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World Global Strategy
6 August 2009
Global Strategy Weekly Some dark deflationary thoughts in the face of market euphoria
Albert Edwards (44) 20 7762 5890 [email protected]
Some interesting developments in recent weeks have been buried beneath the avalanche of bullish chatter. In particular there is increasing evidence that nominal growth rates are sinking deeper into negative territory. Despite the bullish talk, this is the stuff of debt deflation.
Before my summer break, markets were wobbling nervously in reaction to distinctly mixed economic data. What a difference a few weeks make! We dont wish to be a wet blanket: we will probably get a positive GDP print in the second half of this year. But as David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff points out in John Mauldins latest Q
Global asset allocation %
Index
Index neutral
SG Weight
Equities
30-80
60
35
Bonds
20-50
35
50
0-30
5
15
Cash
Source: SG Equity Research
Equity allocation Very Overweight US UK
Overweight Neutral Underweight
Cont Europe Japan Emerging mkts
Very Underweight Source: SG Equity Research
Outside The Box, while we are past the most pronounced part of the downturn, it may still be premature to call for the end of the recession merely because of the prospect of a positive third-quarter GDP result. After all, we saw GDP advance at a 1.5% annual rate in last year's second quarter, and if memory serves us correctly, the NBER did not subsequently declare the end of the recession! What was also so shocking from my perspective is the massive downward revisions to personal income in the GDP release. Both nominal GDP and income growth have now fallen deep into negative territory (see chart below) an integral component of Fischers debt deflation dynamics (more on that later). John Authers in the FTs Long View highlighted a must read piece of research from John Makin, writing for the American Enterprise Institute think-tank - link. Makin went so far as to allege a bogus boom in China. Explaining rapid 15% retail sales growth, Makin points out that under Chinese accounting, goods count as sold when they are shipped to retailers, not when they are bought by consumers. Also, investment spending is inflated since bank loans count towards GDP from the moment the monies are disbursed to companies, rather than when they are spent - even if companies cannot find a use for them or put them into equities. I agree wholeheartedly with the bogus nature of Chinese recovery. If the US in 2007 was a slow motion train wreck with carriage after carriage coming slowly off the rails in turn, China will at some point soon be pile-driving straight into the buffers. Q
The Japanification of the west: US NOMINAL GDP and personal income now declining 16
16
14
IMPORTANT: PLEASE READ DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS BEGINNING ON PAGE 6
14
personal income
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
nominal GDP
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4 70
www.sgresearch.socgen.com
72
Source Datastream
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Global Strategy Weekly
Andrew Lapthorne, our head of Quantitative equity strategy, has once again called the current rally spot on. Forget all the macro noise we all spend so long analysing. He keeps it simple, identifying that is always worth leaning towards the bull tack during the lying season sorry I mean the reporting season (see Time to buy? The impact of the US reporting season on equity performance 9 October 2008 link). Companies still seem so fixated with their silly games of beating expectations on the day that a clear seasonal pattern emerges where the start of positive news can be predicted almost to the day (see chart below). For example, Andrew wrote in his 18 May Global Market Arithmetic (well worth getting for the weekly update of market data as much as for his offbeat predictions link), that one should get out of equities until 13 July. Indeed that was TO THE VERY DAY the start of this current rally. If this seasonal nonsense continues, he says we should be lightening up once again on 24 August! Close seasonal relationship between US company reporting season and eps upgrades 1.8
1400
1.6
1200
1.4
1000
1.2
800
1.0 600
0.8
400
0.6
Upgrades/Downgrades (l.h.scale)
Jul-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
0 May-06
0.2 Jan-06
200 Mar-06
0.4
Number of earnings news announcements
Source: SG Quantitative Research
Aside from this seasonal nonsense, it would be churlish indeed not to recognize that the macro situation has improved markedly. The bulls rightly point to data like the ISM new orders/inventory mismatch as evidence of a bounce in the GDP data in the second half of this year (see chart below). The unprecedented stimulus package has indeed had the desired short-term effect. The question, though, is not so much what happens over the next few months, but whether this can be sustained into 2010. On this the jury is still very much out. US ISM manufacturing new orders minus inventories and GDP growth 30
6
GDP (yoy%, rhscale)
25
5
20
4
15
3
10
2
5
1
0
0
-5
-1
-10
-2
ISM new orders-inventories
-15
-3
-20
-4 90
Source: Datastream
2
6 August 2009
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Global Strategy Weekly
