2006 Scenarios On Energy Efficiency

I

EUROPEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT

Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

Directorate-General for Energy and Transport

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

EUROPEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

European Commission

This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the Directorate-General for Energy and Transport and represents that organisation’s views on energy facts, figures and projections. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commission’s or the Directorate-General’s views. Authors: Dr. L. Mantzos and Prof. P. Capros.

Legal Notice The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.

The manuscript was completed on 12 July 2006.

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Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 5 SCENARIOS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLES............................................................. 15 1.1.

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 15

1.2.

THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE......................................................................................................... 16

1.2.1.

EC policies towards energy efficiency and modelling approach................................................. 16

1.2.2.

“Energy efficiency” scenario results for EU-25.......................................................................... 18

1.3.

1.2.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................18

1.2.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................19

1.2.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................22

1.2.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................25

THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE .......................................................................................................... 26

1.3.1.

EC policies promoting renewable energy forms and modelling approach.................................. 26

1.3.2.

“High renewables” scenario results for EU-25 .......................................................................... 29

1.3.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................29

1.3.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................32

1.3.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................33

1.3.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................36

1.3.3. 1.4.

“12% renewables share in 2010” scenario results for EU-25 .................................................... 37

THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE .............................................................. 39

1.4.1.

Modelling approach..................................................................................................................... 39

1.4.2.

“Combined high renewables and efficiency” scenario results for EU-25................................... 39

1.4.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................39

1.4.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................41

1.4.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................43

1.4.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................45

1.4.3.

“Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” scenario results for EU-25............ 46

GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 49 APPENDIX 1: “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE RESULTS..................................................................... 53 SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 53 APPENDIX 2: “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE RESULTS........................................................................ 67 SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 67 APPENDIX 3: “12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010” CASE RESULTS.............................................. 81 SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 81 APPENDIX 4: “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE RESULTS ............. 95 SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 95 APPENDIX 5: “COMBINED 12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010 AND EFFICIENCY” CASE RESULTS......................................................................................................................................................... 109 SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)........................................... 109

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List of figures FIGURE 2-1: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 21 FIGURE 2-2: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 23 FIGURE 2-3: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 25 FIGURE 3-1: CHANGES IN PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY RENEWABLE ENERGY FORM IN EU25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 31 FIGURE 3-2: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 33 FIGURE 3-3: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 34 FIGURE 3-4: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 36 FIGURE 4-1: CHANGES IN PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY RENEWABLE ENERGY FORM IN EU25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 41 FIGURE 4-2: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 42 FIGURE 4-3: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 43 FIGURE 4-4: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 46

List of Tables TABLE 2-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 19 TABLE 2-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 19 TABLE 2-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 20 TABLE 2-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 24 TABLE 2-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE 25 TABLE 3-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 30 TABLE 3-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 31 TABLE 3-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 32 TABLE 3-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 35 TABLE 3-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE 36 TABLE 3-6: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY NEEDS IN THE EU-25 ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE “12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010” CASE 37 TABLE 4-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 40 TABLE 4-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 41 TABLE 4-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 42 TABLE 4-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 44 TABLE 4-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 45 TABLE 4-6: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY NEEDS IN THE EU-25 ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE “COMBINED 12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010 AND EFFICIENCY” CASE 47

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Executive Summary Energy efficiency and renewables are central to EU and Member States’ energy and climate policies as they contribute substantially towards reducing CO2 emissions, helping to meet EU’s international obligations, either through curbing energy demand or through providing alternative carbon free supplies. Similarly they improve energy security and can contribute to enhanced competitiveness. Energy efficiency, as set out in the 2005 Green Paper on energy efficiency,1 has become a cornerstone of EU energy policy contributing to all three main energy policy objectives: competitiveness, energy security and environment protection. The importance of energy efficiency and renewables policies is further emphasised in the recently published Green Paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy.2 Therefore the Commission has undertaken a number of policies and measures towards improving energy efficiency and increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources. The following alternative scenarios simulate the possible outcomes of strengthened policies at both Community and Member State levels to achieve better energy efficiency and a higher share of renewables. These scenarios illustrate possible alternative pathways for the evolution of the EU energy system in the horizon to 2030. For this purpose three different cases have been examined: •

The “Energy efficiency” case takes into account all energy efficiency policies tabled by the European Commission. The modelling assumes that through Community and national/local action energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs so that more efficient energy solution are chosen despite of higher initial costs overcoming also to a large extent issues related to lack of information.

•

The “High renewables” case assumes that additional incentives are provided both to energy consumers and energy producers so that the global indicative target of a 12% contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption in 2010 is reached. Furthermore, strengthening of these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards achieving a contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption close to 20% in 2020.

•

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of the two cases mentioned above, explores their aggregate effect on the evolution of the EU-25 energy system and allows for an in depth analysis of their possible synergies as well as any trade-offs.

These scenarios are distinct from the Baseline approach3, where the indicative targets, as set out in various Directives (e.g. renewables electricity Directive 2001/77, Directive 2003/30 on biofuels in transport) will not be necessarily met. The numerical values for these indicators are outcomes of the modelling; they reflect implemented policies rather than targets. In the following energy efficiency and renewables scenarios, the modelling starts from the assumption that agreed policies will be vigorously implemented in the Member States and that certain new targets on the overall share of renewables in 2020 will be broadly achieved. These scenarios explore the consequences of such achievements for all sectors of the energy economy and address also the issue of possible synergies and overlaps between policies on energy efficiency and on renewables.

1

2

3

Green Paper of the European Commission on Energy Efficiency “Doing more with less”, COM (2005) 265 final of 10 June 2005. Green Paper of the European Commission: “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”, COM (2006) 105 final of 08 March 2006. European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 – update 2005 (2006).

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In addition, two variants to the above cases have been examined, namely the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, in which additional incentives towards promoting renewable energy forms remain at 2010 levels up to 2030, and the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of the “Energy efficiency” case with those of the above mentioned renewables variant.

Energy efficiency case Assumption The Energy Efficiency Green Paper of 2005 stated that with today’s technology, it is possible to save around 20% of our energy consumption by an increase in energy efficiency on a costeffective basis. Several Directives have been adopted that will help to exploit large parts of this potential when fully implemented. The modelling for the “Energy efficiency” scenario assumes the full implementation of these Directives, notably the Directive on building performance and the Directive on end-use energy efficiency and energy services as well as energy efficiency improvements stemming from the eco-design Directive. As a result, efficiency improvements are more important in the household and services sector. In transport, capturing the existing high efficiency potentials for aviation would be facilitated by the inclusion of air transport into the European emission trading scheme. In addition cogeneration becomes much more important in the “Energy efficiency” case compared with Baseline. In the modelling of the “Energy efficiency” case, energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs taking advantage of cost-effective and energy efficient solutions in their purchase and investment choices. Energy efficiency labelling is instrumental in this respect. Other ongoing action at EU, national and local level, such as RTD policies, information campaigns, regional and cohesion policy as well as transport policy contribute to better energy efficiency. The other assumptions, such as population, GDP and sectoral development as well as energy import prices remain the same as in the Baseline. With the same GDP and sectoral production, any improvements in energy intensity (the quotient of energy consumption and GDP) from the modelling of the “Energy efficiency” case can be attributed to improved energy efficiency as distinct from effects stemming from structural change of the economy. Overall results The energy efficiency policies and measures of the “Energy efficiency” case show substantial results in terms of curbing energy demand. Total EU-25 energy consumption in the “Energy efficiency” case comes virtually back to the 2000 level in 2020 (there is just a marginal increase of 0.5 % over 20 years from 1653 Mtoe in 2000 to 1662 Mtoe in 2020). In 2030, total energy consumption would be even as low as it had been in 1990 (there would be even a slight decrease of 0.8% over 40 years to reach 1544 Mtoe in 2030). This is a reversal of the trend towards ever increasing energy consumption seen for many decades. This development is the more remarkable as GDP is expected to continue growing by 2% per year on average. The increase in economic activity between 2000 and 2020 by a total 53% would be fuelled with essentially the same amount of energy. Over the period 2000 to 2030, there would be even a decline of energy consumption by 7% with GDP increasing by 79%. Consequently, energy intensity would decrease by 2.1% pa between 2000 and 2020 (even 2.2% pa between 2000 and 2030). These are 0.6 percentage points per year more than in the Baseline (0.7 percentage points for the period to 2030), which is due to energy efficiency policies and measures. Demand for all energy forms declines compared to Baseline. The biggest fall is projected for nuclear and solid fuels, reaching -35.0% and -34.2% respectively in 2030 compared to Baseline. The main reason for this is the marked slowdown in electricity demand growth, due to greater energy efficiency, and the higher exploitation of co-generation in the power generation sector. Nuclear is exclusively used for electricity generation and solid fuels are a major input for power

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stations. Nuclear is no option for CHP, which will be predominantly based on natural gas given the size of cogeneration units. As a result, both nuclear and solid fuels lose market share in primary energy needs. On the contrary, other energy forms gain market shares in total energy consumption (compared with Baseline) with the most significant increase in the long run occurring for oil, the share of which reaches 36.9% in 2030 (+3.1 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2030), followed by renewables (13.3% in 2030; +1.1 percentage points from Baseline levels) and natural gas (28.3% in 2030; +1.0 percentage points from Baseline levels). Gross energy consumption by fuel and energy and carbon intensities: Energy Efficiency case versus Baseline mtoe

Energy/carbon intensity 1990=100

2000

100

1800

renewables

1600

80 nuclear

1400 1200

60

1000

natural gas oil

800

40

solids

600 20

400

carbon intensity energy intensity

200 0

0 1990

2000

2010

Baseline

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Energy efficiency case

Better energy efficiency makes a small contribution towards increasing the share of renewables in the medium and long term (about one percentage point more) due to reduced overall energy demand. On the other hand, through limiting the growth of electricity demand, energy efficiency curtails somewhat the potential for electricity generation from renewables (notably wind). As a result of these changes in the fuel mix, carbon intensity (CO2 emissions divided by energy consumption) develops slightly more favorable than in the Baseline. On the other hand, there is a substantial improvement in energy intensity compared with Baseline and therefore CO2 emissions are much lower in the “Energy efficiency” case (3% below Baseline in 2010 and even 20% lower in 2030). Compared with the Kyoto base-year 1990, CO2 emissions come back to the 1990 level in 2010 and decrease thereafter to reach minus 16% in 2030, after having reached minus 10% in 2020. Following demand reduction through energy efficiency measures, indigenous energy production decreases - however, at a somewhat slower pace than gross energy consumption up to 2020. Consequently the import dependency of the EU drops slightly below baseline levels (e.g. 63.1% in 2020 instead of 63.8% in the Baseline). Given that energy efficiency also reduces strongly electricity demand produced from nuclear and (indigenous) solid fuels, especially in the long term, there is a slight increase in import dependency in 2030 (65.5% in the efficiency case compared with 64.9% in the Baseline). Final energy demand develops at a significantly slower pace compared to the Baseline scenario under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions (-2.6% in 2010, -11.5% in 2020 and -15.7% in 2030). The biggest decline occurs in the tertiary sector, where energy consumption is 31.4% lower than in the Baseline in 2030. Energy needs in the residential and transport sectors are also projected to decrease significantly from Baseline levels (-26.0% and -10.9% in 2030

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respectively) whereas the impact of the policies considered in this case is rather limited in industry (-0.6% in 2010, -2.4% in 2030). The availability of more efficient new vehicle technologies, combined with greater incentives to consumers that encourage better understanding of technology costs, are the key drivers for the decline in transport sector energy requirements (-2.1% in 2010, -10.9% in 2030). Energy efficiency improves further compared with Baseline for all modes, especially for aviation and trucks. By comparison efficiency improvements over Baseline are somewhat smaller for passenger cars as the CO2 agreement with the European car industry, which is essentially a fuel efficiency agreement, is already included in the Baseline. The focus of efficiency policies towards improvements in buildings’ thermal integrity and demand side management, but also the labelling of electric appliances, is reflected in the projected changes in tertiary and household sector demand. The structure of energy demand in services and households is quite similar because the bulk of energy consumption takes place in buildings (like office blocks, hospitals, schools, dwellings etc) and for the same purposes, namely heating, cooling, cooking, lighting and appliances. The decline is significantly higher for consumption by electric appliances (-50.4% in 2030 for the tertiary sector; -33.0% in households) reflecting the large scope for action towards more rational use of energy and the benefits of appliance labelling. As a result electricity demand in both sectors exhibits the largest decline among all energy forms over the projection period. Besides considerably more cogeneration, the supply side shifts towards more efficient technologies in the long run driven by faster technological progress especially in power generation, which leads to improvements in terms of new equipment efficiency. Overall, the “Energy efficiency” case gives rise to a much more favourable development compared to the Baseline scenario. Primary energy needs decline significantly (-18.6% compared to the Baseline in 2030), so that in 2030 total energy consumption would be as low as it had been in 1990. In 2020, total energy needs would have come back to the level of 2000. However, the import dependency of the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight worsening from Baseline levels (65.5% in 2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as the significant decline of electricity requirements in the long term limits the need for new investment in nuclear power plants and the come back of solids in power generation. On the other hand changes in the fuel mix allow for a further improvement of carbon intensity in the EU-25 energy system, which in combination to the decreasing energy requirements brings about a much more favourable development in terms of CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions in 2010 come back to their 1990 level instead of increasing by 3% in the Baseline. In 2020, emissions are 10% below the 1990 level and in 2030 CO2 emissions are projected to reach minus 16 % below the 1990 level – a substantial improvement compared to an increase of CO2 emissions by +5% from 1990 to 2030 in the Baseline scenario.

“High renewables” case Assumptions The EU has been supporting renewable energy sources for some time notably through Directives on electricity from renewables and on biofuels. The Communication on “The share of renewable energy in the EU” of 2004 and the Biomass Action Plan of 2005 have underlined the key role of renewables in ensuring sustainable energy supplies for the Community, reinforcing social and economic cohesion, developing European industry and contributing to job creation. The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the process of integrating the environment into energy policy will both underpin a greater role of renewables. The “High renewables” scenario includes not only the implementation of the renewables electricity and the biofuels Directives, but it also assumes a significant biomass/waste contribution especially in industry and considerable penetration of solar water heating in the household and tertiary sectors.

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The long-standing objective to reach a renewables share of 12% in gross energy consumption may be complemented by a target for 2015 and/or 2020. The conclusions of the European Council of March 2006 mention a share of renewables of 15% in 2015, and a share of 20% for 2020 is under discussion. The “High renewables” scenario has an orientation to come close to these shares under discussion, starting from the achievement of a renewables share of 12% in 2010. Apart from the assumptions on much stronger support for renewables, all other assumptions (e.g. GDP, energy import prices, etc) remain unchanged from Baseline. Overall results Strong action on renewables in the “High renewables” case lead to significant changes in the future evolution of the fuel mix while overall primary energy demand remains essentially unchanged from Baseline levels in 2010, exhibiting a limited decline thereafter of -1.8% below the Baseline in 2030. In this scenario energy efficiency follows Baseline trends, thus the limited further energy intensity gains occurring in the long run reflect mainly the higher exploitation of wind and other intermittent renewables (with an efficiency of 100% according to Eurostat conventions4). However, there are significant changes in the fuel mix with demand for renewables growing at rates well above those in the Baseline scenario (5.2% pa in 2000-2030 compared to 3.0% pa in the Baseline), a growth that occurs to the detriment of all other energy forms. In 2010, renewables account for 11.6% of primary energy needs (a rise of +3.6 percentage points from Baseline levels). This increase on top of Baseline occurs mainly to the detriment of solid fuels (accounting for 14.2% of primary energy needs, -1.6 percentage points from Baseline levels) as well as oil and gas (34.9% and 24.5%, respectively, both declining by -1.0 percentage point compared to the Baseline). Nuclear remains unchanged as no investment decisions on new nuclear would be affected in the short term. Shares in gross energy consumption in the “High renewables” case in EU-25 (in %): Change from Baseline 2000

2010

2020

2030

Solids

18.5

14.2

10.5

Oil

38.4

35.9

Natural gas

22.8

Nuclear Renewables

2010

2020

2030

10.7

-1.6

-3.3

-4.7

33.8

31.4

-1.0

-1.7

-2.4

24.5

25.8

26.2

-1.0

-2.3

-1.1

14.4

13.7

10.5

7.5

0.0

-1.6

-3.6

5.8

11.6

19.3

24.0

+3.6

+8.9

+11.8

In 2020, the use of renewables in the EU-25 energy system increases by 84% from Baseline levels with their share reaching 19.3% compared to 10.4% in the Baseline scenario. An even higher renewables share can be achieved with the same intensity of renewables promotion if renewables policies are combined with energy efficiency policies (this case is developed further below). Demand for solid fuels exhibits again the strongest decline from Baseline levels (24.5%) followed by nuclear (-14.1%), natural gas (-8.9%) and oil (-5.8%). In 2020 solid fuels account for 10.5% of primary energy needs, oil for 33.8%, gas for 25.8% and nuclear for 10.5% (all loosing significant market shares to renewables in comparison with the Baseline scenario). The further strengthening of promoting policies for renewables up to 2030 leads to an increase of the renewables share reaching 24.0% (+11.8 percentage point from Baseline). This further

4

According to Eurostat conventions electricity generation from renewables such as wind, solar and hydro has an efficiency of 100%.

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growth for renewables strongly affects nuclear energy and solid fuels (-33.5% and -31.8% respectively compared to Baseline). The effects on liquid fuels (-8.6%) and natural gas (-5.8%) are less pronounced. The share of nuclear falls to 7.5%. Nevertheless, the combined share of carbon free and indigenous fuels (renewables plus nuclear) reaches almost one third in 2030 compared with less than a quarter under Baseline conditions. The higher exploitation of biomass and waste is the key driver for the substantial increase of the renewables share accounting for about 70% of incremental renewables demand. Biomass/waste deployment in 2030 is twice as high as in the Baseline. Besides the higher utilisation of biomass and waste in the power generation sector, the significant increase of the biofuels share in gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector contributes to this increase. A substantial increase in relative terms is also projected for the long-term contribution of solar energy and geothermal heat. The high penetration of wind energy, already achieved in the Baseline, is further enhanced, in the “High renewables” case with the increase for wind energy reaching 45.5% in 2030 from Baseline levels (63.8% in 2020). The share of renewables (including waste) in electricity generation increases to 23.5% in 2010, 39.4% in 2020 and 45.6% in 2030 (5.4, 16.0 and 18.0 percentage points above Baseline levels, respectively). Biomass and waste account for 40.3% of renewable electricity in 2030, wind energy for 33.0% and hydro for 20.9% (from 18.3%, 33.1% and 46.0% respectively in 2010). The biofuels share in petrol and diesel consumption rises to 6.4% in 2010, to 14.2% in 2020 and to 19.1% in 2030. These changes in the fuel mix entail significant improvements in carbon intensity (-5.4% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -13.7% in 2030). Along with some improvements in energy intensity, mainly due to the deployment of highly efficient renewables that replace less efficient fossil and nuclear technologies, this leads to pronounced reductions in CO2 emissions below Baseline levels (up to -15.2% in 2030). CO2 emissions remain below the 1990 level throughout the projections period reaching minus 3% in 2010, minus 9% in 2020 and minus 11% in 2030. Following much higher renewables deployment and despite a certain decline in nuclear and fossil fuel production, indigenous energy supplies are higher in the “High renewables” case than in the Baseline. Consequently, import dependency falls below Baseline level so that the increase of import dependency is considerably moderated with strong renewables promotion. Import dependency in 2010 is limited to 52% - close to the current level – and increases only somewhat to reach 58% in both 2020 and 2030 instead of 64% and 65% in 2020 and 2030 respectively in the Baseline.

Combined high renewables and efficiency case A higher renewables share is also supported by measures that reduce energy consumption through better energy efficiency. In the “combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the assumptions of both cases are introduced simultaneously in the modelling in order to explore the synergies and possible overlaps between both main policy areas. All other assumptions remain the same as in the Baseline. Primary energy needs in 2010 in the combined case are projected 3% below Baseline levels. This decrease is even more pronounced in the long run (-20% in 2030). Beyond 2010, total energy consumption declines not only relative to Baseline but also in absolute terms (-0.7% pa in 20102030). In 2030, total energy requirements would be 2.5% lower than they had been in 1990 exceeding even slightly the decrease in the pure “Energy efficiency” case reflecting the higher transformation efficiency of e.g. wind in power generation.

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Gross energy consumption by fuel and energy and carbon intensities: Combined energy efficiency and high renewables case versus Baseline mtoe

Energy/carbon intensity 1990=100

2000

100

1800

renewables

1600

80 nuclear

1400 1200

60

1000

natural gas oil

40

800

solids

600 20

400

carbon intensity energy intensity

200 0

0 1990

2000

2010

Baseline

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Combined efficiency and high renewables case

Lower energy requirements combined with renewables policies allow for a growth of the renewables share in primary energy needs at rates above those projected in the “High renewables” case, despite the less pronounced growth of renewables consumption in absolute terms (reaching 394 Mtoe in 2030 compared to 446 Mtoe in the “High renewables” case). Thus, in 2010 renewables are projected to account for 11.9% of primary energy needs and this share rises further to 19.9% in 2020 and reaches 25.9% in 2030 (compared with 11.6%, 19.3% and 24%, respectively, in the “High renewables” case). Demand for all other energy forms is projected to decline from Baseline levels with the impacts in the short run being more pronounced for solids and natural gas (-14.2% and -9.6% respectively from Baseline levels in 2010). In the long run, nuclear (-65.1% from Baseline levels in 2030) and solids (-57.5%) decline most following strong combined policies on energy efficiency and renewables. The substantial decline in nuclear, following the substantial reduction below Baseline in electricity demand due to better energy efficiency, limits the share of carbon free energy forms in primary energy needs to 30.8% in 2030, whereas in the “High renewables” case the share of carbon free energy forms increased to 31.5% in 2030. In power generation, renewables reach a particular high share as a result of the combined effect of strong policies on renewables and on energy efficiency, which reduce electricity production by 26% below Baseline in 2030; the level of power generation in 2030 is only slightly higher than that of today. Consequently, the renewables share (including waste) in power generation in the combined case exceeds that in the pure high renewables scenario. The renewables contribution to power generation increases to 24.8% in 2020 and reaches 43.1% in 2020. In 2030, renewables would account for even 55.7% of electricity generation, compared with 46% in the pure renewables case. Most of this would come from biomass-waste (22.4% share in 2030), while the wind share amounts to 18.5%, the hydro share to 12.3% and solar, tidal, geothermal account for 2.5%. Fossil fuels and nuclear would lose market shares. The nuclear share would further fall to 8.9% in 2030, while gas accounts for 18.9%, solid fuels for 12.7 and oil for 3.9%.

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Electricity generation in the Combined high renewables and efficiency case compared with Baseline (in TWh) 4400 oil

4000 3600

gas

3200 solids 2800 nuclear

2400 2000

other RES

1600 wind 1200 biomass-waste

800 400

hydro

0 Baseline

2010

Combined case

Baseline

combined case

2030

Better energy efficiency in the combined case leads also to slightly higher biofuels penetration in transport compared with the isolated high renewables case. The share of biofuels in petrol and diesel reaches 6.4% in 2010, 15.2% in 2020 and 20.9% in 2030. Carbon intensity of the EU-25 energy system improves by up to 16% from Baseline levels in 2030 as a result of the changes in the fuel mix. In combination with the much lower energy requirements thanks to better energy efficiency, this leads to a strong decline of CO2 emissions, which are projected to decrease by 9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and by even 32.5% in 2030. Compared to the 1990 level, CO2 emissions fall by 7% in 2010, by 21% in 2020 and by 29% in 2030. Pursuing simultaneously strong policies towards energy efficiency and renewables allows for a much more favourable development of CO2 emissions, especially in the long run. In the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, import dependency is also projected to decrease markedly from Baseline levels. The EU dependency on imports stays at current levels up to 2010 (reaching 51%) with the further increase limited to 58% in 2020 and 59% in 2030 instead of rising to 65% under Baseline developments. Overall, the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case reveals a much more favourable EU-25 energy system outlook with energy requirements declining by 2030 to levels slightly below those observed in 1990. The share of renewables in gross inland consumption reaches 15% in 2015, 20% in 2020 and 26% in 2030. CO2 emissions remain well below the 1990 level over the whole projection period (-6.7% in 2010, -21.4% in 2020 and -29.3% in 2030) contributing substantially to Kyoto objectives for 2010 and possible more ambitious ones for later periods. Furthermore, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case import dependency improves from Baseline levels reaching 59.2% in 2030 (5.7 percentage points below Baseline levels).

Variants The modelling includes also a variant, in which a 12% renewables share will be reached in 2010. In this variant, the level of support for reaching this renewables outcome is kept constant for the rest of the projection period and the effects of maintaining this level of supporting policies are investigated. Some salient results are: the further increase of the renewables share to reach 20% in 2030, the reduction of CO2 emissions to minus 7% below the 1990 level in 2030 and the more limited increase of import dependency to 60% in 2030, which are 5 percentage points less than in the Baseline.

12

This “12% renewables in 2010” case was also combined with the “Energy efficiency” case producing even more pronounced effects in terms of increasing renewables shares and in particular declining CO2 emissions, which fall 26% below the 1990 level thanks to better energy efficiency combined with promotional policies on renewables.

13

14

Scenarios on Energy Efficiency and Renewables 1.1.

Introduction Energy efficiency and renewables have become mainstream policy lines over the last few years following the EC Green Paper of 2000 on energy security.5 The Green Paper recognised that - to enhance energy security and contribute to sustainable development in the EU - there exists wider scope for action on the demand side, i.e. energy efficiency, compared with supply side action. Energy efficiency, as set out in the 2005 Green Paper on energy efficiency,6 has become a cornerstone of EU energy policy contributing to all three main energy policy objectives: competitiveness, energy security and environment protection. The importance of energy efficiency and renewables policies is further emphasised in the recently published EC Green Paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy.7 Enhanced penetration of renewables will contribute both to better energy security and reduced CO2 emissions and therefore help to meet the EU’s international obligations. In that direction the European Commission has adopted a number of policies (expressed through directives and action plans) towards improving energy efficiency in the EU energy system and increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in satisfying primary energy needs. In the Baseline scenario8 the approach retained was that the indicative targets, as set out in various EC Directives (renewables electricity Directive 2001/77, Directive 2003/30 on renewable energy in transport and any additional followup Directives etc.) will not be necessarily met. The numerical values for these indicators are outcomes of the modelling; they reflect implemented policies rather than targets. The following alternative scenarios simulate the possible outcome of strengthened policies at both Community and Member State levels to achieve greater energy efficiency and a higher share of renewables. These scenarios illustrate possible alternative pathways for the evolution of the EU energy system in the horizon to 2030. For this purpose three different cases have been examined: •

The “Energy efficiency” case takes into account all energy efficiency policies tabled by the European Commission. The modelling assumes that through Community and national/local action energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs so that more efficient energy solution are chosen despite of higher initial costs overcoming also to a large extent issues related to lack of information.

•

The “High renewables” case assumes that additional incentives are provided both to energy consumers and energy producers so that the global indicative target of a 12% contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption

5

Green Paper of the European Commission: “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply”, COM (2000) 769 final of 29 November 2000.

6

Green Paper of the European Commission on Energy Efficiency “Doring more with less”, COM (2005) 265 final of 10 June 2005.

7

Green Paper of the European Commission: “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”, COM (2006) 105 final of 08 March 2006.

8

European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 –update 2005 (2006).

15

by 2010, referred to in the renewables electricity Directive,9 is reached. Furthermore, strengthening of these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards achieving a contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption close to 20% by 2020. •

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of the two cases discussed above, explores their aggregate effect on the evolution of the EU-25 energy system and allows for an in depth analysis of their possible synergies as well as any trade-offs.

In addition, two variants to the above cases have been examined, namely the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, in which additional incentives towards promoting renewable energy forms remain at 2010 levels in the horizon to 2030, and the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case which combines the assumptions of the “Energy efficiency” case with those of the above mentioned renewables variant. In chapters 2 to 4, the impacts of the “Energy efficiency”, the “High renewables” and the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” cases on the future evolution of the EU-25 energy system are discussed in detail. A briefer discussion of the impacts of the “12% renewables share in 2010” and the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” cases is also provided in chapter 3 and 4 respectively.

1.2.

The “Energy efficiency” case 1.2.1. EC policies towards energy efficiency and modelling approach

The Energy Efficiency Green Paper of 2005 stated that with today’s technology, it is possible to save around 20% of our energy consumption by an increase in energy efficiency on a cost-effective basis. Energy efficiency brings significant savings on household energy bills and thus has a direct impact on every-day lives of all European citizens. Several Directives have been adopted that will help to exploit large parts of this potential when fully implemented. These Directives include the buildings Directive 10 of 2002, the CHP Directive 11 of 2004, the eco-design Directive 12 of 2005 and the Directive on enduse energy efficiency and energy services 13 of 2006, and various Directives on energy labelling. The effects of the implementation of these Directives in the Member States will take some time to come to the fore, but it is expected that full implementation will provide important results taking into account that ongoing energy efficiency programmes

9

Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Promotion of Electricity Produced from Renewable Energy Sources in the Internal Electricity Market. Brussels, 27 September 2001. Also at: http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2001/l_283/l_28320011027en00330040.pdf 10

Directive 2002/91/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on the energy performance of buildings of 16 December 2002; Official Journal of the European Communities L1/65 of 4 January 2003.

11

Directive 2004/8/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market and amending Directive 92/42/EEC, Official Journal L 052, 21/02/2004

12

Directive 2005/32/EC establishing a framework for the setting of eco-design requirements for energy-using products of 6 July 2005

13

Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services and repealing Council Directive 93/76/EEC of 5 April 2006

16

at EU and Member States level and other “soft” measures will also contribute to better energy efficiency. Taking into account all these agreed energy efficiency action and having regard to ongoing Climate Change activities with positive repercussions on energy efficiency as well as the Action Plan to Improve Energy Efficiency in the European Community14 presented by the European Commission in 2000, the following energy efficiency scenario shows a development that exploits large parts of the above mentioned potential for energy efficiency in the EU. In the absence of pertinent policy action, better energy efficiency is hampered by a large number of barriers to investment. These barriers include energy prices that still do not accurately reflect environmental externalities. There is lack of sufficient information on the use of cost-effective and energy-efficient technology. There are also numerous institutional and legal barriers. One example is the continued practice of selling energy in the form of kWh instead of as energy services (e.g. efficient heating and cooling, lighting and motive power) which is what the energy consumer ultimately wants. There are also many different technical barriers to energy efficiency, including the lack of harmonised and standardised components. Another important technical barrier is the lack of appropriate ‘active’ distribution and transmission infrastructures, to permit effective integration of greater volumes of small-scale, local generation. Financial barriers also exist including the short paybacks required for many demand-side investments compared with those for energy production. The above mentioned Directives and other measures address these barriers. The EU Emission Trading Scheme and its possible extension to aviation deals with market based internalising environmental externalities. Information campaigns and energy labelling help overcoming the information and awareness problems. Institutional and legal barriers are addressed in the various Directives for buildings, energy efficiency in end-use and also for CHP. The continued practice of selling energy in form of kWh instead as energy services is addressed in the Directive on end-use energy efficiency and end services. The modelling for the energy efficiency scenario assumes the full implementation of the Directives on building performance and the Directive of end-use energy efficiency and energy services as well as energy efficiency improvements stemming from the ecodesign Directive. As a result, efficiency improvements are more important in the household and services sector. In transport, capturing the existing high efficiency potentials for aviation would be facilitated by the inclusion of air transport into the European emission trading scheme. In addition cogeneration becomes much more important in the efficiency case compared with baseline. In the modelling of the “Energy efficiency” case, energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs taking advantage of cost-effective and energy efficient solutions in their purchase and investment choices. Energy efficiency labelling is instrumental in this respect. Other ongoing action at EU, national and local level, such as RTD policies, regional and cohesion policy as well as transport policy contribute to better energy efficiency. The “Energy efficiency” case investigates the effects of actions along these lines focusing on those actions that can be modelled. The modelling analysis quantifies expected results of energy efficiency action in areas such as building standards and certification, inspection of boilers and vehicles, correct metering and billing of energy consumption, promoting energy services, energy audits in industry, energy efficient public procurement, CHP, fuel efficiency in transport, labelling, etc. The modelling

14

Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM (2000) 247 final of 26 April 2000.

17

includes in particular a considerably improved perception of real costs of energy, which leads to the adoption of more energy efficient solutions by economic actors. It is assumed that the policies would be implemented vigorously in the Member States. Useful energy (energy services such as heat, light, cooling, motion, communication) is supplied in a more efficient way following consumer choices based on perceived costs that take into account more fully the advantages of higher energy efficiency. Moreover, energy related equipment has somewhat better efficiency characteristics (compared with Baseline) brought about by e.g. efficiency standards that force the least efficient energy consuming items out of the market. Improvements in terms of building construction lead to significant gains in thermal integrity and reduced energy requirements. In addition to such improvements on the demand side, the “Energy efficiency” case also incorporates improvements on the supply side. The use of co-generated steam and electricity is encouraged, resulting in higher shares of CHP in electricity and steam generation following the Directive on the promotion of cogeneration. Other than more cogeneration, the supply side also shifts towards more efficient equipment in the long run driven by faster technological progress. This leads to higher efficiency and lower equipment costs compared with the Baseline.

1.2.2. “Energy efficiency” scenario results for EU-2515 1.2.2.1. Overview of main results Modelling the above energy efficiency policies and measures leads to a significantly different evolution of the EU-25 energy system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. In 2010, primary energy needs in the “Energy efficiency” case are projected to be 2.3% below Baseline levels. This decrease becomes more pronounced in the long run reaching -11.9% in 2020 and -18.6% in 2030 (see Table 1.2-1). Beyond 2010 total energy consumption is projected to decline by -0.7% pa over the period 2010 to 2030. In 2030 total EU-25 energy consumption in the “Energy efficiency” case is even lower in absolute terms than it had been in 1990 (-0.9% from 1990 levels, -6.7% below 2000 levels). Energy intensity decreases at the same rates given that no changes in GDP have been assumed. Moreover, given that the sectoral production patterns also remain unchanged in both the “Energy efficiency” case and the Baseline, these energy intensity gains can be attributed to energy efficiency measures. Energy intensity improves by 0.7 percentage points more per year than in the Baseline to reach 2.2% pa up to 2030. Demand for all energy forms declines compared to Baseline. The biggest fall is projected for nuclear and solid fuels, reaching -35.0% and -34.2% respectively in 2030 compared to Baseline. As a result both these energy forms lose market share in primary energy needs. The slowdown in electricity demand growth due to greater energy efficiency and the higher exploitation of co-generation options in the power generation sector are the key drivers for this result. Nuclear is exclusively used for electricity generation and solid fuels are a major input for power stations. Nuclear is no option for CHP, which will be predominantly based on natural gas given the size of cogeneration units. On the contrary, other energy forms gain market shares in total energy consumption (compared with Baseline) with the most significant increase in the long run occurring for liquid fuels, the share of which reaches 36.9% in 2030 (+3.1 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2030), followed by renewable energy forms (13.3% in 2030; +1.1 percentage points from Baseline levels) and natural gas (28.3% in 2030; +1.0 percentage points from Baseline levels).

15

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in Appendix 1.

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Table 1.2-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case Mtoe Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable En. Sources Total EU-15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 306.5 634.7 376.3 237.7 96.5 1653.8 1456.9 196.9 3674.1 3127.0 547.1

2010 279.2 655.0 446.9 248.8 138.2 1770.3 1551.3 219.0 3775.3 3202.4 572.9

% change from baseline 2020 214.3 606.7 462.8 200.6 175.2 1661.7 1438.4 223.2 3404.1 2866.8 537.3

2030 192.8 569.8 436.9 137.1 204.9 1543.5 1320.7 222.8 3156.3 2641.5 514.8

2010 -2.7 -2.1 -3.3 0.0 -3.9 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -3.1

2020 -17.4 -9.4 -12.6 -12.3 -10.4 -11.9 -11.4 -14.6 -13.4 -13.2 -14.4

2030 -34.2 -11.0 -15.6 -35.0 -11.2 -18.6 -17.9 -22.3 -20.2 -20.2 -20.1

The combined effect of lower energy demand and changes in the fuel mix is clearly reflected in the projected trend in CO2 emissions. In 2010 CO2 emissions are projected to come back to the 1990 levels (compared to a +2.8% growth from 1990 levels in the Baseline scenario). Furthermore, CO2 emissions are projected to experience a strong decline in the period to 2030, falling -16.4% from 1990 levels. This is a substantial improvement compared to Baseline developments (+4.7 in 2030 from 1990 levels). Thus, in addition to pronounced energy intensity gains, the “Energy efficiency” case is further characterised by significant carbon intensity gains in comparison to the Baseline scenario. This is especially so in the long run, as carbon intensity is 2.0% below Baseline in 2030 compared with an improvement of 0.4% from Baseline in 2010. Table 1.2-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case % Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 30.8 76.4 49.6 47.2 49.5 30.1

2010 45.3 83.4 61.9 54.5 56.1 42.9

2020 50.1 92.2 78.8 63.1 64.9 51.5

2030 54.2 93.1 82.0 65.5 67.5 52.9

percentage points difference from baseline 2010 2020 2030 -0.8 0.6 -4.8 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -2.6 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.7 -1.1 -0.6 -0.8

However, in the “Energy efficiency” case import dependency in the long run is projected to be slightly higher compared to the Baseline scenario (+0.6 percentage points in 2030, see Table 1.2-2) as the lower exploitation of indigenous energy sources, such as solid fuels and nuclear energy, which decrease most, more than counterbalances the decline in primary energy needs. However, this is not the case for the short to medium term with import dependency being 0.5 percentage points lower than in the Baseline scenario in 2010 and 0.4 percentage points lower in 2020. 1.2.2.2. Final energy demand Energy requirements on the demand side of the EU-25 energy system develop at a significantly slower pace compared to the Baseline scenario under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions (-2.6% in 2010, -11.5% in 2020 and -15.7% in 2030). The biggest decline occurs in the tertiary sector, where energy consumption is 31.4% lower than in the Baselines in 2030 (see Table 1.2-3). Energy needs in the residential and transport sectors are also projected to decline significantly from Baseline levels (-26.0% and -10.9% in 2030 respectively) whereas the impact of the policies considered in this case is rather limited in industry (-0.6% in 2010, -2.4% in 2030).

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Table 1.2-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case Mtoe Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS

Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000 330.1 273.3 159.0 333.0 1095.4 970.7 124.7

2010 2020 354.1 370.5 302.3 279.9 175.9 166.1 373.0 367.7 1205.3 1184.2 1058.6 1026.7 146.7 157.5 Mt CO2 emissions

2030 382.3 260.0 154.6 358.4 1155.4 989.9 165.5

2010 2020 2030 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -3.1 -17.4 -26.0 -6.7 -21.6 -31.4 -2.1 -9.3 -10.9 -2.6 -11.5 -15.7 -2.6 -11.1 -15.0 -3.0 -14.1 -19.9 % change from baseline

2000 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9 2234.3 1985.3 249.0

2010 576.3 468.2 246.6 1050.9 2341.9 2066.5 275.5

2030 558.0 372.5 221.1 962.8 2114.3 1819.9 294.4

2010 -0.1 -3.0 -5.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2

2020 568.8 414.4 232.9 1002.8 2218.9 1935.4 283.5

2020 -4.4 -16.3 -15.6 -10.1 -10.6 -10.5 -11.3

The limited energy intensity gains in industrial sectors are partly explained by the fact that macro-economic assumptions remain unchanged from Baseline levels, i.e. no further changes towards less energy intensive activities is included in the assumptions for this policy case. In addition, EU-25 industry already experiences significant energy intensity gains under Baseline assumptions (7.8% in 2000-2010, 30.2% in 2000-2030). These gains arise through industrial restructuring but also by adoption of more efficient production techniques. Thus there is only limited scope for further improvements. CO2 emissions from EU-25 industry are projected to follow a similar pace of decline (-0.1% in 2010, -2.1% in 2030) to that of energy demand with changes in the fuel mix leading, however, to a slight worsening of carbon intensity compared to the Baseline scenario. The focus of efficiency policies towards improvements in buildings’ thermal integrity and demand side management, but also the labelling of electric appliances, is reflected in the projected changes in tertiary and household sector demand. The structure of energy demand in services and households is quite similar because the bulk of energy consumption takes place in buildings (like office blocks, hospitals, schools, dwellings etc) and for the same purposes, namely heating, cooling, cooking, lighting and appliances. The technologies determining energy efficiency in services and households are also largely the same. However, differences in terms of energy related equipment size, especially for heating and cooling purposes, results in significant differences as regards consumers’ behaviour. The average size of this equipment for a government building or an office block is significantly larger than that for a dwelling. Consequently, technologies that benefit from economies of scale in energy use are much more likely to be adopted in the services sector than by households. In addition, decisions to invest in energy efficiency are taken by firms in the tertiary sector but by individual people (or house builders) in the household sector. Their perceptions of capital costs and opportunity costs of capital naturally differ, in a way that investment in energy efficiency is often more easily adopted by firms than by individuals. The above factors explain the higher response of the tertiary sector in comparison to households to the introduction of the policies examined here. Energy needs for heating purposes in 2030 decline by -27.8% from Baseline levels in the tertiary sector and by 24.1% in households. The decline is significantly higher for consumption by electric appliances (-50.4% in 2030 for the tertiary sector; -33.0% in households) reflecting the large scope for action towards more rational use of energy and the benefits of appliance

20

2030 -2.1 -23.5 -21.6 -11.9 -13.0 -12.9 -14.0

labelling. As a result electricity demand in both sectors exhibits the largest decline among all energy forms over the projection period. But electricity’s lower market share in total energy needs leads to a worsening of carbon intensity both in the tertiary and the households sectors, as CO2 emissions related to electricity are attributed to the power generation sector. Thus, the projected decline in CO2 emissions in 2030 is limited to 21.6% below Baseline levels in the tertiary sector and -23.5% in households. The availability of more efficient new vehicle technologies, combined with greater incentives to consumers that encourage better understanding of technology costs, are the key drivers for the decline in transport sector energy requirements (-2.1% in 2010, 10.9% in 2030). Energy efficiency improves further compared with Baseline for all modes, especially for aviation and trucks. By comparison efficiency improvements over Baseline are somewhat smaller for passenger cars as the CO2 agreement with the European car industry, which is essentially a fuel efficiency agreement, is already included in the Baseline. The fall in CO2 emissions is even more pronounced in the long run (-2.2% in 2010, -11.9% in 2030) than the decline of transport energy consumption, as the share of biofuels in gasoline and diesel increases above Baseline levels reaching 9.1% in 2030 (+0.8 percentage points in comparison to the Baseline scenario). As already discussed, in the “Energy efficiency” case the fuel mix in EU-25 demand side undergoes significant changes in comparison to the Baseline scenario. In the short to medium term oil decreases most in absolute terms. Changes in the transport sector are the key driver for this projected decline (see Figure 1.2-1), accounting for 66% of the overall reduction in final oil demand in 2010 and 65% in 2030. However, in percentage terms demand for oil decreases at rates below the decline of total final energy demand over the projection period (-2.4% in 2010 from Baseline levels, -13.2% in 2030). Consequently, the market share of oil in final energy demand increases under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions to reach 38.5% in 2030 (+1.2 percentage points in comparison to the Baseline scenario). Figure 1.2-1: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “Energy efficiency” case 0.0 -10.0 -12.3

-4.0

-1.2 -2.9 -7.0 -9.0

-7.8

-1.3

-1.3

-6.5 -12.1

-20.0 -30.0 -36.9

-40.0 -50.0 -60.0 -70.0 -80.0

-46.8

-48.4 -57.1 Liquids Electricity Gas Heat Other Solids

-67.4

-79.6

-90.0 2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

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The fall in electricity use becomes increasingly important in the long run (accounting in 2030 for 37% of final energy demand reduction compared to the Baseline). In the presence of supporting policies for energy efficiency the share of electricity in final energy demand grows at a much slower pace than in the Baseline scenario, reaching 22.0% in 2030 (from 24.4% in the Baseline scenario). The decline in electricity demand is moderated by the fact that electricity is needed for many energy efficient ways of providing energy services. Natural gas consumption is also significantly affected by strong policies on energy efficiency, but in absolute terms to a smaller extent than oil and electricity. By 2030, natural gas accounts for 23.8% of energy requirements in the demand side (0.3 percentage points above Baseline levels). The demand for distributed heat declines at rates well below average (-8.2% from Baseline levels in 2030). Thus its share in final energy demand side increases to reach 7.6% in 2030 compared to 6.9% in the Baseline scenario, consistent with the aim of promoting cogeneration. In the absence of additional promotional policies for renewables (in addition to those already included in the Baseline), there is lower renewables use on the demand side. The bulk of the decline (close to 90% in 2030) arises from the lower use of biomass and waste in industry as an increasing share of steam needs is satisfied from distributed heat. Finally demand for solid fuels declines only slightly from Baseline levels (-3.9% in 2030) as solids even under Baseline assumptions become a process specific (in heavy industries) energy form in the demand side. Following these changes in the fuel mix of final demand, the projected decline in CO2 emissions from the demand side is lower than that of energy needs (-13.0% from Baseline levels in 2030 for CO2 emissions compared with -15.7% for energy consumption). In particular, carbon intensive fuels such as solid fuels decline below average and electricity demand is much lower than in the Baseline. According to statistical conventions, CO2 emissions related to electricity are accounted for in the power generation sector. Lower levels of electricity demand lead to lower “exports” of emissions from final demand to power generation so that in total carbon intensity of final demand worsens compared with Baseline, whereas carbon intensity of the whole energy system improves slightly due to developments in power generation. 1.2.2.3. Electricity and steam generation Policies towards energy efficiency cause significant changes for the electricity and steam generation sector. As a result of actions undertaken on the demand side, overall electricity production is projected to fall by 3.4% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 23.9 in 2030 (see Figure 1.2-2). In the short term the decline, both in absolute and percentage terms, is more pronounced as regards electricity generation from natural gas (-6.5% from Baseline levels in 2010). Solid fuels and renewable energy forms lose similar amounts of electricity generation in absolute terms; their percentage decline amounts to -3.4% and -4.8% from Baseline levels respectively. About 66.5% of the reduction in electricity generation from renewable energy forms compared to the Baseline scenario arises from the slower development of wind turbines in the EU-25 energy system following lower requirements for new investment due to lower electricity demand, whereas 17.5% corresponds to lower electricity generation from biomass and waste. This leads to a slightly declining renewables share compared with Baseline (17.8% compared to 18.1% in the Baseline scenario) in the short term.

22

Figure 1.2-2: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in TWh) in the “Energy efficiency” case 2010

2020

2030

200 28 0 -30 -200

-57

-20 -5 -5

-56-39 -109

-119

-10 -9

-11

-98

-215 -209

-242

-286

-400 -425 -600 -639 -800

-1000

-1200

Solids Gas Nuclear Wind energy Biomass-waste Hydro and other renewables Oil Total

-1043

Source: PRIMES.

From 2020 onwards, electricity generation from solid fuels (which is projected to make a strong comeback in the power sector under Baseline assumptions) experiences the largest decline from Baseline levels (-24.0% in 2020, -35.4% in 2030). The decline in the use of natural gas is less pronounced (-17.7% in 2020, -23.1% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also affected (-12.3% in 2020, -35.0% in 2030) as slower electricity demand growth compared to Baseline limits the needs for investment in new nuclear power plants to replace those being decommissioned over this period. Beyond 2010, electricity generation from renewable energy forms declines at rates below average (-11.3% in 2020, -9.7% in 2030). Thus, in the “Energy efficiency” case the share of renewable energy forms in electricity generation grows on top of Baseline levels in the long run to reach 32.7% in 2030 (+5.1 percentage points from Baseline). This marked increase in the share of renewable energy forms more than counterbalances the projected decline in the share of nuclear energy in the long run. In 2030, 48.7% of electricity generation is projected to be satisfied by carbon free energy forms (+2.4 percentage points up from Baseline levels). Another important change in the power sector concerns the higher exploitation of cogeneration options, and the adoption of more efficient generation technologies in the long run. Production from cogeneration units reaches 38.4% of electricity and 93.5% of distributed steam (i.e. excluding industrial and refinery boilers) generation by 2030 (24.3% and 88.6% respectively under Baseline scenario assumptions). The more pronounced role of cogeneration in the “Energy efficiency” case is clearly reflected in the evolution of installed capacity in the EU-25 energy system (see Table 1.2-4). With overall installed capacity reaching levels well below those in the Baseline scenario (-3.0% in 2010, -21.7% in 2030), cogeneration capacity exhibits even a slight increase in the long run (+5.3% from Baseline levels in 2030) accounting for 30.4% of total installed capacity in 2030 from 22.6% in the Baseline scenario.

23

Table 1.2-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case change from baseline (in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste) Hydro (pumping excluded) Lakes Run of river Wind power Wind on-shore Wind off-shore Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power Solids fired Oil fired Gas fired Natural gas Derived gasses Biomass-waste fired Fuel cells Geothermal heat Total EU-15 NMS of which CHP EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 141.1 110.1 97.2 52.2 45.0 12.8 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 410.5 188.9 74.3 131.9 119.2 12.7 14.5 0.0 1.0 661.7 588.1 73.7 113.0 88.5 24.4

2010 136.4 176.4 102.7 56.0 46.7 71.7 64.3 7.4 1.7 0.2 473.9 154.5 63.6 234.3 222.5 11.8 20.2 0.0 1.4 786.7 702.9 83.8 144.8 119.1 25.7

2020 108.0 219.8 106.3 57.3 49.0 108.2 95.2 13.1 4.8 0.4 478.1 122.3 48.5 259.1 249.0 10.1 46.7 0.0 1.5 805.9 712.3 93.6 201.8 169.3 32.5

2030 65.2 262.7 110.6 58.5 52.1 141.4 107.2 34.1 10.4 0.4 530.7 147.5 39.0 263.0 255.2 7.8 79.7 0.0 1.5 858.6 733.2 125.5 261.3 206.5 54.8

2010 0.0 -7.9 -1.2 0.0 -1.2 -6.6 -5.7 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -16.2 -2.1 -2.4 -11.1 -11.1 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -24.0 -21.5 -2.6 -6.1 -5.6 -0.5

2020 -8.9 -21.7 -2.3 -0.5 -1.8 -19.4 -13.8 -5.6 0.0 0.0 -106.5 -34.5 0.5 -62.1 -62.7 0.6 -10.4 0.0 0.0 -137.1 -116.2 -20.9 -7.2 -6.3 -0.9

2030 -36.0 -43.2 -1.6 0.0 -1.6 -41.6 -31.4 -10.1 0.0 0.0 -158.9 -63.8 4.0 -97.1 -96.8 -0.4 -1.9 0.0 -0.2 -238.1 -196.8 -41.3 13.3 12.5 0.9

The two power generation technologies most strongly affected are solids fired and natural gas fired power plants. The installed capacity of solids fired power plants falls to just 147.5 GW in 2030 with a share of 17.2% in total installed capacity, compared to 211.2 GW and 19.3% in the Baseline scenario. The fall in natural gas fired plant capacity reaches -27.5% below Baseline levels in 2030, limiting their share to 29.7% of total installed capacity (2.4 percentage points below Baseline levels). Nuclear capacity is also affected accounting in 2030 for 7.6% of total installed capacity from 9.2% in the Baseline scenario. As regards installed capacity of intermittent renewable energy forms, wind turbines capacity declines by 41.6 GW from Baseline levels in 2030 (accounting for 96.3% of the total capacity decline for renewables without biomass/waste). Biomasswaste fired capacity exhibits only a limited decline from Baseline levels in the long run (2.3% in 2030). Both the shares of intermittent renewable energy forms and biomasswaste fired plants capacities are projected to increase on top of Baseline levels reaching 30.6% and 9.3% of total installed capacity in 2030 (+2.7 and +1.8 percentage points from Baseline levels, respectively). The changes discussed above are also clearly reflected in the projected evolution of fuel inputs in the electricity and steam generation sector (see Table 1.2-5). The consumption of solid fuels in 2030 is some 40% lower than in the Baseline scenario. The input of gas falls close to 19% below the Baseline level. On the other hand, the use of biomass and waste exhibits only a limited decline in the long run (-2.5% from Baseline levels in 2030). In addition to the reduction in fossil fuel use, strong policies on energy efficiency lead to lower nuclear input to power generation mainly due to lower electricity demand (35% from Baseline levels in 2030). The decline of inputs to power generation in the “Energy efficiency” case arises both as a result of lower electricity needs but also because of the adoption of more efficient power generation technologies in the EU-25 energy system. Overall power generation efficiency

24

reaches 50.7% in 2030 (from 48.6% in the Baseline scenario) with the efficiency of thermal power plants at 48.6% (+1.1 percentage points from Baseline). Table 1.2-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “Energy efficiency” case Mtoe Solids Oil products Gas Biomass-waste Nuclear energy Geothermal heat Total EU15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 214.5 41.9 105.5 21.2 237.7 2.9 623.7 542.2 81.5 1250.0 997.8 252.2

2010 208.0 31.8 143.9 27.0 248.8 3.7 663.3 572.7 90.5 1280.0 1017.5 262.5

% change from baseline 2020 155.9 21.9 157.8 46.7 200.6 4.6 587.7 498.6 89.1 1070.0 839.8 230.3

2030 142.2 22.7 126.1 67.7 137.1 4.7 500.6 417.7 82.8 942.4 744.8 197.6

2010 -3.2 0.6 -5.8 -7.3 0.0 0.0 -2.6 -2.5 -3.2 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7

2020 -21.4 -5.9 -13.6 -12.8 -12.3 0.0 -15.0 -14.7 -16.8 -17.9 -18.4 -16.2

2030 -40.8 14.8 -18.7 -2.5 -35.0 -10.8 -28.6 -28.4 -29.6 -32.3 -33.8 -26.2

1.2.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks The slower growth of electricity requirements, combined with the shift towards carbon free energy forms and the more efficient production of electricity and steam, leads to much lower CO2 emissions from the power generation sector. CO2 emissions from this sector decline over the projection period (-3.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -32.3% in 2030). In terms of carbon intensity (t of CO2 emitted per MWh of electricity and steam) improvements reach 0.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 15.9% in 2030. Figure 1.2-3: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in the “Energy efficiency” case 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0 -100 -200

-54 -52 -107

-127 -157 -263 -262

-300

-299

-317

-284

-400 -426 -500

-482 -525

-600 -700 -800

Demand side Supply side Total

-726 -799

-900 Source: PRIMES.

The distribution of CO2 emissions reduction between the demand and the supply side is illustrated in Figure 1.2-3. In the short to medium term, somewhat higher CO2 emissions reductions are achieved in the demand side as a result of efficiency measures towards

25

reducing energy requirements. However, beyond 2020 the role of the supply side becomes increasingly important accounting in 2030 for 60% of overall CO2 emissions reductions. This result relates to the strong decline for electricity needs in the long term arising from the improved efficiency characteristics and the more rational use of electric appliances under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions, which in turn allows for a significantly less pronounced comeback of solid fuels in power generation and a higher contribution of carbon free energy forms for power generation compared with Baseline developments. Concluding, the higher exploitation of energy efficiency options in the EU energy system gives rise to a much more favourable development in the horizon to 2030 compared to the Baseline scenario. Both the demand and the supply side contribute to this direction with primary energy needs declining significantly (-18.6% compared to the Baseline in 2030). However, the import dependency of the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight worsening from Baseline levels (65.5% in 2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as the significant decline of electricity requirements in the long term limits the need for new investment in nuclear power plants and the come back of solids in the power generation sector. On the other hand changes in the fuel mix allow for a further improvement of carbon intensity in the EU-25 energy system (+2.0% from Baseline levels in 2030), which in combination to the decreasing energy requirements brings about a much more favourable development in terms of CO2 emissions in the short and long run. CO2 emissions in 2010 come back to their 1990 level instead of increasing by 3% in the Baseline. In 2020, emissions are 10% below the 1990 level and in 2030 CO2 emissions are projected to reach minus 16.4% below the 1990 level – a substantial improvement compared to an increase of CO2 emissions by +4.7% from 1990 to 2030 in the Baseline scenario.

1.3.

The “High renewables” case 1.3.1. EC policies promoting renewable energy forms and modelling approach

In November 1997 the European Commission adopted the Communication “Energy for the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy”, a White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan. The purpose of this White Paper is to contribute, by promoting renewable energy sources, to the achievement of overall energy policy objectives: security of supply, environment and competitiveness, and to improve and reinforce environment protection and sustainable development. The White paper put forward the long standing indicative objective of increasing the share of renewables in gross inland consumption to 12% in 2010. The White Paper identified a number of priority actions in the regulatory sectors aimed at overcoming obstacles and redressing the balance in favour of renewable energy, to reach the indicative objective of 12% penetration by 2010. Key areas for promoting renewables include electricity from renewables, biofuels in transport, use of renewables for heating and cooling, economic and fiscal measures, integration of renewables in buildings, and standardisation. Since the publication of the White Paper, important policy developments, including the Communication on “The share of renewable energy in the EU”16 of 2004 and the Biomass Action Plan17 of 2005 have underlined the key role of renewable energy in

16

17

Communication from the Commission “The share of renewable energy in the EU”, COM(2004) 366 final of 26 May 2004 Communication from the Commission “Biomass action plan”, COM(2005) 628 final of 7 December 2005

26

ensuring sustainable energy supplies for the Community, reinforcing social and economic cohesion, developing European industry and contributing to job creation. The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the process of integrating the environment into energy policy will both underpin a greater role of renewables and international cooperation in this field. A renewable energy contribution to sustainability is broadly endorsed at the international level. Community policies on renewables have resulted in the adoption of the Directives on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources and on the promotion of biofuels in transport. The Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market18 of 2001 has established a Community framework for electricity from renewable energy sources. The objective is to support a significant medium-term increase of electricity from renewable energy, or “green electricity”, in the EU and to facilitate its access to the internal electricity market. The Directive aims to create regulatory certainty for stakeholders, while at the same time respecting the principle of subsidiarity by providing for a wide degree of autonomy to each Member State to allow for their particular circumstances. Member States are obliged to establish national targets for the future consumption of green electricity. These national targets should lead to a 21% indicative share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in total Community (EU-25) electricity consumption by 2010. A 21% share of electricity from renewables will contribute substantially towards the global indicative target of 12% renewables in gross national energy consumption by 2010. The Directive establishes a basis for the promotion of renewables in the internal electricity market and tackles a number of technical issues, which are fundamental to the further development of green electricity. It thus obliges Member States: ƒ

to introduce accurate and reliable certification of green electricity,

ƒ

to assure priority access for green electricity to the electricity grid,

ƒ

to check how administrative procedures applicable to the installation of generation plants for green electricity could be streamlined and simplified, and

ƒ

to ensure that the calculation of costs for connecting new producers of green electricity to the electricity grid is transparent and non-discriminatory.

