Update File Final - Fellows

KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -1-

Fellows

Final Updates ***Climate***...................................................................................................................................................................................................3 Bush Push World Bank Now on Climate...........................................................................................................................................................4 World Bank Doesn’t Solve Warming.................................................................................................................................................................5 Carbon Trading Doesn’t Solve Warming...........................................................................................................................................................6 China and India Not Acting...............................................................................................................................................................................7 US Covers Up Effects of Warming....................................................................................................................................................................8 Warming = Environmental Damage..................................................................................................................................................................9 No Government Action on Climate Now........................................................................................................................................................10 US Acting Now on Climate.............................................................................................................................................................................11 Carbon Emission Reduction Cost Billions......................................................................................................................................................12 Environmental Regs Inevitable........................................................................................................................................................................13 Warming Kills Oceans/Reefs...........................................................................................................................................................................14 G8 Climate Program Fails...............................................................................................................................................................................15 Emissions Reduction Doesn’t Solve................................................................................................................................................................16 ***Doha/Bilateral Trade***............................................................................................................................................................................17 ***Coal/Natural Gas***.................................................................................................................................................................................27 Coal Rebouding/Fluctuations now..................................................................................................................................................................28 China/India Demand Shifting..........................................................................................................................................................................29 Uniqueness: Supply Crunch Now –China ......................................................................................................................................................30 China – Coal Imports High .............................................................................................................................................................................31 Prices Falling – Czech Republic......................................................................................................................................................................32 LNG Crisis Now : Iran....................................................................................................................................................................................33 LNG Crisis Now: Iran.....................................................................................................................................................................................34 US LNG Demand Increasing ..........................................................................................................................................................................35 US LNG Demand Falling................................................................................................................................................................................36 US LNG Industry Screwed Now.....................................................................................................................................................................37 US LNG Industry not screwed now ...............................................................................................................................................................38 McCain likes Clean Coal ................................................................................................................................................................................39 Coal Reserves will be deplated – 2050............................................................................................................................................................40 Clean Coal = Elections issue...........................................................................................................................................................................41 ***McCain Will Win***.................................................................................................................................................................................43 McCain Win.....................................................................................................................................................................................................44 No Uniqueness.................................................................................................................................................................................................45 A2: Voting Record Link...................................................................................................................................................................................46 McCain Alt. Energy Link................................................................................................................................................................................47 A2: Obama Strikes Iran...................................................................................................................................................................................48 ***Elections Internals***...............................................................................................................................................................................49 Turnout/excitement..........................................................................................................................................................................................50 Econ.................................................................................................................................................................................................................51 Econ.................................................................................................................................................................................................................52 Gay Issues........................................................................................................................................................................................................53 Hilary as VP ....................................................................................................................................................................................................54 Age...................................................................................................................................................................................................................55 Obama Could Lose..........................................................................................................................................................................................56 Too Early ........................................................................................................................................................................................................57 Swing Voters Not Key ....................................................................................................................................................................................58 Women’s Rights/Key.......................................................................................................................................................................................59 Judicial Nominations.......................................................................................................................................................................................60

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Obama is a 2AR ..............................................................................................................................................................................................61 ***Competitiveness/Tech***..........................................................................................................................................................................62 ***Petro Dollar/Dollar Updates***................................................................................................................................................................69 ***Saudi Arabia***........................................................................................................................................................................................80 ***Obama Will Win***..................................................................................................................................................................................88 ***Oil-Peak/Prices***....................................................................................................................................................................................95 Peak Oil...........................................................................................................................................................................................................96 Oil Prices High................................................................................................................................................................................................97 Oil Prices High................................................................................................................................................................................................98 Oil Prices High................................................................................................................................................................................................99 Oil Prices High..............................................................................................................................................................................................100 ***Readiness/Hegemony***........................................................................................................................................................................101 Dollar Decline Now.......................................................................................................................................................................................102 Weak Dollar Destroys Hegemony.................................................................................................................................................................103 Heg Bad – Dollar Key...................................................................................................................................................................................104 Other Dollar Leaders Now............................................................................................................................................................................105 Readiness Low...............................................................................................................................................................................................106 Hegemony Low.............................................................................................................................................................................................107 Hegemony Low.............................................................................................................................................................................................108 Global Warming Kills Readiness...................................................................................................................................................................109 Readiness Decline Now.................................................................................................................................................................................110 Heg Decline Inevitable..................................................................................................................................................................................111 Hege Decline Inevitable.................................................................................................................................................................................113 Hege Decline Inevitable.................................................................................................................................................................................114 Military Power Sustainable, Economic Power Not.......................................................................................................................................115 Economic Hegemony Declining....................................................................................................................................................................116 Economic Hegemony Declining....................................................................................................................................................................117 Dollar Stable, but Could Collapse (Uniqueness and Impact)........................................................................................................................118 ***Brazil/Venezuela***................................................................................................................................................................................119 Brazil Relations Low.....................................................................................................................................................................................120 Brazil Relations High....................................................................................................................................................................................121 Brazil Countering Venezuela Now................................................................................................................................................................122 Venezuela Relations Low..............................................................................................................................................................................123 Venezuela Relations High..............................................................................................................................................................................125 ***Russia***.................................................................................................................................................................................................126 Shim Thought 3 Cards = 15...........................................................................................................................................................................127

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -3-

Fellows

***Climate* **

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -4-

Fellows

Bush Push World Bank Now on Climate Bush is pushing for the World Bank to have an expanded role in climate - China and India oppose Redman, 7/11/2008 (Janet Redman is a researcher for the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., where she provides analysis of the international financial institutions' energy investment and carbon finance activities; Brilliant Plans to Destroy the Planet: The World Bank Tackles Climate Change, http://www.alternet.org/workplace/90932/?ses=f988a6c3ee14dd5bc68f73eeb2caf5ba) President Bush and other leaders of the industrialized world managed to produce a masterfully vague, loophole-ridden statement on climate change at a Group of 8 summit held at a secluded resort on the banks of Lake Toyako in Japan this week. Meanwhile, thousands of delegates from grassroots movements transformed tranquil Odori Park in downtown Sapporo into the central nervous system of a bottom-up response to ecologically destructive development policies. On the opening day of the G8 summit, activists from every continent joined Japanese environmental and global justice groups in the streets brandishing banners, flags and megaphones. Their message was unambiguous: "Climate Justice, Yes! World Bank, No!" Their boiled-down slogans were in response to a communiqué released on the second day of the official summit that endorsed the World Bank's newly created Climate Investment Funds. The $6 billion pledged by the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan to these funds will do nothing to help the climate. Instead, they will give the World Bank an even larger -- and completely inappropriate -- leadership role on climate change. Large developing countries, such as China and India, have clearly stated their opposition to climate funds being channeled through the World Bank. More than 130 developing nations issued a statement at climate talks in Germany in June that the United Nations, not the World Bank, should have control of any funds contributed for weathering climate change. If given to the World Bank, they argued, these funds should not count toward countries' obligations under the international climate change convention. By ignoring their unified position, the G8 support for this expanded World Bank role in climate funding jeopardizes efforts to bring developing countries to the table for a global climate deal.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

World Bank Doesn’t Solve Warming The World Bank fails at solving warming Redman, 7/11/2008 (Janet Redman is a researcher for the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., where she provides analysis of the international financial institutions' energy investment and carbon finance activities; Brilliant Plans to Destroy the Planet: The World Bank Tackles Climate Change, http://www.alternet.org/workplace/90932/?ses=f988a6c3ee14dd5bc68f73eeb2caf5ba) The World Bank's effort to reinvent itself as the global climate crusader is a dangerous charade. With $2 billion already spent on coal, oil and gas projects this year, the World Bank continues to be among the world's largest multilateral financiers of greenhouse-gas-emitting projects in the developing world. The new Climate Investment Funds proposed by the United States and others will house the Clean Technology Fund. Donations from rich countries will ostensibly be used to bring low-carbon technologies to developing countries, and clean energy access to their poorest citizens. But environmental groups have taken to calling the Clean Technology Fund the Slightly Less Dirty Technology Fund because of the bank's outright support for slightly more efficient coal power.

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -6-

Fellows

Carbon Trading Doesn’t Solve Warming Carbon Trading fails - exporting emissions Redman, 7/11/2008 (Janet Redman is a researcher for the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., where she provides analysis of the international financial institutions' energy investment and carbon finance activities; Brilliant Plans to Destroy the Planet: The World Bank Tackles Climate Change, http://www.alternet.org/workplace/90932/?ses=f988a6c3ee14dd5bc68f73eeb2caf5ba) Predictably, the G8 highlighted its support for market mechanisms, such as carbon trading, as key instruments in fighting climate change. The World Bank has long favored carbon trading. The institution's zeal for this approach is not surprising: A recent report by the Institute for Policy Studies found that on average, the bank rakes in a 13 percent overhead on the emissions deals it brokers. The inconvenient truth behind carbon trading is that while companies in industrialized countries continue to pollute at home, they "outsource" their emissions cuts to countries with no caps. In other words, for every incrementally less-polluting coal plant generating carbon credits in a developing country, a dirty coal plant can be built next door. This accounting system may be profitable for carbon brokers like the World Bank, and less costly for Northern polluters, but it does nothing to avert climate disaster.

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -7-

Fellows

China and India Not Acting China and India won't initiate climate change without economic protection The Globe and Mail, 7/11/2008 (India, China concerned about climate, Harper says, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080711.G811/TPStory/National)

TOKYO -- Big developing countries such as China and India appreciate the need to deal with climate change but want to protect their rapid economic growth, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said yesterday after an international summit dominated by the topic. However, they must understand that wealthy countries such as Canada cannot allow their economies to suffer, either, by shouldering too much of the burden to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, he said. "I don't think this is a hopeless discussion we're having with the emerging world on climate change, but for them, it's a question that they will not separate from the economy," Mr. Harper told reporters in Tokyo. "And as you know, as the leader of our country, I've been very clear that I will not separate it from a discussion about our economic prospects."

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -8-

Fellows

US Covers Up Effects of Warming Washington covered reports on the dangers of climate The Guardian, 7/10/2008 (Blowing the whistle on climate change, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/10/climatechange.dickcheney) But Burnett spilled about more than just this recent scuffle. He also noted that in the fall of 2007, the Council on Environmental Quality and the Cheney's office asked him to work with the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to remove portions of a report detailing the threats that climate change poses to human health. The document in question was the testimony that Julie Gerberding, director of the CDC, had prepared to give before the Senate environment and public works committee about the human impacts of global warming. After her testimony in October 2007, it came to light that the White House had edited it down from 14 pages to a mere four, cutting the six pages detailing the diseases and other health problems that would be exacerbated by a warming planet. Burnett's letter this week was the first evidence, however, that the call for edits came directly from Cheney's office, which he says asked him to "remove from the testimony any discussion of the human health consequences of climate change".

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KNDI 2k8

Final Updates -9-

Fellows

Warming = Environmental Damage Global warming catalyzes the effect of smog - pollution and environmental damage ensue Associated Press, 7/10/2008 (EPA: Smog could get worse with global warming, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hGnpiLDanDQi0dMmqzHTkGIjx5MAD91RAK58A) WASHINGTON (AP) — Global warming could worsen smog and stretch what typically is a summer pollution problem into the spring and fall, government scientists predicted Thursday. Smog is most likely to get worse in the Northeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic regions of the country, where numerous counties and cities are already struggling to clean up the air, according to a draft analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency. But in Texas and Southern California, already among the smoggiest areas in the country, the science is unclear, even conflicting. Smog there could get slightly better or become more severe, the analysis said. Nonetheless, researchers said state officials should be factoring in the impact of global warming as they make plans to try to reduce smog, calling it a "climate penalty." "These findings also indicate, that, where climate-change-induced increases in (smog) do occur, damaging effects on ecosystems, agriculture, and health will be especially pronounced, due to increases in the frequency of extreme pollution events," the analysis concluded. However, the prediction came with a caveat: the researchers did not take into account efforts to reduce smog that are already under way because of stricter environmental regulations. EPA stressed that the document did not represent the agency's policies or position on global warming. On Friday, the agency is scheduled to officially respond to a Supreme Court ruling that said greenhouse gases could be regulated under the Clean Air Act if they pose a risk to human health or welfare. The Bush administration has resisted linking global warming to public health problems. The ill-effects of smog, however, have been long been recognized. Smog is formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds released from cars, industry and plants mix in sunlight. It can irritate the respiratory system, reduce lung capacity and aggravate asthma. Global warming would make smog worse because it would cause plants to release more smog-forming organic compounds and spark more lightning storms, which create nitrogen oxides naturally.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

No Government Action on Climate Now Government won't do anything to effect climate now Washington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=) The Bush administration has decided not to take any new steps to regulate greenhouse gas emissions before the president leaves office, despite pressure from the Supreme Court and broad accord among senior federal officials that new regulation is appropriate now. The Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce today that it will seek months of further public comment on the threat posed by global warming to human health and welfare -- a matter that federal climate experts and international scientists have repeatedly said should be urgently addressed.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

US Acting Now on Climate USFG is doing all it can to stop climate policy now Washington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=) To defer compliance with the Supreme Court's demand, the White House has walked a tortured policy path, editing its officials' congressional testimony, refusing to read documents prepared by career employees and approved by top appointees, requesting changes in computer models to lower estimates of the benefits of curbing carbon dioxide, and pushing narrowly drafted legislation on fuel-economy standards that officials said was meant to sap public interest in wider regulatory action. The decision to solicit further comment overrides the EPA's written recommendation from December. Officials said a few senior White House officials were unwilling to allow the EPA to state officially that global warming harms human welfare. Doing so would legally trigger sweeping regulatory requirements under the 45-year-old Clean Air Act, one of the pillars of U.S. environmental protection, and would cost utilities, automakers and others billions of dollars while also bringing economic benefits, EPA's analyses found.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

Carbon Emission Reduction Cost Billions Carbon reduction costs billions Washington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=) Career EPA officials argued that the global benefits of reducing carbon are worth at least $40 per ton, but Bush appointees changed the final document to say the figure is just an example, not an official estimate. They prohibited the agency from submitting a 21-page document titled "Technical Support Document on Benefits of Reducing GHG Emissions" as part of today's announcement. "The administration didn't want to show a high-dollar value for reducing carbon," said one EPA official, adding that the administration cut dozens of pages from a draft that outlined cost-effective ways to reduce greenhouse gases.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

Environmental Regs Inevitable Regulations are inevitable - perception DAs should have been triggered Washington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=) The proposal that the EPA will unveil today, known as an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, stands in stark contrast to the agency's original Dec. 5 finding -- backed up by a lengthy scientific analysis -- that global warming is unequivocal, that there is "compelling and robust" evidence that the emissions endanger public welfare and that the EPA administrator is "required by law" to act to protect Americans from future harm. That finding appeared in a 37-page document prepared by an EPA task force of 60 to 70 people that was discussed at dozens of interagency meetings led by Susan Dudley, the head of the OMB's regulatory review office. She "understood that some regulation was inevitable," a participant in these meetings said, particularly since Bush promised, a month after the April 2007 Supreme Court ruling, to "take the first steps toward regulations" to curb emissions by the end of last year.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

Warming Kills Oceans/Reefs Warming leads to reef coral extinction, damaging the global economy and threatening the lives of millions Bloomberg, 7/10/2008 (Reef Corals Face Extinction Due to Global Warming, Over-Fishing, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2UEl1WOcKnM&refer=australia) ``When we began this process, we didn't think it would be anywhere near as high as that,'' Livingstone, also a marine species assessor for the International Union for Conservation of Nature, said yesterday in a

Climate change is the overarching threat which comes in on a much larger, global scale,''

telephone interview. `` adding to localized disturbances, she said.

The fate of corals is crucial to the livelihoods of millions of coastal dwellers around the world. Reefs are worth about $30 billion a year to the global economy, through tourism, fisheries and coastal protection, according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a United-Nations supervised study published in 2005.

The corals have a symbiotic relationship with zooxanthellae, single-celled algae that shelter in their tissues and provide the reef-building organisms with nutrition and energy, enabling faster growth. Corals build reefs by secreting exoskeletons of calcium carbonate that accumulate over hundreds of years.

`Irreversible Declines'

Warmer temperatures, disease and pollution cause corals to expel the zooxanthellae. Because the algae are the source of the corals' bright colors, when they are rejected, it is known as bleaching, and it makes corals more likely to die. ``If bleaching events become very frequent, many species may be unable to re-establish breeding populations before subsequent bleaching causes potentially irreversible declines,'' the scientists wrote. ``If corals cannot adapt, the cascading effects of the functional loss of reef ecosystems will threaten the geologic structure of reefs and their coastal protection function, and have huge economic effects on food security for hundreds of millions of people dependent on reef fish.'' The Caribbean and western Pacific were identified by the researchers as the areas where most corals are threatened. Corals are undermined by the buildup of silt, and run-off of nutrients from fertilizers into the sea, which creates surface algal blooms. Both processes block light from reaching the zooxanthellae. Over-fishing can change the balance of the food chain by removing large herbivores, and some reefs are destroyed to make way for coastal development.

Stresses

the best way to help preserve corals is to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for rising temperatures, tackling local threats by tightening regulations on fishing, coastal building and marine protection will reduce stress to corals, Livingstone said. While

``One of the big problems is these localized disturbances from human activities in conjunction with climate change,'' Livingstone said. ``They are much more resistant and able to adapt if there are no other stresses acting on them.''

Warming threatens oceanic collapse The Times of India, 7/11/2008 (Warming spells trouble for fish, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Earth/Warming_trouble_for_fish/articleshow/3223175.cms)

climate change on oceans throughout the world will have serious consequences for hundreds of millions of people who depend on fishing for their livelihoods, the United Nations said on Friday. NEW YORK: The effect of

Changes in sea temperatures brought in as a result of warming also alters the body temperatures of aquatic species thereby affecting their metabolism, growth rate, reproduction and susceptibility to diseases and toxins, the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) said. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as the El Nino phenomenon in the South Pacific, the warming of oceans and movement of warmer-water species towards the North and South Poles are some of the visible effects of climate change, the FAO said, expressing concern for the fishery industry during a seminar on climate change and marine fisheries in Rome. There has also been an increase in salinity in near-surface waters in warmer regions, while increased precipitation and melting of ice in cooler areas facilitate the opposite. In addition, the oceans are becoming more acidic with probable negative consequences for coral reef and other calcium-bearing organisms, FAO said. Fishing communities in higher altitudes, as well as those relying on coral reef systems, will be most exposed to the impact of climate change, the UN food agency said, adding that fisheries in deltas and ice-dominated coasts will be more vulnerable to flooding and erosion due to rise in sea level.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

G8 Climate Program Fails G8 warming program fails - vague and no plan of inaction The New York Times, 7/10/2008 (Global Warming Talks Leave Few Concrete Goals, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/science/earth/10assess.html?hp) President Bush, who had insisted that any commitment to combat global warming must involve growing economies as well as the rich nations, recruited China and India to the table and received rare accolades from some environmentalists for doing so. The developing countries received a promise that the rich countries would take the lead in curbing emissions. And environmentalists said the agreements renewed chances of reviving two ailing climate pacts, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. But behind the congratulatory speeches on Wednesday, some experts said, was a more sobering reality. The documents issued by the participating countries had very few of the concrete goals needed to keep greenhouse gases from growing at their torrid pace, they said. The statement issued by the industrialized Group of 8 pledged to “move toward a carbon-free society” by seeking to cut worldwide emissions of heat-trapping gases in half by 2050. But the statement did not say whether that baseline would be emissions at 1990 levels, or the less ambitious baseline of current levels, already 25 percent higher.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

Emissions Reduction Doesn’t Solve Emissions reduction alone doesn't solve - lasting effects The New York Times, 7/10/2008 (Global Warming Talks Leave Few Concrete Goals, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/science/earth/10assess.html?hp) Cutting emissions in half is just the first step in curtailing warming, climate experts have long said, because the main greenhouse gas generated by human activities, carbon dioxide, can persist for a century or more in the atmosphere, once it is released. That means that later in the century, emissions must drop nearly to zero, or large-scale techniques must be developed to pull carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

***Doha/Bilateral Trade***

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Now is key for DOHA, the U.S.'s willingness to grant trade concessions, especially on Brazil is key to their effectiveness. [Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round, http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html] "These revised texts set the stage for a decisive moment in the Doha round," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said. "A deal to open trade in agriculture and goods means more growth, better prospects for development and a more stable and predictable trading system. We must not let this opportunity slip through our fingers," he said in a statement. Lamy, a former European Union trade chief, called the make-or-break meeting, which is the last opportunity to reach a deal before change in the U.S. administration in January 2009 that could see the talks put on ice for years. In Brussels, the European Commission said on Thursday it welcomed positive steps made in the new negotiating texts but said that "important gaps" still needed to be bridged. "We are committed to this negotiation, but we need serious efforts from our negotiating partners to reach a balanced agreement," a spokesman for European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said in a statement. In Washington, US trade representative spokeswoman Gretchen Hamel said that the Bush administration would be reviewing the texts in coming days. But the United States said it was time leading developing countries made market-opening offers "commensurate with their increasing participation and role in the world economy." Both mediators, New Zealand's WTO ambassador Crawford Falconer for agriculture, and Canadian ambassador Don Stephenson for industry, told reporters they hoped to narrow the gaps further next week before ministers arrive. Falconer said he was confident agreement could be reached reconciling the interests of tropical product exporters in Latin America with less developed growers in African, Caribbean and Pacific countries seeking to maintain their preferential access to the European Union. Brazil, one of the world's leading agricultural producers and a major player in the trade talks, voiced misgivings about the new texts. "The WTO papers will only produce a deal if the rich countries improve their offer, showing leadership and reducing trade barriers," said Roberto Azevedo, Brazil's chief trade negotiator.