However, amid the supercharged stimulus the bulls continue to be surprised by weakness in both inventories and consumption. The latest Q2 GDP data showed another surprisingly deep $144bn drawdown (following $114bn in Q1) deducted 0.8% annualized from GDP QoQ (and incidentally the same yoy). We continually hear that the Lehmans debacle produced an excessive liquidation of inventory as companies over-reacted to events and that if production schedules are stepped up to prevent additional declines in stocks, this will make substantial additions to GDP growth (e.g. a 4½% addition if Q3 inventory change comes in at zero). This is simply wrong. The inventory liquidation, although large in $bn terms, has NOT been excessive given the unprecedented 18% collapse in sales (see right-hand chart below). The rate of inventory decline, at 8% yoy, has barely exceeded that seen at the nadir of the last shallow recession in 2001/2 when sales fell only around 5% yoy. Manufacturing and wholesale inventory/sales ratios are still excessive (see left-hand chart below). This is exactly the explanation the American Trucking Association Chief Economist Bob Costello gave on the release of the 2½% decline in Junes tonnage - link. That is why recent inventory data has been surprising on the downside and why H2 growth will be weaker than expected. Manufacturers inventory/sales ratio
Business sales and inventory growth yoy %
1.60
15
1.55
10
sales 1.50
5 1.45
0 1.40
-5 1.35
-10
1.30
inventories 1.25 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
-15
09
-20 95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Datastream
The excess inventory situation would not be such an issue if final demand revived. Yet as consumption continues to flat-line, recent data revisions in the latest GDP release show the true extent of shockingly bad consumer fundamentals (see charts below). US wage and salary bill yoy % (pre and post revisions)
US pre-tax personal income yoy % (pre and post revision)
10
10
pre-revisions
8
pre-revision
8
6
6 4
4 2
2 0
0
-2
post revisions -4
post revision
-2
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-4 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Datastream
6 August 2009
3
Global Strategy Weekly
US nominal household incomes are now contracting at an unprecedented rate. The largest component of household income is wages and salaries which had been declining some 1% yoy. But after revisions the statisticians now admit to an unprecedented 4.8% decline! Total pre-tax household income is now recorded as falling 3.4% yoy in June. But arent tax cuts holding up household incomes? I hear you say. Even factoring in massive tax cuts, disposable income is still down 1.3% yoy. Total hours worked in the private sector are down a horrendous 7% yoy. This headlong plunge into negative NOMINAL income and GDP numbers is exactly what happened in Japan and is the stuff of classic Fischer debt deflation (see chart below). As debt/income ratios are excessive and need to be de-leveraged, a declining denominator will be the key driver to the coming Vortex of Debility. So while investors jolly themselves off on a cyclical recovery, tax-cuts have failed to hold the line. In the US and elsewhere, debt deflation is climbing the ramparts and putting the brave but under-armed defenders to the sword. Japanese CPI (ex food and energy, Tokyo yoy%) and nominal GDP growth 10
10
8
8
nominal GDP 6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Core core CPI
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8 80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Datastream
It would be fair to say that in the last six months core inflation has declined less than the market might have expected given extreme lows in capacity utilization. However, the downside surprises are only now just about to start (see chart below). US capacity utilization leads core inflation by about a year 5
4
yoy ch in capacity utilization (rhscale, led 12 months)
2
4
0
3
-2 2
-4 1 -6 0 -8 -1
core PPI yoy%
-10
-2
-11 96
Source: Datastream
4
6 August 2009
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Global Strategy Weekly
So if we are right and a weaker than expected recovery peters out towards the end of this year, then there will be little to hold back the unwelcome ravages of the deflationary hordes. Japan slipped into its negative nominal world almost a decade ago and the rhyming pattern of events a decade later is uncanny (see chart below). Core CPIs (ex food and energy, yoy% ch) 4
4
US
Eurozone
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Japan
-2
-2 92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Datastream
This does not matter if there is no excess debt to pay down (indeed that is the difference between now and the 19th century when consumer prices used to flip regularly from inflation to deflation and back again). But the world is still burdened with the excesses of the last decades debt party. This would also not matter if the bear market in US equity valuations had fully played out in March of this year. But whereas on the Graham and Dodd PE measure the European equity markets became dirt cheap, the US did not. In this view of the world, as Jeremy Grantham mentioned in his latest newsletter: we are in for several lean years in which the market will be looking for an excuse to be cheap link. One final thought. Andrew Lapthorne tells me that, so far in the reporting round, 80% of nonfinancial companies are beating expectations. Yet 55% of these companies are missing their sales projections. The circle can only be squared by job losses. No wonder consumer confidence has barely recovered and no wonder nominal household incomes are now contracting at such a rapid rate. Roll on deflation. US consumer confidence 85
-5
-10 80 -15
-20 75 -25
Michigan (rhscale) -30
70
-35 65
ABC
-40
-45 60 -50
-55
55 A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
Source: Datastream
6 August 2009
5
Global Strategy Weekly