The biofuels19 Directive of 2003 sets out an indicative target that 5.75% of petrol and diesel consumptions come from biofuels in 2010. Other measures on biomass are put forward in the “Biomass Action Plan” and the Commission has announced in its recent Green Paper on sustainable, competitive and secure energy that it will table a Directive on heating and cooling as part of an effective EU policy on renewables. Other ongoing renewables action include RTD, the follow-up of the Biomass Action Plan and considerations of which renewables targets are necessary beyond 2010. A higher renewables share is also supported by all those measures that reduce energy consumption through higher energy efficiency such as the Directive on the energy performance of buildings, the Directive on the promotion of cogeneration, the Directive on end use energy efficiency and energy services and other measures on energy efficiency including product labelling. Such synergies can be reinforced by amending the

18

Directive 2001/77/EC of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of the electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market with later additions for accommodating indicative targets for new Member States. 19 Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels for transport (OJEU L123 of 17 May 2003)

27

buildings Directive to increase incentives for the use of renewable energy. The “Intelligent Energy for Europe Programme” (2003-2006) provides assistance for the better deployment of renewables and energy efficiency in the Community including in the transport sector and extends to developing countries, too. This programme also covers renewables use outside of the electricity and transport sectors, for which no Directive so far exists. Renewables market penetration is, on average, growing within the EU but it is not yet sufficient. The available statistics show the undeniable take-off of wind energy. They also highlight that expansion rates, higher than the EU average, have been achieved in those Member States with proactive renewable energy policies. Though progress has been made, considerable further efforts will be necessary to achieve the 12% objective. The biomass sector represents the largest potential in RES. Therefore, specific attention needs to be given to biomass, and the framework conditions should be further improved. The Biomass Action Plan addresses these issues. Solar energy also offers a big potential for further increasing renewables’ deployment through solar thermal use, especially for water heating, in the short/medium term and solar photovoltaic in the longer term. Therefore the “High renewables” scenario analysed in this chapter includes not only the implementation of the electricity and the biofuels Directives, but it also assumes a significant biomass/waste contribution in industry and considerable penetration of solar water heating in the household and tertiary sectors. This scenario aims at quantifying energy system implications of imposing as mandatory a certain numerical target about penetration of renewable energy in the EU energy system at a future period of time, more specifically a 12% renewables share in 2010 further increasing towards the achievement of a renewables share close to 20% in 2020. In order to reach such a renewables share in the PRIMES modelling, it is necessary to proceed with iterative model runs. Instead of imposing directly an overall target for renewables, it is assumed that a certain positive monetary value is associated with any unit of energy produced by a renewable energy source. Such a monetary value does not necessarily involve direct transfer of payments but its presence alters the economic optimality calculations of the agents (either demanders or producers of energy). This monetary value could be interpreted as a “virtual” subsidy and enters in calculations as a negative unit cost, which is called here a “renewables value”20. Being a virtual subsidy, the renewables value does not make energy cheaper but just influences the optimal fuel mix as considered by each economic agent. Renewables values are applied for power generation and all final demand sectors except for transport. In power generation, these values impact on investment and dispatching decisions as they are virtually subtracted from costs for investment, which leads to higher renewables investment and dispatching. However, the costs of renewables are passed on to electricity and heat prices, which are higher in this policy scenario compared with baseline. Compared with the baseline scenario, energy would generally become more expensive, as it is the case with feed-in tariff systems or other ways of renewables promotion. The presence of the renewables value alters the optimality of decisions exactly as if the additional renewables constraint was added to the baseline case. In modelling transport in this scenario, renewables penetrate through enhanced biofuels deployment in a way compatible with the developments in the other sectors. Model iterations proceed as follows: start with a certain level of renewables value, insert this value into the economic objectives of every agent and country, and run the model for

20

A similar methodology has been used to simulate global carbon emission constraints with models such as Primes; in these cases a “carbon value” has been used.

28

all EU countries; calculate the level of overall penetration of renewable energy in the EU and compare against the level of target; if the renewables penetration is lower than the target, then increase renewables value, otherwise decrease; repeat this cycle of model run and compare against target until convergence is reached. Endogenous dynamics of renewable technologies and economies of scale associated with biomass supply infrastructure are taken into account in the modelling, which lead to lower specific biomass supply costs with greater biomass penetration. 21 At convergence, the scenario assumptions are identical with baseline except for the renewable value. By comparing with baseline, evaluation of energy systems implications of the overall EU renewables target is obtained. The marginal cost of the renewables target is exactly equal to renewables value; if plotted against different levels of targets, a marginal renewables penetration cost curve is obtained. Total energy system cost under the high renewables scenario is expected to be higher than at baseline, as explained above. Following the above described methodology a “renewables value” of 25 €05 per MWh of renewable energy was estimated as the additional incentive needed for both demanders and producers of energy so as to achieve the 12% renewables share in total primary energy needs for 2010. Reaching close to a 20% renewables share in 2020 implies a further increase of this renewables value at 32.5 €05 per MWh. For 2030 the renewables value was set at 35 €05 per MWh in this scenario, reflecting a further intensification of effort in the EU-25 energy system towards the exploitation of renewable energy options.

1.3.2. “High renewables” scenario results for EU-2522 1.3.2.1. Overview of main results The introduction of additional policies and measures for renewables, expressed through the “renewables values” aimed at achieving the 12% and 20% renewables share in 2010 and 2020 respectively lead to significant changes in the future evolution of the fuel mix in the EU-25 energy system. Yet overall primary energy demand remains essentially unchanged from Baseline levels in 2010, exhibiting a limited decline thereafter of -1.8% from Baseline levels in 2030 (see Table 1.3-1). In this scenario energy efficiency follows Baseline trends, thus the limited energy intensity gains occurring in the long run reflect mainly the higher exploitation of wind and other intermittent renewable energy forms (with an attributed efficiency of 100% according to Eurostat conventions). However, there are significant changes in the fuel mix with demand for renewables growing at rates well above those projected in the Baseline scenario (5.2% pa in 2000-2030 compared to 3.0% pa in the Baseline), a growth that occurs to the detriment of all other energy forms. In 2010, renewable energy forms account for 11.6% of primary energy needs (a rise of +3.6 percentage points from Baseline levels). This increase on top of Baseline occurs mainly to the detriment of solid fuels (accounting from 14.2% of primary energy needs, 1.6 percentage points from Baseline levels) as well as oil and gas (34.9% and 24.5%, respectively, both declining by -1.0 percentage point compared to the Baseline). Nuclear remains unchanged as no investment decisions on new nuclear would be affected in the short term.

21

If technicoeconomic and fuel supply assumptions were kept identical to those used for baseline scenario, then there would be no additional technology progress as higher penetration levels for renewables are reached. This means that despite higher deployment of renewables unit costs of renewable technologies remain equal to their values as in baseline. Such an assumption would be unrealistic as higher deployment of renewable technologies will enable more technology progress (lower capital costs and higher efficiency in collecting, transporting and processing biomass) as compared with baseline trends.

22

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in Appendix 2.

29

Table 1.3-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case Mtoe Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable En. Sources Total EU-15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 306.5 634.7 376.3 237.7 96.5 1653.8 1456.9 196.9 3674.1 3127.0 547.1

2010 257.7 651.6 443.9 248.8 209.8 1813.9 1586.0 227.9 3673.9 3120.6 553.3

% change from baseline 2020 195.8 630.8 482.3 196.4 359.5 1866.8 1607.1 259.7 3449.0 2940.7 508.3

2030 200.0 585.1 488.0 140.2 446.3 1861.7 1579.3 282.3 3352.9 2844.4 508.5

2010 -10.2 -2.6 -4.0 0.0 45.9 0.1 -0.1 1.1 -5.4 -5.2 -6.4

2020 -24.5 -5.8 -8.9 -14.1 83.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -12.2 -10.9 -19.0

In 2020, the use of renewables in the EU-25 energy system increases by 84% from Baseline levels with their share reaching 19.3% compared to 10.4% in the Baseline scenario. Demand for solid fuels exhibits again the strongest decline from Baseline levels (-24.5%) followed by nuclear energy (-14.1%), natural gas (-8.9%) and liquid fuels (5.8%). In 2020 solid fuels account for 10.5% of primary energy needs, liquids for 33.8%, gas for 25.8% and nuclear for 10.5% (-3.3, -1.7, -2.3 and -1.6 percentage points respectively compared to the Baseline scenario). The assumed further strengthening of promoting policies for renewable energy forms in the horizon to 2030 leads to an increase of their share in primary energy needs up to 24.0% (+11.8 percentage point from Baseline levels in 2030). This further growth for renewables strongly affects nuclear energy and solid fuels (-33.5% and -31.8% respectively compared to the Baseline). The effects on liquid fuels (-8.6%) and natural gas (-5.8%) are less pronounced. The share of nuclear energy in primary energy needs falls to 7.5% (3.6 percentage points below Baseline). The share of solids sinks to 10.6% (-4.7 percentage points), the oil share to 31.4% (-2.4 percentage points) and that of natural gas to 26.2% (-1.1 percentage points). The higher exploitation of biomass and waste is the key driver for the substantial increase of the renewables share in the “High renewables” case accounting for 67.8% of incremental renewables demand in 2010, 72% in 2020 and 68.6% in 2030 (see Figure 1.3-1). Biomass/waste deployment in the “High renewables” case in 2030 is twice as high as in the Baseline. Besides the higher utilisation of biomass and waste in the power generation sector, the significant increase of biofuels share in gasoline and diesel oil used in the transport sector contributes to this increase. A substantial increase in the long run is also projected for solar energy and geothermal heat, reaching in 2030 levels that are 6.7 and 3.5 times higher than those reached in the Baseline scenario, respectively. The high exploitation of wind energy, already achieved in the Baseline, is further enhanced, in the “High renewables” case with the increase for wind energy reaching 45.5% in 2030 (63.8% in 2020) from Baseline levels. Finally, hydro energy increase by just 3.1% from Baseline levels in 2030 (5.7% in 2020) as a result of environmental restrictions and the already high exploitation of suitable sites in the EU-25 energy system.

30

2030 -31.8 -8.6 -5.8 -33.5 93.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5 -15.2 -14.1 -21.0

Figure 1.3-1: Changes in primary energy demand by renewable energy form in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “High renewables” case 160.0 140.0 120.0

147.8

Biomass & Waste Hydro Wind Geothermal Solar and others

118.0

100.0 80.0 60.0 44.7 40.0

29.3 20.0 17.3

16.8 17.8

20.0 2.1

7.2 10.7

9.5 1.8

1.2

1.0

0.0 2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

The increase in the share of renewable energy forms more than counterbalances the strong decline for nuclear energy in the long run with the share of carbon free energy forms in the EU-25 energy system reaching 25.3% in 2010, 29.8% in 2020 and 31.5% in 2030 (up +3.6, +7.3 and +8.2 percentage points from Baseline levels respectively). In combination to the strong impact that promoting policies for renewable energy forms have on the comeback of solid fuels in the EU-25 energy system, projected to occur under Baseline assumptions in the long run, the “High renewables” case is characterised by significant improvements in carbon intensity (-5.4% from Baseline levels in 2010, 11.3% in 2020 and -13.7% in 2030). In that context CO2 emissions are projected to decrease by -2.7% from 1990 levels in 2010 (i.e. remaining stable compared to 2000 levels), by -8.7% from 1990 levels in 2020 and by -11.2% from 1990 levels in 2030. Table 1.3-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case % Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 30.8 76.4 49.6 47.2 49.5 30.1

2010 43.2 83.3 61.4 52.1 53.8 39.4

2020 51.1 92.3 79.7 58.2 60.3 45.2

2030 50.2 93.3 83.6 57.8 60.0 44.9

percentage points difference from baseline 2010 2020 2030 -2.9 1.7 -8.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.0 -3.0 -5.3 -7.1 -2.7 -5.1 -6.8 -4.7 -6.9 -8.8

The higher exploitation of renewable energy forms (which are indigenously produced in the EU-25) has also a strong impact on the evolution of import dependency for the EU25 energy system (see Table 1.3-2). In 2010, import dependency is limited to 52.1% compared to 55.1% in the Baseline, increasing to 58.2% in 2020 and declining thereafter to 57.8% in 2030 (5.3 and 7.1 percentage points below Baseline levels, respectively).

31

1.3.2.2. Final energy demand In the absence of additional policies towards energy efficiency improvements compared with Baseline, final energy demand in the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight worsening from Baseline levels (+0.2% in 2010, +0.5% in 2030) as a result of the higher exploitation of biomass and waste options with somewhat lower efficiencies than e.g. gas and electricity at the useful energy level in the demand side but also increasing electricity and steam tariffs (see Table 1.3-3). Table 1.3-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case Mtoe Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS

Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000 330.1 273.3 159.0 333.0 1095.4 970.7 124.7

2010 2020 358.9 384.9 312.9 339.9 188.0 210.2 381.2 405.5 1240.9 1340.5 1089.4 1157.3 151.5 183.1 Mt CO2 emissions

2030 393.5 352.8 228.4 402.3 1377.1 1170.0 207.1

2010 2020 2030 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3 % change from baseline

2000 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9 2234.3 1985.3 249.0

2010 558.8 479.2 260.0 1051.9 2349.9 2071.3 278.5

2030 544.3 481.9 237.0 986.9 2250.2 1928.6 321.6

2010 -3.2 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 -1.9 -2.0 -1.1

2020 566.7 490.8 261.2 1043.3 2362.0 2053.9 308.1

2020 -4.8 -0.8 -5.3 -6.5 -4.8 -5.0 -3.6

Higher use of biomass and waste mainly in industry and of solar thermal panels for water heating in services and households leads to significant changes in the fuel mix (see Figure 1.3-2). Both changes occur mainly to the detriment of natural gas (-1.2% from Baseline levels in 2010, -3.5% in 2030) and liquid fuels (-2.4% in 2010, -10.0% in 2030). Natural gas and liquid fuels lose market share in both industry (mainly through biomass/waste use in industrial boilers) and in services and households (where, for water heating, conventional fuels are replaced by solar thermal panels). In 2030, consumption of biomass and waste is 78.8% higher than in the Baseline scenario (41.8% in 2010). The increase for solar energy is even more pronounced reaching 88.5% in 2010 and it is 7.3 times higher than in the Baseline scenario by 2030. By 2030, biomass and waste account for 8.8% of energy requirements in the demand side (from 5.0 in the Baseline scenario) and solar energy for 1.9% (from 0.3% in the Baseline scenario). The share of liquid fuels (including biofuels blended in gasoline and diesel) is limited to 33.5% (3.9 percentage points below Baseline levels in 2030), the gas share to 22.5% (-0.9 percentage points) and that of electricity to 23.8% (-0.6 percentage points). Furthermore, the share of biofuels increases significantly in this “High renewables” scenario. Biofuels, blended in gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector, reach a share of 6.4% in 2010, 14.2% in 2020 and 19.1% in 2030 (+2.4 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2010, +7.3 in 2020 and +10.8 in 2030). Taking into account this increased share of biofuels the decline in oil consumption becomes even more pronounced reaching close to -18% from Baseline levels in 2030 with their share limited to 28.9% from 35.4% in the Baseline scenario. In other words the share of biofuels in total final energy demand increases from 2.0% in 2030 under the Baseline scenario assumptions to 4.6% in the “High renewables” case.

32

2030 -4.5 -1.0 -15.9 -9.7 -7.4 -7.7 -6.1

Figure 1.3-2: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “High renewables” case 60.0

40.0

Liquids Gas Electricity Heat Solids Other Biomass & Waste

53.5 44.0

23.2

22.8 20.0 6.6 1.2 0.0

-0.5 -3.3 -3.1-1.9

-1.8-0.7 -5.3 -7.2

-12.2

-0.8 -0.5 -6.4 -11.2

-20.0

-33.6

-40.0

-51.0 -60.0 2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

This trend is also clearly reflected on the evolution of CO2 emissions in the transport sector, which exhibit a strong decline in the “High renewables case (-2.1% from Baseline levels in 2010, -9.7% in 2030) despite the fact that energy requirements in transport remain unchanged from Baseline levels. An even more pronounced decline of CO2 emissions is projected for the tertiary sector (-15.9% from Baseline levels in 2030) reflecting the large scope for exploitation of solar energy options, whereas the decline is limited to -4.5% in industry and -1.0% in the residential sector. Total CO2 emissions in the EU-25 demand side decrease by -1.9% from Baseline levels in 2010, -4.8% in 2020 and -7.4% in 2030. 1.3.2.3. Electricity and steam generation Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector (see Figure 1.3-3). Renewable energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and solid fuels in the “High renewables” case, while overall electricity requirements exhibit a limited decline from Baseline levels (-1.3% in 2010 up to -2.5% in 2030). In absolute terms the most pronounced growth above Baseline levels is projected for the use of biomass and waste in electricity generation (+62.5% in 2010, +121.6% in 2030). The further expansion of wind energy beyond baseline levels is also substantial: +45.9% in 2010 and +45.5% in 2030. Other renewable energy forms exhibit substantial improvement on top of Baseline levels in relative terms with electricity generation from solar energy in 2030 being 9.4 times higher than in the Baseline scenario and that for geothermal heat 4.0 times higher. However, their share in total electricity generation remains rather small (1.9% for solar energy in 2030, 0.7% for geothermal heat). In total, the share of renewable energy forms (including waste) in electricity generation increases to 23.5% in 2010, 39.4 in 2020 and 45.6% in 2030 (5.4, 16 and 18 percentage points above Baseline levels, respectively), with biomass and waste accounting for 40.3% of renewable electricity in 2030, wind energy for 33.0% and hydro for 20.9% (from 18.3%, 33.1% and 46.0% respectively in 2010).

33

Figure 1.3-3: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in TWh) in the “High renewables” case 2010

2020

2030

500 430 400

334

300 201

195

200 84

100

57

107

77 37

0 -100

-47 -115 -110

-125

-86

-106

-108

-200 -300 -400 -500

Solids Gas Nuclear Wind energy Biomass-waste Hydro and other renewables Oil Total

-257

-274

-309

-465

-600 Source: PRIMES.

In the short term the increased use of renewable energy forms for electricity generation occurs to the detriment both of natural gas (-12.6% in 2010) and solid fuels (-13.2%). In the long term the decline in solid fuels use becomes significantly more pronounced reaching -38.7% in 2030 compared to -10.4% for natural gas. Electricity generation from nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the long run exhibiting a decline of -33.5% from Baseline levels in 2030. The above changes are also reflected in the evolution of the installed capacity in EU-25 power generation sector (see Table 1.3-4) with capacity for intermittent renewable energy forms reaching close to 450 GW in 2030 (37.7% of total installed capacity compared to 27.9% in the Baseline scenario). Furthermore biomass-waste fired power plants capacity exceeds 155 GW in 2030 (74 GW more than in the Baseline scenario). In total, power generation capacity using renewable energy forms is projected to account for 50.8% of total installed capacity in 2030 compared to 35.3% in the Baseline (in 2010: 29.7% compared to 25.3%). The most pronounced increase is projected for wind turbines capacity which reaches 275 GW in 2030 (+92.2 GW from Baseline levels accounting for 42.9% of incremental renewables capacity in 2030 compared to 34.5% for biomass-waste power plants). Given that wind energy accounts for just 27.2% of incremental renewable electricity compared to 58.2% for biomass and waste, it is clear that in the context of the “High renewables” case, high cost wind energy options are exploited (involving lower utilisation rates compared to wind energy options undertaken under Baseline assumptions). In combination to the strong growth for solar capacity, this gives rise to a strong increase of overall installed capacity on top of Baseline levels despite the lower electricity requirements projected in the “High renewables” case. As a result the load factor of the power generation sector exhibits a worsening from Baseline levels reaching 41.0% in 2030 (4.4 percentage points lower than in the Baseline scenario).

34

Table 1.3-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case change from baseline (in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste) Hydro (pumping excluded) Lakes Run of river Wind power Wind on-shore Wind off-shore Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power Solids fired Oil fired Gas fired Natural gas Derived gasses Biomass-waste fired Fuel cells Geothermal heat Total EU-15 NMS of which CHP EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 141.1 110.1 97.2 52.2 45.0 12.8 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 410.5 188.9 74.3 131.9 119.2 12.7 14.5 0.0 1.0 661.7 588.1 73.7 113.0 88.5 24.4

2010 136.4 220.8 108.1 57.4 50.7 110.8 95.2 15.7 1.7 0.2 475.5 152.2 64.4 228.5 216.6 11.8 26.7 0.0 3.8 832.8 745.8 87.0 144.2 119.4 24.7

2020 111.4 348.4 111.7 58.8 52.8 208.6 153.1 55.5 27.7 0.4 554.6 112.1 41.9 280.2 270.8 9.4 114.6 0.0 5.8 1014.4 894.2 120.2 207.8 176.4 31.4

2030 66.9 446.6 113.8 59.2 54.5 275.1 177.0 98.1 57.3 0.4 671.8 137.6 35.6 336.5 328.4 8.1 155.6 0.0 6.4 1185.3 1014.7 170.6 249.9 197.5 52.4

2010 0.0 36.6 4.2 1.4 2.8 32.4 25.1 7.4 0.0 0.0 -14.6 -4.3 -1.6 -17.0 -17.0 0.0 5.9 0.0 2.4 22.0 21.4 0.6 -6.7 -5.3 -1.4

2020 -5.5 106.9 3.0 1.0 2.0 81.0 44.2 36.9 22.8 0.0 -30.0 -44.7 -6.0 -41.0 -40.9 -0.1 57.5 0.0 4.2 71.4 65.7 5.7 -1.2 0.8 -2.0

2030 -34.3 140.7 1.6 0.7 0.9 92.2 38.3 53.8 46.9 0.0 -17.8 -73.6 0.7 -23.6 -23.5 -0.1 74.0 0.0 4.7 88.6 84.8 3.8 1.9 3.5 -1.6

The strong penetration of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector has a particularly important impact on solids fired power plants, the installed capacity of which falls to just 137.6 GW in 2030 with a share of 11.6% in total installed capacity (7.7 percentage points lower than in the Baseline). Nuclear capacity is also affected in the long run (-34% from Baseline levels in 2030) accounting in 2030 for 5.6% of total installed capacity from 9.2% in the Baseline scenario. The fall in natural gas fired plant capacity reaches -6.7% below Baseline levels in 2030 (-13.1% in 2020), limiting their share to 28.4% of total installed capacity (4.4 percentage points below Baseline levels). The increasing exploitation of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector also contributes to an improvement of the overall power generation efficiency with fuel input in power plants declining at rates well above those of electricity generation over the projection period (see Table 1.3-5). The strong penetration of intermittent renewable energy forms and the declining contribution of nuclear energy are the key driver for this result with overall power generation efficiency reaching 50.8% in 2030 (+2.2 percentage points compared to the Baseline scenario). However, the efficiency of thermal power plants is projected to reach only 46% in 2030 compared to 47.5% in the Baseline as biomass and waste fired power plants are less efficient than those that they replace following policies promoting renewable energy forms. Consumption of biomass and waste in power generation increases by 50% in 2010 and more than doubles from Baseline levels in 2020 and 2030. The most pronounced decline from Baseline levels is projected for solid fuels (reaching -38% in 2030) whereas transformation input of natural gas declines at higher rates in the medium term (-19.8% in 2020) than in 2030 (-8.6%). Nuclear also declines substantially in the long run reaching -33.5% from Baseline levels in 2030.

35

Table 1.3-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “High renewables” case Mtoe 2000 214.5 41.9 105.5 21.2 237.7 2.9 623.7 542.2 81.5 1250.0 997.8 252.2

Solids Oil products Gas Biomass-waste Nuclear energy Geothermal heat Total EU15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2010 188.1 32.4 138.4 44.0 248.8 14.4 666.0 571.9 94.2 1188.2 943.3 245.0

% change from baseline 2020 136.8 23.4 146.5 114.0 196.4 22.4 639.5 537.8 101.7 971.5 793.4 178.1

2030 149.0 20.7 141.9 147.2 140.2 25.2 624.2 515.6 108.6 1002.7 835.3 167.4

2010 -12.5 2.4 -9.4 50.9 0.0 290.1 -2.2 -2.7 0.7 -10.5 -10.6 -10.1

2020 -31.1 0.5 -19.8 112.7 -14.1 386.4 -7.5 -8.0 -4.9 -25.5 -22.9 -35.2

1.3.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks The projected changes in the fuel mix lead to CO2 emissions reduction from the power generation sector of -10.5% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -28.0% in 2030 with improvements in terms of carbon intensity reaching 11.1% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 27.9% in 2030. In the presence of policies promoting renewable energy forms CO2 emissions from the power generation sector remain well below 2000 levels over the projection period with reductions from Baseline levels being about 4 times higher than in the demand side in 2010 and still more than twice as high in 2030. Thus, in 2010 the supply side accounts for 78% of total CO2 emissions reduction achieved from Baseline levels, a share dropping to 70% by 2030 (see Figure 1.3-4). Figure 1.3-4: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in the “High renewables” case 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0 -46 -100

-83 -119

-200

-158

-162 -208

-181 -249

-300

-332

-400

-360 -388 -421

-500

-600

-480 Demand side Supply side Total

-546 -602

-700 Source: PRIMES.

Total CO2 emissions are over 200 mill.t lower than Baseline in 2010 and over 600 mill.t lower in 2030. Compared to the Kyoto base-year 1990, CO2 emissions decrease to minus

36

2030 -38.0 4.8 -8.6 112.0 -33.5 379.3 -10.9 -11.6 -7.7 -28.0 -25.7 -37.5

3% in 2010 (instead of increasing 3% in the Baseline) and to minus 11% in 2030 (instead of growing by 5% in the absence of strong renewables policies). Concluding, the “High renewables” case is characterised by a substantial shift towards the use of renewable energy forms that, despite the limited energy intensity gains (-1.8% from Baseline levels in 2030) allow for a much more favourable development of the EU25 energy system in the horizon to 2030 both in terms of import dependency (57.8% in 2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as well as in terms of CO2 emissions that remain below 1990 levels over the projection period (-2.7% in 2010, -11.2% in 2030).

1.3.3. “12% renewables share in 2010” scenario results for EU-2523 The “12% renewables share in 2010” case exploits the evolution of the EU-25 energy system in the horizon to 2030 with supporting policies for renewable energy forms remaining constant over the projection period at the levels needed for the achievement of a 12% share for renewable energy forms in 2010 (i.e. the “renewables value” of 25 €05 per MWh is kept constant in 2010-2030). Table 1.3-6: Evolution of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case Mtoe Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable En. Sources Total EU-15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 306.5 634.7 376.3 237.7 96.5 1653.8 1456.9 196.9 3674.1 3127.0 547.1

2010 258.2 652.6 442.8 248.8 208.9 1813.5 1585.8 227.7 3677.0 3124.1 552.9

% change from baseline 2020 203.1 648.3 489.4 205.8 322.8 1871.6 1611.7 259.8 3547.7 3019.8 527.8

2030 215.7 613.4 495.8 156.7 378.5 1862.3 1579.1 283.1 3518.2 2975.5 542.7

2010 -10.0 -2.4 -4.2 0.0 45.3 0.1 -0.1 1.0 -5.3 -5.1 -6.5

2020 -21.7 -3.2 -7.6 -10.0 65.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -9.7 -8.5 -15.9

2030 -26.4 -4.2 -4.3 -25.7 64.0 -1.7 -1.8 -1.3 -11.0 -10.1 -15.7

As was the case in the “High renewables” scenario, overall primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system exhibit only a limited decline from Baseline levels (see Table 1.3-6).24 Nevertheless, demand for renewable energy forms exhibits a strong growth on top of baseline levels over the projection period (+45.3% in 2010, +64.0% in 2030) while a decline of energy requirements for all other energy forms is projected. In the short term, the most pronounced changes occur in the use of solid fuels and natural gas (-10.0% and -4.2 % from Baseline levels in 2010 respectively). In the long term the use of solids is most affected (-26.4% in 2030) followed by nuclear energy (-25.7%). With renewables promotion there is less replacement of nuclear by such plants at the end of their lifetime. The bulk of the increase in renewable energy use is for biomass/waste (67.8% of incremental demand for renewables in 2010, 66.9% in 2030), whereas the contribution of other renewable energy sources, such as hydro, wind, solar and geothermal energy, is 23

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in Appendix 3.

24

It should be noted that results for 2010 are slightly different to those of the “High renewables” case despite the fact that the same “renewables value” is introduced for that year. This is explained by the intertemporal character of the power generation sector model due to which investment decisions are not only affected by prevailing assumptions in a specific year but through expectations of investors also by the overall policy approach in the specific scenario (i.e. existence of signals for strengthening renewables promotion, such as targets, or their absence). Thus, with different “renewables values” beyond 2010 for the “12% renewables share in 2010” to the “High renewables” case the results for 2010 are also affected.

37

less pronounced. The high exploitation of the large potential of biomass/waste in the EU25 energy system, especially in power and steam generation, as well as in biofuels production, is the key driver for this result. The share of renewable energy forms reaches 11.5% in 2010, 17.2% in 2020 and 20.3% in 2030 (compared with 7.4%, 10.4 and 12.2% respectively in the Baseline scenario). These changes also influence the projected evolution of CO2 emissions from the EU-25 energy system. In 2010, CO2 emissions in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case are projected to be -5.3% below Baseline levels (-11.0% in 2030). Import dependency also improves somewhat, being limited to 52.1% in 2010 (-3.0 percentage points from Baseline levels) and 60.1% in 2030 (compared to 64.9% in the Baseline scenario). The demand side also undergoes some significant changes from Baseline levels. While final energy demand exhibits a slight growth on top of Baseline levels (+0.2% in 2010, +0.1% in 2030) policies stimulating the use of renewable energy lead to changes in the fuel mix with higher use of biomass and waste as well as solar energy occurring to the detriment of all other energy forms. Furthermore, the share of biofuels increases significantly in this “12% renewables share in 2010” case. Biofuels reach shares of 6.4% in 2010 and 13.1% in 2030. The corresponding shares in the Baseline scenario are 3.9% in 2010 and 8.3% in 2030. The projected changes in the fuel mix on the demand side towards the use of less carbon intensive energy forms lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by -1.9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -3.7% in 2030. In the short term the biggest improvement in carbon intensity occurs in industry (-3.0% from Baseline levels in 2010). Transport related CO2 emissions are projected to be -2.1% below Baseline levels in 2010, due to the higher exploitation of the biofuels potential. In the long term the tertiary sector experiences the largest decline from Baseline levels in CO2 emissions (-6.4% in 2030) as a result of the substantial increase in the use of solar energy. Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector. Renewable energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and solid fuels in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, while overall electricity requirements are slightly lower than those in the Baseline scenario. Nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the long run. The most pronounced growth above Baseline levels in relative terms is projected for solar energy and geothermal heat with electricity generation from these energy forms in 2030 reaching 7.3 and 3 times higher from Baseline levels. However, their share in total electricity generation remains small reaching 1.5% for solar energy and 0.7% for geothermal heat in 2030 (+1.3 and +0.5 percentage points above Baseline levels respectively). The use of biomass and waste in electricity generation exhibits the highest growth in absolute terms (+61.7% in 2010, +90.3% in 2030), whereas expansion in the use of wind energy is limited to +45.7% in 2010 and +41.5% in 2030 reflecting the strong penetration already achieved in the Baseline. In the short term the increased use of renewable energy forms for electricity generation purposes occurs to the detriment both of natural gas (-12.7% in 2010) and solid fuels (-12.8%). In the long term the decline in solid fuels use reaches -31.9% in 2030 compared to -8.3% for natural gas. A strong decline is also projected for nuclear energy (-25.7% from Baseline levels in 2030). The above changes lead to a significant increase of the share of renewable energy in electricity generation reaching 23.5% in 2010 and 42.0% in 2030 (+5.4 and +14.4 percentage points from Baseline levels respectively). Furthermore, the projected changes in the fuel mix lead to CO2 emissions reduction from the power generation sector of 10.4% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -22.9% in 2030. Overall CO2 reduction compared with Baseline derives mostly from changes on the supply side over the projection period (77.9% of total CO2 reduction in 2010, 79.4% in 2030). CO2 emissions in absolute terms exhibit a continuous decline from 1990 levels in the period to 2030 (-2.6% in 2010, -6.1% in 2020 and -6.8% in 2030).

38

Concluding, the “12% renewables share in 2010” case is characterised by similar trends to those discussed earlier for the “High renewables” case, however, less pronounced ones as supporting policies for renewable energy forms remain stable at 2010 levels in the horizon to 2030. With primary energy requirements exhibiting only a slight decline from Baseline levels, bringing nevertheless a slight improvement in energy intensity, the changes in the fuel mix towards renewable energy forms allow for significant improvements both regarding the evolution of CO2 emissions and the import dependency of the EU-25 energy system. For example, CO2 emissions in 2030 are down 7% from their 1990 level in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, whereas they decrease 11% below 1990 in the “High renewables” case. Import dependency in 2030 would be limited to 60% in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, whereas it reaches only 58% in the “High renewables” case. On the other hand, costs are higher in long run for the “High renewables” case, mirrored by a renewables value of 35 €05/MWh in 2030 compared to 25 €05/MWh in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case.

1.4.

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case 1.4.1. Modelling approach

This scenario aims at simulating the energy and environment effects (in terms of CO2 emissions) of successfully implementing strong policies for both energy efficiency and renewables as far as such measures can be modelled. The policies included relate to those discussed earlier on the “Energy efficiency” and the “High renewables” case. In the approach retained, the “Energy efficiency and high renewables case” combines the assumptions of the above mentioned cases, focusing on exploring the possible synergies and trade-offs of policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy forms simultaneously, regardless of any specific targets (for example rather than revising the “renewables value” so as to achieve a 12% renewables share in 2010 and 20% share in 2020, it is kept as in the “High renewables” case).

1.4.2.

“Combined high renewables and efficiency” scenario results for EU2525

1.4.2.1. Overview of main results The combination of policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy forms leads to a significantly different evolution of the EU-25 energy system in comparison to the Baseline scenario (see Table 1.4-1). In 2010, primary energy needs in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case are projected to be 2.8% below Baseline levels. This decrease is even more pronounced in the long run (-19.9% in 2030). As was the case in the “Energy efficiency” case, beyond 2010 total energy consumption declines not only relative to Baseline but also in absolute terms (-0.7% pa in 2010-2030) reaching -2.5% from 1990 levels by 2030. In 2030, total energy requirements would be -2.5% lower than they had been in 1990. This compares to a decline of -0.9% in 1990-2030 achieved in the “Energy efficiency” case reflecting the higher transformation efficiency of e.g. wind in power generation.

25

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in Appendix 4.

39

Table 1.4-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case Mtoe Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable En. Sources Total EU-15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 306.5 634.7 376.3 237.7 96.5 1653.8 1456.9 196.9 3674.1 3127.0 547.1

2010 246.0 637.7 417.8 248.8 209.2 1761.6 1543.0 218.6 3524.1 2990.7 533.4

% change from baseline 2020 156.9 574.9 413.7 161.5 324.9 1633.4 1411.1 222.4 2968.8 2543.3 425.5

2030 124.5 529.8 394.3 73.5 393.7 1517.5 1293.1 224.4 2669.5 2300.1 369.4

2010 -14.2 -4.6 -9.6 0.0 45.5 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 -9.2 -9.1 -9.8

2020 -39.5 -14.2 -21.9 -29.4 66.2 -13.4 -13.1 -15.0 -24.4 -23.0 -32.2

Lower energy requirements combined with additional policies and measures for renewables allow for a growth of the renewables share in primary energy needs at rates above those projected in the “High renewables” case, despite the less pronounced growth of renewables consumption in absolute terms (reaching 394 Mtoe in 2030 compared to 446 Mtoe in the “High renewables” case). Thus, in 2010 renewables are projected to account for 11.9% of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system, a share rising to 19.9% in 2020 and reaching 25.9% in 2030 (from 11.6%, 19.3% and 24%, respectively, in the “High renewables” case). Demand for all other energy forms is projected to decline from Baseline levels with the impacts in the short run being more pronounced for solids and natural gas (-14.2% and -9.6% respectively from Baseline levels in 2010). In the long run, nuclear energy (-65.1% from Baseline levels in 2030) and solids (-57.5%) decline most following strong combined policies on energy efficiency and renewables. The more than pronounced decline in nuclear, following a substantial reduction in electricity demand, limits the share of carbon free energy forms in primary energy needs to 30.8% in 2030 (from 26% in 2010 and 29.8% in 2020). In the “High renewables” case the share of carbon free energy forms increased from 25.3% in 2010 up to 29.8% in 2020 and 31.5% in 2030. Carbon intensity of the EU-25 energy system improves by 6.6% from Baseline levels in 2010, 12.8% in 2020 and 15.7% in 2030 as a result of the changes in the fuel mix occurring in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” cases. This, in combination to the much lower energy requirements in the EU-25 energy system leads to a strong decline of CO2 emissions which are projected to reach -9.2% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -32.5% in 2030. Compared to 1990 levels, CO2 emissions are reduced by -6.7% in 2010, by -21.4% in 2020 and by -29.3% in 2030. This illustrates clearly that pursuing simultaneously strong policies towards energy efficiency and renewables allows for a much more favourable development of CO2 emissions, especially in the long run.

40

2030 -57.5 -17.3 -23.9 -65.1 70.5 -19.9 -19.6 -21.7 -32.5 -30.5 -42.6

Figure 1.4-1: Changes in primary energy demand by renewable energy form in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case 140.0

120.0

100.0

127.0

Biomass & Waste Hydro Wind Geothermal Solar and others

98.1

80.0

60.0 47.2 40.0

20.0 1.7

6.3

12.7

9.6

13.1 4.3

1.8

1.3

0.6

18.2

15.6

0.0 2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

Biomass and waste have a predominant role in the increase of the renewables share accounting for 72% and 78% of incremental renewables demand in 2010 and 2030, respectively (see Figure 1.4-1). Geothermal heat also increases substantially (+317% from Baseline levels in 2030), followed by solar energy (+99% in 2030) and wind energy (+34.6% in 2030), while hydro exhibits a limited growth on top of Baseline levels in the short to medium term, reaching a levels almost identical to those of the Baseline scenario in the long run. Table 1.4-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case % Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 30.8 76.4 49.6 47.2 49.5 30.1

2010 43.8 83.0 59.9 51.4 53.3 37.7

2020 49.9 91.9 76.5 57.7 59.7 44.7

2030 55.8 92.8 80.2 59.2 61.3 46.1

percentage points difference from baseline 2010 2020 2030 -2.3 0.4 -3.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -2.8 -5.0 -4.3 -3.7 -5.8 -5.7 -3.3 -5.7 -5.5 -6.4 -7.3 -7.7

Finally, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the EU-25 energy system import dependency is also projected to improve from Baseline levels being limited to 51.4% in 2010 (-3.7 percentage points from Baseline levels) and 59.2% in 2030 from 64.9% in the Baseline scenario (see Table 1.4-2). 1.4.2.2. Final energy demand In the presence of policies towards energy efficiency, energy requirements in the demand side decline substantially from Baseline levels; up to -15.6% in 2030 (see Table 1.4-3). With the drivers being the same as those discussed in the “Energy efficiency” case the highest energy intensity gains are projected for the tertiary sector (-32.3% from Baseline levels in 2030) followed by the residential sector, the transport sector and industry.

41

Table 1.4-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case Mtoe Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS

Industry Residential Tertiary Transports Total EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000 330.1 273.3 159.0 333.0 1095.4 970.7 124.7

2010 2020 356.7 373.0 303.2 278.8 175.0 164.0 373.0 367.8 1207.9 1183.5 1061.0 1026.4 146.9 157.1 Mt CO2 emissions

2030 384.7 260.3 152.6 358.5 1156.1 990.8 165.2

2010 2020 2030 0.1 -2.5 -1.8 -2.8 -17.7 -25.9 -7.1 -22.6 -32.3 -2.1 -9.3 -10.9 -2.4 -11.6 -15.6 -2.4 -11.1 -14.9 -2.9 -14.3 -20.0 % change from baseline

2000 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9 2234.3 1985.3 249.0

2010 554.2 465.1 246.7 1028.3 2294.3 2021.7 272.6

2030 534.4 370.0 221.0 856.8 1982.2 1704.2 278.1

2010 -3.9 -3.6 -5.8 -4.3 -4.3 -4.4 -3.2

2020 542.6 411.7 232.8 930.8 2117.9 1842.1 275.8

2020 -8.8 -16.8 -15.6 -16.6 -14.6 -14.8 -13.7

However, while in the “Energy efficiency” case a worsening of carbon intensity from Baseline levels was projected for the demand side, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case supporting policies for renewable energy forms allow for an improvement of carbon intensity compared to the Baseline scenario leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions at rates higher than the decrease of final energy demand (up to -18.5% in 2030). The higher penetration of biomass and waste in the demand side, including the increased share of biofuels used in the transport sector, more than counterbalances the declining energy requirements for electricity and distributed steam, which are carbon free energies at the point of use (see Figure 1.4-2). Figure 1.4-2: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case 60.0 47.1 38.0

40.0 22.0

20.0 0.0 -20.0

0.6

1.2

0.6 -0.7 -4.2 -11.1 -12.2

-1.5 -6.8

-2.1 -14.1

-24.5 -40.0 -44.4 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0

-56.4 Liquids Gas Electricity Heat Solids Other Biomass & Waste

-85.0

-54.3

-86.7 -104.9

-120.0 2010 Source: PRIMES.

42

2020

2030

2030 -6.2 -24.0 -21.6 -21.6 -18.5 -18.4 -18.8

In 2030, biomass and waste account for close to 10% of energy requirements in the demand side (+5 percentage points from Baseline levels), an increase in market share that occurs mainly to the detriment of electricity (-3 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2030) and liquids (-2 percentage points). In the presence of energy efficiency measures, solar energy is projected to make significantly slower inroads than in the “High renewables” case given lower electricity demand (+16.6% from Baseline levels in 2030 from +45.5% in 2010, with the corresponding figures in the “High renewables” case being +88.5% in 2010 and +632% in 2030). The share of biofuels increases significantly reaching 6.4% of gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector, and 20.9% in 2030 (from 6.4% in 2010 and 19.1 in 2030 for the “High renewables” case). This is also reflected on the evolution of CO2 emissions in the transport sector, which decline at rates well above the corresponding decline in energy requirements (with a percentage decrease of CO2 from Baseline almost twice as high in 2030). A carbon intensity improvement is also projected for industrial sectors (driven by the above mentioned higher exploitation of biomass and waste options) with CO2 emissions in 2030 declining by -6.2% from Baseline levels compared to a decline of energy demand by -1.8%. On the contrary, in the tertiary and the residential sector carbon intensity worsens from Baseline levels as the decline in electricity requirements is not counterbalanced by the further deployment of solar energy in these sectors. 1.4.2.3. Electricity and steam generation In the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case electricity production is projected to decline by -4.8% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -26.3% in 2030, a decline driven by the exploitation of energy efficiency options in the demand side. In combination to policies promoting renewable energy forms the structure of the power generation sector of the EU-25 energy system undergoes significant changes in comparison to the Baseline scenario (see Figure 1.4-3). Figure 1.4-3: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in TWh) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case 2010

2020

2030

600 369

400 270 200

153

148

74 89 31

66

43

0 -200

-159 -202

-169

-260

-400 -503

-600 -800 -1000 -1200

Solids Gas Nuclear Wind energy Biomass-waste Hydro and other renewables Oil Total

-439

-452

-532 -756

-794

-1149

-1400 Source: PRIMES.

Renewable electricity accounts for 24.8% of total electricity generation in 2010 with its share rising to a remarkable 55.7% in 2030 (+6.8 and +28.1 percentage points from

43

Baseline levels respectively, +1.4 and +10.1 percentage points from “High renewables” case levels respectively). Solar and wind would account for 20.1% of electricity generation in 2030 with 35.6% covered by biomass, waste, geothermal and hydro. Biomass and waste account for 46% of incremental renewables electricity compared to the Baseline in 2010, a share increasing to 63% in 2030. The corresponding shares for wind energy are 38% in 2010 and 26% in 2030, whereas some significant inroads are also projected for geothermal heat in the short to medium term and solar energy in the long run. Electricity generation from fossil fuels is strongly affected. The most pronounced impact in the short run is projected for natural gas (share declining by -4.7 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2010), the corresponding decline for solids reaching -3.5 percentage points. In the long run the share of solid fuels in total electricity generation is limited to 12.7% in 2030 (-14.8 percentage points from Baseline levels) with that of gas reaching 17.9% (-5.3 percentage points from Baseline levels). As regards nuclear energy, lower electricity requirements in 2010 lead to an increase of its share in total electricity generation from 27.7% in the Baseline scenario up to 29.1% in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case. In the long run this trend is reversed, with electricity generation from nuclear power plants in 2030 reaching only 8.9% of total electricity generation compared to 18.7% in the Baseline scenario. Cogeneration of electricity and steam is also favoured in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case with electricity generation from cogeneration units reaching 19.4% in 2010 (+1.4 percentage points from Baseline levels) and 35.8% in 2030 (+11.5 percentage points). Table 1.4-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case change from baseline (in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste) Hydro (pumping excluded) Lakes Run of river Wind power Wind on-shore Wind off-shore Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power Solids fired Oil fired Gas fired Natural gas Derived gasses Biomass-waste fired Fuel cells Geothermal heat Total EU-15 NMS of which CHP EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 141.1 110.1 97.2 52.2 45.0 12.8 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 410.5 188.9 74.3 131.9 119.2 12.7 14.5 0.0 1.0 661.7 588.1 73.7 113.0 88.5 24.4

2010 136.4 215.3 106.9 57.4 49.5 106.5 93.3 13.2 1.7 0.2 471.0 152.5 61.8 219.1 207.3 11.8 34.1 0.0 3.6 822.7 735.4 87.4 149.3 122.7 26.6

2020 105.8 312.7 110.5 58.8 51.7 190.1 140.2 50.0 11.7 0.4 476.4 91.4 48.0 233.5 223.9 9.6 98.3 0.0 5.3 895.0 795.9 99.1 195.3 165.5 29.7

2030 40.4 403.9 112.6 59.2 53.4 252.1 164.2 87.9 38.7 0.4 515.1 90.9 39.6 233.6 226.7 6.8 145.0 0.0 6.0 959.4 834.2 125.2 241.1 196.5 44.6

2010 0.0 31.1 3.0 1.4 1.6 28.1 23.2 4.9 0.0 0.0 -19.1 -4.1 -4.3 -26.3 -26.3 0.0 13.4 0.0 2.2 12.0 11.0 1.0 -1.6 -2.0 0.4

2020 -11.1 71.2 1.9 1.0 0.9 62.5 31.2 31.3 6.8 0.0 -108.1 -65.4 0.1 -87.7 -87.8 0.1 41.2 0.0 3.7 -48.0 -32.6 -15.4 -13.7 -10.0 -3.7

2030 -60.8 97.9 0.4 0.7 -0.3 69.2 25.6 43.6 28.4 0.0 -174.5 -120.3 4.7 -126.6 -125.2 -1.3 63.4 0.0 4.4 -137.3 -95.8 -41.5 -6.9 2.5 -9.4

Total installed capacity is projected to reach 960 GW in 2030 (137 GW or 12.5% lower than in the Baseline scenario). The significantly less pronounced decline compared to

44

that of electricity generation (-26.3% from Baseline levels) reflects the higher deployment of renewables capacity (involving lower utilisation rates). As illustrated in Table 1.4-4, renewables capacity increases on top of Baseline levels to reach close to 550 GW in 2030 (including biomass-waste fired power plants) or 57.2% of total installed capacity. The most pronounced growth on top of Baseline levels is projected for wind turbines with their capacity exceeding 250 GW in 2030 (+69 GW from Baseline levels). Capacities of solid fired and gas fired power plants exhibit a similar decline in absolute terms from Baseline levels in the long run (-120 GW and -127 GW respectively) remaining rather stable at 2020 levels in the horizon to 2030. Nuclear capacity exhibits a strong decline from Baseline levels in the long run being limited to 40 GW in 2030 (4.2% of total installed capacity from 9.2% in the Baseline scenario). The stronger penetration of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector in combination to the adoption of more efficient power generation technologies leads to an improvement of the overall power generation efficiency with fuel input in power plants declining at rates well above those of electricity generation over the projection period (see Table 1.4-5). Overall power generation efficiency is projected to reach 53.5% in 2030 (from 48.6% in the Baseline scenario), with the efficiency of thermal power plants reaching 46% in 2030 compared to 47.5% in the Baseline as biomass and waste fired power plants remain less efficient than those that they replace in the presence of policies promoting renewable energy forms. Consumption of biomass and waste in power generation increases by 60% in 2010 and 92.5% in 2030. The most pronounced decline from Baseline levels is projected for solid fuels (reaching -68% in 2030) whereas transformation input of gas declines at slower rates (-38% in 2030). Nuclear fuel also declines substantially in the long run reaching -65% from Baseline levels in 2030. Table 1.4-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case Mtoe Solids Oil products Gas Biomass-waste Nuclear energy Geothermal heat Total EU15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 214.5 41.9 105.5 21.2 237.7 2.9 623.7 542.2 81.5 1250.0 997.8 252.2

2010 177.0 31.8 121.2 46.7 248.8 13.3 638.8 550.0 88.8 1100.4 866.3 234.1

% change from baseline 2020 99.3 21.4 122.6 101.0 161.5 20.3 526.1 441.8 84.2 759.8 625.6 134.2

2030 77.2 22.5 97.0 133.7 73.5 23.5 427.4 350.6 76.8 614.7 534.6 80.2

2010 -17.6 0.6 -20.7 60.3 0.0 261.2 -6.2 -6.4 -5.1 -17.1 -17.9 -14.1

2020 -50.0 -8.0 -32.9 88.4 -29.4 339.5 -23.9 -24.4 -21.3 -41.7 -39.2 -51.2

1.4.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks Lower electricity and steam requirements combined with changes in the fuel mix of the EU-25 power generation sector lead to CO2 emissions reductions from the power generation sector of -17.1% from Baseline levels in 2010 up to -55.9% in 2030. Improvements in terms of carbon intensity in electricity and steam generation reach 14.9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 45.3% in 2030. In 2010 the supply side accounts for 72% of total CO2 emissions reduction achieved from Baseline levels, a share dropping to 65% by 2030 (see Figure 1.4-4).

45

2030 -67.9 13.7 -37.6 92.5 -65.1 347.4 -39.0 -39.9 -34.8 -55.9 -52.5 -70.1

Figure 1.4-4: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0 -102 -200 -256 -400

-233 -361

-363

-358

-426

-600

-449

-596 -594

-800

-770 -836

-1000

-1200

-960 Demand side Supply side Total

-1196 -1286

-1400 Source: PRIMES.

Total CO2 emissions decrease substantially in the “Energy efficiency and high renewables case”. In 2010 they are 7% lower than they had been in 1990, while the reduction below the 1990 level amounts to even 29% in 2030. Concluding, the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case reveals a much more favourable EU-25 energy system outlook with energy requirements declining by 2030 to levels slightly below those observed in 1990. CO2 emissions, too, remain well below 1990 levels over the projection period (-6.7% in 2010, -21.4% in 2020 and -29.3% in 2030) contributing substantially to Kyoto objectives for 2010 and possibly more ambitious ones for later periods. Furthermore, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case import dependency also improves from Baseline levels reaching 59.2% in 2030 (5.7 percentage points below Baseline levels).

1.4.3. “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” scenario results for EU-2526 The “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case combines the assumptions of the “Energy efficiency” case with those of the “12% renewables share in 2010” case in the same manner as that described for the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case. In the presence of policies towards energy efficiency, overall primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system decline substantially from Baseline levels (see Table 1.4-6). Demand for renewable energy forms exhibits a strong growth on top of baseline levels over the projection period (+43.8% in 2010, +49.4% in 2030), while a decline of energy requirements for all other energy forms is projected. In the short term, the most

26

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in Appendix 5.

46

pronounced changes occur in the use of solid fuels and natural gas (-13.8% and -9.1 % from Baseline levels in 2010 respectively). In 2030 the use of nuclear energy declines by -59.1% from Baseline levels followed by solid fuels (-54.0% in 2030). Close to 73% of additional renewable energy requirements are satisfied by biomass/waste in 2010, a share further growing to 75% in 2030. Table 1.4-6: Evolution of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system in the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case Mtoe Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable En. Sources Total EU-15 NMS Mt CO2 emitted EU-15 NMS Source: PRIMES.

2000 306.5 634.7 376.3 237.7 96.5 1653.8 1456.9 196.9 3674.1 3127.0 547.1

2010 247.3 637.7 420.4 248.8 206.8 1763.0 1544.2 218.8 3535.0 3000.3 534.7

% change from baseline 2020 164.1 587.8 421.8 175.9 291.3 1642.5 1419.9 222.6 3055.0 2615.4 439.5

2030 134.9 550.0 405.8 86.1 344.8 1523.5 1299.6 223.9 2797.8 2398.6 399.2

2010 -13.8 -4.6 -9.1 0.0 43.8 -2.7 -2.7 -3.0 -8.9 -8.8 -9.5

2020 -36.8 -12.3 -20.4 -23.0 49.0 -12.9 -12.6 -14.9 -22.2 -20.8 -30.0

In 2010, the share of renewable energy forms in total primary energy needs increases from 7.9% in the Baseline scenario to 11.7% in the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case. By 2030, the renewables share reaches 22.6% (+10.5 percentage points above Baseline levels). Lower energy requirements in combination to the higher exploitation of renewable energy sources limits CO2 emissions in the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case at -9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -29% in 2030. In addition import dependency also improves, reaching 61.1% in 2030 (from 64.9% in the Baseline scenario. In the demand side, energy requirements decline by -2.4% from Baseline levels in 2010, reaching -15.6% in 2030. Policies stimulating the use of renewable energy lead to changes in the fuel mix with higher use of biomass and waste and to a less extent solar energy occurring to the detriment of all other energy forms. Furthermore, the share of biofuels in gasoline and diesel demand increases significantly from Baseline levels to reach 6.4% in 2010 and 14.3% in 2030 (+2.5 and +6.1 percentage points respectively from Baseline levels). As a combined effect of the above changes CO2 emissions in the demand side are projected to decline from Baseline levels by -4.1% in 2010 and by 15.9% in 2030. Industry and the transport sector exhibit strong improvements of carbon intensity on top of Baseline levels, whereas a worsening of carbon intensity is projected for the tertiary and the residential sector due to the much lower demand for electricity (a carbon free energy form for the demand side). Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector. Renewable energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and solid fuels, while overall electricity generation declines significantly from Baseline levels (-4.7% in 2010, 25.8% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the long run. The most pronounced growth above Baseline levels in relative terms is projected for solar energy and geothermal heat with electricity generation from these energy forms in 2030 exceeding Baseline levels by +140% and +263%, respectively. Electricity generation from biomass and waste exhibits the highest growth in absolute terms (+98.2% in 2010, +86.2% in 2030), whereas electricity generation from wind energy is projected to increase by +37.5% in 2010 and +25.2% in 2030. Natural gas and solid fuels are mostly affected in the short term, with electricity generation from these energy forms declining by -22.6% and -18.7% respectively in 2010. In 2030 electricity generation from nuclear energy is -59% lower than in the Baseline scenario, whereas the corresponding decline

47

2030 -54.0 -14.1 -21.6 -59.1 49.4 -19.6 -19.2 -21.9 -29.3 -27.6 -38.0

for solids fired electricity reaches -61.6% and that of gas fired electricity -37.8%. Thus, the renewables share in electricity generation increases to 24.6% in 2010 (from 18.1% in the Baseline) and 51.0% in 2030 (from 27.6% in the Baseline). In 2030, 17.7% of electricity would come from wind and solar, while biomass, waste, geothermal and hydro would contribute 33.4% CO2 emissions in the power generation sector decline by -16.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -51.4% in 2030 clearly illustrating the strong changes that take place in this sector in the presence of strong policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy forms. Thus, CO2 emissions reduction from Baseline levels in the supply side accounts for 71.6% of total CO2 emissions reduction in 2010 and 66.6% in 2030. In the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” CO2 emissions in absolute terms exhibit a continuous decline from 1990 levels in the period to 2030 (-6.4% in 2010, -19.1% in 2020 and -25.9% in 2030). Concluding, as was the case for the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the combination of strong policies towards energy efficiency and the promotion of renewable energy forms allows for a reduction of overall energy requirements in the horizon to 2030 slightly below 1990 levels, and a favourable development for CO2 emissions (remaining below 1990 levels from 2010 onwards., In addition, there is a significant reduction of the EU-25 energy import dependency from Baseline levels (61% instead of 65% in 2030).

48

Glossary Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed or produced (t of CO2/tonne of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh) Clean coal units: A number of innovative, new technologies designed to use coal in a more efficient and cost-effective manner while enhancing environmental protection. Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed combustion (PFBC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), coal liquefaction and coal gasification. CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/MEuro'00). Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a common energy source to produce both electricity and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel efficiency (see also: CHP). Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A technology which combines gas turbines and steam turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical power, which drives the generator, and heat in the form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed to a boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a conventional steam turbine, which is also connected to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine. Combined Heat and Power: This means cogeneration of useful heat and power (electricity) in a single process. In contrast to conventional power plants that convert only a limited part of the primary energy into electricity with the remainder of this energy being discharged as waste heat. CHP makes use of large parts of this energy for e.g. industrial processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP therefore improves energy efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant). Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A measure of the efficiency of converting a fuel to electricity and useful heat; heat and electricity output divided by the calorific value of input fuel times 100 (for expressing this ratio in percent). Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is computed on the basis of energy use per tonne-km. Given the existence of inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics, absolute numbers (especially at the level of individual Member States) might be misleading in some cases. For that reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases. Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight transport). Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in refineries, electricity and steam generation and in other transformation processes; it does not include the energy input for transformation as such. Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, non-ferrous, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and paper and pulp industries. Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in the transport, industrial, household and tertiary sectors with tertiary comprising services and agriculture. It excludes deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power plants) and to the energy branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above final demand sectors.

49

Freight transport activity: Expressed in tonne kilometres (1 Gtkm = 109 tkm); one tkm = one tonne transported a distance of one km. It should be noted that inland navigation includes both waterborne inland transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However, international short sea shipping is not included in the above category as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers. Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The fuel cell provides a direct current voltage that can be used to power various electrical devices including motors and lights. Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in electricity, CHP plants and heat plants. Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, coke-oven gas and gasworks gas. Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of a generator, prime mover, or other electric power production equipment under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer. Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover is a steam turbine. The turbine is driven either by steam produced from hot water or by natural steam that derives its energy from heat in rocks or fluids beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is extracted by drilling and/or pumping. Gross Inland Consumption: Quantity of energy consumed within the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary production + recovered products + imports +/- stock changes – exports – bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied to sea-going ships). Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to GDP – (toe/MEuro'00). Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of moving water. For the purposes of these energy balance projections, hydro excludes pumped storage plants that generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an elevated storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess generating capacity is available. Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy sources. Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy carriers in petrochemicals and other sectors, such as chemical feedstocks, lubricants and asphalt for road construction. Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and sustained at a specific rate. They include new nuclear designs (such as the EPR as well as the AP1000 and AP600) with passive safety features (which reduce core fusion probability from 10-5/year of existing nuclear plants to less than 5.10-7/year). Oil: Includes refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, crude oil, naphtha and feedstocks. Open cycle units: A turbine connected to an electrical generator. Less efficient than a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) because it does not recover and use the heat of the exhaust gases. Open cycle units include polyvalent units, monovalent coal-lignite units, monovalent oil-gas units and monovalent biomass-waste units. Passenger transport activity: Expressed in passenger kilometres (1 Gpkm = 109 pkm); one pkm relates to one person travelling a distance of one km. Passenger transport activity includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads (public and private), by rail, in airplanes and on ships as far as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as domestic sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according to

50

EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers. Primary production: Total indigenous production. Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that are naturally replenishing but flowlimited. They are virtually inexhaustible in duration but limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. Renewable energy resources include: biomass, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave and tidal energy. Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar energy into electricity) plants. Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch and benzol). Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for which the evaporator part of the boiler operates at pressures above 22.1 MegaPascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this case is a single phase fluid with homogenous properties and thus there is no need to separate steam from water in a drum, allowing for higher efficiency in power generation. Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating station in which the source of energy for the prime mover is heat. Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines interconnected to a common utility system through a system of transformers, distribution lines, and (usually) one substation. Operation, control, and maintenance functions are often centralised through a network of computerised monitoring systems, supplemented by visual inspection.

