Visionary Leadership: Strategy Forming In An Uncertain World

VISIONARY LEADERSHIP STRATEGY FORMING IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

• Ability to take decisions about direction and determine broad principles that will guide action over the long term – make choices that have long term influence on the future of the organisation – increasingly required to make these choices within greater levels of complexity and uncertainty

• Today’s uncertain strategic environment requires a new approach to strategic management – continually in touch with shifting strategic context – ability to realign organisation and change strategy – increasing need to engage others in the setting of those directions and strategies, and maintaining alignment with that shifting environment

THERE ARE NO FACTS ABOUT THE FUTURE

research listen dialogue Seek to understand

question assumptions mental models Open to possibility

Learning Tools

S technological T economic E Environmental E political P specific S social

Revisiting the Past – Malaysia in 1979 •

What was Malaysia like for your parents and grandparents?

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What has changed in Malaysia and the wider world? What has stayed the same? – Values, attitudes and worldviews, as well as trends, events and “things”, – What surprised us, what worked as planned?

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How does this history influence the Malaysia of 2008?

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What strategic issues carry through to the present and the future?

Understanding the Present • • • • • •

What is happening? What are we delivering and to whom? How is our current system performing in our niche? – How well are we delivering and what does it take? What are our current capabilities and gaps? What are our critical alliances and competitors? What is our degree of strategic alignment ? What tools can you use? • Environmental scanning • Competitive and business intelligence reports • Trend analysis • Customer surveys • Systems mapping.

Business Ecosystem

Niche

Internal    Capability    

Scanning the Ecosystem •

What factors directly affect your ability to deliver for your clients? – What influences the services you deliver, how and to whom you deliver them? – What forces influence your customers, clients, stakeholders and competitors? – What is changing / what is staying the same? – What trends can you see? What is the nature of the trend? What is driving it?

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How does your organisational capability “fit” with our Niche and the wider business ecosystem? What tools can you use?

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What strategic issues does this create in the present? Will they carry through into the future?

• Environmental scanning • Competitive and business intelligence reports • Trend analysis • Customer surveys • Systems mapping.

The Strategic Navigation Model Business Ecosystem

Strategic Issues

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Preferred Future

  Internal

Assumed Future

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Capability    

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Strategic Issues Hames and Oka, 1998

What Future ? • Probable Future (assumed or official future) – The future we think will happen • Preferable Future (desired future or vision) – The future we want to happen and are actively trying to create • Possible Future (alternate futures or scenarios) – The range of futures that might happen and within which our strategies will play out and we will be working to create our preferred future

Preferred or Assumed Future ? • What will Malaysia be like in 2039 ?

Preferred Future • What is your vision for Malaysia in 2039 ?

Scenario Creation Process Strategic response

??? Focal question Implication  Direct s  factors Early Environmental issues Critical uncertainties Scenario logics

indicators Scenario stories

Focusing Questions •

Guides and Frames the Scenario work flow -

•

It may be obvious -

•

decisions which need to be made knowledge about future to make those decisions verify with key decision makers

Or needs to be ironed out -

Interview key stake holders interview remarkable people

• Define the Scope and Timescale of the Enquiry

Environmental Scan Building on your scan of the business ecosystem, brainstorm the wider factors that affect our focussing question

Global Trends • • • • • •

Population growth and change Growing gap between rich and poor Decline of cheap abundant energy Global environmental degradation Focus on security Rapid development of innovations • Accelerated advances in science and technology • Communications and IT • Medical technology

Another Perspective •

• • • • • •

Acceleration - and the focus on innovation/fashion/ novelty Individualism and Customisation Materialism Privatisation / de-institutionalisation of work Blurring of boundaries Sustainability Shift to knowledge or creative society • Lack of trust in institutions • Crossover and convergence of technologies - Nanotech, biotech, info tech, materials technology and cognitive science

Changing Organizations • Control based theories

- TQM, six Sigma, outcome focus, governance, business process redesign • Market based theories - Customer focus, client service, market segment, Porter’s five forces, competitive intelligence • People based theories - Participative management, team focus, learning org •Living organism theories - Complex adaptive systems models, strategic navigation, systems thinking •Integrated theories - Fusion manager

Looking for Driving Forces “ The long term trend is so broad and powerful that the chance of it being slowed is unlikely” Robert Theobold

• Deep Forces shaping the future • Often emerge from conjunction of trends • Can be based on insight or weak signal • They will vary in importance with the issue or focus of your enquiry.

