Tr-perform-rev.docx

1.4 Tourism Performance and Attractions 32. At the global level, international tourism achieved a new record in 2014 with 1.133 billion arrivals, an increase of 4.3 percent compared to 2013. This was the fifth year of consecutive growth since the global financial crisis in 2008. International tourism receipts reached US$1,245 billion worldwide in 2014, up from US$1,197 billion in 2013. Europe remained in 2014 the world’s most visited region. France, the US, Spain and China are the top most visited countries in the world. Travel for holidays, recreation and other forms of leisure accounted for just over half of all international tourist arrivals in 2014. About 14 percent of international tourists reported traveling for business and professional purposes, and another 27 percent travelled for other reasons such as visiting friends and relatives (VFR) or religious reasons. 33. Europe is still the largest source region followed by the Asia Pacific. China has been the top tourism source market since 2012 and increased their tourism expenditure abroad by 27 percent in 2014 reaching a total of US$165 billion. The other top five largest tourism spenders are the US, Germany, the UK and Russia. In 2014, about four out of five worldwide arrivals originated from within the same region (UNWTO 2015). 34. Tourism plays a large and growing role in the world economy. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) estimates that direct, indirect and induced impacts of tourism generated 10 percent of global GDP, one in eleven jobs and 30 percent of global services exports. International tourism has experienced long term growth. From 1995 to 2010 international tourist arrivals saw average annual growth of 4.1 percent, while for emerging economies the growth rate was 5.7 percent. Emerging economies also saw their share of international tourist arrivals increase from 32 percent to over 50 percent between 1990 and 2015. Table 3. Oceania represents only 1.2 percent of the world’s tourism market share 2005 2010 2013 2014 Market share 2014 (%) World 809 949 1,087 1,133 100 Advanced economies 466 513 585 618 54.5 Emerging economies 343 436 502 515 45.5 By region Africa 34.8 49.5 54 55 4.9 Americas 133.3 150.1 167.5 181.6 16.0 Asia and the Pacific 154 205.4 249.7 264 23.3 North-east Asia 85.9 111.5 127 136.1 12.0 South -east Asia 49 70.5 94.5 97.3 8.6 Oceania 10.9 11.4 12.5 13.2 1.2 South Asia 8.1 12 15.8 17.4 1.5 Europe 453.2 489.4 566.9 580.6 51.2 Middle East 33.7 54.7 48.8 51.8 4.6 Source: UNWTO Barometer October 2015 Arrivals Trends in the Pacific 35. Annual overnight visitor arrivals to Oceania, which also includes primary destinations Australia and New Zealand, grew on average 0.2 percent for the period 1995-2010, the lowest growth of any of 8 the 17 regions identified. In contrast, the Caribbean grew at 0.4 percent and North-east Asia, the fastest growing region, at 4.7 percent. Compared to global average annual growth of 3.9 percent from 2005 to 2014, PIC11 visitor arrivals have grown by 4.5 percent, or close to the UNWTO forecast for emerging economies 2010-2030. Figure 2. Long-term tourism growth has been positive, but performance varies between PICs Source: UNWTO 36. While long-term growth is positive for PIC11s, performance varies between countries and short-term decreases have resulted from political instabilities, natural disasters and global market conditions. The average annual growth rate for the five top destinations from 1995 to 2014 was 5.5 percent, while the othersix only averaged 2.5 percent. PNG saw the strongest growth over the period at 8.5 percent, largely due to growth in the natural resources sector. Fiji’s dramatic drop in arrivals in 2000 was a result of instability following a coup, which led to travel advisories imposed in origin markets. However, Fiji was able to rebound strongly by 2005 through government and private sector support for a series of marketing campaigns, as well as deep airfare and accommodation discounts once order was restored. Another coup in 2006 led to further restrictions by source markets and the temporary diversion of travelers to other destinations.

37. Natural disasters have also affected short-term patterns. The Samoa tsunami of 2009 affected arrivals for three years during the rebuilding process. Cyclone Pam, which hit Vanuatu in 2015, has damaged many accommodation properties and will affect 2015-2016 visitor arrivals. Data available for 2015 shows a contraction of approximately 17 percent. Climate change may be increasing the frequency and intensity of tropical storms in the region, and rising sea levels will threaten coastal communities and tourism products. 38. Global market conditions have both positive and negative effects on arrivals. Fiji has been negatively affected by the high Australian dollar, which diverted some of this major market to alternative destinations. Palau, the primary driver of regional growth in 2014, has experienced a rapid increase in arrivals from China. For PNG, the increase in arrivals is largely due to high business and worker arrivals—65 percent in 2014—linked to major natural resource projects. There has been a decline since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in the numbers of Europeans—and in some markets North Americans—visiting the PICs. Performance of Regional and Global Competitors 39. Visitor numbers to most PIC11s have been growing, whereas other competing Pacific regional small island states Guam, French Polynesia and New Caledonia have been flat or in long-term decline. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Visitor Arrivals (thousands) Other PICs Vanuatu Samoa PNG Palau Fiji 9 In 2014 arrivals to the PIC11 totaled 1.37 million, driven by the five top countries, with Fiji generating 50 percent of total PIC11 arrivals (Figure 3). Figure 3. Visitor numbers to most PICs have been growing, while competing pacific island states have been flat or in long-term decline Sources: UNWTO 2015, SPTO 40. PIC11s compete with a number of destinations in their main markets. Australian outbound travelers to Bali in 2014 exceeded one million, compared to 350,000 to Fiji. The strong Australian dollar, resulting from the now-fading mining boom, made travel to North America and Europe more viable alternatives. The three top Indian Ocean destinations, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles, are major destinations for China, Southeast Asia and Europe. Of the regional competitors—French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Niue and Northern Marianas—the Cook Islands compete effectively with their Polynesian neighbors, but arrivals have been static for the last three years, while the French territories have been declining in importance