51

52

APPENDIX 1: “Energy efficiency” case results Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

53

EU25: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

877543 351650 120396 139723 196920 68855 23391 42151 67 145 3101

898598 204139 163631 196665 237664 96499 28982 61865 1913 417 3322

826724 152787 116792 170188 248776 138180 29457 89092 14042 1420 4168

632443 106879 51713 98046 200621 175184 31220 115156 21454 2323 5031

552129 88247 43185 78730 137079 204888 33165 133730 29483 3445 5066

-9693 -1740 -386 -1990 0 -5576 -421 -3316 -1744 -70 -25

-74078 -24203 -1246 -303 -28018 -20309 -983 -14035 -4788 -423 -79

-132973 -31950 -264 -1076 -73729 -25954 -716 -15150 -8458 -949 -680

-1.2 -1.1 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 -3.9 -1.4 -3.6 -11.0 -4.7 -0.6

-10.5 -18.5 -2.4 -0.3 -12.3 -10.4 -3.1 -10.9 -18.2 -15.4 -1.6

-19.4 -26.6 -0.6 -1.3 -35.0 -11.2 -2.1 -10.2 -22.3 -21.6 -11.8

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

711300 75449 510017 479112 30905 123653 2181

801061 94307 518147 496826 21321 186463 2144

991733 126411 586374 547910 38464 276720 2228

1082122 107422 607844 578465 29378 364765 2090

1046818 104551 582006 558641 23364 358144 2117

-32542 -5876 -13324 -13447 123 -13333 -9

-149569 -20972 -62021 -58210 -3812 -66545 -31

-218749 -68368 -70444 -67609 -2835 -79852 -85

-3.2 -4.4 -2.2 -2.4 0.3 -4.6 -0.4

-12.1 -16.3 -9.3 -9.1 -11.5 -15.4 -1.5

-17.3 -39.5 -10.8 -10.8 -10.8 -18.2 -3.9

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1556194 431944 595746 260548 196920 2181 68855

1653841 306538 634711 376284 237664 2144 96499

1770297 279198 655008 446908 248776 2228 138180

1661689 214302 606681 462811 200621 2090 175184

1543515 192799 569759 436874 137079 2117 204888

-42235 -7617 -13710 -15323 0 -9 -5576

-223647 -45175 -63267 -66848 -28018 -31 -20309

-351722 -100318 -70707 -80928 -73729 -85 -25954

-2.3 -2.7 -2.1 -3.3 0.0 -0.4 -3.9

-11.9 -17.4 -9.4 -12.6 -12.3 -1.5 -10.4

-18.6 -34.2 -11.0 -15.6 -35.0 -3.9 -11.2

27.8 38.3 16.7 12.7 4.4

18.5 38.4 22.8 14.4 5.8

15.8 37.0 25.2 14.1 7.8

12.9 36.5 27.9 12.1 10.5

12.5 36.9 28.3 8.9 13.3

-0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.1

-0.9 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2

-3.0 3.1 1.0 -2.2 1.1

-0.3 0.3 -1.0 2.4 -1.6

-6.3 2.7 -0.9 -0.4 1.7

-19.2 9.2 3.6 -20.2 9.0

2455674 780056 272788 1402830

2900835 921193 359249 1620392

3364410 964265 507374 1892770

3366592 777609 616752 1972232

3323947 531312 737048 2055587

-118776 0 -25169 -93606

-639183 -1042652 -108598 -285779 -67099 -106676 -463486 -650197

-3.4 0.0 -4.7 -4.7

-16.0 -12.3 -9.8 -19.0

-23.9 -35.0 -12.6 -24.0

355362 246377 48954 47057 10201 2774 0

385987 214488 41870 105480 21211 2939 0

414501 208037 31830 143928 27022 3685 0

387048 155934 21930 157839 46737 4608 0

363472 142205 22729 126149 67697 4693 0

-17740 -6913 197 -8899 -2125 0 0

-75723 -42567 -1381 -24892 -6882 0 0

-126566 -98106 2934 -29099 -1727 -568 0

-4.1 -3.2 0.6 -5.8 -7.3 0.0

-16.4 -21.4 -5.9 -13.6 -12.8 0.0

-25.8 -40.8 14.8 -18.7 -2.5 -10.8

797634 642275 2 31035 124322

796450 710448 637 17261 68104

797787 714780 16812 14804 51391

757720 672762 31382 9241 44335

720087 638518 36393 7996 37180

-15110 -14142 19 -446 -542

-66375 -61263 378 -4576 -914

-76978 -69585 18 -6737 -674

-1.9 -1.9 0.1 -2.9 -1.0

-8.1 -8.3 1.2 -33.1 -2.0

-9.7 -9.8 0.1 -45.7 -1.8 -14.9

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79833

72580

66501

-1664

-8586

-11633

-2.0

-10.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107943

111197

112173

96

-3

9

0.1

0.0

0.0

1021913

1095359

1205270

1184217

1155370

-32736

-154287

-215083

-2.6

-11.5

-15.7

341087 216809 124278 261006 146622 273198

330062 211616 118446 273302 158975 333020

354118 219619 134500 302314 175858 372980

370498 221969 148529 279923 166051 367745

382274 219584 162689 260045 154639 358412

-2302 -1141 -1161 -9652 -12629 -8153

-11904 -6423 -5481 -58818 -45805 -37760

-9292 -5348 -3944 -91240 -70677 -43875

-0.6 -0.5 -0.9 -3.1 -6.7 -2.1

-3.1 -2.8 -3.6 -17.4 -21.6 -9.3

-2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -26.0 -31.4 -10.9

123937 428121 200242 176468 63092 30053

56633 468312 251885 211352 68712 38465

44926 505024 272220 250298 77245 55558

38135 472779 272848 254484 83662 62309

32701 444413 274603 254414 87525 61713

-276 -12318 -6955 -9012 -2932 -1244

-1285 -57117 -36878 -48433 -4029 -6545

-1323 -67423 -46795 -79629 -7800 -12113

-0.6 -2.4 -2.5 -3.5 -3.7 -2.2

-3.3 -10.8 -11.9 -16.0 -4.6 -9.5

-3.9 -13.2 -14.6 -23.8 -8.2 -16.4

3776.1 1362.6 141.5 698.9 506.1 274.2 792.7

3674.1 1294.9 144.9 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9

3775.3 1312.4 120.9 576.3 468.2 246.6 1050.9

3404.1 1089.4 95.7 568.8 414.4 232.9 1002.8

3156.3 962.0 80.1 558.0 372.5 221.1 962.8

-106.6 -49.4 -3.0 -0.7 -14.5 -15.3 -23.7

-524.5 -243.8 -18.2 -26.4 -80.5 -42.9 -112.7

-798.7 -462.1 -19.6 -11.9 -114.2 -60.8 -130.1

-2.7 -3.6 -2.4 -0.1 -3.0 -5.8 -2.2

-13.4 -18.3 -16.0 -4.4 -16.3 -15.6 -10.1

-20.2 -32.4 -19.6 -2.1 -23.5 -21.6 -11.9

100.0

97.3

100.0

90.1

83.6

-2.8

-13.9

-21.2

-2.7

-13.4

-20.2

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

54

EU25: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788 7294.7 213.3 3.53 5571 2.43 8.57 517.7 44.7

452.915 8947.0 184.8 3.65 6405 2.22 8.11 410.7 47.2

464.054 10946.8 161.7 3.81 7250 2.13 8.14 344.9 54.5

469.270 13656.3 121.7 3.54 7174 2.05 7.25 249.3 63.1

469.365 16051.4 96.2 3.29 7082 2.04 6.72 196.6 65.5

0.000 0.0 -3.9 -0.09 -256 -0.01 -0.23 -9.7 -0.5

0.000 0.0 -16.4 -0.48 -1362 -0.04 -1.12 -38.4 -0.4

0.000 0.0 -21.9 -0.75 -2221 -0.04 -1.70 -49.8 0.6

0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 -3.4 -0.4 -2.7 -2.7 -0.9

0.0 0.0 -11.9 -11.9 -16.0 -1.7 -13.4 -13.4 -0.7

0.0 0.0 -18.6 -18.6 -23.9 -2.0 -20.2 -20.2 0.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

83.8 85.8 84.9 99.4

76.8 77.9 74.2 91.0

64.6 58.3 55.4 71.9

57.1 46.3 43.5 59.6

-0.5 -2.5 -5.3 -2.0

-2.1 -12.3 -15.3 -7.4

-1.4 -16.2 -19.9 -7.3

-0.6 -3.1 -6.7 -2.1

-3.1 -17.4 -21.6 -9.3

-2.4 -26.0 -31.4 -10.9

0.41 2.22 2.05 1.94 1.87 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.72 1.65 1.54 2.91

0.26 1.94 1.63 1.55 1.40 2.82

0.22 1.87 1.54 1.48 1.40 2.73

0.19 1.83 1.46 1.43 1.43 2.69

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.02 -0.02 0.02 0.10 -0.02

-0.04 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.18 -0.03

-0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 -0.1

-5.6 1.1 -1.4 1.3 7.7 -0.9

-15.9 3.1 0.3 3.4 14.3 -1.1

661750 141082 97168 12785 176 410539 112958 188879 131875 74302 14462 0 1022

786486 136430 102720 71746 1658 473932 144768 154473 234289 63627 20187 0 1356

805508 108002 106345 108239 4850 478072 201768 122265 259090 48476 46725 0 1517

858206 65240 110586 141356 10364 530661 261321 147480 262992 38993 79720 0 1476

-24021 0 -1214 -6646 0 -16161 -6103 -2063 -11149 -2422 -527 0 0

-137073 -8934 -2272 -19385 0 -106482 -7193 -34540 -62118 546 -10369 0 0

-238086 -35976 -1615 -41575 0 -158919 13321 -63756 -97142 4027 -1881 0 -167

-3.0 0.0 -1.2 -8.5 0.0 -3.3 -4.0 -1.3 -4.5 -3.7 -2.5

-14.5 -7.6 -2.1 -15.2 0.0 -18.2 -3.4 -22.0 -19.3 1.1 -18.2

-21.7 -35.5 -1.4 -22.7 0.0 -23.0 5.4 -30.2 -27.0 11.5 -2.3

0.0

0.0

-10.2

36.1 50.0 14.5 46.5 31.8 14.7

39.3 48.8 17.9 46.5 28.7 17.8

43.8 47.7 28.2 47.8 23.1 24.7

48.6 44.2 38.4 48.7 16.0 32.7

-0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 -0.3

-1.4 -0.8 6.3 2.3 1.0 1.3

1.2 -1.3 14.2 2.4 -2.7 5.1

-0.6 -0.5 0.3 1.6 3.5 -1.5

-3.2 -1.7 29.1 5.0 4.4 5.6

2.4 -2.8 58.3 5.2 -14.6 18.6

5466.3 480.1 4253.1 402.7 296.9 33.6

6448.7 495.9 5014.8 447.1 451.2 39.7

7391.4 483.6 5767.0 481.8 613.6 45.4

8101.9 471.9 6327.6 510.8 742.3 49.3

-0.7 0.9 -1.8 0.6 -0.4 0.0

-10.6 3.1 -13.7 3.2 -3.0 -0.1

-28.3 5.1 -31.0 5.2 -7.4 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.7 -0.5 -0.2

-0.3 1.1 -0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4640.8 504.1 3529.3 411.9 166.3 29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15751

17261

-1.4

-22.6

-60.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1753.9 1034.1 461.7 258.1

2131.5 1486.3 374.2 271.0

2580.6 1888.8 402.7 289.2

3035.6 2294.7 424.1 316.8

3403.9 2623.2 442.5 338.2

-1.6 -2.4 0.7 0.2

-13.2 -17.0 2.7 1.2

-28.0 -34.2 3.6 2.6

-0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1

-0.4 -0.7 0.6 0.4

-0.8 -1.3 0.8 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.1

-1.0

-1.7

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

273198 7841 138202 82444 9066 28932 6714

333020 7018 158349 108068 8897 45320 5368

372980 6983 169421 135095 8126 47559 5796

367745 5903 163722 142300 6031 43742 6049

358412 4923 152417 142936 5593 46441 6103

-8153 -38 -755 -553 -181 -6615 -12

-37760 -371 -5179 -14531 -487 -17035 -156

-43875 -398 -7434 -21450 -426 -13918 -250

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.2 -12.2 -0.2

-9.3 -5.9 -3.1 -9.3 -7.5 -28.0 -2.5

-10.9 -7.5 -4.7 -13.0 -7.1 -23.1 -3.9

39.3 51.7

39.9 53.9

35.8 55.1

29.6 49.1

25.8 43.9

-1.2 -0.2

-3.1 -4.7

-2.6 -6.0

-3.2 -0.4

-9.3 -8.7

-9.2 -12.1

Source: PRIMES

55

EU15: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

707946 210737 117782 132975 181439 65014 22275 39426 67 145 3101

761643 100172 160552 190581 222846 87491 27627 54257 1912 381 3315

701067 67090 114437 164432 231522 123586 27997 76533 13637 1265 4154

523512 44463 49596 92808 183033 153612 29568 96014 20927 2089 5014

446467 32716 41357 73967 119731 178697 31311 110616 28646 3076 5048

-8570 -1169 -380 -1988 0 -5033 -419 -2786 -1744 -60 -25

-56987 -15532 -1232 -227 -24128 -15867 -975 -10210 -4251 -356 -76

-105266 -25901 -241 -1049 -57856 -20219 -703 -11791 -6261 -790 -674

-1.2 -1.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 -3.9 -1.5 -3.5 -11.3 -4.5 -0.6

-9.8 -25.9 -2.4 -0.2 -11.6 -9.4 -3.2 -9.6 -16.9 -14.6 -1.5

-19.1 -44.2 -0.6 -1.4 -32.6 -10.2 -2.2 -9.6 -17.9 -20.4 -11.8

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

643284 89663 458793 435365 23428 92495 2333

741591 110142 472543 455606 16937 155262 3644

897249 130706 530874 501580 29294 231851 3818

966535 104066 548115 528260 19855 310598 3756

928349 100830 519140 505736 13404 303491 4889

-27176 -4375 -11886 -12252 367 -10910 -5

-128365 -19411 -55448 -52871 -2577 -53488 -18

-182494 -59123 -60278 -59165 -1113 -63020 -72

-2.9 -3.2 -2.2 -2.4 1.3 -4.5 -0.1

-11.7 -15.7 -9.2 -9.1 -11.5 -14.7 -0.5

-16.4 -37.0 -10.4 -10.5 -7.7 -17.2 -1.5

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1319965 303612 544159 223408 181439 2333 65014

1456936 215739 587926 339289 222846 3644 87491

1551299 197796 598294 396283 231522 3818 123586

1438446 148529 546109 403406 183033 3756 153612

1320740 133546 506420 377458 119731 4889 178697

-35746 -5544 -12266 -12898 0 -5 -5033

-185352 -34944 -56680 -53715 -24128 -18 -15867

-287760 -85025 -60519 -64069 -57856 -72 -20219

-2.3 -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 0.0 -0.1 -3.9

-11.4 -19.0 -9.4 -11.8 -11.6 -0.5 -9.4

-17.9 -38.9 -10.7 -14.5 -32.6 -1.5 -10.2

23.0 41.2 16.9 13.7 4.9

14.8 40.4 23.3 15.3 6.0

12.8 38.6 25.5 14.9 8.0

10.3 38.0 28.0 12.7 10.7

10.1 38.3 28.6 9.1 13.5

-0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1

-1.0 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.2

-3.5 3.1 1.1 -2.0 1.2

-0.5 0.2 -0.9 2.3 -1.7

-8.6 2.3 -0.4 -0.3 2.3

-25.6 8.8 4.1 -17.9 9.4

2138940 720059 259810 1159070

2576502 863760 343478 1369264

2979330 897389 485670 1596270

2943479 709442 591256 1642782

2870466 464073 705086 1701307

-103420 0 -25145 -78275

-541263 -93519 -60767 -386976

-864979 -224246 -80980 -559753

-3.4 0.0 -4.9 -4.7

-15.5 -11.6 -9.3 -19.1

-23.2 -32.6 -10.3 -24.8

282186 184170 43718 41697 9827 2774 0

319336 158097 38588 99188 20524 2939 0

341219 151196 29098 133072 24170 3685 0

315566 108669 19901 143235 39154 4608 0

297990 100156 20993 116233 55915 4693 0

-14761 -5159 398 -7863 -2136 0 0

-61658 -34137 -1057 -20618 -5847 0 0

-107572 -84030 3520 -23602 -2892 -568 0

-4.1 -3.3 1.4 -5.6 -8.1 0.0

-16.3 -23.9 -5.0 -12.6 -13.0 0.0

-26.5 -45.6 20.1 -16.9 -4.9 -10.8

704402 595036 2 13085 96279

725664 665476 604 8717 50868

726841 665160 15543 6938 39199

685271 619356 28491 3962 33462

645943 582573 32489 3234 27647

-13108 -12926 17 203 -402

-57581 -55830 298 -1499 -549

-63878 -61039 -31 -2413 -395

-1.8 -1.9 0.1 3.0 -1.0

-7.8 -8.3 1.1 -27.5 -1.6

-9.0 -9.5 -0.1 -42.7 -1.4 -15.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67507

60496

54575

-1338

-7025

-9633

-1.9

-10.4

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

97149

97788

96796

87

-9

14

0.1

0.0

0.0

866453

970663

1058562

1026722

989851

-28173

-128383

-174075

-2.6

-11.1

-15.0

272481 182306 90175 220020 121346 252606

284781 182967 101814 238404 137376 310102

304731 190506 114225 260942 151369 341520

313527 190079 123447 237692 141736 333767

318733 185994 132739 218045 130501 322572

-2038 -1009 -1029 -8179 -10252 -7704

-9531 -5211 -4320 -49306 -35481 -34065

-7400 -4260 -3140 -75069 -53988 -37618

-0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -3.0 -6.3 -2.2

-3.0 -2.7 -3.4 -17.2 -20.0 -9.3

-2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -25.6 -29.3 -10.4

79761 393325 173014 155929 36558 27865

35330 434547 226415 191711 50708 31953

28425 461787 238943 225243 57796 46368

24826 425861 235351 225468 63760 51456

20746 395132 233009 223319 66912 50732

-199 -11349 -5723 -7921 -2095 -885

-488 -51395 -30142 -41138 -996 -4223

-866 -58722 -38091 -65777 -2079 -8539

-0.7 -2.4 -2.3 -3.4 -3.5 -1.9

-1.9 -10.8 -11.4 -15.4 -1.5 -7.6

-4.0 -12.9 -14.1 -22.8 -3.0 -14.4

3068.4 1021.1 127.2 545.2 419.7 220.7 734.5

3127.0 1014.7 127.0 471.6 401.5 207.4 904.8

3202.4 1025.9 110.1 475.3 414.4 213.3 963.3

2866.8 845.0 86.4 459.1 365.3 199.7 911.2

2641.5 750.0 71.7 439.1 327.0 185.8 868.0

-88.5 -37.8 -2.6 -0.4 -12.8 -12.3 -22.4

-434.3 -191.5 -16.3 -21.5 -69.6 -33.6 -101.8

-669.5 -382.7 -17.8 -12.1 -98.2 -46.8 -111.9

-2.7 -3.6 -2.3 -0.1 -3.0 -5.5 -2.3

-13.2 -18.5 -15.9 -4.5 -16.0 -14.4 -10.0

-20.2 -33.8 -19.9 -2.7 -23.1 -20.1 -11.4

100.0

101.9

104.4

93.4

86.1

-2.9

-14.2

-21.8

-2.7

-13.2

-20.2

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

56

EU15: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749 6981.9 189.1 3.61 5848 2.32 8.39 439.5 47.5

378.062 8572.2 170.0 3.85 6815 2.15 8.27 364.8 49.5

390.652 10391.5 149.3 3.97 7627 2.06 8.20 308.2 56.1

397.458 12835.7 112.1 3.62 7406 1.99 7.21 223.3 64.9

398.737 14948.8 88.4 3.31 7199 2.00 6.62 176.7 67.5

0.000 0.0 -3.4 -0.09 -265 -0.01 -0.23 -8.5 -0.4

0.000 0.0 -14.4 -0.47 -1362 -0.04 -1.09 -33.8 -0.5

0.000 0.0 -19.2 -0.72 -2169 -0.06 -1.68 -44.8 0.7

0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 -3.4 -0.4 -2.7 -2.7 -0.8

0.0 0.0 -11.4 -11.4 -15.5 -2.0 -13.2 -13.2 -0.7

0.0 0.0 -17.9 -17.9 -23.2 -2.8 -20.2 -20.2 1.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

90.9 88.8 88.7 100.0

84.8 80.6 77.7 90.8

71.2 60.1 57.9 71.9

62.7 47.5 45.4 59.6

-0.6 -2.5 -5.3 -2.0

-2.2 -12.5 -14.5 -7.3

-1.5 -16.4 -18.8 -7.0

-0.7 -3.0 -6.3 -2.2

-3.0 -17.2 -20.0 -9.3

-2.3 -25.6 -29.3 -10.4

0.39 2.22 2.00 1.91 1.82 2.91

0.27 2.05 1.66 1.68 1.51 2.92

0.24 1.95 1.56 1.59 1.41 2.82

0.20 1.88 1.46 1.54 1.41 2.73

0.18 1.84 1.38 1.50 1.42 2.69

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.02 0.09 -0.02

-0.04 0.04 -0.01 0.05 0.16 -0.03

-0.6 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 -0.1

-6.4 0.7 -1.6 1.4 7.0 -0.9

-18.3 2.4 -0.4 3.4 12.9 -1.1

588083 131758 90794 12769 176 352586 88543 144882 125804 67470 13407 0 1022

702705 127644 95906 69487 1645 408023 119053 115160 218267 56542 16698 0 1356

711890 99216 99030 105020 4712 403911 169282 89531 233293 43637 35933 0 1517

732739 56563 102849 136107 9827 427393 206471 102940 228137 35283 59557 0 1476

-21464 0 -1207 -6645 0 -13612 -5646 -1360 -9686 -2439 -127 0 0

-116201 -6982 -2238 -16311 0 -90670 -6267 -27618 -56329 1908 -8631 0 0

-196814 -28105 -1546 -30703 0 -136460 12458 -51245 -87243 5867 -3672 0 -167

-3.0 0.0 -1.2 -8.7 0.0 -3.2 -4.5 -1.2 -4.2 -4.1 -0.8

-14.0 -6.6 -2.2 -13.4 0.0 -18.3 -3.6 -23.6 -19.4 4.6 -19.4

-21.2 -33.2 -1.5 -18.4 0.0 -24.2 6.4 -33.2 -27.7 19.9 -5.8

0.0

0.0

-10.2

36.9 50.0 13.4 49.4 33.5 15.9

40.2 48.4 16.7 49.1 30.1 19.0

44.8 47.2 26.6 50.2 24.1 26.1

49.1 44.7 35.2 50.8 16.2 34.6

-0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 -0.4

-1.5 -0.8 6.2 2.3 1.1 1.3

1.2 -1.2 13.5 3.1 -2.3 5.3

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 1.3 3.5 -1.8

-3.3 -1.7 30.2 4.9 4.6 5.2

2.4 -2.5 62.4 6.4 -12.3 18.2

4997.7 401.8 3928.0 351.3 283.6 33.0

5831.5 423.2 4544.5 396.7 428.0 39.1

6637.2 416.5 5163.4 432.4 580.3 44.7

7206.8 408.6 5587.8 462.0 699.9 48.5

-0.5 0.8 -1.3 0.4 -0.4 0.0

-8.6 2.5 -11.0 2.8 -2.8 -0.1

-22.0 4.1 -23.9 4.9 -6.9 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.5 -0.2

-0.3 1.0 -0.4 1.1 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4130.1 369.0 3265.7 309.8 157.3 28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16699

18074

-1.2

-21.7

-55.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1419.2 914.2 254.9 250.1

1825.6 1309.3 249.5 266.8

2141.8 1588.9 268.0 284.9

2481.4 1887.7 281.4 312.2

2755.9 2131.7 290.6 333.6

-1.3 -1.3 -0.2 0.2

-10.0 -11.9 0.8 1.1

-20.3 -24.8 1.9 2.6

-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1

-0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.4

-0.7 -1.2 0.7 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.1

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

252606 6250 129911 75351 6970 27742 6383

310102 5860 146708 100615 7579 44025 5314

341520 5924 154529 122708 6957 45662 5739

333767 5047 147720 127847 5159 42004 5989

322572 4258 135955 126998 4849 44470 6042

-7704 -32 -653 -476 -156 -6374 -12

-34065 -310 -4449 -12643 -385 -16122 -155

-37618 -296 -4780 -18715 -285 -13296 -247

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.2 -12.2 -0.2

-9.3 -5.8 -2.9 -9.0 -6.9 -27.7 -2.5

-10.4 -6.5 -3.4 -12.8 -5.5 -23.0 -3.9

41.2 58.0

40.7 58.5

36.4 60.2

30.1 53.9

26.3 48.2

-1.2 -0.2

-3.1 -5.0

-2.5 -6.5

-3.3 -0.3

-9.5 -8.4

-8.7 -11.9

Source: PRIMES

57

NMS: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

169598 140913 2614 6749 15481 3841 1116 2725 0 0 0

136955 103966 3079 6084 14818 9008 1355 7609 1 35 8

125656 85697 2355 5757 17254 14594 1460 12559 405 155 15

108930 62416 2117 5238 17587 21572 1652 19143 526 234 17

105662 55531 1829 4762 17348 26192 1854 23113 837 369 18

-1123 -572 -6 -2 0 -543 -2 -530 0 -10 -1

-17091 -8670 -13 -77 -3890 -4441 -8 -3826 -536 -67 -4

-27707 -6049 -23 -27 -15874 -5735 -12 -3360 -2197 -159 -7

-0.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -3.6 -0.1 -4.1 0.0 -6.1 -4.8

-13.6 -12.2 -0.6 -1.4 -18.1 -17.1 -0.5 -16.7 -50.5 -22.4 -17.7

-20.8 -9.8 -1.2 -0.6 -47.8 -18.0 -0.7 -12.7 -72.4 -30.1 -26.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

68016 -14214 51224 43747 7477 31158 -152

59470 -15836 45604 41220 4384 31202 -1500

94484 -4295 55501 46331 9170 44868 -1591

115587 3356 59729 50205 9524 54167 -1665

118469 3722 62866 52905 9961 54654 -2772

-5366 -1501 -1438 -1195 -244 -2423 -4

-21204 -1561 -6573 -5338 -1235 -13057 -13

-36255 -9245 -10166 -8444 -1722 -16832 -13

-5.4 53.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -5.1 0.2

-15.5 -31.7 -9.9 -9.6 -11.5 -19.4 0.8

-23.4 -71.3 -13.9 -13.8 -14.7 -23.5 0.5

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

236229 128332 51587 37140 15481 -152 3841

196904 90799 46785 36994 14818 -1500 9008

218998 81403 56714 50625 17254 -1591 14594

223244 65772 60572 59405 17587 -1665 21572

222775 59253 63338 59416 17348 -2772 26192

-6489 -2073 -1444 -2425 0 -4 -543

-38295 -10231 -6587 -13133 -3890 -13 -4441

-63963 -15294 -10189 -16859 -15874 -13 -5735

-2.9 -2.5 -2.5 -4.6 0.0 0.2 -3.6

-14.6 -13.5 -9.8 -18.1 -18.1 0.8 -17.1

-22.3 -20.5 -13.9 -22.1 -47.8 0.5 -18.0

54.3 21.8 15.7 6.6 1.6

46.1 23.8 18.8 7.5 4.6

37.2 25.9 23.1 7.9 6.7

29.5 27.1 26.6 7.9 9.7

26.6 28.4 26.7 7.8 11.8

0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.0

0.4 1.5 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3

0.6 2.8 0.1 -3.8 0.6

0.4 0.4 -1.7 3.0 -0.7

1.4 5.7 -4.1 -4.1 -2.8

2.3 10.9 0.3 -32.8 5.6

316734 59996 12978 243760

324333 57434 15771 251128

385080 66876 21704 296500

423113 68167 25495 329450

453481 67239 31961 354280

-15356 0 -24 -15332

-97920 -15079 -6332 -76510

-177673 -61533 -25695 -90444

-3.8 0.0 -0.1 -4.9

-18.8 -18.1 -19.9 -18.8

-28.2 -47.8 -44.6 -20.3

73176 62206 5236 5360 374 0 0

66652 56391 3281 6292 687 0 0

73282 56841 2732 10856 2852 0 0

71482 47266 2029 14604 7583 0 0

65482 42049 1736 9916 11781 0 0

-2979 -1754 -201 -1036 12 0 0

-14065 -8430 -324 -4274 -1036 0 0

-18994 -14076 -586 -5497 1165 0 0

-3.9 -3.0 -6.9 -8.7 0.4

-16.4 -15.1 -13.8 -22.6 -12.0

-22.5 -25.1 -25.2 -35.7 11.0

93232 47239 0 17949 28043

70786 44972 33 8544 17236

70946 49620 1269 7866 12191

72448 53405 2891 5279 10873

74144 55945 3904 4762 9533

-2001 -1215 2 -648 -140

-8795 -5433 80 -3077 -365

-13100 -8546 50 -4324 -278

-2.7 -2.4 0.2 -7.6 -1.1

-10.8 -9.2 2.8 -36.8 -3.2

-15.0 -13.3 1.3 -47.6 -2.8 -14.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12327

12084

11927

-327

-1561

-2000

-2.6

-11.4

10089

10135

10794

13409

15377

9

5

-5

0.1

0.0

0.0

155460

124696

146709

157495

165519

-4563

-25904

-41009

-3.0

-14.1

-19.9

68606 34503 34103 40986 25276 20592

45281 28649 16632 34898 21599 22917

49387 29113 20274 41372 24489 31460

56972 31890 25082 42231 24315 33978

63541 33591 29950 42001 24138 35840

-265 -133 -132 -1472 -2376 -450

-2373 -1211 -1162 -9513 -10323 -3695

-1892 -1088 -804 -16171 -16690 -6256

-0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -3.4 -8.8 -1.4

-4.0 -3.7 -4.4 -18.4 -29.8 -9.8

-2.9 -3.1 -2.6 -27.8 -40.9 -14.9

44176 34795 27229 20539 26534 2188

21303 33764 25471 19641 18005 6512

16500 43236 33277 25055 19449 9190

13308 46918 37497 29016 19902 10853

11956 49281 41594 31095 20613 10980

-77 -969 -1232 -1091 -836 -358

-797 -5721 -6736 -7295 -3033 -2322

-457 -8701 -8704 -13852 -5721 -3574

-0.5 -2.2 -3.6 -4.2 -4.1 -3.8

-5.6 -10.9 -15.2 -20.1 -13.2 -17.6

-3.7 -15.0 -17.3 -30.8 -21.7 -24.6

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

707.7 341.5 14.3 153.7 86.4 53.5 58.2

547.1 280.2 17.9 96.1 50.6 37.2 65.1

572.9 286.6 10.9 100.9 53.7 33.2 87.6

537.3 244.4 9.3 109.6 49.2 33.2 91.5

514.8 212.0 8.4 118.8 45.5 35.3 94.8

-18.1 -11.6 -0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -2.9 -1.3

-90.2 -52.3 -1.9 -4.9 -10.9 -9.4 -10.9

-129.2 -79.4 -1.8 0.2 -16.1 -14.0 -18.3

-3.1 -3.9 -3.3 -0.3 -3.0 -8.1 -1.4

-14.4 -17.6 -17.0 -4.3 -18.1 -22.0 -10.7

-20.1 -27.2 -17.3 0.2 -26.1 -28.4 -16.2

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

81.0

75.9

72.7

-2.6

-12.8

-18.3

-3.1

-14.4

-20.1

Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other

Source: PRIMES

58

NMS: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039 312.8 755.2 3.15 4221 3.00 9.43 2262.2 28.7

74.853 374.8 525.3 2.63 4333 2.78 7.31 1459.6 30.1

73.401 555.3 394.4 2.98 5246 2.62 7.81 1031.7 42.9

71.813 820.6 272.0 3.11 5892 2.41 7.48 654.8 51.5

70.628 1102.7 202.0 3.15 6421 2.31 7.29 466.9 52.9

0.000 0.0 -11.7 -0.09 -209 -0.01 -0.25 -32.6 -1.1

0.000 0.0 -46.7 -0.53 -1364 0.01 -1.26 -110.0 -0.6

0.000 0.0 -58.0 -0.91 -2516 0.06 -1.83 -117.2 -0.8

0.0 0.0 -2.9 -2.9 -3.8 -0.2 -3.1 -3.1 -2.6

0.0 0.0 -14.6 -14.6 -18.8 0.3 -14.4 -14.4 -1.1

0.0 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 -28.2 2.9 -20.1 -20.1 -1.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

52.9 70.0 65.9 92.9

35.0 55.1 50.3 86.1

27.1 37.7 33.2 62.9

23.3 27.7 23.7 49.4

-0.2 -2.0 -4.9 -1.2

-1.1 -8.5 -14.1 -6.8

-0.7 -10.7 -16.4 -8.6

-0.5 -3.4 -8.8 -1.4

-4.0 -18.4 -29.8 -9.8

-2.9 -27.8 -40.9 -14.9

0.50 2.26 2.24 2.11 2.12 2.83

0.46 2.00 2.12 1.45 1.72 2.84

0.41 1.88 2.04 1.30 1.36 2.78

0.32 1.80 1.92 1.16 1.36 2.69

0.26 1.78 1.87 1.08 1.46 2.65

0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.14 -0.03

-0.01 0.12 0.06 0.02 0.26 -0.04

-0.5 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.0

-2.0 3.3 -0.3 0.4 11.1 -1.0

-4.7 7.3 3.2 2.3 21.2 -1.5

73667 9324 6374 16 0 57953 24415 43996 6071 6832 1055 0 0

83781 8786 6813 2259 13 65910 25715 39313 16022 7085 3489 0 0

93618 8786 7315 3218 138 74161 32486 32734 25796 4839 10792 0 0

125467 8677 7736 5249 537 103267 54849 44540 34855 3710 20163 0 0

-2557 0 -7 0 0 -2549 -457 -703 -1464 16 -399 0 0

-20872 -1952 -35 -3074 0 -15812 -926 -6923 -5789 -1363 -1738 0 0

-41271 -7871 -69 -10872 0 -22459 864 -12511 -9899 -1840 1791 0 0

-3.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.7 -1.7 -1.8 -8.4 0.2 -10.3

-18.2 -18.2 -0.5 -48.9 0.0 -17.6 -2.8 -17.5 -18.3 -22.0 -13.9

-24.8 -47.6 -0.9 -67.4 0.0 -17.9 1.6 -21.9 -22.1 -33.2 9.8

32.4 50.3 23.5 23.3 17.7 5.6

34.8 52.5 27.4 25.8 17.4 8.4

39.6 51.6 38.9 31.5 16.1 15.4

46.5 41.3 59.2 35.5 14.8 20.6

-0.4 -0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4

-1.2 -0.4 7.9 1.2 0.1 1.1

1.3 -2.0 19.3 -2.4 -5.6 3.2

-1.1 -0.9 2.8 4.2 4.0 4.6

-2.9 -0.7 25.6 3.9 0.8 7.4

2.8 -4.5 48.3 -6.3 -27.3 18.3

468.6 78.3 325.1 51.4 13.3 0.6

617.2 72.7 470.3 50.4 23.2 0.7

754.2 67.1 603.6 49.4 33.3 0.7

895.1 63.3 739.8 48.8 42.4 0.8

-0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0

-2.0 0.6 -2.8 0.4 -0.2 0.0

-6.3 1.0 -7.1 0.3 -0.5 0.0

0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.1

-0.3 0.9 -0.5 0.9 -0.6 -0.2

-0.7 1.6 -0.9 0.6 -1.2 -0.5

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

510.7 135.1 263.6 102.1 9.0 0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8408

10502

12673

-2.3

-27.3

-89.5

0.0

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

334.6 119.9 206.8 7.9

305.9 177.1 124.7 4.2

438.8 299.9 134.7 4.3

554.2 407.0 142.7 4.5

648.0 491.5 151.9 4.6

-0.3 -1.1 0.8 0.0

-3.1 -5.1 1.9 0.0

-7.7 -9.4 1.7 0.0

-0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.1

-0.6 -1.2 1.3 0.5

-1.2 -1.9 1.1 0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

675

588

-0.5

-3.8

-6.9

-0.1

-0.6

-1.2

20592 1591 8290 7093 2096 1190 331

22917 1159 11641 7453 1317 1294 54

31460 1058 14892 12386 1169 1897 56

33978 856 16001 14452 871 1737 60

35840 665 16462 15938 744 1971 61

-450 -6 -102 -77 -25 -240 0

-3695 -61 -730 -1887 -102 -913 -1

-6256 -102 -2655 -2735 -141 -621 -3

-1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -2.1 -11.2 -0.2

-9.8 -6.7 -4.4 -11.6 -10.5 -34.5 -2.2

-14.9 -13.3 -13.9 -14.6 -15.9 -24.0 -4.0

23.9 25.0

31.4 26.7

29.7 29.9

25.1 27.2

21.6 25.4

-0.6 -0.2

-2.2 -3.3

-3.6 -4.1

-1.9 -0.6

-8.2 -10.9

-14.3 -13.8

Source: PRIMES

59

EU27: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

928078 364706 128402 162645 200702 71623 25013 43297 67 145 3101

937145 214324 170011 207644 243761 101405 30483 65264 1913 417 3329

868408 164134 123038 182915 253537 144784 31296 93754 14092 1444 4199

674941 118205 57926 109223 206826 182762 33393 120276 21536 2433 5123

594797 99510 49390 88674 143565 213658 35695 139500 29658 3630 5175

-9780 -1741 -386 -1990 0 -5662 -421 -3400 -1744 -71 -27

-76128 -24785 -1246 -303 -28866 -20928 -983 -14546 -4865 -440 -95

-137848 -32014 -264 -1076 -77742 -26752 -716 -15866 -8472 -991 -707

-1.1 -1.0 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 -3.8 -1.3 -3.5 -11.0 -4.7 -0.6

-10.1 -17.3 -2.1 -0.3 -12.2 -10.3 -2.9 -10.8 -18.4 -15.3 -1.8

-18.8 -24.3 -0.5 -1.2 -35.1 -11.1 -2.0 -10.2 -22.2 -21.5 -12.0

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

749474 81418 529724 503451 26273 135011 3321

817569 98469 525771 507009 18762 191643 1687

1015461 132099 598658 563692 34965 283097 1607

1114348 113688 622046 596550 25496 377061 1553

1087836 113411 598843 579869 18974 373926 1655

-33084 -5879 -13571 -13732 161 -13625 -9

-157467 -23851 -64397 -61039 -3358 -69186 -32

-227493 -71261 -73534 -71303 -2231 -82611 -87

-3.2 -4.3 -2.2 -2.4 0.5 -4.6 -0.6

-12.4 -17.3 -9.4 -9.3 -11.6 -15.5 -2.0

-17.3 -38.6 -10.9 -10.9 -10.5 -18.1 -5.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1645474 450795 624250 294782 200702 3321 71623

1709133 320708 648970 392603 243761 1687 101405

1835588 296233 673415 466012 253537 1607 144784

1736251 231892 626934 486284 206826 1553 182762

1627002 212921 592602 462600 143565 1655 213658

-42864 -7620 -13958 -15615 0 -9 -5662

-233595 -48636 -65643 -69489 -28866 -32 -20928

-365341 -103275 -73798 -83687 -77742 -87 -26752

-2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -3.2 0.0 -0.6 -3.8

-11.9 -17.3 -9.5 -12.5 -12.2 -2.0 -10.3

-18.3 -32.7 -11.1 -15.3 -35.1 -5.0 -11.1

27.4 37.9 17.9 12.2 4.4

18.8 38.0 23.0 14.3 5.9

16.1 36.7 25.4 13.8 7.9

13.4 36.1 28.0 11.9 10.5

13.1 36.4 28.4 8.8 13.1

0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.1

-0.9 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 0.2

-2.8 3.0 1.0 -2.3 1.1

-0.2 0.3 -1.0 2.3 -1.5

-6.2 2.7 -0.7 -0.4 1.8

-17.5 8.9 3.7 -20.6 8.8

2561205 794718 291642 1474844

2993398 944823 376697 1671878

3480345 982718 529332 1968295

3503755 801659 643005 2059091

3487286 556454 768589 2162243

-121822 0 -25169 -96652

-659954 -1077131 -111887 -301334 -67998 -106840 -480069 -668957

-3.4 0.0 -4.5 -4.7

-15.9 -12.2 -9.6 -18.9

-23.6 -35.1 -12.2 -23.6

384763 261342 56108 54301 10237 2774 0

402753 225135 43691 109769 21219 2939 0

434621 221235 34071 148158 27473 3685 0

407165 169885 22840 162385 47447 4608 0

383989 158600 22987 129174 68536 4693 0

-17808 -6858 291 -9138 -2103 0 0

-80848 -45662 -1399 -26839 -6948 0 0

-131210 -100637 2851 -31129 -1727 -568 0

-3.9 -3.0 0.9 -5.8 -7.1 0.0

-16.6 -21.2 -5.8 -14.2 -12.8 0.0

-25.5 -38.8 14.2 -19.4 -2.5 -10.8

840016 673728 2 38458 127829

818581 727122 637 19291 71530

823527 736808 16923 14923 54872

785536 697059 31710 9241 47525

751317 665950 37399 7996 39972

-15463 -14426 20 -512 -545

-69423 -64093 386 -4675 -1042

-80820 -73279 29 -6849 -722

-1.8 -1.9 0.1 -3.3 -1.0

-8.1 -8.4 1.2 -33.6 -2.1

-9.7 -9.9 0.1 -46.1 -1.8 -14.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86836

79883

74318

-1750

-9472

-12748

-2.0

-10.6

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110485

114161

115598

99

-3

9

0.1

0.0

0.0

1071205

1126314

1247594

1236698

1219084

-33566

-160491

-224181

-2.6

-11.5

-15.5

372041 239834 132206 267394 151680 280091

342654 220752 121902 283857 161545 338258

371620 231973 139648 313954 178990 383029

393543 237582 155961 292870 169285 381000

412048 239561 172488 273551 157841 375643

-2450 -1229 -1221 -9926 -12910 -8279

-12978 -7189 -5789 -60579 -47461 -39473

-9888 -5771 -4117 -94108 -73861 -46324

-0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -3.1 -6.7 -2.1

-3.2 -2.9 -3.6 -17.1 -21.9 -9.4

-2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -25.6 -31.9 -11.0

128087 441141 219636 183815 67635 30892

58191 476894 259889 216343 73194 41802

47009 518972 283656 257349 80811 59797

40078 489919 288686 263623 87524 66868

34853 464764 295115 265748 91838 66765

-310 -12497 -7066 -9237 -3112 -1344

-1532 -59364 -37714 -49859 -5005 -7016

-1637 -70363 -47763 -82145 -9394 -12878

-0.7 -2.4 -2.4 -3.5 -3.7 -2.2

-3.7 -10.8 -11.6 -15.9 -5.4 -9.5

-4.5 -13.1 -13.9 -23.6 -9.3 -16.2

4009.9 1483.5 151.1 761.0 516.6 285.7 812.0

3800.2 1359.8 154.0 594.1 459.7 247.7 984.9

3934.8 1384.4 130.5 610.7 479.2 250.2 1079.9

3580.3 1160.6 103.7 610.9 427.5 236.9 1040.7

3354.6 1037.0 84.8 610.1 386.4 225.3 1010.8

-108.0 -49.7 -3.2 -0.9 -14.7 -15.5 -24.0

-551.4 -261.0 -18.1 -28.0 -82.2 -44.2 -117.7

-825.9 -477.4 -19.1 -11.4 -117.1 -63.5 -137.4

-2.7 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 -3.0 -5.8 -2.2

-13.3 -18.4 -14.9 -4.4 -16.1 -15.7 -10.2

-19.8 -31.5 -18.4 -1.8 -23.3 -22.0 -12.0

100.0

94.8

98.1

89.3

83.7

-2.7

-13.7

-20.6

-2.7

-13.3

-19.8

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

60

EU27: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712 7358.9 223.6 3.48 5418 2.44 8.48 544.9 44.6

483.520 9001.0 189.9 3.53 6191 2.22 7.86 422.2 46.7

492.838 11044.1 166.2 3.72 7062 2.14 7.98 356.3 53.9

496.408 13825.4 125.6 3.50 7058 2.06 7.21 259.0 62.3

494.784 16315.6 99.7 3.29 7048 2.06 6.78 205.6 64.7

0.000 0.0 -3.9 -0.09 -247 -0.01 -0.22 -9.8 -0.5

0.000 0.0 -16.9 -0.47 -1329 -0.04 -1.11 -39.9 -0.6

0.000 0.0 -22.4 -0.74 -2177 -0.04 -1.67 -50.6 0.4

0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 -3.4 -0.4 -2.7 -2.7 -1.0

0.0 0.0 -11.9 -11.9 -15.9 -1.7 -13.3 -13.3 -0.9

0.0 0.0 -18.3 -18.3 -23.6 -1.7 -19.8 -19.8 0.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

80.2 87.2 83.5 98.7

73.9 78.8 73.0 91.1

62.7 59.3 54.4 72.4

55.9 47.1 42.7 60.5

-0.5 -2.5 -5.3 -2.0

-2.1 -12.3 -15.3 -7.5

-1.3 -16.2 -20.0 -7.5

-0.7 -3.1 -6.7 -2.1

-3.2 -17.1 -21.9 -9.4

-2.3 -25.6 -31.9 -11.0

0.42 2.22 2.05 1.93 1.88 2.90

0.30 2.03 1.73 1.62 1.53 2.91

0.27 1.94 1.64 1.53 1.40 2.82

0.22 1.87 1.55 1.46 1.40 2.73

0.19 1.83 1.48 1.41 1.43 2.69

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.02 -0.02 0.02 0.10 -0.02

-0.03 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.18 -0.03

-0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.1

-5.8 1.1 -1.2 1.2 7.9 -0.9

-15.1 3.2 0.5 3.2 14.5 -1.1

697174 145542 105185 12786 176 433485 120284 203503 135927 78309 14723 0 1022

824024 139130 111162 72160 1661 499910 156391 168100 242223 67464 20768 0 1356

842130 111402 115609 108930 4865 501324 216189 137211 265419 49677 47500 0 1517

907823 68425 120554 142811 10435 565597 283452 165526 275383 39320 83892 0 1476

-25299 0 -1214 -6646 0 -17439 -7251 -2342 -12147 -2422 -528 0 0

-141344 -9366 -2272 -20026 0 -109679 -9528 -34824 -64279 526 -11103 0 0

-248494 -38011 -1615 -41692 0 -167175 9277 -65833 -103915 3990 -1249 0 -167

-3.0 0.0 -1.1 -8.4 0.0 -3.4 -4.4 -1.4 -4.8 -3.5 -2.5

-14.4 -7.8 -1.9 -15.5 0.0 -18.0 -4.2 -20.2 -19.5 1.1 -18.9

-21.5 -35.7 -1.3 -22.6 0.0 -22.8 3.4 -28.5 -27.4 11.3 -1.5

0.0

0.0

-10.2

35.7 49.0 14.9 46.4 31.6 14.9

38.9 48.2 18.6 46.1 28.2 17.9

43.5 47.5 29.0 47.5 22.9 24.6

48.4 43.9 39.6 48.1 16.0 32.2

-0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 -0.2

-1.3 -0.8 6.2 2.3 0.9 1.3

1.2 -1.2 13.8 2.2 -2.8 5.0

-0.8 -0.4 0.0 1.6 3.5 -1.3

-2.8 -1.7 27.5 5.0 4.3 5.7

2.5 -2.7 53.4 4.8 -15.1 18.5

5568.5 502.3 4316.4 417.8 298.4 33.6

6595.2 518.0 5124.4 458.4 454.7 39.7

7611.3 508.0 5938.8 497.3 621.8 45.4

8395.1 500.6 6553.5 532.1 759.6 49.4

-0.7 1.0 -1.9 0.6 -0.4 0.0

-11.1 3.6 -15.1 3.6 -3.1 -0.1

-29.8 6.5 -34.3 6.2 -8.0 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.2

-0.4 1.3 -0.5 1.2 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4769.3 554.1 3567.1 450.2 168.5 29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13382

15333

16967

-1.5

-22.3

-60.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1861.5 1075.1 524.7 261.8

2177.1 1507.0 396.1 274.0

2683.0 1956.4 426.8 299.8

3186.9 2406.3 449.2 331.5

3613.1 2784.6 470.3 358.2

-1.8 -2.6 0.6 0.2

-14.9 -19.0 2.8 1.3

-32.6 -39.7 4.0 3.0

-0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1

-0.5 -0.8 0.6 0.4

-0.9 -1.4 0.9 0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

231

221

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

280091 8685 139578 85770 9564 29449 7044

338258 7514 160719 109568 9423 45553 5481

383029 7434 173161 139873 8406 47954 6201

381000 6317 168719 148832 6266 44302 6563

375643 5287 158440 151745 5852 47592 6727

-8279 -39 -773 -575 -207 -6673 -13

-39473 -388 -5369 -15628 -525 -17390 -173

-46324 -457 -7864 -22935 -451 -14301 -317

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.4 -12.2 -0.2

-9.4 -5.8 -3.1 -9.5 -7.7 -28.2 -2.6

-11.0 -8.0 -4.7 -13.1 -7.2 -23.1 -4.5

38.9 50.8

39.8 53.6

35.7 55.0

29.5 49.0

25.8 44.0

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.8

-2.6 -6.0

-3.1 -0.4

-9.3 -8.9

-9.2 -12.1

Source: PRIMES

61

EU28: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

961237 377116 132112 162820 200702 88487 27003 57710 67 173 3534

963855 227617 172757 208170 243761 111549 33138 71804 1916 679 4012

893941 174342 126282 183935 253537 155846 34444 99692 14195 2184 5331

707421 131338 61308 110578 206826 197371 36922 126937 22276 4879 6357

635207 113219 53129 90094 146350 232415 39845 146986 30902 8183 6498

-10358 -2069 -386 -2044 0 -5859 -421 -3475 -1795 -125 -43

-78322 -25304 -1246 -303 -28866 -22603 -983 -15323 -4865 -1170 -262

-143513 -33193 -264 -1076 -78426 -30554 -716 -17225 -8529 -3057 -1028

-1.1 -1.2 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 -3.6 -1.2 -3.4 -11.2 -5.4 -0.8

-10.0 -16.2 -2.0 -0.3 -12.2 -10.3 -2.6 -10.8 -17.9 -19.3 -4.0

-18.4 -22.7 -0.5 -1.2 -34.9 -11.6 -1.8 -10.5 -21.6 -27.2 -13.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

776740 85626 550163 523502 26661 137693 3259

868442 107717 555056 528467 26589 203694 1975

1083712 144725 630626 593398 37229 307071 1290

1207909 126566 668838 640117 28721 411185 1321

1212357 128848 659377 636272 23106 422789 1343

-35422 -5933 -14588 -14683 95 -14891 -9

-171307 -26807 -69424 -65743 -3681 -75043 -33

-256445 -76943 -84922 -81959 -2963 -94491 -88

-3.2 -3.9 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -4.6 -0.7

-12.4 -17.5 -9.4 -9.3 -11.4 -15.4 -2.4

-17.5 -37.4 -11.4 -11.4 -11.4 -18.3 -6.2

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1704962 467717 647159 297637 200702 3259 88487

1786487 343986 679975 405241 243761 1975 111549

1928873 319067 708128 491006 253537 1290 155846

1861652 257904 676467 521763 206826 1321 197371

1791155 242068 656097 512883 146350 1343 232415

-45780 -8002 -14974 -16935 0 -9 -5859

-249629 -52110 -70670 -75347 -28866 -33 -22603

-399957 -110136 -85186 -95567 -78426 -88 -30554

-2.3 -2.4 -2.1 -3.3 0.0 -0.7 -3.6

-11.8 -16.8 -9.5 -12.6 -12.2 -2.4 -10.3

-18.3 -31.3 -11.5 -15.7 -34.9 -6.2 -11.6

27.4 38.0 17.5 11.8 5.2

19.3 38.1 22.7 13.6 6.2

16.5 36.7 25.5 13.1 8.1

13.9 36.3 28.0 11.1 10.6

13.5 36.6 28.6 8.2 13.0

0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.1

-0.8 0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.2

-2.6 2.8 0.9 -2.1 1.0

-0.1 0.3 -1.0 2.4 -1.3

-5.7 2.7 -0.9 -0.5 1.8

-15.9 8.3 3.1 -20.4 8.1

2618738 794718 314786 1509233

3118298 944823 407604 1765871

3645971 982718 567130 2096124

3724144 801659 692683 2229802

3810949 567250 831489 2412210

-129132 0 -25772 -103360

-698378 -1152948 -111887 -303983 -67998 -107493 -518493 -741473

-3.4 0.0 -4.3 -4.7

-15.8 -12.2 -8.9 -18.9

-23.2 -34.9 -11.4 -23.5

393649 266482 57294 56793 10237 2842 0

424378 235098 46624 118348 21304 3004 0

461044 231038 36034 162124 27970 3878 0

440800 185851 23943 177581 48623 4801 0

425043 180255 23874 145756 70178 4979 0

-19115 -7185 311 -10138 -2103 0 0

-86732 -48775 -1392 -29617 -6948 0 0

-143858 -106751 2829 -37641 -1727 -568 0

-4.0 -3.0 0.9 -5.9 -7.0 0.0

-16.4 -20.8 -5.5 -14.3 -12.5 0.0

-25.3 -37.2 13.4 -20.5 -2.4 -10.2

867592 696742 2 38458 132391

846345 750941 637 19291 75474

859821 769758 17013 14958 58092

835896 744008 32055 9340 50494

815143 726092 38391 8156 42504

-16429 -15378 21 -515 -557

-74004 -68797 457 -4703 -961

-91497 -83935 95 -6907 -751

-1.9 -2.0 0.1 -3.3 -1.0

-8.1 -8.5 1.4 -33.5 -1.9

-10.1 -10.4 0.2 -45.9 -1.7 -14.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

80396

88538

89706

83446

78552

-1860

-9867

-13538

-2.0

-10.6

101612

112692

113882

118144

120136

105

-7

8

0.1

0.0

0.0

1109885

1180941

1319527

1338300

1357800

-35533

-172982

-250721

-2.6

-11.4

-15.6

384219 245670 138549 281949 154275 289441

363322 228215 135107 300854 166339 350426

398600 240219 158381 332996 186887 401044

432893 247747 185146 317396 179600 408412

471989 252716 219273 304070 169741 412000

-2647 -1293 -1354 -10322 -13720 -8844

-14420 -7458 -6961 -64414 -50973 -43176

-11841 -6014 -5827 -103631 -79770 -55480

-0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -3.0 -6.8 -2.2

-3.2 -2.9 -3.6 -16.9 -22.1 -9.6

-2.4 -2.3 -2.6 -25.4 -32.0 -11.9

136126 458929 220792 187680 67875 38483

68674 499706 264489 224587 74443 49041

58407 548238 295342 269092 81551 66899

48656 534463 309541 280205 89623 75812

41158 523152 328891 290231 96293 78075

-359 -13380 -7372 -9776 -3156 -1490

-1910 -64384 -40768 -52842 -4406 -8672

-2326 -81701 -53129 -88009 -8956 -16601

-0.6 -2.4 -2.4 -3.5 -3.7 -2.2

-3.8 -10.8 -11.6 -15.9 -4.7 -10.3

-5.3 -13.5 -13.9 -23.3 -8.5 -17.5

4136.3 1515.0 155.8 796.2 538.0 291.5 839.9

3998.9 1431.1 159.9 650.1 481.6 255.8 1020.5

4176.2 1464.1 131.8 682.9 504.1 261.1 1132.2

3901.0 1265.8 104.3 702.6 460.8 248.5 1119.1

3761.8 1167.6 85.3 734.1 427.5 234.5 1112.9

-115.7 -53.3 -3.7 -1.4 -15.2 -16.4 -25.7

-593.7 -279.9 -18.0 -32.9 -87.3 -46.7 -128.8

-914.1 -517.2 -19.1 -17.9 -129.7 -65.9 -164.3

-2.7 -3.5 -2.8 -0.2 -2.9 -5.9 -2.2

-13.2 -18.1 -14.7 -4.5 -15.9 -15.8 -10.3

-19.5 -30.7 -18.3 -2.4 -23.3 -22.0 -12.9

100.0

96.7

101.0

94.3

90.9

-2.8

-14.4

-22.1

-2.7

-13.2

-19.5

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

62

EU28: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913 7511.4 227.0 3.22 4951 2.43 7.82 550.7 44.6

550.981 9217.8 193.8 3.24 5660 2.24 7.26 433.8 47.5

569.992 11370.5 169.6 3.38 6397 2.17 7.33 367.3 54.8

582.152 14408.7 129.2 3.20 6397 2.10 6.70 270.7 63.1

587.546 17374.7 103.1 3.05 6486 2.10 6.40 216.5 65.6

0.000 0.0 -4.0 -0.08 -227 -0.01 -0.20 -10.2 -0.5

0.000 0.0 -17.3 -0.43 -1200 -0.03 -1.02 -41.2 -0.6

0.000 0.0 -23.0 -0.68 -1962 -0.03 -1.56 -52.6 0.3

0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 -3.4 -0.4 -2.7 -2.7 -0.9

0.0 0.0 -11.8 -11.8 -15.8 -1.6 -13.2 -13.2 -1.0

0.0 0.0 -18.3 -18.3 -23.2 -1.6 -19.5 -19.5 0.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.8 87.3 84.3 98.7

75.4 78.7 74.3 91.5

64.4 59.7 55.7 73.6

57.9 47.5 43.4 61.5

-0.5 -2.4 -5.5 -2.0

-2.1 -12.1 -15.8 -7.8

-1.5 -16.2 -20.4 -8.3

-0.7 -3.0 -6.8 -2.2

-3.2 -16.9 -22.1 -9.6

-2.4 -25.4 -32.0 -11.9

0.42 2.22 2.07 1.91 1.89 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.79 1.60 1.54 2.91

0.27 1.96 1.71 1.51 1.40 2.82

0.23 1.89 1.62 1.45 1.38 2.74

0.20 1.85 1.56 1.41 1.38 2.70

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.02 -0.02 0.02 0.10 -0.02

-0.03 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.18 -0.03

-0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.1

-5.5 1.1 -1.3 1.1 8.1 -0.8

-14.2 3.0 0.1 2.9 14.7 -1.1

725459 145542 116592 12806 176 450343 122684 210547 143140 80801 14814 0 1040

863609 139130 122720 72571 1661 527528 161587 178192 255817 70967 21128 0 1424

891542 111402 127892 112255 4896 535097 227629 147115 286055 51704 48639 0 1585

985892 69800 134203 150096 10583 621209 306593 186067 303629 41221 88723 0 1568

-25213 0 -1214 -6848 0 -17151 -6976 -2342 -11792 -2488 -529 0 0

-146543 -9366 -2272 -20026 0 -114878 -8111 -37576 -66743 460 -11019 0 0

-259234 -38350 -1615 -42158 0 -177110 14731 -71435 -110788 3924 1356 0 -167

-2.8 0.0 -1.0 -8.6 0.0 -3.1 -4.1 -1.3 -4.4 -3.4 -2.4

-14.1 -7.8 -1.7 -15.1 0.0 -17.7 -3.4 -20.3 -18.9 0.9 -18.5

-20.8 -35.5 -1.2 -21.9 0.0 -22.2 5.0 -27.7 -26.7 10.5 1.6

0.0

0.0

-9.6

35.8 49.1 14.8 45.6 30.3 15.3

39.1 48.2 18.3 45.1 27.0 18.2

43.5 47.7 28.9 46.1 21.5 24.6

48.8 44.1 39.4 46.2 14.9 31.3

-0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.7 0.9 -0.2

-1.3 -0.9 6.4 2.3 0.9 1.5

1.1 -1.4 14.1 2.2 -2.7 4.9

-0.7 -0.6 0.4 1.6 3.5 -1.1

-2.9 -1.9 28.7 5.3 4.2 6.3

2.4 -3.0 56.0 5.1 -15.2 18.6

5752.9 589.7 4397.4 423.6 304.7 37.4

6896.4 619.8 5298.4 467.1 466.2 45.0

8250.1 631.1 6391.3 519.5 653.0 55.2

9447.2 615.4 7369.7 577.3 822.1 62.7

-0.8 1.2 -2.3 0.7 -0.4 0.0

-14.8 5.5 -21.7 5.2 -3.6 -0.2

-47.2 9.2 -57.9 12.0 -10.1 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 1.0 -0.6 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 -0.7