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Now is key a deal must be made to retard protectionist measures, if the U.S. Removes protections on its farmers the deal will go through and acess to markets will increase. [Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round, http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html] Trade experts say a deal is needed to counter rising protectionist pressures that threaten prosperity, and would be a shot in the arm for the ailing world economy. The aim is to rewrite the rules of world trade, last codified in 1994, for the 21st century and remove distortions that developing countries say put them at a disadvantage. Agreement on agriculture and industrial goods -- the most sensitive chapters -- could open the way for deals in other areas such as services like banking and telecoms as well as trade rules on subsidies and unfairly priced imports. A deal would see rich countries like the United States, Japan and the EU's members open up their food markets by reducing protection for their farmers. In return they will get greater access to developing country markets for industrial goods and services, especially in emerging nations like India, Brazil, China and South Africa.

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Agricultural tariff's key to Doha. [Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round, http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html] The texts issued by mediators on Thursday made no changes to current proposed ranges for tariff and subsidy cuts for both agriculture and industrial goods -- a political decision that only ministers can take. The new farm text set a tariff cap of 100 percent for developed countries -- a key demand of poor countries -- as part of complex technical arrangements, still under negotiation, of how countries shield sensitive farm products from tariff cuts.

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Multilateralism is bad, discriminates against smaller countries, and leads to large blocs of developped countries controlling all global trade. [Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism at the Crossroads, May 25, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.do] Mr. Chairman, the challenge that I will be addressing today focuses on the issue of Multilateralism. I am referring to a multilateralism that is so often tainted as the growth of mega-trading blocs dominated by large developed countries. It inevitably serves to discriminate against those countries that are not in a position to negotiate the type of preferential access that they need to survive and which inevitably become marginalized in a world where power overrides rules and fair play. For many developing countries therefore, multilateralism equals discrimination which in turn equals marginalization. It is perhaps the most serious challenge facing us all today in our collective quest for ordered global development. The WTO is in the throes of this debate with some of our members becoming fatalistic and subscribing to the view that there is little the WTO can do to circumscribe the growth of the power of the rich particularly when this is being accumulated at the expense of the less powerful and the less developed. These are the “so called realists” who see the underlying matrix of world power as heavily skewed and cast against genuine multilateralism.

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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What is needed now is a new form of multilateralism, the plan is such an example, that attempts to incorporate the interests of developing countries into the global multilateral regime. [Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism at the Crossroads, May 25-27, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.doc] I believe it can. I do not interpret the failures in Seattle or the setbacks in Cancun as a reflection of lost hope in multilateralism. On the contrary, I believe that we are witnessing the emergence of a new multilateralism albeit with birth pangs, and it is in this sense I speak of a multilateralism at crossroads today. The challenge of successfully integrating the developing countries into the multilateral system is without doubt very demanding and fraught with risks. Controlling unfettered unilateralism, and in so doing promoting new multilateral rules is at the heart of this challenge. The “multilateralism” of the past, with only one package or set of economic policy prescriptions for the global trading system consistent with the Washington Consensus, has not managed for the most part to lift most developing countries’ economic status. What such “multilateralism” has done has been to widen the wealth gap between developed and most developing countries, and contributed to a continuing decline in the long-term development prospects of the latter.

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KNDI 2k8 Fellows

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Brazil-U.S. Relations are key to solving multilateralism, their coopeation becomes the basis for the new multilateralism. [Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism at the Crossroads, May 25-27, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.doc] Mr. Chairman, leadership with a vision of a fair, balanced and equitable order is indeed a critical factor in this endeavour. It is emerging slowly as the new geopolitical and economic realties force us all to see the common interests in harnessing the benefits of globalization. Today, effective multilateralism depends on the beneficial interaction of key developed and developing countries. They alone can provide the constructive leadership in a new and pragmatic ‘coalition of the willing'. This is the imperative that came out of Cancun that really responds to the new dynamic. It will bridge the current North-South divide and unleash forces with stronger interests in multilateralism. It is not wishful thinking to view these possibilities. Events in the wider world, such as the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and generally the problems of managing the global commons, all seem to point to the advantages of multilateralism over unilateralism.

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Cooperation with developing countries such as Brazil is necessary to prevent the protectionist regimes associated with trade blocks. [Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism at the Crossroads, May 25-27, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.doc] The scenario that is generally offered is a world dominated by three large blocks. An East Asian trade block revolving around China will most likely emerge more rapidly, taking its place alongside US-led and EU-led blocks. These three mega-blocks will all be interlinked by a plethora of cross-regional, bilateral and plurilateral FTAs. One can just imagine the discriminating and protectionist tendencies that such a world would secrete. I dread therefore, to contemplate the implications of a WTO-failure for the world. As a region comprising largely small economies heavily dependent on trade and investment from the rest of the world, the Caribbean has a longterm stake in a WTO that delivers stability and predictability to freer trade. Free trade agreements (FTA) are simply not enough. Small economies including many small island developing countries (SIDS) would have difficulty surviving in a world of bilateralism. Like many LDCs, they also cannot meet the full obligations being demanded of them in this current round. The Doha Development Agenda is crucial for bolstering international economic growth, and assisting developing countries to integrate into the global economy. So it is important that we succeed, and this is why all countries have worked hard for a substantive resumption of WTO talks and are pushing hard for progress on the outstanding issues. The WTO, Mr. Chairman cannot continue to have residual importance, for its days as a vehicle for trade liberalization will be surely numbered. Regional and bilateral trade policy agendas must therefore be placed under a well-functioning multilateral rules-based trading system.

Silva slams U.S. tariff on Brazil ethanol ahead of Bush visit

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Salvaging WTO talks is based around agricultural subsides like the plan overturns [AP, 2007, Silva slams U.S. tariff on Brazil ethanol ahead of Bush visit, March 5, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/LA-FIN-Brazil-US-Ethanol.php] Silva said he will also talk with Bush about efforts to salvage the WTO talks that collapsed in discord last summer over farm subsidies and reluctance by developing nations to open their markets to rich countries. He made the comments as negotiators from the United States, the European Union, Brazil and India were holding bilateral meetings in Geneva in an attempt to get the so-called Doha round of trade talks back on track. "I think we're close to a deal in the Doha round," Silva said, adding that he thinks an accord will most benefit nations like Brazil that have complained about difficulties shipping agricultural products to American and European markets. The Renewable Fuels Association, the ethanol industry's trade association, said Monday that production of ethanol in the U.S. rose to an all-time record of 4.9 billion gallons (18.6 billion liters) last year, up more than 24 percent from 2005 levels. Matt Hartwig, a spokesman for the association said tariffs on Brazilian ethanol should be maintained because it offsets a 51 cent-per-gallon tax credit that companies — including Brazilian ethanol sellers — receive in the U.S. for blending ethanol into gasoline. "We don't believe the American taxpayer should be asked to subsidize Brazilian ethanol production," Hartwig said.

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Tariff Negotiations are key to U.S.-Brazil cooperation on Chavez. As long as the tariff exists no progress can be made on Chavez. [AP, 2007, Silva slams U.S. tariff on Brazil ethanol ahead of Bush visit, March 5, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/LA-FIN-Brazil-US-Ethanol.php] SAO PAULO, Brazil: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday that a U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol does not make sense and that he will complain about it to U.S. President George W. Bush when the American leader visits Brazil later this week. Silva also said he does not think it is appropriate for him to talk with Bush about the socialist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, even though Bush's trip to Latin America is widely viewed by analysts and Brazil's media as an attempt to neutralize Chavez' influence in the region. "I don't believe there's room for us to discuss problems of other countries," he said. Bush and Silva on Friday are expected to forge an "ethanol alliance" aimed at creating quality standards for the alternative fuel, while joining forces to promote production of ethanol in nations lying between Brazil and the United States. But the United States' US$0.54 (€.41) per gallon tariff on Brazilian ethanol makes the sugarcane-based fuel more expensive in America, and means that American corn that could be used for animal feed is being diverted to produce ethanol, Silva said. The United States and Brazil are the planet's biggest ethanol producers, and Brazil is the largest exporter.

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KNDI 2k8

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Fellows

***Coal/Natural Gas***

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Fellows

Coal Rebouding/Fluctuations now Coal prices are fluctuating and are rebounding from the drop Forbes.comThomson Financial News. 07.11.08, http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/10/afx5204001.html

losses in coal miners following a drop in coal prices holding back the market from rebounding from recent slumps. JAKARTA (Thomson Financial) - Indonesian shares were little changed in early trade on Friday, with

Broader market sentiment was also undermined by the overnight rebound in oil prices. crude for August delivery soared $5.60 to $141.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. It was crude's largest daily leap since June 6, when the July contract jumped by Light, sweet

$10.75 a barrel.

'The market moved very little in early trade as players were cautious after the oil price bounced back yesterday,' Reliance Securities analyst Jasa Adhi Mulya said. Selling pressure hit oil and coal miners' shares, trimming the index's overall gains contributed by other minor sectors and banking stocks. At 10:13 a.m. (0313 GMT), the composite index was up 2.36 points or 0.1 percent at 2,278.59.

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Fellows

China/India Demand Shifting China/India are shifting to cheaper quality coal

Rueters. Jul 11, 2008. China chases ultra low quality, cheap coal. http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINL1035414620080711 end-users in China and India have given up waiting for standard quality prices to fall -- instead seeking extremely low quality coal which matches their target prices, traders and producers said. LONDON/SHANGHAI, July 11 (Reuters) - Coal

Chinese demand for spot Indonesian coal has risen during the past two weeks because large and small utilities are building stocks ahead of the August Olympic Games in Beijing, they said. small Chinese coal mines have been shut down recently as part of a government drive to improve safety in the coal industry. In 2007 3,786 people died in coal mining accidents. Many

Mine closures and strong domestic demand have exacerbated coal shortages at power plants in China. In a bid to minimise power cuts during the Olympics, more imported coal is being sought, traders said.

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Fellows

Uniqueness: Supply Crunch Now – China China’s facing a supply crunch now. Wan Zhihong (China Daily) 2008-07-09. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/09/content_6830332.htm. Supply crunch hits coal cradle

Shanxi province, which produces one-fourth of China's coal, has witnessed approximately 5,000 mW of power shortages, the highest level recorded in recent years. The province is currently facing a power shortage, which has reached as high as 4,600 mW. The power shortage has adversely affected the economy, said the provincial electricity regulator. The province has an installed power capacity of 34,340 mW. However, power genertors with capacity of 3,500 mW halted production because of coal shortage, accounting for 15.2 percent, said the

The tense situation caused by the coal supply and the rise in coal price has had a big impact on the province's power companies," said Li Fulong, director of the provincial price bureau. According to Shanxi Province Electric Power Association (SEPA), regulator. "

this year coal production in the province will reach 680 million tons, up 9 percent compared with a year earlier. However, it still cannot catch up with the development of downstream business, such as power generation.

Coal companies in Shanxi have all increased their product prices this year. In the first quarter, the average coal price for the province's five leading companies stood at 377 yuan ($54.94) per ton, an increase of 13 percent compared with a year earlier, according to local statistics.

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Fellows

China – Coal Imports High China Daily, China. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/11/content_6837620.htm. 2008-07-11

Coal exports soared 83.5 percent year-on-year in June to 6.99 million tonnes, the highest monthly total since March 2005, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday. said the surge likely reflected a widening gap between higher world prices and domestic prices, which are capped by the government. The gap was about $54.70 per tonne in the week ended on July 4, the China Business News reported on Thursday. Analysts

Rising exports would exacerbate shortages at coal-fired power plants, which were striving to ensure electricity for the Olympics and reconstruction from the May 12 quake, analysts said. To protect power plants' profits, the government has imposed temporary controls on the factory prices of thermal coal, capping them at the price that prevailed on June 19, which is effective through the end of the year. Coal exports totaled 25.49 million tonnes in the first half of 2008, up 10.2 percent year-on-year, according to the administration.

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Fellows

Prices Falling – Czech Republic Finance.Cz 08July2008 - NWR continues retreat on lower coal prices. http://www.finance.cz/zpravy/finance/177955-stocks-news-emerging-europe-nwr-drops-on-lower-coal-price/

Czech coal miner New World Resources (NWR) falls more than 4 percent in early trade, nearing levels last seen following its May public a drop in commodity prices. The stock underperforms a rising Prague market but gains back some early losses to trade 1.8 percent lower at 450 crowns, while the main PX index rises 1.69 percent. offering after

NWR shares closely track coal prices, and now trade close to their closing level of 445 crowns on May 6, when the miner first listed in London and Prague. The stock had traded as much as 40 percent above its May 6 close in mid-June.

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Fellows

LNG Crisis Now : Iran Demand for LNG will increase and Iran will not fill in

Redorbit.com Thursday, 10 July 2008, Iranian Impasse Indicative of LNG Exposure to Rising Political Riskhttp://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/

Sonatrach has claimed that the global market for LNG will double by 2016. While this has a sharp resonance with previous predictions by the IEA, the meteoric rise of LNG is fast becoming weighed down by the same forces afflicting conventional hydrocarbon production; namely heightened levels of political risk and spiraling costs in upstream development as the latest developments in Tehran attest. lthough media coverage has foreseen a major rise in LNG as the Atlantic and Pacific Basins race to build regasification capacity, it has repeatedly overlooked potential supply-side risks. In the past two-and-a-half years, a measly 19 million tonnes of LNG capacity has been sanctioned, with only three new projects approved in 2007. A

The key stumbling block is that final investment decisions are becoming increasingly difficult to conclude, not least because LNG suppliers are keen to extract optimal contractual positions from foreign companies. Iran will find it difficult to develop LNG from the South Pars field in light of external sanctions on the one hand and internal wrangling over contractual terms with Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol on the other. The fact that Total has now pulled back from developing Phase 11 of the South Pars field following missile tests by Tehran, underlines the pronounced role political risk can play in deterring LNG investments in the bluntest sense

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Fellows

LNG Crisis Now: Iran There’s a huge energy crisis coming now – supply side risks

Redorbit.com Thursday, 10 July 2008, Iranian Impasse Indicative of LNG Exposure to Rising Political Riskhttp://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/

In sub-Saharan Africa, LNG progress has been made in Angola, while in West Africa, Nigerian President Yar'Adua has been busy courting investment in the Nigerian gas sector. However, much of the proposed increase in output has already been earmarked for domestic supply by Lagos, making it a less attractive proposition for oil and gas companies willing to navigate the considerable country risk involved. Qatar, currently the world's largest LNG exporter with 17% of the world market, is having to divert more of its gas to feed the domestic and Middle Eastern markets, and has placed a moratorium on new gas export projects after 2010. Similar difficulties are appearing in Egypt, which recorded a 4.6% drop in LNG exports in 2007 compared to 2006 levels, amid Even

contractual disputes with foreign companies on commercial terms and growing pressures to meet domestic demand. Although Yemen is well placed to get LNG onto the market, its

reserves are fast depleting, making it a short-term player rather than a long-term heavy weight compared to the likes of Saudi Arabia and Iraq over the next 20 years in LNG markets. With very few suppliers gearing up to fill potential LNG gaps, the outlook is not particularly encouraging in the medium term. LNG will certainly continue to gather pace over the next decade, but whether it can double output by 2016 will critically depend on getting the politics right. A 'supply crunch' might not be as far fetched as once thought, particularly as the politics of LNG are starting to mirror the fundamental political misalignment in the oil markets, drawing supply-demand fundamentals ever closer. No doubt regasification terminals will continue to be built apace, but whether ships will always come in looks increasingly doubtful.

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US LNG Demand Increasing US LNG demand will increase

Bloomberg News. July 8, 2008, 4:32PM. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5877203.html. Energy Dept. says U.S. LNG imports falling U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas may fall 38 percent this year as demand remains strong in Asia and Europe and projects are delayed, the Energy Department said today. S. LNG imports this year may total about 480 billion cubic feet, down from 770 billion cubic feet in 2007, the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook said. The department last month estimated 2008 LNG imports would total about 530 billion U.

cubic feet, a decline of 31 percent.

The volume may climb to 790 billion cubic feet in 2009 as new supply enters the global market, the department said. This is down from June estimates of 850 billion cubic feet. Imports in the first half of 2008 were 60 percent below those of a year earlier. The flow of LNG into the U.S. is averaging about 1.1 billion cubic feet a day so far this month, down from 3.1 billion cubic feet a day a year ago, Stacy Nieuwoudt, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. in Houston, said in a note today.

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Fellows

US LNG Demand Falling US LNG demand is falling

Gray

Tony Lloyd's List, UK two-years/20017550872.htm

Jul 9, 2008 US lowers forecasted LNG imports for next two years. http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/us-lowers-forecasted-lng-imports-for-next-

THEUS Energy Information Administration has again lowered its forecast for the nation’s liquefied natural gas imports in the current year as cargoes continue to flow to higher priced markets. And the EIA has also reduced its estimate of imports in 2009.

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US LNG Industry Screwed Now US LNG industry is weak now and will fail due to federal inefficiency Ken

Silverstein, EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief Energy Central, CO - Jul 8, 2008. http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=526

Energy prices may be going through the roof. But some plans to add capacity by building liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities are being driven under. Will those efforts thwart America's attempt to expand its energy arsenal? Global markets for LNG are escalating, necessitating more investment in production, transportation and re-gasification. The industry is attracting billions from top tier players that weigh their investment decisions. Risks abound. But the overwhelming demand for new natural gas supplies appears to trump other considerations.

"We have increasing tensions in this area. I see these things as getting more and more heightened. To work out these issues, it "On the siting side, the NIMBY issues are so difficult," says Catherine Little, partner in the international law firm of Hunton & Williams in Atlanta. will have to be done out on a site-by-site basis."

import facilities exist in the United States and one in Puerto Rico. Roughly 40 new regasification plants have been approved by U.S. regulators, although no more than a dozen will be constructed. Most of those will get built At present, five LNG

in the south. Moreover, the additional plants planned for the region would be strategically placed near the Gulf of Mexico as well as key pipelines. Sempra LNG, for instance, embarked on its first LNG endeavor in late 2000 in Baja California, Mexico. Sempra LNG's West Coast project, Energia Costa Azul was completed in the first quarter of 2008, while Cameron LNG construction is slated for completion in Louisiana in late 2008. Sempra LNG's Texas project, Port Arthur LNG, is permitted but no construction start date has been set.

But winning the necessary permits is no easy task. To do so requires more than 40 approvals from both state and federal agencies. At the federal level, U.S. lawmakers have determined that more LNG projects are a must and as such, have directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to streamline siting protocol. Delays may be in the offing. But FERC says that any interruptions are not because of it. In the end, developers must work with all stakeholders and show that the projects are financially viable.

