1the Future Of Meteorology 1

"The Future of Meteorology:  Research, Design, and Practice" Friday’s Fearless Forecast: Meteorology in 20  Years: “… it is important to look at the past to  look at the future We terribly underestimate look at the future. We terribly underestimate  what we can do in the next decades.”

The Importance of Meteorology The Importance of Meteorology • Value: Value: diagnostic and prognostic views of the  diagnostic and prognostic views of the atmosphere and related environment to  support decision making support decision making • Changing missions – – Protect life and property P t t lif d t – Enhance economic competiveness – Support environmental quality (stewardship) l l ( dh ) – Foster a sustainable society

Meteorology: A field with multiple  Meteorology: A field with multiple dimensions, or one with a  multiple personality disorder? li l li di d ? • Science vs Engineering or Discipline vs Profession or Pure vs Applied • Climate vs Weather Ocean vs Atmosphere • Enter the social/behavioral/decision sciences / /

Science vs Engineering g g Scientists study the world as it is; engineers create the world that  has never been.      —Theodore von Kármán

• Assertion: Many current weather products  p and services could be improved and new ones  developed through an “engineering approach”  g to their design and realization.

Design • Design = problem‐solving through the application of  scientific and mathematical principles, supplemented by  empirical techniques and best practices learned through  experience, to achieve a practical end • In addition to the underlying science, design normally  requires consideration of the aesthetic, functional, and  many other aspects of an object or a process, which usually  requires considerable research, thought, modeling,  i id bl h th ht d li interactive adjustment, and re‐design. • Meteorology is involved in producing and distributing time‐ sensitive “information”, with the relevant physical systems  iti “i f ti ” ith th l t h i l t being information generating ones, consisting of  sensing/processing/display devices.

Balance Between “Climate” and  “ “Weather” h ” • Climate change Æ g change in weather regimes g g – Its real, its happening; significant environmental  changes underway

• National National research portfolio – research portfolio emphasis on climate  emphasis on climate and ocean research producing an imbalance?? – Climate vs Weather = An artificial division Æ nature is  a continuum – Ocean vs atmosphere Æ interacting components of  one global system one global system • A strong, proactive weather enterprise is essential for  adaption, coping in the face of environmental change • National Climate Service??? National Climate Service???

The importance of  social/economic/political dimensions l/ / l ld • Improve the value of weather information products to  the user • Provide users (= consumers) with information needed to  make informed decisions make informed decisions – – – – – –

Government at all levels Business and commerce T Transportation t ti Agriculture Homeland security/Military operations General public

• Sustainability – mitigation, adaptation, coping/muddling  through

OPPORTUNITIES

Observation, Data Assimilation,  Modeling •

Hurricanes – – – –

• •

Track  Structure Evolution of intensity Post landfall

Wildfire Æ wildfires versus prescribed burns; “management” of resources,  cost/benefit; smoke Æ major health concern  cost/benefit; smoke Æ major health concern Environmental quality, regional to local scale (street canyon winds; pollution;  disease spread)  – Microscale urban environment Æ re‐urbanization of city cores will lead to new  economic drivers d

• •

Energy productionÆ wind/solar, other renewables Æ growth market;  exploration for fossil fuels in every harsher environments Water Æ hydromet; water for people, agriculture, industry Water Æ hydromet; water for people, agriculture, industry

Challenges – Resolution Æ hardware – Interface characterization Æ mapping, measurements; data assimilation – Parameterization Æ physics

Geographic Information Systems Geographic Information Systems • Relates Relates “weather” weather  to  to “society” society • Ubiquitous • Number of users of weather information is  b f f h i f i i becoming overwhelming – change from  “ h” “ ll” Æ provide constantly  “push” to “pull” Æ id l updated data bases + tools for users = users  configure own portfolio fi f li

Software Tools Software Tools • Downscaling Downscaling tools Æ tools Æ first generation  first generation “smart” smart   decision aides”? – Nowcasting on the meso‐ and microscale • Wildfire • Plume spread • Road surface conditions Road surface conditions

– Interpolate mesoscale model output down to micro‐ (landscape) scale; combination of physics, statistics,  and GIS; aggressive verification/validation d GIS i ifi ti / lid ti

• Continuity in displays showing past, present, and  future

Sensors • “Smart” Smart – Asynchronous – Deployed in auto‐configuring, collaborative  Deployed in auto configuring collaborative networks – Self‐maintaining (on‐board diagnostic tools) Self‐maintaining (on‐board diagnostic tools)

• Lidar to complement, extend radar in many  applications

Radar Meteorology Radar Meteorology • Dual Dual‐polarization polarization applications applications • Refractivity • Non‐meteorological targets l i l – Aerobiology Æ atmospheric analog to marine  b l biology • Birds/bats/insects Æ census, migration; spread of  disease

• Fire smoke and other plume monitoring 

Climate System Climate System • Threat Assessment  Threat Assessment – refine models but also … refine models but also • Stability of a highly non‐linear system – Sudden/Rapid Climate Change Æ S dd /R id Cli t Ch Æ unpleasant  l t surprises

Uncertainty • Ensemble Ensemble prediction systems Æ prediction systems Æ Probabalistic Forecasting  – Characterization – Communication

• H How we do this on the meso d thi th and smaller  d ll scales?  Some blend of ensembles and  statistics? t ti ti ?

Closing Thoughts Closing Thoughts • Striking Striking balances balances • Flexibility and agility • Entrepreneurial spirit i l ii