Trading I_introduction_grainmarketing.pdf

GrainCorp Operations Ltd.

Trading I: Introduction to Grain Marketing GrainCorp Grain Marketing, GrainCorp Learning & Development

2010

Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

GrainCorp Learning & Development

Introduction to Grain Marketing Learner Guide

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Table of Contents GrainCorp Operations Ltd. ..................................................................................................... 1 Introduction to Grain Marketing ....................................................................................... 1 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. 3 Objectives & Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5 Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 5 What is grain marketing? ................................................................................................. 5 Who is this learning event for? ......................................................................................... 5 Prerequisite Knowledge .................................................................................................. 6 Where does this learning event fit in? ............................................................................... 6 Organisation & Objectives ...................................................................................................... 7 Organisational Structure ..................................................................................................... 7 Production & Statistics ....................................................................................................... 8 Major Customers ................................................................................................................ 8 Grain Supply Chain ................................................................................................................ 9 The Supply Chain ............................................................................................................... 9 Price Basing Point .............................................................................................................. 9 International Price Discovery ............................................................................................. 10 Local Price Discovery ....................................................................................................... 11 Commodity Price vs. Freight Cost ..................................................................................... 11 Supply & Demand ............................................................................................................ 12 Risk ..................................................................................................................................... 13 What is a Hedge? ......................................................................................................... 13 Risk Management ............................................................................................................ 13 Hedging & Futures ........................................................................................................ 13 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 14 15/05/2012C:\Documents

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Glossary (to be modified) ...................................................................................................... 15 A ...................................................................................................................................... 15 B...................................................................................................................................... 15 C ..................................................................................................................................... 16 D ..................................................................................................................................... 17 E ...................................................................................................................................... 18 F ...................................................................................................................................... 18 L ...................................................................................................................................... 18 M ..................................................................................................................................... 19 N ..................................................................................................................................... 19 O ..................................................................................................................................... 20 P ...................................................................................................................................... 20 R...................................................................................................................................... 20 S ...................................................................................................................................... 20 T ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 22 Contract Terms & Conditions ............................................................................................ 22

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Objectives & Introduction Objectives After completing this learning event, you should be able to; Describe the GrainCorp grain marketing system and its components Discuss the GrainCorp business units that are involved in grain marketing and the function that each unit performs Understand fundamental commodity market concepts and how these relate to marketing grain

Introduction What is grain marketing? Grain Marketing refers to the processes and activities involved in the purchase of grain from growers, and the sale of that grain to buyers both domestic and international. These activities and processes include, but are not limited to; Attraction of grain crops from growers Storage and management of grain inventories Decisions about when and how much grain to sell Contracting & delivery alternatives Utilising risk management tools such as futures

Who is this learning event for? This learning event is for two main audiences; GrainCorp colleagues who require an introduction to the basic concepts of grain marketing and trading. Managers including Grain Services Managers (GSM) and trading team personnel needing the prerequisite knowledge required before attempting Trading II: Grain Marketing for Managers, and subsequent courses.

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Prerequisite Knowledge Before attempting this learning event, you should have completed the following events; There are no pre-requisite learning events required to attempt this activity.

Where does this learning event fit in? The Trading I: Introduction to Grain Marketing learning event is the first in the curriculum of learning events discussing grain marketing and the pre-requisite to Trading II: Grain Marketing for Managers. This curriculum includes three advanced learning events for trading personnel. The complete curriculum is illustrated below;

Figure 1: Learning & Development Trading Course Curriculum

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Organisation & Objectives Organisational Structure The GrainCorp grain marketing structure is illustrated in the following diagram:

The GrainCorp Grain Marketing team has two main objectives to their operations; Pull Grain Through the GrainCorp Network

Add Value to the GrainCorp Network

From a resource utilisation perspective, the assets

Simply 'moving grain around' doesn't tell the full

that GrainCorp owns, such as silos, sheds,

story of what grain marketing can do; it can also

bunkers, ports facilities and ship loaders are only

add additional value for customer (and for

providing value to the company if they are being

GrainCorp) by providing tailored solutions for the

utilised. Fro grain to move through these assets, it

movement and delivery of commodities that

needs to be sold to a customer; in this respect,

maximise the value to the business and outcome

grain marketing is not only the main revenue raising

for the customer. A range of delivery qualities,

activity of the organisation, but the key to effective

locations, freight options and timelines can be

resource utilisation of our capital.

arranged to maximise value to all parties involved in the transaction.