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale (SG) believe it to be clear, fair and not misleading. SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to then, other than the authors of this report, may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. Each author of this report is not permitted to trade in or hold any of the investments or related investments which are the subject of this document. SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers. The views of SG reflected in this document may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. This research document is not intended for use by or targeted at retail customers. Should a retail customer obtain a copy of this report they should not base their investment decisions solely on the basis of this document but must seek independent financial advice. Important notice: The circumstances in which materials provided by SG Fixed & Forex Research, SG Commodity Research, SG Convertible Research, SG Technical Research and SG Equity Derivatives Research have been produced are such (for example because of reporting or remuneration structures or the physical location of the author of the material) that it is not appropriate to characterise it as independent investment research as referred to in European MIF directive and that it should be treated as a marketing material even if it contains a research recommendation (« recommandation dinvestissement à caractère promotionnel »). However, it must be made clear that all publications issued by SG will be clear, fair, and not misleading. Analyst Certification: Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Notice to French Investors: This publication is issued in France by or through Société Générale ("SG") which is authorised by the CECEI and regulated by the AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers). Notice to UK investors: This publication is issued in the United Kingdom by or through Société Générale ("SG") London Branch which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its UK business. Notice To US Investors: This report is intended only for major US institutional investors pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6. Any US person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with or through SG Americas Securities, LLC (SGAS) 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. (212)-278-6000. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PRODUCED BY SOCIETE GENERALE AND NOT SGAS. Notice to Japanese Investors: This report is distributed in Japan by Société Générale Securities (North Pacific) Ltd., Tokyo Branch, which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. The products mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in Japan and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Notice to Australian Investors: Société Générale Australia Branch (ABN 71 092 516 286) (SG) takes responsibility for publishing this document. SG holds an AFSL no. 236651 issued under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Act"). The information contained in this newsletter is only directed to recipients who are wholesale clients as defined under the Act. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: Please refer to our website: http:\\www.sgresearch.socgen.com http://www.sgcib.com. Copyright: The Société Générale Group 2009. All rights reserved.
6
6 August 2009
6 August 2009
Global Strategy Weekly Some dark deflationary thoughts in the face of market euphoria
Albert Edwards (44) 20 7762 5890 [email protected]
Some interesting developments in recent weeks have been buried beneath the avalanche of bullish chatter. In particular there is increasing evidence that nominal growth rates are sinking deeper into negative territory. Despite the bullish talk, this is the stuff of debt deflation.
Before my summer break, markets were wobbling nervously in reaction to distinctly mixed economic data. What a difference a few weeks make! We dont wish to be a wet blanket: we will probably get a positive GDP print in the second half of this year. But as David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff points out in John Mauldins latest Q
Global asset allocation %
Index
Index neutral
SG Weight
Equities
30-80
60
35
Bonds
20-50
35
50
0-30
5
15
Cash
Source: SG Equity Research
Equity allocation Very Overweight US UK
Overweight Neutral Underweight
Cont Europe Japan Emerging mkts
Very Underweight Source: SG Equity Research
Outside The Box, while we are past the most pronounced part of the downturn, it may still be premature to call for the end of the recession merely because of the prospect of a positive third-quarter GDP result. After all, we saw GDP advance at a 1.5% annual rate in last year's second quarter, and if memory serves us correctly, the NBER did not subsequently declare the end of the recession! What was also so shocking from my perspective is the massive downward revisions to personal income in the GDP release. Both nominal GDP and income growth have now fallen deep into negative territory (see chart below) an integral component of Fischers debt deflation dynamics (more on that later). John Authers in the FTs Long View highlighted a must read piece of research from John Makin, writing for the American Enterprise Institute think-tank - link. Makin went so far as to allege a bogus boom in China. Explaining rapid 15% retail sales growth, Makin points out that under Chinese accounting, goods count as sold when they are shipped to retailers, not when they are bought by consumers. Also, investment spending is inflated since bank loans count towards GDP from the moment the monies are disbursed to companies, rather than when they are spent - even if companies cannot find a use for them or put them into equities. I agree wholeheartedly with the bogus nature of Chinese recovery. If the US in 2007 was a slow motion train wreck with carriage after carriage coming slowly off the rails in turn, China will at some point soon be pile-driving straight into the buffers. Q
The Japanification of the west: US NOMINAL GDP and personal income now declining 16
16
14
IMPORTANT: PLEASE READ DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS BEGINNING ON PAGE 6
14
personal income
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
nominal GDP
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4 70