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2 618.4 3601.6 456.6 170.7 33.9 9229

10441

12099

14172

16079

-1.4

-25.4

-80.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3 1159.5 532.6 266.3

2352.3 1668.6 405.9 277.8

2945.1 2201.2 438.7 305.2

3591.8 2784.3 468.1 339.4

4185.2 3318.1 498.6 368.5

-2.3 -3.1 0.6 0.2

-20.2 -24.9 3.3 1.4

-46.3 -55.5 6.0 3.3

-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1

-0.6 -0.9 0.7 0.4

-1.1 -1.6 1.2 0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.2

-1.4

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

289441 9634 140266 92511 9807 29928 7295

350426 8758 162549 116941 9691 46814 5673

401044 8867 176687 150966 8658 49397 6469

408412 7855 176653 163420 6524 46973 6987

412000 6464 170579 168987 6311 52403 7257

-8844 -43 -797 -652 -224 -7115 -14

-43176 -473 -5682 -17584 -560 -18684 -194

-55480 -655 -10398 -27733 -430 -15898 -366

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.6 -0.2

-9.6 -5.7 -3.1 -9.7 -7.9 -28.5 -2.7

-11.9 -9.2 -5.7 -14.1 -6.4 -23.3 -4.8

38.5 51.8

39.3 52.8

35.1 53.9

28.8 47.6

24.9 42.2

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.7 -6.2

-3.2 -0.4

-9.4 -9.0

-9.9 -12.9

Source: PRIMES

63

Europe-30: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

1091087 377317 216359 186970 206883 103557 40003 59720 67 173 3595

1200143 228042 337714 253987 250675 129725 48250 74749 1919 703 4103

1139691 174875 256494 272327 260539 175457 49513 104038 14276 2211 5420

954652 131637 185627 205215 213640 218533 53109 131705 22365 4914 6440

841623 113345 134965 189832 148643 254838 56361 152641 31022 8239 6575

-18638 -2069 -1712 -8647 0 -6211 -431 -3540 -2070 -126 -45

-105240 -25332 -1246 -25820 -29194 -23649 -1179 -15661 -5364 -1173 -273

-167796 -33370 -264 -19265 -83120 -31777 -1110 -17268 -9299 -3060 -1041

-1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -3.1 0.0 -3.4 -0.9 -3.3 -12.7 -5.4 -0.8

-9.9 -16.1 -0.7 -11.2 -12.0 -9.8 -2.2 -10.6 -19.3 -19.3 -4.1

-16.6 -22.7 -0.2 -9.2 -35.9 -11.1 -1.9 -10.2 -23.1 -27.1 -13.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

695727 86632 490237 458354 31883 117149 1710

684878 108508 412700 384418 28282 163941 -272

895371 145472 521920 482390 39530 228092 -114

1016826 127031 564507 533840 30667 325293 -5

1058074 129099 596700 572255 24445 332315 -40

-28363 -6000 -14744 -14992 249 -7610 -10

-149802 -26879 -72169 -68320 -3849 -50720 -33

-241324 -77115 -87557 -84406 -3151 -76563 -88

-3.1 -4.0 -2.7 -3.0 0.6 -3.2 9.1

-12.8 -17.5 -11.3 -11.3 -11.2 -13.5 -117.3

-18.6 -37.4 -12.8 -12.9 -11.4 -18.7 -182.7

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1751588 468937 669257 301245 206883 1710 103557

1839144 345317 702393 411306 250675 -272 129725

1985223 320348 728574 500420 260539 -114 175457

1916506 258668 695162 530508 213640 -5 218533

1841774 242444 673743 522146 148643 -40 254838

-47002 -8069 -16456 -16257 0 -10 -6211

-255042 -52211 -73415 -76540 -29194 -33 -23649

-409120 -110486 -87821 -95828 -83120 -88 -31777

-2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -3.1 0.0 9.1 -3.4

-11.7 -16.8 -9.6 -12.6 -12.0 -117.3 -9.8

-18.2 -31.3 -11.5 -15.5 -35.9 -182.7 -11.1

26.8 38.2 17.2 11.8 5.9

18.8 38.2 22.4 13.6 7.1

16.1 36.7 25.2 13.1 8.8

13.5 36.3 27.7 11.1 11.4

13.2 36.6 28.4 8.1 13.8

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.1

-0.8 0.9 -0.3 0.0 0.3

-2.5 2.7 0.9 -2.2 1.1

-0.1 0.1 -0.9 2.4 -1.1

-5.7 2.5 -1.0 -0.3 2.2

-16.0 8.1 3.3 -21.6 8.7

2794856 818651 465941 1510263

3323905 971593 583374 1768938

3857909 1009830 743317 2104762

3946556 828046 882000 2236511

4033225 576128 1025076 2432020

-133680 0 -29077 -104603

-715783 -1184412 -113156 -322158 -76073 -121029 -526554 -741225

-3.3 0.0 -3.8 -4.7

-15.4 -12.0 -7.9 -19.1

-22.7 -35.9 -10.6 -23.4

394358 266510 57394 56913 10698 2842 0

425676 235114 46636 118562 22359 3004 0

463424 231257 36191 162798 29300 3878 0

442880 185959 24007 177581 50531 4801 0

428993 180255 23925 146427 73407 4979 0

-19162 -7160 309 -10333 -1978 0 0

-87999 -48688 -1397 -30552 -7362 0 0

-144243 -106751 2814 -37624 -2114 -568 0

-4.0 -3.0 0.9 -6.0 -6.3 0.0

-16.6 -20.7 -5.5 -14.7 -12.7 0.0

-25.2 -37.2 13.3 -20.4 -2.8 -10.2

884427 713481 2 38512 132432

866713 771184 637 19379 75512

878876 788189 17350 15220 58118

854502 761467 32865 9661 50509

833768 743392 39408 8458 42510

-18075 -17004 22 -535 -558

-76605 -71343 465 -4758 -970

-94062 -86376 95 -7022 -760

-2.0 -2.1 0.1 -3.4 -1.0

-8.2 -8.6 1.4 -33.0 -1.9

-10.1 -10.4 0.2 -45.4 -1.8 -14.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

83789

92950

94513

87434

81916

-1702

-10366

-13907

-1.8

-10.6

103762

115166

116093

120284

122320

106

-7

8

0.1

0.0

0.0

1145388

1220510

1362212

1381044

1399772

-36808

-177124

-256000

-2.6

-11.4

-15.5

394004 252212 141792 290806 160718 299860

375356 236839 138517 310280 172911 361964

411065 249092 161972 343110 194510 413528

446366 257211 189155 327328 186937 420413

485932 262245 223687 313573 176734 423533

-2741 -1344 -1397 -10466 -14276 -9325

-14667 -7583 -7084 -65319 -52558 -44580

-12097 -6182 -5915 -104984 -82012 -56907

-0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -3.0 -6.8 -2.2

-3.2 -2.9 -3.6 -16.6 -21.9 -9.6

-2.4 -2.3 -2.6 -25.1 -31.7 -11.8

137278 477192 222317 200044 68198 40359

69933 518412 266915 238509 75229 51512

59368 566703 299386 284293 82641 69822

49270 551566 314212 296540 90965 78492

41527 539138 333877 306665 98219 80347

-442 -14226 -7307 -10133 -3042 -1658

-2060 -66742 -40966 -54222 -4531 -8602

-2613 -83991 -53381 -90517 -9187 -16312

-0.7 -2.4 -2.4 -3.4 -3.6 -2.3

-4.0 -10.8 -11.5 -15.5 -4.7 -9.9

-5.9 -13.5 -13.8 -22.8 -8.6 -16.9

4207.7 1515.7 163.4 807.4 551.3 300.2 869.6

4076.8 1431.7 170.4 663.2 493.5 264.5 1053.4

4257.8 1467.4 141.6 694.4 516.2 271.0 1167.2

3974.5 1266.9 112.2 715.1 471.2 257.3 1151.8

3831.5 1169.8 92.0 746.9 436.5 242.6 1143.8

-118.7 -53.7 -3.6 -1.7 -15.5 -17.1 -27.1

-605.0 -282.0 -19.2 -34.0 -88.5 -48.5 -132.9

-923.9 -517.7 -19.8 -19.1 -130.8 -67.9 -168.5

-2.7 -3.5 -2.5 -0.2 -2.9 -5.9 -2.3

-13.2 -18.2 -14.6 -4.5 -15.8 -15.9 -10.3

-19.4 -30.7 -17.7 -2.5 -23.1 -21.9 -12.8

100.0

96.9

101.2

94.5

91.1

-2.8

-14.4

-22.0

-2.7

-13.2

-19.4

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

64

Europe-30: Efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950 7877.3 222.4 3.24 5176 2.40 7.79 534.2 38.9

562.681 9665.6 190.3 3.27 5907 2.22 7.25 421.8 36.4

582.130 11898.8 166.8 3.41 6627 2.14 7.31 357.8 44.0

594.587 15057.8 127.3 3.22 6637 2.07 6.68 264.0 51.6

600.252 18137.4 101.5 3.07 6719 2.08 6.38 211.2 55.7

0.000 0.0 -4.0 -0.08 -230 -0.01 -0.20 -10.0 -0.4

0.000 0.0 -16.9 -0.43 -1204 -0.04 -1.02 -40.2 -0.8

0.000 0.0 -22.6 -0.68 -1973 -0.03 -1.54 -50.9 -0.6

0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 -0.4 -2.7 -2.7 -0.8

0.0 0.0 -11.7 -11.7 -15.4 -1.7 -13.2 -13.2 -1.6

0.0 0.0 -18.2 -18.2 -22.7 -1.5 -19.4 -19.4 -1.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.7 87.4 84.5 98.4

75.3 78.7 74.7 91.3

64.3 59.8 56.0 73.3

57.8 47.7 43.7 61.3

-0.5 -2.4 -5.5 -2.1

-2.1 -11.9 -15.7 -7.8

-1.4 -16.0 -20.3 -8.2

-0.7 -3.0 -6.8 -2.2

-3.2 -16.6 -21.9 -9.6

-2.4 -25.1 -31.7 -11.8

0.40 2.21 2.05 1.90 1.87 2.90

0.29 2.03 1.77 1.59 1.53 2.91

0.26 1.94 1.69 1.50 1.39 2.82

0.22 1.88 1.60 1.44 1.38 2.74

0.19 1.84 1.54 1.39 1.37 2.70

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

-0.01 0.02 -0.02 0.01 0.10 -0.02

-0.03 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.17 -0.03

-0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.1

-5.9 1.0 -1.4 1.0 7.8 -0.8

-14.6 2.8 -0.1 2.7 14.4 -1.1

769539 148992 155831 12886 195 451636 123656 210703 143723 80968 15202 0 1040

911288 142580 163989 73002 1705 530011 162883 178348 257366 71132 21742 0 1424

941486 114852 170917 112753 5007 537957 229439 147192 287524 51799 49856 0 1585

1036382 70909 177739 150991 10814 625929 310446 186067 305148 41273 91872 0 1568

-26522 0 -1227 -7959 0 -17336 -6907 -2280 -12071 -2466 -519 0 0

-149753 -9366 -2397 -22264 0 -115725 -8100 -37514 -67382 488 -11317 0 0

-265176 -40666 -1601 -45232 0 -177677 15198 -71435 -111185 3916 1195 0 -167

-2.8 0.0 -0.7 -9.8 0.0 -3.2 -4.1 -1.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.3

-13.7 -7.5 -1.4 -16.5 0.0 -17.7 -3.4 -20.3 -19.0 1.0 -18.5

-20.4 -36.4 -0.9 -23.1 0.0 -22.1 5.1 -27.7 -26.7 10.5 1.3

0.0

0.0

-9.6

35.7 49.3 14.0 48.9 29.2 19.6

39.1 48.3 17.5 48.0 26.2 21.8

43.4 47.9 27.4 49.2 21.0 28.2

48.8 44.4 37.7 49.1 14.3 34.8

-0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.8 0.9 -0.1

-1.3 -0.9 6.0 2.6 0.8 1.8

1.1 -1.3 13.4 2.5 -2.9 5.4

-0.8 -0.5 0.6 1.6 3.5 -0.5

-3.0 -1.9 27.9 5.6 3.9 6.9

2.4 -2.9 55.2 5.3 -17.0 18.4

5925.5 596.9 4530.1 443.8 316.3 38.4

7097.5 628.0 5451.8 490.0 481.5 46.2

8473.0 639.9 6560.7 544.2 671.8 56.5

9682.0 624.6 7547.7 602.8 842.8 64.1

-0.8 1.2 -2.4 0.8 -0.4 0.0

-15.0 5.5 -22.0 5.3 -3.7 -0.2

-47.7 9.2 -58.5 12.1 -10.2 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 1.0 -0.5 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 -0.7

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5 625.6 3720.2 473.5 178.7 34.5 9320

10531

12192

14250

16130

-1.4

-25.2

-79.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8 1179.2 544.1 303.5

2447.9 1705.6 419.3 323.0

3057.6 2252.5 454.5 350.6

3722.8 2853.3 484.6 384.9

4329.2 3402.9 515.2 411.1

-2.3 -3.2 0.7 0.2

-20.8 -25.6 3.3 1.4

-47.7 -57.1 6.0 3.4

-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1

-0.6 -0.9 0.7 0.4

-1.1 -1.7 1.2 0.8

257

253

257

247

239

-0.2

-1.4

-2.6

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860 9802 145794 94266 10142 31627 8229

361964 8917 168062 119351 10079 49160 6394

413528 9044 182455 154314 9047 51466 7202

420413 8017 181921 167251 6823 48701 7700

423533 6606 175357 173011 6582 54072 7905

-9325 -44 -824 -672 -233 -7537 -16

-44580 -482 -5848 -18071 -585 -19385 -209

-56907 -665 -10553 -28444 -448 -16408 -389

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.8 -0.2

-9.6 -5.7 -3.1 -9.8 -7.9 -28.5 -2.6

-11.8 -9.2 -5.7 -14.1 -6.4 -23.3 -4.7

38.9 51.4

39.6 52.0

35.3 53.3

28.9 47.1

25.0 41.8

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.7 -6.2

-3.3 -0.4

-9.5 -9.0

-9.9 -12.9

Source: PRIMES

65

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers. Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km. Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions EU15: EU15 Member States EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania EU28: EU27 + Turkey Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) Mtoe: million toe GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

66

APPENDIX 2: “High renewables” case results Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

67

EU25: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

877543 351650 120396 139723 196920 68855 23391 42151 67 145 3101

898598 204139 163631 196665 237664 96499 28982 61865 1913 417 3322

892669 146241 116759 171121 248776 209773 31986 137157 23032 2689 14908

801998 95682 52492 97939 196397 359488 34034 247203 42996 12297 22959

808992 99613 42909 80027 140177 446266 34924 296690 55196 33711 25745

56253 -8287 -420 -1058 0 66017 2108 44749 7246 1199 10715

95477 -35400 -466 -410 -32241 163996 1831 118011 16755 9550 17849

123890 -20585 -540 221 -70631 215424 1043 147811 17254 29317 20000

6.7 -5.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 45.9 7.1 48.4 45.9 80.5 255.5

13.5 -27.0 -0.9 -0.4 -14.1 83.9 5.7 91.3 63.8 347.7 349.3

18.1 -17.1 -1.2 0.3 -33.5 93.3 3.1 99.3 45.5 667.2 348.1

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

711300 75449 510017 479112 30905 123653 2181

801061 94307 518147 496826 21321 186463 2144

969363 111443 582989 544772 38217 272772 2159

1117652 100117 631172 601179 29993 384351 2012

1108116 100344 597641 575701 21940 407931 2200

-54912 -20845 -16709 -16585 -124 -17280 -78

-114039 -28277 -38694 -35496 -3197 -46959 -110

-157451 -72575 -54808 -50549 -4259 -30066 -2

-5.4 -15.8 -2.8 -3.0 -0.3 -6.0 -3.5

-9.3 -22.0 -5.8 -5.6 -9.6 -10.9 -5.2

-12.4 -42.0 -8.4 -8.1 -16.3 -6.9 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1556194 431944 595746 260548 196920 2181 68855

1653841 306538 634711 376284 237664 2144 96499

1813873 257683 651589 443893 248776 2159 209773

1866775 195799 630789 482290 196397 2012 359488

1861676 199957 585118 487958 140177 2200 446266

1341 -29132 -17129 -18338 0 -78 66017

-18562 -63677 -39160 -47369 -32241 -110 163996

-33561 -93160 -55348 -29845 -70631 -2 215424

0.1 -10.2 -2.6 -4.0 0.0 -3.5 45.9

-1.0 -24.5 -5.8 -8.9 -14.1 -5.2 83.9

-1.8 -31.8 -8.6 -5.8 -33.5 -0.1 93.3

27.8 38.3 16.7 12.7 4.4

18.5 38.4 22.8 14.4 5.8

14.2 35.9 24.5 13.7 11.6

10.5 33.8 25.8 10.5 19.3

10.7 31.4 26.2 7.5 24.0

-1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 3.6

-3.3 -1.7 -2.3 -1.6 8.9

-4.7 -2.4 -1.1 -3.6 11.8

-10.2 -2.6 -4.0 -0.1 45.8

-23.8 -4.9 -8.0 -13.2 85.7

-30.6 -7.0 -4.1 -32.3 96.8

2455674 780056 272788 1402830

2900835 921193 359249 1620392

3436319 964265 641307 1830746

3920113 761237 935026 2223851

4259090 543324 1128501 2587265

-46867 0 108763 -155630

-85662 -124970 251175 -211867

-107509 -273767 284778 -118519

-1.3 0.0 20.4 -7.8

-2.1 -14.1 36.7 -8.7

-2.5 -33.5 33.8 -4.4

355362 246377 48954 47057 10201 2774 0

385987 214488 41870 105480 21211 2939 0

417257 188068 32408 138432 43975 14375 0

443126 136759 23436 146487 114031 22413 0

484046 148985 20743 141897 147208 25215 0

-14983 -26882 775 -14394 14828 10690 0

-19645 -61743 124 -36244 60412 17806 0

-5992 -91326 948 -13351 77784 19954 0

-3.5 -12.5 2.4 -9.4 50.9 290.1

-4.2 -31.1 0.5 -19.8 112.7 386.4

-1.2 -38.0 4.8 -8.6 112.0 379.3

797634 642275 2 31035 124322

796450 710448 637 17261 68104

805352 710830 26888 17178 50455

819358 695679 62149 16545 44985

789373 653659 80909 16768 38037

-7545 -18092 10095 1928 -1477

-4737 -38345 31145 2727 -263

-7692 -54444 44534 2035 184

-0.9 -2.5 60.1 12.6 -2.8

-0.6 -5.2 100.5 19.7 -0.6

-1.0 -7.7 122.4 13.8 0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79600

78039

74549

-1898

-3127

-3586

-2.3

-3.9

-4.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107358

110828

111696

-490

-371

-468

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1240910

1340478

1377071

2903

1973

6618

0.2

0.1

0.5

341087 216809 124278 261006 146622 273198

330062 211616 118446 273302 158975 333020

358933 222597 136336 312864 187963 381151

384888 230098 154790 339880 210162 405548

393524 226214 167309 352815 228386 402346

2513 1837 676 898 -524 17

2486 1706 780 1139 -1694 43

1958 1282 676 1530 3069 60

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.0

123937 428121 200242 176468 63092 30053

56633 468312 251885 211352 68712 38465

44654 505171 275834 256211 78263 80777

38754 496303 302517 297620 85885 119399

33509 460797 310182 327648 94487 150447

-547 -12171 -3341 -3099 -1914 23976

-666 -33592 -7209 -5298 -1806 50544

-515 -51039 -11215 -6395 -838 76621

-1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.4 42.2

-1.7 -6.3 -2.3 -1.7 -2.1 73.4

-1.5 -10.0 -3.5 -1.9 -0.9 103.8

3776.1 1362.6 141.5 698.9 506.1 274.2 792.7

3674.1 1294.9 144.9 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9

3673.9 1213.5 110.5 558.8 479.2 260.0 1051.9

3449.0 989.3 97.7 566.7 490.8 261.2 1043.3

3352.9 1018.1 84.6 544.3 481.9 237.0 986.9

-208.0 -148.3 -13.4 -18.2 -3.5 -1.8 -22.7

-479.6 -344.0 -16.2 -28.5 -4.1 -14.7 -72.1

-602.1 -405.9 -15.1 -25.5 -4.8 -44.9 -106.0

-5.4 -10.9 -10.8 -3.2 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1

-12.2 -25.8 -14.2 -4.8 -0.8 -5.3 -6.5

-15.2 -28.5 -15.1 -4.5 -1.0 -15.9 -9.7

100.0

97.3

97.3

91.3

88.8

-5.5

-12.7

-15.9

-5.4

-12.2

-15.2

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

68

EU25: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788 7294.7 213.3 3.53 5571 2.43 8.57 517.7 44.7

452.915 8947.0 184.8 3.65 6405 2.22 8.11 410.7 47.2

464.054 10946.8 165.7 3.91 7405 2.03 7.92 335.6 52.1

469.270 13656.3 136.7 3.98 8354 1.85 7.35 252.6 58.2

469.365 16051.4 116.0 3.97 9074 1.80 7.14 208.9 57.8

0.000 0.0 0.1 0.00 -101 -0.12 -0.45 -19.0 -3.0

0.000 0.0 -1.4 -0.04 -183 -0.24 -1.02 -35.1 -5.3

0.000 0.0 -2.1 -0.07 -229 -0.29 -1.28 -37.5 -7.1

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -1.3 -5.4 -5.4 -5.4 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.1 -11.3 -12.2 -12.2 -8.4

0.0 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.2 -10.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

83.8 85.8 84.9 99.4

77.8 80.6 79.3 93.0

67.1 70.8 70.1 79.3

58.8 62.8 64.2 66.9

0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.9 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.8 0.0

0.5 0.4 1.4 0.0

0.41 2.22 2.05 1.94 1.87 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.72 1.65 1.54 2.91

0.24 1.89 1.56 1.53 1.38 2.76

0.17 1.76 1.47 1.44 1.24 2.57

0.17 1.63 1.38 1.37 1.04 2.45

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.06 -0.09 -0.08 -0.02 -0.06 -0.18

-0.06 -0.14 -0.07 -0.02 -0.21 -0.26

-11.1 -2.2 -3.8 -1.0 -0.4 -2.1

-25.4 -5.0 -5.4 -1.2 -4.6 -6.5

-27.9 -7.9 -5.0 -1.4 -17.0 -9.7

661750 141082 97168 12785 176 410539 112958 188879 131875 74302 14462 0 1022

832528 136430 108102 110835 1658 475503 144165 152192 228459 64401 26651 0 3800

1013950 111389 111656 208644 27681 554581 207768 112131 280220 41914 114557 0 5758

1184840 66869 113754 275086 57304 671827 249908 137616 336543 35640 155646 0 6382

22021 0 4169 32443 0 -14591 -6705 -4345 -16980 -1648 5938 0 2444

71369 -5547 3039 81020 22831 -29973 -1193 -44675 -40987 -6016 57464 0 4241

88548 -34347 1553 92154 46940 -17752 1909 -73620 -23591 674 74045 0 4739

2.7 0.0 4.0 41.4 0.0 -3.0 -4.4 -2.8 -6.9 -2.5 28.7

7.6 -4.7 2.8 63.5 470.8 -5.1 -0.6 -28.5 -12.8 -12.6 100.6

8.1 -33.9 1.4 50.4 452.9 -2.6 0.8 -34.9 -6.6 1.9 90.7

180.2

279.5

288.4

36.1 50.0 14.5 46.5 31.8 14.7

37.7 47.1 18.5 51.6 28.1 23.5

43.2 44.1 22.4 58.8 19.4 39.4

46.0 41.0 25.2 58.4 12.8 45.6

-1.8 -1.9 0.7 5.8 0.4 5.4

-2.1 -4.4 0.5 13.3 -2.7 16.0

-1.5 -4.4 0.9 12.1 -6.0 18.0

-4.5 -4.0 3.9 12.7 1.4 30.1

-4.7 -9.0 2.4 29.1 -12.2 68.1

-3.2 -9.8 3.6 26.0 -31.8 65.3

5466.3 480.1 4253.1 402.7 296.9 33.6

6448.9 495.1 5016.9 445.5 451.6 39.7

7400.7 480.6 5781.8 476.0 616.8 45.5

8128.8 466.8 6359.9 502.7 749.9 49.5

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.0 0.0

-1.3 0.1 1.0 -2.5 0.1 0.0

-1.4 0.1 1.3 -3.0 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4640.8 504.1 3529.3 411.9 166.3 29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15771

17319

-1.0

-2.8

-3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1753.9 1034.1 461.7 258.1

2131.5 1486.3 374.2 271.0

2581.8 1891.4 401.3 289.0

3047.9 2312.4 419.8 315.6

3431.0 2658.4 436.9 335.7

-0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.0

-0.8 0.7 -1.6 0.0

-0.9 1.1 -2.0 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

223

214

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

273198 7841 138202 82444 9066 28932 6714

333020 7018 158349 108068 8897 45320 5368

381151 7021 170190 135663 8290 54178 5808

405548 6275 168929 156875 6475 60787 6206

402346 5321 159883 164445 5974 60369 6354

17 1 13 16 -17 4 0

43 1 28 45 -43 10 1

60 1 32 59 -45 11 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

39.3 51.7

39.9 53.9

37.0 55.3

32.7 53.8

28.4 49.9

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

69

EU15: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

707946 210737 117782 132975 181439 65014 22275 39426 67 145 3101

761643 100172 160552 190581 222846 87491 27627 54257 1912 381 3315

753852 61866 114400 165364 231522 180701 30263 113194 21925 2374 12945

658988 42089 50377 92637 178810 295074 32174 191893 40044 11086 19877

652663 51399 41084 75242 123702 361236 32974 225587 50548 29750 22377

44215 -6393 -418 -1056 0 52082 1846 33875 6545 1049 8767

78489 -17906 -451 -398 -28352 125595 1632 85670 14865 8641 14788

100930 -7218 -513 226 -53884 162320 960 103180 15640 25884 16656

6.2 -9.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 40.5 6.5 42.7 42.6 79.1 209.8

13.5 -29.8 -0.9 -0.4 -13.7 74.1 5.3 80.7 59.0 353.4 290.6

18.3 -12.3 -1.2 0.3 -30.3 81.6 3.0 84.3 44.8 669.5 291.1

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

643284 89663 458793 435365 23428 92495 2333

741591 110142 472543 455606 16937 155262 3644

879146 118223 528232 499196 29037 228868 3823

999710 97175 569164 549432 19732 329599 3773

980746 96418 531433 520229 11204 347934 4960

-45279 -16857 -14527 -14636 109 -13894 -1

-95190 -26303 -34399 -31699 -2700 -34487 -1

-130097 -63535 -47985 -44672 -3312 -18577 -1

-4.9 -12.5 -2.7 -2.8 0.4 -5.7 0.0

-8.7 -21.3 -5.7 -5.5 -12.0 -9.5 0.0

-11.7 -39.7 -8.3 -7.9 -22.8 -5.1 0.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1319965 303612 544159 223408 181439 2333 65014

1456936 215739 587926 339289 222846 3644 87491

1585981 180089 595615 394232 231522 3823 180701

1607096 139264 567939 422236 178810 3773 295074

1579333 147818 518441 423176 123702 4960 361236

-1064 -23250 -14945 -14950 0 -1 52082

-16701 -44209 -34851 -34885 -28352 -1 125595

-29167 -70753 -48498 -18351 -53884 -1 162320

-0.1 -11.4 -2.4 -3.7 0.0 0.0 40.5

-1.0 -24.1 -5.8 -7.6 -13.7 0.0 74.1

-1.8 -32.4 -8.6 -4.2 -30.3 0.0 81.6

23.0 41.2 16.9 13.7 4.9

14.8 40.4 23.3 15.3 6.0

11.4 37.6 24.9 14.6 11.4

8.7 35.3 26.3 11.1 18.4

9.4 32.8 26.8 7.8 22.9

-1.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 3.3

-2.6 -1.8 -1.9 -1.6 7.9

-4.2 -2.4 -0.7 -3.2 10.5

-11.4 -2.4 -3.6 0.1 40.6

-23.3 -4.8 -6.7 -12.8 75.9

-31.1 -6.9 -2.4 -29.1 85.0

2138940 720059 259810 1159070

2576502 863760 343478 1369264

3042394 897389 608383 1536621

3414280 693070 878907 1842303

3645733 479465 1051112 2115155

-40356 0 97568 -137924

-70462 -109891 226884 -187454

-89713 -208854 265046 -145905

-1.3 0.0 19.1 -8.2

-2.0 -13.7 34.8 -9.2

-2.4 -30.3 33.7 -6.5

282186 184170 43718 41697 9827 2774 0

319336 158097 38588 99188 20524 2939 0

340348 135008 29383 128958 34563 12436 0

358969 99348 21118 137617 81519 19366 0

391903 113706 18427 134148 103732 21890 0

-15632 -21347 683 -11977 8257 8751 0

-18255 -43457 160 -26236 36519 14759 0

-13659 -70480 954 -5687 44925 16630 0

-4.4 -13.7 2.4 -8.5 31.4 237.5

-4.8 -30.4 0.8 -16.0 81.2 320.3

-3.4 -38.3 5.5 -4.1 76.4 316.1

704402 595036 2 13085 96279

725664 665476 604 8717 50868

733092 661966 24662 8324 38141

738838 640681 56184 8216 33757

703174 595113 72425 7444 28192

-6857 -16121 9137 1588 -1461

-4014 -34506 27991 2755 -254

-6647 -48499 39904 1797 150

-0.9 -2.4 58.9 23.6 -3.7

-0.5 -5.1 99.3 50.5 -0.7

-0.9 -7.5 122.7 31.8 0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67228

64787

60898

-1617

-2734

-3310

-2.3

-4.0

-5.2

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96624

97462

96372

-439

-334

-410

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

866453

970663

1089398

1157341

1170009

2663

2236

6083

0.2

0.2

0.5

272481 182306 90175 220020 121346 252606

284781 182967 101814 238404 137376 310102

308931 193145 115785 269848 161381 349238

325205 196817 128389 288053 176217 367865

327750 191362 136389 294472 187553 360233

2162 1631 531 727 -240 14

2148 1526 622 1055 -1000 33

1618 1109 509 1359 3064 43

0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 -0.6 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.0

79761 393325 173014 155929 36558 27865

35330 434547 226415 191711 50708 31953

27940 462067 241457 230612 58320 69003

24845 446987 258634 262502 63806 100568

21286 408297 261464 284103 68970 125890

-685 -11070 -3209 -2552 -1571 21750

-470 -30269 -6859 -4104 -950 44888

-326 -45558 -9637 -4994 -21 66618

-2.4 -2.3 -1.3 -1.1 -2.6 46.0

-1.9 -6.3 -2.6 -1.5 -1.5 80.6

-1.5 -10.0 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 112.4

3068.4 1021.1 127.2 545.2 419.7 220.7 734.5

3127.0 1014.7 127.0 471.6 401.5 207.4 904.8

3120.6 948.1 101.2 457.6 424.3 224.3 965.2

2940.7 798.5 88.3 454.0 430.9 220.8 948.1

2844.4 839.5 76.2 428.5 420.9 194.5 884.8

-170.3 -115.6 -11.5 -18.2 -3.0 -1.4 -20.6

-360.3 -238.1 -14.4 -26.6 -3.9 -12.5 -64.9

-466.6 -293.1 -13.2 -22.8 -4.3 -38.2 -95.1

-5.2 -10.9 -10.2 -3.8 -0.7 -0.6 -2.1

-10.9 -23.0 -14.0 -5.5 -0.9 -5.4 -6.4

-14.1 -25.9 -14.8 -5.0 -1.0 -16.4 -9.7

100.0

101.9

101.7

95.8

92.7

-5.5

-11.7

-15.2

-5.2

-10.9

-14.1

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

70

EU15: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749 6981.9 189.1 3.61 5848 2.32 8.39 439.5 47.5

378.062 8572.2 170.0 3.85 6815 2.15 8.27 364.8 49.5

390.652 10391.5 152.6 4.06 7788 1.97 7.99 300.3 53.8

397.458 12835.7 125.2 4.04 8590 1.83 7.40 229.1 60.3

398.737 14948.8 105.6 3.96 9143 1.80 7.13 190.3 60.0

0.000 0.0 -0.1 0.00 -103 -0.11 -0.44 -16.4 -2.7

0.000 0.0 -1.3 -0.04 -177 -0.20 -0.91 -28.1 -5.1

0.000 0.0 -2.0 -0.07 -225 -0.26 -1.17 -31.2 -6.8

0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -5.1 -5.2 -5.2 -4.8

0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -10.0 -10.9 -10.9 -7.8

0.0 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.4 -12.5 -14.1 -14.1 -10.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

90.9 88.8 88.7 100.0

85.9 83.3 82.8 92.9

73.8 72.8 72.0 79.2

64.4 64.2 65.2 66.6

0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0

0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.3 0.3 1.1 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0

0.7 0.4 -0.6 0.0

0.5 0.5 1.7 0.0

0.39 2.22 2.00 1.91 1.82 2.91

0.27 2.05 1.66 1.68 1.51 2.92

0.21 1.90 1.48 1.57 1.39 2.76

0.16 1.77 1.40 1.50 1.25 2.58

0.16 1.65 1.31 1.43 1.04 2.46

-0.03 -0.04 -0.07 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.05 -0.10 -0.09 -0.02 -0.06 -0.18

-0.06 -0.15 -0.08 -0.02 -0.22 -0.26

-11.1 -2.3 -4.5 -1.0 -0.5 -2.1

-22.7 -5.2 -6.2 -1.3 -4.8 -6.4

-25.4 -8.2 -5.5 -1.5 -17.8 -9.7

588083 131758 90794 12769 176 352586 88543 144882 125804 67470 13407 0 1022

745541 127644 100717 104649 1645 410886 119426 113157 217083 57201 20074 0 3371

893788 102603 103906 192543 27544 467193 176358 86415 259013 36774 79907 0 5084

1014282 58601 105729 249045 56767 544140 197512 101169 301600 31106 104618 0 5647

21372 0 3603 28517 0 -10749 -5273 -3364 -10869 -1779 3248 0 2015

65698 -3596 2638 71212 22831 -27389 809 -30734 -30609 -4955 35343 0 3567

84728 -26067 1333 82235 46940 -19713 3498 -53017 -13780 1690 41389 0 4004

3.0 0.0 3.7 37.5 0.0 -2.5 -4.2 -2.9 -4.8 -3.0 19.3

7.9 -3.4 2.6 58.7 484.5 -5.5 0.5 -26.2 -10.6 -11.9 79.3

9.1 -30.8 1.3 49.3 477.7 -3.5 1.8 -34.4 -4.4 5.7 65.5

148.6

235.1

243.7

36.9 50.0 13.4 49.4 33.5 15.9

38.8 46.6 17.3 53.7 29.5 24.2

44.1 43.6 21.2 58.6 20.3 38.3

46.4 41.0 22.8 57.7 13.2 44.6

-1.6 -2.0 0.6 5.2 0.4 4.8

-2.1 -4.4 0.8 10.7 -2.7 13.5

-1.5 -4.8 1.2 10.0 -5.3 15.3

-4.0 -4.1 3.7 10.8 1.3 24.9

-4.6 -9.2 3.9 22.4 -11.9 54.4

-3.2 -10.6 5.5 20.9 -28.6 52.1

4997.7 401.8 3928.0 351.3 283.6 33.0

5831.6 422.5 4546.2 395.4 428.4 39.1

6644.7 414.1 5175.3 427.4 583.2 44.8

7227.6 404.5 5612.8 454.6 706.9 48.7

-0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0

-1.1 0.1 0.9 -2.2 0.1 0.0

-1.2 0.1 1.1 -2.5 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4130.1 369.0 3265.7 309.8 157.3 28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16718

18126

-1.1

-2.8

-3.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1419.2 914.2 254.9 250.1

1825.6 1309.3 249.5 266.8

2142.9 1590.4 267.8 284.8

2490.9 1900.1 279.7 311.1

2775.7 2157.1 287.6 331.1

-0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.0

-0.5 0.4 -1.0 0.0

-0.5 0.6 -1.2 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

194

186

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

252606 6250 129911 75351 6970 27742 6383

310102 5860 146708 100615 7579 44025 5314

349238 5957 155194 123196 7099 52040 5751

367865 5358 152194 140526 5506 58136 6145

360233 4554 140761 145756 5095 57776 6290

14 1 12 12 -14 4 0

33 1 25 36 -39 10 1

43 1 26 43 -38 10 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

41.2 58.0

40.7 58.5

37.7 60.5

33.3 58.9

28.8 54.8

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

71

NMS: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

169598 140913 2614 6749 15481 3841 1116 2725 0 0 0

136955 103966 3079 6084 14818 9008 1355 7609 1 35 8

138817 84375 2359 5757 17254 29072 1724 23963 1107 316 1963

143011 53592 2115 5302 17587 64414 1859 55310 2952 1210 3082

156329 48214 1825 4784 16475 85031 1950 71103 4648 3961 3368

12038 -1894 -2 -2 0 13935 262 10874 701 151 1948

16989 -17494 -15 -13 -3890 38400 199 32342 1890 909 3061

22960 9.5 13.5 17.2 -13366 -2.2 -24.6 -21.7 -27 -0.1 -0.7 -1.4 -5 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -16746 0.0 -18.1 -50.4 53104 92.1 147.6 166.3 83 17.9 12.0 4.5 44631 83.1 140.8 168.6 1613 173.1 177.8 53.2 3433 91.3 301.2 650.1 3344 12579.4 14583.5 13522.5

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

68016 -14214 51224 43747 7477 31158 -152

59470 -15836 45604 41220 4384 31202 -1500

90217 -6780 54757 45577 9180 43905 -1664

117941 2942 62008 51746 10261 54753 -1761

127371 3926 66208 55473 10735 59997 -2760

-9633 -3987 -2182 -1949 -233 -3386 -77

-18849 -1975 -4294 -3797 -497 -12471 -109

-27353 -9041 -6824 -5877 -947 -11488 -1

-9.6 142.7 -3.8 -4.1 -2.5 -7.2 4.9

-13.8 -40.2 -6.5 -6.8 -4.6 -18.6 6.6

-17.7 -69.7 -9.3 -9.6 -8.1 -16.1 0.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

236229 128332 51587 37140 15481 -152 3841

196904 90799 46785 36994 14818 -1500 9008

227893 77594 55974 49661 17254 -1664 29072

259679 56535 62850 60054 17587 -1761 64414

282344 52139 66677 64782 16475 -2760 85031

2405 -5881 -2184 -3388 0 -77 13935

-1860 -19469 -4309 -12484 -3890 -109 38400

-4394 -22407 -6850 -11493 -16746 -1 53104

1.1 -7.0 -3.8 -6.4 0.0 4.9 92.1

-0.7 -25.6 -6.4 -17.2 -18.1 6.6 147.6

-1.5 -30.1 -9.3 -15.1 -50.4 0.0 166.3

54.3 21.8 15.7 6.6 1.6

46.1 23.8 18.8 7.5 4.6

34.0 24.6 21.8 7.6 12.8

21.8 24.2 23.1 6.8 24.8

18.5 23.6 22.9 5.8 30.1

-3.0 -1.2 -1.7 -0.1 6.0

-7.3 -1.5 -4.6 -1.4 14.9

-7.5 -2.0 -3.7 -5.8 19.0

-8.0 -4.8 -7.4 -1.1 90.0

-25.1 -5.7 -16.6 -17.5 149.4

-29.0 -7.9 -13.7 -49.6 170.5

316734 59996 12978 243760

324333 57434 15771 251128

393925 66876 32924 294125

505833 68167 56118 381548

613358 63859 77389 472110

-6511 0 11196 -17706

-15200 -15079 24291 -24413

-17796 -64913 19732 27385

-1.6 0.0 51.5 -5.7

-2.9 -18.1 76.3 -6.0

-2.8 -50.4 34.2 6.2

73176 62206 5236 5360 374 0 0

66652 56391 3281 6292 687 0 0

76909 53059 3025 9474 9411 1939 0

84157 37410 2318 8870 32512 3047 0

92144 35279 2316 7749 43475 3324 0

649 -5535 91 -2417 6571 1939 0

-1390 -18286 -36 -10009 23893 3047 0

7668 -20846 -6 -7664 32859 3324 0

0.9 -9.4 3.1 -20.3 231.3

-1.6 -32.8 -1.5 -53.0 277.2

9.1 -37.1 -0.3 -49.7 309.5

93232 47239 0 17949 28043

70786 44972 33 8544 17236

72259 48865 2226 8854 12315

80521 54999 5965 8328 11228

86199 58546 8484 9324 9845

-688 -1971 959 340 -16

-723 -3839 3154 -28 -10

-1044 -5945 4630 237 34

-0.9 -3.9 75.7 4.0 -0.1

-0.9 -6.5 112.2 -0.3 -0.1

-1.2 -9.2 120.1 2.6 0.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12372

13252

13650

-281

-393

-276

-2.2

-2.9

-2.0

10089

10135

10734

13366

15324

-51

-37

-58

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

151512

183137

207062

240

-263

535

0.2

-0.1

0.3

68606 34503 34103 40986 25276 20592

45281 28649 16632 34898 21599 22917

50002 29451 20551 43015 26581 31913

59683 33282 26401 51827 33944 37682

65773 34852 30921 58343 40832 42113

351 206 144 171 -284 3

338 180 157 84 -694 9

341 174 167 172 5 17

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 -1.1 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 -2.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0

44176 34795 27229 20539 26534 2188

21303 33764 25471 19641 18005 6512

16715 43105 34377 25599 19942 11774

13909 49317 43883 35117 22080 18831

12223 52501 48719 43546 25517 24557

138 -1101 -131 -548 -344 2226

-196 -3323 -350 -1194 -856 5656

-189 -5482 -1579 -1401 -818 10003

0.8 -2.5 -0.4 -2.1 -1.7 23.3

-1.4 -6.3 -0.8 -3.3 -3.7 42.9

-1.5 -9.5 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 68.7

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

707.7 341.5 14.3 153.7 86.4 53.5 58.2

547.1 280.2 17.9 96.1 50.6 37.2 65.1

553.3 265.5 9.3 101.2 54.9 35.7 86.7

508.3 190.8 9.4 112.7 59.8 40.3 95.2

508.5 178.6 8.3 115.9 61.0 42.5 102.2

-37.7 -32.7 -1.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -2.1

-119.3 -105.9 -1.8 -1.9 -0.2 -2.2 -7.2

-135.5 -112.8 -1.9 -2.7 -0.5 -6.7 -10.9

-6.4 -11.0 -17.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.2 -2.4

-19.0 -35.7 -16.3 -1.7 -0.4 -5.1 -7.1

-21.0 -38.7 -18.2 -2.3 -0.8 -13.6 -9.6

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

78.2

71.8

71.9

-5.3

-16.9

-19.1

-6.4

-19.0

-21.0

Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other

Source: PRIMES

72

NMS: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039 312.8 755.2 3.15 4221 3.00 9.43 2262.2 28.7

74.853 374.8 525.3 2.63 4333 2.78 7.31 1459.6 30.1

73.401 555.3 410.4 3.10 5367 2.43 7.54 996.4 39.4

71.813 820.6 316.4 3.62 7044 1.96 7.08 619.4 45.2

70.628 1102.7 256.1 4.00 8684 1.80 7.20 461.2 44.9

0.000 0.0 4.3 0.03 -89 -0.19 -0.51 -67.9 -4.7

0.000 0.0 -2.3 -0.03 -212 -0.44 -1.66 -145.3 -6.9

0.000 0.0 -4.0 -0.06 -252 -0.44 -1.92 -122.9 -8.8

0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 -1.6 -7.4 -6.4 -6.4 -10.6

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -2.9 -18.4 -19.0 -19.0 -13.2

0.0 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 -2.8 -19.8 -21.0 -21.0 -16.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

52.9 70.0 65.9 92.9

35.5 57.3 54.5 87.3

28.4 46.2 46.3 69.8

24.1 38.5 40.1 58.0

0.2 0.2 -0.6 0.0

0.2 0.1 -0.9 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.4 -1.1 0.0

0.6 0.2 -2.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0

0.50 2.26 2.24 2.11 2.12 2.83

0.46 2.00 2.12 1.45 1.72 2.84

0.36 1.84 2.02 1.28 1.34 2.72

0.22 1.68 1.89 1.15 1.19 2.53

0.17 1.55 1.76 1.05 1.04 2.43

-0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.07

-0.11 -0.06 -0.04 -0.01 -0.04 -0.19

-0.10 -0.10 -0.05 -0.01 -0.16 -0.26

-11.0 -1.2 -0.7 -1.2 -0.1 -2.4

-34.6 -3.5 -2.2 -0.5 -3.2 -7.1

-37.8 -6.3 -2.8 -1.1 -13.6 -9.7

73667 9324 6374 16 0 57953 24415 43996 6071 6832 1055 0 0

86987 8786 7386 6186 13 64617 24739 39035 11375 7200 6578 0 429

120162 8786 7750 16100 138 87388 31410 25716 21207 5141 34650 0 674

170559 8268 8025 26040 537 127688 52396 36447 34943 4534 51028 0 735

650 0 566 3926 0 -3842 -1433 -981 -6111 131 2689 0 429

5672 -1952 400 9808 0 -2585 -2003 -13941 -10378 -1061 22121 0 674

3820 -8280 220 9919 0 1961 -1589 -20603 -9811 -1016 32656 0 735

0.8 0.0 8.3 173.8 0.0 -5.6 -5.5 -2.5 -34.9 1.9 69.2

5.0 -18.2 5.4 155.9 0.0 -2.9 -6.0 -35.2 -32.9 -17.1 176.5

2.3 -50.0 2.8 61.5 0.0 1.6 -2.9 -36.1 -21.9 -18.3 177.7

32.4 50.3 23.5 23.3 17.7 5.6

32.9 51.7 28.0 35.1 17.0 18.2

39.0 48.1 29.8 60.5 13.5 47.0

44.1 41.1 38.9 62.2 10.4 51.7

-2.3 -1.2 1.3 10.4 0.3 10.1

-1.8 -3.9 -1.2 30.1 -2.5 32.6

-1.2 -2.2 -1.0 24.3 -10.0 34.3

-6.5 -2.4 4.9 41.9 1.7 125.1

-4.5 -7.5 -3.9 99.4 -15.7 227.4

-2.7 -5.0 -2.5 64.3 -49.0 196.7

468.6 78.3 325.1 51.4 13.3 0.6

617.3 72.6 470.8 50.1 23.2 0.7

756.0 66.6 606.5 48.6 33.6 0.7

901.2 62.3 747.1 48.1 42.9 0.8

-0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

-0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0

-0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

510.7 135.1 263.6 102.1 9.0 0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8410

10527

12760

-0.7

-2.5

-2.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

334.6 119.9 206.8 7.9

305.9 177.1 124.7 4.2

438.9 301.0 133.6 4.3

557.0 412.3 140.2 4.5

655.3 501.3 149.4 4.6

-0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.0

-0.3 0.3 -0.6 0.0

-0.4 0.5 -0.8 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

-0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1

-0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

679

594

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

20592 1591 8290 7093 2096 1190 331

22917 1159 11641 7453 1317 1294 54

31913 1064 14996 12467 1192 2138 57

37682 917 16735 16349 969 2651 61

42113 767 19122 18689 879 2593 63

3 0 1 4 -2 0 0

9 0 4 9 -5 1 0

17 0 6 16 -6 1 0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.1

23.9 25.0

31.4 26.7

30.3 30.1

27.3 30.6

25.3 29.5

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

73

EU27: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

928078 364706 128402 162645 200702 71623 25013 43297 67 145 3101

937145 214324 170011 207644 243761 101405 30483 65264 1913 417 3329

935850 157239 123005 183635 253537 218435 34191 142811 23173 2732 15529

848746 107545 58705 109116 202766 370614 36451 254179 43406 12564 24014

859460 110646 49114 89971 149762 459967 37555 305431 55687 34376 26918

57663 -8636 -420 -1270 0 67989 2474 45657 7338 1217 11303

97677 -35444 -466 -410 -32926 166924 2075 119357 17005 9691 18796

126815 -20878 -540 221 -71545 219557 1144 150066 17556 29755 21037

6.6 -5.2 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 45.2 7.8 47.0 46.3 80.4 267.5

13.0 -24.8 -0.8 -0.4 -14.0 81.9 6.0 88.5 64.4 337.3 360.2

17.3 -15.9 -1.1 0.2 -32.3 91.3 3.1 96.6 46.0 643.9 357.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

749474 81418 529724 503451 26273 135011 3321

817569 98469 525771 507009 18762 191643 1687

992640 116998 595148 560406 34742 278955 1538

1155423 109062 647187 621430 25757 397699 1476

1155471 112858 616089 598874 17215 424784 1740

-55904 -20979 -17081 -17018 -63 -17767 -78

-116391 -28478 -39256 -36159 -3097 -48548 -110

-159857 -71815 -56288 -52297 -3991 -31753 -2

-5.3 -15.2 -2.8 -2.9 -0.2 -6.0 -4.8

-9.2 -20.7 -5.7 -5.5 -10.7 -10.9 -6.9

-12.2 -38.9 -8.4 -8.0 -18.8 -7.0 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1645474 450795 624250 294782 200702 3321 71623

1709133 320708 648970 392603 243761 1687 101405

1880210 274238 669872 462590 253537 1538 218435

1951131 216607 652854 506815 202766 1476 370614

1959300 223504 609572 514755 149762 1740 459967

1758 -29615 -17501 -19037 0 -78 67989

-18715 -63922 -39722 -48958 -32926 -110 166924

-33043 -92693 -56828 -31532 -71545 -2 219557

0.1 -9.7 -2.5 -4.0 0.0 -4.8 45.2

-1.0 -22.8 -5.7 -8.8 -14.0 -6.9 81.9

-1.7 -29.3 -8.5 -5.8 -32.3 -0.1 91.3

27.4 37.9 17.9 12.2 4.4

18.8 38.0 23.0 14.3 5.9

14.6 35.6 24.6 13.5 11.6

11.1 33.5 26.0 10.4 19.0

11.4 31.1 26.3 7.6 23.5

-1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 3.6

-3.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.6 8.7

-4.5 -2.3 -1.1 -3.5 11.4

-9.8 -2.6 -4.0 -0.1 45.1

-22.0 -4.8 -7.9 -13.1 83.7

-28.1 -7.0 -4.2 -31.2 94.6

2561205 794718 291642 1474844

2993398 944823 376697 1671878

3552884 982718 668590 1901576

4073644 785921 967922 2319801

4451329 580476 1164893 2705960

-49282 0 114089 -163371

-90064 -127625 256919 -219359

-113088 -277312 289464 -125240

-1.4 0.0 20.6 -7.9

-2.2 -14.0 36.1 -8.6

-2.5 -32.3 33.1 -4.4

384763 261342 56108 54301 10237 2774 0

402753 225135 43691 109769 21219 2939 0

436726 200792 34464 141841 44684 14945 0

467843 153665 24348 151701 114827 23302 0

510146 168989 21068 145860 148047 26183 0

-15703 -27301 685 -15455 15108 11260 0

-20170 -61882 109 -37523 60432 18694 0

-5052 -90248 933 -14443 77784 20922 0

-3.5 -12.0 2.0 -9.8 51.1 305.6

-4.1 -28.7 0.5 -19.8 111.1 405.7

-1.0 -34.8 4.6 -9.0 110.7 397.7

840016 673728 2 38458 127829

818581 727122 637 19291 71530

831070 732710 27027 17395 53938

849901 722144 62820 16619 48319

823939 683036 83177 16826 40899

-7920 -18524 10124 1959 -1479

-5058 -39008 31496 2703 -248

-8199 -56192 45806 1982 205

-0.9 -2.5 59.9 12.7 -2.7

-0.6 -5.1 100.5 19.4 -0.5

-1.0 -7.6 122.6 13.3 0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86644

86114

83375

-1942

-3241

-3691

-2.2

-3.6

-4.2

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

109883

113783

115106

-503

-382

-482

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1284290

1399556

1450192

3130

2368

6928

0.2

0.2

0.5

372041 239834 132206 267394 151680 280091

342654 220752 121902 283857 161545 338258

376667 235111 141556 324921 191374 391327

409129 246585 162544 354884 215024 420519

423932 246664 177268 369486 234742 422032

2597 1909 688 1041 -527 18

2608 1814 794 1434 -1721 46

1996 1332 664 1827 3040 65

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.8 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.0

128087 441141 219636 183815 67635 30892

58191 476894 259889 216343 73194 41802

46721 519177 287337 263327 81993 85734

40871 515195 318958 307876 90810 125846

35434 482679 330989 341067 101258 158765

-598 -12292 -3385 -3258 -1930 24593

-740 -34087 -7442 -5606 -1718 51961

-1056 -52447 -11890 -6827 25 79122

-1.3 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -2.3 40.2

-1.8 -6.2 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 70.3

-2.9 -9.8 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 99.3

4009.9 1483.5 151.1 761.0 516.6 285.7 812.0

3800.2 1359.8 154.0 594.1 459.7 247.7 984.9

3830.2 1281.2 120.8 593.2 490.0 263.8 1081.1

3645.8 1073.9 105.4 609.5 505.2 266.2 1085.5

3571.8 1109.9 89.0 592.6 498.2 242.9 1039.2

-212.7 -152.9 -12.9 -18.5 -3.8 -1.8 -22.8

-485.9 -347.8 -16.4 -29.4 -4.5 -14.9 -72.9

-608.6 -404.6 -15.0 -28.9 -5.3 -45.9 -109.0

-5.3 -10.7 -9.6 -3.0 -0.8 -0.7 -2.1

-11.8 -24.5 -13.5 -4.6 -0.9 -5.3 -6.3

-14.6 -26.7 -14.4 -4.7 -1.0 -15.9 -9.5

100.0

94.8

95.5

90.9

89.1

-5.3

-12.1

-15.2

-5.3

-11.8

-14.6

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

74

EU27: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712 7358.9 223.6 3.48 5418 2.44 8.48 544.9 44.6

483.520 9001.0 189.9 3.53 6191 2.22 7.86 422.2 46.7

492.838 11044.1 170.2 3.82 7209 2.04 7.77 346.8 51.5

496.408 13825.4 141.1 3.93 8206 1.87 7.34 263.7 57.7

494.784 16315.6 120.1 3.96 8997 1.82 7.22 218.9 57.3

0.000 0.0 0.2 0.00 -100 -0.12 -0.43 -19.3 -2.9

0.000 0.0 -1.4 -0.04 -181 -0.23 -0.98 -35.1 -5.2

0.000 0.0 -2.0 -0.07 -229 -0.28 -1.23 -37.3 -6.9

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -1.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.2 -10.9 -11.8 -11.8 -8.3

0.0 0.0 -1.7 -1.7 -2.5 -13.1 -14.6 -14.6 -10.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

80.2 87.2 83.5 98.7

74.9 81.6 78.0 93.1

65.1 71.9 69.1 79.9

57.5 63.7 63.5 68.0

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.3 -0.6 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.8 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.0

0.5 0.5 1.3 0.0

0.42 2.22 2.05 1.93 1.88 2.90

0.30 2.03 1.73 1.62 1.53 2.91

0.24 1.89 1.57 1.51 1.38 2.76

0.18 1.76 1.49 1.42 1.24 2.58

0.17 1.64 1.40 1.35 1.03 2.46

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.06 -0.09 -0.08 -0.02 -0.06 -0.17

-0.06 -0.14 -0.08 -0.02 -0.21 -0.26

-10.9 -2.1 -3.7 -1.1 -0.4 -2.1

-24.1 -4.9 -5.2 -1.3 -4.5 -6.3

-26.2 -7.8 -5.1 -1.5 -17.0 -9.5

697174 145542 105185 12786 176 433485 120284 203503 135927 78309 14723 0 1022

871734 139130 117294 112014 1661 501636 155909 165889 236104 68238 27478 0 3927

1057773 114872 121543 212892 27696 580769 224291 128480 287070 43118 116145 0 5955

1247539 71626 124185 280248 57376 714104 276321 159330 352793 35987 159398 0 6597

22412 0 4918 33208 0 -15714 -7732 -4554 -18265 -1648 6183 0 2570

74299 -5896 3662 83936 22831 -30235 -1426 -43555 -42627 -6033 57542 0 4438

91222 -34810 2016 95745 46940 -18668 2146 -72030 -26506 657 74257 0 4953

2.6 0.0 4.4 42.1 0.0 -3.0 -4.7 -2.7 -7.2 -2.4 29.0

7.6 -4.9 3.1 65.1 469.3 -4.9 -0.6 -25.3 -12.9 -12.3 98.2

7.9 -32.7 1.6 51.9 449.8 -2.5 0.8 -31.1 -7.0 1.9 87.2

189.5

292.5

301.5

35.7 49.0 14.9 46.4 31.6 14.9

37.4 46.5 19.1 51.3 27.7 23.6

42.6 44.0 23.2 58.1 19.3 38.8

45.6 40.7 26.6 57.6 13.0 44.5

-1.8 -1.9 0.5 5.8 0.4 5.5

-2.1 -4.4 0.5 12.9 -2.6 15.6

-1.6 -4.3 0.8 11.6 -5.8 17.4

-4.6 -3.9 2.9 12.9 1.4 30.1

-4.7 -9.0 2.1 28.5 -12.1 66.8

-3.5 -9.6 3.0 25.3 -30.6 64.1

5568.5 502.3 4316.4 417.8 298.4 33.6

6595.5 517.0 5126.8 456.8 455.1 39.8

7621.1 504.4 5954.9 491.2 625.1 45.5

8423.5 494.2 6589.1 522.8 767.7 49.6

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.0 0.0

-1.3 0.1 1.1 -2.6 0.1 0.0

-1.5 0.1 1.3 -3.0 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4769.3 554.1 3567.1 450.2 168.5 29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13383

15352

17025

-1.0

-2.7

-2.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1861.5 1075.1 524.7 261.8

2177.1 1507.0 396.1 274.0

2684.4 1959.3 425.5 299.6

3201.0 2426.1 444.7 330.2

3644.8 2825.4 464.2 355.2

-0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.0

-0.9 0.8 -1.7 0.1

-0.9 1.1 -2.1 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

232

223

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

280091 8685 139578 85770 9564 29449 7044

338258 7514 160719 109568 9423 45553 5481

391327 7473 173948 140465 8595 54631 6215

420519 6706 174117 164509 6746 61702 6738

422032 5745 166336 174744 6257 61904 7046

18 1 13 17 -17 4 1

46 1 29 49 -45 10 1

65 1 33 64 -46 11 2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

38.9 50.8

39.8 53.6

36.9 55.2

32.6 53.8

28.4 50.1

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

75

EU28: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

961237 377116 132112 162820 200702 88487 27003 57710 67 173 3534

963855 227617 172757 208170 243761 111549 33138 71804 1916 679 4012

967836 166465 126249 184634 253537 236951 37756 149636 23605 3923 22031

901469 120629 62087 110451 202766 405536 40264 263461 44636 24030 33146

942894 125534 52853 91392 153233 519883 41705 317068 57517 66069 37524

63536 -9945 -420 -1345 0 75246 2891 46469 7615 1615 16657

115726 -36013 -466 -430 -32926 185562 2359 121200 17495 17981 26527

164173 -20878 -540 221 -71543 256914 1144 152856 18087 54829 29998

7.0 -5.6 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 46.5 8.3 45.0 47.6 69.9 309.9

14.7 -23.0 -0.7 -0.4 -14.0 84.4 6.2 85.2 64.5 297.2 400.8

21.1 -14.3 -1.0 0.2 -31.8 97.7 2.8 93.1 45.9 487.8 398.6

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

776740 85626 550163 523502 26661 137693 3259

868442 107717 555056 528467 26589 203694 1975

1060438 129017 627768 590721 37047 302432 1222

1251315 123743 697273 668080 29193 429055 1244

1289507 131179 686380 664407 21973 470519 1429

-58696 -21642 -17446 -17360 -86 -19530 -78

-127902 -29629 -40989 -37780 -3209 -57174 -110

-179295 -74613 -57919 -53823 -4096 -46761 -2

-5.2 -14.4 -2.7 -2.9 -0.2 -6.1 -6.0

-9.3 -19.3 -5.6 -5.4 -9.9 -11.8 -8.1

-12.2 -36.3 -7.8 -7.5 -15.7 -9.0 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1704962 467717 647159 297637 200702 3259 88487

