Usc Faculty Lecture 7

Faculty Seminar on Virtual Worlds Episode 7 - The Future - 4/22/08 cory ondrejka - [email protected]

this is our last session, so interrupt and ask questions!

the future

or, more precisely

(informed) guesswork on the (many) futures of virtual worlds

where “future” == “5 or more years from now”

why 5 or more?

lots happening in next 1-2 years

the 800-lb

Gorilla will do something

open source will continue to improve and explore design space

100 new kids worlds

100 new kids worlds

($650 million == much interest)

web game worlds will build on what the kids worlds have done

web game worlds will build on what the kids worlds have done

(and explore secondary markets)

[insert thousands of advertisement worlds here]

many web + virtual world and virtual world + web mashups

new players

more ways to build you

and if we give ourselves 1-2 years then certainly

(almost certainly)

spore will launch

maybe even sony home

(resulting in game developers talking about user generated content)

but we know all this

so it isn’t very interesting

and doesn’t help us

identify research areas build new curricula make long-term investments

so what happens if we look out further into the future?

first off, we’ll be wrong

a lot

we’re wired wrong

bad at long term predictions exponential reality

linear predictions

less short term change more long term change than we predict

worse, bad predictions compound reality of compound errors

we think we’ll be this wrong

so what can we do?

we can look at trends

(in this case, moore’s law)

technology adoption

in 5-10 years, most people will have a mobile phone and access to the internet

all of these trends point to dramatic increases in computing availability and performance

consider that 5-10 years means 3-6 doublings

so 8 - 64 times cheaper, faster, or longer lasting

between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude

25x can be hard to visualize

25x can be hard to visualize

25x mips, same size

25x can be hard to visualize

25x mips, same size

25x can be hard to visualize

25x smaller, same perf

25x mips, same size

25x can be hard to visualize

25x smaller, same perf

25x mips, same size

25x more storage is nearly a terrabyte 25x battery life is 8 months of standby, 8 continuous days of talking

reality will be a blend of these, but that’s a lot of horsepower

everywhere

everyone

what other trends?

people are wearing technology

not just geeks

everyone and anywhere

this makes me think we’ll overcome geordi-ness

and solve displays

and we’ll be used to wearing sensors

so this will also be a camera, microphone, rfid reader, etc

and the camera will be 3D (see Mitch Kapor’s recent YouTube SL video)

sensors also mean input devices

one more critical trend

everybody wants the web to do more and work better

(they may have bad definitions)

but lots of people are working on solving hard internet problems

identity

payment systems

seamless installation

online and offline transitions (which also means sync)

sensors and smart gadgets

so, now can we talk about virtual worlds?

what are the trends here?

building the content accessing virtual worlds uses hard problems to solve

filling them with stuff

trends impacting four approaches to building content passive user generated active user generated stage magic simulation

passive user generated (build content from people’s behavior)

can be macro or micro

passive user generated becomes pervasive as photos and movies are geotagged and captured from wearable, always-on devices

wearable + sensors

this will be a camera constantly streaming to flickr

more broadly, as more behavior generates news feeds or data streams, world content can be built from that behavior

i.e.

(perhaps time to consider the privacy, legal, and emotional impacts of collecting this data)

and what additional content we could capture

if we geotag photos, what about also recording

audio and conversation going on during the photos? (aka context tagging)

heart rate, galvanic response, and brain activity? (aka emotion tagging)

etc etc etc

all of these could endow virtual places with context, feelings, and life

active user generated

active user generated will rely on more blending of real-world data, better input devices, and better collaboration

but we’re just scratching the surface of what “better” means

content generation trend towards blended opportunities rather than false dichotomies of “mirror world” versus “virtual world”

stage magic (content made by highly paid team of designers, programmers, and artists)

stage magic will leverage increasing computing resources (ie, more complex AI, pathing, etc) but will also blur boundaries with the real world and passive creation

simulation (and procedural, physics, etc)

simulation and procedural content creation is just beginning to build the required theoretical frameworks to move beyond simple demos

(talking about content generation, not gameplay, before the spore fanboys stone me)

(also, spore is a very well executed blend of stage magic and simulation)

so how do we access them?

this one is simple

browser and mobile not only way but will be the dominant way

virtual worlds are communication

communication must be pervasive

don’t be a sad panda, separate apps aren’t going away

but dedicated clients will be the exception, not the norm

virtual worlds that provide sufficient levels of interactivity creativity commerce community in browsers and mobile devices

will capture much larger audiences

they key is recognizing the special nature of real-time presence and synchronous communication and how to blend between the virtual and the real

(which means thinking about the implications for computer science and engineering curricula, not to mention chip and os design)

note that this won’t always be 3D

consider selling books

3D doesn’t necessarily improve this

(and we have proof)

but presence and community could

especially when we bring our communities from here

with us where ever we go

which guides the next question

what are we using them for?

let’s count on a key element

presence

and beyond

where you are who you’re near what you see what you hear

and beyond

where you are who you’re near what you see what you hear

senses position senses motion senses attention

and beyond

where you are who you’re near what you see what you hear

can display data overlay on world blend reality

senses position senses motion senses attention

and all of this data stored and shared

today “life logging” is unusual

(and blending the data into virtual worlds really so)

but what about when that’s the default behavior of always on devices?

especially as virtual worlds continue to blend play and work

with more twitter- and rss-like ways of using them all the time

which is already starting

and can find balance between play and work communication and experience

and solve a few “minor” problems

(there are many challenges, but let’s go with two)

usability search

usability, especially on mobile devices, is going to be tough

(and usability != appearance)

new input devices will help

but it’s time for new metaphors

but it’s time for new metaphors a zillion dollars to simulate a table is the best we can do?

40 years ago mouse + keyboard was the new hotness!

in 1968, the mouse + keyboard was the new hotness!

(and took an incredibly innovative, interdisciplinary group years to invent)

(yes, I am a Doug Engelbart fanboy)

but 40 years later, how did doug use Second Life?

plus

plus

we need to do better

search

a lot of virtual world search problems look like local and social network search

“find me something fun to do”

also deep questions about defining what “likeness” means in 3D

“rez me a chair”

“no, a newer chair”

how alike are these?

so, to sum up...

future virtual worlds will

have more of the real world available as content

(not necessarily mirror worlds)

will be blended to varying degrees with the real world

(blended as augmented reality, alternate reality, and virtual reality)

be available to you everywhere

(on any computer or cell phone connected to the web)

be a basic component of communication

(which people will use for work, play, and games)

(this does not mean supplanting either the web or games, but instead virtual worlds become pervasive complements to both)

let’s check these in 2015

(when we have flying cars and jetpacks)

stop talking now

[email protected] http://ondrejka.net