Towards Regional Food Security In South Africa

Food Policy, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 491–504, 1998  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Printed in Great Britain 0306-9192/99/$ - see front matter

Pergamon

PII: S0306-9192(98)00057-8

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector Johan Van Rooyen* Agricultural Business Chambers and Chair in Agribusiness Management, University of Pretoria, PO Box 1508, Pretoria, 0001 South Africa

Howard Sigwele Research Assistant, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0001 South Africa In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture’s share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.  1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Southern African agriculture, food security, new policies, food balance sheets, transformation strategies *Corresponding author

491

492

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

Introduction – a new role for the agricultural sector? In the southern African Region (SAR)1 large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture’s share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availabillity of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture.

Developing a conceptual framework: agriculture in economic transformation and development in a regional context The role or contribution of the agricultural sector in economic transformation2 and regional development is mainly determined by three features, namely, the relationship between the agricultural sector and other sectors of the economy (the transformation phase in which the agricultural sector finds itself); the way agriculture is treated in the political process; and the chosen model for regionalism (Van Rooyen, 1997). These are discussed below, with some references to the southern African region.

1

Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Mauritius, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zimbia, Zimbabwe. These are all countries of SADC. Countries recently included in SADC, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Seychelles were not included in this analysis. 2 Economic transformation is the process whereby changes in the economic structure leads to increased per capita income. Economic transformation will in particular lead to the decrease in the proportional contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP and the reduction of the percentage (and eventually absolute numbers) of the economic labour force employed by agriculture in favour of the other economic sectors (Tomich et al., 1995).

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

493

Agriculture and economic transformation Empirical analysis of different countries show a positive interrelationship between agriculture development and overall economic growth. A comparison of the growth performance of developing countries with more than a 20% contribution of agriculture to total GDP, shows that in 17 of 23 countries, where the agriculture rate of growth exceeded 3%, overall GDP growth rates were higher than 5%. Moreover, 11 of the 17 countries with GDP growth rates below 3% displayed agriculture growth rates below 1% (World Bank, 1992). The specific role and scope of agriculture in economic development depends to a large extent on the phase of economic transformation in a country (Johnston and Mellor, 1961; Mosher, 1971; Mellor, 1966, 1986; Hayamy and Ruttan, 1971; Timmer, 1988). In this section the relationship between agricultural policy and different phases of economic transformation and economic environments, as defined by Timmer (1988), will be explored. This is important because of the differing phases of economic transformation in the southern African region. These are now briefly discussed. (a) Phase 1 – getting agriculture moving. In the early stages of development the concern is with ‘getting agriculture moving’ (Mosher, 1971). This is so because a significant share of a country’s revenues is still extracted from agriculture at this stage because the rest of the economy is so small. The majority of people also reside and operate in the agricultural sector. Direct or indirect taxation of agriculture is therefore often the only significant source of government revenue. The development of a productive agriculture is necessary. Building a productive agriculture requires that resources be devoted to the agricultural sector itself. These resources should in particular be allocated to infrastructure and marketing development systems and to stimulate farmers to adopt new and appropriate technologies as they become available. Timmer (1988) describes this as the Mosher environment. (b) Phase 2 – agriculture as the major or key generator of economic growth. As investments in the agricultural production structure begin to pay off, a second phase in the transformation process starts. An environment is now created which requires the agricultural sector to be a key contributor to the overall growth process. This is through a combination of factors outlined by Johnston and Mellor (1961) i.e., through linkages and multipliers with the emerging industrial and service sectors. Differences in labour productivity and income between the rural, industrial and urban sectors still occur and labour will still move from the agricultural sector to these sectors. The crucial emphasis must thus be to activate these linkages and multipliers through investment in agricultural production and agri-business to stimulate industrial development and non-agricultural employment. Timmer (1988) describes this as the Johnston– Mellor environment. (c) Phase 3 – integrating agriculture into the economy. The process of narrowing the productivity gap between the various economic sectors gives rise to the third environment, in which agriculture is integrated into the rest of the economy through the development of more efficient labour and financial markets that link the urban and rural economies. The improved functioning of factor markets merely speeds the process of extracting labour and capital from those uses in agriculture with low returns, to those in industry or services with higher productivity. The direct proportional contribution of agriculture to the economy is now declining rapidly although productivity and income differentials between sectors are also declining. As agriculture is integrated into the macro economy through the labour and income multipliers and linkages, it becomes much more vulnerable to fluctuations in macro policies, prices and trade. Management by traditional policy instruments of the agricultural sector, such as exten-

