090629 Webinar Klein
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Climate change and the other developing countries: Implications for climate policy Richard J.T. Klein ([email protected]) Webinar, International Society of Sustainability Professionals, 29 June 2009
Outline • International climate policy: prevention and cure • Climate vulnerability of developing countries • Adaptation as part of a global climate agreement • Reasons for optimism?
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced climate change began to attract policy attention. • In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990.
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced The role of the IPCC: climate change attracted policy attention. • To assess on a comprehensive, objective, open • In 1988, United Nations the and the transparent basis theestablished scientific, technical Intergovernmental Panelinformation on Climate Change and socio-economic relevant to (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990. understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced climate change attracted policy attention. • In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990. • In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed at the Rio Summit. It entered into force in 1994. • In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was agreed. It entered into force in 2005.
The ultimate objective of climate policy “To achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
Prevention and cure
Examples of adaptation options Anticipatory
Reactive · Changes in length of growing season · Changes in ecosystem composition · Wetland migration
Private
· Purchase of insurance · Construction of house on stilts · Redesign of oil rigs
· Changes in farm practices · Changes in insurance premiums · Purchase of air-conditioning
Public
Natural Systems
· Early-warning systems · New building codes, design standards · Incentives for relocation
· Compensatory payments, subsidies · Enforcement of building codes · Beach nourishment
Human Systems
Adaptation in the UN negotiations • Article 4.4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: “The developed country Parties ... shall ... assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.”
Prevention is better than cure • For the first ten years, the focus of climate policy was almost exclusively on mitigation – reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Policy or research attention on adaptation was considered “admitting defeat”, and was therefore not politically correct. • In the meantime, the vulnerability of many people, particularly in developing countries, continued to rise.
Types of adaptation activities • Data collection and processing, knowledge development • Sectoral technological options (e.g. water supply, public health, agriculture, coastal management) • Disaster risk reduction and disaster relief • Support activities (e.g. communication, planning and logistics, institutional support) • Capacity building
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation Adaptation is already taking place, but climate change poses novel risks. • Droughts • Heatwaves • Accelerated glacier retreat • Permafrost melt • Increased hurricane intensity • New disease vectors
Novel risks require forward-looking investment and planning responses.
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation Adaptive capacity is unevenly distributed across and within societies. • There are individuals and groups in all societies that have insufficient capacity to adapt to climate change. • Multiple stresses (e.g. HIV/AIDS, land degradation, economic globalisation, violent conflict) adversely affect exposure to climate risks and the capacity to adapt.
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation. • High adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. • Limits and barriers to adaptation include the inability of natural systems to adapt to the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as technological, financial, cognitive, behavioural, social and cultural constraints. • There are also significant knowledge gaps for adaptation.
What will adaptation cost? • World Bank: USD 10–40 billion per year • Oxfam International: USD 50 billion per year • UNFCCC: USD 28–67 billion per year in 2030 • UNEP: USD 86 billion per year in 2015 • Stern Review: 5% of global GDP each year, with higher losses in developing countries Currently pledged to the Global Environment Facility: USD 313 million
Where could the money come from? • Official development assistance (ODA). • Levy on carbon trading (e.g. Adaptation Fund). • Earmark share of proceeds of carbon tax or cap-andtrade regime. • Levy on other activities (e.g. air travel, maritime transport). • Penalty on non-compliance of emission reduction targets.
Where could the money come from? • Official development assistance (ODA). • Levy on carbon trading (e.g. Adaptation Fund). • Earmark share of proceeds of carbon tax or cap-andtrade regime. • Levy on other activities (e.g. air travel, maritime transport). • Penalty on non-compliance of emission reduction targets.
Adaptation and ODA Vulnerability focus
Impacts focus
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
Mainstreaming • Mainstreaming is the integration of policies and measures to address climate change into ongoing sectoral planning and management, so as to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of sectoral and development investments. • It is seen as making more efficient and effective use of financial and human resources than designing, implementing and managing climate policy separately from sectoral policies.