1786487 343986 679975 405241 243761 1975 111549

1979494 295482 705237 487066 253537 1222 236951

2099105 244372 705681 539506 202766 1244 405536

2175991 256713 682824 561910 153233 1429 519883

4841 -31587 -17866 -20875 0 -78 75246

-12175 -65642 -41455 -57604 -32926 -110 185562

-15121 -95491 -58459 -46540 -71543 -2 256914

0.2 -9.7 -2.5 -4.1 0.0 -6.0 46.5

-0.6 -21.2 -5.5 -9.6 -14.0 -8.1 84.4

-0.7 -27.1 -7.9 -7.6 -31.8 -0.1 97.7

27.4 38.0 17.5 11.8 5.2

19.3 38.1 22.7 13.6 6.2

14.9 35.6 24.6 12.8 12.0

11.6 33.6 25.7 9.7 19.3

11.8 31.4 25.8 7.0 23.9

-1.6 -1.0 -1.1 0.0 3.8

-3.0 -1.8 -2.6 -1.5 8.9

-4.3 -2.5 -1.9 -3.2 11.9

-9.9 -2.7 -4.3 -0.2 46.2

-20.7 -5.0 -9.1 -13.5 85.4

-26.6 -7.2 -7.0 -31.4 99.1

2618738 794718 314786 1509233

3118298 944823 407604 1765871

3724589 982718 715069 2026803

4328103 785921 1042589 2499594

4846773 593929 1253193 2999651

-50514 0 122167 -172681

-94419 -127625 281907 -248702

-117125 -277304 314210 -154032

-1.3 0.0 20.6 -7.9

-2.1 -14.0 37.1 -9.0

-2.4 -31.8 33.5 -4.9

393649 266482 57294 56793 10237 2842 0

424378 235098 46624 118348 21304 3004 0

466584 209023 36455 155133 45493 20480 0

510789 171290 25466 166031 116795 31208 0

568129 194522 21963 166065 150179 35399 0

-13574 -29200 733 -17128 15419 16602 0

-16743 -63336 130 -41168 61224 26407 0

-772 -92484 918 -17332 78274 29852 0

-2.8 -12.3 2.1 -9.9 51.3 428.1

-3.2 -27.0 0.5 -19.9 110.2 550.1

-0.1 -32.2 4.4 -9.5 108.9 538.2

867592 696742 2 38458 132391

846345 750941 637 19291 75474

868001 766269 27139 17432 57161

903516 772175 63373 16740 51227

898007 752308 85192 17040 43467

-8249 -18866 10146 1960 -1489

-6384 -40629 31775 2698 -228

-8634 -57718 46896 1977 211

-0.9 -2.4 59.7 12.7 -2.5

-0.7 -5.0 100.6 19.2 -0.4

-1.0 -7.1 122.5 13.1 0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

80396

88538

89547

90014

88313

-2019

-3299

-3777

-2.2

-3.5

-4.1

101612

112692

113259

117749

119620

-517

-401

-508

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1358559

1514448

1626822

3499

3165

18301

0.3

0.2

1.1

384219 245670 138549 281949 154275 289441

363322 228215 135107 300854 166339 350426

403873 243448 160425 344703 200076 409907

449947 257047 192900 383913 228950 451637

485844 260089 225755 410480 262950 467548

2626 1935 690 1385 -531 19

2635 1842 793 2104 -1622 49

2014 1359 655 2780 13439 67

0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 -0.7 0.0

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 5.4 0.0

136126 458929 220792 187680 67875 38483

68674 499706 264489 224587 74443 49041

58097 549025 299121 275564 82869 93884

49556 563030 337914 327123 92467 144358

41905 550814 358077 371141 105549 199337

-669 -12592 -3593 -3304 -1838 25496

-1010 -35817 -12395 -5924 -1563 59874

-1579 -54039 -23943 -7099 301 104660

-1.1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 37.3

-2.0 -6.0 -3.5 -1.8 -1.7 70.9

-3.6 -8.9 -6.3 -1.9 0.3 110.5

4136.3 1515.0 155.8 796.2 538.0 291.5 839.9

3998.9 1431.1 159.9 650.1 481.6 255.8 1020.5

4065.8 1353.0 122.5 665.1 515.4 274.7 1135.0

3976.4 1183.7 105.9 704.7 543.7 264.2 1174.3

4016.4 1264.5 89.4 720.5 551.3 225.0 1165.6

-226.1 -164.4 -13.1 -19.1 -3.9 -2.8 -22.8

-518.2 -362.1 -16.4 -30.8 -4.4 -31.0 -73.6

-659.5 -420.3 -15.0 -31.5 -5.8 -75.4 -111.5

-5.3 -10.8 -9.6 -2.8 -0.7 -1.0 -2.0

-11.5 -23.4 -13.4 -4.2 -0.8 -10.5 -5.9

-14.1 -24.9 -14.4 -4.2 -1.0 -25.1 -8.7

100.0

96.7

98.3

96.1

97.1

-5.5

-12.5

-15.9

-5.3

-11.5

-14.1

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

76

EU28: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913 7511.4 227.0 3.22 4951 2.43 7.82 550.7 44.6

550.981 9217.8 193.8 3.24 5660 2.24 7.26 433.8 47.5

569.992 11370.5 174.1 3.47 6534 2.05 7.13 357.6 52.3

582.152 14408.7 145.7 3.61 7435 1.89 6.83 276.0 58.1

587.546 17374.7 125.2 3.70 8249 1.85 6.84 231.2 57.8

0.000 0.0 0.4 0.01 -89 -0.12 -0.40 -19.9 -3.0

0.000 0.0 -0.8 -0.02 -162 -0.23 -0.89 -36.0 -5.6

0.000 0.0 -0.9 -0.03 -199 -0.29 -1.12 -38.0 -7.6

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.3 -5.5 -5.3 -5.3 -5.5

0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -2.1 -11.0 -11.5 -11.5 -8.8

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -2.4 -13.5 -14.1 -14.1 -11.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.8 87.3 84.3 98.7

76.4 81.4 79.6 93.6

66.9 72.2 71.0 81.3

59.6 64.2 67.2 69.8

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.0

0.2 0.4 3.4 0.0

0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.6 -0.7 0.0

0.4 0.7 5.4 0.0

0.42 2.22 2.07 1.91 1.89 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.79 1.60 1.54 2.91

0.24 1.91 1.65 1.50 1.37 2.77

0.19 1.77 1.57 1.42 1.15 2.60

0.18 1.64 1.48 1.34 0.86 2.49

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.06 -0.10 -0.08 -0.02 -0.13 -0.16

-0.06 -0.16 -0.07 -0.02 -0.35 -0.24

-11.1 -2.1 -3.4 -1.1 -0.8 -2.0

-23.0 -5.1 -4.7 -1.3 -9.9 -5.9

-24.5 -8.8 -4.6 -1.7 -28.9 -8.7

725459 145542 116592 12806 176 450343 122684 210547 143140 80801 14814 0 1040

914219 139130 129406 113708 1661 530314 160992 175981 249304 71743 28124 0 5163

1122194 114872 134369 220170 38157 614627 233530 138418 305290 45148 118056 0 7716

1349943 73342 138040 293933 69644 774984 294581 180986 383588 37891 163868 0 8652

25397 0 5472 34289 0 -14365 -7571 -4554 -18305 -1712 6467 0 3739

84109 -5896 4205 87888 33261 -35349 -2210 -46273 -47508 -6097 58398 0 6131

104817 -34809 2221 101679 59061 -23335 2719 -76517 -30829 594 76501 0 6916

2.9 0.0 4.4 43.2 0.0 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -6.8 -2.3 29.9

8.1 -4.9 3.2 66.4 679.3 -5.4 -0.9 -25.1 -13.5 -11.9 97.9

8.4 -32.2 1.6 52.9 558.1 -2.9 0.9 -29.7 -7.4 1.6 87.6

262.6

386.9

398.5

35.8 49.1 14.8 45.6 30.3 15.3

37.4 46.5 18.8 50.4 26.4 24.0

42.1 44.0 22.8 56.8 18.2 38.7

45.4 41.0 26.0 55.4 12.3 43.1

-2.0 -2.0 0.5 6.0 0.4 5.6

-2.7 -4.6 0.4 13.0 -2.5 15.5

-2.3 -4.5 0.8 11.4 -5.3 16.7

-5.2 -4.1 2.8 13.5 1.4 30.7

-6.1 -9.5 1.7 29.7 -12.1 67.1

-4.8 -9.9 3.1 26.0 -30.2 63.4

5752.9 589.7 4397.4 423.6 304.7 37.4

6896.7 618.6 5301.1 465.4 466.6 45.1

8263.5 625.7 6414.1 511.6 656.7 55.4

9492.9 606.4 7428.9 562.1 832.3 63.2

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0

-1.4 0.1 1.1 -2.7 0.1 0.0

-1.5 0.1 1.4 -3.2 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2 618.4 3601.6 456.6 170.7 33.9 9229

10441

12100

14195

16157

-0.9

-2.4

-2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

1958.3 1159.5 532.6 266.3

2352.3 1668.6 405.9 277.8

2946.9 2204.6 437.3 305.0

3611.1 2810.0 463.0 338.1

4230.5 3374.7 490.4 365.3

-0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.0

-0.9 0.8 -1.8 0.1

-1.0 1.2 -2.2 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0

261

255

259

251

243

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

289441 9634 140266 92511 9807 29928 7295

350426 8758 162549 116941 9691 46814 5673

409907 8911 177497 151636 8864 56516 6483

451637 8329 182365 181056 7038 65667 7182

467548 7120 181011 196786 6693 68312 7624

19 1 13 17 -17 4 1

49 1 30 51 -46 11 1

67 1 34 67 -48 11 2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

38.5 51.8

39.3 52.8

36.3 54.1

31.8 52.3

27.7 48.4

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

77

Europe-30: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

1091087 377317 216359 186970 206883 103557 40003 59720 67 173 3595

1200143 228042 337714 253987 250675 129725 48250 74749 1919 703 4103

1210632 166999 255032 269995 260539 258068 53075 154851 24049 3972 22121

1174921 120907 186406 227523 209908 430177 56955 270698 45163 24120 33241

1168215 125829 134689 203503 157814 546380 58958 325206 58402 66200 37615

52302 -9945 -3174 -10980 0 76400 3132 47272 7703 1636 16657

115029 -36062 -466 -3511 -32926 187995 2667 123332 17434 18033 26528

158796 -20886 -540 -5593 -73948 259764 1487 155296 18081 54902 29998

4.5 -5.6 -1.2 -3.9 0.0 42.1 6.3 43.9 47.1 70.0 304.8

10.9 -23.0 -0.2 -1.5 -13.6 77.6 4.9 83.7 62.9 296.3 395.2

15.7 -14.2 -0.4 -2.7 -31.9 90.6 2.6 91.4 44.8 485.9 393.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

695727 86632 490237 458354 31883 117149 1710

684878 108508 412700 384418 28282 163941 -272

875845 129674 521621 482355 39266 224732 -182

1039423 124151 594743 563645 31097 320610 -81

1124259 131500 625217 601908 23309 367495 47

-47889 -21798 -15043 -15027 -16 -10971 -78

-127205 -29758 -41933 -38515 -3418 -55403 -110

-175139 -74714 -59040 -54754 -4286 -41383 -2

-5.2 -14.4 -2.8 -3.0 0.0 -4.7 74.3

-10.9 -19.3 -6.6 -6.4 -9.9 -14.7 -385.7

-13.5 -36.2 -8.6 -8.3 -15.5 -10.1 -3.7

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1751588 468937 669257 301245 206883 1710 103557

1839144 345317 702393 411306 250675 -272 129725

2036637 296673 726813 494726 260539 -182 258068

2159373 245058 726178 548133 209908 -81 430177

2234551 257329 701983 570998 157814 47 546380

4413 -31743 -18217 -21950 0 -78 76400

-12176 -65820 -42400 -58915 -32926 -110 187995

-16343 -95601 -59580 -46976 -73948 -2 259764

0.2 -9.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.0 74.3 42.1

-0.6 -21.2 -5.5 -9.7 -13.6 -385.7 77.6

-0.7 -27.1 -7.8 -7.6 -31.9 -3.7 90.6

26.8 38.2 17.2 11.8 5.9

18.8 38.2 22.4 13.6 7.1

14.6 35.7 24.3 12.8 12.7

11.3 33.6 25.4 9.7 19.9

11.5 31.4 25.6 7.1 24.5

-1.6 -1.0 -1.1 0.0 3.7

-3.0 -1.8 -2.6 -1.5 8.8

-4.2 -2.4 -1.9 -3.2 11.7

-9.9 -2.7 -4.5 -0.2 41.7

-20.7 -5.0 -9.2 -13.1 78.6

-26.6 -7.1 -6.9 -31.4 92.0

2794856 818651 465941 1510263

3323905 971593 583374 1768938

3940360 1009830 898386 2032145

4566772 813578 1242863 2510332

5098853 611669 1464241 3022943

-51229 0 125991 -177220

-95567 -127625 284790 -252733

-118784 -286617 318136 -150302

-1.3 0.0 16.3 -8.0

-2.0 -13.6 29.7 -9.1

-2.3 -31.9 27.8 -4.7

394358 266510 57394 56913 10698 2842 0

425676 235114 46636 118562 22359 3004 0

468467 209152 36633 155155 47047 20480 0

513640 171311 25553 166186 119381 31208 0

572944 194522 22020 167302 153701 35399 0

-14119 -29266 751 -17977 15770 16602 0

-17239 -63336 149 -41947 61487 26407 0

-292 -92484 909 -16749 78180 29852 0

-2.9 -12.3 2.1 -10.4 50.4 428.1

-3.2 -27.0 0.6 -20.2 106.2 550.1

-0.1 -32.2 4.3 -9.1 103.5 538.2

884427 713481 2 38512 132432

866713 771184 637 19379 75512

888404 785912 27572 17734 57187

924981 791449 65158 17131 51243

919614 771122 87532 17486 43474

-8548 -19281 10243 1979 -1489

-6126 -41361 32758 2712 -236

-8217 -58646 48219 2007 203

-1.0 -2.4 59.1 12.6 -2.5

-0.7 -5.0 101.1 18.8 -0.5

-0.9 -7.1 122.7 13.0 0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

83789

92950

93897

94431

91929

-2317

-3369

-3894

-2.4

-3.4

-4.1

103762

115166

115464

119885

121797

-523

-406

-514

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1402583

1561417

1674169

3562

3249

18397

0.3

0.2

1.1

394004 252212 141792 290806 160718 299860

375356 236839 138517 310280 172911 361964

416473 252406 164067 354990 208247 422873

463733 266683 197050 394801 237840 465043

500119 269840 230280 421391 272151 480508

2668 1970 698 1414 -539 19

2699 1889 810 2154 -1654 50

2090 1413 677 2834 13405 68

0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 -0.7 0.0

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 5.2 0.0

137278 477192 222317 200044 68198 40359

69933 518412 266915 238509 75229 51512

59063 568120 303057 291062 83906 97375

50178 581551 342361 344742 94015 148570

42478 567966 362576 389953 107747 203450

-747 -12809 -3637 -3364 -1777 25896

-1153 -36757 -12817 -6020 -1480 61475

-1662 -55163 -24681 -7229 341 106791

-1.2 -2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -2.1 36.2

-2.2 -5.9 -3.6 -1.7 -1.6 70.6

-3.8 -8.9 -6.4 -1.8 0.3 110.5

4207.7 1515.7 163.4 807.4 551.3 300.2 869.6

4076.8 1431.7 170.4 663.2 493.5 264.5 1053.4

4146.2 1354.5 131.4 676.3 527.7 285.2 1171.2

4054.7 1184.8 114.8 716.4 555.3 274.6 1208.9

4091.1 1268.0 96.5 732.6 561.5 234.9 1197.6

-230.2 -166.7 -13.8 -19.8 -3.9 -2.9 -23.0

-524.8 -364.1 -16.6 -32.7 -4.4 -31.2 -75.8

-664.3 -419.5 -15.3 -33.5 -5.8 -75.6 -114.7

-5.3 -11.0 -9.5 -2.8 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9

-11.5 -23.5 -12.6 -4.4 -0.8 -10.2 -5.9

-14.0 -24.9 -13.7 -4.4 -1.0 -24.3 -8.7

100.0

96.9

98.5

96.4

97.2

-5.5

-12.5

-15.8

-5.3

-11.5

-14.0

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

78

Europe-30: High renewables case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950 7877.3 222.4 3.24 5176 2.40 7.79 534.2 38.9

562.681 9665.6 190.3 3.27 5907 2.22 7.25 421.8 36.4

582.130 11898.8 171.2 3.50 6769 2.04 7.12 348.5 42.0

594.587 15057.8 143.4 3.63 7681 1.88 6.82 269.3 46.9

600.252 18137.4 123.2 3.72 8495 1.83 6.82 225.6 49.0

0.000 0.0 0.4 0.01 -88 -0.12 -0.40 -19.3 -2.4

0.000 0.0 -0.8 -0.02 -161 -0.23 -0.88 -34.8 -5.5

0.000 0.0 -0.9 -0.03 -198 -0.28 -1.11 -36.6 -7.2

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.3 -5.5 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -2.0 -11.0 -11.5 -11.5 -10.4

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -2.3 -13.3 -14.0 -14.0 -12.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.7 87.4 84.5 98.4

76.3 81.4 80.0 93.4

66.8 72.1 71.3 81.1

59.5 64.1 67.3 69.6

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.0

0.2 0.4 3.3 0.0

0.6 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.5 -0.7 0.0

0.4 0.7 5.2 0.0

0.40 2.21 2.05 1.90 1.87 2.90

0.29 2.03 1.77 1.59 1.53 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.62 1.49 1.37 2.77

0.18 1.76 1.54 1.41 1.15 2.60

0.17 1.63 1.46 1.33 0.86 2.49

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.05

-0.05 -0.10 -0.08 -0.02 -0.12 -0.16

-0.06 -0.16 -0.07 -0.02 -0.34 -0.24

-11.2 -2.1 -3.5 -1.1 -0.8 -1.9

-23.1 -5.2 -4.9 -1.3 -9.6 -5.9

-24.4 -8.8 -4.8 -1.7 -28.1 -8.8

769539 148992 155831 12886 195 451636 123656 210703 143723 80968 15202 0 1040

963914 142580 171008 115821 1705 532800 162370 176074 250786 71898 28879 0 5163

1175557 118322 177954 223035 38267 617979 235554 138433 306772 45225 119834 0 7716

1406336 75575 182097 298227 69875 780563 298189 180986 385970 37955 167000 0 8652

26105 0 5792 34860 0 -14547 -7420 -4554 -18652 -1700 6619 0 3739

84318 -5896 4640 88017 33261 -35703 -1985 -46273 -48135 -6087 58661 0 6131

104778 -36000 2758 102003 59061 -23044 2941 -76517 -30363 598 76323 0 6916

2.8 0.0 3.5 43.1 0.0 -2.7 -4.4 -2.5 -6.9 -2.3 29.7

7.7 -4.7 2.7 65.2 664.3 -5.5 -0.8 -25.1 -13.6 -11.9 95.9

8.1 -32.3 1.5 52.0 546.1 -2.9 1.0 -29.7 -7.3 1.6 84.2

262.6

386.9

398.5

35.7 49.3 14.0 48.9 29.2 19.6

37.3 46.7 17.9 53.1 25.6 27.4

42.0 44.3 21.8 59.0 17.8 41.2

45.4 41.4 25.1 57.4 12.0 45.4

-2.1 -1.9 0.5 5.8 0.3 5.5

-2.7 -4.4 0.4 12.5 -2.4 14.9

-2.2 -4.4 0.8 10.9 -5.2 16.1

-5.2 -4.0 2.7 12.4 1.3 25.1

-6.1 -9.1 1.6 26.9 -11.8 56.5

-4.7 -9.6 3.2 23.3 -30.3 54.7

5925.5 596.9 4530.1 443.8 316.3 38.4

7097.8 626.8 5454.5 488.2 482.0 46.2

8486.6 634.4 6583.8 536.1 675.6 56.7

9728.2 615.5 7607.6 587.4 853.1 64.6

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0

-1.4 0.1 1.1 -2.7 0.1 0.0

-1.6 0.1 1.4 -3.2 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5 625.6 3720.2 473.5 178.7 34.5 9320

10531

12193

14273

16207

-0.9

-2.3

-2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

2026.8 1179.2 544.1 303.5

2447.9 1705.6 419.3 323.0

3059.5 2256.0 453.1 350.4

3742.7 2879.7 479.5 383.5

4375.9 3461.3 507.0 407.7

-0.4 0.3 -0.8 0.0

-0.9 0.8 -1.9 0.1

-1.0 1.2 -2.3 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0

257

253

257

249

241

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

299860 9802 145794 94266 10142 31627 8229

361964 8917 168062 119351 10079 49160 6394

422873 9088 183293 155004 9262 59006 7218

465043 8501 187799 185375 7361 68097 7910

480508 7272 185944 201523 6982 70492 8296

19 1 14 18 -17 4 1

50 1 31 52 -47 11 1

68 1 34 68 -48 12 2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0

38.9 51.4

39.6 52.0

36.5 53.5

31.9 51.8

27.8 48.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

79

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers. Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km. Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions EU15: EU15 Member States EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania EU28: EU27 + Turkey Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) Mtoe: million toe GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

80

APPENDIX 3: “12% renewables share in 2010” case results Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

81

EU25: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

877543 351650 120396 139723 196920 68855 23391 42151 67 145 3101

898598 204139 163631 196665 237664 96499 28982 61865 1913 417 3322

892051 146468 116780 171122 248776 208905 31986 136548 22993 2690 14689

780333 101031 52753 97988 205782 322779 34034 218725 40729 8013 21278

764966 106456 43279 80031 156672 378527 34923 247648 53691 16542 25724

55635 -8059 -399 -1057 0 65150 2108 44141 7207 1200 10495

73812 -30051 -205 -361 -22856 127286 1831 89533 14488 5267 16168

79863 -13741 -171 226 -54136 147685 1042 98768 15749 12148 19978

6.7 -5.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 45.3 7.1 47.8 45.7 80.5 250.3

10.4 -22.9 -0.4 -0.4 -10.0 65.1 5.7 69.3 55.2 191.7 316.4

11.7 -11.4 -0.4 0.3 -25.7 64.0 3.1 66.3 41.5 276.5 347.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

711300 75449 510017 479112 30905 123653 2181

801061 94307 518147 496826 21321 186463 2144

969632 111743 584029 545723 38306 271700 2159

1144127 102115 648443 616890 31553 391459 2110

1152738 109241 625578 601216 24362 415719 2200

-54643 -20544 -15669 -15634 -35 -18352 -77

-87564 -26279 -21422 -19785 -1637 -39851 -12

-112829 -63679 -26871 -25034 -1837 -22278 -1

-5.3 -15.5 -2.6 -2.8 -0.1 -6.3 -3.4

-7.1 -20.5 -3.2 -3.1 -4.9 -9.2 -0.6

-8.9 -36.8 -4.1 -4.0 -7.0 -5.1 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1556194 431944 595746 260548 196920 2181 68855

1653841 306538 634711 376284 237664 2144 96499

1813524 258212 652650 442822 248776 2159 208905

1871584 203146 648321 489447 205782 2110 322779

1862272 215697 613424 495750 156672 2200 378527

992 -28603 -16068 -19409 0 -77 65150

-13752 -56331 -21627 -40212 -22856 -12 127286

-32966 -77419 -27042 -22052 -54136 -1 147685

0.1 -10.0 -2.4 -4.2 0.0 -3.4 45.3

-0.7 -21.7 -3.2 -7.6 -10.0 -0.6 65.1

-1.7 -26.4 -4.2 -4.3 -25.7 -0.1 64.0

27.8 38.3 16.7 12.7 4.4

18.5 38.4 22.8 14.4 5.8

14.2 36.0 24.4 13.7 11.5

10.9 34.6 26.2 11.0 17.2

11.6 32.9 26.6 8.4 20.3

-1.6 -0.9 -1.1 0.0 3.6

-2.9 -0.9 -1.9 -1.1 6.9

-3.9 -0.9 -0.7 -2.7 8.1

-10.0 -2.5 -4.3 -0.1 45.2

-21.1 -2.5 -6.9 -9.3 66.3

-25.1 -2.5 -2.6 -24.4 66.9

2455674 780056 272788 1402830

2900835 921193 359249 1620392

3436495 964265 640851 1831379

3935119 797614 898338 2239167

4280133 607261 1092825 2580046

-46690 0 108307 -154997

-70656 -88592 214487 -196550

-86466 -209830 249102 -125738

-1.3 0.0 20.3 -7.8

-1.8 -10.0 31.4 -8.1

-2.0 -25.7 29.5 -4.6

355362 246377 48954 47057 10201 2774 0

385987 214488 41870 105480 21211 2939 0

416917 188674 32410 137878 43799 14156 0

444834 144106 23613 151915 104450 20749 0

483017 164817 20863 145014 127108 25215 0

-15324 -26275 777 -14948 14652 10471 0

-17937 -54396 302 -30816 50831 16142 0

-7021 -75494 1069 -10234 57684 19954 0

-3.5 -12.2 2.5 -9.8 50.3 284.2

-3.9 -27.4 1.3 -16.9 94.8 350.3

-1.4 -31.4 5.4 -6.6 83.1 379.3

797634 642275 2 31035 124322

796450 710448 637 17261 68104

806265 711806 26888 17186 50386

820390 712790 46701 15958 44941

791063 681157 56156 15808 37942

-6632 -17116 10095 1936 -1547

-3705 -21234 15696 2140 -307

-6002 -26946 19781 1075 88

-0.8 -2.3 60.1 12.7 -3.0

-0.4 -2.9 50.6 15.5 -0.7

-0.8 -3.8 54.4 7.3 0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79696

78960

75355

-1802

-2206

-2779

-2.2

-2.7

-3.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107358

110853

111727

-490

-347

-438

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1241027

1340618

1372376

3020

2114

1923

0.2

0.2

0.1

341087 216809 124278 261006 146622 273198

330062 211616 118446 273302 158975 333020

359040 222660 136379 312870 187966 381151

384970 230133 154837 339636 210474 405538

393674 226274 167400 352280 224091 402331

2619 1901 719 904 -521 18

2568 1741 827 895 -1382 32

2109 1342 767 995 -1226 45

0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.5 0.0

123937 428121 200242 176468 63092 30053

56633 468312 251885 211352 68712 38465

44646 505494 275806 256211 78389 80481

38760 511703 304031 298560 85834 101730

33466 486995 315569 329035 94876 112435

-556 -11848 -3369 -3099 -1788 23680

-660 -18192 -5695 -4358 -1857 32876

-558 -24842 -5828 -5008 -449 38609

-1.2 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 41.7

-1.7 -3.4 -1.8 -1.4 -2.1 47.7

-1.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.5 -0.5 52.3

3776.1 1362.6 141.5 698.9 506.1 274.2 792.7

3674.1 1294.9 144.9 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9

3677.0 1215.1 111.2 559.7 479.2 260.0 1051.9

3547.7 1034.0 102.1 570.6 492.2 269.6 1079.2

3518.2 1090.1 86.9 547.4 484.0 263.9 1045.9

-204.9 -146.8 -12.8 -17.3 -3.5 -1.8 -22.7

-380.9 -299.3 -11.9 -24.6 -2.7 -6.2 -36.3

-436.8 -334.0 -12.7 -22.5 -2.8 -18.0 -47.0

-5.3 -10.8 -10.3 -3.0 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1

-9.7 -22.4 -10.4 -4.1 -0.5 -2.3 -3.3

-11.0 -23.5 -12.8 -3.9 -0.6 -6.4 -4.3

100.0

97.3

97.4

93.9

93.2

-5.4

-10.1

-11.6

-5.3

-9.7

-11.0

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

82

EU25: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788 7294.7 213.3 3.53 5571 2.43 8.57 517.7 44.7

452.915 8947.0 184.8 3.65 6405 2.22 8.11 410.7 47.2

464.054 10946.8 165.7 3.91 7405 2.03 7.92 335.9 52.1

469.270 13656.3 137.0 3.99 8386 1.90 7.56 259.8 59.5

469.365 16051.4 116.0 3.97 9119 1.89 7.50 219.2 60.1

0.000 0.0 0.1 0.00 -101 -0.11 -0.44 -18.7 -3.0

0.000 0.0 -1.0 -0.03 -151 -0.19 -0.81 -27.9 -4.1

0.000 0.0 -2.1 -0.07 -184 -0.20 -0.93 -27.2 -4.8

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -1.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.8 -9.0 -9.7 -9.7 -6.4

0.0 0.0 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -9.5 -11.0 -11.0 -7.3

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

83.8 85.8 84.9 99.4

77.8 80.6 79.3 93.0

67.1 70.8 70.2 79.3

58.8 62.7 63.0 66.9

0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.2 -0.5 0.0

0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.7 0.0

0.5 0.3 -0.5 0.0

0.41 2.22 2.05 1.94 1.87 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.72 1.65 1.54 2.91

0.24 1.89 1.56 1.53 1.38 2.76

0.18 1.80 1.48 1.45 1.28 2.66

0.18 1.71 1.39 1.37 1.18 2.60

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.05 -0.05 -0.07 -0.01 -0.02 -0.09

-0.05 -0.07 -0.06 -0.01 -0.07 -0.12

-11.0 -2.1 -3.7 -1.0 -0.4 -2.1

-22.2 -3.0 -4.8 -0.8 -1.6 -3.3

-23.1 -3.8 -4.5 -0.8 -5.9 -4.3

661750 141082 97168 12785 176 410539 112958 188879 131875 74302 14462 0 1022

833066 136430 108102 110612 1658 476264 145634 152347 228478 65077 26610 0 3752

998432 111389 111655 197261 20983 557144 207981 115015 287512 42583 106668 0 5365

1169772 74925 113742 263863 45495 671746 251457 148994 341190 35753 139430 0 6380

22559 0 4168 32221 0 -13830 -5237 -4189 -16960 -972 5896 0 2396

55851 -5547 3038 69637 16134 -27410 -980 -41790 -33695 -5347 49574 0 3848

73480 -26291 1541 80932 35131 -17833 3458 -62242 -18944 787 57829 0 4736

2.8 0.0 4.0 41.1 0.0 -2.8 -3.5 -2.7 -6.9 -1.5 28.5

5.9 -4.7 2.8 54.6 332.7 -4.7 -0.5 -26.7 -10.5 -11.2 86.8

6.7 -26.0 1.4 44.2 339.0 -2.6 1.4 -29.5 -5.3 2.3 70.9

176.6

253.7

288.3

36.1 50.0 14.5 46.5 31.8 14.7

37.8 47.1 18.7 51.5 28.1 23.5

43.3 45.0 22.2 57.2 20.3 36.9

45.9 41.8 25.1 56.2 14.2 42.0

-1.7 -2.0 0.8 5.8 0.4 5.4

-2.0 -3.5 0.3 11.6 -1.9 13.5

-1.5 -3.7 0.8 9.9 -4.5 14.4

-4.4 -4.0 4.5 12.6 1.4 29.8

-4.4 -7.3 1.5 25.5 -8.4 57.5

-3.3 -8.1 3.3 21.3 -24.2 52.1

5466.3 480.1 4253.1 402.7 296.9 33.6

6448.9 495.1 5017.0 445.5 451.6 39.7

7401.0 480.6 5781.6 476.5 616.8 45.5

8129.1 466.8 6359.6 503.4 749.8 49.5

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.0 0.0

-1.0 0.1 0.8 -2.0 0.1 0.0

-1.1 0.1 1.0 -2.3 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4640.8 504.1 3529.3 411.9 166.3 29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15771

17319

-1.0

-2.2

-2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1753.9 1034.1 461.7 258.1

2131.5 1486.3 374.2 271.0

2581.8 1891.4 401.3 289.0

3048.1 2312.2 420.2 315.6

3431.3 2658.1 437.5 335.7

-0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.0

-0.7 0.6 -1.3 0.0

-0.6 0.8 -1.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

223

214

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

273198 7841 138202 82444 9066 28932 6714

333020 7018 158349 108068 8897 45320 5368

381151 7021 170190 135664 8290 54178 5808

405538 6275 168923 156865 6484 60785 6206

402331 5321 159876 164429 5985 60367 6353

18 1 13 16 -17 4 0

32 1 22 34 -34 8 1

45 1 25 44 -34 9 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

39.3 51.7

39.9 53.9

37.0 55.3

32.7 53.7

28.4 49.9

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

83

EU15: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

707946 210737 117782 132975 181439 65014 22275 39426 67 145 3101

761643 100172 160552 190581 222846 87491 27627 54257 1912 381 3315

753408 62219 114420 165365 231522 179881 30263 112600 21919 2374 12726

640504 44799 50633 92686 188195 264191 32174 168379 38187 7244 18206

612763 53034 41445 75242 134636 308405 32973 188575 49642 14852 22363

43771 -6039 -398 -1055 0 51262 1846 33281 6539 1049 8547

60004 -15197 -195 -349 -18967 94712 1632 62155 13009 4799 13117

61029 -5584 -152 226 -42950 109490 959 66169 14735 10986 16642

6.2 -8.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 39.9 6.5 42.0 42.5 79.2 204.6

10.3 -25.3 -0.4 -0.4 -9.2 55.9 5.3 58.5 51.7 196.3 257.7

11.1 -9.5 -0.4 0.3 -24.2 55.0 3.0 54.1 42.2 284.2 290.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

643284 89663 458793 435365 23428 92495 2333

741591 110142 472543 455606 16937 155262 3644

879392 118514 529246 500122 29124 227809 3823

1022839 99033 584797 563711 21087 335236 3773

1020453 105225 556362 543237 13124 353906 4961

-45033 -16567 -13513 -13710 197 -14953 -1

-72061 -24444 -18766 -17421 -1345 -28850 -1

-90390 -54728 -23056 -21664 -1392 -12605 -1

-4.9 -12.3 -2.5 -2.7 0.7 -6.2 0.0

-6.6 -19.8 -3.1 -3.0 -6.0 -7.9 0.0

-8.1 -34.2 -4.0 -3.8 -9.6 -3.4 0.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1319965 303612 544159 223408 181439 2333 65014

1456936 215739 587926 339289 222846 3644 87491

1585782 180733 596649 393174 231522 3823 179881

1611741 143832 583828 427922 188195 3773 264191

1579139 158259 543731 429148 134636 4961 308405

-1263 -22606 -13911 -16007 0 -1 51262

-12056 -39641 -18961 -29198 -18967 -1 94712

-29361 -60312 -23208 -12379 -42950 -1 109490

-0.1 -11.1 -2.3 -3.9 0.0 0.0 39.9

-0.7 -21.6 -3.1 -6.4 -9.2 0.0 55.9

-1.8 -27.6 -4.1 -2.8 -24.2 0.0 55.0

23.0 41.2 16.9 13.7 4.9

14.8 40.4 23.3 15.3 6.0

11.4 37.6 24.8 14.6 11.3

8.9 36.2 26.6 11.7 16.4

10.0 34.4 27.2 8.5 19.5

-1.4 -0.8 -1.0 0.0 3.2

-2.4 -0.9 -1.6 -1.1 6.0

-3.6 -0.8 -0.3 -2.5 7.2

-11.0 -2.2 -3.8 0.1 40.0

-21.0 -2.4 -5.7 -8.5 57.1

-26.2 -2.3 -1.0 -22.8 57.9

2138940 720059 259810 1159070

2576502 863760 343478 1369264

3042512 897389 608316 1536806

3427902 729447 846996 1851459

3662550 521845 1022405 2118301

-40238 0 97501 -137739

-56840 -73514 194972 -178298

-72895 -166474 236338 -142759

-1.3 0.0 19.1 -8.2

-1.6 -9.2 29.9 -8.8

-2.0 -24.2 30.1 -6.3

282186 184170 43718 41697 9827 2774 0

319336 158097 38588 99188 20524 2939 0

340138 135730 29412 128445 34335 12216 0

359581 103925 21283 142324 74339 17710 0

393375 124180 18550 136772 91983 21890 0

-15842 -20625 712 -12490 8029 8532 0

-17644 -38880 325 -21529 29338 13102 0

-12187 -60006 1077 -3063 33175 16630 0

-4.5 -13.2 2.5 -8.9 30.5 231.5

-4.7 -27.2 1.5 -13.1 65.2 284.4

-3.0 -32.6 6.2 -2.2 56.4 316.1

704402 595036 2 13085 96279

725664 665476 604 8717 50868

733976 662916 24662 8327 38071

740091 656343 42360 7652 33737

705307 620068 50512 6581 28147

-5973 -15170 9137 1591 -1530

-2761 -18844 14166 2191 -274

-4514 -23544 17991 934 105

-0.8 -2.2 58.9 23.6 -3.9

-0.4 -2.8 50.2 40.1 -0.8

-0.6 -3.7 55.3 16.5 0.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67323

65636

61718

-1521

-1885

-2490

-2.2

-2.8

-3.9

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96624

97483

96394

-439

-314

-388

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

866453

970663

1089515

1157464

1165776

2780

2359

1851

0.3

0.2

0.2

272481 182306 90175 220020 121346 252606

284781 182967 101814 238404 137376 310102

309038 193209 115829 269854 161384 349238

325313 196862 128451 287829 176464 367858

327874 191410 136464 294015 183662 360225

2270 1695 575 733 -237 14

2255 1571 684 832 -753 26

1742 1157 585 901 -827 35

0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.0

79761 393325 173014 155929 36558 27865

35330 434547 226415 191711 50708 31953

27931 462383 241415 230610 58454 68722

24838 460794 259879 263280 63615 85058

21268 431522 265845 285130 69224 92787

-694 -10754 -3251 -2554 -1438 21469

-477 -16462 -5613 -3326 -1141 29379

-343 -22333 -5255 -3966 233 33515

-2.4 -2.3 -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 45.4

-1.9 -3.4 -2.1 -1.2 -1.8 52.8

-1.6 -4.9 -1.9 -1.4 0.3 56.5

3068.4 1021.1 127.2 545.2 419.7 220.7 734.5

3127.0 1014.7 127.0 471.6 401.5 207.4 904.8

3124.1 950.1 101.8 458.5 424.2 224.3 965.2

3019.8 829.0 92.7 457.7 432.2 228.0 980.2

2975.5 888.2 78.8 431.6 422.7 217.0 937.0

-166.7 -113.6 -10.9 -17.3 -3.0 -1.4 -20.6

-281.2 -207.5 -10.0 -23.0 -2.6 -5.3 -32.8

-335.5 -244.4 -10.7 -19.6 -2.5 -15.6 -42.8

-5.1 -10.7 -9.6 -3.6 -0.7 -0.6 -2.1

-8.5 -20.0 -9.8 -4.8 -0.6 -2.3 -3.2

-10.1 -21.6 -11.9 -4.3 -0.6 -6.7 -4.4

100.0

101.9

101.8

98.4

97.0

-5.4

-9.2

-10.9

-5.1

-8.5

-10.1

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

84

EU15: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749 6981.9 189.1 3.61 5848 2.32 8.39 439.5 47.5

378.062 8572.2 170.0 3.85 6815 2.15 8.27 364.8 49.5

390.652 10391.5 152.6 4.06 7788 1.97 8.00 300.6 53.9

397.458 12835.7 125.6 4.06 8625 1.87 7.60 235.3 61.5

398.737 14948.8 105.6 3.96 9185 1.88 7.46 199.0 62.5

0.000 0.0 -0.1 0.00 -103 -0.10 -0.43 -16.0 -2.7

0.000 0.0 -0.9 -0.03 -143 -0.16 -0.71 -21.9 -3.9

0.000 0.0 -2.0 -0.07 -183 -0.17 -0.84 -22.4 -4.3

0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -5.0 -5.1 -5.1 -4.8

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.6 -7.8 -8.5 -8.5 -5.9

0.0 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.0 -8.5 -10.1 -10.1 -6.5

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

90.9 88.8 88.7 100.0

86.0 83.3 82.8 92.9

73.9 72.7 72.1 79.2

64.5 64.1 63.9 66.6

0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0

0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.0

0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.39 2.22 2.00 1.91 1.82 2.91

0.27 2.05 1.66 1.68 1.51 2.92

0.22 1.90 1.48 1.57 1.39 2.76

0.17 1.81 1.41 1.50 1.29 2.66

0.17 1.72 1.32 1.44 1.18 2.60

-0.03 -0.04 -0.07 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.01 -0.02 -0.09

-0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.01 -0.08 -0.12

-11.0 -2.2 -4.3 -1.0 -0.5 -2.1

-19.9 -3.1 -5.4 -0.9 -1.9 -3.2

-21.3 -4.0 -4.9 -0.9 -6.3 -4.4

588083 131758 90794 12769 176 352586 88543 144882 125804 67470 13407 0 1022

746156 127644 100717 104630 1645 411521 120148 113312 217027 57867 19991 0 3323

879789 102603 103906 183775 20846 468660 176102 87886 264676 37429 73975 0 4693

1000621 63901 105719 241875 44958 544168 198030 107457 304250 31199 95617 0 5644

21986 0 3603 28497 0 -10114 -4551 -3209 -10925 -1113 3166 0 1966

51698 -3596 2638 62443 16134 -25922 553 -29263 -24947 -4300 29412 0 3176

71067 -20767 1323 75066 35131 -19686 4016 -46728 -11129 1783 32388 0 4001

3.0 0.0 3.7 37.4 0.0 -2.4 -3.6 -2.8 -4.8 -1.9 18.8

6.2 -3.4 2.6 51.5 342.4 -5.2 0.3 -25.0 -8.6 -10.3 66.0

7.6 -24.5 1.3 45.0 357.5 -3.5 2.1 -30.3 -3.5 6.1 51.2

145.0

209.3

243.5

36.9 50.0 13.4 49.4 33.5 15.9

38.9 46.5 17.3 53.7 29.5 24.2

44.3 44.5 21.0 57.3 21.3 36.0

46.3 41.8 22.5 56.0 14.2 41.7

-1.6 -2.0 0.6 5.2 0.4 4.8

-2.0 -3.6 0.5 9.4 -1.8 11.2

-1.6 -4.1 0.8 8.3 -4.2 12.4

-4.0 -4.2 3.7 10.7 1.3 24.7

-4.3 -7.4 2.5 19.7 -7.6 45.1

-3.4 -8.9 3.8 17.3 -22.7 42.4

4997.7 401.8 3928.0 351.3 283.6 33.0

5831.6 422.5 4546.2 395.4 428.4 39.1

6645.0 414.1 5175.1 427.8 583.2 44.8

7227.8 404.5 5612.6 455.1 706.9 48.7

-0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0

-0.9 0.1 0.7 -1.7 0.1 0.0

-1.0 0.1 0.9 -2.0 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4130.1 369.0 3265.7 309.8 157.3 28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16719

18127

-1.1

-2.2

-2.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1419.2 914.2 254.9 250.1

1825.6 1309.3 249.5 266.8

2142.9 1590.4 267.7 284.8

2491.0 1900.0 279.9 311.1

2775.8 2157.0 287.8 331.1

-0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.0

-0.4 0.3 -0.8 0.0

-0.4 0.5 -0.9 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

194

186

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

252606 6250 129911 75351 6970 27742 6383

310102 5860 146708 100615 7579 44025 5314

349238 5957 155194 123197 7099 52040 5751

367858 5358 152189 140518 5513 58135 6145

360225 4554 140756 145747 5103 57775 6290

14 1 12 13 -15 4 0

26 1 20 28 -31 8 1

35 1 21 34 -30 8 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

41.2 58.0

40.7 58.5

37.7 60.5

33.3 58.9

28.8 54.8

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

85

NMS: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

169598 140913 2614 6749 15481 3841 1116 2725 0 0 0

136955 103966 3079 6084 14818 9008 1355 7609 1 35 8

138643 84249 2359 5757 17254 29024 1723 23949 1073 316 1963

139829 56232 2120 5302 17587 58588 1859 50346 2542 769 3072

152204 53423 1834 4789 22036 70122 1950 59073 4049 1690 3361

11864 -2020 -1 -2 0 13887 261 10860 668 151 1948

13807 -14855 -10 -12 -3890 32574 199 27377 1479 468 3051

18834 9.4 11.0 14.1 -8157 -2.3 -20.9 -13.2 -18 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -11185 0.0 -18.1 -33.7 38195 91.7 125.2 119.6 83 17.9 12.0 4.5 32600 83.0 119.2 123.1 1014 164.8 139.2 33.4 1162 91.3 155.0 220.1 3336 12579.4 14536.1 13491.4

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

68016 -14214 51224 43747 7477 31158 -152

59470 -15836 45604 41220 4384 31202 -1500

90241 -6770 54783 45601 9182 43891 -1663

121287 3082 63646 53179 10467 56223 -1663

132285 4016 69217 57979 11238 61813 -2760

-9610 -3977 -2156 -1924 -232 -3400 -77

-15503 -1835 -2656 -2364 -292 -11001 -11

-22439 -8950 -3815 -3371 -445 -9673 -1

-9.6 142.4 -3.8 -4.0 -2.5 -7.2 4.8

-11.3 -37.3 -4.0 -4.3 -2.7 -16.4 0.7

-14.5 -69.0 -5.2 -5.5 -3.8 -13.5 0.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

236229 128332 51587 37140 15481 -152 3841

196904 90799 46785 36994 14818 -1500 9008

227742 77478 56001 49648 17254 -1663 29024

259843 59313 64493 61525 17587 -1663 58588

283132 57438 69694 66602 22036 -2760 70122

2255 -5997 -2157 -3402 0 -77 13887

-1696 -16690 -2666 -11013 -3890 -11 32574

-3605 -17108 -3834 -9673 -11185 -1 38195

1.0 -7.2 -3.7 -6.4 0.0 4.8 91.7

-0.6 -22.0 -4.0 -15.2 -18.1 0.7 125.2

-1.3 -22.9 -5.2 -12.7 -33.7 0.0 119.6

54.3 21.8 15.7 6.6 1.6

46.1 23.8 18.8 7.5 4.6

34.0 24.6 21.8 7.6 12.7

22.8 24.8 23.7 6.8 22.5

20.3 24.6 23.5 7.8 24.8

-3.0 -1.2 -1.7 -0.1 6.0

-6.2 -0.9 -4.1 -1.4 12.6

-5.7 -1.0 -3.1 -3.8 13.6

-8.1 -4.7 -7.3 -1.0 89.8

-21.5 -3.3 -14.6 -17.6 126.7

-22.0 -4.0 -11.6 -32.8 122.4

316734 59996 12978 243760

324333 57434 15771 251128

393984 66876 32535 294573

507217 68167 51342 387708

617583 85417 70420 461746

-6452 0 10806 -17259

-13816 -15079 19515 -18252

-13571 -43356 12763 17021

-1.6 0.0 49.7 -5.5

-2.7 -18.1 61.3 -4.5

-2.2 -33.7 22.1 3.8

73176 62206 5236 5360 374 0 0

66652 56391 3281 6292 687 0 0

76779 52944 2999 9434 9464 1939 0

85253 40181 2330 9592 30111 3040 0

89642 40637 2313 8242 35125 3324 0

519 -5651 65 -2458 6623 1939 0

-293 -15516 -23 -9287 21493 3040 0

5166 -15488 -9 -7171 24509 3324 0

0.7 -9.6 2.2 -20.7 233.2

-0.3 -27.9 -1.0 -49.2 249.4

6.1 -27.6 -0.4 -46.5 230.9

93232 47239 0 17949 28043

70786 44972 33 8544 17236

72289 48890 2226 8859 12315

80299 56447 4341 8306 11205

85756 61089 5644 9228 9795

-659 -1946 959 345 -16

-944 -2390 1530 -50 -34

-1487 -3402 1789 141 -16

-0.9 -3.8 75.7 4.0 -0.1

-1.2 -4.1 54.4 -0.6 -0.3

-1.7 -5.3 46.4 1.6 -0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12373

13324

13637

-280

-321

-289

-2.2

-2.4

-2.1

10089

10135

10734

13370

15333

-51

-33

-50

-0.5

-0.2

-0.3

155460

124696

151512

183154

206599

241

-246

72

0.2

-0.1

0.0

68606 34503 34103 40986 25276 20592

45281 28649 16632 34898 21599 22917

50002 29451 20551 43016 26581 31913

59658 33272 26386 51806 34010 37680

65799 34864 30936 58265 40429 42107

350 206 144 172 -284 3

313 170 143 63 -628 7

367 185 182 93 -399 10

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 -1.1 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 -1.8 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 -1.0 0.0

44176 34795 27229 20539 26534 2188

21303 33764 25471 19641 18005 6512

16715 43111 34391 25601 19935 11759

13922 50910 44152 35280 22219 16672

12197 55473 49724 43905 25652 19648

138 -1094 -118 -546 -351 2211

-184 -1730 -82 -1031 -716 3497

-215 -2509 -573 -1042 -682 5094

0.8 -2.5 -0.3 -2.1 -1.7 23.2

-1.3 -3.3 -0.2 -2.8 -3.1 26.5

-1.7 -4.3 -1.1 -2.3 -2.6 35.0

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

707.7 341.5 14.3 153.7 86.4 53.5 58.2

547.1 280.2 17.9 96.1 50.6 37.2 65.1

552.9 265.0 9.3 101.2 54.9 35.7 86.7

527.8 204.9 9.4 112.9 60.0 41.6 99.0

542.7 201.8 8.1 115.7 61.2 46.9 108.9

-38.1 -33.2 -1.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -2.1

-99.7 -91.7 -1.8 -1.6 -0.1 -0.9 -3.5

-101.3 -89.5 -2.1 -2.9 -0.3 -2.4 -4.2

-6.5 -11.1 -16.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.2 -2.4

-15.9 -30.9 -16.3 -1.4 -0.1 -2.2 -3.4

-15.7 -30.7 -20.2 -2.4 -0.5 -4.8 -3.7

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

78.1

74.6

76.7

-5.4

-14.1

-14.3

-6.5

-15.9

-15.7

Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other

Source: PRIMES

86

NMS: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039 312.8 755.2 3.15 4221 3.00 9.43 2262.2 28.7

74.853 374.8 525.3 2.63 4333 2.78 7.31 1459.6 30.1

73.401 555.3 410.1 3.10 5368 2.43 7.53 995.6 39.4

71.813 820.6 316.7 3.62 7063 2.03 7.35 643.2 46.4

70.628 1102.7 256.8 4.01 8744 1.92 7.68 492.2 46.5

0.000 0.0 4.1 0.03 -88 -0.19 -0.52 -68.7 -4.6

0.000 0.0 -2.1 -0.02 -192 -0.37 -1.39 -121.5 -5.6

0.000 0.0 -3.3 -0.05 -192 -0.33 -1.43 -91.9 -7.2

0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.6 -7.4 -6.5 -6.5 -10.5

0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -2.7 -15.3 -15.9 -15.9 -10.8

0.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 -2.2 -14.7 -15.7 -15.7 -13.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

52.9 70.0 65.9 92.9

35.5 57.3 54.5 87.3

28.4 46.2 46.4 69.8

24.1 38.4 39.7 58.0

0.2 0.2 -0.6 0.0

0.1 0.1 -0.9 0.0

0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.0

0.7 0.4 -1.1 0.0

0.5 0.1 -1.8 0.0

0.6 0.2 -1.0 0.0

0.50 2.26 2.24 2.11 2.12 2.83

0.46 2.00 2.12 1.45 1.72 2.84

0.36 1.84 2.02 1.28 1.34 2.72

0.23 1.71 1.89 1.16 1.22 2.63

0.19 1.61 1.76 1.05 1.16 2.59

-0.05 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.07

-0.10 -0.03 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.09

-0.08 -0.05 -0.05 -0.01 -0.05 -0.10

-11.2 -1.2 -0.7 -1.2 -0.1 -2.4

-30.0 -1.8 -1.9 -0.2 -0.4 -3.4

-30.1 -2.9 -3.0 -0.6 -3.9 -3.7

73667 9324 6374 16 0 57953 24415 43996 6071 6832 1055 0 0

86911 8786 7385 5983 13 64744 25486 39035 11451 7210 6619 0 429

118644 8786 7749 13486 138 88485 31879 27129 22837 5154 32692 0 672

169152 11024 8023 21988 537 127579 53427 41536 36940 4554 43813 0 735

573 0 565 3723 0 -3715 -686 -981 -6035 141 2730 0 429

4153 -1952 399 7194 0 -1488 -1534 -12528 -8749 -1047 20163 0 672

2413 -5524 218 5867 0 1852 -558 -15514 -7814 -996 25441 0 735

0.7 0.0 8.3 164.8 0.0 -5.4 -2.6 -2.5 -34.5 2.0 70.2

3.6 -18.2 5.4 114.3 0.0 -1.7 -4.6 -31.6 -27.7 -16.9 160.9

1.4 -33.4 2.8 36.4 0.0 1.5 -1.0 -27.2 -17.5 -17.9 138.5

32.4 50.3 23.5 23.3 17.7 5.6

33.0 51.7 29.0 35.1 17.0 18.1

39.1 48.8 30.2 56.7 13.4 43.3

44.3 41.7 40.5 57.2 13.8 43.3

-2.2 -1.2 2.3 10.3 0.3 10.1

-1.7 -3.1 -0.8 26.4 -2.5 28.9

-1.0 -1.5 0.6 19.3 -6.6 25.9

-6.2 -2.3 8.5 41.7 1.6 124.7

-4.2 -6.1 -2.7 87.0 -15.9 201.4

-2.2 -3.5 1.5 51.1 -32.2 148.6

468.6 78.3 325.1 51.4 13.3 0.6

617.3 72.6 470.8 50.1 23.2 0.7

756.0 66.6 606.5 48.7 33.6 0.7

901.3 62.3 747.0 48.3 42.9 0.8

-0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

-0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0

-0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

510.7 135.1 263.6 102.1 9.0 0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8410

10527

12761

-0.7

-2.0

-1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

334.6 119.9 206.8 7.9

305.9 177.1 124.7 4.2

438.9 301.0 133.6 4.3

557.0 412.2 140.3 4.5

655.5 501.2 149.7 4.6

-0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.0

-0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.0

-0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

-0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1

0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

679

594

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

-0.1

0.0

20592 1591 8290 7093 2096 1190 331

22917 1159 11641 7453 1317 1294 54

31913 1064 14996 12467 1192 2138 57

37680 917 16734 16346 970 2651 61

42107 767 19120 18682 881 2593 63

3 0 1 4 -2 0 0

7 0 3 6 -3 1 0

10 0 4 10 -4 1 0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.1

23.9 25.0

31.4 26.7

30.3 30.1

27.3 30.6

25.3 29.5

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

Source: PRIMES

87

EU27: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

928078 364706 128402 162645 200702 71623 25013 43297 67 145 3101

937145 214324 170011 207644 243761 101405 30483 65264 1913 417 3329

935300 157536 123026 183634 253537 217567 34190 142202 23134 2732 15309

826852 112895 58966 109165 212326 333500 36451 225410 41061 8247 22331

814403 117492 49483 89976 166512 390941 37554 255446 54080 16981 26880

57113 -8340 -399 -1270 0 67122 2473 45048 7299 1218 11083

75783 -30094 -205 -361 -23366 129809 2075 90588 14660 5374 17112

81758 -14032 -171 226 -54796 150531 1143 100080 15949 12360 20999

6.5 -5.0 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 44.6 7.8 46.4 46.1 80.4 262.3

10.1 -21.0 -0.3 -0.3 -9.9 63.7 6.0 67.2 55.5 187.1 327.9

11.2 -10.7 -0.3 0.3 -24.8 62.6 3.1 64.4 41.8 267.5 357.0

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

749474 81418 529724 503451 26273 135011 3321

817569 98469 525771 507009 18762 191643 1687

992917 117299 596188 561357 34831 277891 1539

1182401 111344 664628 637342 27287 404854 1574

1201120 121766 644839 625348 19491 432775 1740

-55627 -20678 -16041 -16067 26 -18831 -77

-89414 -26195 -21814 -20247 -1567 -41393 -12

-114209 -62907 -27538 -25823 -1715 -23763 -1

-5.3 -15.0 -2.6 -2.8 0.1 -6.3 -4.8

-7.0 -19.0 -3.2 -3.1 -5.4 -9.3 -0.7

-8.7 -34.1 -4.1 -4.0 -8.1 -5.2 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1645474 450795 624250 294782 200702 3321 71623

1709133 320708 648970 392603 243761 1687 101405

1879937 274835 670933 461525 253537 1539 217567

1956215 224239 670556 514019 212326 1574 333500

1959892 239258 638692 522750 166512 1740 390941

1485 -29018 -16440 -20101 0 -77 67122

-13631 -56289 -22020 -41754 -23366 -12 129809

-32451 -76939 -27709 -23537 -54796 -1 150531

0.1 -9.5 -2.4 -4.2 0.0 -4.8 44.6

-0.7 -20.1 -3.2 -7.5 -9.9 -0.7 63.7

-1.6 -24.3 -4.2 -4.3 -24.8 -0.1 62.6

27.4 37.9 17.9 12.2 4.4

18.8 38.0 23.0 14.3 5.9

14.6 35.7 24.6 13.5 11.6

11.5 34.3 26.3 10.9 17.0

12.2 32.6 26.7 8.5 19.9

-1.6 -0.9 -1.1 0.0 3.6

-2.8 -0.9 -1.9 -1.1 6.7

-3.7 -0.9 -0.7 -2.6 7.9

-9.6 -2.5 -4.2 -0.1 44.5

-19.5 -2.5 -6.9 -9.3 64.9

-23.1 -2.6 -2.7 -23.5 65.3

2561205 794718 291642 1474844

2993398 944823 376697 1671878

3553069 982718 668133 1902219

4089622 822979 930326 2336317

4473993 645398 1128025 2700570

-49097 0 113631 -162728

-74086 -90567 219323 -202842

-90424 -212390 252596 -130629

-1.4 0.0 20.5 -7.9

-1.8 -9.9 30.8 -8.0

-2.0 -24.8 28.9 -4.6

384763 261342 56108 54301 10237 2774 0

402753 225135 43691 109769 21219 2939 0

436397 201431 34466 141265 44508 14726 0

469820 161264 24526 157137 105255 21638 0

509102 184839 21189 148944 127947 26183 0

-16032 -26661 687 -16031 14932 11041 0

-18192 -54284 287 -32087 50860 17031 0

-6097 -74398 1054 -11359 57684 20922 0

-3.5 -11.7 2.0 -10.2 50.5 299.7

-3.7 -25.2 1.2 -17.0 93.5 369.6

-1.2 -28.7 5.2 -7.1 82.1 397.7

840016 673728 2 38458 127829

818581 727122 637 19291 71530

831990 733686 27027 17409 53868

850965 739456 47209 16031 48269

825854 711494 57697 15867 40796

-7000 -17549 10124 1974 -1549

-3994 -21696 15885 2115 -298

-6284 -27734 20326 1022 102

-0.8 -2.3 59.9 12.8 -2.8

-0.5 -2.9 50.7 15.2 -0.6

-0.8 -3.8 54.4 6.9 0.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86749

87064

84231

-1837

-2290

-2835

-2.1

-2.6

-3.3

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

109883

113807

115137

-503

-357

-452

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1284408

1399634

1445418

3248

2446

2154

0.3

0.2

0.1

372041 239834 132206 267394 151680 280091

342654 220752 121902 283857 161545 338258

376776 235176 141600 324927 191377 391327

409198 246608 162590 354583 215345 420508

424069 246709 177360 368874 230459 422017

2705 1974 732 1047 -524 19

2678 1837 840 1133 -1401 35

2133 1377 756 1215 -1243 49

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.6 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.0