494

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

sion activities and specific pricing programmes for commodity development and marketing become increasingly ineffective and costly (Hayamy and Ruttan, 1971). Timmer (1988) describes this as the Schultz–Ruttan environment. (d) Phase 4 – agriculture in industrial economies. The treatment of agriculture in industrialised economies creates the fourth environment to influence the contribution of agriculture. As the share of the labour force in agriculture falls below about 20% and the share of food expenditure in urban household budgets drops to about 30%, low-cost food is not as important to the overall economy nor is it as expensive in relative terms. A host of political problems may now arise if low farm incomes are allowed to continue to push resources out of agriculture. By this stage of the process, the share of the farm-gate price of the commodity in the consumer’s market basket is small because of processing and marketing costs. The notion of protectionism could direct agricultural policies. For example, commodity price supports are considered as the primary vehicle for supporting farm incomes, and subsidies have substantial effects on resource allocation. Farmers invest heavily in land and machinery when farm prices are high, only to produce surpluses that are impossible to sell profitably. Eventually, the budgetary and distortionary costs of this approach could become so high that even very wealthy economies such as the European Union, Japan, and the United States must face difficult choices to diminish agricultural support. Timmer (1988) describes this as the DG Johnson environment. Political and government support for agriculture A second feature which influences the performance of agriculture in the economy is the relationship between politics and agriculture. The position of the agricultural and rural sectors and their impact on the political market are very important, as this normally influences the magnitude of budgetary and policy support from the government (Carney and Van Rooyen, 1996). In the southern African region the position of agriculture to influence events is generally weak. ‘In short, the politics of exclusion cuts to the heart of Africa’s empty harvest’ (Eicher and Rukuni, 1994: 398). The practice of taxing the agricultural sector while excluding it from representation in governance is common in Third World politics. This is without exception different in industrialised countries where farmer lobby groups are influential in bargaining services and investments for their rural constituency. The position of the agricultural sector in the early phases of transformation virtually forces governments to tax the agricultural sector. However, if such extractive policies are not complemented by re-investment in the agricultural and rural sectors through infrastructure, institution development and human capital development, a country will never have a highly productive agriculture which is required for transforming the economy. Unfortunately, history in Africa (and some southern African countries) shows only token reinvestments of tax revenues into infrastructure, institutions and human capital serving agriculture. This is in sharp contrast with government programmes during the early transformation periods in high growth countries such as Japan and Taiwan. Positive rural investment policies have also promoted agriculture in countries such as Zimbabwe during its ‘first’ agricultural revolution in 1950–80 (Eicher and Rukuni, 1994), and in South Africa’s commercial farming areas (Vink, 1992). In both countries, commercial farmer lobbies were strong and government support substantial for the agricultural and rural sectors. The role of agriculture in regionalism There are basically two models for economic regionalism i.e., sectoral co-operation and trade integration. The agricultural sector could be prominent in both these models. Sectoral co-

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

495

operation yields benefits by: decreasing duplication of functions in different countries; enhancing efforts to deal with issues such as human, animal and plant diseases which know no borders; facilitating the sharing of regional resources and information knowledge and experience in activities such as research and training; enhancing the region’s infrastructure; enhancing the bargaining power of member countries when they act collectively with respect to sectorial interests at an international level; and by attracting donor funding. Trade integration has the potential to yield substantial benefits primarily because it reduces both tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade and provides member countries with broader markets for their commodities, while enhancing the transferability of resources towards optimal production functions in various economic sectors. Trade integration and sectoral co-operation between countries, operating within different transformation phases, therefore contribute, both directly and indirectly, to sustainable economic growth and development in a region. Both these models will require a set of conditions to stimulate regionalism. These include diversity in production, the natural resource base and consumption; positive conditions related to issues such as trade proportionality; differences in comparative advantages; a high degree of price distortion within the region; tradable commodities with high elasticities of supply and demand; the potential to create, not divert trade; and the ability to design compensation programmes to support those in the region who loose out over the short and medium term as a result of regional cooperation. Agricultural activities could feature prominently in all these models and the role of agriculture will be determined by these particulars within a region.