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Production & Statistics Marketing activity is driven by the domestic and international demand for grain commodities. As can be seen from the graph to the right, while the demand for grain varies greatly from year to year, overall demand trends upwards when viewed over the timescale of a decade or more.

Major Customers GrainCorp's major customers cover a wide geographic area from the Pacific, through South-East Asia, to Japan and China, the Middle East and Europe. The graph below illustrates our top export customers by the number of tonnes purchased in the 2008/2009 marketing year.

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Grain Supply Chain The process of marketing any commodity, whether it is grain, oilseeds, wool or livestock, can be thought of as two inter-related but parallel systems. One system is the physical means of handling, storing and conditioning a commodity. The second is the pricing system which provides the underlying market signals for the movement of goods through the supply chain from the producer to the consumer.

The Supply Chain The flow of a commodity such as grain moves from the farm producer to the end-user or consumer. This can be thought of as a 'marketing chain' connecting supply and demand. At points in the chain where changes in ownership of the commodity occur, price can be determined (we'll discuss this further in later sections). This is illustrated in the diagram below.

As one moves from left to right across the diagram, the commodity is usually assembled into larger and larger lots. The volume or number of individual cash transactions at each point in the marketing chain also typically declines while the quantity of size of each transaction usually increases. In addition, the price or value of the commodity increases as value is added.

Price Basing Point As can be imagined, the price of grain will vary greatly depending on the point at which the customer 'takes delivery' or is responsible for the grain. For GrainCorp, the price point of the grain will be lower the closer to the collection point that the customer takes responsibility.

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

For example, if the customer takes responsibility for the grain when it is in the silo, they will have to pay for the cost of road or rail transport to the port, elevation into the port silo, loading on to the ship, freight to the destination port, unloading costs and logistical costs associated with final delivery to the production site. The price of the grain will be lower if GrainCorp takes responsibility for any of these steps. Commodities costs are highest when the product is sold C&F, CIF or CIFFO, all of which involve freight, insurance and unloading or a combination of all three.

International Price Discovery The comparative distance between two sellers and the market for a particular commodity can enable us to determine the price that which a commodity can be sold. For example, image that a seller in the U.S.> places a price of $200 per tonne on their grain and they will incur a cost of $41 per tonne to ship that grain to a customer in South East Asia. We can use these amounts to work out how much we can price grain for, and still be competitive in that market. Given that Australia is geographically closer to South East Asia than the U.S., our freight costs will be lower. Assuming a freight cost of $32 per tonne, a quick calculation will tell us;

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As we can see, while the commodity price in the U.S. is $9.00 lower than in Australia, the freight costs to move the commodity into a South East Asian market is significantly higher. We can then afford to sell at a slightly higher price into this market and take advantage of a higher margin on this commodity. The reverse would also be true for a market such as Latin American which is closer to U.S. growers and handlers. Alternatively, we could lower our price and take market share from a competitor who must bring grain from further afield.

Local Price Discovery We can also use the same technique to work out how to price grain domestically. The diagram below shows the potential prices arrived at for three locations in Victoria. Given that Australia is geographically closer to South East Asia than the U.S., our freight costs will be lower. Assuming a freight cost of $32 per tonne, a quick calculation will tell us;

Commodity Price vs. Freight Cost As we've seen, the cost of a commodity will vary depending whereabouts on the supply chain the customer takes responsibility for the goods being purchased, and the distance from the market. Another factor that must be considered is the ratio of the freight cost to the total value of the commodity. As you will see from the table below, the cost of freight is not standard for all commodities.

