Usc Faculty Lecture 2
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Faculty Seminar on Virtual Worlds Episode 2 - Second Life - 2/12/08 cory ondrejka - [email protected]
a quick review
online versus virtual community versus world
millions of reasons
Online Game
Online Communities
Online Worlds
crapload
many
lots a few
some rules of thumb for world-wide numbers: Virtual worlds: 20 million MMOs: 50 million Social networks: 100 million (with lots of overlap)
gold in dem darn (virtual) hills
amateur versus expert
don’t make me use the baby seal slide again
(because I will)
participation Web Mainstream Media 65.00
48.75
32.50
16.25
0
Wikipedia Second Life
Sims
Open Source
any questions lurking?
it’s story time!
the second life story
good thing we’re in la
8 years so far
which isn’t that long
as mitch likes to point out
(who’s been through this)
think about the pc
think about the pc
think about the pc 1976
think about the pc 1976
think about the pc 1976
1990
15 years
so we’re only half way
(maybe 2/3)
but, like all exponentials...
but, like all exponentials...
but, like all exponentials...
vaguely interesting
but, like all exponentials... very interesting
vaguely interesting
plus, sl gives plenty of material
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2000
compression 2000
compression 2000 grid computing
compression 2000 cellular automata
grid computing
“the rig”
compression 2000 cellular automata
grid computing
“the forest”
2000 scorecard: no users no exchange 5 employees
2000 scorecard: no users no exchange 5 employees
people signed up users trading L$ and US$ Linden Lab employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2001
building 2001
building 2001 avatars
second life was about people
even the most beautiful place
was not as interesting as people
scripting, too
2001 scorecard: no users no exchange 10 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2002
2002 was a very good year
2002 was about people!
2002 was about people!
2002 was about people!
Alpha!
and people meant...
creation community collaboration
virtually no screen shots from this era
2002 scorecard: 145(!) users no exchange 20 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2003
remember 2002?
creation community collaboration
2003 had more people
creation community collaboration
however, since communities are not scale free...
creation community collaboration often drove...
cheating combat boundaries
do good fences make good neighbors?
the jessie wall
the jessie wall
the jessie wall
this story only survives because of james au
embedded in a virtual world
how to preserve the ephemeral?
Second Life launched on June 23, 2003
June 23rd is now a holiday in Second Life
Second Life launched with less than 400 users
and didn’t grow much
evolve or else
we asked for help
we asked for help
we asked for help
we asked for help
“it’s stupid to ask people to build a world and to not let them own it!”
oops
so we studied
macro economics
so we studied
macro economics
creative destruction
so we studied
macro economics
creative destruction
so we studied
“mystery of capital”
and evolved both the intellectual property approach and the business model
intellectual property
intellectual property
Yochai says “$#@%?@!!”
business model
enables two broad lines of study
ip rules in the information economy
entrepreneurship in the information economy
2003 scorecard: 2743 users no exchange 25 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2004
entrepreneurship
entrepreneurship
branding
breaking the magic circle
really breaking
2004 was about the individual using second life
2004 scorecard: 18,876 users $5,000/mo exchange 40 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2005
three things happened in 2005
Second Life became free
as in beer
educators discovered SL
in a big way
particularly via GLS and Serious Games
and sl started growing
businesses followed the people
but just a little
though virtually no real-world brands (yet)
government
and music
tringo
broadcasting identity
2005 was a year of building
2005 scorecard: 123,438 users $500,000/mo exchange 60 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2006
the knee in the curve
the year of “firsts”
auto company
hotel chain
clothing company
concert
cc concert
fashion magazines
news organization
harvard class
millionaire
where did this all come from?
despite popular perception it was NOT the Linden uber marketing machine
I wish we had that much power
distributed entrepreneurs
plus everyone else
gladwell would be proud
gartner, too
2006
2006 scorecard: 3,000,000 users $5,000,000/mo exchange 100 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
and then things got exciting
2007
freedom!
(as in speech)
second life client open sourced
big business arrived
these guys got acquired/funded
csi:ny
fortune 500 bingo
mix of training, marketing, collaboration
lots of questions: efficacy of training? impact of trust? brands and community
and how does voice mix in?
over the top
made more complicated by the rest of the world arriving
and by increasing regulatory interest
gambling adult activities banking
all of cyberlaw’s shortcomings
plus the metaphor
and lack of standards
what does user mean?
2007 scorecard: 11,000,000 users $8,000,000/mo exchange 220 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2008
rebounding
hundred of sl developers employing thousands of people from all over the world
sl growth increasing again
5% weekly concurrency growth
emmy-tastic
so, what’s next?