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Fellows

US LNG Industry not screwed now Environmental and political concerns hurt the LNG industry, however it will succeed in being awesome Ken

Silverstein, EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief Energy Central, CO - Jul 8, 2008. http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=526

Those tensions are now being felt in Baltimore. Federal regulators had previously given an LNG project proposed by AES Corp. tentative approval -- a deal which also won the backing of the region's labor movement that would be the beneficiary of 375 new jobs. At a recent hearing there before FERC, however, local officials and community organizers said that the facility would be unsafe and environmentally unsound. Meanwhile, a ConocoPhillips subsidiary has withdrawn its requests to build an LNG plan at the Port of Long Beach in California. Sound Energy Solutions said that its $750 million investment would have provided southern residents with a rich vein by which to receive its natural gas. Similarly, consumer organizations have stopped a division of Shell and TransCanada from constructing an LNG facility in Long Island Sound. Broadwater Energy, the unit in question, vows to fight on. "Truly, if there is credit for this victory, it belongs to you," says Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, at a press event sponsored by a group that wants to preserve Long Island Sound. The attorney general says that he expects the fight to continue but cautioned citizens of New York and Connecticut to keep their guards up and not to let win "two big companies who sought to profit at your expense." While those consumer groups raise valid issues, the underlying market fundamentals have not changed. That is, the United States expects the demand for energy to keep rising and current natural gas supply levels are inadequate to meet that challenge. Precisely, the nation produces 83 percent of its own natural gas and it imports roughly 14 percent from Canada. Not only is demand increasing but Canadian supplies are dipping. Therefore, unconventional natural gas fuel such as LNG or shale sources are paramount.

Ultimately, more projects will get built not just here but around the globe. It's the free market at work: Scottish Consultancy Wood Mackenzie says that worldwide LNG demand will triple by 2020. It is predicting consumption will blossom from 7 trillion cubic feet a year now to 25 trillion cubic feet a year in that time frame. By extension, the United States is preparing for that growth. Toward that end, Northwest Natural Gas in Portland, Ore. has long advocated using LNG as a way to supplement the gas resources it now gets from Canada and the Rocky Mountains. The company has formed a joint venture with TransCanada to build a 211-mile pipeline to serve a proposed LNG terminal in the state. The LNG debate "may not be the best for our reputation in the short term," says Gregg Kantor, head of Northwest Natural Gas. "But we have an obligation to tell the story as we see it."

e nation then walks the dual course of trying to keep environmental sanity while at the same time meeting the future demand for energy. While the concerns raised must be addressed, the bias is toward using more LNG Many regulators are persuaded. But community activists are a tough sell. Th

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Fellows

McCain likes Clean Coal McCain likes clean coal and lower taxes! Walt

Williams.July 9 . http://wowktv.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=41016

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Fellows

Coal Reserves will be deplated – 2050 Coal reserves will be depleted by 2050 Dennis

Ndaba Mining Weekly Published on 11th July 2008 . http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=137295 The rate at which South Africa’s coal is being mined is unsus- tainable, and all known reserves will be depleted by 2050, says Bench Marks Foundation chief researcher David van Wyk.

Within one generation, we will not only have consumed the entire resource but we will also have destroyed the environment, along with . . . our ability to produce food. We need to find alternative sources of energy, to reduce “

energy consumption and to guard against destroying our agricultural capacity,” says Van Wyk.

Wood Mackenzie senior coal indus- try analyst and consultant Xavier Prevost tells Mining Weekly all coal reserves will be depleted 50 years from now, but points out that “this does not mean that coal-mining will cease”.

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Fellows

Clean Coal = Elections issue Clean coal is an important elections issue THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH 7-10-2008 http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/07/10/ohio_coal.html?sid=101 July 10, 2008

As Barack Obama returns to Ohio Friday to discuss energy security, the presidential campaigns are arguing about a major piece of the energy picture in the Buckeye State: coal. John McCain, who campaigned Wednesday in coal-rich southern Ohio, has been saying that Obama wants to tax coal, and his supporters have said Obama doesn't back development of so-called “ clean-coal” technology.

Barack Obama is not for clean coal,” Ohio House Speaker Jon Husted, R-Kettering, said this week at a Columbus news conference arranged

“ by the McCain campaign.

But Obama's campaign called those comments “dishonest and laughable,” insisting that as a senator from coal-producing Illinois, Obama has a long record of supporting “clean coal” — and that the charge about taxing coal is a distortion.

fact, both senators call for a “cap-and-trade” system that would limit emissions and allow power plants to buy rights to exceed those limits as a way to discourage pollution and promote alternatives. In

Coal matters to ohio voters, it’s a swing state THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH 7-10-2008 http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/07/10/ohio_coal.html?sid=101 July 10, 2008

Obama also has proposed investing $150 billion over 10 years on “clean energy,” including “ low-emissions coal plants.” McCain has proposed investing $2 billion a year for “advancing clean-coal technologies.” Coal is huge in Ohio, especially in the critical swing area of Appalachian Ohio. According to the Ohio Coal Association, the state ranks third nationally in the consumption of coal, and more than 87 percent of the state's electricity comes from coal. Ohio's coal industry also directly employs more than 3,000. McCain's campaign issued a news release this week saying that although McCain “supports coal as an essential source of energy,” Obama and his supporters “believe coal is a ‘dirty energy' that ought to be taxed.” Paul Lindsay, McCain's Ohio spokesman, said the charge is based on a Feb. 19 Obama quote in the San Antonio Express-News: “What we ought to tax is dirty energy, like coal, and, to a lesser extent, natural gas.” Obama's campaign insists that quote refers to Obama's plan for cap and trade, which would require polluters to pay more — and that if McCain wants to call it a tax, he also supports a tax on coal because he backs a cap-and-trade approach. But Lindsay questioned why Obama would say “tax” if he meant “cap and trade.” “It was Barack Obama who said that words matter,” Lindsay said.

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Isaac Baker, Obama's Ohio spokesman, said “the facts speak for themselves: Sen. Obama would invest five times more than Sen. McCain in securing a new energy future, including clean coal and renewable energy.”

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Fellows

***McCain Will Win***

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McCain Win Obama is barely ahead - conditions are set for a McCain win Yahoo News 7-10-08 “How McCain Could Win” http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win Yesterday, I laid out the very favorable environment for any Democrat running for President this year. I noted that the current Obama lead of 4-5% is very modest, given the structural advantages any Democrat would have in this year's race. But there is another way to look at the race: namely that absent some of the unique structural or environmental advantages that exist for Democrats this year, John McCain should be running away from Barack Obama. While this may sound irrational to some, I believe the key to a McCain victory is to focus his campaign and the voting public on the two candidates themselves -- their life stories, their experiences and accomplishments, their visions for the country, and their characters. If the election is decided on these factors, McCain should win. McCain will win by appealing to moderates - Obama needs to be partisan for funding Yahoo News 7-10-08 “How McCain Could Win” http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win While it is likely that McCain will be outspent, and out organized, he should have enough money to get a message across, if it is focused and he stays on script. By accepting federal campaign funding, McCain will also not have to fundraise during the fall campaign, while Obama will likely waste days if not weeks doing this. It is also the case that fund raising events tend to be very partisan, requiring a candidate to pander to activists. In a general election campaign, when a candidate is trying to move to the center to appear moderate and acceptable to more than the party's base voters (an approach Obama has clearly undertaken of late), a shriller pitch to the base can lead to problems, as it did for Obama in San Francisco a few months back.

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No Uniqueness No decisive winner in the election Schofield 7-10-08 “Obama, McCain too close too call” http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/12922 The latest Gallup poll indicates public opinion on the presidential race is about evenly divided. Beyond that, the poll notes that the number of voters backing the two candidates really hasn't moved much in months. That is a slight, though not deciding, advantage for Barack Obama, who has constitently attracted 46 to 48 percent of respondents. Today in the poll, Barack Obama has a slight, 3 percent lead, over John McCain, but the results are close enough to the poll's margin of error that the race could be almost a dead heat.

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A2: Voting Record Link Obama’s voting record is irrelevant Yahoo News 7-10-08 “How McCain Could Win” http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win After a string of revelations about two opponents' marital problems, Obama wound up effectively running unopposed for the US Senate seat (Alan Keyes was the GOP standard-bearer). In the US Senate, Obama missed many votes in his first term even before he launched his Presidential bid, as he traveled the country speaking to Democratic Party events (and positioning himself with activists for a future Presidential run). Since the campaign began, he has missed virtually all Senate votes and failed to hold meetings of his own subcommittee. So the Obama record is very thin. His major campaign themes have been lofty messages of change and hope and bipartisan unity. This is a smart course to take, when you have little to show for your years in public office. McCain needs to focus on Obama's record of scant legislative accomplishment and inexperience. What has Barack Obama done, as opposed to claiming to have done?

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McCain Alt. Energy Link Alternative energy is a win for McCain Yahoo News 7-10-08 “How McCain Could Win” http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win Finally, there is the energy issue, which is now playing into the hands of the Republicans, if properly handled. Obama and the Democrats say no - to more drilling, and to increased use of nuclear power, and are offering no solutions to the increase in energy costs, which are proving to be a significant and damaging new burden for most American families. The Obama approach: to tax more of oil company profits and to end energy futures speculation, will not change the growing supply demand imbalance, which is a primary reason for rising energy costs. McCain is supporting more drilling, and more nuclear power, and greater conservation. So McCain is for more supply, and reduced demand. Obama and his Party appear to be looking for villains, not solutions.

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A2: Obama Strikes Iran Obama will peacefully engage Iran US News and World Report 7-11-08 “Political Bulletin” http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080710.htm Obama Calls For "Direct Negotiations" ABC World News reported Sen. Barack Obama said in reaction to the missile tests, "The United States has to gather up others in the region, as well as internationally, to apply pressure on Iran. But it's very difficult for us to do so when we haven't shown a willingness to engage in the sort of direct negotiations with Iran that would give them carrots and sticks for a change in behavior." The CBS Evening News reported Obama "said what is needed is direct diplomacy and the threat of tougher sanctions to persuade Iran to drop its nuclear program."

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Fellows

***Elections Internals***

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Turnout/exciteme nt Turnout demo means obama wins AFP July 10th, 2008 (July 10th 2008, Agence-France Presse “Record voter interest in US presidential campaign: poll” http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jEq6tlEMmRujhy_NxcmpofTUHMIQ) WASHINGTON (AFP) — Record numbers of American voters are keenly following the campaign for the White House, auguring for a much higher than usual turnout in November, the Pew Research think-tank said Thursday. "Turnout is likely to be higher this fall -- perhaps much higher than in previous elections -- as voter interest continues at record levels," Pew said in a statement posted on its website. And with more Democrats turning out to vote in the primaries than Republicans, the spike in interest was likely to work in favor of Barack Obama's Democratic Party, Pew said. "Strong and consistent interest and engagement suggests that voter turnout will likely be high in November, as it was during this year's primaries ... Democratic turnout could match or perhaps exceed Republican participation in November, just as it did in most states during the primaries," Pew said.

Democrats are happier with Obama than the GOP base is with McCain Garber July 10, 2008, (Kent, U.S. News, “New Poll Finds More Than Half of Democrats Want Clinton as Obama's Vice President It also shows most voters don't think McCain is too old to be president”, http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign2008/2008/07/10/new-poll-finds-more-than-half-of-democrats-want-clinton-as-obamas-vice-president.html) 1. Excitement: More Democrats than Republicans "are giving a lot of thought" to this year's election. Nearly 8 in 10 Democratic voters say they are engaged in the campaign. Only 60 percent of Republicans said the same. Both figures are up from 2004, but this election is the first in at least two decades in which Democrats have been more engaged than Republicans. Democrats also are a lot happier with their candidate. More than half of Obama supporters identified themselves as "strong" supporters of their candidate. About one third of McCain's backers said the same about their support for him.

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Ec on Econ and Iraq are key issues that swing the vote AFP July 10th, 2008 (July 10th 2008, Agence-France Presse “Record voter interest in US presidential campaign: poll” http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jEq6tlEMmRujhy_NxcmpofTUHMIQ) According to the poll, Obama was leading his Republican rival for the White House, John McCain by 48 percent to 40 percent, and the presumed Democratic candidate's backers showed greater commitment to him than Republican voters did to McCain. "Most voters who say they support Obama -- 28 percent out of the 48 percent -- say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14 percent of 40 percent)," the Washington-based think-tank said. On the key election issue of the floundering economy, 51 percent of voters said they consider Obama better able than McCain (31 percent) to improve economic conditions. McCain came out on top on another key issue, the Iraq war: 47 percent said the Republican candidate would be better placed to make sound decisions on Iraq than Obama, whose decision-making had the backing of 41 percent. The poll also showed that more independents are still sitting on the fence than in June 2004, when President George W. Bush was running for re-election against Democratic contender John Kerry. Nearly half of independents in this year's election -- 46 percent -- said they were undecided or may change their minds, compared with 28 percent in 2004. They could be swayed to Obama's side: the Democrat had a strong lead over McCain in convincing voters to elect him, the poll showed. A majority of voters -- 55 percent -- gave Obama a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him, while less than a third -32 percent -- gave McCain similar marks. Obama's "grade" for winning over voters was better than for any candidate, Democratic or Republican, in the past three campaigns.

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Ec on Econ is key issue Associated Press July 10th, 2008, (“McCain disagrees with adviser's 'whiners' remark”, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD91R86D80) BELLEVILLE, Mich. (AP) — Republican John McCain distanced himself from an economic adviser who dubbed the United States "a nation of whiners" in a "mental recession" as Democrat Barack Obama turned the remarks against his rival. "I strongly disagree" with Phil Gramm's remarks, McCain told reporters in Belleville, Mich. "Phil Gramm does not speak for me. I speak for me." The Arizona senator said a person who just lost a job "isn't suffering from a mental recession." "America is in great difficulty. And we are experiencing enormous economic challenges as well as others," McCain said, seeking to stem the fallout of Gramm's comments. Gramm, a former Texas senator who is a vice chairman of the Swiss bank UBS, made the remarks in an interview with The Washington Times. Gramm has a doctorate in economics. In Virginia, Obama seized on the comments as he tried to paint McCain as out of touch: "America already has one Dr. Phil. We don't need another one when it comes to the economy." He drew cheers and laughter with that comment, a reference to television psychologist "Dr. Phil" McGraw. The economy is the top issue for voters, and each candidate is seeking to portray the other as out of touch with the country's struggles and himself as the leader able to pull the nation out of tenuous times

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Gay Issues Gay Issues are a key issue for the democrats – it will make or break the republican party Murray 07/11/2008 ("The Right, McCain And How To Remain Relevant,” Joe Murray, The Bulletin, Staff Writer) We know Barack Obama is for allowing gays in the military, and Bill Clinton tried to do, but backed off. This is not a popular issue. Gay marriage is another one. These are both issues that I think McCain's going to have to use. You can't ignore the right. If he does, he'll lose." Mr. Barnes is dead wrong. A 2007 CNN poll found 79 percent supported gays serving in the military and a 2006 Zogby poll found 73 percent of military members feel the same way. Marriage numbers have also risen over the last eight years. The gay issue is a losing issue this election cycle and if conservatives insist on making it an issue in this campaign they will go down with Captain E.J. Smith. And Mr. McCain has already proven he does not need conservatives, but their support would be extra cushioning.

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Hilary as VP Taking hilary as his VP is a key issue and could swing the vote Garber July 10, 2008, (Kent, U.S. News, “New Poll Finds More Than Half of Democrats Want Clinton as Obama's Vice President It also shows most voters don't think McCain is too old to be president”, http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign2008/2008/07/10/new-poll-finds-more-than-half-of-democrats-want-clinton-as-obamas-vice-president.html) But the poll does offer a smattering of sometimes-surprising revelations and eye-raising electoral morsels: A sizable fraction of former Hillary Clinton supporters, for example, say they'll vote for McCain over Obama. A vast majority of voters apparently don't give a hoot about McCain's age. More than half of Democrats want Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate. And more than half of conservatives, usually an optimistic lot by nature, say they expect McCain to lose in November. 1.

Excitement: More Democrats than Republicans "are giving a lot of thought" to this year's election. Nearly 8 in 10 Democratic voters say they are engaged in the campaign. Only 60 percent of Republicans said the same. Both figures are up from 2004, but this election is the first in at least two decades in which Democrats have been more engaged than Republicans. Democrats also are a lot happier with their candidate. More than half of Obama supporters identified themselves as "strong" supporters of their candidate. About one third of McCain's backers said the same about their support for him. 2. The Hillary factor: Sixty-nine percent of former Hillary Clinton backers now support Obama. That figure is up 10 points from May, but the Obama campaign still has some catching up to do. About 17 percent of Hillary's camp plans to vote for McCain, and another 12 percent of her former supporters are still undecided. 3. Hillary as veep? Fifty-five percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters want to see Hillary Clinton as the party's vice presidential nominee. That number is up slightly from May, when 53 percent of Democrats said Obama should choose Clinton. But there's a stark schism: Only 37 percent of voters who supported Obama in the primary think he should pick Clinton, compared to 78 percent of former Clinton backers.

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A ge McCain’s too old Garber July 10, 2008, (Kent, U.S. News, “New Poll Finds More Than Half of Democrats Want Clinton as Obama's Vice President It also shows most voters don't think McCain is too old to be president”, http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign2008/2008/07/10/new-poll-finds-more-than-half-of-democrats-want-clinton-as-obamas-vice-president.html) 4. Age: In the eyes of most respondents, McCain isn't too old for the presidency. Seventy-six percent discount his age as a factor. Twenty-one percent do find him too old, but that percentage is down 5 percent from February.

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Obama Could Lose Acting like the eventual winner could cost him the election Huffington Post July 8, 2008 (“How To Blow A Lead In The Second Half” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-folman/how-to-blow-a-lead-in-the_b_111439.html( Perhaps the less-discussed way in which Obama can blow this meaningless way-too-early-to-predict-anything lead in the polls, is to start acting like the frontrunner. McCain is dying for him to do this. In fact, he's counting on it. I think McCain's only real chance in 2008 is to ride the "truth-telling old-timer who everybody counted out to soon" narrative, and Obama plays right into this by acting (as he did in the primary) like someone who expects to be crowned winner. If Obama gets the slightest bit complacent with his lead heading into the fall, the old Rovian characterizations of elitism, out-of-touch-ism, and entitlement can re-emerge. Combine those with the slick say-anything-to-win charges described above, and you could have a perfect storm for McCain, one through which he can ride the S.S. Comeback, the ship he is so desperate to captain. But I don't want to sound bleak. Obama still has the advantage here, and it is his election to lose. A historic victory is within his grasp so long as he remembers the lessons of the football team who entered the second half 17 points ahead: Don't sit on the lead, don't take anything for granted, and, for crying out loud, don't throw out the brilliant strategy that got you this far.

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Too Early Election too early Stephen Lendman July 11, 2008 at 05:13:27 (“McCain's Nomination - A Possible September Surprise?”, Writer for OEN http://www.opednews.com/articles/McCain-s-Nomination---A-Po-by-Stephen-Lendman-080711-209.html) Fast forward to June 14, and the Cook Report said this: "After Clinton dropped out (Democrats quickly united and in Gallup polls) Obama is holding a steady 7-point lead, his largest since Gallup began tracking in March. (Further) Democrats now routinely hold a 6-to-8 point advantage on party identification. So Obama will have a distinct edge if he is as popular among Democrats as McCain is among Republicans. (He) represents the embodiment of change, which is an advantage in this political climate" when voters are begging for it. Yet it's too early to predict an outcome, and months earlier the Cook Report called the race a toss-up. It still says "anyone has a 50-50 chance of picking the winner today."

Too early to predict an impact Eddie Winstead , July 8, 2008 (“Take Ed or Leave Ed: McCain and the Evangelicals”, http://www.opednews.com/articles/TakeEd-or-Leave-Ed--McCai-by-Eddie-Winstead-080708-806.html) McCain did eventually have that sit down with the Grahams, but came away conspicuously lacking an endorsement. Obama, in the meantime, is flailing around all over the place trying to court disenchanted evangelical voters. He’s even out-Bushing Bush with his faith-based initiative proposal. It’s still early, certainly too early to predict exactly how these pieces are going to come together. For the time being, it looks like McCain’s in some hot water with evangelical voters. As a result, it’s going to take a great showing among independents for McCain to have a shot at victory. My verdict: McCain’s in trouble. While he’ll still take the bulk of evangelical voters, it will likely not be enough to overcome Obama’s strength in the center. Obama’s continuing efforts to woo Christian voters make this an even tougher challenge for McCain.

Too early Staff Reporter, June 23, 2008, (“The Frontrunner, http://thedailyvoice.com/voice/2008/06/the-frontrunner-000783.php) As the newspaper put it, "Obama has taken a wide lead among female voters, belying months of political chatter and polls of primary voters suggesting that disappointment over Clinton's defeat might block the Illinois senator from enjoying his party's historic edge among women." Of course, it's still too early to predict the outcome of the November election, but as of now Obama appears to be in a strong position compared to recent Democrats heading into the general election.