The food status in southern Africa An estimated 140.2 million people live in the Southern African Region (SAR) and agriculture plays a significant role in the economy of most of the countries in the region. The majority of these people reside in rural areas. In most of the countries of the region, rural people are poor, the resource base is relatively poor or under-developed and climatic conditions relatively unstable (African Development Bank, 1993). The share of agricultural value added in GDP is decreasing for all the SAR states except Angola, Mozambique and Zambia. On average, GDP per capita has fallen 0.8% per year in real terms for sub-Saharan countries, which include SADC countries. While some countries such as Botswana showed some improvement, the majority recorded a negative growth rate (World Development Indicators, 1997). Food supply and consumption in southern Africa In order to understand and analyse trends in food supply and consumption in southern Africa, information from food balance sheets prepared by the SADC Food Security Technical and Administration Unit (SADC: FSTAU) in Harare, Zimbabwe was used from 1986/87 up to 1996/97. A Food Balance Statement (FBS) is an annual tabular measurement by a country of the macro food situation, indicating the total supply (domestic production, stocks, imports) and total consumption for human beings, livestock, seed, manufacturing and the provision of losses, population, per capita consumption of the commodities covered as well the daily nutritional intakes of calories, proteins and fats. This analysis was drawn from 22 annual food balance sheets for 11 SADC member states covering maize and wheat from 1986/87 till 1996/97 (in total 242). Other cereal commodities covered by the SADC: FSTAU have been excluded for the sake of brevity. To date, only food balance sheets for cereals (maize, wheat, sorghum, rice, millet, barley,

496

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

oats) as well as cassava are covered by the SADC. However, these commodities do not fully represent the food security equation (demand and supply) of the sub-continent as livestock products (beef, lamb, mutton, milk) as well as fish and vegetables are not included. While at present maize still provides the largest source of calories, proteins and fats in all SADC countries, it is necessary that SADC: FSTAU cover most of the commodities produced and consumed in member states for policy and planning purposes. Apart from these food stuffs, food security also includes non-food products such as cotton as these provide income to purchase food at a household level. Trends in food supply (i) Maize. Maize is the largest produced and consumed cereal in the SAR. Despite its popularity, except for Zimbabwe, South Africa and to a large extent Tanzania, Zambia and Malawi, most of the remaining SADC countries meet their maize supplies from commercial imports. For the period under review (1986/87–1996/97), while the former group produced up to 90% of their maize domestically in most years, the other remaining states were at least 30% dependent on imports to meet their total food supply. For some SADC member states, the normal dependency on food maize imports was almost 90% or more to meet total requirements. The reasons for the poor domestic production include unfavourable climatic conditions, a complex natural resource base, inappropriate sectoral and macro-economic policies and support systems and internal strife/war. Countries such as Botswana, Namibia, parts of South Africa, parts of Zimbabwe, parts of Tanzania, Lesotho and Swaziland face a limited natural resource base as well as variable climatic factors. Erratic rainfall by season and locality as well as low fertile sandy soils characterise most of the low production areas in SADC countries. Even when some of these poorly naturally endowed countries tried to pursue food self-sufficiency policy objectives, the maize production results were disappointing because of chronic crop failures. For those SADC countries such as Zimbabwe and South Africa, where the domestic production of maize fulfilled most of the total supply, the reasons for this apparent success were largely due to favourable weather conditions, a reasonable quality natural resource base, high quality extension and research support systems, and also state subsidies for producers, monopoly agricultural marketing parastatals (which also served and protected the interests of surplus producers) and protection from external imports. With the ongoing major economic reforms (trade liberalisation, market-based exchange rates, macro-economic discipline, privatisation, reduction in government expenditure/deficits, etc.) by most SADC countries (Abalu, 1997), it is however doubtful whether this trend of meeting maize requirements from subsidised domestic production will continue. (ii) Wheat. As far as wheat is concerned, practically all SADC member states imported this commodity as the crop is basically a temperate climate product. Zimbabwe and South Africa have, however, during this period produced most of their wheat domestically although under costly circumstances. Besides very few localised areas suitable for wheat in these countries, farmers received subsidies and producer prices, well above the world producer prices. Further, highly subsidised irrigation was promoted to produce wheat. Evidently, SADC as a whole (except for the latest members that joined the organisation like the Democratic Republic of Congo), faces serious shortages of water for human consumption as well as other important sectors. It would therefore appear that for SADC as a regional and trading block, a choice will have to be made whether a scarce commodity like water should be treated like a public good or scarce commodity. If this commodity is treated like a scarce commodity (as indeed it should) and if the sub-continent continues to experience high population growth rates, the

