Trabajo Ajuste Exponencial.xlsx
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Mes
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 127.90 135.67 150.60 152.98 157.19 160.56 168.57 164.67 163.50 163.85 182.86 195.56 211.97 208.49 206.05 208.81 207.54 219.76 222.03 246.51 236.35 238.91 240.37
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 11.90 11.10 7.77 21.33 14.93 3.40 2.38 6.02 4.21 4.81 3.36 11.44 8.01 -5.57 -3.90 -1.67 -1.17 0.50 0.35 27.15 19.00 18.14 12.70 23.44 16.41 -4.97 -3.48 -3.49 -2.44 3.95 2.77 -1.81 -1.27 17.46 12.22 3.24 2.27 34.97 24.48 -14.51 -10.16 3.65 2.55 2.09 1.47
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 127.90 289.00 135.67 123.21 150.60 454.97 152.98 11.55 157.19 36.24 160.56 23.10 168.57 130.91 164.67 31.00 163.50 2.79 163.85 0.25 182.86 737.11 195.56 329.24 211.97 549.60 208.49 24.67 206.05 12.18 208.81 15.63 207.54 3.29 219.76 304.70 222.03 10.48 246.51 1222.97 236.35 210.50 238.91 13.30 240.37 4.39 4541.07
0.7 0.8 0.9
Mes
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 129.60 137.12 153.02 153.80 157.96 161.19 169.84 164.37 163.27 163.85 185.57 197.91 214.78 208.56 205.71 209.14 207.43 221.49 222.70 250.14 235.63 239.13 240.63
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 13.60 9.40 7.52 19.88 15.90 0.98 0.78 5.20 4.16 4.04 3.23 10.81 8.65 -6.84 -5.47 -1.37 -1.09 0.73 0.58 27.15 21.72 15.43 12.34 21.09 16.87 -7.78 -6.23 -3.56 -2.85 4.29 3.43 -2.14 -1.71 17.57 14.06 1.51 1.21 34.30 27.44 -18.14 -14.51 4.37 3.50 1.87 1.50
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 129.60 289.00 137.12 88.36 153.02 395.21 153.80 0.95 157.96 26.99 161.19 16.31 169.84 116.81 164.37 46.76 163.27 1.87 163.85 0.53 185.57 736.87 197.91 238.06 214.78 444.61 208.56 60.57 205.71 12.65 209.14 18.39 207.43 4.59 221.49 308.76 222.70 2.29 250.14 1176.69 235.63 329.04 239.13 19.12 240.63 3.51 4337.95
0.8
Mes
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42 240.84
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 15.30 7.70 6.93 18.77 16.89 -1.12 -1.01 4.89 4.40 3.49 3.14 10.35 9.31 -7.97 -7.17 -0.80 -0.72 0.92 0.83 27.09 24.38 12.71 11.44 19.27 17.34 -10.07 -9.07 -3.01 -2.71 4.70 4.23 -2.53 -2.28 17.75 15.97 -0.23 -0.20 33.98 30.58 -21.60 -19.44 5.84 5.26 1.58 1.43
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 131.30 289.00 138.23 59.29 155.12 352.31 154.11 1.26 158.51 23.89 161.65 12.17 170.97 107.10 163.80 63.44 163.08 0.63 163.91 0.85 188.29 733.98 199.73 161.52 217.07 371.37 208.01 101.46 205.30 9.04 209.53 22.08 207.25 6.40 223.23 314.96 223.02 0.05 253.60 1154.47 234.16 466.66 239.42 34.10 240.84 2.51 4288.56
0.9
Mes
Demanda pt 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
P` 116.00 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42
P`T 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42 240.84
(P`- P`T) 116.00 116.00 129.77 137.38 153.35 154.04 158.06 161.29 170.00 164.42 163.21 163.84 185.85 198.34 215.20 208.73 205.64 209.14 207.44 221.65 222.88 250.53 235.80 239.05
Alfa(P`-P`T) P`` 0.00 0.00 15.30 13.77 8.46 7.61 17.74 15.97 0.76 0.69 4.48 4.03 3.59 3.23 9.67 8.71 -6.20 -5.58 -1.34 -1.20 0.69 0.63 24.45 22.01 13.88 12.50 18.73 16.86 -7.19 -6.47 -3.43 -3.08 3.89 3.50 -1.89 -1.70 15.78 14.21 1.38 1.24 30.72 27.65 -16.37 -14.73 3.62 3.26 1.79 1.61
116.00 129.77 137.38 153.35 154.04 158.06 161.29 170.00 164.42 163.21 163.84 185.85 198.34 215.20 208.73 205.64 209.14 207.44 221.65 222.88 250.53 235.80 239.05 240.66
0.9
a= b=
P= a+bx
241.02 1.61
P 28
247.46
P39
265.15
a=
4