128087 441141 219636 183815 67635 30892

58191 476894 259889 216343 73194 41802

46737 519494 287305 263327 82108 85437

40908 530753 320480 308880 90733 107880

35390 509660 336602 342571 101482 119713

-583 -11974 -3417 -3259 -1815 24296

-703 -18529 -5920 -4602 -1796 33995

-1100 -25466 -6277 -5322 249 40070

-1.2 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 39.7

-1.7 -3.4 -1.8 -1.5 -1.9 46.0

-3.0 -4.8 -1.8 -1.5 0.2 50.3

4009.9 1483.5 151.1 761.0 516.6 285.7 812.0

3800.2 1359.8 154.0 594.1 459.7 247.7 984.9

3833.6 1282.8 121.6 594.2 490.0 263.8 1081.1

3746.2 1119.6 109.8 613.5 506.7 274.8 1121.8

3740.1 1181.9 91.4 596.0 500.5 270.4 1100.0

-209.3 -151.3 -12.1 -17.5 -3.8 -1.8 -22.8

-385.4 -302.0 -11.9 -25.4 -3.0 -6.4 -36.7

-440.4 -332.6 -12.5 -25.5 -3.1 -18.4 -48.3

-5.2 -10.5 -9.1 -2.9 -0.8 -0.7 -2.1

-9.3 -21.2 -9.8 -4.0 -0.6 -2.3 -3.2

-10.5 -22.0 -12.0 -4.1 -0.6 -6.4 -4.2

100.0

94.8

95.6

93.4

93.3

-5.2

-9.6

-11.0

-5.2

-9.3

-10.5

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

88

EU27: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712 7358.9 223.6 3.48 5418 2.44 8.48 544.9 44.6

483.520 9001.0 189.9 3.53 6191 2.22 7.86 422.2 46.7

492.838 11044.1 170.2 3.81 7209 2.04 7.78 347.1 51.5

496.408 13825.4 141.5 3.94 8238 1.92 7.55 271.0 58.8

494.784 16315.6 120.1 3.96 9042 1.91 7.56 229.2 59.6

0.000 0.0 0.1 0.00 -100 -0.11 -0.42 -18.9 -2.9

0.000 0.0 -1.0 -0.03 -149 -0.18 -0.78 -27.9 -4.0

0.000 0.0 -2.0 -0.07 -183 -0.19 -0.89 -27.0 -4.6

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -1.4 -5.3 -5.2 -5.2 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.8 -8.7 -9.3 -9.3 -6.4

0.0 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -9.1 -10.5 -10.5 -7.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

80.2 87.2 83.5 98.7

75.0 81.6 78.0 93.1

65.1 71.8 69.2 79.9

57.5 63.5 62.3 68.0

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.2 -0.5 0.0

0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.0

0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0

0.5 0.3 -0.5 0.0

0.42 2.22 2.05 1.93 1.88 2.90

0.30 2.03 1.73 1.62 1.53 2.91

0.24 1.89 1.58 1.51 1.38 2.76

0.18 1.80 1.50 1.43 1.28 2.67

0.18 1.71 1.41 1.36 1.17 2.61

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.05 -0.05 -0.07 -0.01 -0.02 -0.09

-0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.01 -0.07 -0.11

-10.8 -2.1 -3.6 -1.1 -0.4 -2.1

-21.0 -2.9 -4.6 -0.9 -1.6 -3.2

-21.7 -3.9 -4.6 -0.9 -5.9 -4.2

697174 145542 105185 12786 176 433485 120284 203503 135927 78309 14723 0 1022

872171 139130 117293 111790 1661 502296 157209 166008 236060 68914 27437 0 3878

1041208 114962 121543 200613 20999 583092 224393 131224 294437 43788 108081 0 5562

1231586 79812 124173 267749 45567 714286 277830 170637 357764 36101 143191 0 6594

22849 0 4917 32984 0 -15053 -6432 -4435 -18309 -972 6141 0 2522

57733 -5807 3661 71657 16134 -27912 -1323 -40811 -35260 -5363 49478 0 4045

75268 -26625 2003 83245 35131 -18487 3655 -60722 -21534 770 58049 0 4951

2.7 0.0 4.4 41.9 0.0 -2.9 -3.9 -2.6 -7.2 -1.4 28.8

5.9 -4.8 3.1 55.6 331.6 -4.6 -0.6 -23.7 -10.7 -10.9 84.4

6.5 -25.0 1.6 45.1 336.7 -2.5 1.3 -26.2 -5.7 2.2 68.2

185.9

266.6

301.3

35.7 49.0 14.9 46.4 31.6 14.9

37.5 46.5 19.2 51.2 27.7 23.6

42.8 44.8 23.0 56.5 20.1 36.4

45.6 41.5 26.5 55.5 14.4 41.0

-1.8 -1.9 0.6 5.8 0.4 5.4

-2.0 -3.5 0.3 11.3 -1.8 13.1

-1.6 -3.6 0.7 9.5 -4.4 13.9

-4.5 -3.9 3.3 12.8 1.4 29.9

-4.4 -7.2 1.1 25.0 -8.3 56.4

-3.5 -8.0 2.8 20.7 -23.2 51.1

5568.5 502.3 4316.4 417.8 298.4 33.6

6595.5 517.0 5126.8 456.8 455.1 39.8

7621.4 504.4 5954.7 491.7 625.1 45.5

8423.8 494.2 6588.8 523.5 767.7 49.6

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0

-1.0 0.1 0.8 -2.0 0.1 0.0

-1.1 0.1 1.0 -2.3 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4769.3 554.1 3567.1 450.2 168.5 29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13383

15353

17025

-1.0

-2.1

-2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1861.5 1075.1 524.7 261.8

2177.1 1507.0 396.1 274.0

2684.4 1959.3 425.4 299.6

3201.2 2425.9 445.0 330.2

3645.1 2825.1 464.8 355.2

-0.4 0.3 -0.8 0.0

-0.7 0.6 -1.3 0.0

-0.6 0.8 -1.5 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

232

223

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

280091 8685 139578 85770 9564 29449 7044

338258 7514 160719 109568 9423 45553 5481

391327 7473 173948 140466 8595 54631 6215

420508 6706 174111 164497 6755 61701 6738

422017 5744 166328 174728 6268 61902 7046

19 1 13 18 -17 4 1

35 1 23 37 -35 9 1

49 1 25 48 -35 9 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0

38.9 50.8

39.8 53.6

36.9 55.2

32.6 53.8

28.4 50.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

89

EU28: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

961237 377116 132112 162820 200702 88487 27003 57710 67 173 3534

963855 227617 172757 208170 243761 111549 33138 71804 1916 679 4012

967269 166762 126270 184635 253537 236066 37756 149009 23566 3924 21811

874771 125984 62348 110520 212326 363593 40234 234556 42283 15058 31462

881860 132380 53222 91396 169981 434880 41703 266194 55761 33748 37474

62969 -9648 -399 -1345 0 74361 2891 45842 7576 1615 16437

89029 -30658 -205 -361 -23366 143619 2329 92296 15142 9009 24844

103139 -14032 -171 226 -54795 171911 1143 101983 16331 22508 29948

7.0 -5.5 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 46.0 8.3 44.4 47.4 70.0 305.8

11.3 -19.6 -0.3 -0.3 -9.9 65.3 6.1 64.9 55.8 148.9 375.4

13.2 -9.6 -0.3 0.2 -24.4 65.4 2.8 62.1 41.4 200.2 397.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

776740 85626 550163 523502 26661 137693 3259

868442 107717 555056 528467 26589 203694 1975

1060727 129317 628807 591672 37136 301380 1223

1283941 127115 715742 684953 30789 439742 1342

1343318 140115 715681 691396 24284 486093 1429

-58407 -21342 -16407 -16409 2 -20581 -77

-95275 -26257 -22519 -20907 -1613 -46487 -12

-125483 -65677 -28619 -26834 -1785 -31186 -1

-5.2 -14.2 -2.5 -2.7 0.0 -6.4 -5.9

-6.9 -17.1 -3.1 -3.0 -5.0 -9.6 -0.9

-8.5 -31.9 -3.8 -3.7 -6.8 -6.0 -0.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1704962 467717 647159 297637 200702 3259 88487

1786487 343986 679975 405241 243761 1975 111549

1979216 296079 706297 486015 253537 1223 236066

2105034 253099 724412 550262 212326 1342 363593

2168768 272495 712493 577490 169981 1429 434880

4562 -30990 -16806 -21926 0 -77 74361

-6247 -56915 -22725 -46848 -23366 -12 143619

-22344 -79709 -28789 -30960 -54795 -1 171911

0.2 -9.5 -2.3 -4.3 0.0 -5.9 46.0

-0.3 -18.4 -3.0 -7.8 -9.9 -0.9 65.3

-1.0 -22.6 -3.9 -5.1 -24.4 -0.1 65.4

27.4 38.0 17.5 11.8 5.2

19.3 38.1 22.7 13.6 6.2

15.0 35.7 24.6 12.8 11.9

12.0 34.4 26.1 10.1 17.3

12.6 32.9 26.6 7.8 20.1

-1.6 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 3.7

-2.7 -1.0 -2.1 -1.1 6.9

-3.5 -1.0 -1.1 -2.4 8.1

-9.7 -2.5 -4.5 -0.2 45.6

-18.1 -2.8 -7.6 -9.6 65.8

-21.8 -2.9 -4.1 -23.6 67.1

2618738 794718 314786 1509233

3118298 944823 407604 1765871

3724799 982718 714611 2027470

4347247 822979 988556 2535711

4870289 658846 1214596 2996847

-50304 0 121709 -172013

-75276 -90567 227875 -212584

-93608 -212386 275614 -156835

-1.3 0.0 20.5 -7.8

-1.7 -9.9 30.0 -7.7

-1.9 -24.4 29.4 -5.0

393649 266482 57294 56793 10237 2842 0

424378 235098 46624 118348 21304 3004 0

466253 209663 36443 154570 45317 20261 0

515447 179995 25633 172980 107294 29544 0

567281 210372 22075 169308 130128 35399 0

-13905 -28560 720 -17692 15243 16383 0

-12085 -54630 298 -34219 51723 24743 0

-1619 -76634 1030 -14090 58223 29852 0

-2.9 -12.0 2.0 -10.3 50.7 422.5

-2.3 -23.3 1.2 -16.5 93.1 515.4

-0.3 -26.7 4.9 -7.7 81.0 538.2

867592 696742 2 38458 132391

846345 750941 637 19291 75474

868920 767244 27139 17447 57091

905392 790448 47634 16157 51153

899814 781281 59089 16080 43363

-7330 -17891 10146 1974 -1559

-4508 -22356 16035 2115 -302

-6827 -28745 20793 1018 108

-0.8 -2.3 59.7 12.8 -2.7

-0.5 -2.8 50.7 15.1 -0.6

-0.8 -3.5 54.3 6.8 0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

80396

88538

89655

91006

89180

-1911

-2308

-2910

-2.1

-2.5

-3.2

101612

112692

113260

117776

119658

-517

-374

-470

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1358674

1514358

1614268

3614

3076

5746

0.3

0.2

0.4

384219 245670 138549 281949 154275 289441

363322 228215 135107 300854 166339 350426

403978 243511 160466 344709 200079 409907

450023 257071 192952 383561 229150 451624

485949 260126 225823 409500 251287 467532

2731 1999 732 1392 -527 19

2711 1866 844 1752 -1423 36

2120 1397 723 1799 1776 52

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.0

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.0

136126 458929 220792 187680 67875 38483

68674 499706 264489 224587 74443 49041

58111 549347 299086 275565 82996 93569

49590 579619 341449 328350 92413 122937

41891 578347 371081 372714 105692 144543

-655 -12271 -3628 -3303 -1711 25181

-976 -19228 -8860 -4696 -1617 38453

-1592 -26506 -10939 -5526 444 49866

-1.1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 36.8

-1.9 -3.2 -2.5 -1.4 -1.7 45.5

-3.7 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 0.4 52.7

4136.3 1515.0 155.8 796.2 538.0 291.5 839.9

3998.9 1431.1 159.9 650.1 481.6 255.8 1020.5

4069.2 1354.6 123.3 666.1 515.4 274.7 1135.0

4092.6 1237.3 110.4 708.8 545.2 280.1 1210.8

4204.0 1336.8 91.9 724.3 554.1 269.2 1227.8

-222.7 -162.8 -12.3 -18.1 -3.9 -2.8 -22.8

-402.1 -308.5 -11.9 -26.7 -2.9 -15.0 -37.0

-471.9 -348.0 -12.5 -27.7 -3.1 -31.2 -49.4

-5.2 -10.7 -9.0 -2.6 -0.8 -1.0 -2.0

-8.9 -20.0 -9.8 -3.6 -0.5 -5.1 -3.0

-10.1 -20.7 -12.0 -3.7 -0.6 -10.4 -3.9

100.0

96.7

98.4

98.9

101.6

-5.4

-9.7

-11.4

-5.2

-8.9

-10.1

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

90

EU28: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913 7511.4 227.0 3.22 4951 2.43 7.82 550.7 44.6

550.981 9217.8 193.8 3.24 5660 2.24 7.26 433.8 47.5

569.992 11370.5 174.1 3.47 6535 2.06 7.14 357.9 52.3

582.152 14408.7 146.1 3.62 7468 1.94 7.03 284.0 59.5

587.546 17374.7 124.8 3.69 8289 1.94 7.16 242.0 60.4

0.000 0.0 0.4 0.01 -88 -0.12 -0.39 -19.6 -3.0

0.000 0.0 -0.4 -0.01 -129 -0.18 -0.69 -27.9 -4.2

0.000 0.0 -1.3 -0.04 -159 -0.20 -0.80 -27.2 -5.0

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.3 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -5.4

0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -8.7 -8.9 -8.9 -6.6

0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.9 -9.2 -10.1 -10.1 -7.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.8 87.3 84.3 98.7

76.5 81.4 79.6 93.6

67.0 72.1 71.0 81.3

59.6 64.0 64.2 69.8

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0

0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.5 -0.6 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0

0.42 2.22 2.07 1.91 1.89 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.79 1.60 1.54 2.91

0.24 1.91 1.65 1.50 1.37 2.77

0.19 1.81 1.58 1.42 1.22 2.68

0.19 1.72 1.49 1.35 1.07 2.63

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.06

-0.05 -0.06 -0.07 -0.01 -0.06 -0.08

-0.05 -0.08 -0.06 -0.01 -0.13 -0.11

-11.0 -2.1 -3.3 -1.2 -0.8 -2.0

-19.7 -3.1 -4.2 -1.0 -4.5 -3.0

-20.4 -4.2 -4.1 -1.0 -11.0 -3.9

725459 145542 116592 12806 176 450343 122684 210547 143140 80801 14814 0 1040

914599 139130 129405 113485 1661 530918 162255 176099 249170 72439 28096 0 5114

1098215 114962 134163 207823 21030 620238 233719 141878 315070 45838 110130 0 7323

1332444 81526 137822 279662 57835 775599 295932 192582 388494 38023 147851 0 8649

25777 0 5472 34065 0 -13760 -6308 -4435 -18439 -1016 6439 0 3690

60130 -5807 3999 75542 16134 -29738 -2021 -42812 -37728 -5407 50472 0 5738

87318 -26624 2003 87408 47252 -22721 4071 -64921 -25923 726 60483 0 6913

2.9 0.0 4.4 42.9 0.0 -2.5 -3.7 -2.5 -6.9 -1.4 29.7

5.8 -4.8 3.1 57.1 329.5 -4.6 -0.9 -23.2 -10.7 -10.6 84.6

7.0 -24.6 1.5 45.5 446.5 -2.8 1.4 -25.2 -6.3 1.9 69.2

259.2

362.1

398.3

35.8 49.1 14.8 45.6 30.3 15.3

37.4 46.5 18.8 50.3 26.4 24.0

42.3 45.2 22.6 54.9 18.9 36.0

45.4 41.7 26.0 53.4 13.5 39.9

-2.0 -2.0 0.6 5.9 0.4 5.6

-2.5 -3.4 0.2 11.1 -1.7 12.8

-2.2 -3.8 0.7 9.5 -4.0 13.5

-5.1 -4.1 3.2 13.4 1.4 30.5

-5.6 -7.1 0.8 25.4 -8.4 55.5

-4.7 -8.3 2.8 21.5 -22.9 51.0

5752.9 589.7 4397.4 423.6 304.7 37.4

6896.7 618.6 5301.1 465.4 466.6 45.1

8263.8 625.6 6413.8 512.3 656.7 55.4

9493.3 606.4 7428.6 562.8 832.3 63.2

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0

-1.0 0.1 0.8 -2.1 0.1 0.0

-1.2 0.1 1.1 -2.5 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2 618.4 3601.6 456.6 170.7 33.9 9229

10441

12100

14195

16157

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1958.3 1159.5 532.6 266.3

2352.3 1668.6 405.9 277.8

2946.9 2204.6 437.3 305.0

3611.3 2809.8 463.5 338.0

4230.8 3374.4 491.1 365.3

-0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.0

-0.7 0.6 -1.4 0.0

-0.7 0.9 -1.6 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

261

255

259

251

244

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

289441 9634 140266 92511 9807 29928 7295

350426 8758 162549 116941 9691 46814 5673

409907 8911 177497 151636 8864 56516 6483

451624 8329 182358 181042 7048 65665 7182

467532 7120 181003 196769 6704 68311 7624

19 1 13 18 -18 4 1

36 1 23 38 -36 9 1

52 1 26 50 -36 10 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

38.5 51.8

39.3 52.8

36.3 54.1

31.8 52.3

27.7 48.4

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

91

EU30: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

1091087 377317 216359 186970 206883 103557 40003 59720 67 173 3595

1200143 228042 337714 253987 250675 129725 48250 74749 1919 703 4103

1210026 167296 255053 269995 260539 257144 53075 154186 24010 3973 21901

1150129 126262 186667 230516 219469 387214 56862 240852 42817 15126 31557

1106610 132681 135058 203512 175053 460306 58858 273389 56651 33844 37564

51697 -9648 -3153 -10979 0 75477 3132 46607 7664 1636 16437

90237 -30707 -205 -518 -23366 145033 2574 93486 15088 9039 24844

97192 -14034 -171 -5585 -56710 173691 1387 103479 16331 22546 29948

4.5 -5.5 -1.2 -3.9 0.0 41.5 6.3 43.3 46.9 70.0 300.8

8.5 -19.6 -0.1 -0.2 -9.6 59.9 4.7 63.4 54.4 148.5 370.1

9.6 -9.6 -0.1 -2.7 -24.5 60.6 2.4 60.9 40.5 199.5 393.2

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

695727 86632 490237 458354 31883 117149 1710

684878 108508 412700 384418 28282 163941 -272

876169 129975 522659 483305 39354 223717 -182

1070063 127523 613604 580836 32768 328919 17

1178705 140440 655147 629421 25726 383071 47

-47564 -21498 -14004 -14077 73 -11985 -77

-96565 -26386 -23072 -21325 -1747 -47095 -12

-120694 -65775 -29110 -27240 -1870 -25807 -1

-5.1 -14.2 -2.6 -2.8 0.2 -5.1 73.8

-8.3 -17.1 -3.6 -3.5 -5.1 -12.5 -41.5

-9.3 -31.9 -4.3 -4.1 -6.8 -6.3 -3.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1751588 468937 669257 301245 206883 1710 103557

1839144 345317 702393 411306 250675 -272 129725

2036357 297270 727873 493712 260539 -182 257144

2165220 253785 745300 559435 219469 17 387214

2227392 273121 732283 586583 175053 47 460306

4132 -31146 -17157 -22964 0 -77 75477

-6328 -57093 -23277 -47613 -23366 -12 145033

-23502 -79809 -29281 -31392 -56710 -1 173691

0.2 -9.5 -2.3 -4.4 0.0 73.8 41.5

-0.3 -18.4 -3.0 -7.8 -9.6 -41.5 59.9

-1.0 -22.6 -3.8 -5.1 -24.5 -3.0 60.6

26.8 38.2 17.2 11.8 5.9

18.8 38.2 22.4 13.6 7.1

14.6 35.7 24.2 12.8 12.6

11.7 34.4 25.8 10.1 17.9

12.3 32.9 26.3 7.9 20.7

-1.6 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 3.7

-2.6 -1.0 -2.1 -1.0 6.7

-3.4 -1.0 -1.1 -2.4 7.9

-9.7 -2.5 -4.6 -0.2 41.3

-18.1 -2.7 -7.6 -9.4 60.4

-21.8 -2.8 -4.1 -23.7 62.3

2794856 818651 465941 1510263

3323905 971593 583374 1768938

3940581 1009830 897928 2032824

4585987 850636 1188183 2547169

5122411 678486 1424565 3019360

-51007 0 125534 -176541

-76353 -90567 230110 -215896

-95226 -219801 278460 -153885

-1.3 0.0 16.3 -8.0

-1.6 -9.6 24.0 -7.8

-1.8 -24.5 24.3 -4.8

394358 266510 57394 56913 10698 2842 0

425676 235114 46636 118562 22359 3004 0

468124 209792 36620 154628 46823 20261 0

518323 180017 25719 173542 109500 29544 0

571940 210372 22131 170468 133569 35399 0

-14462 -28626 739 -18503 15546 16383 0

-12556 -54630 316 -34591 51606 24743 0

-1296 -76634 1021 -13584 58049 29852 0

-3.0 -12.0 2.1 -10.7 49.7 422.5

-2.4 -23.3 1.2 -16.6 89.1 515.4

-0.2 -26.7 4.8 -7.4 76.9 538.2

884427 713481 2 38512 132432

866713 771184 637 19379 75512

889325 786886 27572 17750 57117

926715 810040 48965 16542 51168

921179 800619 60674 16516 43370

-7627 -18306 10243 1995 -1559

-4392 -22770 16565 2124 -310

-6651 -29149 21361 1037 100

-0.9 -2.3 59.1 12.7 -2.7

-0.5 -2.7 51.1 14.7 -0.6

-0.7 -3.5 54.3 6.7 0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

83789

92950

94005

95487

92796

-2209

-2313

-3027

-2.3

-2.4

-3.2

103762

115166

115464

119912

121836

-523

-379

-476

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1402700

1561316

1661590

3679

3148

5817

0.3

0.2

0.4

394004 252212 141792 290806 160718 299860

375356 236839 138517 310280 172911 361964

416580 252471 164109 354996 208251 422873

463805 266705 197101 394429 238052 465030

500220 269874 230346 420381 260496 480492

2775 2035 740 1420 -535 20

2772 1911 861 1782 -1443 37

2191 1447 743 1824 1750 53

0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.0

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.0

137278 477192 222317 200044 68198 40359

69933 518412 266915 238509 75229 51512

59077 568442 303021 291064 84026 97070

50212 598534 345957 345976 93954 126684

42472 596131 375647 391529 107876 147935

-732 -12487 -3673 -3362 -1657 25590

-1119 -19774 -9221 -4786 -1542 39589

-1668 -26998 -11610 -5653 471 51276

-1.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.9 35.8

-2.2 -3.2 -2.6 -1.4 -1.6 45.5

-3.8 -4.3 -3.0 -1.4 0.4 53.0

4207.7 1515.7 163.4 807.4 551.3 300.2 869.6

4076.8 1431.7 170.4 663.2 493.5 264.5 1053.4

4149.8 1356.2 132.2 677.3 527.7 285.2 1171.2

4173.3 1239.4 119.4 720.7 556.8 290.6 1246.4

4280.6 1340.2 99.0 736.5 564.2 279.2 1261.6

-226.7 -165.0 -13.0 -18.8 -3.9 -2.9 -23.0

-406.2 -309.5 -12.0 -28.4 -2.9 -15.1 -38.2

-474.7 -347.3 -12.8 -29.6 -3.1 -31.3 -50.7

-5.2 -10.8 -9.0 -2.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9

-8.9 -20.0 -9.1 -3.8 -0.5 -4.9 -3.0

-10.0 -20.6 -11.4 -3.9 -0.5 -10.1 -3.9

100.0

96.9

98.6

99.2

101.7

-5.4

-9.7

-11.3

-5.2

-8.9

-10.0

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

92

EU30: 12% renewables share in 2010 case Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950 7877.3 222.4 3.24 5176 2.40 7.79 534.2 38.9

562.681 9665.6 190.3 3.27 5907 2.22 7.25 421.8 36.4

582.130 11898.8 171.1 3.50 6769 2.04 7.13 348.8 42.0

594.587 15057.8 143.8 3.64 7713 1.93 7.02 277.2 48.2

600.252 18137.4 122.8 3.71 8534 1.92 7.13 236.0 51.6

0.000 0.0 0.3 0.01 -88 -0.12 -0.39 -19.1 -2.4

0.000 0.0 -0.4 -0.01 -128 -0.18 -0.68 -27.0 -4.2

0.000 0.0 -1.3 -0.04 -159 -0.19 -0.79 -26.2 -4.7

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.3 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -5.3

0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -1.6 -8.6 -8.9 -8.9 -8.0

0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.8 -9.0 -10.0 -10.0 -8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.7 87.4 84.5 98.4

76.3 81.4 80.0 93.4

66.8 72.1 71.3 81.1

59.5 63.9 64.4 69.6

0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0

0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0

0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.0

0.6 0.5 -0.6 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0

0.40 2.21 2.05 1.90 1.87 2.90

0.29 2.03 1.77 1.59 1.53 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.63 1.49 1.37 2.77

0.18 1.80 1.55 1.41 1.22 2.68

0.18 1.71 1.47 1.34 1.07 2.63

-0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.05

-0.05 -0.06 -0.07 -0.01 -0.06 -0.08

-0.05 -0.08 -0.07 -0.01 -0.13 -0.11

-11.1 -2.1 -3.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.9

-19.8 -3.1 -4.4 -1.0 -4.4 -3.0

-20.3 -4.2 -4.3 -1.0 -10.7 -3.9

769539 148992 155831 12886 195 451636 123656 210703 143723 80968 15202 0 1040

964303 142580 171007 115597 1705 533414 163600 176193 250693 72594 28821 0 5114

1151342 118412 177662 210714 21140 623415 235590 141894 316730 45914 111554 0 7323

1388905 84003 181743 283979 58067 781114 299467 192582 390798 38088 150998 0 8649

26494 0 5791 34636 0 -13933 -6190 -4435 -18745 -1004 6560 0 3690

60103 -5807 4348 75696 16134 -30267 -1950 -42812 -38176 -5398 50381 0 5738

87346 -27572 2404 87755 47252 -22493 4218 -64921 -25536 730 60320 0 6913

2.8 0.0 3.5 42.8 0.0 -2.5 -3.6 -2.5 -7.0 -1.4 29.5

5.5 -4.7 2.5 56.1 322.3 -4.6 -0.8 -23.2 -10.8 -10.5 82.4

6.7 -24.7 1.3 44.7 436.9 -2.8 1.4 -25.2 -6.1 2.0 66.5

259.2

362.1

398.3

35.7 49.3 14.0 48.9 29.2 19.6

37.3 46.6 17.9 53.0 25.6 27.4

42.3 45.5 21.6 57.2 18.5 38.6

45.4 42.1 25.0 55.5 13.2 42.3

-2.0 -1.9 0.5 5.8 0.3 5.5

-2.5 -3.3 0.2 10.6 -1.6 12.3

-2.2 -3.7 0.7 8.9 -4.0 12.9

-5.1 -4.0 3.1 12.3 1.3 24.9

-5.6 -6.8 0.9 22.8 -8.1 46.5

-4.6 -8.0 2.8 19.2 -23.1 44.0

5925.5 596.9 4530.1 443.8 316.3 38.4

7097.8 626.8 5454.5 488.2 482.0 46.2

8487.0 634.4 6583.5 536.8 675.6 56.7

9728.5 615.4 7607.3 588.1 853.1 64.6

-0.5 0.0 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0

-1.1 0.1 0.9 -2.1 0.1 0.0

-1.2 0.1 1.1 -2.5 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5 625.6 3720.2 473.5 178.7 34.5 9320

10531

12193

14274

16207

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2026.8 1179.2 544.1 303.5

2447.9 1705.6 419.3 323.0

3059.5 2256.1 453.0 350.4

3742.9 2879.5 479.9 383.5

4376.3 3461.0 507.6 407.7

-0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.0

-0.7 0.6 -1.4 0.0

-0.7 0.9 -1.6 0.1

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0

257

253

257

249

241

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

299860 9802 145794 94266 10142 31627 8229

361964 8917 168062 119351 10079 49160 6394

422873 9088 183293 155005 9262 59006 7218

465030 8500 187793 185361 7372 68095 7910

480492 7272 185937 201506 6993 70490 8295

20 1 14 18 -18 4 1

37 1 24 38 -36 9 1

53 1 27 51 -37 10 1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0

38.9 51.4

39.6 52.0

36.5 53.5

31.9 51.8

27.8 48.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Source: PRIMES

93

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers. Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km. Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions EU15: EU15 Member States EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania EU28: EU27 + Turkey Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) Mtoe: million toe GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

94

APPENDIX 4: “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case results Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

95

EU25: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

877543 351650 120396 139723 196920 68855 23391 42151 67 145 3101

898598 204139 163631 196665 237664 96499 28982 61865 1913 417 3322

879970 138203 116324 167465 248776 209203 31557 139593 22131 2107 13815

713308 78636 50879 97347 161499 324948 33481 227292 38935 4516 20724

642448 55005 42409 77899 73480 393655 34004 275876 51081 8743 23951

43553 -16325 -855 -4714 0 65447 1679 47185 6345 617 9621

6787 -52446 -2080 -1002 -67140 129455 1278 98100 12694 1769 15614

-42655 -65193 -1040 -1907 -137328 162812 123 126996 13140 4349 18205

5.2 -10.6 -0.7 -2.7 0.0 45.5 5.6 51.1 40.2 41.4 229.4

1.0 -40.0 -3.9 -1.0 -29.4 66.2 4.0 75.9 48.4 64.4 305.5

-6.2 -54.2 -2.4 -2.4 -65.1 70.5 0.4 85.3 34.6 99.0 316.8

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

711300 75449 510017 479112 30905 123653 2181

801061 94307 518147 496826 21321 186463 2144

929780 107779 569574 531812 37762 250328 2098

973000 78253 576908 549987 26921 316304 1536

930436 69528 542859 522789 20070 316400 1651

-94495 -24508 -30124 -29545 -579 -39725 -138

-258691 -50142 -92957 -86688 -6270 -115006 -586

-335131 -103392 -109591 -103462 -6129 -121597 -551

-9.2 -18.5 -5.0 -5.3 -1.5 -13.7 -6.2

-21.0 -39.1 -13.9 -13.6 -18.9 -26.7 -27.6

-26.5 -59.8 -16.8 -16.5 -23.4 -27.8 -25.0

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1556194 431944 595746 260548 196920 2181 68855

1653841 306538 634711 376284 237664 2144 96499

1761590 245982 637739 417793 248776 2098 209203

1633433 156888 574911 413651 161499 1536 324948

1517452 124532 529835 394299 73480 1651 393655

-50942 -40833 -30979 -44439 0 -138 65447

-251904 -102588 -95037 -116008 -67140 -586 129455

-377786 -168585 -110631 -123504 -137328 -551 162812

-2.8 -14.2 -4.6 -9.6 0.0 -6.2 45.5

-13.4 -39.5 -14.2 -21.9 -29.4 -27.6 66.2

-19.9 -57.5 -17.3 -23.9 -65.1 -25.0 70.5

27.8 38.3 16.7 12.7 4.4

18.5 38.4 22.8 14.4 5.8

14.0 36.2 23.7 14.1 11.9

9.6 35.2 25.3 9.9 19.9

8.2 34.9 26.0 4.8 25.9

-1.9 -0.7 -1.8 0.4 3.9

-4.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 9.5

-7.3 1.1 -1.3 -6.3 13.8

-11.8 -1.9 -7.0 2.9 49.7

-30.2 -1.0 -9.9 -18.5 91.9

-46.9 3.3 -4.9 -56.5 113.0

2455674 780056 272788 1402830

2900835 921193 359249 1620392

3314419 964265 625846 1724307

3249644 625969 856745 1766930

3217896 284807 1041430 1891660

-168767 0 93302 -262069

-756131 -1148703 -260237 -532285 172894 197706 -668788 -814124

-4.8 0.0 17.5 -13.2

-18.9 -29.4 25.3 -27.5

-26.3 -65.1 23.4 -30.1

355362 246377 48954 47057 10201 2774 0

385987 214488 41870 105480 21211 2939 0

390037 177020 31833 121161 46713 13309 0

364572 99279 21444 122572 101025 20251 0

353885 77230 22507 96951 133663 23533 0

-42204 -37930 200 -31665 17566 9625 0

-98199 -99222 -1868 -60159 47406 15644 0

-136153 -163081 2713 -58297 64239 18273 0

-9.8 -17.6 0.6 -20.7 60.3 261.2

-21.2 -50.0 -8.0 -32.9 88.4 339.5

-27.8 -67.9 13.7 -37.6 92.5 347.4

797634 642275 2 31035 124322

796450 710448 637 17261 68104

790396 697116 26912 16729 49639

760421 641621 62557 12145 44098

728192 599501 80952 11268 36471

-22501 -31806 10120 1479 -2294

-63674 -92403 31553 -1673 -1151

-68873 -108602 44577 -3465 -1382

-2.8 -4.4 60.3 9.7 -4.4

-7.7 -12.6 101.8 -12.1 -2.5

-8.6 -15.3 122.5 -23.5 -3.7 -18.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

77699

69444

64054

-3799

-11722

-14080

-4.7

-14.4

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107527

110791

111717

-321

-408

-448

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1207861

1183545

1156056

-30145

-154960

-214397

-2.4

-11.6

-15.6

341087 216809 124278 261006 146622 273198

330062 211616 118446 273302 158975 333020

356650 221402 135248 303182 175016 373013

372952 223618 149335 278795 163976 367822

384703 220928 163775 260278 152603 358471

230 642 -412 -8784 -13471 -8120

-9450 -4775 -4676 -59946 -47880 -37684

-6862 -4004 -2859 -91007 -72713 -43815

0.1 0.3 -0.3 -2.8 -7.1 -2.1

-2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -17.7 -22.6 -9.3

-1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -25.9 -32.3 -10.9

123937 428121 200242 176468 63092 30053

56633 468312 251885 211352 68712 38465

44484 492866 268037 247069 75962 79444

37943 444915 265293 246531 80861 108002

31957 406910 267076 247377 81211 121524

-718 -24476 -11138 -12241 -4215 22642

-1477 -84981 -44433 -56387 -6831 39148

-2067 -104927 -54321 -86667 -14114 47698

-1.6 -4.7 -4.0 -4.7 -5.3 39.9

-3.7 -16.0 -14.3 -18.6 -7.8 56.9

-6.1 -20.5 -16.9 -25.9 -14.8 64.6

3776.1 1362.6 141.5 698.9 506.1 274.2 792.7

3674.1 1294.9 144.9 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9

3524.1 1123.5 106.4 554.2 465.1 246.7 1028.3

2968.8 769.5 81.3 542.6 411.7 232.8 930.8

2669.5 617.4 69.8 534.4 370.0 221.0 856.8

-357.8 -238.4 -17.6 -22.7 -17.6 -15.2 -46.4

-959.8 -563.7 -32.6 -52.6 -83.2 -43.0 -184.7

-1285.5 -806.6 -29.8 -35.5 -116.7 -60.8 -236.1

-9.2 -17.5 -14.2 -3.9 -3.6 -5.8 -4.3

-24.4 -42.3 -28.6 -8.8 -16.8 -15.6 -16.6

-32.5 -56.6 -29.9 -6.2 -24.0 -21.6 -21.6

100.0

97.3

93.3

78.6

70.7

-9.5

-25.4

-34.0

-9.2

-24.4

-32.5

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

96

EU25: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788 7294.7 213.3 3.53 5571 2.43 8.57 517.7 44.7

452.915 8947.0 184.8 3.65 6405 2.22 8.11 410.7 47.2

464.054 10946.8 160.9 3.80 7142 2.00 7.59 321.9 51.4

469.270 13656.3 119.6 3.48 6925 1.82 6.33 217.4 57.7

469.365 16051.4 94.5 3.23 6856 1.76 5.69 166.3 59.2

0.000 0.0 -4.7 -0.11 -364 -0.14 -0.77 -32.7 -3.7

0.000 0.0 -18.4 -0.54 -1611 -0.27 -2.05 -70.3 -5.8

0.000 0.0 -23.5 -0.80 -2447 -0.33 -2.74 -80.1 -5.7

0.0 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 -4.8 -6.6 -9.2 -9.2 -6.7

0.0 0.0 -13.4 -13.4 -18.9 -12.8 -24.4 -24.4 -9.2

0.0 0.0 -19.9 -19.9 -26.3 -15.7 -32.5 -32.5 -8.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

83.8 85.8 84.9 99.4

77.3 78.1 73.9 91.0

65.0 58.1 54.7 71.9

57.5 46.3 42.9 59.6

0.0 -2.3 -5.7 -2.0

-1.6 -12.5 -16.0 -7.4

-1.0 -16.2 -20.5 -7.3

0.1 -2.8 -7.1 -2.1

-2.5 -17.7 -22.6 -9.3

-1.8 -25.9 -32.3 -10.9

0.41 2.22 2.05 1.94 1.87 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.72 1.65 1.54 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.55 1.53 1.41 2.76

0.16 1.79 1.45 1.48 1.42 2.53

0.13 1.71 1.39 1.42 1.45 2.39

-0.04 -0.04 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.06 -0.10 0.02 0.12 -0.22

-0.10 -0.06 -0.07 0.04 0.20 -0.33

-14.9 -1.9 -4.0 -0.9 1.5 -2.2

-32.4 -3.5 -6.5 1.1 9.1 -8.0

-45.3 -3.4 -4.5 2.6 15.8 -12.0

661750 141082 97168 12785 176 410539 112958 188879 131875 74302 14462 0 1022

822508 136430 106892 106514 1658 471014 149309 152480 219102 61764 34104 0 3564

894558 105839 110492 190136 11656 476436 195270 91433 233462 48012 98274 0 5255

958984 40435 112592 252112 38734 515111 241058 90898 233582 39646 144977 0 6007

12001 0 2959 28123 0 -19080 -1562 -4057 -26337 -4285 13390 0 2207

-48023 -11097 1874 62512 6807 -108119 -13691 -65373 -87746 82 41180 0 3738

-137308 -60781 391 69181 28370 -174469 -6941 -120337 -126552 4680 63376 0 4364

1.5 0.0 2.8 35.9 0.0 -3.9 -1.0 -2.6 -10.7 -6.5 64.6

-5.1 -9.5 1.7 49.0 140.4 -18.5 -6.6 -41.7 -27.3 0.2 72.1

-12.5 -60.1 0.3 37.8 273.7 -25.3 -2.8 -57.0 -35.1 13.4 77.7

162.7

246.4

265.6

36.1 50.0 14.5 46.5 31.8 14.7

38.0 46.0 19.4 53.9 29.1 24.8

41.7 41.5 27.9 62.3 19.3 43.1

46.0 38.3 35.8 64.5 8.9 55.7

-1.5 -3.1 1.5 8.2 1.4 6.8

-3.6 -7.0 6.0 16.8 -2.9 19.6

-1.5 -7.2 11.5 18.2 -9.9 28.1

-3.8 -6.2 8.4 17.9 5.1 37.5

-7.9 -14.5 27.7 36.8 -12.9 83.7

-3.2 -15.8 47.3 39.4 -52.7 101.9

5466.3 480.1 4253.1 402.7 296.9 33.6

6447.9 496.0 5015.4 445.4 451.3 39.7

7389.4 483.8 5768.7 477.6 613.8 45.4

8099.8 472.0 6329.6 506.3 742.5 49.3

-1.5 1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.3 0.0

-12.7 3.2 -12.0 -0.9 -2.9 -0.1

-30.4 5.3 -29.0 0.6 -7.2 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2

-0.4 1.1 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4640.8 504.1 3529.3 411.9 166.3 29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13895

15746

17257

-3.2

-27.0

-64.8

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1753.9 1034.1 461.7 258.1

2131.5 1486.3 374.2 271.0

2579.6 1889.5 400.9 289.2

3033.9 2296.4 420.6 316.8

3402.4 2625.3 438.7 338.3

-2.6 -1.7 -1.1 0.2

-14.9 -15.3 -0.8 1.2

-29.5 -32.0 -0.2 2.7

-0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1

-0.5 -0.7 -0.2 0.4

-0.9 -1.2 0.0 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

273198 7841 138202 82444 9066 28932 6714

333020 7018 158349 108068 8897 45320 5368

373013 6984 169443 135131 8094 47565 5797

367822 5904 163770 142380 5963 43754 6050

358471 4924 152464 142989 5536 46454 6104

-8120 -37 -734 -517 -213 -6609 -11

-37684 -370 -5130 -14450 -555 -17023 -155

-43815 -396 -7387 -21396 -483 -13905 -248

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.6 -12.2 -0.2

-9.3 -5.9 -3.0 -9.2 -8.5 -28.0 -2.5

-10.9 -7.4 -4.6 -13.0 -8.0 -23.0 -3.9

39.3 51.7

39.9 53.9

35.8 55.1

29.6 49.1

25.8 43.9

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.6

-2.6 -6.0

-3.1 -0.3

-9.3 -8.6

-9.2 -12.0

Source: PRIMES

97

EU15: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

707946 210737 117782 132975 181439 65014 22275 39426 67 145 3101

761643 100172 160552 190581 222846 87491 27627 54257 1912 381 3315

742999 53698 113974 161730 231522 182076 29834 117365 21052 1863 11961

589682 34394 48798 92385 143980 270125 31622 180024 36614 4150 17716

520679 26747 40602 73363 60829 319138 32053 210961 47340 8191 20594

33362 -14561 -844 -4690 0 53457 1418 38047 5671 538 7783

9183 -25601 -2030 -650 -63182 100646 1079 73801 11435 1705 12626

-31055 -31870 -996 -1654 -116757 120223 39 88554 12432 4325 14872

4.7 -21.3 -0.7 -2.8 0.0 41.6 5.0 48.0 36.9 40.6 186.3

1.6 -42.7 -4.0 -0.7 -30.5 59.4 3.5 69.5 45.4 69.7 248.1

-5.6 -54.4 -2.4 -2.2 -65.7 60.4 0.1 72.3 35.6 111.9 259.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

643284 89663 458793 435365 23428 92495 2333

741591 110142 472543 455606 16937 155262 3644

847057 115996 516503 487630 28873 210746 3812

872993 75351 520828 503016 17812 273185 3628

826474 66611 484340 473652 10688 270715 4808

-77368 -19085 -26256 -26201 -55 -32016 -12

-221907 -48126 -82735 -78115 -4620 -90900 -146

-284369 -93342 -95078 -91249 -3828 -95795 -153

-8.4 -14.1 -4.8 -5.1 -0.2 -13.2 -0.3

-20.3 -39.0 -13.7 -13.4 -20.6 -25.0 -3.9

-25.6 -58.4 -16.4 -16.2 -26.4 -26.1 -3.1

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1319965 303612 544159 223408 181439 2333 65014

1456936 215739 587926 339289 222846 3644 87491

1543038 169693 583460 372476 231522 3812 182076

1411073 109745 518024 365571 143980 3628 270125

1293077 93358 470866 344078 60829 4808 319138

-44006 -33646 -27100 -36706 0 -12 53457

-212724 -73728 -84766 -91550 -63182 -146 100646

-315423 -125213 -96073 -97449 -116757 -153 120223

-2.8 -16.5 -4.4 -9.0 0.0 -0.3 41.6

-13.1 -40.2 -14.1 -20.0 -30.5 -3.9 59.4

-19.6 -57.3 -16.9 -22.1 -65.7 -3.1 60.4

23.0 41.2 16.9 13.7 4.9

14.8 40.4 23.3 15.3 6.0

11.0 37.8 24.1 15.0 11.8

7.8 36.7 25.9 10.2 19.1

7.2 36.4 26.6 4.7 24.7

-1.8 -0.7 -1.6 0.4 3.7

-3.5 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 8.7

-6.4 1.2 -0.8 -6.3 12.3

-14.2 -1.7 -6.4 2.9 45.6

-31.2 -1.1 -8.0 -20.0 83.4

-46.9 3.3 -3.1 -57.4 99.6

2138940 720059 259810 1159070

2576502 863760 343478 1369264

2937169 897389 593246 1446535

2840654 558068 807971 1474615

2779903 235771 974579 1569553

-145580 0 82430 -228011

-644088 -244893 155947 -555143

-955542 -452548 188512 -691506

-4.7 0.0 16.1 -13.6

-18.5 -30.5 23.9 -27.4

-25.6 -65.7 24.0 -30.6

282186 184170 43718 41697 9827 2774 0

319336 158097 38588 99188 20524 2939 0

318506 125071 29069 114196 38692 11479 0

297850 70651 19462 116912 73554 17272 0

289758 60564 20824 94068 94093 20209 0

-37474 -31284 370 -26739 12386 7794 0

-79374 -72154 -1497 -46941 28553 12664 0

-115804 -123622 3351 -45767 35285 14948 0

-10.5 -20.0 1.3 -19.0 47.1 211.5

-21.0 -50.5 -7.1 -28.6 63.5 274.9

-28.6 -67.1 19.2 -32.7 60.0 284.2

704402 595036 2 13085 96279

725664 665476 604 8717 50868

720382 649670 24682 8612 37418

687612 591506 56501 6509 33095

652450 547367 72402 5980 26701

-19566 -28417 9157 1877 -2183

-55240 -83681 28308 1048 -915

-57371 -96245 39882 333 -1341

-2.6 -4.2 59.0 27.9 -5.5

-7.4 -12.4 100.4 19.2 -2.7

-8.1 -15.0 122.6 5.9 -4.8 -18.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

65703

57740

52236

-3141

-9782

-11972

-4.6

-14.5

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96777

97428

96401

-286

-368

-381

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

866453

970663

1060987

1026417

990836

-25748

-128688

-173090

-2.4

-11.1

-14.9

272481 182306 90175 220020 121346 252606

284781 182967 101814 238404 137376 310102

306968 192133 114835 261672 150810 341536

315763 191585 124178 236553 140285 333815

320872 187190 133682 218271 129111 322581

200 619 -419 -7449 -10811 -7688

-7294 -3706 -3589 -50444 -36932 -34017

-5261 -3064 -2197 -74843 -55378 -37609

0.1 0.3 -0.4 -2.8 -6.7 -2.2

-2.3 -1.9 -2.8 -17.6 -20.8 -9.2

-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -25.5 -30.0 -10.4

79761 393325 173014 155929 36558 27865

35330 434547 226415 191711 50708 31953

27849 450638 234962 222672 56869 67997

24458 400684 228022 218857 62270 92126

20802 361433 226338 217729 62935 101598

-776 -22498 -9704 -10492 -3022 20744

-856 -76572 -37471 -47750 -2486 36447

-810 -92422 -44762 -71367 -6056 42327

-2.7 -4.8 -4.0 -4.5 -5.0 43.9

-3.4 -16.0 -14.1 -17.9 -3.8 65.5

-3.7 -20.4 -16.5 -24.7 -8.8 71.4

3068.4 1021.1 127.2 545.2 419.7 220.7 734.5

3127.0 1014.7 127.0 471.6 401.5 207.4 904.8

2990.7 870.6 98.4 453.8 411.7 213.4 942.8

2543.3 627.3 73.8 433.4 362.7 199.6 846.4

2300.1 535.0 60.8 421.1 324.5 185.8 772.8

-300.1 -193.0 -14.3 -22.0 -15.5 -12.3 -43.0

-757.8 -409.3 -28.9 -47.2 -72.1 -33.7 -166.6

-1010.9 -597.6 -28.6 -30.1 -100.7 -46.9 -207.0

-9.1 -18.1 -12.7 -4.6 -3.6 -5.4 -4.4

-23.0 -39.5 -28.1 -9.8 -16.6 -14.5 -16.4

-30.5 -52.8 -32.0 -6.7 -23.7 -20.1 -21.1

100.0

101.9

97.5

82.9

75.0

-9.8

-24.7

-32.9

-9.1

-23.0

-30.5

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

98

EU15: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749 6981.9 189.1 3.61 5848 2.32 8.39 439.5 47.5

378.062 8572.2 170.0 3.85 6815 2.15 8.27 364.8 49.5

390.652 10391.5 148.5 3.95 7519 1.94 7.66 287.8 53.3

397.458 12835.7 109.9 3.55 7147 1.80 6.40 198.1 59.7

398.737 14948.8 86.5 3.24 6972 1.78 5.77 153.9 61.3

0.000 0.0 -4.2 -0.11 -373 -0.14 -0.77 -28.9 -3.3

0.000 0.0 -16.6 -0.54 -1621 -0.23 -1.91 -59.0 -5.7

0.000 0.0 -21.1 -0.79 -2396 -0.28 -2.54 -67.6 -5.5

0.0 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 -4.7 -6.5 -9.1 -9.1 -5.8

0.0 0.0 -13.1 -13.1 -18.5 -11.3 -23.0 -23.0 -8.7

0.0 0.0 -19.6 -19.6 -25.6 -13.6 -30.5 -30.5 -8.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

90.9 88.8 88.7 100.0

85.4 80.8 77.4 90.8

71.7 59.8 57.3 71.9

63.1 47.6 44.9 59.6

0.1 -2.3 -5.5 -2.0

-1.7 -12.7 -15.1 -7.3

-1.0 -16.3 -19.3 -7.0

0.1 -2.8 -6.7 -2.2

-2.3 -17.6 -20.8 -9.2

-1.6 -25.5 -30.0 -10.4

0.39 2.22 2.00 1.91 1.82 2.91

0.27 2.05 1.66 1.68 1.51 2.92

0.20 1.91 1.48 1.57 1.42 2.76

0.15 1.79 1.37 1.53 1.42 2.54

0.13 1.72 1.31 1.49 1.44 2.40

-0.04 -0.04 -0.07 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.06 -0.08 -0.12 0.02 0.11 -0.22

-0.09 -0.07 -0.07 0.04 0.18 -0.32

-15.7 -2.1 -4.7 -0.9 1.3 -2.2

-29.6 -4.1 -7.7 1.2 8.1 -7.9

-41.1 -4.2 -5.1 2.5 14.1 -11.9

588083 131758 90794 12769 176 352586 88543 144882 125804 67470 13407 0 1022

735140 127644 99507 100507 1645 405837 122719 113445 208478 54728 26028 0 3159

795482 97053 102743 177922 11519 406246 165526 68191 221527 43367 68565 0 4596

833792 33913 104580 232658 38197 424445 196489 73006 215647 36156 94364 0 5272

10971 0 2394 24375 0 -15798 -1979 -3076 -19474 -4253 9202 0 1802

-32609 -9145 1475 56590 6807 -88335 -10023 -48958 -68095 1639 24002 0 3078

-95761 -50755 185 65848 28370 -139409 2476 -81179 -99733 6740 31135 0 3628

1.5 0.0 2.5 32.0 0.0 -3.7 -1.6 -2.6 -8.5 -7.2 54.7

-3.9 -8.6 1.5 46.6 144.4 -17.9 -5.7 -41.8 -23.5 3.9 53.9

-10.3 -59.9 0.2 39.5 288.7 -24.7 1.3 -52.7 -31.6 22.9 49.2

132.9

202.9

220.8

36.9 50.0 13.4 49.4 33.5 15.9

39.1 45.6 18.1 56.2 30.6 25.6

42.6 40.8 27.0 61.7 19.6 42.1

46.6 38.1 34.3 62.5 8.5 54.0

-1.4 -3.0 1.4 7.7 1.4 6.3

-3.7 -7.3 6.6 13.9 -3.4 17.3

-1.4 -7.8 12.6 14.8 -9.9 24.7

-3.5 -6.1 8.3 15.9 5.0 32.3

-8.0 -15.1 32.2 29.1 -14.7 69.7

-2.8 -17.0 58.3 31.0 -54.0 84.4

4997.7 401.8 3928.0 351.3 283.6 33.0

5830.9 423.3 4545.0 395.5 428.1 39.1

6635.5 416.6 5164.8 429.1 580.4 44.7

7205.0 408.7 5589.3 458.4 700.1 48.5

-1.1 0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.0

-10.3 2.6 -9.6 -0.5 -2.7 -0.1

-23.8 4.2 -22.4 1.3 -6.7 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2

-0.3 1.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.9 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4130.1 369.0 3265.7 309.8 157.3 28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14926

16695

18070

-2.8

-26.0

-59.6

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1419.2 914.2 254.9 250.1

1825.6 1309.3 249.5 266.8

2141.5 1589.1 267.4 284.9

2480.6 1888.4 279.9 312.3

2755.1 2132.5 288.9 333.7

-1.6 -1.1 -0.7 0.2

-10.8 -11.3 -0.8 1.2

-21.1 -24.0 0.2 2.6

-0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1

-0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.4

-0.8 -1.1 0.1 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.2

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

252606 6250 129911 75351 6970 27742 6383

310102 5860 146708 100615 7579 44025 5314

341536 5925 154545 122725 6934 45667 5740

333815 5048 147758 127894 5109 42016 5991

322581 4259 135991 127009 4797 44482 6044

-7688 -32 -637 -460 -179 -6369 -11

-34017 -309 -4411 -12597 -436 -16111 -154

-37609 -295 -4744 -18704 -336 -13285 -246

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.2 -0.2

-9.2 -5.8 -2.9 -9.0 -7.9 -27.7 -2.5

-10.4 -6.5 -3.4 -12.8 -6.5 -23.0 -3.9

41.2 58.0

40.7 58.5

36.4 60.3

30.1 54.0

26.3 48.3

-1.2 -0.2

-3.1 -4.9

-2.5 -6.5

-3.3 -0.3

-9.4 -8.4

-8.6 -11.8

Source: PRIMES

99

NMS: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

169598 140913 2614 6749 15481 3841 1116 2725 0 0 0

136955 103966 3079 6084 14818 9008 1355 7609 1 35 8

136970 84505 2350 5735 17254 27127 1723 22227 1079 244 1853

123625 44241 2081 4962 17519 54823 1859 47268 2321 366 3009

121769 28258 1807 4536 12651 74516 1950 64915 3742 552 3357

10191 -1764 -11 -24 0 11990 261 9138 674 79 1838

-2396 -26845 -49 -353 -3958 28809 199 24300 1258 64 2988

-11600 8.0 -1.9 -8.7 -33322 -2.0 -37.8 -54.1 -44 -0.5 -2.3 -2.4 -253 -0.4 -6.6 -5.3 -20570 0.0 -18.4 -61.9 42590 79.2 110.7 133.4 83 17.9 12.0 4.5 38442 69.8 105.8 145.2 707 166.2 118.4 23.3 24 47.8 21.3 4.6 3333 11870.6 14234.7 13478.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

68016 -14214 51224 43747 7477 31158 -152

59470 -15836 45604 41220 4384 31202 -1500

82723 -8217 53071 44182 8889 39582 -1714

100007 2902 56080 46971 9109 43118 -2093

103962 2917 58519 49137 9381 45684 -3158

-17127 -5423 -3868 -3344 -524 -7709 -127

-36783 -2015 -10222 -8572 -1650 -24106 -440

-50762 -10050 -14513 -12212 -2301 -25802 -398

-17.2 194.2 -6.8 -7.0 -5.6 -16.3 8.0

-26.9 -41.0 -15.4 -15.4 -15.3 -35.9 26.6

-32.8 -77.5 -19.9 -19.9 -19.7 -36.1 14.4

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

236229 128332 51587 37140 15481 -152 3841

196904 90799 46785 36994 14818 -1500 9008

218552 76288 54279 45317 17254 -1714 27127

222359 47143 56888 48080 17519 -2093 54823

224375 31174 58970 50221 12651 -3158 74516

-6936 -7187 -3879 -7733 0 -127 11990

-39180 -28860 -10271 -24458 -3958 -440 28809

-62363 -43372 -14558 -26054 -20570 -398 42590

-3.1 -8.6 -6.7 -14.6 0.0 8.0 79.2

-15.0 -38.0 -15.3 -33.7 -18.4 26.6 110.7

-21.7 -58.2 -19.8 -34.2 -61.9 14.4 133.4

54.3 21.8 15.7 6.6 1.6

46.1 23.8 18.8 7.5 4.6

34.9 24.8 20.7 7.9 12.4

21.2 25.6 21.6 7.9 24.7

13.9 26.3 22.4 5.6 33.2

-2.1 -1.0 -2.8 0.2 5.7

-7.9 -0.1 -6.1 -0.3 14.7

-12.1 0.6 -4.2 -5.9 22.1

-5.7 -3.7 -11.9 3.2 84.9

-27.0 -0.4 -22.0 -4.1 147.9

-46.6 2.5 -15.9 -51.3 198.3

316734 59996 12978 243760

324333 57434 15771 251128

377250 66876 32600 277773

408990 67901 48774 292315

437993 49036 66851 322106

-23186 0 10872 -34059

-112043 -15345 16947 -113645

-193161 -79737 9194 -122618

-5.8 0.0 50.0 -10.9

-21.5 -18.4 53.2 -28.0

-30.6 -61.9 15.9 -27.6

73176 62206 5236 5360 374 0 0

66652 56391 3281 6292 687 0 0

71530 51949 2764 6966 8021 1831 0

66722 28628 1982 5660 27472 2980 0

64127 16666 1683 2883 39570 3324 0

-4730 -6645 -170 -4926 5180 1831 0

-18825 -27068 -371 -13218 18853 2980 0

-20349 -39459 -638 -12530 28954 3324 0

-6.2 -11.3 -5.8 -41.4 182.4

-22.0 -48.6 -15.8 -70.0 218.7

-24.1 -70.3 -27.5 -81.3 272.7

93232 47239 0 17949 28043

70786 44972 33 8544 17236

70014 47446 2230 8117 12221

72809 50115 6056 5636 11002

75742 52134 8550 5288 9770

-2934 -3390 963 -397 -111

-8434 -8723 3245 -2721 -236

-11502 -12357 4695 -3799 -41

-4.0 -6.7 76.0 -4.7 -0.9

-10.4 -14.8 115.5 -32.6 -2.1

-13.2 -19.2 121.8 -41.8 -0.4 -15.1

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

11996

11705

11819

-657

-1940

-2108

-5.2

-14.2

10089

10135

10750

13363

15315

-35

-40

-67

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

146874

157128

165220

-4397

-26271

-41308

-2.9

-14.3

-20.0

68606 34503 34103 40986 25276 20592

45281 28649 16632 34898 21599 22917

49682 29269 20413 41510 24206 31477

57189 32033 25156 42242 23691 34006

63831 33739 30092 42007 23492 35890

30 23 6 -1335 -2660 -432

-2156 -1069 -1087 -9502 -10947 -3667

-1602 -940 -662 -16164 -17335 -6207

0.1 0.1 0.0 -3.1 -9.9 -1.4

-3.6 -3.2 -4.1 -18.4 -31.6 -9.7

-2.4 -2.7 -2.2 -27.8 -42.5 -14.7

44176 34795 27229 20539 26534 2188

21303 33764 25471 19641 18005 6512

16635 42228 33075 24397 19093 11446

13485 44231 37271 27674 18591 15876

11155 45477 40738 29647 18276 19926

58 -1977 -1434 -1750 -1193 1898

-620 -8409 -6962 -8637 -4344 2701

-1257 -12505 -9559 -15300 -8059 5372

0.4 -4.5 -4.2 -6.7 -5.9 19.9

-4.4 -16.0 -15.7 -23.8 -18.9 20.5

-10.1 -21.6 -19.0 -34.0 -30.6 36.9

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

707.7 341.5 14.3 153.7 86.4 53.5 58.2

547.1 280.2 17.9 96.1 50.6 37.2 65.1

533.4 252.9 8.0 100.5 53.3 33.3 85.5

425.5 142.2 7.5 109.2 49.0 33.3 84.4

369.4 82.4 9.0 113.3 45.5 35.3 84.0

-57.6 -45.3 -3.3 -0.7 -2.1 -2.9 -3.4

-202.0 -154.5 -3.7 -5.4 -11.1 -9.3 -18.1

-274.6 -209.0 -1.2 -5.3 -16.0 -14.0 -29.1

-9.8 -15.2 -29.0 -0.7 -3.7 -8.0 -3.8

-32.2 -52.1 -33.3 -4.7 -18.4 -21.8 -17.7

-42.6 -71.7 -11.7 -4.5 -26.0 -28.4 -25.7

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

75.4

60.1

52.2

-8.1

-28.5

-38.8

-9.8

-32.2

-42.6

Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other

Source: PRIMES

100

NMS: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039 312.8 755.2 3.15 4221 3.00 9.43 2262.2 28.7