Adaptation and ODA Mainstreaming minimum
Mainstreaming plus
Stand-alone activities
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
Concerns about mainstreaming • Adaptation funding will not be new and additional but in effect will be absorbed into ODA budgets of a fixed size. • Mainstreaming could divert any new and additional funds for adaptation into more general development activities. • The desire for mainstreaming could lead to the imposing of conditionalities on the use of adaptation funds.
Adaptation and ODA Mainstreaming minimum
Mainstreaming plus
Stand-alone activities
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
New and additional adaptation funding Traditional development funding
Adaptation and the carbon market • The Clean Development Mechanism offers companies the opportunity to achieve emission reductions in developing countries. • Two percent of the proceeds go to the Adaptation Fund. • The amount available to the Adaptation Fund depends on the demand for the Clean Development Mechanism, and on the price of carbon.
Requirements for adaptation funding • New and additional to ODA. • Predictable and timely. • Adequate in size. • Appropriate in form. • Equitable.
Things weren’t looking good, but... • Gordon Brown: “We must move the debate from a stand-off over hypothetical figures to active negotiation ... and an urgent recognition of the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable countries for adaptation finance.” • “I propose we take a working figure for this purpose of around $100 billion per annum by 2020.” • “It would come ... from a combination of the carbon market, new and additional sources of predictable finance and a limited amount of development aid.”
Moreover... • Waxman-Markey Bill: Adaptation Provision (Subtitle E) has two parts: Domestic Adaptation (including three subparts) and an International Climate Change Adaptation Program. • “Purpose of this part is to provide assistance from the United States to the most vulnerable developing countries to adapt to climate change in a manner that promotes and protects the interests of the United States.” • “40-60% of the funds available to the Program “shall be distributed to international funds created under the UNFCCC or an agreement negotiated under the Convention.”
Conclusions • Agreement on adaptation is as important to success in Copenhagen as is agreement on mitigation. • The key bottlenecks are lack of funding, and lack of trust. And they are linked. • Governments now seem to recognise the importance and the bottlenecks. Within the past few weeks, political movement is visible that was unthinkable just months ago. • Will it be enough, or will the recent moves be seen as an effort to placate developing countries for less ambitious mitigation targets?
Thank you very much for your attention. [email protected]
Outline • International climate policy: prevention and cure • Climate vulnerability of developing countries • Adaptation as part of a global climate agreement • Reasons for optimism?
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced climate change began to attract policy attention. • In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990.
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced The role of the IPCC: climate change attracted policy attention. • To assess on a comprehensive, objective, open • In 1988, United Nations the and the transparent basis theestablished scientific, technical Intergovernmental Panelinformation on Climate Change and socio-economic relevant to (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990. understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
Once upon a time... • In the mid 1980s, scientific concern about human-induced climate change attracted policy attention. • In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It published its first report in 1990. • In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed at the Rio Summit. It entered into force in 1994. • In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was agreed. It entered into force in 2005.
The ultimate objective of climate policy “To achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
Prevention and cure
Examples of adaptation options Anticipatory
Reactive · Changes in length of growing season · Changes in ecosystem composition · Wetland migration
Private
· Purchase of insurance · Construction of house on stilts · Redesign of oil rigs
· Changes in farm practices · Changes in insurance premiums · Purchase of air-conditioning
Public
Natural Systems
· Early-warning systems · New building codes, design standards · Incentives for relocation
· Compensatory payments, subsidies · Enforcement of building codes · Beach nourishment
Human Systems
Adaptation in the UN negotiations • Article 4.4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: “The developed country Parties ... shall ... assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.”
Prevention is better than cure • For the first ten years, the focus of climate policy was almost exclusively on mitigation – reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Policy or research attention on adaptation was considered “admitting defeat”, and was therefore not politically correct. • In the meantime, the vulnerability of many people, particularly in developing countries, continued to rise.
Types of adaptation activities • Data collection and processing, knowledge development • Sectoral technological options (e.g. water supply, public health, agriculture, coastal management) • Disaster risk reduction and disaster relief • Support activities (e.g. communication, planning and logistics, institutional support) • Capacity building
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation Adaptation is already taking place, but climate change poses novel risks. • Droughts • Heatwaves • Accelerated glacier retreat • Permafrost melt • Increased hurricane intensity • New disease vectors
Novel risks require forward-looking investment and planning responses.
