match-up, but might opt for a GOP candidate if Clinton is the Democratic nominee (Obama garners 19 points higher support levels than does Clinton among this sub-group in a match-up against potential GOP nominees).

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Be a goodfella. Public Opinion Strategies’ strategic approach to polling ensures your campaign or public policy effort will be “made.” See who else we’ve been keeping tabs on at www.pos.org/eanswers/

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Website: www.pos.org Contact: Rob Autry [email protected]

Data is based on combined national surveys of a total of N=1600 “likely” voters conducted in November 2007