74.853 374.8 525.3 2.63 4333 2.78 7.31 1459.6 30.1

73.401 555.3 393.6 2.98 5140 2.44 7.27 960.5 37.7

71.813 820.6 271.0 3.10 5695 1.91 5.93 518.5 44.7

70.628 1102.7 203.5 3.18 6201 1.65 5.23 335.0 46.1

0.000 0.0 -12.5 -0.09 -316 -0.18 -0.79 -103.8 -6.4

0.000 0.0 -47.7 -0.55 -1560 -0.49 -2.81 -246.2 -7.3

0.000 0.0 -56.6 -0.88 -2735 -0.60 -3.89 -249.0 -7.7

0.0 0.0 -3.1 -3.1 -5.8 -6.9 -9.8 -9.8 -14.5

0.0 0.0 -15.0 -15.0 -21.5 -20.2 -32.2 -32.2 -14.1

0.0 0.0 -21.7 -21.7 -30.6 -26.7 -42.6 -42.6 -14.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

52.9 70.0 65.9 92.9

35.2 55.3 49.7 86.1

27.2 37.7 32.3 63.0

23.4 27.7 23.1 49.4

0.0 -1.8 -5.5 -1.2

-1.0 -8.5 -14.9 -6.8

-0.6 -10.7 -17.0 -8.6

0.1 -3.1 -9.9 -1.4

-3.6 -18.4 -31.6 -9.7

-2.4 -27.8 -42.5 -14.7

0.50 2.26 2.24 2.11 2.12 2.83

0.46 2.00 2.12 1.45 1.72 2.84

0.36 1.86 2.02 1.28 1.37 2.72

0.19 1.76 1.91 1.16 1.40 2.48

0.10 1.68 1.77 1.08 1.50 2.34

-0.05 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.03 -0.07

-0.14 0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.18 -0.24

-0.17 0.02 -0.04 0.03 0.30 -0.35

-11.7 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 2.1 -2.5

-41.6 0.7 -1.1 -0.1 14.3 -8.8

-62.0 1.5 -2.1 2.5 24.5 -12.9

73667 9324 6374 16 0 57953 24415 43996 6071 6832 1055 0 0

87368 8786 7385 6007 13 65176 26589 39035 10623 7037 8076 0 405

99076 8786 7749 12214 138 70189 29744 23242 11935 4645 29708 0 659

125192 6522 8012 19454 537 90666 44569 17892 17935 3490 50613 0 735

1030 0 565 3748 0 -3283 417 -981 -6863 -32 4188 0 405

-15414 -1952 399 5922 0 -19783 -3668 -16414 -19650 -1556 17179 0 659

-41547 -10026 207 3333 0 -35060 -9416 -39158 -26819 -2060 32241 0 735

1.2 0.0 8.3 165.9 0.0 -4.8 1.6 -2.5 -39.2 -0.5 107.7

-13.5 -18.2 5.4 94.1 0.0 -22.0 -11.0 -41.4 -62.2 -25.1 137.1

-24.9 -60.6 2.6 20.7 0.0 -27.9 -17.4 -68.6 -59.9 -37.1 175.5

32.4 50.3 23.5 23.3 17.7 5.6

33.4 49.3 29.2 36.5 17.7 18.8

37.7 47.1 33.6 66.4 16.6 49.8

43.2 39.9 45.2 77.4 11.2 66.2

-1.8 -3.7 2.5 11.7 1.0 10.7

-3.1 -4.8 2.6 36.1 0.6 35.5

-2.1 -3.3 5.3 39.6 -9.2 48.8

-5.0 -6.9 9.4 47.3 6.1 132.4

-7.7 -9.3 8.4 119.0 3.9 247.1

-4.6 -7.6 13.2 104.7 -45.1 279.9

468.6 78.3 325.1 51.4 13.3 0.6

616.9 72.7 470.5 49.9 23.2 0.7

753.8 67.2 604.0 48.6 33.4 0.7

894.7 63.3 740.3 47.9 42.4 0.8

-0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0

-2.3 0.6 -2.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0

-6.6 1.1 -6.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.0

-0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.0

-0.3 0.9 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2

-0.7 1.7 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.5

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

510.7 135.1 263.6 102.1 9.0 0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8405

10497

12668

-5.7

-32.3

-94.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

334.6 119.9 206.8 7.9

305.9 177.1 124.7 4.2

438.1 300.4 133.5 4.3

553.3 408.0 140.7 4.6

647.3 492.8 149.8 4.6

-1.0 -0.6 -0.4 0.0

-4.1 -4.1 0.0 0.0

-8.4 -8.0 -0.4 0.1

-0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.3

-0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.7

-1.3 -1.6 -0.3 1.2

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

789

674

587

-1.8

-4.9

-7.6

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

20592 1591 8290 7093 2096 1190 331

22917 1159 11641 7453 1317 1294 54

31477 1059 14898 12406 1160 1898 57

34006 856 16012 14487 854 1738 60

35890 665 16473 15980 738 1972 61

-432 -5 -96 -57 -34 -240 0

-3667 -61 -720 -1853 -120 -912 -1

-6207 -102 -2644 -2692 -147 -620 -2

-1.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -2.8 -11.2 -0.1

-9.7 -6.6 -4.3 -11.3 -12.3 -34.4 -2.0

-14.7 -13.2 -13.8 -14.4 -16.6 -23.9 -3.9

23.9 25.0

31.4 26.7

29.7 30.0

25.1 27.3

21.6 25.5

-0.6 -0.1

-2.2 -3.3

-3.6 -4.0

-1.8 -0.3

-8.2 -10.7

-14.3 -13.4

Source: PRIMES

101

EU27: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

928078 364706 128402 162645 200702 71623 25013 43297 67 145 3101

937145 214324 170011 207644 243761 101405 30483 65264 1913 417 3329

922253 148949 122570 179441 253537 217756 33761 145155 22272 2139 14427

758172 89492 57092 108524 167704 335361 35898 233753 39305 4667 21738

688143 66156 48614 87843 79608 405922 36634 283696 51504 9011 25076

44065 -16926 -855 -5464 0 67310 2044 48002 6437 625 10201

7103 -53497 -2080 -1002 -67988 131670 1522 98931 12904 1794 16520

-44503 -65368 -1040 -1907 -141700 165512 223 128330 13373 4390 19195

5.0 -10.2 -0.7 -3.0 0.0 44.7 6.4 49.4 40.7 41.3 241.4

0.9 -37.4 -3.5 -0.9 -28.8 64.6 4.4 73.4 48.9 62.4 316.6

-6.1 -49.7 -2.1 -2.1 -64.0 68.8 0.6 82.6 35.1 95.0 326.4

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

749474 81418 529724 503451 26273 135011 3321

817569 98469 525771 507009 18762 191643 1687

951997 113174 581042 546649 34393 256303 1477

1002269 83509 590689 567573 23115 327073 998

967259 76737 558292 542360 15932 331041 1189

-96548 -24803 -31186 -30775 -411 -40419 -139

-269545 -54030 -95754 -90015 -5738 -119174 -588

-348069 -107936 -114085 -108811 -5274 -125496 -553

-9.2 -18.0 -5.1 -5.3 -1.2 -13.6 -8.6

-21.2 -39.3 -13.9 -13.7 -19.9 -26.7 -37.1

-26.5 -58.4 -17.0 -16.7 -24.9 -27.5 -31.7

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1645474 450795 624250 294782 200702 3321 71623

1709133 320708 648970 392603 243761 1687 101405

1825969 262124 655332 435744 253537 1477 217756

1707403 173002 594742 435597 167704 998 335361

1599771 142893 551275 418885 79608 1189 405922

-52483 -41729 -32041 -45883 0 -139 67310

-262442 -107527 -97834 -120176 -67988 -588 131670

-392572 -173303 -115125 -127402 -141700 -553 165512

-2.8 -13.7 -4.7 -9.5 0.0 -8.6 44.7

-13.3 -38.3 -14.1 -21.6 -28.8 -37.1 64.6

-19.7 -54.8 -17.3 -23.3 -64.0 -31.7 68.8

27.4 37.9 17.9 12.2 4.4

18.8 38.0 23.0 14.3 5.9

14.4 35.9 23.9 13.9 11.9

10.1 34.8 25.5 9.8 19.6

8.9 34.5 26.2 5.0 25.4

-1.8 -0.7 -1.8 0.4 3.9

-4.1 -0.3 -2.7 -2.1 9.3

-6.9 1.0 -1.2 -6.1 13.3

-11.3 -1.9 -6.9 2.9 48.9

-28.9 -0.9 -9.6 -17.9 89.9

-43.7 3.0 -4.5 -55.2 110.3

2561205 794718 291642 1474844

2993398 944823 376697 1671878

3428825 982718 653122 1792985

3390746 650020 889177 1851549

3366943 308556 1077019 1981367

-173341 0 98621 -271962

-772963 -1197474 -263526 -549231 178174 201590 -687611 -849833

-4.8 0.0 17.8 -13.2

-18.6 -28.8 25.1 -27.1

-26.2 -64.0 23.0 -30.0

384763 261342 56108 54301 10237 2774 0

402753 225135 43691 109769 21219 2939 0

408959 189598 33483 124586 47413 13879 0

384934 112173 22644 127156 101821 21140 0

372115 90273 22830 100008 134502 24501 0

-43469 -38495 -297 -32710 17837 10195 0

-103079 -103375 -1595 -62069 47426 16533 0

-143083 -168964 2695 -60294 64239 19241 0

-9.6 -16.9 -0.9 -20.8 60.3 276.7

-21.1 -48.0 -6.6 -32.8 87.2 358.8

-27.8 -65.2 13.4 -37.6 91.4 365.8

840016 673728 2 38458 127829

818581 727122 637 19291 71530

814967 718199 27052 16878 52839

787868 665420 63231 12321 46895

760274 625277 83240 12403 39354

-24023 -33036 10149 1442 -2578

-67091 -95731 31907 -1595 -1672

-71864 -113951 45869 -2442 -1340

-2.9 -4.4 60.0 9.3 -4.7

-7.8 -12.6 101.9 -11.5 -3.4

-8.6 -15.4 122.7 -16.4 -3.3 -17.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

84482

76375

71639

-4104

-12980

-15427

-4.6

-14.5

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110056

113744

115127

-330

-420

-461

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1249471

1235618

1218131

-31689

-161570

-225133

-2.5

-11.6

-15.6

372041 239834 132206 267394 151680 280091

342654 220752 121902 283857 161545 338258

374380 233917 140462 314056 177989 383046

396581 239541 157039 291035 166961 381042

413429 239992 173436 273329 155671 375702

309 715 -406 -9825 -13911 -8262

-9940 -5230 -4710 -62415 -49784 -39431

-8507 -5339 -3168 -94330 -76031 -46265

0.1 0.3 -0.3 -3.0 -7.2 -2.1

-2.4 -2.1 -2.9 -17.7 -23.0 -9.4

-2.0 -2.2 -1.8 -25.7 -32.8 -11.0

128087 441141 219636 183815 67635 30892

58191 476894 259889 216343 73194 41802

46406 506688 279428 254051 78587 84312

39620 461467 280702 256056 83998 113776

35350 425869 285706 257706 85233 128267

-914 -24781 -11294 -12535 -5336 23171

-1991 -87816 -45698 -57426 -8531 39891

-1140 -109257 -57173 -90187 -15999 48624

-1.9 -4.7 -3.9 -4.7 -6.4 37.9

-4.8 -16.0 -14.0 -18.3 -9.2 54.0

-3.1 -20.4 -16.7 -25.9 -15.8 61.1

4009.9 1483.5 151.1 761.0 516.6 285.7 812.0

3800.2 1359.8 154.0 594.1 459.7 247.7 984.9

3674.9 1189.1 114.9 587.6 476.0 250.3 1057.0

3134.5 837.7 85.8 581.6 424.8 236.8 967.8

2854.0 682.1 74.8 587.5 382.6 225.1 901.9

-367.9 -245.0 -18.9 -24.0 -17.8 -15.3 -46.9

-997.1 -583.9 -36.0 -57.3 -84.9 -44.3 -190.7

-1326.4 -832.4 -29.1 -34.0 -120.9 -63.7 -246.3

-9.1 -17.1 -14.1 -3.9 -3.6 -5.8 -4.2

-24.1 -41.1 -29.6 -9.0 -16.7 -15.8 -16.5

-31.7 -55.0 -28.0 -5.5 -24.0 -22.0 -21.5

100.0

94.8

91.6

78.2

71.2

-9.2

-24.9

-33.1

-9.1

-24.1

-31.7

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

102

EU27: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712 7358.9 223.6 3.48 5418 2.44 8.48 544.9 44.6

483.520 9001.0 189.9 3.53 6191 2.22 7.86 422.2 46.7

492.838 11044.1 165.3 3.71 6957 2.01 7.46 332.7 50.8

496.408 13825.4 123.5 3.44 6831 1.84 6.31 226.7 56.9

494.784 16315.6 98.1 3.23 6805 1.78 5.77 174.9 58.4

0.000 0.0 -4.8 -0.11 -352 -0.14 -0.75 -33.3 -3.6

0.000 0.0 -19.0 -0.53 -1557 -0.26 -2.01 -72.1 -5.9

0.000 0.0 -24.1 -0.79 -2420 -0.31 -2.68 -81.3 -5.8

0.0 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 -4.8 -6.5 -9.1 -9.1 -6.7

0.0 0.0 -13.3 -13.3 -18.6 -12.5 -24.1 -24.1 -9.4

0.0 0.0 -19.7 -19.7 -26.2 -15.0 -31.7 -31.7 -9.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

80.2 87.2 83.5 98.7

74.5 78.9 72.6 91.1

63.1 58.9 53.7 72.4

56.1 47.1 42.1 60.5

0.1 -2.5 -5.7 -2.0

-1.6 -12.6 -16.0 -7.5

-1.2 -16.3 -20.6 -7.5

0.1 -3.0 -7.2 -2.1

-2.4 -17.7 -23.0 -9.4

-2.0 -25.7 -32.8 -11.0

0.42 2.22 2.05 1.93 1.88 2.90

0.30 2.03 1.73 1.62 1.53 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.57 1.52 1.41 2.76

0.16 1.79 1.47 1.46 1.42 2.54

0.13 1.72 1.42 1.40 1.45 2.40

-0.04 -0.03 -0.07 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.06 -0.11 0.02 0.12 -0.22

-0.10 -0.05 -0.05 0.03 0.20 -0.32

-14.4 -1.8 -4.0 -0.6 1.6 -2.2

-31.2 -3.4 -6.7 1.2 9.4 -7.8

-43.2 -3.0 -3.5 2.2 16.0 -11.8

697174 145542 105185 12786 176 433485 120284 203503 135927 78309 14723 0 1022

861116 139130 116083 107693 1661 496549 160123 165823 226506 65601 34929 0 3690

935645 109239 120378 193855 11672 500501 209918 106367 240045 49473 99165 0 5451

1005065 43440 123023 256359 38805 543438 259243 105109 242402 39982 149723 0 6221

11793 0 3707 28887 0 -20801 -3518 -4619 -27864 -4285 13633 0 2334

-47829 -11530 2497 64899 6807 -110502 -15798 -65668 -89652 321 40563 0 3934

-151253 -62997 854 71855 28370 -189335 -14932 -126251 -136896 4652 64582 0 4578

1.4 0.0 3.3 36.7 0.0 -4.0 -2.2 -2.7 -11.0 -6.1 64.0

-4.9 -9.5 2.1 50.3 139.9 -18.1 -7.0 -38.2 -27.2 0.7 69.2

-13.1 -59.2 0.7 38.9 271.9 -25.8 -5.4 -54.6 -36.1 13.2 75.9

172.0

259.3

278.6

35.7 49.0 14.9 46.4 31.6 14.9

37.7 45.5 19.8 53.6 28.7 24.9

41.4 41.4 28.8 61.5 19.2 42.3

45.8 38.2 36.7 63.6 9.2 54.4

-1.5 -3.0 1.2 8.2 1.4 6.8

-3.4 -7.0 6.0 16.3 -2.8 19.1

-1.5 -6.8 10.9 17.6 -9.6 27.3

-3.9 -6.1 6.6 18.0 5.1 37.4

-7.6 -14.4 26.4 36.1 -12.6 82.0

-3.1 -15.1 42.2 38.4 -51.2 100.4

5568.5 502.3 4316.4 417.8 298.4 33.6

6594.8 518.0 5124.8 457.6 454.7 39.8

7609.5 508.1 5940.2 493.8 622.0 45.4

8392.0 500.8 6556.1 525.9 759.8 49.4

-1.2 1.0 -1.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.0

-12.9 3.7 -13.6 0.1 -3.0 -0.1

-32.9 6.7 -31.7 0.0 -7.7 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.2

-0.4 1.4 -0.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4769.3 554.1 3567.1 450.2 168.5 29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13381

15329

16961

-2.4

-25.9

-66.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1861.5 1075.1 524.7 261.8

2177.1 1507.0 396.1 274.0

2683.0 1956.5 426.8 299.7

3185.6 2407.1 447.1 331.4

3610.5 2786.6 465.7 358.3

-1.8 -2.5 0.6 0.1

-16.3 -18.2 0.7 1.3

-35.2 -37.7 -0.6 3.1

-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0

-0.5 -0.8 0.2 0.4

-1.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

230

221

-0.2

-1.2

-2.2

-0.1

-0.5

-1.0

280091 8685 139578 85770 9564 29449 7044

338258 7514 160719 109568 9423 45553 5481

383046 7434 173172 139873 8411 47959 6197

381042 6318 168759 148870 6222 44314 6560

375702 5289 158503 151790 5784 47609 6728

-8262 -38 -762 -575 -202 -6668 -17

-39431 -387 -5329 -15591 -569 -17379 -177

-46265 -455 -7800 -22891 -519 -14284 -316

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.3 -12.2 -0.3

-9.4 -5.8 -3.1 -9.5 -8.4 -28.2 -2.6

-11.0 -7.9 -4.7 -13.1 -8.2 -23.1 -4.5

38.9 50.8

39.8 53.6

35.7 55.0

29.6 49.0

25.8 44.0

-1.1 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.6 -6.0

-3.1 -0.4

-9.3 -8.8

-9.2 -12.0

Source: PRIMES

103

EU28: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

961237 377116 132112 162820 200702 88487 27003 57710 67 173 3534

963855 227617 172757 208170 243761 111549 33138 71804 1916 679 4012

953703 158175 125814 180389 253537 235789 37327 151897 22750 2900 20914

799371 100984 60474 109879 167704 360331 39681 242331 40452 7158 30709

738784 78687 52353 89264 81711 436770 40784 293795 53212 13623 35356

49403 -18235 -855 -5591 0 74084 2462 48730 6760 592 15539

13628 -55658 -2080 -1002 -67988 140357 1776 100071 13311 1109 24091

-39936 -67725 -1040 -1907 -143065 173801 223 129584 13782 2383 27830

5.5 -10.3 -0.7 -3.0 0.0 45.8 7.1 47.2 42.3 25.7 289.1

1.7 -35.5 -3.3 -0.9 -28.8 63.8 4.7 70.3 49.0 18.3 364.0

-5.1 -46.3 -1.9 -2.1 -63.6 66.1 0.6 78.9 35.0 21.2 369.8

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

776740 85626 550163 523502 26661 137693 3259

868442 107717 555056 528467 26589 203694 1975

1018082 125149 613221 576551 36670 278551 1161

1091992 93663 636926 610622 26305 360637 765

1087886 89043 618553 598508 20045 379414 877

-101052 -25510 -31993 -31530 -463 -43410 -139

-287224 -59709 -101335 -95238 -6097 -125592 -588

-380915 -116749 -125746 -119723 -6024 -137865 -554

-9.0 -16.9 -5.0 -5.2 -1.2 -13.5 -10.7

-20.8 -38.9 -13.7 -13.5 -18.8 -25.8 -43.5

-25.9 -56.7 -16.9 -16.7 -23.1 -26.7 -38.7

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1704962 467717 647159 297637 200702 3259 88487

1786487 343986 679975 405241 243761 1975 111549

1923004 283324 690254 458940 253537 1161 235789

1837684 194647 643722 470516 167704 765 360331

1770261 167730 614496 468678 81711 877 436770

-51650 -43745 -32848 -49001 0 -139 74084

-273596 -115367 -103415 -126594 -67988 -588 140357

-420851 -184474 -126786 -139772 -143065 -554 173801

-2.6 -13.4 -4.5 -9.6 0.0 -10.7 45.8

-13.0 -37.2 -13.8 -21.2 -28.8 -43.5 63.8

-19.2 -52.4 -17.1 -23.0 -63.6 -38.7 66.1

27.4 38.0 17.5 11.8 5.2

19.3 38.1 22.7 13.6 6.2

14.7 35.9 23.9 13.2 12.3

10.6 35.0 25.6 9.1 19.6

9.5 34.7 26.5 4.6 24.7

-1.8 -0.7 -1.9 0.3 4.1

-4.1 -0.4 -2.7 -2.0 9.2

-6.6 0.9 -1.3 -5.6 12.7

-11.0 -2.0 -7.2 2.7 49.7

-27.9 -1.0 -9.5 -18.3 88.2

-41.1 2.6 -4.7 -55.0 105.6

2618738 794718 314786 1509233

3118298 944823 407604 1765871

3593155 982718 700141 1910297

3608914 650020 946545 2012349

3681182 316709 1145322 2219151

-181947 0 107239 -289186

-813609 -1282716 -263526 -554524 185864 206340 -735946 -934531

-4.8 0.0 18.1 -13.1

-18.4 -28.8 24.4 -26.8

-25.8 -63.6 22.0 -29.6

393649 266482 57294 56793 10237 2842 0

424378 235098 46624 118348 21304 3004 0

437409 197829 35539 136399 48227 19414 0

422125 123865 23711 141655 103848 29046 0

418792 107743 23676 116743 136912 33718 0

-42750 -40393 -183 -35863 18153 15536 0

-105406 -110760 -1625 -65544 48277 24245 0

-150109 -179263 2632 -66654 65007 28170 0

-8.9 -17.0 -0.5 -20.8 60.4 400.6

-20.0 -47.2 -6.4 -31.6 86.9 505.0

-26.4 -62.5 12.5 -36.3 90.4 507.8

867592 696742 2 38458 132391

846345 750941 637 19291 75474

851476 751345 27164 16913 56054

837985 711851 63856 12422 49856

824940 685164 85321 12574 41882

-24775 -33791 10172 1440 -2596

-71915 -100954 32258 -1620 -1599

-81701 -124863 47025 -2489 -1374

-2.8 -4.3 59.9 9.3 -4.4

-7.9 -12.4 102.1 -11.5 -3.1

-9.0 -15.4 122.8 -16.5 -3.2 -17.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

80396

88538

87354

79861

75798

-4211

-13452

-16293

-4.6

-14.4

101612

112692

113441

117704

119641

-335

-446

-487

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1321824

1337957

1357192

-33236

-173325

-251329

-2.5

-11.5

-15.6

384219 245670 138549 281949 154275 289441

363322 228215 135107 300854 166339 350426

401469 242215 159254 333416 185878 401061

436047 249763 186284 316209 177245 408455

473487 253205 220281 304115 167530 412060

222 703 -481 -9902 -14729 -8827

-11265 -5442 -5823 -65600 -53327 -43133

-10343 -5524 -4818 -103586 -81981 -55420

0.1 0.3 -0.3 -2.9 -7.3 -2.2

-2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -17.2 -23.1 -9.6

-2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -25.4 -32.9 -11.9

136126 458929 220792 187680 67875 38483

68674 499706 264489 224587 74443 49041

57744 536048 291186 265740 79178 91928

48102 505543 301678 272524 86324 123786

41527 484046 318868 281494 89997 141260

-1022 -25569 -11528 -13128 -5529 23540

-2464 -93304 -48630 -60523 -7706 39302

-1957 -120807 -63152 -96745 -15252 46583

-1.7 -4.6 -3.8 -4.7 -6.5 34.4

-4.9 -15.6 -13.9 -18.2 -8.2 46.5

-4.5 -20.0 -16.5 -25.6 -14.5 49.2

4136.3 1515.0 155.8 796.2 538.0 291.5 839.9

3998.9 1431.1 159.9 650.1 481.6 255.8 1020.5

3906.1 1257.7 117.0 660.0 500.9 261.3 1109.3

3434.8 924.0 86.4 672.0 458.5 248.4 1045.5

3242.1 796.1 75.3 710.3 424.8 234.2 1001.4

-385.8 -259.7 -18.6 -24.2 -18.4 -16.3 -48.6

-1059.9 -621.7 -35.9 -63.5 -89.6 -46.8 -202.4

-1433.8 -888.7 -29.1 -41.7 -132.3 -66.2 -275.8

-9.0 -17.1 -13.7 -3.5 -3.5 -5.9 -4.2

-23.6 -40.2 -29.4 -8.6 -16.3 -15.8 -16.2

-30.7 -52.8 -27.9 -5.5 -23.8 -22.0 -21.6

100.0

96.7

94.4

83.0

78.4

-9.3

-25.6

-34.7

-9.0

-23.6

-30.7

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

104

EU28: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913 7511.4 227.0 3.22 4951 2.43 7.82 550.7 44.6

550.981 9217.8 193.8 3.24 5660 2.24 7.26 433.8 47.5

569.992 11370.5 169.1 3.37 6304 2.03 6.85 343.5 51.6

582.152 14408.7 127.5 3.16 6199 1.87 5.90 238.4 57.7

587.546 17374.7 101.9 3.01 6265 1.83 5.52 186.6 59.6

0.000 0.0 -4.5 -0.09 -319 -0.14 -0.68 -33.9 -3.7

0.000 0.0 -19.0 -0.47 -1398 -0.26 -1.82 -73.6 -6.0

0.000 0.0 -24.2 -0.72 -2183 -0.30 -2.44 -82.5 -5.8

0.0 0.0 -2.6 -2.6 -4.8 -6.5 -9.0 -9.0 -6.6

0.0 0.0 -13.0 -13.0 -18.4 -12.2 -23.6 -23.6 -9.4

0.0 0.0 -19.2 -19.2 -25.8 -14.2 -30.7 -30.7 -8.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.8 87.3 84.3 98.7

76.0 78.8 73.9 91.5

64.9 59.5 54.9 73.6

58.1 47.5 42.8 61.5

0.0 -2.3 -5.9 -2.0

-1.7 -12.3 -16.5 -7.8

-1.3 -16.2 -21.0 -8.3

0.1 -2.9 -7.3 -2.2

-2.5 -17.2 -23.1 -9.6

-2.1 -25.4 -32.9 -11.9

0.42 2.22 2.07 1.91 1.89 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.79 1.60 1.54 2.91

0.23 1.92 1.64 1.50 1.41 2.77

0.17 1.81 1.54 1.45 1.40 2.56

0.14 1.75 1.50 1.40 1.40 2.43

-0.04 -0.03 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.06 -0.10 0.01 0.12 -0.20

-0.10 -0.05 -0.05 0.03 0.19 -0.30

-14.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.7 1.6 -2.1

-30.3 -3.1 -6.3 1.0 9.5 -7.4

-40.6 -2.7 -3.5 2.2 16.1 -11.1

725459 145542 116592 12806 176 450343 122684 210547 143140 80801 14814 0 1040

903296 139130 128195 109569 1661 524741 164400 175915 239643 68886 35371 0 4926

988811 109239 132999 200450 11703 534421 222571 115408 259383 51422 100995 0 7212

1085954 44476 136672 268428 38953 597425 282036 121647 270265 41807 155430 0 8276

14473 0 4262 30149 0 -19938 -4163 -4619 -27965 -4569 13714 0 3502

-49274 -11530 2834 68169 6807 -115555 -13169 -69282 -93415 177 41337 0 5628

-159172 -63674 854 76173 28370 -200894 -9826 -135856 -144152 4510 68063 0 6541

1.6 0.0 3.4 38.0 0.0 -3.7 -2.5 -2.6 -10.5 -6.2 63.3

-4.7 -9.5 2.2 51.5 139.0 -17.8 -5.6 -37.5 -26.5 0.3 69.3

-12.8 -58.9 0.6 39.6 268.1 -25.2 -3.4 -52.8 -34.8 12.1 77.9

246.0

355.1

376.8

35.8 49.1 14.8 45.6 30.3 15.3

37.6 45.4 19.4 52.7 27.3 25.4

41.0 41.7 28.9 59.9 18.0 41.9

45.6 38.7 36.9 60.8 8.6 52.2

-1.8 -3.1 1.1 8.3 1.3 7.0

-3.8 -7.0 6.5 16.1 -2.6 18.8

-2.1 -6.8 11.6 16.9 -8.9 25.8

-4.7 -6.3 6.2 18.7 5.1 38.0

-8.5 -14.3 28.8 36.8 -12.8 81.1

-4.4 -15.0 46.0 38.4 -51.0 97.8

5752.9 589.7 4397.4 423.6 304.7 37.4

6896.0 619.8 5298.7 466.2 466.2 45.0

8248.3 631.2 6392.7 516.0 653.1 55.2

9444.1 615.7 7372.3 571.0 822.4 62.7

-1.2 1.2 -2.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0

-16.6 5.6 -20.2 1.7 -3.5 -0.2

-50.3 9.4 -55.3 5.7 -9.8 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -0.6

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2 618.4 3601.6 456.6 170.7 33.9 9229

10441

12098

14169

16074

-2.1

-28.5

-85.7

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3 1159.5 532.6 266.3

2352.3 1668.6 405.9 277.8

2945.1 2201.3 438.6 305.1

3590.4 2785.1 466.0 339.3

4182.6 3320.1 493.9 368.6

-2.3 -3.0 0.6 0.2

-21.6 -24.0 1.1 1.3

-48.9 -53.5 1.3 3.3

-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1

-0.6 -0.9 0.2 0.4

-1.2 -1.6 0.3 0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.2

-1.5

-2.8

-0.1

-0.6

-1.2

289441 9634 140266 92511 9807 29928 7295

350426 8758 162549 116941 9691 46814 5673

401061 8867 176698 150966 8663 49402 6465

408455 7856 176693 163459 6480 46984 6983

412060 6466 170643 169033 6242 52419 7258

-8827 -43 -786 -652 -219 -7110 -18

-43133 -472 -5642 -17545 -604 -18672 -198

-55420 -653 -10335 -27687 -499 -15882 -365

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.6 -0.3

-9.6 -5.7 -3.1 -9.7 -8.5 -28.4 -2.8

-11.9 -9.2 -5.7 -14.1 -7.4 -23.3 -4.8

38.5 51.8

39.3 52.8

35.1 53.9

28.8 47.6

24.9 42.2

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.7 -6.2

-3.2 -0.4

-9.4 -9.0

-9.9 -12.8

Source: PRIMES

105

Europe-30: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

1091087 377317 216359 186970 206883 103557 40003 59720 67 173 3595

1200143 228042 337714 253987 250675 129725 48250 74749 1919 703 4103

1185693 158709 257162 252915 260480 256428 52614 157045 22832 2935 21002

1041368 101248 183366 199649 173542 383563 56012 248935 40608 7214 30792

947313 78829 134189 188803 83986 461506 57480 301506 53380 13705 35433

27363 -18235 -1044 -28059 -59 74760 2671 49466 6486 599 15538

-18524 -55721 -3507 -31386 -69292 141381 1725 101569 12879 1128 24080

-62106 -67886 -1040 -20293 -147776 174890 10 131597 13060 2407 27817

2.4 -10.3 -0.4 -10.0 0.0 41.2 5.3 46.0 39.7 25.6 284.4

-1.7 -35.5 -1.9 -13.6 -28.5 58.4 3.2 68.9 46.4 18.5 358.7

-6.2 -46.3 -0.8 -9.7 -63.8 61.0 0.0 77.5 32.4 21.3 365.2

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

695727 86632 490237 458354 31883 117149 1710

684878 108508 412700 384418 28282 163941 -272

842862 125792 503278 464342 38936 214036 -244

905695 94053 533240 505159 28081 278961 -560

931628 89278 554798 533579 21218 288059 -506

-80872 -25681 -33386 -33040 -346 -21666 -139

-260933 -59856 -103436 -97001 -6434 -97052 -589

-367770 -116937 -129459 -123082 -6377 -120819 -554

-8.8 -17.0 -6.2 -6.6 -0.9 -9.2 133.2

-22.4 -38.9 -16.2 -16.1 -18.6 -25.8 -2068.9

-28.3 -56.7 -18.9 -18.7 -23.1 -29.5 -1146.3

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1751588 468937 669257 301245 206883 1710 103557

1839144 345317 702393 411306 250675 -272 129725

1978716 284501 710600 466952 260480 -244 256428

1892091 195302 661635 478610 173542 -560 383563

1821019 168106 631064 476863 83986 -506 461506

-53509 -43916 -34430 -49725 -59 -139 74760

-279457 -115577 -106942 -128438 -69292 -589 141381

-429875 -184823 -130500 -141112 -147776 -554 174890

-2.6 -13.4 -4.6 -9.6 0.0 133.2 41.2

-12.9 -37.2 -13.9 -21.2 -28.5 -2068.9 58.4

-19.1 -52.4 -17.1 -22.8 -63.8 -1146.3 61.0

26.8 38.2 17.2 11.8 5.9

18.8 38.2 22.4 13.6 7.1

14.4 35.9 23.6 13.2 13.0

10.3 35.0 25.3 9.2 20.3

9.2 34.7 26.2 4.6 25.3

-1.8 -0.7 -1.8 0.3 4.0

-4.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.0 9.1

-6.4 0.8 -1.3 -5.7 12.6

-11.0 -2.0 -7.2 2.7 45.0

-27.9 -1.2 -9.5 -18.0 81.8

-41.1 2.4 -4.6 -55.2 99.0

2794856 818651 465941 1510263

3323905 971593 583374 1768938

3804258 1009601 878866 1915791

3829115 672627 1138323 2018165

3900939 325520 1341569 2233850

-187331 -229 106472 -293574

-833225 -1316699 -268575 -572766 180250 195463 -744900 -939396

-4.7 0.0 13.8 -13.3

-17.9 -28.5 18.8 -27.0

-25.2 -63.8 17.1 -29.6

394358 266510 57394 56913 10698 2842 0

425676 235114 46636 118562 22359 3004 0

439375 197946 35715 136406 49894 19414 0

423993 123865 23793 141655 105634 29046 0

421823 107743 23727 116884 139751 33718 0

-43211 -40472 -167 -36725 18617 15536 0

-106886 -110782 -1611 -66479 47740 24245 0

-151413 -179263 2617 -67168 64230 28170 0

-9.0 -17.0 -0.5 -21.2 59.5 400.6

-20.1 -47.2 -6.3 -31.9 82.5 505.0

-26.4 -62.5 12.4 -36.5 85.0 507.8

884427 713481 2 38512 132432

866713 771184 637 19379 75512

870593 769715 27598 17201 56079

857016 728699 65650 12795 49871

844090 701554 87662 12986 41888

-26358 -35477 10269 1446 -2596

-74091 -104111 33250 -1624 -1607

-83741 -128214 48349 -2493 -1382

-2.9 -4.4 59.3 9.2 -4.4

-8.0 -12.5 102.6 -11.3 -3.1

-9.0 -15.5 123.0 -16.1 -3.2 -17.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

83789

92950

91602

83719

79137

-4612

-14081

-16686

-4.8

-14.4

103762

115166

115648

119840

121819

-339

-451

-493

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1364580

1380751

1399197

-34440

-177417

-256575

-2.5

-11.4

-15.5

394004 252212 141792 290806 160718 299860

375356 236839 138517 310280 172911 361964

413986 251130 162856 343558 193491 413545

449607 259291 190316 326163 184523 420458

487527 262798 224729 313596 174480 423594

180 693 -513 -10018 -15295 -9308

-11426 -5503 -5923 -66484 -54972 -44535

-10502 -5629 -4873 -104962 -84266 -56846

0.0 0.3 -0.3 -2.8 -7.3 -2.2

-2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -16.9 -23.0 -9.6

-2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -25.1 -32.6 -11.8

137278 477192 222317 200044 68198 40359

69933 518412 266915 238509 75229 51512

58705 554399 295090 280871 80269 95246

48716 521845 305876 288683 87505 128124

41896 498957 323383 297722 91656 145583

-1104 -26530 -11604 -13555 -5415 23767

-2614 -96463 -49302 -62079 -7991 41030

-2244 -124172 -63874 -99460 -15750 48924

-1.8 -4.6 -3.8 -4.6 -6.3 33.2

-5.1 -15.6 -13.9 -17.7 -8.4 47.1

-5.1 -19.9 -16.5 -25.0 -14.7 50.6

4207.7 1515.7 163.4 807.4 551.3 300.2 869.6

4076.8 1431.7 170.4 663.2 493.5 264.5 1053.4

3983.8 1259.1 125.4 671.1 513.0 271.1 1144.1

3504.1 924.6 94.0 683.4 469.0 257.1 1075.9

3306.1 796.9 81.9 722.0 433.9 242.3 1029.1

-392.7 -262.1 -19.8 -25.0 -18.6 -17.0 -50.2

-1075.4 -624.3 -37.4 -65.7 -90.7 -48.6 -208.7

-1449.3 -890.6 -29.9 -44.1 -133.3 -68.2 -283.1

-9.0 -17.2 -13.6 -3.6 -3.5 -5.9 -4.2

-23.5 -40.3 -28.4 -8.8 -16.2 -15.9 -16.2

-30.5 -52.8 -26.7 -5.8 -23.5 -22.0 -21.6

100.0

96.9

94.7

83.3

78.6

-9.3

-25.6

-34.4

-9.0

-23.5

-30.5

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

106

Europe-30: Combined high renewables and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950 7877.3 222.4 3.24 5176 2.40 7.79 534.2 38.9

562.681 9665.6 190.3 3.27 5907 2.22 7.25 421.8 36.4

582.130 11898.8 166.3 3.40 6535 2.01 6.84 334.8 41.5

594.587 15057.8 125.7 3.18 6440 1.85 5.89 232.7 46.5

600.252 18137.4 100.4 3.03 6499 1.82 5.51 182.3 49.6

0.000 0.0 -4.5 -0.09 -322 -0.14 -0.67 -33.0 -2.8

0.000 0.0 -18.6 -0.47 -1401 -0.26 -1.81 -71.4 -5.9

0.000 0.0 -23.7 -0.72 -2194 -0.30 -2.41 -79.9 -6.7

0.0 0.0 -2.6 -2.6 -4.7 -6.5 -9.0 -9.0 -6.3

0.0 0.0 -12.9 -12.9 -17.9 -12.2 -23.5 -23.5 -11.2

0.0 0.0 -19.1 -19.1 -25.2 -14.1 -30.5 -30.5 -11.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.7 87.4 84.5 98.4

75.8 78.8 74.3 91.3

64.8 59.6 55.3 73.4

58.0 47.7 43.2 61.4

0.0 -2.3 -5.9 -2.1

-1.6 -12.1 -16.5 -7.8

-1.3 -16.0 -20.8 -8.2

0.0 -2.8 -7.3 -2.2

-2.5 -16.9 -23.0 -9.6

-2.1 -25.1 -32.6 -11.8

0.40 2.21 2.05 1.90 1.87 2.90

0.29 2.03 1.77 1.59 1.53 2.91

0.22 1.90 1.62 1.49 1.40 2.77

0.16 1.80 1.52 1.44 1.39 2.56

0.13 1.73 1.48 1.38 1.39 2.43

-0.04 -0.03 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.06 -0.10 0.01 0.12 -0.20

-0.09 -0.05 -0.06 0.03 0.19 -0.30

-14.6 -1.7 -3.6 -0.7 1.5 -2.0

-30.6 -3.3 -6.4 0.9 9.1 -7.4

-40.9 -2.8 -3.7 2.1 15.7 -11.1

769539 148992 155831 12886 195 451636 123656 210703 143723 80968 15202 0 1040

951309 142580 169754 110000 1705 527270 165788 176070 241117 69063 36093 0 4926

1039360 112689 176369 201504 11813 536985 224123 115486 260777 51523 101986 0 7212

1136749 45576 180625 269907 39184 601456 285234 121647 271501 41863 158169 0 8276

13500 0 4538 29039 0 -20077 -4002 -4557 -28320 -4535 13832 0 3502

-51879 -11530 3055 66487 6807 -116697 -13416 -69220 -94129 211 40813 0 5628

-164810 -65999 1286 73683 28370 -202151 -10014 -135856 -144832 4506 67491 0 6541

1.4 0.0 2.7 35.9 0.0 -3.7 -2.4 -2.5 -10.5 -6.2 62.1

-4.8 -9.3 1.8 49.2 136.0 -17.9 -5.6 -37.5 -26.5 0.4 66.7

-12.7 -59.2 0.7 37.6 262.3 -25.2 -3.4 -52.8 -34.8 12.1 74.4

246.0

355.1

376.8

35.7 49.3 14.0 48.9 29.2 19.6

37.5 45.7 18.4 55.3 26.5 28.8

40.9 42.1 27.4 62.2 17.6 44.6

45.5 39.2 35.2 63.0 8.3 54.7

-1.9 -2.9 1.0 8.1 1.2 6.8

-3.8 -6.7 5.9 15.7 -2.6 18.3

-2.1 -6.6 10.9 16.4 -8.9 25.3

-4.8 -6.0 6.0 17.1 4.9 31.1

-8.5 -13.8 27.8 33.7 -13.0 69.4

-4.3 -14.4 44.8 35.3 -51.5 86.2

5925.5 596.9 4530.1 443.8 316.3 38.4

7097.1 628.1 5452.1 489.1 481.6 46.2

8471.2 640.0 6562.2 540.5 671.9 56.5

9678.9 624.8 7550.4 596.4 843.1 64.2

-1.2 1.3 -2.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0

-16.9 5.6 -20.5 1.6 -3.5 -0.2

-50.9 9.5 -55.8 5.8 -9.9 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -0.6

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5 625.6 3720.2 473.5 178.7 34.5 9320

10531

12192

14247

16125

-2.1

-28.4

-84.7

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8 1179.2 544.1 303.5

2447.9 1705.6 419.3 323.0

3057.6 2252.7 454.4 350.5

3721.3 2854.2 482.4 384.8

4326.6 3405.0 510.5 411.1

-2.3 -3.1 0.6 0.1

-22.3 -24.7 1.1 1.4

-50.3 -55.1 1.3 3.5

-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0

-0.6 -0.9 0.2 0.4

-1.1 -1.6 0.3 0.9

257

253

257

247

239

-0.2

-1.5

-2.8

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860 9802 145794 94266 10142 31627 8229

361964 8917 168062 119351 10079 49160 6394

413545 9044 182467 154314 9052 51471 7198

420458 8019 181963 167292 6776 48713 7696

423594 6608 175422 173058 6511 54088 7906

-9308 -44 -813 -672 -228 -7532 -19

-44535 -481 -5806 -18031 -632 -19373 -213

-56846 -663 -10488 -28397 -518 -16391 -388

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.8 -0.3

-9.6 -5.7 -3.1 -9.7 -8.5 -28.5 -2.7

-11.8 -9.1 -5.6 -14.1 -7.4 -23.3 -4.7

38.9 51.4

39.6 52.0

35.3 53.3

28.9 47.2

25.0 41.9

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.6

-2.7 -6.1

-3.3 -0.4

-9.4 -9.0

-9.8 -12.8

Source: PRIMES

107

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers. Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km. Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions EU15: EU15 Member States EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania EU28: EU27 + Turkey Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) Mtoe: million toe GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

108

APPENDIX 5: “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case results Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

109

EU25: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

877543 351650 120396 139723 196920 68855 23391 42151 67 145 3101

898598 204139 163631 196665 237664 96499 28982 61865 1913 417 3322

878214 138557 116356 167751 248776 206774 31545 138261 21707 2122 13138

701347 85220 51384 97498 175939 291306 33517 199626 35659 3525 18979

614564 61908 42921 78791 86147 344797 34005 234662 47511 5423 23196

41797 -15970 -823 -4428 0 63018 1667 45854 5921 632 8944

-5174 -45862 -1575 -852 -52699 95813 1314 70434 9418 778 13868

-70539 -58289 -528 -1015 -124661 113955 124 85782 9569 1029 17450

5.0 -10.3 -0.7 -2.6 0.0 43.8 5.6 49.6 37.5 42.4 213.3

-0.7 -35.0 -3.0 -0.9 -23.0 49.0 4.1 54.5 35.9 28.3 271.4

-10.3 -48.5 -1.2 -1.3 -59.1 49.4 0.4 57.6 25.2 23.4 303.7

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

711300 75449 510017 479112 30905 123653 2181

801061 94307 518147 496826 21321 186463 2144

932898 108696 569458 531554 37904 252639 2105

994077 78835 589332 561467 27865 324268 1643

964342 73034 562527 540677 21850 326966 1815

-91377 -23591 -30240 -29803 -437 -37414 -131

-237614 -49560 -80534 -75208 -5326 -107042 -479

-301225 -99885 -89923 -85573 -4349 -111031 -387

-8.9 -17.8 -5.0 -5.3 -1.1 -12.9 -5.9

-19.3 -38.6 -12.0 -11.8 -16.0 -24.8 -22.6

-23.8 -57.8 -13.8 -13.7 -16.6 -25.3 -17.6

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1556194 431944 595746 260548 196920 2181 68855

1653841 306538 634711 376284 237664 2144 96499

1762952 247253 637655 420389 248776 2105 206774

1642548 164055 587840 421765 175939 1643 291306

1523473 134942 550016 405756 86147 1815 344797

-49580 -39562 -31063 -41842 0 -131 63018

-242788 -95421 -82108 -107894 -52699 -479 95813

-371764 -158174 -90450 -112046 -124661 -387 113955

-2.7 -13.8 -4.6 -9.1 0.0 -5.9 43.8

-12.9 -36.8 -12.3 -20.4 -23.0 -22.6 49.0

-19.6 -54.0 -14.1 -21.6 -59.1 -17.6 49.4

27.8 38.3 16.7 12.7 4.4

18.5 38.4 22.8 14.4 5.8

14.0 36.2 23.8 14.1 11.7

10.0 35.8 25.7 10.7 17.7

8.9 36.1 26.6 5.7 22.6

-1.8 -0.7 -1.7 0.4 3.8

-3.8 0.3 -2.4 -1.4 7.4

-6.6 2.3 -0.7 -5.5 10.5

-11.4 -2.0 -6.5 2.8 47.9

-27.4 0.7 -8.6 -11.7 71.0

-42.7 6.8 -2.5 -49.2 85.8

2455674 780056 272788 1402830

2900835 921193 359249 1620392

3318725 964265 620782 1733678

3269439 681942 811980 1775517

3241593 333901 968297 1939395

-164461 0 88238 -252698

-736336 -1125006 -204265 -483191 128129 124574 -660201 -766389

-4.7 0.0 16.6 -12.7

-18.4 -23.0 18.7 -27.1

-25.8 -59.1 14.8 -28.3

355362 246377 48954 47057 10201 2774 0

385987 214488 41870 105480 21211 2939 0

391799 178223 31880 121925 47139 12632 0

365632 106106 21638 126764 92597 18527 0

361270 87017 22503 106109 122841 22800 0

-40442 -36727 246 -30901 17992 8948 0

-97139 -92396 -1673 -55967 38978 13920 0

-128768 -153294 2708 -49139 53417 17539 0

-9.4 -17.1 0.8 -20.2 61.7 242.8

-21.0 -46.5 -7.2 -30.6 72.7 302.1

-26.3 -63.8 13.7 -31.7 76.9 333.4

797634 642275 2 31035 124322

796450 710448 637 17261 68104

790375 697019 26912 16807 49637

757863 654465 47096 11793 44509

723538 619191 56198 10690 37459

-22521 -31903 10120 1557 -2295

-66232 -79560 16092 -2024 -740

-73527 -88912 19823 -4044 -394

-2.8 -4.4 60.3 10.2 -4.4

-8.0 -10.8 51.9 -14.6 -1.6

-9.2 -12.6 54.5 -27.4 -1.0 -17.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

77779

70280

64868

-3719

-10886

-13266

-4.6

-13.4

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107538

110826

111775

-309

-374

-390

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1021913

1095359

1208029

1184149

1156212

-29978

-154355

-214241

-2.4

-11.5

-15.6

341087 216809 124278 261006 146622 273198

330062 211616 118446 273302 158975 333020

356461 221303 135158 303199 175357 373011

373222 223826 149396 278669 164456 367801

384467 220864 163603 260050 153202 358493

40 543 -503 -8766 -13130 -8122

-9180 -4566 -4614 -60072 -47399 -37704

-7098 -4068 -3030 -91235 -72114 -43794

0.0 0.2 -0.4 -2.8 -7.0 -2.1

-2.4 -2.0 -3.0 -17.7 -22.4 -9.3

-1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -26.0 -32.0 -10.9

123937 428121 200242 176468 63092 30053

56633 468312 251885 211352 68712 38465

44503 493212 269026 247364 76089 77834

37950 457819 267478 247767 80372 92764

31925 427002 268496 248916 82887 96986

-699 -24130 -10148 -11946 -4088 21032

-1470 -72077 -42248 -55150 -7319 23909

-2099 -84835 -52901 -85127 -12438 23160

-1.5 -4.7 -3.6 -4.6 -5.1 37.0

-3.7 -13.6 -13.6 -18.2 -8.3 34.7

-6.2 -16.6 -16.5 -25.5 -13.0 31.4

3776.1 1362.6 141.5 698.9 506.1 274.2 792.7

3674.1 1294.9 144.9 567.7 452.1 244.6 969.9

3535.0 1130.8 106.5 557.9 465.0 246.5 1028.3

3055.0 809.9 83.7 549.1 412.6 232.9 966.6

2797.8 681.4 71.2 537.2 371.0 221.2 915.9

-346.9 -231.0 -17.4 -19.1 -17.7 -15.3 -46.4

-873.6 -523.3 -30.2 -46.1 -82.2 -42.9 -148.9

-1157.2 -742.6 -28.5 -32.6 -115.7 -60.7 -177.0

-8.9 -17.0 -14.1 -3.3 -3.7 -5.8 -4.3

-22.2 -39.3 -26.5 -7.7 -16.6 -15.5 -13.3

-29.3 -52.2 -28.6 -5.7 -23.8 -21.5 -16.2

100.0

97.3

93.6

80.9

74.1

-9.2

-23.1

-30.6

-8.9

-22.2

-29.3

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

110

EU25: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788 7294.7 213.3 3.53 5571 2.43 8.57 517.7 44.7

452.915 8947.0 184.8 3.65 6405 2.22 8.11 410.7 47.2

464.054 10946.8 161.0 3.80 7152 2.01 7.62 322.9 51.5

469.270 13656.3 120.3 3.50 6967 1.86 6.51 223.7 58.6

469.365 16051.4 94.9 3.25 6906 1.84 5.96 174.3 61.1

0.000 0.0 -4.5 -0.11 -354 -0.14 -0.75 -31.7 -3.5

0.000 0.0 -17.8 -0.52 -1569 -0.22 -1.86 -64.0 -4.9

0.000 0.0 -23.2 -0.79 -2397 -0.25 -2.47 -72.1 -3.8

0.0 0.0 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7 -6.4 -8.9 -8.9 -6.4

0.0 0.0 -12.9 -12.9 -18.4 -10.7 -22.2 -22.2 -7.7

0.0 0.0 -19.6 -19.6 -25.8 -12.0 -29.3 -29.3 -5.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

83.8 85.8 84.9 99.4

77.3 78.1 74.0 91.0

65.1 58.1 54.8 71.9

57.5 46.3 43.1 59.6

0.0 -2.3 -5.5 -2.0

-1.6 -12.5 -15.8 -7.4

-1.1 -16.2 -20.3 -7.3

0.0 -2.8 -7.0 -2.1

-2.4 -17.7 -22.4 -9.3

-1.8 -26.0 -32.0 -10.9

0.41 2.22 2.05 1.94 1.87 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.72 1.65 1.54 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.57 1.53 1.41 2.76

0.16 1.83 1.47 1.48 1.42 2.63

0.14 1.77 1.40 1.43 1.44 2.55

-0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.03 -0.09 0.02 0.11 -0.12

-0.09 -0.01 -0.06 0.04 0.19 -0.16

-14.4 -1.7 -3.3 -0.9 1.2 -2.2

-29.0 -1.5 -5.5 1.4 8.8 -4.5

-39.9 -0.3 -4.0 3.0 15.4 -6.0

661750 141082 97168 12785 176 410539 112958 188879 131875 74302 14462 0 1022

820334 136430 106856 104728 1658 470662 148288 152362 219613 61643 33631 0 3413

869160 105839 110451 173376 7027 472466 189667 92404 236128 47824 91251 0 4859

927423 41691 112533 233662 18101 521435 244767 98805 241079 39688 136045 0 5818

9827 0 2922 26336 0 -19432 -2582 -4175 -25826 -4406 12918 0 2057

-73421 -11097 1834 45753 2177 -112088 -19294 -64402 -85080 -106 34158 0 3342

-168869 -59525 332 50731 7737 -168145 -3232 -112430 -119055 4723 54443 0 4175

1.2 0.0 2.8 33.6 0.0 -4.0 -1.7 -2.7 -10.5 -6.7 62.4

-7.8 -9.5 1.7 35.8 44.9 -19.2 -9.2 -41.1 -26.5 -0.2 59.8

-15.4 -58.8 0.3 27.7 74.7 -24.4 -1.3 -53.2 -33.1 13.5 66.7

151.6

220.3

254.1

36.1 50.0 14.5 46.5 31.8 14.7

38.1 46.2 19.3 53.7 29.1 24.6

41.8 42.9 27.1 60.8 20.9 39.9

46.2 39.9 36.1 61.3 10.3 51.0

-1.5 -2.9 1.4 7.9 1.4 6.6

-3.5 -5.6 5.3 15.2 -1.3 16.5

-1.3 -5.6 11.8 15.0 -8.4 23.4

-3.7 -5.9 7.9 17.4 5.0 36.3

-7.7 -11.5 24.2 33.4 -5.7 70.3

-2.8 -12.2 48.7 32.5 -45.0 85.0

5466.3 480.1 4253.1 402.7 296.9 33.6

6448.0 496.0 5015.3 445.7 451.2 39.7

7390.0 483.7 5768.3 478.8 613.8 45.4

8100.4 472.0 6329.0 507.6 742.5 49.3

-1.4 1.0 -1.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.0

-12.1 3.2 -12.5 0.3 -2.9 -0.1

-29.8 5.3 -29.5 2.0 -7.3 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2

-0.4 1.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4640.8 504.1 3529.3 411.9 166.3 29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13895

15748

17258

-3.0

-25.7

-63.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1753.9 1034.1 461.7 258.1

2131.5 1486.3 374.2 271.0

2579.7 1889.4 401.0 289.2

3034.2 2296.1 421.4 316.8

3402.6 2624.9 439.4 338.3

-2.5 -1.7 -1.0 0.2

-14.5 -15.6 -0.1 1.2

-29.3 -32.4 0.5 2.7

-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1

-0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.4

-0.9 -1.2 0.1 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

273198 7841 138202 82444 9066 28932 6714

333020 7018 158349 108068 8897 45320 5368

373011 6983 169440 135129 8098 47564 5796

367801 5904 163758 142363 5976 43750 6050

358493 4924 152452 143010 5553 46450 6104

-8122 -37 -737 -519 -209 -6610 -11

-37704 -370 -5143 -14468 -541 -17027 -155

-43794 -397 -7399 -21376 -466 -13908 -248

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.2 -0.2

-9.3 -5.9 -3.0 -9.2 -8.3 -28.0 -2.5

-10.9 -7.5 -4.6 -13.0 -7.7 -23.0 -3.9

39.3 51.7

39.9 53.9

35.8 55.1

29.6 49.1

25.8 43.9

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.6

-2.6 -6.0

-3.1 -0.3

-9.3 -8.6

-9.2 -12.0

Source: PRIMES

111

EU15: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

707946 210737 117782 132975 181439 65014 22275 39426 67 145 3101

761643 100172 160552 190581 222846 87491 27627 54257 1912 381 3315

741627 54086 114008 162008 231522 180003 29822 116323 20655 1878 11324

579540 38998 49288 92431 158352 240472 31659 155881 33595 3170 16167

497299 29048 41107 74066 73224 279853 32055 178707 44331 4914 19845

31990 -14172 -809 -4412 0 51384 1406 37005 5274 553 7146

-959 -20998 -1540 -604 -48810 70993 1116 49658 8416 725 11078

-54434 -29569 -490 -950 -104362 80937 41 56301 9424 1048 14124

4.5 -20.8 -0.7 -2.7 0.0 40.0 4.9 46.7 34.3 41.7 171.0

-0.2 -35.0 -3.0 -0.6 -23.6 41.9 3.7 46.7 33.4 29.7 217.7

-9.9 -50.4 -1.2 -1.3 -58.8 40.7 0.1 46.0 27.0 27.1 246.9

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

643284 89663 458793 435365 23428 92495 2333

741591 110142 472543 455606 16937 155262 3644

849580 116850 516400 487404 28996 212516 3814

891972 75780 531915 513341 18574 280648 3629

856373 69944 501626 489531 12095 279916 4886

-74845 -18231 -26359 -26428 69 -30246 -9

-202928 -47698 -71648 -67791 -3857 -83437 -145

-254470 -90009 -77792 -75370 -2421 -86594 -75

-8.1 -13.5 -4.9 -5.1 0.2 -12.5 -0.2

-18.5 -38.6 -11.9 -11.7 -17.2 -22.9 -3.8

-22.9 -56.3 -13.4 -13.3 -16.7 -23.6 -1.5

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1319965 303612 544159 223408 181439 2333 65014

1456936 215739 587926 339289 222846 3644 87491

1544189 170936 583391 374523 231522 3814 180003

1419910 114777 529601 373079 158352 3629 240472

1299596 98993 488657 353982 73224 4886 279853

-42856 -32403 -27169 -34658 0 -9 51384

-203887 -68696 -73188 -84042 -48810 -145 70993

-308904 -119578 -78282 -87545 -104362 -75 80937

-2.7 -15.9 -4.4 -8.5 0.0 -0.2 40.0

-12.6 -37.4 -12.1 -18.4 -23.6 -3.8 41.9

-19.2 -54.7 -13.8 -19.8 -58.8 -1.5 40.7

23.0 41.2 16.9 13.7 4.9

14.8 40.4 23.3 15.3 6.0

11.1 37.8 24.3 15.0 11.7

8.1 37.3 26.3 11.2 16.9

7.6 37.6 27.2 5.6 21.5

-1.7 -0.7 -1.5 0.4 3.6

-3.2 0.2 -1.9 -1.6 6.5

-6.0 2.4 -0.2 -5.4 9.2

-13.6 -1.8 -5.9 2.8 43.8

-28.5 0.5 -6.7 -12.6 62.3

-43.9 6.7 -0.8 -49.0 74.1

2138940 720059 259810 1159070

2576502 863760 343478 1369264

2940705 897389 588489 1454827

2859496 613775 766198 1479523

2801348 283815 907984 1609549

-142044 0 77674 -219718

-625246 -189186 114175 -550234

-934097 -404504 121917 -651510

-4.6 0.0 15.2 -13.1

-17.9 -23.6 17.5 -27.1

-25.0 -58.8 15.5 -28.8

282186 184170 43718 41697 9827 2774 0

319336 158097 38588 99188 20524 2939 0

319996 126309 29152 114346 39347 10841 0

298030 75391 19663 120769 66466 15743 0

295238 65558 20824 101949 87431 19476 0

-35984 -30046 453 -26589 13041 7157 0

-79194 -67414 -1296 -43084 21465 11135 0

-110324 -118628 3351 -37886 28624 14215 0

-10.1 -19.2 1.6 -18.9 49.6 194.2

-21.0 -47.2 -6.2 -26.3 47.7 241.7

-27.2 -64.4 19.2 -27.1 48.7 270.2

704402 595036 2 13085 96279

725664 665476 604 8717 50868

720320 649606 24682 8610 37421

685565 603170 42668 6226 33501

648858 565023 50494 5602 27740

-19629 -28480 9157 1874 -2180

-57287 -72016 14474 765 -510

-60963 -78589 17974 -45 -302

-2.7 -4.2 59.0 27.8 -5.5

-7.7 -10.7 51.3 14.0 -1.5

-8.6 -12.2 55.3 -0.8 -1.1 -17.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