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation Adaptive capacity is unevenly distributed across and within societies. • There are individuals and groups in all societies that have insufficient capacity to adapt to climate change. • Multiple stresses (e.g. HIV/AIDS, land degradation, economic globalisation, violent conflict) adversely affect exposure to climate risks and the capacity to adapt.
Recent IPCC conclusions on adaptation There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation. • High adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. • Limits and barriers to adaptation include the inability of natural systems to adapt to the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as technological, financial, cognitive, behavioural, social and cultural constraints. • There are also significant knowledge gaps for adaptation.
What will adaptation cost? • World Bank: USD 10–40 billion per year • Oxfam International: USD 50 billion per year • UNFCCC: USD 28–67 billion per year in 2030 • UNEP: USD 86 billion per year in 2015 • Stern Review: 5% of global GDP each year, with higher losses in developing countries Currently pledged to the Global Environment Facility: USD 313 million
Where could the money come from? • Official development assistance (ODA). • Levy on carbon trading (e.g. Adaptation Fund). • Earmark share of proceeds of carbon tax or cap-andtrade regime. • Levy on other activities (e.g. air travel, maritime transport). • Penalty on non-compliance of emission reduction targets.
Where could the money come from? • Official development assistance (ODA). • Levy on carbon trading (e.g. Adaptation Fund). • Earmark share of proceeds of carbon tax or cap-andtrade regime. • Levy on other activities (e.g. air travel, maritime transport). • Penalty on non-compliance of emission reduction targets.
Adaptation and ODA Vulnerability focus
Impacts focus
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
Mainstreaming • Mainstreaming is the integration of policies and measures to address climate change into ongoing sectoral planning and management, so as to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of sectoral and development investments. • It is seen as making more efficient and effective use of financial and human resources than designing, implementing and managing climate policy separately from sectoral policies.
Adaptation and ODA Mainstreaming minimum
Mainstreaming plus
Stand-alone activities
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
Concerns about mainstreaming • Adaptation funding will not be new and additional but in effect will be absorbed into ODA budgets of a fixed size. • Mainstreaming could divert any new and additional funds for adaptation into more general development activities. • The desire for mainstreaming could lead to the imposing of conditionalities on the use of adaptation funds.
Adaptation and ODA Mainstreaming minimum
Mainstreaming plus
Stand-alone activities
Addressing the drivers of vulnerability
Building response capacity
Managing climate risks
Confronting climate change
Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
New and additional adaptation funding Traditional development funding
Adaptation and the carbon market • The Clean Development Mechanism offers companies the opportunity to achieve emission reductions in developing countries. • Two percent of the proceeds go to the Adaptation Fund. • The amount available to the Adaptation Fund depends on the demand for the Clean Development Mechanism, and on the price of carbon.
Requirements for adaptation funding • New and additional to ODA. • Predictable and timely. • Adequate in size. • Appropriate in form. • Equitable.
Things weren’t looking good, but... • Gordon Brown: “We must move the debate from a stand-off over hypothetical figures to active negotiation ... and an urgent recognition of the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable countries for adaptation finance.” • “I propose we take a working figure for this purpose of around $100 billion per annum by 2020.” • “It would come ... from a combination of the carbon market, new and additional sources of predictable finance and a limited amount of development aid.”
Moreover... • Waxman-Markey Bill: Adaptation Provision (Subtitle E) has two parts: Domestic Adaptation (including three subparts) and an International Climate Change Adaptation Program. • “Purpose of this part is to provide assistance from the United States to the most vulnerable developing countries to adapt to climate change in a manner that promotes and protects the interests of the United States.” • “40-60% of the funds available to the Program “shall be distributed to international funds created under the UNFCCC or an agreement negotiated under the Convention.”
Conclusions • Agreement on adaptation is as important to success in Copenhagen as is agreement on mitigation. • The key bottlenecks are lack of funding, and lack of trust. And they are linked. • Governments now seem to recognise the importance and the bottlenecks. Within the past few weeks, political movement is visible that was unthinkable just months ago. • Will it be enough, or will the recent moves be seen as an effort to placate developing countries for less ambitious mitigation targets?
Thank you very much for your attention. [email protected]
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