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Swing Voters Not Key Swing voters are undecided Garber July 10, 2008, (Kent, U.S. News, “New Poll Finds More Than Half of Democrats Want Clinton as Obama's Vice President It also shows most voters don't think McCain is too old to be president”, http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign2008/2008/07/10/new-poll-finds-more-than-half-of-democrats-want-clinton-as-obamas-vice-president.html) 5. Swing voters: A whopping one third of registered voters say they are currently undecided or could change their minds before November. Only about 21 percent of voters fell into the category in 2004. And this year, their loyalties are split: About one third of the swing vote group is leaning McCain, one third is leaning Obama, and the remaining third is "completely undecided."

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Women’s Rights/Key Womens issues are key Associated Press July 10th 2008, (“For Obama, McCain, varied paths on women's issues”) NEW YORK (AP) — It's women's week on the presidential campaign trail, judging from the attention Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are lavishing on these voters and the issues that are important to them. Obama, campaigning here Thursday with former rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, criticized McCain's opposition to an equal-pay Senate bill, his support for conservative-leaning Supreme Court justices and his abortion-rights objections. "I will never back down in defending a woman's right to choose," Obama said at a "Women for Obama" breakfast fundraiser. McCain planned a similar day Friday when he will meet with female business owners in Minnesota and hold a women-oriented town-hall meeting in Wisconsin. Asked about women in an interview this week, McCain said he wants to "make sure that any barriers to their advancement are eliminated." Obama makes similar remarks, but the two differ sharply on their approach to several key issues. Obama would require employers to expand family and medical leave, for example, while McCain said Thursday it should "be subject to negotiations between management and labor." Women have leaned Democratic in recent elections, while men have tilted Republican. The width of the "gender gap" can determine which party wins the White House.

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Judicial Nominations Judicial nominations outweigh iraq and are the key issue Murray 07/11/2008 ("The Right, McCain And How To Remain Relevant,” Joe Murray, The Bulletin, Staff Writer) How can the Arizona senator woo conservatives - the fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, immigration conservatives, and the handful of stranded Libertarians wandering around the party - in November and unite them? Remember the issue keeping them in line: Judges. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken in May found more Republicans, 30 percent, believed judicial nominations were more important than Iraq, 19 percent, when it comes to how they will vote in November. Sixty-nine percent of all voters believed judges should interpret the law as written and 61 percent trust voters to make important policy decisions over judges or elected officials. If conservatives, especially Christian conservatives, wish to remain influential in future elections and, possibly, in a McCain administration, it's best they fight their battle on the steps of the Supreme Court and let the Castro District be.

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Obama is a 2AR Obama can sway the vote easier than mccain AFP July 10th, 2008 (“Record voter interest in US presidential campaign: poll” , http://afp.google.com/articleALeqM5jEq6tlEMmRujhy_NxcmpofTUHMIQ) "Most voters who say they support Obama -- 28 percent out of the 48 percent -- say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14 percent of 40 percent)," the Washington-based think-tank said. On the key election issue of the floundering economy, 51 percent of voters said they consider Obama better able than McCain (31 percent) to improve economic conditions. McCain came out on top on another key issue, the Iraq war: 47 percent said the Republican candidate would be better placed to make sound decisions on Iraq than Obama, whose decision-making had the backing of 41 percent. The poll also showed that more independents are still sitting on the fence than in June 2004, when President George W. Bush was running for re-election against Democratic contender John Kerry. Nearly half of independents in this year's election -- 46 percent -- said they were undecided or may change their minds, compared with 28 percent in 2004. They could be swayed to Obama's side: the Democrat had a strong lead over McCain in convincing voters to elect him, the poll showed. A majority of voters -- 55 percent -- gave Obama a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him, while less than a third -32 percent -- gave McCain similar marks. Obama's "grade" for winning over voters was better than for any candidate, Democratic or Republican, in the past three campaigns.

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***Competitiveness/Tech* **

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US Tech Competitivenss Waning Titus Galama, James Hosek U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2008 Is the United States in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T)? This concern has been raised repeatedly since the end of the Cold War, most recently in a wave of reports in the mid-2000s suggesting that globalization and the growing strength of other nations in S&T, coupled with inadequate U.S. investments in research and education, threaten the United States’ position of leadership in S&T. Galama and Hosek examine these claims and contrast them with Is the United States20in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T)? This concern has been raised repeatedly since the end of the Cold War, most recently in a wave of reports in the mid-2000s suggesting that globalization and the growing strength of other nations in S&T, coupled with inadequate U.S. investments in research and education, threaten the United States’ position of leadership in S&T. Galama and Hosek examine these claims and contrast them with relevant data, including trends in research and development investment; information on the size, composition, and pay of the U.S. science and engineering workforce; and domestic and international education statistics. They find that the United States continues to lead the world in science and technology and has kept pace or grown faster than other nations on several measurements of S&T performance; that it generally benefits from the influx of foreign S&T students and workers; and that the United States will continue to benefit from the development of new technologies by other nations as long as it maintains the capability to acquire and implement such technologies. However, U.S. leadership in science and technology must not be taken for granted, and Galama and Hosek conclude with recommendations to strengthen the U.S. S&T enterprise, including measures to facilitate the immigration of highly skilled labor and improve the U.S. education system.investment; information on the size, composition, and pay of the U.S. science and engineering workforce; and domestic20and international education statistics. They find that the United States continues to lead the world in science and technology and has kept pace or grown faster than other nations on several measurements of S&T performance; that it generally benefits from the influx of foreign S&T students and workers; and that the United States will continue to benefit from the development of new technologies by other nations as long as it maintains the capability to acquire and implement such technologies. However, U.S. leadership in science and technology must not be taken for granted, and Galama and Hosek conclude with recommendations to strengthen the U.S. S&T enterprise, including measures to facilitate the immigration of highly skilled labor and improve the U.S. education system.

United States = tech leader now http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind00/access/c7/c7s5.htm Industry, Technology, and the Global Marketplace 2000 Summary: Assessment of U.S. Technological Competitivenesse current strong20position of the United States as the world's leading producer of high-technology products reflects its success both in supplying a large home-based market, as well as in serving foreign markets. In addition to the Nation's long commitment to investments in S&T, this success in the international marketplace may in part be a function of scale effects derived from serving this large, demanding domestic market. It may be further aided by the U.S. market's openness to foreign competition. In the years ahead, these same market dynamics may also benefit a more unified Europe and Latin America and a rapidly developing Asia and complement their investments in S&T. Beyond these challenges, the rapid technological development taking place around the world also offers new opportunities for the U.S. S&T enterprise. For U.S. business, rising exports of high-technology products and services to expanding economies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America are already apparent in the U.S. trade data and should grow in the years ahead. For research, the same conditions that create new business opportunities—the growing global technological capacity and the relaxation of restrictions on international business—can lead to new opportunities for the U.S. S&T research community. The many new, wellfunded institutes and technology-oriented universities surfacing in many technologically emerging areas of the world will further scientific and technological knowledge and lead to new collaborations between U.S. and foreign researchers.

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Brink House Science Committee Hearing Summary US COMPETITIVENESS: THE INNOVATION CHALLENGE July 21, 2005 At the same time, other nations most notably China and India have recognized the important links between innovat ion and economic growth and are pouring resources into their scient ific and engineering enterpr ise, rapidly building their capacit y to innovate and with it their abilit y to compete with the US and Europe in an increasingly technology driven global economy. Advocates from nearly every industry sector are calling on Congress toA 0respond to the growing compet it iveness challenge by increasing public investments in science and engineering educat ion and basic research and development.

China rivals US tech leadership now Georgia Tech Report: China Now Rivals United States in Technology Competitiveness Staff -- Semiconductor International, 1/24/2008 A long-running study of technological competitiveness by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta) suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of the world’s economy — a position the United States has held since the end of World War II. With stunning swiftness over the past dozen years, the report concludes, China has moved from a markedly inferior position to rivaling the United States for world technological leadership. And if the 27 nations comprising the European Union were taken as a single entity, Europe would also surpass the United States, according to the report. The indicators predict that China will soon pass the United States in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services, and then market them to the world. The study is part of a continuing look at high-tech competitivness conducted by Georgia Tech researchers since the mid-1980s, when Japan was seen as the competitive threat to the United States. The “High Tech Indicators” (HTI) study ranks 33 nations relative to one another on “technological standing.” The study factors in exports of high-tech products and considers four major inputs based on a combination of statistical data and expert opinions, including national orientation toward technological competitiveness, socioeconomic infrastructure, technological infrastructure, and productive capacity. On the input indicators calculated for 2007, China lags behind the United States. In “national orientation,” China won a score of 62.6, compared with 78.0 for the United States. In “socioeconomic infrastructure,” China rated 61.2, compared with 87.9 for the United States. In the other two factors, China was also behin d the United States, 60.0 vs. 95.5 for “technological infrastructure” and 85.2 vs. 93.4 for “productive capacity.” However, the authors noted that China has been dramatically improving its input scores, which portends even stronger technological competitiveness in the future. With exports factored in, the 2007 statistics show China with a “technological standing” of 82.8, compared with 76.1 for the United States, 66.8 for Germany and 66.0 for Japan. Just 11 years ago, China’s score was only 22.5. The United States peaked in 1999 with a score of 95.4. The United States and Japan have both fallen in relative technological standing — although not in absolute measures — because of the dramatic rise of China and other nations, such as the “Asian Tigers9 D of South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. If the increasingly integrated European Union were considered one entity instead of 27 separate countries, it would surpass the United States. The current “HTI-2007” information was gathered for use in the recently released report by the National Science Foundation (NSF, Arlington, Va.), “Science and Engineering Indicators.” Nils Newman, co-author of the Georgia Tech report, said the indicators point to a competition-among-equals scenario between China and the United States. “For the first time in nearly a century, we see leadership in basic research — and the economic ability to pursue the benefits of that research — to create and market products based on research in more than one place on the planet. “It’s like being 40 years old and playing basketball against a competitor who’s only 12 years old, but is already at your height,” Newman said. “You are a little better right now and have more experience, but you’re not going to squeeze much more performance out. The future clearly doesn’t look good for the United States.” Co-author Alan Porter said, “When you take China’s low-cost manufacturing and focus on technology, then combine them with the increasing emphasis on research and development, the result ultimately won’t leave much room for other countries.”

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Tech Competitiveness Decreasing RAND - NOV 2006 Galama, Titus ; Hosek, James RAND NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INST SANTA MONICA CA Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology: Conference Proceedings

Concern has grown that the United States is losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T). The factors driving this concern include globalization, the rise of science centers in developing countries such as China and India, the increasing number of foreign-born Ph.D. students in the United States, and claims of a shortage of S&T workers in the United States. A loss of prowess in S&T could hurt U.S. economic competitiveness, standard of living, and national security. The Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness asked the RAND Corporation to convene a meeting in November 2006 to discuss these issues. This volume contains the short papers presented at the meeting and discussed by the analysts, policymakers,=2 0military officers, professors, and business leaders who attended. The papers cover a broad range of topics, including science policy, the quantitative assessment of S&T capability, globalization, and the rise of Asia. Taken as a set, the papers provide at least a partial survey of the facts, challenges, and questions posed by the possible erosion of U.S. S&T capabilities. They are, in our view, germane, well grounded, thought provoking, and worthy of serious attention. In addition to this volume, a future report will draw on these papers and other research with the intent of creating an overview and presenting further discussion of the findings and policy implications. Because the follow-on report will involve the selection and interpretation of material by RAND researchers and will not necessarily represent the views of those attending the meeting, it will be issued separately, though it will also draw on the input of the attendees. The debate around the question of whether the United States is losing its competitive edge is a lively one. We hope the reader will enjoy the perspectives offered in these proceedings and that they contribute to an improved understanding of the recent trends in U.S. science and technology.

US Is Tech Leader Now National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources StatisticsScience and Engineering Indicators– 2002 Chapter Summary: Assessment of U.S. Technological Competitiveness Based on various indicators of technology development and market competitiveness, the United States continues to lead, or to be among the leaders, in all major technology areas. Advances in information technologies (i.e., computers and telecommunications products) continue to influence new technology development and dominate technical exchanges between the United States and its trading partners. Although economic problems continue to hamper further progress, Asia's status as both a consumer and developer of hightechnology products is enhanced by the development taking place in many Asian economies, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. Several smaller European countries also exhibit growing capacities to develop new technologies and to compete in global markets. The current position of the United States as the world's leading producer of high-technology products reflects its success in both supplying a large domestic market and serving foreign markets. This success in the international marketplace may be the result of a combination of factors: the nation's long commitment to investments in S&T; the scale effects derived from serving a large, demanding domestic market; and the U.S. market's openness to foreign competition. In the years ahead, these same market dynamics may also benefit a more unified Europe and Latin America and a rapidly developing Asia and complement their investments in S&T. Beyond these challenges, the rapid technological development taking place around the world also offers new opportunities for the U.S. S&T enterprise. For U.S. businesses, rising exports of high-technology products and services to Asia, Europe, and Latin America are already apparent and should grow in the years ahead. The same conditions that create new business opportunities— the growing global technological capacity and the relaxation of restrictions on international business—can also create new research opportunities. The well-funded institutes and technology-oriented universities=2 0that are being established in many technologically emerging areas of the world will advance scientific and technological knowledge and lead to new collaborations between U.S. and foreign researchers.

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US Behind In Tech Race Now January 24, 2008 Technology Indicators: Move Over U.S. –=2 0China to be New Driver of World’s Economy and Innovation Georgia tech research news A new study of worldwide technological competitiveness suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of the world’s economy – a position the U.S. has held since the end of World War II. If that happens, it will mark the first time in nearly a century that two nations have competed for leadership as equals. The study’s indicators predict that China will soon pass the United States in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services – and then market them to the world. Though China is often seen as just a low-cost producer of manufactured goods, the new “High Tech Indicators” study done by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology clearly shows that the Asian powerhouse has much bigger aspirations. “For the first time in nearly a century, we see leadership in basic research and the economic ability to pursue the benefits of that research – to create and market products based on research – in more than one place on the planet,” said Nils Newman, co-author of the National Science Foundation-supported study. “Since World War II, the United States has been the main driver of the global economy. Now we have a situation in which technology products are going to be appearing in the marketplace that were not developed or commercialized here. We won’t have had any involvement with them and may not even know they are coming.” Georgia Tech has been gathering the high tech indicators since the mid-1980s, when the concern was which country would be the “next Japan” as a competitive producer and exporter of technology products. The current “HTI-2007” information was gathered for use in the NSF’s biennial report, “Science and Engineering Indicators,” the mo st recent of which was released January 15.

US Losing Its Tech Leadership Advancing the Business of Technology 2005 Losing the Competitive Advantage? The Challenge for Science and Technology in the United States http://www.aeanet.org/publications/idjj_CompetitivenessOverview0205.asp 10/03/05

Economic Reforms Are Transforming Other Countries’ Economies and Making Them Dramatically More CompetitiveThe United States has long urged the rest of the world to adopt free market principles. The good news is that many countries have now listened and represent new markets for U.S. products and services. Globalization has benefited no country more than the United States. But the bad news is,=2 0ironically, that many countries listened. They have entered the global economy and now aggressively compete against the United States - or soon will.Other Countries Are Adopting and Utilizing Technology To Enhance Their Economic Growth and CompetitivenessThese countries now invest heavily in their high-tech infrastructure and produce talented, highly educated workers and cutting-edge companies. China graduates almost four times as many engineers as the United States and offers lucrative tax breaks to companies conducting R&D there. India is pouring money into technology parks to lure back native talent and produce world class tech companies. South Korea has leveraged rapid technology diffusion to “leapfrog” into the global economy. But the larger point is: a host of countries are catching up to the United States.U.S. Federal R&D Funding That Spawned So Many Technological Breakthroughs in the Twentieth Century Is FalteringThe Internet, MRI, the mouse, and GPS - to name a few - were born from federally sponsored research. R&D funding is vital in supporting innovation because it invests in the technologies that will advance society in the future. Unfortunately, R&D funding has declined over the last decade and a half and the priority has shifted to life sciences.If U.S. Workers Are To Compete in a World Economy That Is Knowledge Based and Driven by Tec hnology, the American Education System Must Improve SubstantiallyA highly skilled workforce is the lifeblood of any successful company, industry, or national economy. Regrettably, the American K-12 system is failing to provide the math and science skills necessary for kids to compete in the 21st century workforce, and the U.S. higher education system cannot produce enough scientists and engineers to support the growth of the high-tech industry that is so crucial to economic prosperity.

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Other Countries Surpassing US Tech Now McCormack 5-16-2008 Richard McCormack No 'Sputnik' Moment To Reassess U.S. Capabilities: China Overtakes United States In Georgia Tech's Global High-Tech Competitiveness Index May 16, 2008 Volume 15, No. 9

China has surpassed the United States in a key measure of high tech competitiveness. The Georgia Institute of Technology's biannual "High-Tech Indicators" finds that China improved its "technological standing" by 9 points over the period of 2005 to 2007, with the United States and Japan suffering declines of 6.8 and 7.1 respectively. In Georgia Tech's scale of one to 100, China's technological standing now rests at 82.8, compared to the U.S. at 76.1. The United States pe aked at 95.4 in 1999. China has increased from 22.5 in 1996 to 82.8 in 2007. "The message speaks out pretty loudly," says Alan Porter, co-director of Georgia Tech's Technology Policy and Assessment Center, which produces the benchmark. "I think the prospects are pretty scary." The Georgia Tech center has been measuring high-tech competitiveness of 33 nations for the past 20 years. It has watched as China has zoomed up to the leading global position in technology. But other nations are showing gains as well including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Brazil, India and Chile. "If the increasingly integrated European Union were considered one entity instead of 27 separate countries, it would surpass the United States," says the Georgia Tech indicator report. Researchers and technologists in developing countries all have acces s to the latest computing and networking technologies. They are engaged in leading-edge research and know where that research is taking place globally. "So what is our big advantage?' Porter asks. The Georgia Tech "High-Tech Indicator" does not measure how active countries are in research, "but in areas like nanotechnology, China now leads the United States in published articles, but what scares me is China is getting better at marrying that research to their low-cost productive processes," says Porter. "When you put those together with our buzzword of innovation, China is big, they're tough and cheap. Again, where is our edge?" Adds Nils Newman, a Georgia Tech co-author of the indicator study: "We have a situation in which technology products are going to be appearing in the marketplace that were not developed or commercialized here. We won't have had any involvement in them and may not even know they are coming." The surge of China past the United States as the global technology powerhouse should be a "Sputnik" moment, but it isn't proving to be. For the most part, federal officials and politicians have been silent. As the economy heads into a downturn, both political parties "are jumping all over each other for the instant fix -- the tax rebate," Porter observes. " 'Problem is all solved. Congratulations!' Wow. I think long term there are things that are not amenable to that solution." The High-Tech Indicator tells a consistent story over the past 15 years of China's authoritarian government setting its mind on achieving global technology and industrial dominance. "China's entire orientation is toward competing," says Porter. "We frown on planning and don't do much, but they have set their mind on it." China's gains have been dramatic. The country has not stumbled once in 15 years. "There is no real sense that any kind of leveling off is occurrin g," says Newman. "Most industrialized countries reach a kind of equilibrium, but the study shows no interruptions in China's advance." China is training more scientists and engineers and is generously funding their research endeavors. The United States is headed in the opposite direction. "The training of scientists and engineers has lagged, and post 9-11 immigration barriers have kept out international scholars who could help fill the gap," says the Georgia Tech indicator study. The Georgia Tech "technology standing" measure of 33 countries is based upon four factors: national orientation toward technological competitiveness, socioeconomic infrastructure, technological infrastructure and productive capacity. Each of the indicators is based on a combination of statistical data and expert opinions. China's ascendancy over 33 nations has "c hanged the world economic landscape in technology," says Porter. Its continued growth and dominance "won't leave much room for other countries." Adds Newman: "It's like being 40 years old and playing basketball against a competitor who's only 12 years old -- but is already at your height. You are a little better right now and have more experience, but you're not going to squeeze much more performance out. The future clearly doesn't look good for the United States."

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Fellows

***Petro Dollar/Dollar Updates***

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Petro dollar buoying the economy Thomas Thursday, July 10, 2008 (Landon Jr. Reporter “Overseas investors pile up more pieces of Americana” http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=14378765) That foray ended badly — many of the investments were unprofitable — and a more insular America, just beginning to worry about its stature as a global economic power, reacted with suspicion. Now, with the dollar down more than 40 percent against the euro and the economy hamstrung by a credit crisis, a less-assured America has become increasingly reliant on foreign capital. While there has been some scrutiny of these investments from Congress, there is also recognition that these funds, which maintain passive investment positions, will perform a crucial petrodollar recycling function. "This is the natural outgrowth of us exporting a huge amount of dollars through high commodity prices to countries that have to reinvest it somewhere," said Douglas Rediker, a sovereign fund expert at the New America Foundation, a research and advocacy organization. "These countries have to extend beyond Treasury bills, and that means equities and real estate."