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Consequently, the price of a commodity will be related to the cost of shipping that commodity to the end user and the ease at which this can be done. Taking wool as an example, we can see that the value of this commodity is far greater than the cost of shipping it to the customer; not only does it have a higher commodity price based on its comparative scarcity (~1.3 million tonnes per year), it can be baled easily into a standard size and shape, can be stored indefinitely until market conditions are favourable, and is easier to handle than loose commodities such as grain. In comparison, wheat is a loose food commodity, has a finite storage life, must be stored with care and has a lower unit value than wool. In this respect, the percentage of the freight cost of the total commodity price is much higher for wheat than many other commodities and the margins for wheat traders are therefore significantly smaller. Freight costs therefore play a major role in consideration the price of wheat.

Supply & Demand While the flow of a commodity moves from the on-farm producer to the end-user or consumer, price signals from the consumer flow back to the producer through the marketing chain. The forward flow of the commodity therefore represents Supply and then backwards flow of information regarding price represents Demand. At points in the chain where changes in ownership of the commodity occur, price is discovered. This is illustrated in the diagram below. As one moves from right to left across the diagram, the price is typically lower as costs and margins are deducted. The marketplace reflects these supply/demand imbalances through adjustments in the price.

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Trading I: Inroduction to Grain Marketing

Risk As we learned in the previous course, Trading I: Introduction to Grain Marketing, Risk can be defined as

What is a Hedge?

likelihood that something will occur that will affect the business at some time in the future. Usually we expect that this „something‟ will be an occurrence with negative consequences. There are three main sources of Risk that we try to manage in the context of Grain Marketing, being;

In finance, a hedge is a position established in one

 Price Risk

market in an attempt to offset

The risk that prices will move against a

exposure to price fluctuations

position that a trader has taken in a

in some opposite position in

commodity market

another market. There are many

 Customer Risk

specific

financial

vehicles to accomplish this.

The risk that the customer will not „meet their end‟ of the contract that has been made. For example, the customer may not have the financial means to pay for the commodity when the time comes for delivery  Logistics & Operational Risks

The risk that a logistical issue might prevent or delay the delivery of the commodity to a market or other risks that affect the operation of the organisation or its infrastructure

Risk Management Hedging & Futures Hedging in the futures market is one way that we can minimise risk. A future hedge serves as a substitute for a cash purchase or sale. As we‟ve seen, futures contracts (often simply called „Futures‟) are contacts between a buyer and a seller to exchange a;  A specified asset or commodity 15/05/2012C:\Documents

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Trading II: Grain Marketing for Managers

 Of standardised quantity  Of standardised quality  At a specified future date  For a price agreed on today Futures are exchange traded (they are traded like other securities on an exchange like a stock exchange) but are classed as derivatives.

Summary In this learning event we have covered the following topics;

What is Grain Marketing? The Organisation and Structure of the GrainCorp Trading team GrainCorp major customers and Australian grain production statistics The Grain Supply Chain Price Discovery, Supply & Demand Risks & Risk Management If you require a more in-depth treatment of any of the above topics, you are encouraged to attend the Trading II: Grain Marketing for Managers course which is a pre-requisite for future learning events in the Grain Marketing curriculum

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Glossary A ABARE- Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics Arbitrage- The simultaneous purchase of one commodity against the sale of another in order to profit from distortions from usual price relationships. Variations include simultaneous purchase and sale of different months of the same commodity against the sale of another commodity At the Market – Refers to orders to be filled at the best possible price as soon as they reach the pit. Also known as Market Orders

B Basis – The difference between a cash price at a specific location and the price of the underlying futures contract. Basis Contract – A privately negotiated cash market contract in which the buyer and seller initially lock in the basis but not the price level. Other terms of the contract, such as delivery time, place, premiums and discounts for grain quality, are negotiable. Bear – Someone who thinks the market will decline Bear Market – A period of declining prices Bearish – Conditions suggesting lower prices Bid – An expression of desire to buy a specific quantity of a commodity at a stated price Blending – The combining of two or more lots of grain to make a new lot that will be of better quality than at least one of the lots forming the blend. Board of Trade – The old name for the licensed commodity exchange, located in Chicago also known as the CBOT, now owned by the CME group. Affords facilities for both cash and futures contract trading in grains, meats, building material and precious metals. Broker – A person paid a fee or commission for acting as an agent in making contracts, sales or purchases. Brokerage – A fee charged by a broker for exchange of a transaction; an amount per transaction or a percentage of the total value of the transaction. 15/05/2012C:\Documents