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

497

practice to subsidise irrigation to produce low value crops such as wheat and maize will indeed require thorough analysis and introspection. As most of SADC countries are not suitable for the production of wheat, a temperate crop, total supplies will continue to depend on commercial imports from areas where production costs are lower due to a favourable natural resource base and import (c.i.f) prices are below locally produced export (f.o.b.) prices. In short, for SADC world trade will have to play an increasing role to meet total supplies for commodities such as wheat and barley where the region does not enjoy any comparative advantage. This is the case with the exception of a few areas in South Africa, where declining exchange rates will encourage domestic wheat production. (iii) Small grains and rice. For the supplies of other cereals such as sorghum and millet, most SADC countries depend mainly on their domestic production. There is little trade among SADC member states in these small grains and yet they are more suited to dry areas. Rice is mainly imported by most SADC countries. The crop is produced through irrigation. However, most of these countries are not endowed with sufficient water resources to venture into viable irrigation. (iv) Strategic grain reserves. Besides domestic production and trade to meet total requirements, almost all SADC countries during the 1986/87–1996/97 period also kept large contingency stocks of mainly maize and wheat. In some countries, the size of these cereal reserves was at least equivalent to 3 months’ total consumption. In the early 1990s, there was a desire by SADC to replace the physical grain reserve with a financial facility as the former was considered as economically unsustainable. The financial facility has not been successful hence the continued maintenance of physical stocks by most SADC members and yet the operation costs of these strategic reserves are a financial burden to several countries (especially in the light of tight budgetary macro-economic structural adjustment programmes by the International Monetary Fund). It is doubtful whether most SADC countries can continue maintaining high physical stocks while at the same time advocating for free trade following the establishment of the SADC Trade Protocol in 1997. Food losses at farm level and during post harvest storage are reported to be very high and this in turn reduces food availability. Farm storage technology is therefore very important to increase food supplies especially among households in rural environments. Trends in food consumption SADC countries fulfilled their food consumption requirements through a combination of domestic production (supported by heavy public subsidies as well as import restrictions), trade and the maintenance of large physical stocks (Abalu, 1997). Exports of traditional commodities (maize, cotton, beef, tea, coffee, etc.) were also promoted to secure scarce foreign earnings to import food as well as other essential goods and services. Maize is the most consumed cereal on a per capita basis and is also the largest source of calories, proteins and fats. This trend of high maize consumption will continue for many years unless there are fundamental per capita income changes in preference to other commodities such as some wheat products and vegetables (potatoes) which have higher income elasticity. These particular trends are expected in South Africa (Van Rooyen et al., 1996). There is, however, a discernible increase in the per capita consumption of wheat in the region which may create balance of payment problems for some countries. For almost all SADC countries wheat is the second most consumed cereal after maize. As most wheat products tend to show high income elasticity, unless there are taste changes among consumers in SADC, it is through

498

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

trade that increase in wheat per capita consumption can be achieved as the region is not suitable for the production of this crop. Wheat has become the second most important cereal consumed in the region and is also the second largest source of the nutrients. Sorghum is the third important source of calories, proteins and fats in SADC. For countries such as Botswana, Tanzania and Mozambique, sorghum is the second most consumed cereal after maize. Millet is also significantly consumed in Namiba, Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Malawi and to some extent Tanzania, cassava provides the largest source of calories after maize. Challenges for the food supply system: a Botswana case study There is a need to investigate the additional use of millet as well as sorghum in most of the SADC countries as these crops are suitable to many areas. Possibilities for the potential use of these small grains lie in the food sector, beer and livestock feed industries. Botswana has, for instance, developed a food mixture based on sorghum and soya beans for children under 3 years of age. This food commodity known as ‘Tsabana’ is composed of 75% sorghum while the rest is soya and a wide range of vitamins and minerals. Tsabana, whose literal translation is ‘food for children’, has proved very popular as the food is used for the government-supplementary feeding programme. Further, the food manufacturer, Foods Botswana Ltd, is already working on the full commercialisation of this food product with a view to exporting the commodity within the sub-region. It should, however, be pointed out from the outset that the increase in the demand for small grains such as sorghum and millet will require intensive research efforts to change the attitudes and tastes of consumers away from the traditionallybased maize and wheat products. Naturally this will also call for advertisements and consumer packaging, etc. in order to appeal to the broader and yet sophisticated rural and urban markets. Assuming the demand for this sorghum-based food product increases, this may subsequently lead to more domestic production of sorghum grain within the region. A demand led increase in the domestic production of small grains such as sorghum may contribute to food and income security among low income farmers. The importance of market development It should be noted that in the region per capita food output has fallen by nearly 2% per year over the past decade and a half. Yet the demand for cereals in the region is forecast to rise from 27 million tonnes in 1989 to about 70 million tonnes in 2025! Urbanisation trends indicate that urban demand will rise from 9 million to 34 million tonnes over this period. This fourfold increase will have to be met, almost fully, through food market systems. It can also reasonably be assumed that a substantial contribution will have to be supplied through regional production systems.