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Oil exporters continued pricing of oil in dollars is buoying the economy, but doubts about US Econ are causing doubts. Leverett and Leverett June 16. 2008 (Flynt, senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, is a senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Hillary Mann, former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, is chief executive officer of Stratega, a political risk consultancy; “US economic decline top issue” http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART)

To support the US security umbrella, GCC states have extended various types of co-operation to the United States – such as basing rights, pre-positioning of equipment and making their own militaries more “interoperable” with US forces. In addition, GCC states have tied their economies to the United States – through petrodollar recycling, importing US capital goods, pricing international oil sales in dollars and pegging their own national currencies to the greenback. Looking ahead, the United States will remain the Middle East’s military hegemon for years to come, with a unique ability to project substantial military power into the Gulf for at least the next quarter of a century. The

United States economic hegemony, however, is in a serious and continuing decline, as the country continues its run as the world’s leading debtor and the dollar reaches historic lows against other major currencies. In recent years, GCC states have provided vital financial and monetary support for America’s increasingly strained international economic position. But the costs of extending such support to the US economy are steadily rising – a reality reflected in recent debates about the wisdom of the GCC states’ continuing peg of their national currencies to a falling dollar. Also, rising economic powers in Asia are emerging as increasingly important trade and investment partners for the GCC, as the United States becomes more marginal to the region’s economic future.

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International attempts to move away from petrodollar is halted by Saudi Arabia’s support for it. Leverett and Leverett June 16. 2008 (Flynt, senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, is a senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Hillary Mann, former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, is chief executive officer of Stratega, a political risk consultancy; “US economic decline top issue” http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART)

This perfect storm is putting unprecedented strain on the dollar’s international standing. It also makes the sustainability of global economic imbalances a hot topic of debate among economists and financial market players around the world. The policy decisions by GCC states will be critical to determining how this debate ultimately plays out. In the aggregate, the GCC is now almost as important to financing America’s current account deficit as China. On a per-capita basis or as a percentage of gross domestic product, the GCC’s aggregate current account surplus is larger than China’s. Although the GCC states are beginning to diversify their reserve assets, a wholesale move by the GCC away from the dollar as the basis for currency pegs and the transactional currency for international oil trading seems unlikely for now. Saudi Arabia is staunchly opposed to these steps, on what Saudi officials candidly describe as “strategic” rather than economic grounds. Other GCC states are constrained to follow the Saudi lead to avoid damaging prospects on currency pegs for eventual monetary union. Even Kuwait, which shifted the peg for its dinar last year to a “basket” of currencies, gives the dollar disproportionate weight in that basket. And the kingdom carries sufficient weight within Opec to block precipitous shifts in the currency regime for international oil trading.

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Bush not doing enough to secure petro dollar Leverett and Leverett June 16. 2008 (Flynt, senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, is a senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Hillary Mann, former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, is chief executive officer of Stratega, a political risk consultancy; “US economic decline top issue” http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART)

During his recent trip to the Middle East, Henry Paulson, the US treasury secretary, tried to project a welcoming US posture towards financial flows from the GCC. He also went beyond conventional “strong dollar” rhetoric, pledging his determination to keep the dollar as the world’s leading reserve asset. Mr Paulson’s observations notwithstanding, why should anyone believe that the current Bush administration, in its last months, or the next US administration will seriously pursue policies to defend the dollar’s value, such as balancing budgets and raising interest rates? The political debate over economic policy in the United States is headed in precisely the opposite direction. Under such circumstances, how high a price are Gulf Arab states willing to pay to prop up a “deadbeat” United States, which may well choose to let dollar depreciation and inflation write down significant parts of its debt to the GCC and other international creditors?

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Middle Eastern countries fund US hege Leverett and Leverett June 16. 2008 (Flynt, senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, is a senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative. Hillary Mann, former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, is chief executive officer of Stratega, a political risk consultancy; “US economic decline top issue” http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART)

On the strategic front, are GCC states prepared to use their financial support for the United States to influence the ways in which Washington exercises its military hegemony in the region? In private, Gulf Arab officials and elites complain about the consequences of US strategic initiatives in recent years, voicing concerns that US foreign policy may be creating more numerous and potent threats to the security of GCC states than those against which the US military protects them. But, for all that GCC states complain about the invasion and occupation of Iraq, for example, they have effectively financed the whole operation by continuing to purchase US treasury securities and other dollar-denominated reserve assets. Will GCC states be so accommodating again – if, say, the United States initiated a military confrontation with Iran?

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Shift away from the dollar is key internal link to war. Empirically proven. Wallenwein Jun 28, 2008 (Alex; “Dow Stock Market Crash and Iran War Herald End of US Dollar Hegemony” http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article5254.html) Wars are rarely fought over national security issues, as political leaders often claim. At rock bottom, they are mostly fought over economic issues. Iraq and Iran (if Congress and the administration get their way) are the only two countries the US has ever attacked preemptively. They are also the only two oil-producing countries that ever went off the petrodollar. The alleged nuclear ambitions of a terrorist-sponsoring country cannot be the real reason for the planned attack – because terrorist-sponsor North Korea was not only allowed to develop nuclear weapons unmolested, it was even allowed to test-launch a potentially nuclear-tipped ICBM at the US without any military repercussions whatsoever. There goes the "national security" rationalization for this planned attack.

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Euro threatens dollar Wallenwein Jun 28, 2008 (Alex; “Dow Stock Market Crash and Iran War Herald End of US Dollar Hegemony” http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article5254.html) This fact exposes the attacks for what they really are. tools of US monetary policy. The dollar has no real value internationally, save for the fact that the now militarily enforced necessity for countries to buy dollars in order to buy oil creates artificial demand. The euro's existence threatens all of this, now. Oil countries have a dollar-alternative in the euro, and so does the rest of the world. The euro is designed to not be quite as inflationary as the dollar is and has been. This is done by virtue of the ECB's exclusive mandate of "price stability", another word for inflation fighting.

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Dollar maintains strength-- less jobless claims Nick Godt July 10, 2008 “Dollar maintains strength after big drop in jobless claims” http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-maintains-strength-after-big/story.aspx?guid=%7B868827153D2E-4B91-BD09-8ED7206D1CA8%7D&dist=hpmp NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar maintained earlier strength on Thursday after a report showing a huge drop in weekly jobless claims, while updates on June sales saw U.S. retailers getting a boost from rebate checks. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.3% at 72.76. Jobless claims fell by 58,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. At 346,000, initial claims were the lowest since April, though analysts said auto plant shutdowns and the July 4 holiday likely skewed the data. Many retailers also provided updates on June sales, which got a lift from government rebate checks and warmer weather.

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Dollar climbing RealTimeTraders.com 7/10/2008

“US dollar shows strength against most major Latin American currencies” http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CurrencyMarket.aspx?Node=b3&Id=651673

The US currency advanced to a 23-day high against the Brazilian real and a 7-day high versus the Colombian peso during New York trading on Thursday. But against the Mexican and Chilean peso, the greenback showed some weakness during this session. On the economic front in the US, the Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims dropped to 346,000 for the week ended July 5, down 58,000 from the previous week's revised figure. And the continuing claims, which measure the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment help, edged up 91,000 to a level of 3.2 million for the week ended June 28.

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Dollar upticking Lynch 7-9-08, David J. USA TODAY “Dollar's decline could be close to end after Europe raises rate” http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-07-09dollar_N.htm

Despite losing ground Wednesday, the dollar may be nearing the end of its protracted decline. The greenback has traded in a narrow range against the euro since the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate last Thursday, a possible sign that the worst is over for the beleaguered currency."The dollar is flirting around a bottom and poised to turn upwards," says Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. Wednesday, the dollar weakened to $1.5746 against the euro. The past seven years, the dollar has lost 40% against an index of U.S. trading partners' currencies. That's given U.S. exports a boost, making them less expensive for foreign buyers. But it's made imported products more costly and given American tourists in Europe sticker shock. Markets had anticipated the ECB's recent quarter-point rate increase. But amid signs of spreading economic weakness in Europe, many now believe ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold off on future increases. The evidence is mixed. Trichet told the European Parliament Wednesday that inflation was "worrying," which might suggest additional rate increases. But Europe's central banker last week explicitly said he had "no bias" toward continuing to raise rates, now at 4.25%. "The

ECB is close to the end of its tightening campaign while the Fed has just completed its easing. That's potentially very favorable for the dollar," says Stephen Jen, currency strategist for Morgan Stanley in London. Boosting the dollar: multiplying signs of global weakness, both in emerging markets and Europe. Germany and the United Kingdom earlier this week reported significant declines in industrial output. A broad European slowdown would likely keep the ECB from raising

And with the key U.S. lending rate at a low 2%, the Federal Reserve's next move is expected to be an increase. Higher interest rates would attract investment flows from other countries and push the dollar up. Marc Chandler, Brown rates.

Bros. Harriman senior vice president for currency strategy, says the Fed could raise rates at its December meeting. He sees the euro at $1.47 by year's end. Little noticed

the dollar has clawed back from lows against the British pound and Japanese yen. It's up about 6% against the yen since mid-March and roughly the same amount against the pound since November. The dollar also has strengthened against some Asian currencies, notably the South Korean won and Vietnamese dong. amid the general economic gloom,

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Fellows

***Saudi Arabia***

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SAUDI-US TIES ARE HIGH—OIL AND WEAPON IMPORTS Rothwell—2008 (Steve Rothwell is a Staff Writer for the Bloomberg, ’BAE Bribery Scandal Shows Saudi Oil Won't Hurt Shareholders”, 7/11/08, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoqqempIl7ZM&refer=home) By Steve Rothwell The Saudis, owners of the world's largest oil reserve, have used their wealth as prices have climbed to record highs to cultivate influence with Western countries and become the biggest importer of weapons. ``The essential relationship between the West and Saudis is that the West provides know-how and a security umbrella, and, in return, the Saudis provide the petroleum,'' said Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based research group. ``The Saudis have managed repeatedly to assert their dominance in this relationship.'' SAUDI PROFITS ARE HIGH NOW Mauldin—2008 (John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA) which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS) an FINRA registered broker-dealer, “Global Geopolitics: Saudi Arabian Petrodollars Driving Containment of Iran”, 7/10/08, http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article5402.html) The Arab Gulf states are grossing approximately $2 billion per day , with half of that amount flowing into the coffers of Saudi Arabia. This provides the Saudis — and other Gulf Arabs — not only with tremendous wealth, but also with tremendous political power. A key trend in the third quarter will have these states using that wealth to invest, bribe and cajole their friends and enemies into following policies more to Riyadh's liking. US DEMAND IS DECREASING—SAUDI ARABIA IS PREPARING TO INCREASING PRODUCTION FOR OPEC Lewis—2008 (Barbara Lewis is a Staff Writer Reuters “IEA sees more comfortable oil market for 2009”, 7/10/08, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7642393) Demand for oil products is still strong in developing countries. That partly offsets lower consumption in the developed world, notably from the biggest energy user the United States, which has changed its habits as oil prices have leapt to records above $145 a barrel. To try to calm markets, OPEC's biggest producer Saudi Arabia has said it would pump 9.7 million bpd in July, up from 9.45 million bpd in June. The IEA said the extra Saudi oil had helped to increase OPEC production by 350,000 bpd in June, pushing output from the 13-member group t0 32.4 million bpd, the IEA said. OIL IS AT THE CENTER OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR THE NEAR FUTURE Liang—2008 (Yan Liang, “Saudi oil minister: Oil remains essential for future energy needs”, 7/4/08, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/04/content_8486030.htm) MADRID, July 3 (Xinhua) -- Oil remains essential to meet expanding energy needs in the foreseeable future, unchallenged by alternatives which are getting popular amid record high oil prices, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said on Thursday. "Oil will continue to be an essential part of global energy mix for many years to come," Naimi told delegates who were wrapping up a five-day World Petroleum Congress. The biggest gathering of the world petroleum industry in every three years ended as the international oil prices touched a new record high around 146 U.S. dollars per barrel Thursday, which compelled many countries to resort to alternative energies, including biofuels. "Currently petroleum is unrivaled in its ability to provide safe, efficient and cost-effective transportation to the world's people and I see little to change this in the foreseeable future," Naimi said. Naimi said the beginning of the 21st century has been a tumultuous time for petroleum and energy markets.

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OIL MARKETS ARE SURGING NOW—ALTERNATIVES WONT STOP THIS Liang—2008 (Yan Liang, “Saudi oil minister: Oil remains essential for future energy needs”, 7/4/08, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/04/content_8486030.htm) "Oil markets have witnessed surging demand, political instability, severe weather, infrastructure mishaps, fears of a global climate, catastrophe, changing specifications in international product market, the flow of speculative funds into oil futures and pessimism about the availability of petroleum resources to meet future needs," he said. World energy demand was expected to increase fast over the next 20 to 30 years due to population growth and the demands of people in both the developed and developing countries for increased prosperity and greater personal mobility. Naimi pointed out the task of meeting this rising energy demand was complicated by mounting concerns that the use of carbon-based fuels contributing to global climate change. Dubbed as "the Olympics of the oil and gas industry", the congress held discussions under the motto "A world in transition: delivering energy for sustainable growth." Naimi said although he welcomes supplementary energy sources like biofuels, which were considered as more clean, they were not replacements at scale for petroleum and they would have drawbacks and challenges. "A common theme we hear these days is that we need to look pastpetroleum for the solutions to our future energy challenges," he said. "Such statements create the false impression that jettisoning oil is a requisite for progress in meeting our energy and environmental goals." OIL PRICES ARE HIGH NOW—SAUDI ARABIA IS PREPARING TO INCREASE PRODUCTION Bird—2008 (David Bird is a Contributor for the Wall Street Journal “Oil's Climb Defies Saudi Bid, To Talk Prices Down”, 11/7/08, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121538245435630879.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) Oil markets are dealing a blow to Saudi Arabia's efforts to calm prices with assurances of future supplies. Benchmark crude prices set an intraday record near $146 a barrel Thursday in New York, a gain of more than $15 a barrel, or 11.5%, from an intraday low of $130.80 on June 10 after Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah called for a hastily arranged producer-consumer summit. August light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled Thursday at a record $145.29 a barrel, up $1.72. Oil prices whipsawed last month on optimistic trial balloons of Saudi output rising to 10 million barrels a day -- a generational high -- but the announcement coming out of the June 22 talks in Jeddah was that the short-term increases would take output to 9.7 million barrels a day in July. The production increase and a round of recent comments from Saudi officials have done little to take the steam out of rampaging oil prices, up over 50% this year so far. The problem for Saudi Arabia and others trying to corral prices is that when the market focuses on the Middle East these days, it is with a nervous eye over increasingly tense Iran-Israel relations, not Saudi oil flows. "For the moment, the market is still preoccupied with the question: How high can it go?" said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. Oil minister Ali Naimi has been on a media campaign, apparently aimed at persuading the market that long-term supply concerns are unfounded. "We can pump 11 million [barrels a day] sustainably for a long, long time," he said, yet prices continued to climb. Saudi Arabia is in the midst of an expansion plan to lift potential production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009 from 11.4 million now. Mr. Naimi's assertion that Saudi Arabia could potentially boost capacity even further after that, perhaps as high as 15 million barrels a day, appears to have fallen on equally deaf ears. SAUDI ARABIA WILL DROP THE PRICES NOW TO INCREASE DEMAND Bird—2008 (David Bird is a Contributor for the Wall Street Journal “Oil's Climb Defies Saudi Bid, To Talk Prices Down”, 11/7/08, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121538245435630879.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) While Saudi words flow and more barrels trickle to the market, traders will be watching to see if the kingdom acts to discount its oil, especially if prices keep marching higher. Such a bold pricing move by

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the Saudis, the world's largest oil supplier, might blunt further price gains, but would likely cause upheaval within OPEC, where some countries already have been critical of the unilateral Saudi output rise. "We are worried by the [oil] price," Mr. Naimi said in Madrid last week, but wouldn't address whether customers were reluctant to pay current high prices for the kingdom's grade of heavy crude oil, which is more difficult to process. "Saudi Arabia is ready to raise production if 'needed,' according to the kingdom's oil minister ... but the issue of marketability is skirted," Harry Tchilingurian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said. "There is no indication that deeper discounts should be expected." The oil price gains have come despite distinct signs of falling demand in the U.S. Oil demand in the U.S. fell by nearly 400,000 barrels a day from a year earlier, to 20.342 million barrels a day in June, preliminary data from the Energy Information Administration show. That would be the weakest demand level for all of June since 2003. SAUDI ARABIA IS PREPARING TO INCREASE PRODUCTION Ambah—2008 (Faiza Saleh Ambah is a Staff Writer for the Washington Post Foreign Service, 6/23/08, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/23/ST2008062300651.html) JIDDAH, Saudi Arabia, June 22 -- Saudi Arabia on Sunday promised to increase oil production as needed while Western countries agreed to improve the transparency and regulation of financial markets, signaling a readiness from oil-producing and oil-consuming nations to make concessions and work together to tackle runaway prices. "I would like to state that for the remainder of this year Saudi Arabia is prepared and willing to produce additional barrels above and beyond the 9.7 million barrels per day which we plan to produce during the month of July, if demand for such quantities materializes and our customers tell us they are needed," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said at the meeting, attended by officials from more than 30 countries and 25 oil companies.

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DECREASED DEMAND IS SURGING PRICES—SAUDI ARABIA IS AT THE CORE Ambah—2008 (Faiza Saleh Ambah is a Staff Writer for the Washington Post Foreign Service, 6/23/08, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/23/ST2008062300651.html) U.S. officials had said that financial markets were only following, not creating, the price hikes and that insufficient oil supplies, partly due to increased demand from booming economies in China and India, were driving prices up. "We see no evidence that financial market participation in the commodity market, the oil market in particular, has led to some systematic bias in energy prices," said Reuben Jeffery III, undersecretary of state for economic affairs. Saudi Arabia, one of the few countries with sufficient spare capacity, has been under intense pressure from the United States and other oil consumers to increase its crude output to help slow soaring oil prices, which have driven significant increases in the cost of food and other basic goods. SAUDI ARABIA WILL INREASE STABILIZE THE MARKET Ambah—2008 (Faiza Saleh Ambah is a Staff Writer for the Washington Post Foreign Service, 6/23/08, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/23/ST2008062300651.html) Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Persian Gulf countries have cited a host of reasons for the price volatility, including pressures affecting major oil-producing countries such as Iran, Iraq and Nigeria. On Sunday, Saudi officials asked that everyone reduce rhetoric to calm prices, a reference to tensions between the United States and Iran. High oil taxes, insufficient refining capacity and the weakening dollar, in which oil is priced, have also been blamed in part for the price hikes. In a sign of commitment to ease prices, Saudi Aramco on Sunday signed a deal with French energy giant Total to build a refinery in the eastern Saudi city of Jubail with the capacity of refining 400,000 barrels of oil a day. The kingdom has announced investments of $90 billion over the next four years in oil and gas projects to increase production capacity and improve refining facilities. "We want to tell the world today there is a problem, and we're willing to take our part and our share in solving it," said Abdullah Jumaa, head of Saudi Aramco. At the summit's final news conference, Naimi said the success is that "we were looking for solutions, instead of blame, and the conclusion is let's work together because there's a real problem that hurts everyone." Also Sunday, Saudi King Abdullah called for a $1 billion energy initiative to help poor countries combat the rising fuel costs. He also said Saudi Arabia would contribute $500 million to help provide loans to poor countries for development and energy projects. CHINA SAUDI RELATIONS ARE HIGH Yao—2008 (Amber Yao, “China-Saudi relations at best stage ever”,6/21/08, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/21/content_8412145.htm) RIYADH, June 21 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is due to arrive here Saturday for an official visit at the invitation of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz. Xi's visit comes at a time when bilateral relations are at their best stage ever, and is expected to further boost the friendly, cooperative relationship between China and Saudi Arabia. The Chinese leader is scheduled to meet with King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan, and hold indepth discussions on bilateral issues, and international and regional affairs of common concern. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1990, bilateral ties have witnessed smooth and rapid development, helped by the joint efforts of the leaders, the governments and people of both countries. Mutual political trust has continued to deepen, along with marked reinforcement in communication and cooperation in sectors such as trade, energy, culture, education, health care and religion. The two countries hold a shared perspective on many major international and regional issues, and have maintained coordination and cooperation in international affairs. The heads of the two nations exchanged visits in 2006. King Abdullah visited China in January, while Chinese President Hu Jintao paid a return visit in April the same year. The leaders reached agreements on developing the friendly and cooperative strategic partnership, turning a new page in bilateral ties. The two nations have great potential in cooperation related to trade, energy, construction contracts and mutual investment.