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 127.90 135.67 150.60 152.98 157.19 160.56 168.57 164.67 163.50 163.85 182.86 195.56 211.97 208.49 206.05 208.81 207.54 219.76 222.03 246.51 236.35 238.91 240.37
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 11.90 11.10 7.77 21.33 14.93 3.40 2.38 6.02 4.21 4.81 3.36 11.44 8.01 -5.57 -3.90 -1.67 -1.17 0.50 0.35 27.15 19.00 18.14 12.70 23.44 16.41 -4.97 -3.48 -3.49 -2.44 3.95 2.77 -1.81 -1.27 17.46 12.22 3.24 2.27 34.97 24.48 -14.51 -10.16 3.65 2.55 2.09 1.47
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 127.90 289.00 135.67 123.21 150.60 454.97 152.98 11.55 157.19 36.24 160.56 23.10 168.57 130.91 164.67 31.00 163.50 2.79 163.85 0.25 182.86 737.11 195.56 329.24 211.97 549.60 208.49 24.67 206.05 12.18 208.81 15.63 207.54 3.29 219.76 304.70 222.03 10.48 246.51 1222.97 236.35 210.50 238.91 13.30 240.37 4.39 4541.07
0.7 0.8 0.9
Mes
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 129.60 137.12 153.02 153.80 157.96 161.19 169.84 164.37 163.27 163.85 185.57 197.91 214.78 208.56 205.71 209.14 207.43 221.49 222.70 250.14 235.63 239.13 240.63
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 13.60 9.40 7.52 19.88 15.90 0.98 0.78 5.20 4.16 4.04 3.23 10.81 8.65 -6.84 -5.47 -1.37 -1.09 0.73 0.58 27.15 21.72 15.43 12.34 21.09 16.87 -7.78 -6.23 -3.56 -2.85 4.29 3.43 -2.14 -1.71 17.57 14.06 1.51 1.21 34.30 27.44 -18.14 -14.51 4.37 3.50 1.87 1.50
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 129.60 289.00 137.12 88.36 153.02 395.21 153.80 0.95 157.96 26.99 161.19 16.31 169.84 116.81 164.37 46.76 163.27 1.87 163.85 0.53 185.57 736.87 197.91 238.06 214.78 444.61 208.56 60.57 205.71 12.65 209.14 18.39 207.43 4.59 221.49 308.76 222.70 2.29 250.14 1176.69 235.63 329.04 239.13 19.12 240.63 3.51 4337.95
0.8
Mes
demanda p`t 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
(D-P`T) 116.00 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42 240.84
Alfa(D-P`T) P` 0.00 0.00 17.00 15.30 7.70 6.93 18.77 16.89 -1.12 -1.01 4.89 4.40 3.49 3.14 10.35 9.31 -7.97 -7.17 -0.80 -0.72 0.92 0.83 27.09 24.38 12.71 11.44 19.27 17.34 -10.07 -9.07 -3.01 -2.71 4.70 4.23 -2.53 -2.28 17.75 15.97 -0.23 -0.20 33.98 30.58 -21.60 -19.44 5.84 5.26 1.58 1.43
Error(D-P`T)^2 116.00 0.00 131.30 289.00 138.23 59.29 155.12 352.31 154.11 1.26 158.51 23.89 161.65 12.17 170.97 107.10 163.80 63.44 163.08 0.63 163.91 0.85 188.29 733.98 199.73 161.52 217.07 371.37 208.01 101.46 205.30 9.04 209.53 22.08 207.25 6.40 223.23 314.96 223.02 0.05 253.60 1154.47 234.16 466.66 239.42 34.10 240.84 2.51 4288.56
0.9
Mes
Demanda pt 1 116 2 133 3 139 4 157 5 154 6 159 7 162 8 172 9 163 10 163 11 164 12 191 13 201 14 219 15 207 16 205 17 210 18 207 19 225 20 223 21 257 22 232 23 240 24 241
P` 116.00 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42
P`T 116.00 131.30 138.23 155.12 154.11 158.51 161.65 170.97 163.80 163.08 163.91 188.29 199.73 217.07 208.01 205.30 209.53 207.25 223.23 223.02 253.60 234.16 239.42 240.84
(P`- P`T) 116.00 116.00 129.77 137.38 153.35 154.04 158.06 161.29 170.00 164.42 163.21 163.84 185.85 198.34 215.20 208.73 205.64 209.14 207.44 221.65 222.88 250.53 235.80 239.05
Alfa(P`-P`T) P`` 0.00 0.00 15.30 13.77 8.46 7.61 17.74 15.97 0.76 0.69 4.48 4.03 3.59 3.23 9.67 8.71 -6.20 -5.58 -1.34 -1.20 0.69 0.63 24.45 22.01 13.88 12.50 18.73 16.86 -7.19 -6.47 -3.43 -3.08 3.89 3.50 -1.89 -1.70 15.78 14.21 1.38 1.24 30.72 27.65 -16.37 -14.73 3.62 3.26 1.79 1.61
116.00 129.77 137.38 153.35 154.04 158.06 161.29 170.00 164.42 163.21 163.84 185.85 198.34 215.20 208.73 205.64 209.14 207.44 221.65 222.88 250.53 235.80 239.05 240.66
0.9
a= b=
P= a+bx
241.02 1.61
P 28
247.46
P39
265.15
a=
4
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