Second Life’s progression has been
community collaboration identity education entrepreneurship marketing business media
innovation
so I’d like to propose diving deeper into:
innovation behavior (with Dmitri’s help) education legal and regulatory issues the big unanswered questions
stop talking now
[email protected] http://ondrejka.net
a quick review
online versus virtual community versus world
millions of reasons
Online Game
Online Communities
Online Worlds
crapload
many
lots a few
some rules of thumb for world-wide numbers: Virtual worlds: 20 million MMOs: 50 million Social networks: 100 million (with lots of overlap)
gold in dem darn (virtual) hills
amateur versus expert
don’t make me use the baby seal slide again
(because I will)
participation Web Mainstream Media 65.00
48.75
32.50
16.25
0
Wikipedia Second Life
Sims
Open Source
any questions lurking?
it’s story time!
the second life story
good thing we’re in la
8 years so far
which isn’t that long
as mitch likes to point out
(who’s been through this)
think about the pc
think about the pc
think about the pc 1976
think about the pc 1976
think about the pc 1976
1990
15 years
so we’re only half way
(maybe 2/3)
but, like all exponentials...
but, like all exponentials...
but, like all exponentials...
vaguely interesting
but, like all exponentials... very interesting
vaguely interesting
plus, sl gives plenty of material
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2000
compression 2000
compression 2000 grid computing
compression 2000 cellular automata
grid computing
“the rig”
compression 2000 cellular automata
grid computing
“the forest”
2000 scorecard: no users no exchange 5 employees
2000 scorecard: no users no exchange 5 employees
people signed up users trading L$ and US$ Linden Lab employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2001
building 2001
building 2001 avatars
second life was about people
even the most beautiful place
was not as interesting as people
scripting, too
2001 scorecard: no users no exchange 10 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2002
2002 was a very good year
2002 was about people!
2002 was about people!
2002 was about people!
Alpha!
and people meant...
creation community collaboration
virtually no screen shots from this era
2002 scorecard: 145(!) users no exchange 20 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2003
remember 2002?
creation community collaboration
2003 had more people
creation community collaboration
however, since communities are not scale free...
creation community collaboration often drove...
cheating combat boundaries
do good fences make good neighbors?
the jessie wall
the jessie wall
the jessie wall
this story only survives because of james au
embedded in a virtual world
how to preserve the ephemeral?
Second Life launched on June 23, 2003
June 23rd is now a holiday in Second Life
Second Life launched with less than 400 users
and didn’t grow much
evolve or else
we asked for help
we asked for help
we asked for help
we asked for help
“it’s stupid to ask people to build a world and to not let them own it!”
oops
so we studied
macro economics
so we studied
macro economics
creative destruction
so we studied
macro economics
creative destruction
so we studied
“mystery of capital”
and evolved both the intellectual property approach and the business model
intellectual property
intellectual property
Yochai says “$#@%?@!!”
business model
enables two broad lines of study
ip rules in the information economy
entrepreneurship in the information economy
2003 scorecard: 2743 users no exchange 25 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2004
entrepreneurship
entrepreneurship
branding
breaking the magic circle
really breaking
2004 was about the individual using second life
2004 scorecard: 18,876 users $5,000/mo exchange 40 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2005
three things happened in 2005
Second Life became free
as in beer
educators discovered SL
in a big way
particularly via GLS and Serious Games
and sl started growing
businesses followed the people
but just a little
though virtually no real-world brands (yet)
government
and music
tringo
broadcasting identity
2005 was a year of building
2005 scorecard: 123,438 users $500,000/mo exchange 60 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2006
the knee in the curve
the year of “firsts”
auto company
hotel chain
clothing company
concert
cc concert
fashion magazines
news organization
harvard class
millionaire
where did this all come from?
despite popular perception it was NOT the Linden uber marketing machine
I wish we had that much power
distributed entrepreneurs
plus everyone else
gladwell would be proud
gartner, too
2006
2006 scorecard: 3,000,000 users $5,000,000/mo exchange 100 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
and then things got exciting
2007
freedom!
(as in speech)
second life client open sourced
big business arrived
these guys got acquired/funded
csi:ny
fortune 500 bingo
mix of training, marketing, collaboration
lots of questions: efficacy of training? impact of trust? brands and community
and how does voice mix in?
over the top
made more complicated by the rest of the world arriving
and by increasing regulatory interest
gambling adult activities banking
all of cyberlaw’s shortcomings
plus the metaphor
and lack of standards
what does user mean?
2007 scorecard: 11,000,000 users $8,000,000/mo exchange 220 employees
second life’s growth Population
Money
second life’s growth Population
Money
2008
rebounding
hundred of sl developers employing thousands of people from all over the world
sl growth increasing again
5% weekly concurrency growth
emmy-tastic
so, what’s next?
Second Life’s progression has been
community collaboration identity education entrepreneurship marketing business media
innovation
so I’d like to propose diving deeper into:
innovation behavior (with Dmitri’s help) education legal and regulatory issues the big unanswered questions
stop talking now
[email protected] http://ondrejka.net
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