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Saudi Arabia is China's largest trading partner in West Asia and North Africa, while China is Saudi Arabia's fourth largest trading partner.

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SAUDI ARABIA IS INCREASING PRODUCTION NOW Yetiv—2008 (Steve Yetiv is a Staff Writer for the Houston Chronicle, “The challenges of peak oil; We may not be doomed, but we also may not be ready for all of its effects” 6/29/08, http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/5861525.html) n the past, OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, have often increased oil production to try to prevent prices from rising high enough to trigger alternative energy exploration; a Western political backlash; and the ire of the gendarme of the Persian Gulf — the United States. In fact, when I visited OPEC headquarters in May 2003, OPEC researchers underscored how OPEC was keeping the price of the OPEC oil basket at around $22-28 per barrel (roughly $25-31 on the New York Mercantile Exchange). And, OPEC did succeed in doing so more than 80 percent of the days from June 2001 to June 2003. Recently, the Saudis announced that they will boost daily oil production by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of July, though most of this oil will probably not be sweet crude, which the world most needs. Moreover, Saudi Arabia reiterated that it has a $50 billion plan to increase production by another 30 percent in the coming years. But, even so, how can we explain the lack of any action until now, as prices have spiked dramatically? HIGH PRICES ARE OCCURING NOW DUE TO PEAK OIL—THIS WILL AUSE ALT ENERGIES WHICH WOULD SAVE THE DOLLAR Yetiv—2008 (Steve Yetiv is a Staff Writer for the Houston Chronicle, “The challenges of peak oil; We may not be doomed, but we also may not be ready for all of its effects” 6/29/08, http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/5861525.html) Oil industry giants such as Exxon continue to insist that we have plenty of oil for decades, but then add that more investments are needed for offshore exploration. What they are really saying is that higher oil prices are due to Peak Oil – the decline in conventional oil reservoirs, which is forcing companies to focus on non-conventional oil. They use word games to hide the truth because they realize any possibility of Peak Oil will cause a push for alternative energy, which would threaten their monopoly. OPEC plays the same game. Washington goes along with these fantasies as well for a much bigger reason – the preserve the dollar-oil link. CURRENT DEPENDENCE GIVES SAUDI ARABBIA THE ABILITY TO COLLAPSE THE DOLAR AND INCREASE TERRORISM—BUSH WOULD DELAY ANY ALT ENERGY POLICY TO MAINTAIN RELATIONS Yetiv—2008 (Steve Yetiv is a Staff Writer for the Houston Chronicle, “The challenges of peak oil; We may not be doomed, but we also may not be ready for all of its effects” 6/29/08, http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/5861525.html) You see folks, as long as the world is dependent on oil, the dollar remains backed by crude since you can only buy it with the dollar (with one rare exception to be mentioned shortly). This dollar-oil link helps keep the dollar as the universal currency. And because the entire world must use the dollar, you can imagine how that dilutes the inflationary effects of the Fed's printing presses. This is the secret that virtually no one realizes. It is not a conspiracy. It is a fact. And the few in Washington who realize it are never going to admit it. But consider why it is that America has such good relations with the Saudis. After all, it was President Nixon who negotiated with the Saudi Royal family to demand dollar payments for oil shortly after severing the finally link to the gold standard. Soon after all of OPEC followed suit. In exchange for the dollar-oil link, the Saudi Royal family receives the protection of the U.S. military. This is why the Saudis are rarely criticized by Washington. They have earned a blanket exception for virtually anything they do, including involvement in terrorism and yes, even including holding down oil output. The Saudis know well that they have a good deal of control over the fate of the U.S. economy. Given the fact that Iran has now created an oil exchange that accepts only the Euro, you should understand why they want nuclear weapons – for protection against a U.S. attack. Severing the dollar-oil link is the easiest way to destroy the U.S. And any committed push to transition the U.S. into alternative energy threatens to destroy the global enslavement by the dollar-oil link. Saddam Hussein tried to sell oil accepting only the Euro in 2000 and we know what happened to him. Alternative energy will come. But it will come slowly and Washington will make sure of this. Incidentally, I discuss this as one of many critical topics in my book "America's Financial Apocalypse."

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OOIL PRICES ARE HIGH—SAUDI ARABIA WILL INCREASE PRODUCTION TO RESPOND Mandaro—2008 (Laura Mandaro is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco, “Saudi oil summit mulls controls on speculators”, 6/21/08, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/saudi-summit-someurge-crackdown/story.aspx?guid=%7B5DB12B01-C94B-4BEB-87355B5DF6B03632%7D&dist=hplatest) A U.S. delegation led by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman is joining the swiftly convened meeting of large oil consuming and producing nations, arranged by Saudi Arabia to address complaints about oil prices near $140 a barrel. The White House has urged more production, both at home and abroad, as the best solution to reversing a rally in oil prices. Some in Congress, however, are pushing for more regulation of financial investors in commodities. See full story. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer of oil, is expected to reveal more about its production plans on Sunday. On Friday, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Jeddah the country would raise its production level by 200,000 barrels a day starting next month, according to media reports. That increase, which had been anticipated, would lift total daily production to 9.7 million barrels per day. A Saudi source told Reuters Saturday that the planned increase in output was designed to meet customers' request.

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Fellows

***Obama Will Win***

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Obama will win-he isn’t “too liberal” but instead unites America The Wallstreet Journal, “Obama Doesn’t Have to Win as a Liberal,” July 11, 2008 In a sense this is overdue. For all the talk about reaching out to Republicans and independents, Mr. Obama's proposals have been far less challenging to conventional liberal thinking than were Bill Clinton's in 1992 -- when Mr. Clinton forced Democrats to overhaul their approach to such central issues as welfare, trade and crime. Mr. Obama's true audacity (and accomplishment) thus far has been to rebrand liberal goals on health care and economic security as "common sense" reforms behind which all Americans can unite.

Virginia is a battleground state-Obama will win it The Washington Times, “Obama Marshals Forces in Virginia,” July 11, 2008 Virginia has emerged as a battleground for the presidential race, prompting many to ask, "Can Barack Obama win the state?" Democrats are excited about his chances because he could win Virginia - following the model set by the party's recent statewide victories - by capturing a big margin in Northern Virginia. Earning enough votes there can deliver the entire state. That's one reason Thursday marked Mr. Obama's second trip to the region in less than 40 days, and his third visit to the state since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. Mr. Obama has moved a historic level of cash and staffers into the Old Dominion to wage a full battle for its 13 electoral votes. The last Democrat to win the state was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. His Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, has based his headquarters in Arlington and Thursday night held a "Tele-Town Hall" event for Virginia voters. But the state is changing, and its populous - and expanding - Washington suburbs are vote-rich and have delivered wins for Democrats in recent years.

Obama is winning where it matters-in the electoral college. This evidence is predictive and accurate. DL-Online, “Zogby Poll: Obama Leads McCain in Electoral College Tally 273-160,” July 7, 2008 As the race for President passes the Independence Day holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 44 percent to 38 percent lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest, but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows. The extensive national poll of 46,274 likely voters also shows Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6 percent support, eating into McCain’s needed conservative base of support. The online survey was conducted from June 11-30, 2008. It carries a margin of error of 0.5

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percentage points. After nearly a decade in development, the Zogby Interactive survey on a state level was remarkably accurate in the 2006 midterm elections. In 18 U.S. Senate elections polled two years ago, the Zogby online survey correctly identified the winner of 17 of 18 races, and in the 18th race – in Missouri, it was still within the margin of error, though it had Republican Jim Talent winning (he was defeated narrowly by Democrat Claire McCaskill). This latest extensive survey of all 50 states reveals that while Obama holds a narrow lead in the national preference test, he holds a substantial advantage right now in the Electoral College. Using this survey — and an average of other public state polls in certain states to corroborate the Zogby results — Zogby calculates that Obama leads McCain, 273-160. A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are within the margin of error and therefore too close to call. A candidate needs 270 to be elected president. Barr is shifting votes away from McCain-Obama will win independents and the electoral college DL-Online, “Zogby Poll: Obama Leads McCain in Electoral College Tally 273-160,” July 7, 2008 Pollster John Zogby: “Obama is in the driver’s seat right now, especially where it really counts — in the electoral votes. Bob Barr could really hurt McCain’s chances. “McCain can’t afford the level of slippage to Barr we found among conservatives in this polling. While there has been plenty of talk about Obama’s recent emphasis on his centrist positions, he can get away with it during these dog days of the campaign as McCain finds himself still trying to shore up the conservative base. “McCain will have to move to the center because right now Obama is clobbering him among independents. But there is the rub for McCain: Bob Barr has some juice among conservatives and is hurting him in several states. ” Bob Barr receives the support of 7 percent of voters who identify themselves as conservative or very conservative voters. Barr gets 43 percent of libertarians and 11 percent of independents. McCain’s support among conservatives is 74 percent. On the left, Ralph Nader gets less than 2 percent nationally. Obama has the support of 83 percent of Democrats, while McCain gets 75 percent of Republicans.

Obama is forcing McCain to re-win traditionally republican states The Herald Tribune, “Under US system, presidential votes really matter only in swing states,” June 29, 2008 Obama intends to use his record-breaking fundraising amounts to make himself competitive in some of the states his party typically ignores, particularly in the South and Mountain West. He believes that will give the Democrats a better chance to win the White House and force McCain spend time campaigning in states that Republicans can normally count on.

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Obama will win-his youth represents change to voters who associate McCain with the Bush regime’s failures OpEdNews.com, “Obama’s Southern Strategy,” July 10, 2008 The first part is to play upon McCain's inherent weaknesses as a candidate. One is his age: many voters believe the 71-year-old Arizona Senator is too old to be President. Another weakness is his connection to President Bush, who is extremely unpopular. Obama's comparative youthfulness underscores his claim to represent change, a new way of looking at America's problems, a message that appeals to younger voters. Another McCain weakness is the fact many evangelicals do not see him as a fellow traveler, as a committed Christian. Even though McCain has paid lip service to conservative evangelical positions on abortion and gay marriage, to many southern Christians he lacks religiosity. To many Republicans, McCain is more reminiscent of General George Patton than President Ronald Reagan, bellicose rather than inspirational. Obama is winning traditionally Republican states and will maintain his lead over McCain LifeNews.com, “Electoral College Projection Shows Obama Defeating McCain by Narrow Vote,” June 20, 2008 According to the projections, if the election were held today Obama would become the next president with a 285-253 electoral college victory. The post-primary bounce Obama has experienced has propelled him to new leads over McCain in states like Ohio and Virginia where McCain had small leads before. Looking at the electoral college map, Obama has 91 solid votes with most of them coming from the northeastern states that have typically voted for Democrats for president. Obama also brings home 194 electoral votes from states that are barely or more solidly leaning towards him. Those include very narrow leads in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. Obama also has small leads in competitive states like Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

Obama can win without Florida or Ohio Digital Journal, “Florida and Ohio Are Not Necessarily Required For Victory, Says Obama Campaign,” June 16, 2008 David Plouffe, the campaign manager to the Obama campaign was at a fundraiser last Friday in Washington DC. There were donors and former Clinton supporters present at the brewery where the fundraiser event was held. Plouffe outlined an alternative to getting the needed 270 electoral votes without Florida and Ohio. Obama will win-he has a more successful marketing strategy The Wallstreet Journal, “Obama Is Catching up to McCain in Television Add Spending,” July 11, 2008 In the three weeks since Barack Obama launched his first general-election television ad he has all but erased John McCain's three-month headstart in ad spending on the airwaves. The McCain campaign has spent more, with an estimated $15 million spent on TV since late March, according to figures compiled by TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group. But the Obama team is making up for its later arrival to the contest by spending money on TV spots at a much faster clip than its rival.

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Obama will win Frank James, staff writer for The Swamp, June 16, 2008 Not only has Barack Obama recently opened a small lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, but he leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November. Reporting today on the results of a survey taken June 9-12, Gallup reports that "Democrats are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in November - 76 percent say Obama will win.'' Republicans are more bullish about McCain's chances -- 67 percent. "What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Obama is that, by a ninepercentage point margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely to win,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad writes. Obama will win-independent support Digital Journal, “Majority of Americans Feel Obama Will Win, According To New Poll”, June 16, 2008 But the main X-factor of the elections would be the Independents. In the Democratic primary, Obama received much support from Independent voters. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was not as lucky. Clinton’s support had come mainly from the Democratic constituency. The other bloc known as the Clinton supporters should not be discounted as a possible X-factor as well. In a 50 to 41 percent result, Independents feel that it will be Obama who ends up taking the US Presidency this November. Still, both candidates have enjoyed much needed support from this known swing bloc of voters.

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Obama will win the election-his technological savvy allows him to relate to young voters The Marketing Pilgrim, “Barack Obama Will Win the US Presidency-Guaranteed!” June 20, 2008 So, why am I predicting guaranteeing that Barack Obama will reign supreme (thanks to you no less)? Because you represent one of the record-breaking 46% of Americans that have used the internet, email or cell phone text messaging to get news about the campaigns, share your views and mobilize others. Guess which candidate is the most savvy in online politics? Can you say Barack Obama? Consider these political race related internet statistics: 35% of Americans say they have watched online political videos–a figure that nearly triples the reading the Pew Internet Project got in the 2004 race. 10% say they have used social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace to gather information or become involved. This especially applies to younger voters: two-thirds of internet users under the age of 30 have a social networking profile, and half use social networking sites to get or share information about the campaigns. 6% of Americans have made political contributions online during the primaries, versus 2% during the entire 2004 campaign. 39% of have used the internet to access campaign materials; including videos of candidate debates, speeches, announcements, position papers and speech transcripts. In a true showing of the impact Barack Obama is having, 12% of online 18-29 year olds have posted their own political commentary or writing to an online newsgroup, website or blog. To whom do you think the majority profess their allegiance? You guessed it – Barack Obama. Obama will win-independent support CNN politics, “Poll: Majority Believe Obama Will Win General Election,” June 16, 2008 In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventysix percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party. Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is winning over traditionally republican states-he controls the West Election Center, “Poll: Obama Leads McCain in Swing States,” June 18, 2008 The latest CNN national poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation, shows Obama running strongest in the West -- and not just California. "The 10 Rocky Mountain states have been traditionally the most Republican part of the country. So that's why it's so amazing that the polls show Obama doing well out here," said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, three Western states that Bush carried by narrow margins in 2004, now look vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, even though they all border McCain's Arizona.

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So what's behind the change? "In the upper-class suburbs of Denver that used to be so solidly Republican, a lot of aspects of the Bush administration have not played well there," Loevy said. "His war policies, his policies on abortion, gay marriage ... simply have not played well with the old Republican Party out there in the Rocky Mountain west. So it's in the upscale suburbs that we see the strongest shift to the Democrats." Obama is leading-McCain is seen as a continuation of Bush CBS News, “CBS Poll: Obama Leads McCain,” June 4, 2008 Obama is seen as caring a lot about voters' problems by 38 percent of registered voters, versus just 22 percent for McCain. Both candidates are seen as sharing values by a roughly even percentage of respondents, 63 percent for McCain and 62 percent for Obama. Obama has a 41 percent favorable rating - down three percentage points from last month - and a 31 percent unfavorable rating. McCain has a 34 percent favorable rating - up two points from last month and a 37 percent unfavorable rating. Obama and other Democrats have repeatedly stressed that McCain’s policies would essentially mean a third term for Mr. Bush. More than four in ten voters believe McCain would, indeed, generally continue Mr. Bush’s policies.

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Fellows

***OilPeak/Prices***

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Peak Oil Peak oil is here oil prices increasing Riddoch 4 Dr. Malcom Riddoch, Faculty of communications and creative industries, edith cowan university, june 19 2004 http://www.melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2004/06/72000_comment.php Obviously it's all about the neo-colonial theft of Iraqi oil but the motivation driving this theft is rather more urgent than just funnelling oil into Haliburton's maw. Apparently, according to oil industry people and independent geologists, Hubbert's Peak has possibly already arrived with a plateau in global oil production this very year, midpoint peak by 2008 and terminal decline setting in from 2010. You may have noticed a growing number of stories about it but for those of you who don't know, peak oil occurs when half the oil in the ground around the world has been pumped out. From that moment on the remaining oil is harder to extract, so they pump water and natural gas into the oil field to maintain pressure as the production in barrels per day declines. Using more energy to pump it out and less of a flow means oil is more expensive to produce and there's increasingly less of it to go around. Or in other words, and it's just a simple geological fact, there's no more cheap oil.

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Oil Prices High The world economy is facing an unprecedented shock due to oil prices Sekiguchi & Argitis 8 (By Toko and Theophilos, Bloomberg News Reporters, “G-8 Says Oil, Food Prices Pose Risk to World Economy”, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7BHmYZnKV9s&refer=home) `We have strong concerns about the sharp rise in oil prices,'' the group said in a statement today in Toyako, Japan, where the leaders are holding their annual summit. ``The world economy is now facing uncertainty and downside risks persist.'' Leaders from the U.S., Japan, Germany, Italy, Britain, France, Canada and Russia proposed holding a forum between energy producers and consumers to focus on energy efficiency after oil prices reached an unprecedented $145.85 a barrel on July 3. The MSCI World Index of stocks fell today to the lowest in almost two years on concern global inflation will slow economic growth.``The global outlook is definitely more cloudy with oil prices where they are,'' said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. ``Inflation is a strain on household budgets for everybody.''

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Oil Prices High Oil prices pose a block to economic growth internationally AFP 8 July 8, “Oil trades higher, G8 warns on soaring prices”, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jgfqQWzqqCow69nEcnnUj0LS7RYw Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Tuesday while leaders of the world's rich industrial nations warned of the dangers of soaring oil prices and called for an increase in oil production. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, was 91 cents higher at 142.28 dollars a barrel after slumping 3.92 dollars to close at 141.37 dollars on Monday at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent North Sea crude for August was 1.09 dollars higher at 142.96 dollars from a drop of 2.55 dollars to 141.87 dollars a barrel Monday in London. "It seems to me like oil traders are looking with some interest at the headlines coming out of the G8 meeting," said Dave Ernsberger, Asia director of global energy information provider Platts in Singapore. The New York contract struck a record high of 145.85 dollars and Brent hit an all-time peak of 146.69 dollars last Thursday. Soaring oil and food prices pose a "serious challenge" to stable worldwide economic growth, Group of Eight (G8) leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States warned on Tuesday.

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Oil Prices High The perception of oil prices rising means that crude oil will increase even more Michael Klare, a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Massachusetts, http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080703/REVIEW/547410117/-1/SPORT, July 3 2008 Crude oil rose more than $5 a barrel to a record on concern that Israel may be preparing to attack Iran as a strike in Brazil and renewed militant activity in Nigeria threaten to cut supplies. Oil jumped as high as $147.27 a barrel in New York after the Jerusalem Post said Israeli war planes practiced over Iraq. A Brazilian union said it plans a five-day strike and Nigerian militants pledged to renew attacks on oil facilities. Prices have jumped more than $10 a barrel in the past two days. ``The Iran premium has come into the market over the last two days,'' said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, in Washington. ``Nothing has changed except the perception about whether there will be a deal between the U.S. and Iran. The possibility of a conflict is of tremendous concern to the market.''

Oil prices will inevitably continue to rise because other countries prosper from it Michael Klare, a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Massachusetts, http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080703/REVIEW/547410117/-1/SPORT, July 3 2008 One might naturally assume that life on the summit would be especially comfortable. After all, there is more oil being pumped today than ever before. It is likely, moreover, that we can count on continued high levels of output for another decade or so, probably augmented by additional liquids derived from Canadian tar sands, Rocky Mountain shale, biofuels and other “unconventional” fuel sources. But the price of oil has shattered all previous records and there appear to be no barriers to its continued rise. Other vital products derived from petroleum or reliant on its ready availability – petrochemicals, plastics, pesticides and food – have also risen in cost, adding to our economic woes. What, then, distinguishes this new era from that which preceded it? In the past, global petroleum output largely kept pace with the growth in international demand. This meant that major petroleum consumers – states, corporations, public utilities or individuals – could procure new oil-devouring systems with full confidence that adequate and affordable supplies would be available to fuel them in the years ahead. Car buyers could acquire a giant SUV assuming that gasoline would remain relatively affordable; farmers and truckers could buy powerful, fuel-guzzling vehicles believing that diesel would remain at an equivalent rate. The pre-peak period of growth and abundance also provided considerable elasticity in the face of crisis and turmoil. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and an international embargo was placed on both Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude, Saudi Arabia and other pro-western suppliers were able ramp up production, averting a global energy shortage and the resulting economic meltdown. The Saudis played this critical role on several other occasions, keeping the world well supplied with oil even in the most demanding of times.

