101, China, Russia And World Order

Emporium Current Essays The modern day journalist and diplomat share the same challenge of reporting and evaluating events as if in real time. They need to cut through the haze created by the rhetoric cf official spokespersons and get as close to the truth as possible without the perspective provided by time. The initial commentaries In Pakistan a the Joint Declaration made by President Yeltsin aud President Jbng Zemin have treated the document as rather a dramatic event. It has been generally overlooked that it is but a milestone IB the journey that began in 1986, if not earlier. Also overlooked were some fundamental questions: Does Russia wish to confront the West and an it afford to do so? Do the Chinese at all believe In the putative threat from the West to the immense expanse of Eurasian land mass in which China and Russia are situated? The fact of the matter is that their is International orders yet. The world is still grappling with the post-cold war disorder. A colleague And friend has recently articulated a Road Map for Pakistan to find its place in the present international setting. We can discuss this map or propose alternatives for a serious foreign policy debate. But wishful thinking, mindless and-Amerkanism related to nothing specific in Time and Pace and, above all, a dective approach to past and contemporary history weald make it extremely difficult to chart a safe course la the turbulent waters ahead. Consider the following observation by Pakistan's most publicised soldier: "West-fixated vision is the carry aver of the old colonial habit where progress, peace and prosperity of the peoples af the World was conceived as the White Mac's burden - Anglo SaxonProtestant-Christian to be specific." ^ This historical Insight is offered to us during a discussion o the China-Russia Jou Declaration. Consider further if this sweeping judgement on history can include in its compass the vast tracts of Muslim lands and Muslim peoples captured by Czarist Russia and the Soviet Onion. Consider again if Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya were ravaged by Protestant Anglo-Saxoas, 460 Emporium Current Essays Imperialism has no exclusive religion, no specific ethnicity. One has to invoke a hundred factors to define the historical forces that drive ostensibly decent people to enslave others. The tragic events that began with the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait and the collapse of the Soviet Union did produce a relatively short period of American triumphalism. Once the mighty Soviet Army had fallen into disarray, there was little doubt about the military preponderance of the United States. Nevertheless, it was soon apparent that interventionist!} would not be sustainable. Northern Iraq and Somalia delineated the

limitations of their reliance on fore rather quickly. It was not for nothing thaf Washington procrastinated for such a long time before becoming directly involved in Bosnia and that too with significant conditions and reservations. It has not been easy for the United States to convert its overwhelming military superiority into political and economic advantage. It has not always been the principal beneficiary of the emerging patterns of production and flow of services. The European Union, Japan the East Asian Tigers and the burgeoning economy of China have been ntpidfy transforming the world into a multipolar economic space. Washington does not have much of a choice except to keep emphasising liberalisation of economy and "marketisation" even when the mechanism by which it could appropriate to itself the fruits of these global trends diminish by the day. An increasing number of American thinkers now concede that even in the early part of the aext iniHenohsm, United States would have to be content with being one of the major powers and that it would probably by able to maintain an edge only through information technology and cultural innovation. Strategic relations with Beijing, New Delhi and Tehran are part of a Russian quest for a new equilibrium. It would, however, be highly fallacious to think that Moscow can, in the foreseeable future, contemplate a policy of confrontation with the West. It needs to consolidate its new nation state over decades to come. Let us look at two major irritants in Russian relations with the West from a Third World and Islamic perspective. The irritants in question are. NATO's eastward expansion and the Russian insistence that it should be given a free and exclusive hand iu the "Near Abroad," Several factors seem to propel NATO eastward. It is entirely possible that the West wants to place itself in a position of decisive advantage in case democracy fails in Russia and the country reverts to an authoritarian and revanchist regime. There is, however, another perspective which should not be lost sight of The most ardent advocacy of NATO's enlargement comes from the new Emporium Current Essays 461 democracies of Eastern Europe that were forcibly turned into satellites by the Soviet Union. Having worked in the Czech Republic I am painfully aware of their trauma and their lingering distrust of Russia. This sense of insecurity undergoes a quantum jumps as one "moves to the Baltic States. It is a manifest failure of Russian diplomacy that to far Moscow has not been able to reassure even Ukraine on questions of national security. NATO's expansion thus also becomes a positive response to insistent demands from former members of the Warsaw Pact to widen the area oC protected democracies. - >«- -; V The other irritant pertains to Russian determination that the "Near Abroad" remains an exclusive zone of Russian influence. Moscow can insist on treating Chechnya as an