The most important and most uncertain Very important

importance

Pretty certain

certainty Not very important

- 21 -

Pretty uncertain

Writing the Scenario Stories

CHOOSE A SCENARIO o WRITE THE SCENARIO - What might it be like in this world ? - A name and a Motto/Mantra - The story of this world example : Plot, Time line of critical events, Characters and decisions.

What is this world like ? In your scenario teams Explore your world - What is this world like ? - How do the two primary assumptions interact ? - How do they affect the other aspects of this world ? - What is the nature of this world ? - What does it feel like ? - What is valued ? - What is happening in this world ?

Name Your Scenario • Reflect the Nature of the world - Immediately evoke the story, feel and sense of this world - Like a nursery rhyme or movie title

• Are “Neutral” - do not imply a positive or negative story

• Will be understood by your audience

Tell the story • Construct your story - create a time line of events that have created this world - Develop some characters - Decide the plot, what is the story you want to tell - Embed the characters - Build the story around the timeline (how did we get there) or describe the world in 2038 - Create a story with a beginning middle and end, with good and bad things

• Or just let it flow / brainstorm in your groups

What story is most challenging • Long boom – utopian futures • • • • • • • • •

Gloom and doom – pessimistic futures Crash and burn Crash and Recover – slow or fast Burn Out Slow slide or slow lift Chaos reigns – volatility / fire fighting Flip over – total shift - transformation Steady state – balance – no change Never really ever gets of the ground

Construct a timeline • What are we pretty sure will happen ? - Map it over the time line

• What has to happen to get to this world in 2039 ? -

Technological discoveries Changes in political power, organizations, institutions Changes in public attitude Environmental disasters, security/terrorist attack

• What would make this happen ?

Early Indicators • These are signs or measures that would indicate that this scenario is beginning to eventuate • Identify the assumptions, core logic, big changes, shifts or turning points in each scenario - The time line will help with this

• • • •

Identify the small and large signs that will relate to each other Identify where these signs may originate Identify potential research/scanning sources Think about how this scanning would be done

Practice the future •

Step into this world, what is it telling you, what would you be doing in this world ? - What are the issues, risks, challenges, opportunities ? - Is your vision still appropriate ? - What strategies would be appropriate ?

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What is your strategic assessment ?

Rehearsing the Future - developing strategy •

• • • • • • •

What would be asked /demanded of us ? What opportunities exist ? What would the challenges be ? What could we do or not do ? What should we do or not do ? What new strategies emerge ? How do existing vision and strategies fit into this world ? Are current strategic issues still issues ? What would we do or recommend to be done ?

Return to the Present Review and discuss all options • Identify those that are robust in any future •

- either win or no loss

• Identify those that are winners in one world and disastrous in another - these can be risky strategies

•Discuss your options - use the ranking as a guide to your judgement

Present Your Story •

• • • • • • •

Name 2 Premises Mantra 5 – 6 key characteristics ½ page description 1 page story Strategic Assessment You will have 5 – 10 minutes to do this.

Prepare your Presentation • Key messages • Scenario Name • Scenario Logic • Tell the story • Discuss Implications and recommendations

It’s 2039 describe your world and tell its story Primary Assumptions •. •.

Key Characteristics. •. •.

•. •. Our mantra / motto…

In brief… eg This is a world where…

Eg. • A day in this world • A news report from this world/letter/ blog/video conference to someone from another time and/or place. • Introduce the people and the world … “Hello, my name is… and I’d like to tell you about my world…”

Indicators Come back to 2009 and for each scenario identify what we would see if this scenario was beginning to eventuate

Include trends, events, decisions, statements, attitude changes etc

Navigation Meetings Presentation to Executive Team •

Each Team will present its scenario and strategic assessment

•

When not presenting, you are to take the role of the executive team advising the Prime Minister of the future of Malaysia and the Malaysian Public Sector - You will consider the strategic implications of ALL scenarios on the current vision, strategies and make appropriate recommendations.

What are your Strategic Options ? Strategy

Scenario A

Scenario B

Confidence – no risk, big winner Caution – some risk, some gain Courage – high risk and or low gain Neutral – no impact Negative – counter productive

Scenario C

Scenario D

RECOMMENDATIONS

Action we can take with Confidence:

caution:

courage: Action that should be delayed Further Research (what questions does this raise, what else do we need to know?)

Strategies/actions

Rank and Compare Your Strategic Options Strategy

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

What else do we need to know ? •

• • • •

What evidence ? What research questions ? What didn’t we think about ? How can we drill down, get above it or refine our question ? What is our scanning showing us ? - No indicators ? Have we missed something ? - Some indicators – is the greater clarity around the nature of uncertainty

THANK YOU AND GOOD LUCK