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Oil Prices High Oil prices have skyrocketed barrels prove this Michael Klare, a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Massachusetts, http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080703/REVIEW/547410117/-1/SPORT, July 3 2008 But life on the summit will be very different. Although the global energy industry is pumping out more crude than ever, it is no longer capable of increasing output in tandem with ever-rising international demand. According to the latest projections from the US Department of Energy, world petroleum demand will rise from about 86 million barrels per day in 2007 to an estimated 106 million barrels in 2025. Some of these added barrels – perhaps 8 or 9 million per day – will be provided by unconventional sources, but a large share will have to come from conventional petroleum. But a growing number of analysts believe that the industry is now at, or close to, its maximum rate of output. This means that ever-increasing demand will constantly be chasing stagnant supply, thus driving up prices – precisely the situation we see today.

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Fellows

***Readiness/Hegemony* **

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Dollar Decline Now the dollar is declining now.

Muzaffar 2008 (July 1, Chandra, president of the International Movement for a Just World and professor of Global Studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, New Straits Times – Malaysia, Bringing an End to Global Hegemony, lexis) ONE of the most significant trends in the global economy in recent years has been the decline of the US dollar. It is a trend that has far-reaching consequences for all the inhabitants of this planet. It is partly because the US dollar has declined so much in value since 2003 that the price of oil - a lot of the oil trade is denominated in the dollar - has shot up. According to an analyst, "against a basket of currencies, the dollar has fallen by 25 per cent since 2003, and considerably more since its peak in 2001". What this means is that the dollar value of a barrel of oil today is much more than it was five years ago. Of course, there are other reasons why the price of oil is escalating. Since oil is the lifeblood of contemporary civilisation, the steep price hike has impacted upon all areas of life. With the higher cost of living, not only the poor but even those who are at the lower echelons of the middle class are struggling to make ends meet. The increase in food prices on a global scale, for instance, is linked to oil. The rising costs of both food and oil, it has to be reiterated, are directly connected to the decline of the dollar. The adverse consequences of the declining dollar go beyond oil and food. Since the US runs huge trade deficits with countries like China and Japan, the declining dollar will not be in the interest of the latter. Neither will it be in the interest of countries that hold most of their foreign exchange reserves in the dollar. A number of them are already feeling the effects of the diminishing value of their reserves. It is not surprising, therefore, that countries are converting part or whole of their reserves into other currencies, notably the euro. Some oil-producing countries are also switching to other currencies. Expectedly, these moves have further weakened the dollar.

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Weak Dollar Destroys Hegemony a weak dollar destroys hegemony. Muzaffar 2008 (July 1, Chandra, president of the International Movement for a Just World and professor of Global Studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, New Straits Times – Malaysia, Bringing an End to Global Hegemony, lexis) The US is not happy about this, though a weaker dollar may boost its exports and reduce its trade deficit marginally. The US knows that it is the dominant position of the dollar that enables it to exercise global financial and economic hegemony. It is because the dollar is the world's reserve currency that the US has so much political clout in the international arena. This is why the dollar has been described as one of the two principal pillars of US global hegemony, the other being its military power. It explains why the US leadership was so incensed when the late Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, abandoned the dollar and switched to the euro in 2000. He also converted Iraq's $10US billion (RM32.6 billion) reserve fund at the United Nations to euro. Commentators have argued that it was partly because of these decisions that the US and British governments pushed hard for the invasion of Iraq, which at the time of the currency switch was already under tough UN sanctions. Since 2002, Iran, currently the world's second-largest oil exporter, has converted all its foreign exchange reserves to a basket of currencies, excluding the dollar. In the second quarter of this year, it went further and decided to denominate its entire oil trade in currencies other than the dollar. Is it any wonder that Israel, America's closest ally, has become more bellicose in its threat to attack Iran in recent weeks? Of course, as in the case of Iraq, there are also other motives behind attempts by the US, Israel and their other Western allies to bring Iran to its knees. For the US, any move by a major oil exporter to wean itself from the dollar is a direct challenge to its hegemo-nic power. Look at its continuous manoeuvres to undermine Venezuela's democratically elected president, after Hugo Chavez placed a portion of his country's oil trade out of the dollar's orbit. It is not difficult to fathom why the US is so obsessed with perpetuating the oil-dollar nexus. It is partly because most of the oil trade - more than any other trade - is denominated in the dollar that the US currency is able to dominate the world economy. In fact, it was America's agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1974 that the oil trade would be denominated in the dollar which gave a huge lift to the dollar's reign. The US will fight tooth and nail to ensure that that reign continues.

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Heg Bad – Dollar Key dollar decline will end the hegemony that causes war, environmental degradation, terrorism, Muzaffar 2008 (July 1, Chandra, president of the International Movement for a Just World and professor of Global Studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, New Straits Times – Malaysia, Bringing an End to Global Hegemony, lexis) But the supremacy of the dollar must end if US hegemony is to end. US hegemony - like all hegemonies in history - has been a bane upon humanity. It has brought death and destruction to millions through wars and conflicts. It has widened the gap between the "have-a-lot" and the "have-a-little" across the globe. It has reinforced global authoritarianism and stymied the growth of global democracy and international law. It has given rise to antagonism and antipathy between civilisations, especially between the Western and Muslim worlds. It has denied equality and respect to civilisations and cultures outside the West. It has led to global environmental degradation and a global climate crisis. Global hegemony has also provoked a vile and vicious reaction from a fringe within the Muslim world in the form of global terror. This is why citizen groups in both the Global South and the Global North should campaign with greater vigour to bring global hegemony to an end by weakening the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. More oil-producing countries should be persuaded to switch from the dollar to other currencies. In international trade, countries should shift to other currencies which are more conducive to their short- and long-term interests. If foreign reserves are still in dollars, a concerted endeavour should be made to convert them into other currencies which will at least protect their value.

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Other Dollar Leaders Now other nations and groups are taking up dollar hegemony now. Muzaffar 2008 (July 1, Chandra, president of the International Movement for a Just World and professor of Global Studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, New Straits Times – Malaysia, Bringing an End to Global Hegemony, lexis)

Citizen groups should also encourage their governments and corporations to accelerate regional trade and investment that can be conducted in their own currencies. Some Latin American states, such as Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia, are showing greater enthusiasm for regional cooperation, with the ultimate goal of ensuring that their continent is liberated once and for all from US dominance and control. Cuba and Venezuela have even stepped up barter trade; the former's health expertise in exchange for the latter's oil, which minimises altogether the role of money. Intra-Asean (Association of South East Asian Nations) trade and investment have also increased significantly in recent years. With the emergence of China and India as important economic players, Asean and other states in Asia should consider using one of the major Asian currencies for regional trade and not continue to depend on the US dollar. Quite apart from all these efforts, citizen groups should demand comprehensive reform of the international financial system. This is the right time to make this demand. They should make it abundantly clear to all and sundry that the dollar can no longer serve as the world's reserve currency. It has to be replaced.

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Readiness Low top military officials conclude that readiness is low now. Bruno 2008 (Michael, April 15, Aviation Week’s Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, U.S. land forces? readiness draws increasing congressional concern)

Growing concerns with the U.S. having enough Army and Marine Corps land forces to react to potential unforeseen crises overseas are drawing attention on Capitol Hill. The concerns come as lawmakers craft fiscal 2009 defense bills and eye post-Bush administration budgetmaking, keeping in mind the looming potential for a significant number of troops operating in Iraq for years to come and the strain that deployments so far have placed on the volunteer U.S. military. ?We have had 12 military contingencies in the last 31 years, some of them major and most of them unexpected,? House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) said at a recent hearing. ?We must have a trained and properly equipped force ready to handle whatever comes. But my strong concern is that our readiness shortfalls and the limitations on our ability to deploy trained and ready ground forces have reached a point where these services would have a very steep uphill climb with increased casualties to respond effectively to an emerging contingency,? Skelton said. Skelton made the remarks at an April 9 hearing with the four-star vice chiefs of the Army and Marines, both of whom admitted that they were not satisfied with their respective service?s so-called strategic depth to respond to crisis scenarios like the post-9/11 invasion of Afghanistan. Army Gen. Richard Cody testified that the Army remains ?out of balance,? repeating what has become a common official Army phrase referring to the need to recruit, station, train and equip soldiers for more than just counterinsurgency operations (Aerospace DAILY, Jan. 17). ?The current demand for our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan exceeds the sustainable supply and limits our ability to provide ready forces for other contingencies,? Cody said. ?Overall, our readiness is being consumed as fast as we build it. If unaddressed, this lack of balance poses a significant risk to the all-volunteer force and degrades the Army?s ability to make a timely response to other contingencies,? the Army vice chief said. Magnus His Marine counterpart, Gen. Robert Magnus, echoed the sentiment, particularly about compressed at-home, or ?dwell,? time that Marines now face between combat rotations. ?This short dwell time and heavy training focus on counterinsurgency limit the ability to develop and maintain proficiency in core competencies such as combined arms and amphibious operations,? he testified. Additionally, Magnus said, the need for units such as artillery, mechanized maneuver and air defense units to train and conduct ?in-lieu-of? missions (such as security, military policing, and civil affairs) degrades the readiness of those units to conduct their regular, primary mission. ?While the result is a Marine Corps well trained for ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, there is significant risk in our degraded ability to support other operations, including major combat operations

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where those primary-mission, full-spectrum capabilities would be required,? said the Corps? assistant commandant.

Hegemony Low us military power and hegemony is on the decline. Steketee 2008 (May 27, Mike, National Affairs Editor, The Australian, US will be forced to soften: Fukuyama)

THE US can no longer assume it has hegemony over world affairs and will have to change its approach dramatically to emphasise soft power, diplomacy and regional security co-operation, according to American scholar Francis Fukuyama. Best known for his 1992 book The End of History and the Last Man about the triumph of liberal democracy following the Cold War, he said in an interview with The Australian the US was at an important inflection point. ``It is not American decline so much as the rise of India, China and the Gulf as other important sources of power,'' he said. ``The US, despite its predominant position, is not going to be able to restructure the world as it chooses. Intervening militarily to stop (weapons) proliferation or deal with terrorism has been pretty widely discredited and pretty widely seen as counter-productive.''

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Hegemony Low u.s. hegemony is declining, causing oil sources to move away from the u.s. – a shift to alternative energy is key to national security. Di Stefano 2008 (7/11, Opinion: Getting Serious About Energy Independence, Theodore F., founder and managing partner at Capital Source Partners, E-Commerce Times, http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/Getting-Serious-About-Energy-Independence-63695.html?welcome=1215786040)

Recently, President Bush made a trip to the Middle East and met with Saudi officials, asking them to increase production in order to reduce the pressure on oil prices. Unfortunately, his request went unheeded. The simple reason is that the Saudis are no longer as dependent on the U.S. for their oil sales. They have Europe, China, India and Asia all competing with us to consume a goodly quantity of oil. It's hard for us Americans to understand that we no longer have the hegemony -- the clout -- that we once had throughout the world. This means that we must absolutely readjust our energy goals to take this loss of clout into effect. Therefore, the need for us to take alternative energy sources more seriously is absolutely critical, if for no other reason than our national security .

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Global Warming Kills Readiness global warming will sap america’s military readiness. Shachtman 2008 (June 25, Noah, Climate Change May Sap Military, Intel Chief Says,

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/06/we-judge-global.html)

One of the country's top spies came to Capitol Hill today, to warn Congress that global climate change could sap the country's military forces -- while fueling new conflicts around the world. But he warned that responding to global warming might be even more costly than the problem itself. "As climate changes spur more humanitarian emergencies... [t]he United States, in particular will be called upon to respond," National Intelligence Council chairman Thomas Fingar told a joint session of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and the Intelligence Community Management Subcommittee. And those demands "may significantly tax US military... readiness." "Climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security interests over the next 20 years," Fingar noted, as he presented an open summary of a classified National Intelligence Assessment on the effects of global warming. But the biggest impact is likely to be overseas, where "climate change... will worsen existing problems — such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. [That] could threaten domestic stability in some states, potentially contributing to intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict, particularly over access to increasingly scarce water resources." America will almost invariably have to cope with the consequences. But the U.S. will also have to deal with the impact of global warming at home, Fingar said. On the homefront, responding to thawing in and around Alaska, water shortages in the Southwest, and storm surges on the East and Gulf Coasts will involve costly repairs, upgrades, and modifications. A warming climate also will encourage wildfires throughout the longer summers... [A]nnual costs from severe weather in damage to property and loss of economic productivity for the United States to be in the tens of billions of dollars... A number of active coastal military installations in the continental United States are at a significant and increasing risk of damage, as a function of flooding from worsened storm surges in the near-term. In addition, two dozen nuclear facilities and numerous refineries along US coastlines are at risk and may be severely impacted by storms. And while the United States copes with all of that, the country "will need to anticipate and plan for growing immigration pressures. Although sea level rise is probably a slow and long-term development, extreme weather events and growing evidence of inundation will motivate many to move sooner rather than later." Fingar warned, however, that the cure for global warming might be worse than the proverbial disease. "Government, business, and public efforts to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change — from policies to reduce greenhouse gasses to plans to reduce exposure to climate change or capitalize on potential impacts — may affect US national security interests even more than the physical impacts of climate change itself," he said.

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Readiness Decline Now growth without budget increases is hurting military readiness. Chavanne 2008 (April 16, Defense Budget Dynamics Threaten Readiness, AIA says, Aviation Week’s Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, Bettina H., lexis)

Blakey cited ?relentless growth? in operations and maintenance costs, ?spiking? personnel costs and simultaneous needs for reset and recapitalization as the three primary reasons the report is timely. ?We must raise the topline numbers in our defense budget or else risk a hollow force,? she said. AIA proposes reaching a defense spending level of $120 billion to $150 billion per year to modernize the current force. The report also cites five key points to developing a long-range strategy to modernize the military: ? Sustain a national consensus to adequately fund national defense capability and readiness as a priority, ? Acknowledge that defense modernization is long overdue, ? Address the growing bow wave of modernization requirements in military aerospace, ? Foster innovation and stability in DOD investment planning, ? And support the concept of a floor for defense spending ? in this case 4 percent of the gross domestic product. This summer, a follow-up report by AIA will take a more system-intensive approach, detailing specific programs? capabilities. ?It will hopefully influence debate prior to the election,? Blakey said.

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Heg Decline Inevitable united states hegemony is inevitably declining. Gomez 2008 (7/10, Carlos Arturo Serrano, Opinion: China as the next superpower should not repeat US mistakes, Falling Eagle, Rising Dragon, http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=383065&rel_no=1&back_url=)

Gone is the symbolic importance of the United States. After having fulfilled its self-imposed historical mission of keeping Communism in check, the US has clearly lost its sense of purpose. It still leads the path in a number of technological fields, and may do so for a few decades more, but it will be its only lasting legacy. We have felt the change. We have watched it happen. At the end of President George W. Bush's second term, the American way no longer stands for anything worthy of respect. Whoever is elected as his successor will have only the choice of making it easier or harder to endure. Either the policies of predation finish the task of ruining the American economy, of destabilizing the nuclear balance of power, of worsening the oil crisis by gulping down the last remaining drop and of ensuring that every citizen of the Third World has a good reason for hating the US, or an honest effort of conciliation and compromise may attempt to restore whatever good will it can still inspire and harness support to help clean the mess it has made. The American people are known to be intelligent enough to find their way out of overwhelming crises, however much their leaders work to keep the course of collision unaltered. It is in their hands now to decide whether the unavoidable transition will at least go smoothly. The King Is Dead, Long Live the King Be it through a catastrophic crumbling down or a gracious admission of failure, the era of American hegemony is doomed. The two decades of unipolarity since Gorbachev have sufficed for the emergence of multiple centers of independent power. Latin America is experimenting with its newfound autonomy. Europe is struggling to find its way. Russia finally starts to recover from its slumber and forces are shifting positions in the Arab world. Meanwhile, behind the rigid walls of Party line, China breathes, eats, and grows. With the color of the cat no longer being important, China is building its prosperity with a bizarre combination of economic models. It is hypocritical to criticize the voracity with which the machinery of the system consumes resources (both material and human), especially after all that Dickens and Thoreau had to say about their own countries. The Chinese are good learners, and it seems they have been studying our history with dedication. While we are right to worry about ecological footprints and worker rights, we should first admit that the West is not innocent on those accounts. China is dutifully following the textbook steps toward imperialism: fast industrialization, massive consumption, commercial expansion, cultural syncretism. However, if they have indeed studied the proceedings of previous empires, there are certain steps it would be wiser not to follow.

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Hege Decline Inevitable American has lost its moral beacon, signaling the decline of hegemony Gomez 2008 (7/10, Carlos Arturo Serrano, Opinion: China as the next superpower should not repeat US mistakes, Falling Eagle, Rising Dragon, http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=383065&rel_no=1&back_url=)

The current problem with the US is that it demands the world to treat it as a paragon of virtues it no longer embodies. The vigor and moral authority with which it had entered the 20th century were drained in the course of the Cold War, and from it emerged an empty shell, devoid of the guiding principles that had inspired the free world. Instead, what we see now is a ruptured society, disappointed in itself, angry at itself and absurdly, incurably scared. The Cold War was won, but the heart of a nation was consumed in the process. China must employ its resources intelligently if it does not want to be burned up by its own explosive development. Its population alone is quite difficult to manage already. Though a constant supply of cheap workforce is useful, the practical problems involved in keeping a good standard of life across a vast and varied geography may prove a serious challenge to overcome. Love Thy Neighbor Much of the success of a civilization depends on its relationship with the cultures that surround it. The strength that comes from a shared history can never be overestimated. In fact, unresolved rivalries have often been to blame for the deterioration of empires. The enemies of Rome attacked out of greed, but also out of resentment. The English managed to absorb the Scots and the Irish, but not on good terms, and their disagreements took centuries to be resolved. The Americans cannot be said to be good neighbors, either. The millions of Mexicans, Native Americans and African Americans who were sacrificed on the altar of progress still bear loud testimony.

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Hege Decline Inevitable overstretch and resentment make hegemony decline inevitable. Gomez 2008 (7/10, Carlos Arturo Serrano, Opinion: China as the next superpower should not repeat US mistakes, Falling Eagle, Rising Dragon, http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=383065&rel_no=1&back_url=)

A Bad Influence The US has allowed itself to get away with outrageous actions that would not be tolerated if committed by any other country. Their use of commercial pressure backed by a massive military has given them a position of dominance increasingly harder to sustain and justify. This is a dangerous strategy. It builds power as it makes enemies. The Chinese suffered from that same strategy when the British imposed the opium trade on them, with painful consequences. Also, their neighboring nations were either occupied or colonized in succession when the Far East was deemed fair game for European imperialism. If China manages to avoid the hypocritical pattern of an empire that denies other peoples the freedom it demands for itself (as, for example, Bush's America does), it may gain several strengths that oppressors desire, but cannot get: respect, loyalty, trust and good will. China must be careful to deserve each one of these. One thing, however, is true of all empires in all places and times: they fall. The time of China has begun, but it will end. There is no escape from that. If the Chinese have studied our history with the attention it deserves, they shall also be prepared to step down when the time arrives.