www.sgresearch.socgen.com
72
Source Datastream
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Global Strategy Weekly
Andrew Lapthorne, our head of Quantitative equity strategy, has once again called the current rally spot on. Forget all the macro noise we all spend so long analysing. He keeps it simple, identifying that is always worth leaning towards the bull tack during the lying season sorry I mean the reporting season (see Time to buy? The impact of the US reporting season on equity performance 9 October 2008 link). Companies still seem so fixated with their silly games of beating expectations on the day that a clear seasonal pattern emerges where the start of positive news can be predicted almost to the day (see chart below). For example, Andrew wrote in his 18 May Global Market Arithmetic (well worth getting for the weekly update of market data as much as for his offbeat predictions link), that one should get out of equities until 13 July. Indeed that was TO THE VERY DAY the start of this current rally. If this seasonal nonsense continues, he says we should be lightening up once again on 24 August! Close seasonal relationship between US company reporting season and eps upgrades 1.8
1400
1.6
1200
1.4
1000
1.2
800
1.0 600
0.8
400
0.6
Upgrades/Downgrades (l.h.scale)
Jul-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
0 May-06
0.2 Jan-06
200 Mar-06
0.4
Number of earnings news announcements
Source: SG Quantitative Research
Aside from this seasonal nonsense, it would be churlish indeed not to recognize that the macro situation has improved markedly. The bulls rightly point to data like the ISM new orders/inventory mismatch as evidence of a bounce in the GDP data in the second half of this year (see chart below). The unprecedented stimulus package has indeed had the desired short-term effect. The question, though, is not so much what happens over the next few months, but whether this can be sustained into 2010. On this the jury is still very much out. US ISM manufacturing new orders minus inventories and GDP growth 30
6
GDP (yoy%, rhscale)
25
5
20
4
15
3
10
2
5
1
0
0
-5
-1
-10
-2
ISM new orders-inventories
-15
-3
-20
-4 90
Source: Datastream
2
6 August 2009
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Global Strategy Weekly
However, amid the supercharged stimulus the bulls continue to be surprised by weakness in both inventories and consumption. The latest Q2 GDP data showed another surprisingly deep $144bn drawdown (following $114bn in Q1) deducted 0.8% annualized from GDP QoQ (and incidentally the same yoy). We continually hear that the Lehmans debacle produced an excessive liquidation of inventory as companies over-reacted to events and that if production schedules are stepped up to prevent additional declines in stocks, this will make substantial additions to GDP growth (e.g. a 4½% addition if Q3 inventory change comes in at zero). This is simply wrong. The inventory liquidation, although large in $bn terms, has NOT been excessive given the unprecedented 18% collapse in sales (see right-hand chart below). The rate of inventory decline, at 8% yoy, has barely exceeded that seen at the nadir of the last shallow recession in 2001/2 when sales fell only around 5% yoy. Manufacturing and wholesale inventory/sales ratios are still excessive (see left-hand chart below). This is exactly the explanation the American Trucking Association Chief Economist Bob Costello gave on the release of the 2½% decline in Junes tonnage - link. That is why recent inventory data has been surprising on the downside and why H2 growth will be weaker than expected. Manufacturers inventory/sales ratio
Business sales and inventory growth yoy %
1.60
15
1.55
10
sales 1.50
5 1.45
0 1.40
-5 1.35
-10
1.30
inventories 1.25 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
-15
09
-20 95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Datastream
The excess inventory situation would not be such an issue if final demand revived. Yet as consumption continues to flat-line, recent data revisions in the latest GDP release show the true extent of shockingly bad consumer fundamentals (see charts below). US wage and salary bill yoy % (pre and post revisions)
US pre-tax personal income yoy % (pre and post revision)
10
10
pre-revisions
8
pre-revision
8
6
6 4
4 2
2 0
0
-2
post revisions -4
post revision
-2
-6 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-4 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Datastream
6 August 2009
3
Global Strategy Weekly
US nominal household incomes are now contracting at an unprecedented rate. The largest component of household income is wages and salaries which had been declining some 1% yoy. But after revisions the statisticians now admit to an unprecedented 4.8% decline! Total pre-tax household income is now recorded as falling 3.4% yoy in June. But arent tax cuts holding up household incomes? I hear you say. Even factoring in massive tax cuts, disposable income is still down 1.3% yoy. Total hours worked in the private sector are down a horrendous 7% yoy. This headlong plunge into negative NOMINAL income and GDP numbers is exactly what happened in Japan and is the stuff of classic Fischer debt deflation (see chart below). As debt/income ratios are excessive and need to be de-leveraged, a declining denominator will be the key driver to the coming Vortex of Debility. So while investors jolly themselves off on a cyclical recovery, tax-cuts have failed to hold the line. In the US and elsewhere, debt deflation is climbing the ramparts and putting the brave but under-armed defenders to the sword. Japanese CPI (ex food and energy, Tokyo yoy%) and nominal GDP growth 10
10
8
8
nominal GDP 6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Core core CPI
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8 80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Datastream