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Bull – Someone who thinks that market prices will rise Bull Market – A period of rising prices Bullish – Conditions suggesting higher prices Buy on Opening – To buy at the beginning of a trading session at a price within the opening range Buy Stop Order – An order to sell that becomes a market order when the commodity sells (or is bid) at or above the specified stop price. Buying Hedge – Buying futures contracts to protect against a possible price increase of cash commodities that will be purchased in the future. At the time the cash commodities are bought, the open futures position is closed y selling an equal number and type of futures contracts as those that were initially purchased.

C C&F – Costs and Freight paid to the port of destination Call Option – An option that gives the buyer the right, but not obligation, to purchase (go “long”) the underlying futures contracts at the same strike price but with a different expiration month. Call Value – At expiration, equal to the futures price, minus the strike price of the call Carry – For physical commodities, the cost of storage space, insurance and financial charges incurred by holding that commodity. Cash Commodity- The physical commodity as distinguished from futures contracts merely based on the physical commodity. The actual physical commodity being bought or sold. Also known as actuals. Cash Contract – A sales agreement for either immediate or future delivery of the actual product Cash Price – Current market price of the actual physical commodity. Also called spot price Cash Settlement – Transactions involving index-based futures contracts that are settled in cash based on the actual value of the index on the last trading day, in contrast to those that specify the delivery of a commodity or financial instrument. CIF – Cost, Insurance & Freight paid to the port of destination

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Clearing House – An agency or corporation of a futures exchange that is responsible for settling (matching) trades, clearing trade, collecting and maintaining margin monies, regulating delivery and reporting trading data. Clearing houses act as intermediaries to all contracts, acting as buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer. Closing Price – The last price paid for a commodity on a trading day COFO – Commercially objectionable foreign odour Commission – A percentage of money given as payment for performance of certain duties Contract – An agreement between buyer and seller in a transaction Contract Grades – The standard grades of commodities listed in the rules of the exchange that must be met when delivering cash commodities against futures contracts. Cost of Carry – For physical commodities, the cost of storage space, insurance and finance charges Cost of Storage – The rate charged for physical warehousing of a commodity. May include in and/or out elevator charges. Crop Year – the time span from harvest to harvest for agricultural commodities.

D Daily Trading Limit – The maximum price range set by the exchange cash day for a contract. Day Order – An order that will be filled during the day‟s trading session or cancelled. Deferred Pricing – A contractual arrangement to fix price at a time subsequent to delivery and exchange of title. Delayed Pricing – The arrangement to fix a price at a time subsequent to delivery and exchange of title. Delivery – The transfer of a commodity from the seller to the buyer of a contract Derivative – A broad class of financial instruments often used to manage risks that include options, swaps, futures, forwards and their combinations.

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E Ex Store – A selling term for commodities in a warehouse where title passes from seller to buyer n exit or out-loading EFP – Exchange for Physicals; a transaction generally used by two hedgers who want to exchange futures for cash positions. Also referred to as against actuals‟ or „versus cash‟. Exercise Price – The price at which the futures contract underlying a call or put option can be purchased or sold. Also known as the strike price. Expiration Date – Options on futures generally expire on a specific date during the month preceding the futures contract delivery month. For example, an option on a March future contract expires in February but is referred to as a March option because its exercise would result in a March futures contract position.

F Fill or Kill – A customer order that is price limit order that must filled immediately or cancelled. FOB – Free on Board; indicates that all delivery, inspection, and elevation or loading costs involved in putting commodities on board a carrier have been paid. Futures Contract – A legally binding agreement, made on the floor of a futures exchange, to buy or sell a commodity or financial instrument sometime in the future. Standardised according to quantity, quality and delivery time and location for each commodity. Hedger – An individual or organisation who holds or anticipates holding a cash position and who achieves price change protection by purchasing a futures contract for the same or a similar commodity, selling at a later date to offset their initial position. Hedging – The practice of offsetting the price risk inherent in any cash market position by taking an equal but opposite position in the futures market.