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Military Power Sustainable, Economic Power Not though u.s. military power is sustainable, it’s economic hegemony will decline. Leverett and Leverett 2008 (June 16, Flynt and Hillary Mann, Flynt is former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security council and senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative and Hillary Mann is former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council and chief executive officer of Stratega a political risk consultancy, US Economic Decline Top Issue, The National,

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART) WASHINGTON // The most important long-term strategic challenge facing the Gulf Cooperation Council is not the threat of Islamic extremism or the rise of Iran – it is the continuing economic decline of the United States. Ever since 1980, when Jimmy Carter, then president, first publicly committed the United States to use military force to defend the free flow of oil from the Middle East, the United States has been the region’s unquestioned hegemon. And ever since the GCC was formed in 1981, its members have relied on the United States as the ultimate guarantor of their security. To support the US security umbrella, GCC states have extended various types of co-operation to the United States – such as basing rights, pre-positioning of equipment and making their own militaries more “interoperable” with US forces. In addition, GCC states have tied their economies to the United States – through petrodollar recycling, importing US capital goods, pricing international oil sales in dollars and pegging their own national currencies to the greenback. Looking ahead, the United States will remain the Middle East’s military hegemon for years to come, with a unique ability to project substantial military power into the Gulf for at least the next quarter of a century. The United States economic hegemony, however, is in a serious and continuing decline, as the country continues its run as the world’s leading debtor and the dollar reaches historic lows against other major currencies. In recent years, GCC states have provided vital financial and monetary support for America’s increasingly strained international economic position. But the costs of extending such support to the US economy are steadily rising – a reality reflected in recent debates about the wisdom of the GCC states’ continuing peg of their national currencies to a falling dollar. Also, rising economic powers in Asia are emerging as increasingly important trade and investment partners for the GCC, as the United States becomes more marginal to the region’s economic future.

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Economic Hegemony Declining the united states’ strategic blunders have overstretched its forces, destroying its economic hegemony. Leverett and Leverett 2008 (June 16, Flynt and Hillary Mann, Flynt is former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security council and senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative and Hillary Mann is former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council and chief executive officer of Stratega a political risk consultancy, US Economic Decline Top Issue, The National,

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART) All of this is occurring as a series of strategic blunders by the United States – invasion and occupation of Iraq and feckless stewardship of the Arab-Israeli peace process, first among them – are raising doubts in GCC leaders’ minds about the competence with which the United States exercises its military and diplomatic hegemony in the region. Under these conditions, Gulf Arab leaderships will be challenged to maintain effective security co-operation with Washington while also managing more diversified foreign policy agendas and preserving conditions for economic growth at home.

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Economic Hegemony Declining economic hegemony is declining – high energy prices, redistribution of wealth, and loss of wealth are all factors. Leverett and Leverett 2008 (June 16, Flynt and Hillary Mann, Flynt is former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security council and senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative and Hillary Mann is former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council and chief executive officer of Stratega a political risk consultancy, US Economic Decline Top Issue, The National,

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART) Since the turn of the millennium, three critical developments have overlapped, almost as a “perfect storm”, to put the United States’ continued international economic leadership in serious jeopardy. First, fundamental shifts in international energy markets have driven energy prices dramatically higher since 2002. While downwards fluctuations in price are inevitable in a volatile market, energy prices will continue to be much higher on average in coming years than in the 20th century’s last decade and a half. Second, the sustained increase in energy prices is redistributing wealth across the world. The winners in this process, measured by their rising current account surpluses, are major oil exporters – primarily in the GCC and Russia – and the major industrial exporters (ie, China, Japan and Germany, the countries with the three largest current account surpluses in the world) that serve them. The principal loser, of course, is the United States, whose international financial position has deteriorated substantially since 2001. Third, the transfer of wealth from the United States and other energy importers to energy exporters and a small number of manufacturers, such as China, is the main impetus for ballooning global economic imbalances. And, as China and other Asian manufacturers, along with energy exporters in the GCC and Russia, become the dominant capital providers funding these imbalances, foreign government agencies – central banks and, more recently, sovereign wealth funds – have surpassed private purchasers of US assets as the most important sources of financing for the current US account deficit. This perfect storm is putting unprecedented strain on the dollar’s international standing. It also makes the sustainability of global economic imbalances a hot topic of debate among economists and financial market players around the world. The policy decisions by GCC states will be critical to determining how this debate ultimately plays out. In the aggregate, the GCC is now almost as important to financing America’s current account deficit as China. On a per-capita basis or as a percentage of gross domestic product, the GCC’s aggregate current account surplus is larger than China’s.

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Dollar Stable, but Could Collapse (Uniqueness and Impact) the dollar is stable now due to ties with saudi arabia, but could easily collapse in the future. Leverett and Leverett 2008 (June 16, Flynt and Hillary Mann, Flynt is former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security council and senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative and Hillary Mann is former director of Gulf affairs at the National Security Council and chief executive officer of Stratega a political risk consultancy, US Economic Decline Top Issue, The National,

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080615/FOREIGN/441776822/-1/ART) Although the GCC states are beginning to diversify their reserve assets, a wholesale move by the GCC away from the dollar as the basis for currency pegs and the transactional currency for international oil trading seems unlikely for now. Saudi Arabia is staunchly opposed to these steps, on what Saudi officials candidly describe as “strategic” rather than economic grounds. Other GCC states are constrained to follow the Saudi lead to avoid damaging prospects on currency pegs for eventual monetary union. Even Kuwait, which shifted the peg for its dinar last year to a “basket” of currencies, gives the dollar disproportionate weight in that basket. And the kingdom carries sufficient weight within Opec to block precipitous shifts in the currency regime for international oil trading. But, over time, the costs to GCC states of providing continued financial and monetary support for the US economy will grow. And that will pose hard economic and strategic choices for Gulf Arab leaderships. During his recent trip to the Middle East, Henry Paulson, the US treasury secretary, tried to project a welcoming US posture towards financial flows from the GCC. He also went beyond conventional “strong dollar” rhetoric, pledging his determination to keep the dollar as the world’s leading reserve asset. Mr Paulson’s observations notwithstanding, why should anyone believe that the current Bush administration, in its last months, or the next US administration will seriously pursue policies to defend the dollar’s value, such as balancing budgets and raising interest rates? The political debate over economic policy in the United States is headed in precisely the opposite direction.

Under such circumstances, how high a price are Gulf Arab states willing to pay to prop up a “deadbeat” United States, which may well choose to let dollar depreciation and inflation write down significant parts of its debt to the GCC and other international creditors? On the strategic front, are GCC states prepared to use their financial support for the United States to influence the ways in which Washington exercises its military hegemony in the region? In private, Gulf Arab officials and elites complain about the consequences of US strategic initiatives in recent years, voicing concerns that US foreign policy may be creating more numerous and potent threats to the security of GCC states than those against which the US military protects them. But, for all that GCC states complain about the invasion and occupation of Iraq, for example, they have effectively financed the whole operation by continuing to purchase US treasury securities and other dollardenominated reserve assets. Will GCC states be so accommodating again – if, say, the United States initiated a military confrontation with Iran? The next US president, whether John McCain or Barack Obama, will be challenged to put US policy in the Middle East on a course more productive for the interests of US allies in the region as well as the interests of the United States. For their part, GCC states will be challenged to manage their relations with the United States in ways that increase the chances Washington will actually find that more productive course. And that will mean being frank with US partners about what Gulf Arab states need from their alliances with the United States, what they are prepared to put on the table to make strategic cooperation more effective, and – just as importantly – what they are not prepared to pay for.

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***Brazil/Venezuela* **

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Brazil Relations Low US-Brazil relations degrading now- Corn Ethanol to blame Maggie Airriess, COHA Research Associate, July 10th 2008, Biofuels and the Global Food Crisis- Who is to Blame?, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/2008/07/biofuels-and-the-global-food-crisis-who-is-to-blame/ U.S.-Brazil tension, a relatively recent development, resurfaced during the UN World Food Summit in Rome on June 3-5, encouraging the booming Brazilian sugar-based ethanol market to increase its new development projects. This rift represents a de facto counter move against the far less-efficient U.S. model predicated on corn-based ethanol production. Following the summit, Brazilian officials began a weeklong tour, stopping in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, during which they discussed a set of commercial agreements that will boost multilateral cooperation with several African countries. The trade agreements, projected to begin in 2009, include an expansion in ethanol investment, urbanism, air and sea transport, and cooperation in professional training between the two regions.

Brazil-Venezuela Relations on the Rise Now Simon Romero and Alexei Barrionuevo, the N ew York Times, Quietly Brazil Eclipses an Ally, July 7, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/world/americas/07brazil.html?ref=americas President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil clasped hands here at a summit meeting late last month, as employees of Venezuela’s state oil company raised their fists and shouted Cuban-inspired socialist slogans before the cameras. It was an image of solidarity that might once have alarmed Washington, which has seen the United States’ standing steadily eroded by a shift toward left-leaning, populist leaders across the region in the last decade. Venezuela shifting to China for sugar-ethanol trade relations Infro-Prod Middle East, July 9th 2008, China Wants Brazilian Technology in Ethanol, iStockAnalyst, http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2383930&title=China_Wants_Brazilian.html This week, Brazilian government officials and businessmen are in China exchanging information, with the aim of opening up more investment opportunities in different sectors. One of them is biofuels. The Chinese have long been interested in how Brazil manufactures and uses alcohol, which is obtained from sugarcane. Even though the Chinese government is not interested in producing alcohol from sugarcane, the country wants to know how Brazil produces, stores and transports alcohol. The trade mission to China is going to visit the cities of Macao, Hong Kong and Beijing, where the seminar "Investment opportunities in Brazil" will be held. The trip is headed by the Foreign Trade secretary at the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (Mapa), Welber Barral, and aims to attract further investment from China into the country. Interest in a dialogue concerning biofuels came from the Chinese, according to information supplied by the coordination of the sugar and alcohol sector of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. China produces 100 million tonnes of sugarcane per year, destined for sugar manufacturing. Brazil produces 500 million tonnes of sugarcane a year, 85% of which concentrates in the Centre-South region of the country and 15% in the North-Northeast. There once was an initiative for producing alcohol from maize, however the Chinese government backed down after realizing that, in this case, there would be competition with the animal husbandry sector. In a country with a population of 1.2 billion, it would not be strategic to turn maize production to fuel manufacturing, because the priority is large-scale food production. Maize produced in China is preferably used to feed the cattle

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herd. In conversations with technicians at the Mapa, the Chinese expressed their intention of extracting alcohol from cassava, potato and sweet sorghum, a grain with high sucrose content.

Brazil Relations High US-Brazil trade relations high now because of Air Transport deal Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, June 27, 2008, United States and Brazil Agree to Expand Air Services, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2008/jun/106335.htm The United States and Brazil have reached agreement on a package of significant liberalization measures in our air transportation relations, which will strengthen and expand our already strong trade and tourism links with this important Latin American partner. The agreement will provide for a nearly 50 percent increase in passenger flights between the two countries and eliminate a number of restrictions on U.S.-Brazil air service. The agreement was initialed on June 26, after three days of negotiations in Washington between a Brazilian delegation, led by Ronaldo Seroa da Motta, Director of the National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil, and a U.S. delegation, led by the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Economic, Energy and Business Affairs, which included officials from the U.S. Department of Transportation and the U.S. Department of Commerce. US-Brazil cooperating on lots of issues now Carin Zissis, July 10, 2008, The Impact of Brazil on the Global Scenario, Americas Society, http://www.ascoa.org/article.php?id=1128, ambassador Clifford Sobel on U.S.-Brazilian Partnerships Brazil and the United States serve as “anchors of the Western Hemisphere” because of their sizes and economies, remarked U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Clifford Sobel, who highlighted the importance of U.S.-Brazilian partnerships in the fields of energy, security, and the CEO forum that brings together ten executives from each country. In terms of biofuels, he stated that the countries—the world’s primary ethanol producers—serve as natural partners. He recognized the global public debate over biofuel production set off by the rising cost of food, but stressed the importance of finding solutions and looking head to promote renewable and environmentally friendly biofuels. Turning to the issue of security, Sobel sought to put to rest concerns over U.S. plans to reactivate its Fourth Fleet in Latin American waters. “We should have the capacity to handle natural disasters” in the region efficiently, stressed the ambassador, noting that the purpose of the fleet consists of peace, counternarcotics, and disaster response missions. On the third point, Sobel outlined the CEO forum as an initiative that seeks to strengthen competitiveness in each country. Finally, Sobel praised a Brazilian proposal to extend visas for U.S. citizens from five to 10 years, saying the United States will reciprocate should the measure gain approval.

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Brazil Countering Venezuela Now Brazil countering Chavez’s influence now Simon Romero and Alexei Barrionuevo, the N ew York Times, Quietly Brazil Eclipses an Ally, July 7, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/world/americas-/07brazil.html?ref=americas Today the two leaders, often partners but sometimes rivals, offer starkly different paths toward development, and it is Brazil’s milder and more pragmatic approach that appears ascendant. Amid the decline of American influence in the region, the Brazilian president is discreetly outflanking Mr. Chávez at almost every turn in the struggle for leadership in South America. Mr. Chávez has been nationalizing foreign companies and trying to assemble an anti-American bloc of nations. His regional credentials suffered last week, though, when his ideological rival, President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia, organized a dramatic rescue of 15 hostages held in the jungle by Colombian rebels. Mr. da Silva has diversified Brazil’s already strong industrial base and created an ample political coalition with almost a dozen neighbors. Huge recent oil discoveries in Brazilian waters have allowed him to blunt Venezuela’s efforts to use its oil largess to win influence. Venezuela’s economy has shown signs of stumbling, while its dependence on trade with Brazil has intensified. The key to Brazil’s success has been a lucky confluence of global economic trends, like rising demand for commodities like soybeans and sugar-based ethanol, but also the quiet stewardship of Mr. da Silva, a former auto plant worker. He has raised Brazil’s profile across the region in part by adopting a less confrontational approach to Mr. Chávez than that of the United States.

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Venezuela Relations Low US-Venezuela Relations low and dropping- Chavez threatening oil embargo Marin Katusa, July 10 2008, Securing the Insecure: U.S. Oil Imports, Resource Investor, http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=44271 This trend is evident in Venezuela, a more mature oil-producing country, which, under the leadership of Hugo Chavez, has already begun to reduce exports to the United States.The Exxon Mobil suit against Venezuela is the latest, but far from the last jab in the sparring going onbetween America and Venezuela. The bad blood, combined with increased international competition for Venezuela's oil increases the possibility of a Venezuelan oil embargo on exports to the United States. US portraying Chavez as rebel supporter

Mark Weisbrot, Alternet.com, July 11, 2008, Chavez's Call for FARC Disarmament Takes Washington By Surprise, http://www.alternet.org/columnists/story/87821/?ses =309d41940b2743eaca8bf9d713988da2 The same has been true for Hugo Chavez in the Colombian conflict. This is how Chavez's role has been seen by the families of the FARC's hostages (including U.S. military contractors), Colombian anti-violence activists, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia and almost every other state in the region, and also in Europe. None of these people (including FARC kidnapping victims) or governments are admirers of the FARC. They have strongly supported Chavez's efforts, including but not limited to his success this year in gaining freedom for six hostages that were held by the FARC. But for Washington and its right-wing allies in Colombia, Chavez and the FARC have become comrades in arms. The media has honed in on about two or three positive statements uttered by Chavez about the FARC (out of thousands of hours of his speeches) to describe Chavez as a "staunch FARC supporter" (Time Magazine June 9). On June 10, the Associated Press reported, falsely, that Chavez had five months ago been "urging world leaders to back their [the FARC's] armed struggle." US name calling hurting Venezuelan relations now

Taipei Times, June 22 2008, US Hezbollah charge is a pretext, Chavez says, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2008/06/22/2003415433 Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that the US is trying to bring him before an international court. Chavez says the US is using accusations that the Venezuelan government is supporting the Lebanese group Hezbollah to “see if the world will make a move” against him. The US, which has worsening ties with Chavez, said on Wednesday it was freezing the assets of two Venezuelans, including a diplomat, it linked to Hezbollah and accused Venezuela’s government of protecting the two men. “The United States [is] accusing our government, Venezuela, me of helping Lebanese movements -- in the Middle East. They are trying to take me to international court to see if the world will go along with the game against us,” Chavez said at a political rally in his first comments on the charge. “I think it will simply turn out badly for them if they play that kind of game,” he said. Chavez has increasingly sparred with Washington this year over accusations of his ties to groups the US calls terrorists.

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US sentiments towards Venezuela have soured relations

Taipei Times, June 22 2008, US Hezbollah charge is a pretext, Chavez says, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2008/06/22/2003415433 US Congressmen have debated blacklisting Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism, even though the OPEC nation is one of the US’ biggest oil suppliers. US officials have hardened their stance against Chavez since Colombia said in March it found FARC rebel computers showing he supported the group. Colombia has threatened to take Chavez to international court, accusing him of backing the FARC, which is fighting to topple the South American nation’s government. The Venezuelan leader denies he supports a group that both his neighbor and the US consider terrorists. The US has at times identified the Lebanese Muslim community on Venezuela’s Caribbean island of Margarita as a threat, saying funds were raised there for the Shi’ite Muslim Hezbollah group. The US considers Hezbollah a terrorist group. Chavez, who wants to build an anti-US alliance, frequently accuses Washington of seeking to damage his image and says the superpower’s strategy is to force him from power. The US dismisses the charge.

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Venezuela Relations High Venezuela friendly towards US- Chavez calling for renewed talks James Suggett, July 8th 2008, Venezuela Analysis, Chavez Calls for Renewal of U.S.- Venezuela Dialogue, http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/3627 While celebrating Venezuela’s Independence day on Saturday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez expressed his desire to renew anti-drug collaboration and re-open dialogue with the United States. Chávez also guaranteed that his administration has no desire for war. In a brief conversation with the U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, Patrick Duddy, Chávez recalled how he had met several times in the presidential palace with John Maisto, the U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela from 1997-2000. “We ate breakfast, we talked. We must return to that situation,” Chávez told Duddy, according to Venezuelan newspapers.

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***Russia* **

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Shim Thought 3 Cards = 15 RUSSIAN ECONOMY HIGH NOW – DRIVEN BY HIGH OIL PRICES Lewis 7/11 (Christina, Wall Street Journal Reporter, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121572293118743655html?)

“From

Russia

–

With

Cash”

2K8,

While the number of Russians with the means to buy trophy homes is relatively small, they represent an important but littleknown demographic group for U.S. real estate. Several years ago, the weakening dollar began to draw more overseas buyers but Russians were scarce. Now, Russia's economy is booming amid soaring energy prices. Moscow real estate is among the world's costliest, making property elsewhere a relative bargain.

RUSSIA IS RIDING THE OIL WAVE NOW – HIGH PRICES HAVE STIMULATED AN ECONOMIC BOOM Cooper 7/11 (Peter, Reporter for Business 24/7, 2K8, “Russian Economy Flourishes like UAE’s, http://www.business247.ae/Articles/2008/7/Pages-/RussianeconomyflourisheslikeUAE’s.aspx) With oil prices remaining high, Russia is enjoying a similar economic boom to the Emirates, and has amassed $500 billion (Dh1.83trn) in foreign currency reserves. GDP has been rising sharply at around seven per cent per annum for the past seven years. And as emerging stock markets like China and India have sold down rapidly since last October, 48 and 35 per cent respectively, the Russian bourse hovers near an all-time high.Last week came the news that Dubai World and OAO Roskommunenergo are to bid $5.3bn for Russia’s biggest wholesale power producer before price caps end in 2011. This will be the first Russian Energy investment by a GCC oil state, and part of a $34bn sale of electricity generation and distribution assets since 2006

RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC BOOM IS TENUOUS – IT DEPENDS ON THE TUMULTUOUS NATURE OF THE OIL MARKET Cooper 7/11 (Peter, Reporter for Business 24/7, 2K8, “Russian Economy Flourishes like UAE’s, http://www.business247.ae/Articles/2008/7/Pages-/RussianeconomyflourisheslikeUAE’s.aspx) Zhukov noted that Russia has maintained a rather high level of economic growth "despite the continuing financial crisis throughout the world," although there have nevertheless been some negative consequences. As an example, he cited inflation, which was already up to 9% for the year on July 7, or three percentage points higher than in the same period of last year. He also said the government has set the goal of "using the favorable situation on the global energy market to switch the Russian economy to an innovative development model, raise the competitiveness of Russian business, retain a high level of investment, carry out several large infrastructural projects, steadily develop the banking system and increase its contribution to economic growth." The innovative development model will make it possible to maintain average GDP growth rates at 6.5% per year for the period until 2020 even if oil prices fall, he said. Russia's appeal to foreign investors also continues to grow, he said. Foreign investment in Russia totaled about $201 billion in 2007, including foreign direct investment of $52 billion. The inflow of foreign direct investment to the non-financial sector slowed down in the second quarter of 2008 and totaled $12.5 billion compared to $18.1 billion in the first quarter. At the same time, he said net capital inflow picked up again in June and totaled $10.6 billion, bringing net capital inflow to about $12 billion for the first half of 2008.

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