It would be fair to say that in the last six months core inflation has declined less than the market might have expected given extreme lows in capacity utilization. However, the downside surprises are only now just about to start (see chart below). US capacity utilization leads core inflation by about a year 5
4
yoy ch in capacity utilization (rhscale, led 12 months)
2
4
0
3
-2 2
-4 1 -6 0 -8 -1
core PPI yoy%
-10
-2
-11 96
Source: Datastream
4
6 August 2009
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Global Strategy Weekly
So if we are right and a weaker than expected recovery peters out towards the end of this year, then there will be little to hold back the unwelcome ravages of the deflationary hordes. Japan slipped into its negative nominal world almost a decade ago and the rhyming pattern of events a decade later is uncanny (see chart below). Core CPIs (ex food and energy, yoy% ch) 4
4
US
Eurozone
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Japan
-2
-2 92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Datastream
This does not matter if there is no excess debt to pay down (indeed that is the difference between now and the 19th century when consumer prices used to flip regularly from inflation to deflation and back again). But the world is still burdened with the excesses of the last decades debt party. This would also not matter if the bear market in US equity valuations had fully played out in March of this year. But whereas on the Graham and Dodd PE measure the European equity markets became dirt cheap, the US did not. In this view of the world, as Jeremy Grantham mentioned in his latest newsletter: we are in for several lean years in which the market will be looking for an excuse to be cheap link. One final thought. Andrew Lapthorne tells me that, so far in the reporting round, 80% of nonfinancial companies are beating expectations. Yet 55% of these companies are missing their sales projections. The circle can only be squared by job losses. No wonder consumer confidence has barely recovered and no wonder nominal household incomes are now contracting at such a rapid rate. Roll on deflation. US consumer confidence 85
-5
-10 80 -15
-20 75 -25
Michigan (rhscale) -30
70
-35 65
ABC
-40
-45 60 -50
-55
55 A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
Source: Datastream
6 August 2009
5
Global Strategy Weekly
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale (SG) believe it to be clear, fair and not misleading. SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to then, other than the authors of this report, may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. Each author of this report is not permitted to trade in or hold any of the investments or related investments which are the subject of this document. SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers. The views of SG reflected in this document may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. This research document is not intended for use by or targeted at retail customers. Should a retail customer obtain a copy of this report they should not base their investment decisions solely on the basis of this document but must seek independent financial advice. Important notice: The circumstances in which materials provided by SG Fixed & Forex Research, SG Commodity Research, SG Convertible Research, SG Technical Research and SG Equity Derivatives Research have been produced are such (for example because of reporting or remuneration structures or the physical location of the author of the material) that it is not appropriate to characterise it as independent investment research as referred to in European MIF directive and that it should be treated as a marketing material even if it contains a research recommendation (« recommandation dinvestissement à caractère promotionnel »). However, it must be made clear that all publications issued by SG will be clear, fair, and not misleading. Analyst Certification: Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Notice to French Investors: This publication is issued in France by or through Société Générale ("SG") which is authorised by the CECEI and regulated by the AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers). Notice to UK investors: This publication is issued in the United Kingdom by or through Société Générale ("SG") London Branch which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its UK business. Notice To US Investors: This report is intended only for major US institutional investors pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6. Any US person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with or through SG Americas Securities, LLC (SGAS) 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. (212)-278-6000. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS PRODUCED BY SOCIETE GENERALE AND NOT SGAS. Notice to Japanese Investors: This report is distributed in Japan by Société Générale Securities (North Pacific) Ltd., Tokyo Branch, which is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. The products mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in Japan and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Notice to Australian Investors: Société Générale Australia Branch (ABN 71 092 516 286) (SG) takes responsibility for publishing this document. SG holds an AFSL no. 236651 issued under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Act"). The information contained in this newsletter is only directed to recipients who are wholesale clients as defined under the Act. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: Please refer to our website: http:\\www.sgresearch.socgen.com http://www.sgcib.com. Copyright: The Société Générale Group 2009. All rights reserved.
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6 August 2009
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