L Liquid – A characteristic of a security or commodity market with enough units outstanding to allow large transactions without a substantial change in price. Long – One who has bought futures contracts or owns a cash commodity

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Long (n) – One who has bought futures contracts or the cash commodity and has not yet offset that position. Long (v) – Going long, the action of taking a position in which one has bought futures contracts or the cash commodity without taking the offsetting action. Long the Basis – A net trading position which involves buying cash or spot goods and hedging them with sales of futures. The result is a certain „long basis‟ and it is expected to be sold back at an improved „basis‟ for a profit. Long Hedge – Buyer futures contracts to protect against a possible price increase of cash commodities that will be purchased in the future. At the time the cash commodities are bought the open futures position is closed by selling an equal number and type of futures contracts as those that were initially purchased. Also referred to as a buying hedge.

M Margin – The difference between raw material costs and value of products sold in manufacture. Also refers to the safeguard that ensure that clearing members perform on their open futures contracts. Margin Call – A call or request from a clearinghouse to a member or from a brokerage to a customer, to deposit either the original margin at the time of the transaction, or to restore the initial margin to maintenance levels. Market Order – An order to buy or sell a futures contract of a given delivery month to be filled at the best possible price and as soon as possible. Moisture – The water content in grain as determined by an approved method and device

N NACMA – The National Agriculture Commodities Marketing Association of Australia New Crop – Referring to the crop produced this coming year New Crop / Old Crop – New Crop is a crop in planning, planting, growing and production. Old crop is the commodity existing after harvest

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O Offer – An expression indicating one‟s desire to sell the commodity at a given price. The opposite of Bid Offset – Taking an exact opposite position in the market from the original position. Selling or purchasing futures contracts of the same delivery month sold or purchased during an earlier transaction. Open Order – an order to buy or sell that is good until cancelled. Option – A contract that conveys the right, but not obligation to buy or sell a particular item at a certain price for a limited time. Option Spread – The simultaneous purchase and sale of one or more options contracts, futures and or cash positions

P Physical – The actual commodity (wheat, etc) Position – A Market commitment; a buyer of futures is said to have a long position and a seller of futures contracts is said to have a short position. Price Discovery – The generation of information about „future‟ cash market prices through the futures market Price Limit Order – A customer order that specifies the price at which a trade can be executed

R Rolling – Moving a hedge from one futures month to another. This is accomplished by closing out a current future position and initiating another position in a different month.

S Settle – The last price paid for a commodity on any trading day. The exchange clearinghouse determines a firm‟s net gains or losses, margin requirements and the next day‟s price limit, based on each futures and options contract settlement price. If there is a closing range of prices, the settlement price is determined by averaging those prices. Settlement Price – The last price paid for a commodity on any trading day.

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Short (n) – One who has sold futures contracts or a cash commodity and who has not yet offset that position. Short (v) – Going short, the action of taking a position in which one sells futures contracts or the cash commodity without taking the offsetting action. Short the Basis – A net trading position which involves selling cash or sport goods and hedging them with purchases of futures. The result is a „short basis‟ and it is expected to be bought back at an improved „basis‟ for profit. Spot – The characteristic of being available of immediate (or nearly so) delivery. An outgrowth of the phrase “on the spot”, and refers to the market price for immediately available goods. Spot Month – The future contract month closest to expiration. Also referred to as the nearby delivery month Spot Price – The price at which the physical commodity is selling at a given time and place. Spread – The price difference between two related markets or commodities. Stop Limit Order- An order to buy or sell when the market reaches a specific point. Straddle – A strategy involving buying a put and a call on the same futures position. Both options carry the same strike price and expiration date.

T Thin Market – A low volume market in which a larger trade unduly affects the market price

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Appendix Contract Terms & Conditions

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Trading II: Grain Marketing for Managers

Version

Author

Changes

0.5

Ashley Cooper

Initial Draft

1.0

Ashley Cooper

First Revision

2.0

Ashley Cooper

Second Revision, New formatting

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