internal issue. It is, however, highly questionable that Azerbaijan and Central Asian States be denied access to foreign investment and technology. Russia needs of clarify its understanding of the concept of a multipolar world.. Far too many voices in Russia demand the restoration of its hegemonic status. To b fair o this great country, there are a great many Russians who want to turn their country into a genuine democracy free from the pursuit of reviving their lost empire. So far their voices tend to get drowned in louder and more strident noises made by militant nationalists. Notwithstanding some irritants an doubts, the West remains Russians first and foremost priority. The West also has a great stake in fining acceptable solutions for problems like NATO enlargement. There is new a relationship of inter-dependence which would _ promote solutions of contentious issues. The post-Soviet period has reduced Russia to massive supplier of raw materials. It has large debt burden and a serious fiscal deficit. It s inability to stop the flight of capital, which stands at 160 billion dollars in some estimates, makes it dependent on Western countries as well as international financial institutions dominated by the United States. Even vital sectors like oil and gas need a massive injection of foreign capital for their renovation. The Russian automobile industry badly needs modernisation and looks to the West and Japan. There is hardly an enterprise which does not have or seek a Western partner. Any Pakistani strategic thinker who postulates revival of antagonism between Russia and the West at a serious factor in global politics is chasing a phantom. Neither side would permit it. This is certainly not the objective of Sino-Russian rapprochement, China is, of course, in a much happier situation. It will enter the new millennium as a formidable economic and military power, "s diplomacy is now fully geared to creating stable equations all •Sit'. 462 Emporium Current Essays I"' around so that its economic growth is not impeded. It is free from Big Power Chauvinism and does not engender much insecurity in neighbouring nations. It was crucial for China to develop a strong co-operative relationship with Russia, aa excellent source of military technology and a good market for Chinese goods. It has achieved a notable success in establishing a frontier regime with its Central Asian neighbours, which have no desire to become a springboard for subversion of its Muslim provinces. Its India policy is being pursued without abandoning its role in maintaining the semblance of balance in South Asia. China's economic position in the Asia-pacific region in secure. Its extensive economic relations' with countries of the European Union have withstood the storms created by differences j on Human Rights. It is conducting its bilateral political and

economic relations with the United States firmly and flexibly. It has made it clear that it can wait patiently for the emergence of the I right equilibrium with Washington. I The Sino-Russian Joint Declaration has to be seen as part of I a comprehensive and multi-faceted policy. This is why there was a I subtle difference of tone and language between the Presidents of the I two countries when it was signed. I The Joint Declaration is only one building bloc, albeit al crucial one, in the future architecture of a New World Order. It is I doubtful if the international community has even a blueprint as yell The new international order has to go beyond the management oil inter-state differences and conflicts. It has to seek answers to nevl challenges which are casting a very dark shadow on the end of this! troubled century. How is the international community going to reacll to genocide that sends hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming across international borders? Can the New Whorl Order cope witlB the tragic cavalcade of failed states and save others from joiniaB their hapless ranks? I How would it stop ecological damage from becomufl irreversible? We need to slowdown, if not prevent, the death of tbfl planet. A just and equitable World Order would not restrict ttiil enterprise to arresting growth in the Third World but also curtaiH the present staggering level of consumption in a small number ofl highly developed countries inhabited by a fraction of the global population. It is both sad and ironic that a period of unprecedented economic growth sustained by modern technology has marginalised a vast majority of the global population. It is a poor base on whkiH to construct an international order superior to the conventioniH balance of power. •