65780

58530

53118

-3064

-8991

-11090

-4.5

-13.3

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96788

97458

96447

-274

-338

-336

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

866453

970663

1061077

1027008

991068

-25658

-128097

-172858

-2.4

-11.1

-14.9

272481 182306 90175 220020 121346 252606

284781 182967 101814 238404 137376 310102

306803 192035 114768 261642 151097 341535

316038 191797 124240 236468 140704 333798

320812 187195 133617 218066 129582 322608

34 520 -486 -7479 -10524 -7689

-7020 -3493 -3527 -50530 -36513 -34034

-5321 -3059 -2262 -75048 -54907 -37583

0.0 0.3 -0.4 -2.8 -6.5 -2.2

-2.2 -1.8 -2.8 -17.6 -20.6 -9.3

-1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -25.6 -29.8 -10.4

79761 393325 173014 155929 36558 27865

35330 434547 226415 191711 50708 31953

27850 450978 235978 222907 56867 66497

24430 412275 230095 219951 61797 78461

20773 379163 227395 219046 63975 80715

-774 -22159 -8688 -10257 -3024 19244

-885 -64981 -35397 -46656 -2959 22782

-839 -74692 -43705 -70050 -5015 21443

-2.7 -4.7 -3.6 -4.4 -5.0 40.7

-3.5 -13.6 -13.3 -17.5 -4.6 40.9

-3.9 -16.5 -16.1 -24.2 -7.3 36.2

3068.4 1021.1 127.2 545.2 419.7 220.7 734.5

3127.0 1014.7 127.0 471.6 401.5 207.4 904.8

3000.3 876.7 98.6 457.3 411.7 213.3 942.8

2615.4 657.9 76.2 439.6 363.5 199.7 878.5

2398.6 575.8 63.4 422.9 325.4 185.9 825.2

-290.6 -187.0 -14.1 -18.5 -15.5 -12.4 -43.0

-685.6 -378.6 -26.5 -41.1 -71.3 -33.6 -134.5

-912.4 -556.9 -26.0 -28.3 -99.8 -46.8 -154.6

-8.8 -17.6 -12.5 -3.9 -3.6 -5.5 -4.4

-20.8 -36.5 -25.8 -8.5 -16.4 -14.4 -13.3

-27.6 -49.2 -29.1 -6.3 -23.5 -20.1 -15.8

100.0

101.9

97.8

85.2

78.2

-9.5

-22.3

-29.7

-8.8

-20.8

-27.6

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

112

EU15: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749 6981.9 189.1 3.61 5848 2.32 8.39 439.5 47.5

378.062 8572.2 170.0 3.85 6815 2.15 8.27 364.8 49.5

390.652 10391.5 148.6 3.95 7528 1.94 7.68 288.7 53.4

397.458 12835.7 110.6 3.57 7194 1.84 6.58 203.8 60.6

398.737 14948.8 86.9 3.26 7026 1.85 6.02 160.5 63.3

0.000 0.0 -4.1 -0.11 -364 -0.13 -0.74 -28.0 -3.2

0.000 0.0 -15.9 -0.51 -1573 -0.19 -1.73 -53.4 -4.7

0.000 0.0 -20.7 -0.77 -2343 -0.21 -2.29 -61.0 -3.6

0.0 0.0 -2.7 -2.7 -4.6 -6.3 -8.8 -8.8 -5.6

0.0 0.0 -12.6 -12.6 -17.9 -9.4 -20.8 -20.8 -7.2

0.0 0.0 -19.2 -19.2 -25.0 -10.3 -27.6 -27.6 -5.3

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

90.9 88.8 88.7 100.0

85.3 80.8 77.6 90.8

71.8 59.7 57.5 71.9

63.1 47.5 45.1 59.6

0.0 -2.3 -5.4 -2.0

-1.6 -12.8 -14.9 -7.3

-1.0 -16.4 -19.1 -6.9

0.0 -2.8 -6.5 -2.2

-2.2 -17.6 -20.6 -9.3

-1.6 -25.6 -29.8 -10.4

0.39 2.22 2.00 1.91 1.82 2.91

0.27 2.05 1.66 1.68 1.51 2.92

0.20 1.91 1.49 1.57 1.41 2.76

0.16 1.83 1.39 1.54 1.42 2.63

0.14 1.78 1.32 1.49 1.43 2.56

-0.04 -0.04 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.06 -0.04 -0.10 0.02 0.10 -0.12

-0.08 -0.02 -0.07 0.04 0.17 -0.16

-15.2 -1.9 -3.9 -0.9 1.1 -2.2

-26.4 -2.1 -6.5 1.5 7.8 -4.4

-36.9 -1.1 -4.7 2.9 13.8 -6.0

588083 131758 90794 12769 176 352586 88543 144882 125804 67470 13407 0 1022

733411 127644 99471 98838 1645 405813 122181 113327 208661 54574 26235 0 3017

771232 97053 102706 162297 6890 402287 160245 68770 223210 43216 62848 0 4243

802293 35169 104524 216862 17564 428174 198118 75625 220727 36210 90529 0 5083

9241 0 2357 22706 0 -15822 -2518 -3194 -19291 -4407 9409 0 1661

-56858 -9145 1438 40966 2177 -92294 -15304 -48379 -66413 1487 18284 0 2726

-127261 -49499 128 50052 7737 -135679 4105 -78560 -94652 6794 27300 0 3440

1.3 0.0 2.4 29.8 0.0 -3.8 -2.0 -2.7 -8.5 -7.5 55.9

-6.9 -8.6 1.4 33.8 46.2 -18.7 -8.7 -41.3 -22.9 3.6 41.0

-13.7 -58.5 0.1 30.0 78.7 -24.1 2.1 -51.0 -30.0 23.1 43.2

122.4

179.7

209.3

36.9 50.0 13.4 49.4 33.5 15.9

39.1 45.8 18.0 56.0 30.5 25.5

42.7 42.3 26.2 60.4 21.5 38.9

46.9 39.9 34.4 60.0 10.1 49.8

-1.4 -2.8 1.3 7.5 1.4 6.1

-3.6 -5.7 5.8 12.5 -1.6 14.1

-1.1 -6.0 12.8 12.2 -8.3 20.5

-3.4 -5.8 7.5 15.5 4.8 31.6

-7.7 -11.9 28.2 26.2 -6.8 56.8

-2.2 -13.1 59.1 25.6 -45.0 70.0

4997.7 401.8 3928.0 351.3 283.6 33.0

5831.0 423.3 4544.9 395.7 428.1 39.1

6636.1 416.5 5164.4 430.1 580.4 44.7

7205.6 408.7 5588.8 459.5 700.1 48.5

-1.0 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0

-9.8 2.5 -10.0 0.5 -2.7 -0.1

-23.2 4.2 -22.9 2.4 -6.7 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2

-0.3 1.0 -0.4 0.5 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4130.1 369.0 3265.7 309.8 157.3 28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14926

16696

18071

-2.5

-24.6

-58.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1419.2 914.2 254.9 250.1

1825.6 1309.3 249.5 266.8

2141.5 1589.1 267.4 284.9

2480.9 1888.2 280.4 312.3

2755.3 2132.3 289.4 333.7

-1.6 -1.1 -0.7 0.2

-10.5 -11.5 -0.3 1.2

-20.9 -24.2 0.6 2.6

-0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1

-0.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.4

-0.8 -1.1 0.2 0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.2

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

252606 6250 129911 75351 6970 27742 6383

310102 5860 146708 100615 7579 44025 5314

341535 5925 154543 122725 6937 45666 5740

333798 5048 147747 127880 5121 42012 5990

322608 4259 135981 127035 4811 44478 6043

-7689 -32 -639 -460 -176 -6370 -11

-34034 -309 -4422 -12611 -424 -16114 -154

-37583 -295 -4754 -18678 -322 -13288 -246

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 -12.2 -0.2

-9.3 -5.8 -2.9 -9.0 -7.6 -27.7 -2.5

-10.4 -6.5 -3.4 -12.8 -6.3 -23.0 -3.9

41.2 58.0

40.7 58.5

36.4 60.3

30.1 54.0

26.3 48.3

-1.2 -0.2

-3.1 -4.9

-2.5 -6.5

-3.3 -0.3

-9.4 -8.4

-8.6 -11.8

Source: PRIMES

113

NMS: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

169598 140913 2614 6749 15481 3841 1116 2725 0 0 0

136955 103966 3079 6084 14818 9008 1355 7609 1 35 8

136587 84471 2347 5743 17254 26771 1723 21938 1052 243 1814

121807 46223 2096 5067 17587 50834 1858 43745 2064 354 2812

117265 32860 1814 4724 12922 64945 1950 55955 3179 509 3351

9808 -1798 -13 -15 0 11634 261 8849 647 78 1798

-4215 -24864 -35 -247 -3890 24820 198 20777 1002 53 2791

-16105 7.7 -3.3 -12.1 -28720 -2.1 -35.0 -46.6 -38 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -65 -0.3 -4.7 -1.4 -20299 0.0 -18.1 -61.1 33018 76.9 95.4 103.4 83 17.9 11.9 4.5 29482 67.6 90.5 111.4 145 159.7 94.3 4.8 -19 47.6 17.5 -3.6 3326 11614.0 13295.0 13453.5

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

68016 -14214 51224 43747 7477 31158 -152

59470 -15836 45604 41220 4384 31202 -1500

83318 -8154 53058 44150 8908 40123 -1709

102105 3055 57416 48126 9290 43619 -1986

107969 3090 60901 51146 9755 47050 -3072

-16532 -5360 -3881 -3375 -506 -7168 -122

-34686 -1862 -8886 -7417 -1468 -23605 -334

-46755 -9876 -12131 -10203 -1928 -24436 -312

-16.6 191.9 -6.8 -7.1 -5.4 -15.2 7.7

-25.4 -37.9 -13.4 -13.4 -13.6 -35.1 20.2

-30.2 -76.2 -16.6 -16.6 -16.5 -34.2 11.3

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

236229 128332 51587 37140 15481 -152 3841

196904 90799 46785 36994 14818 -1500 9008

218763 76317 54264 45866 17254 -1709 26771

222638 49278 58239 48687 17587 -1986 50834

223878 35950 61359 51774 12922 -3072 64945

-6724 -7158 -3894 -7184 0 -122 11634

-38901 -26725 -8920 -23852 -3890 -334 24820

-62860 -38597 -12169 -24501 -20299 -312 33018

-3.0 -8.6 -6.7 -13.5 0.0 7.7 76.9

-14.9 -35.2 -13.3 -32.9 -18.1 20.2 95.4

-21.9 -51.8 -16.5 -32.1 -61.1 11.3 103.4

54.3 21.8 15.7 6.6 1.6

46.1 23.8 18.8 7.5 4.6

34.9 24.8 21.0 7.9 12.2

22.1 26.2 21.9 7.9 22.8

16.1 27.4 23.1 5.8 29.0

-2.1 -1.0 -2.6 0.2 5.5

-6.9 0.5 -5.9 -0.3 12.9

-9.9 1.8 -3.5 -5.8 17.9

-5.8 -3.8 -10.9 3.1 82.3

-23.8 1.9 -21.2 -3.8 129.6

-38.2 6.9 -13.1 -50.2 160.5

316734 59996 12978 243760

324333 57434 15771 251128

378020 66876 32292 278851

409943 68167 45782 295993

440245 50086 60314 329846

-22416 0 10564 -32980

-111091 -15079 13955 -109967

-190909 -78687 2657 -114879

-5.6 0.0 48.6 -10.6

-21.3 -18.1 43.8 -27.1

-30.2 -61.1 4.6 -25.8

73176 62206 5236 5360 374 0 0

66652 56391 3281 6292 687 0 0

71803 51913 2728 7580 7792 1791 0

67602 30715 1976 5995 26132 2785 0

66032 21459 1679 4160 35410 3324 0

-4457 -6681 -206 -4312 4951 1791 0

-17945 -24981 -378 -12883 17513 2785 0

-18444 -34666 -643 -11253 24793 3324 0

-5.8 -11.4 -7.0 -36.3 174.3

-21.0 -44.9 -16.0 -68.2 203.2

-21.8 -61.8 -27.7 -73.0 233.5

93232 47239 0 17949 28043

70786 44972 33 8544 17236

70056 47413 2230 8197 12216

72298 51294 4429 5567 11008

74680 54168 5704 5088 9719

-2892 -3423 963 -317 -116

-8945 -7544 1618 -2789 -230

-12564 -10323 1850 -3998 -92

-4.0 -6.7 76.0 -3.7 -0.9

-11.0 -12.8 57.6 -33.4 -2.0

-14.4 -16.0 48.0 -44.0 -0.9 -15.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

11998

11750

11750

-655

-1895

-2177

-5.2

-13.9

10089

10135

10750

13368

15328

-35

-35

-54

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

146951

157141

165145

-4320

-26258

-41383

-2.9

-14.3

-20.0

68606 34503 34103 40986 25276 20592

45281 28649 16632 34898 21599 22917

49658 29269 20389 41558 24260 31476

57185 32029 25156 42202 23752 34003

63655 33670 29986 41984 23620 35885

6 23 -17 -1287 -2606 -434

-2160 -1073 -1088 -9542 -10886 -3670

-1777 -1009 -768 -16188 -17207 -6211

0.0 0.1 -0.1 -3.0 -9.7 -1.4

-3.6 -3.2 -4.1 -18.4 -31.4 -9.7

-2.7 -2.9 -2.5 -27.8 -42.1 -14.8

44176 34795 27229 20539 26534 2188

21303 33764 25471 19641 18005 6512

16652 42235 33048 24457 19222 11337

13520 45544 37382 27817 18575 14303

11152 47839 41101 29870 18911 16270

75 -1970 -1460 -1689 -1064 1788

-585 -7096 -6851 -8494 -4360 1128

-1260 -10143 -9196 -15077 -7423 1716

0.5 -4.5 -4.2 -6.5 -5.2 18.7

-4.1 -13.5 -15.5 -23.4 -19.0 8.6

-10.2 -17.5 -18.3 -33.5 -28.2 11.8

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

707.7 341.5 14.3 153.7 86.4 53.5 58.2

547.1 280.2 17.9 96.1 50.6 37.2 65.1

534.7 254.2 7.9 100.6 53.3 33.2 85.5

439.5 152.0 7.5 109.5 49.2 33.3 88.1

399.2 105.6 7.7 114.3 45.6 35.3 90.7

-56.3 -44.0 -3.3 -0.6 -2.1 -2.9 -3.4

-188.0 -144.7 -3.7 -5.0 -10.9 -9.3 -14.4

-244.8 -185.8 -2.4 -4.3 -15.9 -13.9 -22.4

-9.5 -14.8 -29.4 -0.6 -3.9 -8.1 -3.8

-30.0 -48.8 -33.3 -4.4 -18.1 -21.8 -14.0

-38.0 -63.7 -24.1 -3.6 -25.9 -28.3 -19.8

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

75.6

62.1

56.4

-8.0

-26.6

-34.6

-9.5

-30.0

-38.0

Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other

Source: PRIMES

114

NMS: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039 312.8 755.2 3.15 4221 3.00 9.43 2262.2 28.7

74.853 374.8 525.3 2.63 4333 2.78 7.31 1459.6 30.1

73.401 555.3 393.9 2.98 5150 2.44 7.28 962.9 37.9

71.813 820.6 271.3 3.10 5708 1.97 6.12 535.6 45.6

70.628 1102.7 203.0 3.17 6233 1.78 5.65 362.1 47.9

0.000 0.0 -12.1 -0.09 -305 -0.18 -0.77 -101.4 -6.2

0.000 0.0 -47.4 -0.54 -1547 -0.43 -2.62 -229.1 -6.4

0.000 0.0 -57.0 -0.89 -2703 -0.46 -3.47 -222.0 -5.8

0.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.6 -6.7 -9.5 -9.5 -14.0

0.0 0.0 -14.9 -14.9 -21.3 -17.7 -30.0 -30.0 -12.4

0.0 0.0 -21.9 -21.9 -30.2 -20.6 -38.0 -38.0 -10.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

52.9 70.0 65.9 92.9

35.2 55.3 49.8 86.1

27.2 37.6 32.4 62.9

23.3 27.7 23.2 49.4

0.0 -1.7 -5.3 -1.2

-1.0 -8.5 -14.8 -6.8

-0.7 -10.7 -16.9 -8.6

0.0 -3.0 -9.7 -1.4

-3.6 -18.4 -31.4 -9.7

-2.7 -27.8 -42.1 -14.8

0.50 2.26 2.24 2.11 2.12 2.83

0.46 2.00 2.12 1.45 1.72 2.84

0.36 1.85 2.03 1.28 1.37 2.72

0.21 1.78 1.92 1.16 1.40 2.59

0.13 1.73 1.80 1.09 1.49 2.53

-0.05 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 -0.07

-0.12 0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.17 -0.13

-0.14 0.07 -0.02 0.03 0.29 -0.16

-11.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 1.8 -2.5

-37.6 2.3 -0.8 0.4 14.1 -4.7

-51.4 4.4 -1.0 2.7 23.9 -5.9

73667 9324 6374 16 0 57953 24415 43996 6071 6832 1055 0 0

86923 8786 7385 5890 13 64849 26107 39035 10952 7070 7396 0 396

97927 8786 7745 11080 138 70179 29422 23634 12918 4608 28404 0 616

125130 6522 8009 16801 537 93261 46649 23180 20351 3478 45516 0 735

585 0 565 3631 0 -3610 -64 -981 -6534 1 3508 0 396

-16563 -1952 395 4787 0 -19794 -3990 -16023 -18667 -1594 15874 0 616

-41609 -10026 204 679 0 -32465 -7337 -33870 -24403 -2072 27144 0 735

0.7 0.0 8.3 160.7 0.0 -5.3 -0.2 -2.5 -37.4 0.0 90.2

-14.5 -18.2 5.4 76.1 0.0 -22.0 -11.9 -40.4 -59.1 -25.7 126.7

-25.0 -60.6 2.6 4.2 0.0 -25.8 -13.6 -59.4 -54.5 -37.3 147.7

32.4 50.3 23.5 23.3 17.7 5.6

33.4 49.6 29.3 35.7 17.7 18.0

37.7 47.8 33.3 63.7 16.6 47.0

43.0 40.2 46.7 70.0 11.4 58.7

-1.8 -3.3 2.6 10.9 1.0 9.9

-3.2 -4.2 2.3 33.3 0.7 32.7

-2.3 -3.0 6.8 32.2 -9.0 41.2

-5.0 -6.2 9.8 44.1 5.9 123.2

-7.7 -8.0 7.5 109.9 4.1 227.6

-5.1 -7.1 17.1 85.1 -44.2 236.4

468.6 78.3 325.1 51.4 13.3 0.6

617.0 72.7 470.4 50.0 23.2 0.7

753.9 67.2 603.9 48.7 33.4 0.7

894.8 63.3 740.2 48.1 42.4 0.8

-0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0

-2.3 0.6 -2.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0

-6.6 1.0 -6.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0

-0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0

-0.3 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2

-0.7 1.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -0.5

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

510.7 135.1 263.6 102.1 9.0 0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8405

10498

12669

-5.3

-31.6

-93.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

334.6 119.9 206.8 7.9

305.9 177.1 124.7 4.2

438.2 300.3 133.6 4.3

553.4 407.9 141.0 4.5

647.3 492.7 150.0 4.6

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0

-3.9 -4.2 0.2 0.0

-8.4 -8.2 -0.2 0.1

-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2

-0.7 -1.0 0.1 0.6

-1.3 -1.6 -0.1 1.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

789

674

587

-1.6

-4.8

-7.6

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

20592 1591 8290 7093 2096 1190 331

22917 1159 11641 7453 1317 1294 54

31476 1059 14897 12405 1161 1898 56

34003 856 16010 14483 856 1738 60

35885 665 16471 15974 742 1972 61

-434 -5 -97 -59 -33 -240 0

-3670 -61 -721 -1857 -118 -912 -1

-6211 -102 -2645 -2698 -144 -620 -2

-1.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -2.7 -11.2 -0.1

-9.7 -6.6 -4.3 -11.4 -12.1 -34.4 -2.0

-14.8 -13.3 -13.8 -14.4 -16.2 -23.9 -3.9

23.9 25.0

31.4 26.7

29.7 30.0

25.1 27.3

21.6 25.5

-0.6 -0.1

-2.2 -3.3

-3.6 -4.0

-1.8 -0.4

-8.2 -10.7

-14.3 -13.5

Source: PRIMES

115

EU27: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

928078 364706 128402 162645 200702 71623 25013 43297 67 145 3101

937145 214324 170011 207644 243761 101405 30483 65264 1913 417 3329

921475 149806 122602 180188 253537 215342 33747 143836 21849 2155 13755

745368 95701 57545 108674 182144 301304 35931 205824 35858 3683 20008

659716 73213 49126 88735 92355 356287 36636 241841 47831 5663 24316

43287 -16070 -823 -4717 0 64896 2030 46683 6013 641 9529

-5701 -47288 -1627 -852 -53548 97614 1555 71002 9457 810 14789

-72929 -58311 -528 -1015 -128952 115877 225 86476 9700 1042 18434

4.9 -9.7 -0.7 -2.6 0.0 43.1 6.4 48.1 38.0 42.3 225.5

-0.8 -33.1 -2.7 -0.8 -22.7 47.9 4.5 52.7 35.8 28.2 283.4

-10.0 -44.3 -1.1 -1.1 -58.3 48.2 0.6 55.7 25.4 22.6 313.4

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

749474 81418 529724 503451 26273 135011 3321

817569 98469 525771 507009 18762 191643 1687

955723 114336 581141 546639 34502 258762 1484

1024437 84481 603396 579376 24020 335454 1106

1003707 81423 578897 561349 17548 342034 1353

-92821 -23642 -31088 -30785 -303 -37960 -132

-247378 -53058 -83047 -78213 -4834 -110793 -480

-311621 -103250 -93480 -89822 -3658 -114503 -388

-8.9 -17.1 -5.1 -5.3 -0.9 -12.8 -8.2

-19.5 -38.6 -12.1 -11.9 -16.8 -24.8 -30.3

-23.7 -55.9 -13.9 -13.8 -17.2 -25.1 -22.3

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1645474 450795 624250 294782 200702 3321 71623

1709133 320708 648970 392603 243761 1687 101405

1828917 264142 655462 438950 253537 1484 215342

1716767 180182 607902 444129 182144 1106 301304

1607793 154636 572392 430769 92355 1353 356287

-49534 -39711 -31911 -42676 0 -132 64896

-253079 -100346 -84674 -111644 -53548 -480 97614

-384550 -161560 -94008 -115519 -128952 -388 115877

-2.6 -13.1 -4.6 -8.9 0.0 -8.2 43.1

-12.8 -35.8 -12.2 -20.1 -22.7 -30.3 47.9

-19.3 -51.1 -14.1 -21.1 -58.3 -22.3 48.2

27.4 37.9 17.9 12.2 4.4

18.8 38.0 23.0 14.3 5.9

14.4 35.8 24.0 13.9 11.8

10.5 35.4 25.9 10.6 17.6

9.6 35.6 26.8 5.7 22.2

-1.7 -0.8 -1.6 0.4 3.8

-3.7 0.3 -2.3 -1.4 7.2

-6.3 2.2 -0.6 -5.4 10.1

-10.7 -2.1 -6.4 2.7 47.0

-26.3 0.7 -8.3 -11.3 69.7

-39.4 6.4 -2.3 -48.3 83.6

2561205 794718 291642 1474844

2993398 944823 376697 1671878

3432599 982718 648026 1801855

3402333 705992 842393 1853948

3399546 357966 1002695 2038885

-169568 0 93524 -263092

-761375 -1164871 -207553 -499822 131390 127266 -685212 -792315

-4.7 0.0 16.9 -12.7

-18.3 -22.7 18.5 -27.0

-25.5 -58.3 14.5 -28.0

384763 261342 56108 54301 10237 2774 0

402753 225135 43691 109769 21219 2939 0

411161 191303 33622 125195 47839 13203 0

384580 118631 22549 130569 93415 19416 0

381354 102953 22762 108191 123680 23768 0

-41268 -36790 -157 -32101 18263 9518 0

-103433 -96916 -1690 -58655 39020 14808 0

-133845 -156284 2627 -52112 53417 18508 0

-9.1 -16.1 -0.5 -20.4 61.8 258.3

-21.2 -45.0 -7.0 -31.0 71.7 321.4

-26.0 -60.3 13.0 -32.5 76.0 351.8

840016 673728 2 38458 127829

818581 727122 637 19291 71530

815505 718350 27052 16990 53113

785664 678534 47613 11793 47723

754807 646068 57752 10690 40297

-23485 -32885 10149 1555 -2304

-69294 -82617 16289 -2123 -844

-77331 -93160 20381 -4155 -397

-2.8 -4.4 60.0 10.1 -4.2

-8.1 -10.9 52.0 -15.3 -1.7

-9.3 -12.6 54.5 -28.0 -1.0 -16.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

84774

77467

72683

-3812

-11888

-14383

-4.3

-13.3

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110068

113779

115186

-318

-385

-402

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1071205

1126314

1250593

1236854

1220091

-30567

-160334

-223173

-2.4

-11.5

-15.5

372041 239834 132206 267394 151680 280091

342654 220752 121902 283857 161545 338258

374052 233732 140321 314998 178481 383061

396305 239480 156825 291827 167664 381059

414269 240878 173391 273720 156371 375731

-18 530 -548 -8883 -13419 -8247

-10216 -5291 -4925 -61623 -49081 -39414

-7667 -4453 -3214 -93939 -75331 -46236

0.0 0.2 -0.4 -2.7 -7.0 -2.1

-2.5 -2.2 -3.0 -17.4 -22.6 -9.4

-1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -25.6 -32.5 -11.0

128087 441141 219636 183815 67635 30892

58191 476894 259889 216343 73194 41802

46554 507063 280395 254278 79592 82711

39843 474771 282992 256631 84270 98347

34089 446875 288756 259847 87088 103436

-766 -24406 -10328 -12308 -4331 21570

-1767 -74511 -43408 -56851 -8258 24463

-2401 -88251 -54122 -88046 -14145 23793

-1.6 -4.6 -3.6 -4.6 -5.2 35.3

-4.2 -13.6 -13.3 -18.1 -8.9 33.1

-6.6 -16.5 -15.8 -25.3 -14.0 29.9

4009.9 1483.5 151.1 761.0 516.6 285.7 812.0

3800.2 1359.8 154.0 594.1 459.7 247.7 984.9

3690.8 1198.5 117.2 592.1 475.6 250.1 1057.2

3222.1 873.6 91.6 590.4 425.5 237.0 1004.1

2991.4 752.5 77.2 588.9 384.8 225.4 962.7

-352.0 -235.6 -16.5 -19.5 -18.2 -15.5 -46.7

-909.5 -548.1 -30.1 -48.5 -84.2 -44.2 -154.3

-1189.0 -762.0 -26.8 -32.6 -118.7 -63.5 -185.5

-8.7 -16.4 -12.4 -3.2 -3.7 -5.8 -4.2

-22.0 -38.6 -24.7 -7.6 -16.5 -15.7 -13.3

-28.4 -50.3 -25.8 -5.2 -23.6 -22.0 -16.2

100.0

94.8

92.0

80.4

74.6

-8.8

-22.7

-29.7

-8.7

-22.0

-28.4

Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

116

EU27: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712 7358.9 223.6 3.48 5418 2.44 8.48 544.9 44.6

483.520 9001.0 189.9 3.53 6191 2.22 7.86 422.2 46.7

492.838 11044.1 165.6 3.71 6965 2.02 7.49 334.2 50.9

496.408 13825.4 124.2 3.46 6854 1.88 6.49 233.1 57.9

494.784 16315.6 98.5 3.25 6871 1.86 6.05 183.3 60.3

0.000 0.0 -4.5 -0.10 -344 -0.13 -0.71 -31.9 -3.5

0.000 0.0 -18.3 -0.51 -1534 -0.22 -1.83 -65.8 -5.0

0.000 0.0 -23.6 -0.78 -2354 -0.24 -2.40 -72.9 -3.9

0.0 0.0 -2.6 -2.6 -4.7 -6.2 -8.7 -8.7 -6.4

0.0 0.0 -12.8 -12.8 -18.3 -10.5 -22.0 -22.0 -7.9

0.0 0.0 -19.3 -19.3 -25.5 -11.3 -28.4 -28.4 -6.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

80.2 87.2 83.5 98.7

74.4 79.1 72.8 91.1

63.1 59.1 53.9 72.4

56.2 47.2 42.3 60.5

0.0 -2.2 -5.5 -2.0

-1.6 -12.5 -15.8 -7.5

-1.0 -16.2 -20.4 -7.4

0.0 -2.7 -7.0 -2.1

-2.5 -17.4 -22.6 -9.4

-1.8 -25.6 -32.5 -11.0

0.42 2.22 2.05 1.93 1.88 2.90

0.30 2.03 1.73 1.62 1.53 2.91

0.23 1.90 1.58 1.51 1.40 2.76

0.17 1.82 1.49 1.46 1.41 2.64

0.14 1.77 1.42 1.41 1.44 2.56

-0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.01 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.03 -0.08 0.02 0.12 -0.12

-0.09 0.00 -0.05 0.04 0.19 -0.16

-13.9 -1.7 -3.2 -1.0 1.2 -2.2

-28.3 -1.5 -5.2 1.1 8.9 -4.4

-37.8 -0.2 -3.5 2.7 15.6 -5.8

697174 145542 105185 12786 176 433485 120284 203503 135927 78309 14723 0 1022

858317 139130 116033 105906 1661 495587 158752 165705 226407 65480 34456 0 3539

907151 109239 120324 175121 7042 495424 203616 107873 241321 49024 92151 0 5056

976112 44737 122950 236753 18173 553499 265176 116244 250416 40015 140791 0 6033

8995 0 3657 27100 0 -21762 -4890 -4737 -27962 -4406 13161 0 2183

-76323 -11530 2443 46165 2177 -115579 -22101 -64162 -88377 -127 33548 0 3539

-180206 -61700 780 52250 7737 -179274 -8999 -115116 -128882 4684 55650 0 4389

1.1 0.0 3.3 34.4 0.0 -4.2 -3.0 -2.8 -11.0 -6.3 61.8

-7.8 -9.5 2.1 35.8 44.8 -18.9 -9.8 -37.3 -26.8 -0.3 57.2

-15.6 -58.0 0.6 28.3 74.1 -24.5 -3.3 -49.8 -34.0 13.3 65.4

160.9

233.3

267.1

35.7 49.0 14.9 46.4 31.6 14.9

37.7 45.7 19.7 53.3 28.6 24.7

41.5 42.8 28.0 60.1 20.8 39.4

46.0 39.8 37.2 60.3 10.5 49.8

-1.6 -2.8 1.1 7.9 1.3 6.6

-3.3 -5.5 5.2 14.9 -1.2 16.1

-1.3 -5.3 11.4 14.4 -8.3 22.6

-4.0 -5.7 6.0 17.5 4.9 36.3

-7.3 -11.4 23.1 33.0 -5.4 69.2

-2.7 -11.8 44.2 31.3 -44.0 83.4

5568.5 502.3 4316.4 417.8 298.4 33.6

6594.5 518.0 5125.0 457.0 454.7 39.7

7609.8 508.1 5940.1 494.3 621.9 45.4

8393.5 500.7 6555.0 528.7 759.7 49.4

-1.5 1.0 -1.4 -0.8 -0.4 0.0

-12.6 3.8 -13.8 0.5 -3.0 -0.1

-31.4 6.6 -32.8 2.8 -7.8 -0.2

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2

-0.4 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.4

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation

4769.3 554.1 3567.1 450.2 168.5 29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13381

15330

16964

-3.0

-25.3

-63.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation

1861.5 1075.1 524.7 261.8

2177.1 1507.0 396.1 274.0

2682.1 1957.1 425.1 299.9

3185.5 2407.7 446.3 331.5

3611.7 2786.5 467.0 358.3

-2.7 -1.9 -1.1 0.3

-16.3 -17.6 -0.1 1.4

-34.0 -37.8 0.7 3.1

-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1

-0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.4

-0.9 -1.3 0.2 0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

230

221

-0.2

-1.2

-2.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

280091 8685 139578 85770 9564 29449 7044

338258 7514 160719 109568 9423 45553 5481

383061 7435 173180 139909 8377 47959 6202

381059 6318 168756 148898 6211 44311 6565

375731 5288 158477 151824 5811 47602 6729

-8247 -38 -754 -539 -236 -6669 -12

-39414 -387 -5332 -15562 -580 -17381 -172

-46236 -456 -7826 -22856 -492 -14291 -315

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.7 -12.2 -0.2

-9.4 -5.8 -3.1 -9.5 -8.5 -28.2 -2.6

-11.0 -7.9 -4.7 -13.1 -7.8 -23.1 -4.5

38.9 50.8

39.8 53.6

35.7 55.0

29.6 49.0

25.8 44.0

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.6 -6.0

-3.1 -0.3

-9.3 -8.8

-9.2 -12.0

Source: PRIMES

117

EU28: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

961237 377116 132112 162820 200702 88487 27003 57710 67 173 3534

963855 227617 172757 208170 243761 111549 33138 71804 1916 679 4012

952907 159032 125846 181136 253537 233356 37312 150558 22327 2917 20242

786124 107383 60927 110029 182144 325641 39714 214149 36631 6172 28974

710315 86333 52865 90155 94915 386047 40785 251158 49251 10263 34589

48607 -17378 -823 -4843 0 71651 2447 47391 6337 608 14868

381 -49259 -1627 -852 -53548 105666 1809 71889 9489 123 22356

-68405 -60079 -528 -1015 -129861 123078 225 86947 9820 -977 27063

5.4 -9.9 -0.6 -2.6 0.0 44.3 7.0 45.9 39.6 26.3 276.6

0.0 -31.4 -2.6 -0.8 -22.7 48.0 4.8 50.5 35.0 2.0 337.8

-8.8 -41.0 -1.0 -1.1 -57.8 46.8 0.6 52.9 24.9 -8.7 359.6

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

776740 85626 550163 523502 26661 137693 3259

868442 107717 555056 528467 26589 203694 1975

1021827 126310 613319 576540 36778 281031 1168

1115572 95683 649922 622694 27228 369095 873

1125515 94417 639475 617793 21682 390582 1041

-97307 -24349 -31895 -31540 -355 -40931 -132

-263644 -57690 -88340 -83166 -5174 -117134 -481

-343287 -111375 -104825 -100437 -4387 -126697 -390

-8.7 -16.2 -4.9 -5.2 -1.0 -12.7 -10.2

-19.1 -37.6 -12.0 -11.8 -16.0 -24.1 -35.5

-23.4 -54.1 -14.1 -14.0 -16.8 -24.5 -27.3

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1704962 467717 647159 297637 200702 3259 88487

1786487 343986 679975 405241 243761 1975 111549

1925953 285342 690384 462167 253537 1168 233356

1848018 203066 657170 479124 182144 873 325641

1779421 180750 635930 480738 94915 1041 386047

-48700 -41727 -32718 -45774 0 -132 71651

-263262 -106949 -89967 -117985 -53548 -481 105666

-411692 -171454 -105353 -127712 -129861 -390 123078

-2.5 -12.8 -4.5 -9.0 0.0 -10.2 44.3

-12.5 -34.5 -12.0 -19.8 -22.7 -35.5 48.0

-18.8 -48.7 -14.2 -21.0 -57.8 -27.3 46.8

27.4 38.0 17.5 11.8 5.2

19.3 38.1 22.7 13.6 6.2

14.8 35.8 24.0 13.2 12.1

11.0 35.6 25.9 9.9 17.6

10.2 35.7 27.0 5.3 21.7

-1.7 -0.8 -1.7 0.3 3.9

-3.7 0.2 -2.4 -1.3 7.2

-5.9 1.9 -0.8 -4.9 9.7

-10.6 -2.1 -6.7 2.5 48.0

-25.2 0.5 -8.3 -11.7 69.1

-36.8 5.6 -2.7 -48.0 80.8

2618738 794718 314786 1509233

3118298 944823 407604 1765871

3596950 982718 695044 1919189

3621459 705992 895398 2020068

3722154 367887 1067646 2286621

-178153 0 102142 -280295

-801064 -1241743 -207553 -503345 134716 128663 -728227 -867061

-4.7 0.0 17.2 -12.7

-18.1 -22.7 17.7 -26.5

-25.0 -57.8 13.7 -27.5

393649 266482 57294 56793 10237 2842 0

424378 235098 46624 118348 21304 3004 0

439589 199534 35653 137012 48653 18737 0

423232 131546 23641 145162 95561 27322 0

429290 121678 23633 124786 126208 32984 0

-40570 -38689 -70 -35250 18579 14859 0

-104300 -103079 -1694 -62037 39989 22521 0

-139610 -165329 2589 -58611 54303 27437 0

-8.4 -16.2 -0.2 -20.5 61.8 383.2

-19.8 -43.9 -6.7 -29.9 72.0 469.1

-24.5 -57.6 12.3 -32.0 75.5 494.6

867592 696742 2 38458 132391

846345 750941 637 19291 75474

852013 751495 27165 17026 56328

835921 725235 48109 11895 50682

819145 706250 59210 10865 42820

-24237 -33640 10172 1553 -2322

-73979 -87570 16511 -2147 -773

-87495 -103776 20915 -4198 -436

-2.8 -4.3 59.9 10.0 -4.0

-8.1 -10.8 52.3 -15.3 -1.5

-9.7 -12.8 54.6 -27.9 -1.0 -16.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

80396

88538

87651

80987

76874

-3914

-12326

-15216

-4.3

-13.2

101612

112692

113453

117743

119708

-324

-407

-420

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1109885

1180941

1322945

1339114

1359554

-32114

-172169

-248967

-2.4

-11.4

-15.5

384219 245670 138549 281949 154275 289441

363322 228215 135107 300854 166339 350426

401141 242029 159112 334358 186370 401076

435772 249700 186072 316905 177964 408472

474354 254092 220263 304853 168257 412089

-106 517 -623 -8960 -14237 -8812

-11540 -5505 -6035 -64904 -52608 -43116

-9475 -4638 -4837 -102847 -81254 -55392

0.0 0.2 -0.4 -2.6 -7.1 -2.1

-2.6 -2.2 -3.1 -17.0 -22.8 -9.5

-2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -25.2 -32.6 -11.8

136126 458929 220792 187680 67875 38483

68674 499706 264489 224587 74443 49041

57892 536437 292158 265968 80183 90308

48343 519098 303953 273146 86562 108013

40292 505336 322211 284281 91785 115649

-874 -25181 -10556 -12900 -4524 21920

-2223 -79749 -46356 -59901 -7468 23528

-3192 -99517 -59809 -93958 -13463 20972

-1.5 -4.5 -3.5 -4.6 -5.3 32.1

-4.4 -13.3 -13.2 -18.0 -7.9 27.8

-7.3 -16.5 -15.7 -24.8 -12.8 22.2

4136.3 1515.0 155.8 796.2 538.0 291.5 839.9

3998.9 1431.1 159.9 650.1 481.6 255.8 1020.5

3922.0 1267.0 119.4 664.6 500.6 261.1 1109.4

3528.4 965.0 92.2 681.3 459.2 248.5 1082.2

3386.0 871.3 77.7 712.1 426.7 234.5 1063.6

-369.9 -250.4 -16.2 -19.7 -18.7 -16.5 -48.4

-966.3 -580.8 -30.1 -54.2 -88.9 -46.7 -165.7

-1290.0 -813.5 -26.7 -39.8 -130.4 -65.9 -213.5

-8.6 -16.5 -12.0 -2.9 -3.6 -5.9 -4.2

-21.5 -37.6 -24.6 -7.4 -16.2 -15.8 -13.3

-27.6 -48.3 -25.6 -5.3 -23.4 -22.0 -16.7

100.0

96.7

94.8

85.3

81.9

-8.9

-23.4

-31.2

-8.6

-21.5

-27.6

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

118

EU28: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913 7511.4 227.0 3.22 4951 2.43 7.82 550.7 44.6

550.981 9217.8 193.8 3.24 5660 2.24 7.26 433.8 47.5

569.992 11370.5 169.4 3.38 6311 2.04 6.88 344.9 51.7

582.152 14408.7 128.3 3.17 6221 1.91 6.06 244.9 58.7

587.546 17374.7 102.4 3.03 6335 1.90 5.76 194.9 61.3

0.000 0.0 -4.3 -0.09 -313 -0.14 -0.65 -32.5 -3.6

0.000 0.0 -18.3 -0.45 -1376 -0.22 -1.66 -67.1 -5.0

0.000 0.0 -23.7 -0.70 -2113 -0.23 -2.20 -74.2 -4.0

0.0 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 -4.7 -6.3 -8.6 -8.6 -6.4

0.0 0.0 -12.5 -12.5 -18.1 -10.3 -21.5 -21.5 -7.9

0.0 0.0 -18.8 -18.8 -25.0 -10.8 -27.6 -27.6 -6.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.8 87.3 84.3 98.7

75.9 79.0 74.1 91.5

64.8 59.6 55.2 73.6

58.2 47.7 43.0 61.6

0.0 -2.1 -5.7 -2.0

-1.7 -12.2 -16.3 -7.8

-1.2 -16.1 -20.8 -8.3

0.0 -2.6 -7.1 -2.1

-2.6 -17.0 -22.8 -9.5

-2.0 -25.2 -32.6 -11.8

0.42 2.22 2.07 1.91 1.89 2.90

0.30 2.04 1.79 1.60 1.54 2.91

0.23 1.92 1.66 1.50 1.40 2.77

0.17 1.85 1.56 1.45 1.40 2.65

0.15 1.79 1.50 1.40 1.39 2.58

-0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.02 0.02 -0.06

-0.07 -0.02 -0.08 0.01 0.12 -0.11

-0.08 0.00 -0.05 0.03 0.19 -0.15

-14.0 -1.6 -2.8 -1.0 1.2 -2.1

-27.2 -1.3 -4.9 0.9 9.1 -4.1

-35.5 -0.1 -3.4 2.4 15.7 -5.5

725459 145542 116592 12806 176 450343 122684 210547 143140 80801 14814 0 1040

900425 139130 128145 107782 1661 523708 162956 175797 239383 68854 34898 0 4776

957061 109239 132944 178604 7073 529201 216126 116975 260296 50998 94115 0 6817

1056260 46000 136599 245198 18320 610142 288839 134096 279462 41864 146633 0 8088

11603 0 4211 28362 0 -20971 -5607 -4737 -28226 -4600 13241 0 3352

-81024 -11530 2780 46323 2177 -120774 -19614 -67716 -92502 -247 34457 0 5232

-188866 -62150 780 52943 7737 -188177 -3022 -123407 -134955 4567 59266 0 6352

1.3 0.0 3.4 35.7 0.0 -3.9 -3.3 -2.6 -10.5 -6.3 61.1

-7.8 -9.5 2.1 35.0 44.5 -18.6 -8.3 -36.7 -26.2 -0.5 57.8

-15.2 -57.5 0.6 27.5 73.1 -23.6 -1.0 -47.9 -32.6 12.2 67.8

235.4

330.2

366.0

35.8 49.1 14.8 45.6 30.3 15.3

37.5 45.6 19.2 52.5 27.3 25.2

41.0 43.2 28.2 58.5 19.5 39.0

45.8 40.2 37.3 57.7 9.9 47.8

-1.8 -2.9 1.0 8.1 1.3 6.8

-3.8 -5.4 5.7 14.7 -1.2 15.8

-1.9 -5.3 12.1 13.8 -7.7 21.4

-4.7 -5.9 5.5 18.2 5.0 37.0

-8.4 -11.2 25.5 33.5 -5.6 68.5

-3.9 -11.6 47.8 31.3 -43.7 81.2

5752.9 589.7 4397.4 423.6 304.7 37.4

6895.7 619.8 5299.0 465.7 466.2 45.0

8248.6 631.2 6392.6 516.5 653.1 55.2

9445.6 615.5 7371.2 573.9 822.3 62.7

-1.5 1.3 -1.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.0

-16.3 5.6 -20.4 2.2 -3.5 -0.2

-48.8 9.3 -56.4 8.6 -9.9 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.8 1.5 -1.2 -0.7

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2 618.4 3601.6 456.6 170.7 33.9 9229

10441

12098

14169

16076

-2.7

-28.0

-83.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3 1159.5 532.6 266.3

2352.3 1668.6 405.9 277.8

2944.1 2201.9 437.0 305.3

3590.4 2785.7 465.2 339.5

4183.8 3319.9 495.3 368.6

-3.3 -2.4 -1.1 0.3

-21.6 -23.5 0.4 1.5

-47.6 -53.6 2.6 3.4

-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1

-0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.4

-1.1 -1.6 0.5 0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.3

-1.5

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

289441 9634 140266 92511 9807 29928 7295

350426 8758 162549 116941 9691 46814 5673

401076 8868 176706 151003 8629 49402 6470

408472 7856 176690 163487 6469 46982 6988

412089 6465 170616 169067 6269 52413 7259

-8812 -42 -778 -616 -253 -7110 -13

-43116 -472 -5645 -17518 -615 -18675 -192

-55392 -654 -10361 -27653 -472 -15888 -364

-2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.9 -12.6 -0.2

-9.5 -5.7 -3.1 -9.7 -8.7 -28.4 -2.7

-11.8 -9.2 -5.7 -14.1 -7.0 -23.3 -4.8

38.5 51.8

39.3 52.8

35.1 53.9

28.8 47.6

24.9 42.2

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.7

-2.7 -6.2

-3.2 -0.3

-9.4 -8.9

-9.9 -12.8

Source: PRIMES

119

EU30: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal

1091087 377317 216359 186970 206883 103557 40003 59720 67 173 3595

1200143 228042 337714 253987 250675 129725 48250 74749 1919 703 4103

1184888 159565 257187 253663 260487 253985 52599 155696 22408 2951 20331

1031281 107648 185246 202193 187930 348264 56055 220146 36787 6220 29057

917909 86476 134701 189670 97190 409872 57385 258102 49382 10337 34666

26558 -17378 -1019 -27311 -51 72317 2656 48118 6062 615 14866

-28610 -49321 -1627 -28841 -54904 106083 1767 72780 9058 134 22345

-91510 -60240 -528 -19426 -134572 123256 -86 88192 9062 -962 27050

2.3 -9.8 -0.4 -9.7 0.0 39.8 5.3 44.7 37.1 26.3 272.1

-2.7 -31.4 -0.9 -12.5 -22.6 43.8 3.3 49.4 32.7 2.2 332.9

-9.1 -41.1 -0.4 -9.3 -58.1 43.0 -0.1 51.9 22.5 -8.5 355.2

Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity

695727 86632 490237 458354 31883 117149 1710

684878 108508 412700 384418 28282 163941 -272

846612 126951 503382 464338 39044 216515 -237

925933 96072 545163 516083 29080 285150 -452

970012 94651 576321 553378 22943 299382 -342

-77122 -24522 -33281 -33044 -237 -19187 -132

-240695 -57838 -91513 -86077 -5436 -90863 -481

-329386 -111563 -107936 -103284 -4653 -109496 -390

-8.3 -16.2 -6.2 -6.6 -0.6 -8.1 126.3

-20.6 -37.6 -14.4 -14.3 -15.7 -24.2 -1690.3

-25.3 -54.1 -15.8 -15.7 -16.9 -26.8 -806.5

Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms

1751588 468937 669257 301245 206883 1710 103557

1839144 345317 702393 411306 250675 -272 129725

1981660 286516 710730 470179 260487 -237 253985

1902243 203720 675438 487343 187930 -452 348264

1829998 181127 653099 489052 97190 -342 409872

-50564 -41900 -34300 -46498 -51 -132 72317

-269305 -107158 -93140 -119705 -54904 -481 106083

-420896 -171803 -108464 -128923 -134572 -390 123256

-2.5 -12.8 -4.6 -9.0 0.0 126.3 39.8

-12.4 -34.5 -12.1 -19.7 -22.6 -1690.3 43.8

-18.7 -48.7 -14.2 -20.9 -58.1 -806.5 43.0

26.8 38.2 17.2 11.8 5.9

18.8 38.2 22.4 13.6 7.1

14.5 35.9 23.7 13.1 12.8

10.7 35.5 25.6 9.9 18.3

9.9 35.7 26.7 5.3 22.4

-1.7 -0.8 -1.7 0.3 3.9

-3.6 0.1 -2.3 -1.3 7.2

-5.8 1.9 -0.7 -5.0 9.7

-10.5 -2.2 -6.7 2.5 43.4

-25.2 0.3 -8.4 -11.7 64.2

-36.9 5.5 -2.7 -48.4 75.9

2794856 818651 465941 1510263

3323905 971593 583374 1768938

3808057 1009630 873767 1924660

3841949 728396 1087278 2026275

3942340 376699 1262337 2303304

-183532 -199 101372 -284705

-820391 -1275298 -212806 -521587 129205 116232 -736789 -869942

-4.6 0.0 13.1 -12.9

-17.6 -22.6 13.5 -26.7

-24.4 -58.1 10.1 -27.4

394358 266510 57394 56913 10698 2842 0

425676 235114 46636 118562 22359 3004 0

441549 199648 35828 137019 50316 18737 0

425166 131546 23705 145162 97432 27322 0

432673 121678 23684 124829 129498 32984 0

-41037 -38770 -54 -36112 19039 14859 0

-105712 -103101 -1699 -62972 39538 22521 0

-140563 -165329 2574 -59222 53977 27437 0

-8.5 -16.3 -0.1 -20.9 60.9 383.2

-19.9 -43.9 -6.7 -30.3 68.3 469.1

-24.5 -57.6 12.2 -32.2 71.5 494.6

884427 713481 2 38512 132432

866713 771184 637 19379 75512

871130 769866 27598 17313 56353

854747 742363 49449 12238 50697

838011 723154 60795 11235 42826

-25821 -35327 10270 1558 -2323

-76360 -90448 17049 -2181 -781

-89820 -106614 21482 -4244 -444

-2.9 -4.4 59.3 9.9 -4.0

-8.2 -10.9 52.6 -15.1 -1.5

-9.7 -12.8 54.6 -27.4 -1.0 -16.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Electricity Generation in GWhe Nuclear Hydro & wind Thermal (incl. biomass) Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1) Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry(1) - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel

83789

92950

91899

84904

80214

-4315

-12896

-15610

-4.5

-13.2

103762

115166

115660

119879

121885

-327

-412

-426

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1145388

1220510

1365701

1381891

1401522

-33320

-176277

-254250

-2.4

-11.3

-15.4

394004 252212 141792 290806 160718 299860

375356 236839 138517 310280 172911 361964

413656 250943 162713 344501 193984 413560

449312 259213 190099 326846 185257 420475

488352 263656 224697 314323 175225 423621

-149 507 -656 -9076 -14802 -9293

-11721 -5580 -6140 -65801 -54237 -44519

-9677 -4771 -4906 -104234 -83521 -56819

0.0 0.2 -0.4 -2.6 -7.1 -2.2

-2.5 -2.1 -3.1 -16.8 -22.6 -9.6

-1.9 -1.8 -2.1 -24.9 -32.3 -11.8

137278 477192 222317 200044 68198 40359

69933 518412 266915 238509 75229 51512

58854 554787 296062 281099 81278 93621

48958 535774 308207 289328 87834 111789

40661 520850 326922 300544 93576 118968

-956 -26141 -10632 -13326 -4405 22141

-2372 -82534 -46971 -61433 -7662 24695

-3479 -102279 -60335 -96638 -13829 22310

-1.6 -4.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.1 31.0

-4.6 -13.3 -13.2 -17.5 -8.0 28.4

-7.9 -16.4 -15.6 -24.3 -12.9 23.1

4207.7 1515.7 163.4 807.4 551.3 300.2 869.6

4076.8 1431.7 170.4 663.2 493.5 264.5 1053.4

3999.6 1268.4 127.8 675.7 512.6 270.9 1144.2

3599.0 965.6 100.0 692.8 469.7 257.2 1113.7

3452.1 872.0 84.2 724.3 435.8 242.6 1093.2

-376.8 -252.8 -17.4 -20.4 -19.0 -17.2 -50.0

-980.5 -583.3 -31.4 -56.2 -90.0 -48.5 -171.0

-1303.3 -815.5 -27.5 -41.8 -131.5 -68.0 -219.1

-8.6 -16.6 -12.0 -2.9 -3.6 -6.0 -4.2

-21.4 -37.7 -23.9 -7.5 -16.1 -15.9 -13.3

-27.4 -48.3 -24.6 -5.5 -23.2 -21.9 -16.7

100.0

96.9

95.1

85.5

82.0

-9.0

-23.3

-31.0

-8.6

-21.4

-27.4

(1)

Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) Other CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100) Source: PRIMES

120

EU30: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case Comparison to Baseline scenario 1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00) Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant) Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant) CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00) Import Dependency % Energy intensity indicators (1990=100) Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added) Transport (Energy on GDP) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950 7877.3 222.4 3.24 5176 2.40 7.79 534.2 38.9

562.681 9665.6 190.3 3.27 5907 2.22 7.25 421.8 36.4

582.130 11898.8 166.5 3.40 6542 2.02 6.87 336.1 41.7

594.587 15057.8 126.3 3.20 6462 1.89 6.05 239.0 47.3

600.252 18137.4 100.9 3.05 6568 1.89 5.75 190.3 51.4

0.000 0.0 -4.2 -0.09 -315 -0.14 -0.65 -31.7 -2.7

0.000 0.0 -17.9 -0.45 -1380 -0.22 -1.65 -65.1 -5.1

0.000 0.0 -23.2 -0.70 -2125 -0.23 -2.17 -71.9 -4.9

0.0 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 -4.6 -6.3 -8.6 -8.6 -6.1

0.0 0.0 -12.4 -12.4 -17.6 -10.3 -21.4 -21.4 -9.7

0.0 0.0 -18.7 -18.7 -24.4 -10.7 -27.4 -27.4 -8.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

81.7 87.4 84.5 98.4

75.8 79.0 74.5 91.3

64.8 59.7 55.5 73.4

58.1 47.8 43.3 61.4

0.0 -2.1 -5.7 -2.1

-1.7 -12.0 -16.3 -7.8

-1.2 -15.8 -20.7 -8.2

0.0 -2.6 -7.1 -2.2

-2.5 -16.8 -22.6 -9.6

-1.9 -24.9 -32.3 -11.8

0.40 2.21 2.05 1.90 1.87 2.90

0.29 2.03 1.77 1.59 1.53 2.91

0.22 1.91 1.63 1.49 1.40 2.77

0.17 1.83 1.54 1.44 1.39 2.65

0.15 1.78 1.48 1.39 1.38 2.58

-0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.02 0.02 -0.06

-0.06 -0.03 -0.08 0.01 0.11 -0.11

-0.08 0.00 -0.06 0.03 0.18 -0.15

-14.1 -1.6 -2.9 -1.0 1.2 -2.0

-27.6 -1.5 -5.1 0.8 8.8 -4.1

-35.8 -0.3 -3.6 2.3 15.3 -5.5

769539 148992 155831 12886 195 451636 123656 210703 143723 80968 15202 0 1040

948444 142580 169704 108213 1705 526242 164368 175952 240860 69031 35623 0 4776

1007797 112689 176315 179658 7184 531951 217890 117053 261694 51099 95290 0 6817

1106916 47100 180413 246188 18552 614663 292553 134096 280702 41920 149858 0 8088

10635 0 4488 27252 0 -21105 -5422 -4675 -28577 -4567 13362 0 3352

-83442 -11530 3001 44640 2177 -121731 -19649 -67654 -93213 -213 34117 0 5232

-194642 -64475 1074 49965 7737 -188944 -2696 -123407 -135632 4562 59180 0 6352

1.1 0.0 2.7 33.7 0.0 -3.9 -3.2 -2.6 -10.6 -6.2 60.0

-7.6 -9.3 1.7 33.1 43.5 -18.6 -8.3 -36.6 -26.3 -0.4 55.8

-15.0 -57.8 0.6 25.5 71.5 -23.5 -0.9 -47.9 -32.6 12.2 65.3

235.4

330.2

366.0

35.7 49.3 14.0 48.9 29.2 19.6

37.5 45.8 18.3 55.1 26.5 28.6

41.0 43.5 26.7 60.9 19.0 41.9

45.8 40.7 35.7 60.1 9.6 50.5

-1.9 -2.8 0.9 7.9 1.2 6.6

-3.8 -5.3 5.3 14.3 -1.2 15.5

-1.8 -5.1 11.4 13.5 -7.7 21.2

-4.8 -5.7 5.3 16.6 4.8 30.3

-8.4 -10.8 24.6 30.8 -6.1 59.0

-3.8 -11.2 46.8 29.0 -44.5 72.0

5925.5 596.9 4530.1 443.8 316.3 38.4

7096.8 628.1 5452.3 488.6 481.6 46.2

8471.5 640.0 6562.0 541.0 671.9 56.5

9680.4 624.7 7549.3 599.3 843.0 64.1

-1.5 1.3 -1.8 -0.6 -0.4 0.0

-16.6 5.6 -20.6 2.1 -3.5 -0.2

-49.3 9.4 -56.9 8.7 -10.0 -0.4

0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

-0.2 0.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3

-0.5 1.5 -0.7 1.5 -1.2 -0.7

Electricity and steam generation Generation Capacity in MWe Nuclear Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Thermal of which cogeneration units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat Indicators Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) Load factor for gross electric capacities (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Travel per person (km per capita) Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00) Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation Efficiency indicator (activity related) Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5 625.6 3720.2 473.5 178.7 34.5 9320

10531

12191

14248

16127

-2.6

-27.9

-82.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8 1179.2 544.1 303.5

2447.9 1705.6 419.3 323.0

3056.6 2253.2 452.8 350.6

3721.3 2854.7 481.7 384.9

4327.9 3404.8 511.9 411.1

-3.3 -2.5 -1.0 0.3

-22.3 -24.1 0.4 1.5

-49.1 -55.2 2.7 3.5

-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1

-0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.4

-1.1 -1.6 0.5 0.9

257

253

257

247

239

-0.3

-1.5

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860 9802 145794 94266 10142 31627 8229

361964 8917 168062 119351 10079 49160 6394

413560 9045 182475 154351 9018 51470 7202

420475 8019 181959 167319 6766 48710 7701

423621 6607 175395 173092 6539 54082 7907

-9293 -43 -805 -635 -262 -7532 -15

-44519 -481 -5809 -18003 -642 -19376 -208

-56819 -664 -10515 -28363 -491 -16398 -387

-2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -2.8 -12.8 -0.2

-9.6 -5.7 -3.1 -9.7 -8.7 -28.5 -2.6

-11.8 -9.1 -5.7 -14.1 -7.0 -23.3 -4.7

38.9 51.4

39.6 52.0

35.3 53.3

28.9 47.2

25.0 41.9

-1.2 -0.2

-3.0 -4.6

-2.7 -6.1

-3.3 -0.3

-9.5 -9.0

-9.9 -12.8

Source: PRIMES

121

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers. Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km. Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions EU15: EU15 Member States EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania EU28: EU27 + Turkey Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) Mtoe: million toe GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

122

KO-AC-06-002-EN-N