Wilson M. Fortaleza: A Forum On The Dcwd-hedcor Issue Battle Over The Panigan-tamugan Rivers Of Davao City

POWER SHORTAGE & DISEMPOWERIN G SOLUTIONS Wilson M. Fortaleza Freedom From Debt Coalition June 23, 2009, Davao City

A FORUM ON THE DCWD-HEDCOR ISSUE BATTLE OVER THE PANIGAN-TAMUGAN RIVERS OF DAVAO CITY

FDC frameworks On Power  The power industry, due to its inherent nature, should be placed at the realm of public domain and its products and services remain as public goods.  The principle strongly pursues the progressive role of the State – that it cannot and should not consign the industry entirely to private hands and let the market determine what is good for the public.  FDC is also for a power shift – from dirty to clean and renewable power

FDC frameworks On Water  Upholding the people’s right to water  Water, the same with power, are public goods that should remain in public domain

Power Situation As of Dec. 2007  Installed generating capacity is 15,937 MW  Dependable capacity is 13,205 MW Source: DOE

Power Situation PEAK DEMAND

Source: PDP-DOE

Power Situation ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE

Power Situation GRID CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE

Power Sales

7,890 GWh

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Demand forecast Grid

2 006

2 007

2 008

2009

2010

Luzon

6,72 6,98 7,25 7,552 7,878 8 1 2

Visayas

1,15 1,21 1,28 1,364 1,448 4 4 9

Mindanao 1,29 1,36 1,44 1,525 1,620 3 3 0 PHILIPPI NES

9,17 9,55 9,98 10,44 10,94 5 8 1 1 6

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

Demand forecast (Mindanao)

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

How is demand projected?

 Historically, government’s demand projection is poor (Top to bottom approach). Poor planning is also a factor.  DOE makes use of an aggregation of the demand projection from the Distribution Development Plans(DDPs) from distribution utilities plus projections from directlyconnected non-utilities.  TransCo’s forecast is based on econometric modeling with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as main explanatory variable.

Supply-Demand forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand forecast  Demand projection is always on the “High Demand Case”  Both cases show a radical decline in the demand forecast for Luzon, owing to the very low projection of the Meralco, which demand covers around 70% of the aggregate demand in the Luzon grid. Source: Transmission Development Plan, 2007

Supply-Demand forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Dependable Capacity in Mindanao

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

“Teetering” into recession

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

Sharp Fall GDP AND GNP (in million PhP)

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

All industry performance GDP by industry origin (in million PhP)

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

The cost of wrong projections  Consumers are made to pay the full cost of installed capacities whether they are consumed or not, or even those that were not generated at all.  We also pay for all the risks  The case of the IPP contracts which we were made to pay through the PPA.

The Mindanao Grid

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

The Mindanao Grid  In TransCos CAPEX Program approved by the ERC, the program is mainly driven by load growth .  Of the estimated P56.23-B, 82% or P46-B are for projects necessary to meet load growth within the planning horizon. (40% for Luzon, 28% for Visayas, and 32% for Mindanao.  For the projects for implementation, however, Capex driven by load growth is not as high as the ongoing projects as it accounts for only 58%. Source: Transmission Development Plan,  2007 In Mindanao, all of the projects

for

“Dropped” inter-connection project

Source: Transmission Development Plan, 2007

TransCo’s ongoing projects in the Mindanao Grid  Abaga-Kirahon 230 kV Transmission Line to provide additional transmission corridor to the 676.4 MW Agus Hydro Complex which accounts for 70% of total dependable capacity for the Mindanao Grid. The Agus 2-Kibawe and AbagaTogoloan 138 kV lines serve as Agus’ link to the grid.  The bombing of Agus 2-Kibawe line resulted in huge power swing to the other corridor. The Abaga-Togoloan line will not be able to carry 70% of the 90% load as a result of the Agus 2Kibawe outage.  The project is expected to be completed June Source: Transmission Development Plan, 2008 and would serve as initial step in

Power planning/Plant Sitting  Choosing as site for a new power plant is an important part of electric system planning. There are plants that are site-specific such as hydro, geothermal, wind among others.  Social-acceptability must also be considered.

War over water "The wars of the next century will be about Ismail Serageldin, water."

Vice president of the World Bank

Water for ALL  Power can be produced from many sources  Although the globe is made up mainly of water, potable water is not a finite resources.

 Global consumption of water is doubling  Available every 20 years, more freshwater amounts to less than one-half than twice the rate of of 1 percent of all the human population growth. water on earth. The

Making a choice Why make us choose between a dark and waterless future when the answer is obviously clear:

Nobody desires such kind of world!

Is there a win-win solution? “Kung ayaw may dahilan, Kung gusto maraming paraan”

A proposal for a MultiStakeholders Development Planning Process  Panay Case (Separate Presentation)  Naga Case (Participatory Planning)

Thank You!

End of presentation