Policies and strategies for agriculture in the region This section outlines ‘new’ roles, strategic approaches and policies to enable the agricultural sector to contribute optimally to economic transformation, regional development and food security. Dealing with diversity Agriculture’s share in the GDP and employment is taken as the main criteria to classify countries according to the Timmer framework. By using this criteria, countries could be grouped

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

499

as indicated in Table 1. Countries with high shares of labour and GDP in agriculture, but with low GNP per capita could be viewed as still operating in the early phases of transformation (Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania). On the other hand, countries with low shares but with high GNP per capita can be classified as highly transformed countries (South Africa, Botswana and Mauritius). The grouping of countries in the region according to their stage in the economic transformation process however is complicated and requires further analysis. First, it is necessary to note the production asymmetry in the agriculture sector in various countries. This asymmetry is the result of diverse economic transformation processes which have manifested in dualistic agriculture sectors within particular countries. Dualism occurred in some countries where a divide was structured through policies and legal provisions between large scale commercial farming and the smallholder sectors. Dualism is strongly observed in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia and to a lesser degree in Zambia (refer to Csaki et al., 1992). This situation led to different farming systems and different relationships between farming and household activities within one particular country. Diverse transitions also occurred within countries where certain areas are more developed and integrated into the economy than other areas. Examples are the southern part of Tanzania which is still isolated and operates in a typical Phase 1 or Mosher environment, while coastal Tanzania is integrated into the economy and clearly already operates in the Johnston/Mellor stage of transformation. Agriculture in Northern and Central Zimbabwe could be classified as Johnston/Mellor due to the emerging linkages with the wider economy. Parts of Southern Zimbabwe’s agriculture is more advanced, operating in the Schultz/Ruttan environment. South Africa’s agricultural economy shows aspects of three environments, namely the Johnston/Mellor environment in the high potential areas of previous homelands, whereas the summer grain producing areas operate in the Schultz/Ruttan scenario. The high value production in parts of the fruit (Western Cape, Lowveld) and sugar producing areas (Kwa-Zulu Natal and Mpumalanga) show indicators of a typical G. D. Johnson environment (strong farmer lobbies and links with private industry, conflict between farmers and environmentalists, active rural industry, commoditisation of stewardship of the natural and cultural heritage by farmers in exchange for government support and society support, etc). Lesotho’s classification must take into consideration its weak natural resource base and dependency on the South African economy. Similar features as in the low potential areas in the former SA homelands are apparent. A major consideration in these low potential areas is to attain food security through a stable flow of income remittances, household level food production where possible and local market development. Namibia, although less dependent on the South African economy, shows similar dualistic characteristics between the strong commercial sector (livestock farming) and the high potential but under-developed areas in the North. A classification of countries to take cognisance of diverse patterns of economic transformation in the region is shown in Table 1. From this a description of the potential role of agriculture in each country can be made. This role will depend on the quality of natural resources for farming and the predominant stage in economic transformation in a country. The role of agriculture in the various countries will vary in relation to this sectors’ ability to operate as ‘engine of growth’, food provider, the earning of foreign exchange and employment and income generation. These features will impact on the main strategy of food security and the contribution of the agriculture sector to food policy.

Good in North High quality, land-scarce Good in South

Good

Poor

Good in parts

Good

Good

Poor, good in north

Mozambique

Zambia

Lesotho

Zimbabwe

Angola

Swaziland

Namibia

Tanzania

Malawi

Quality of the natural resource base for farming

Country

Mosher/Johnston– Mellor Mosher/Schultz– Ruttan

Mosher

Mosher/Johnston– Mellor

(Mosher?)

Mosher/Johnston– Mellor

Mosher/Johnston– Mellor

Mosher/Johnston– Mellor

Mosher

Predominant stage in economic transformation

No

Complementary

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Engine of growth

Important in the North

Important

Important

At household level Important

Important

Important

Important

Important

Food provisionb

Roles of agriculture

Grains, beef, high value, crops Export crops Beef, high value crops Beef

Grains, high value crop Grains, high value crop No

High value crops High value crops

Foreign exchange earnings

Direct, important Direct, important Limited

Direct, important

No

Direct, important

Direct, important

Direct, important Direct, important

Employment creation

Table 1 New roles for agriculture in the SADC countries

Limited

Important

Important

Important

No

Important

Important

Important

Important

Income generation

Continued...

Small holder farming, wages, remittances Wages, remittances, small holder farming in the north

Small holder farming

Small holder and commercial farming, wages, remittances

Wages, remittances

Farming, agricultural wages, remittances

Small holder farming; wages

Small holder farming; remittances

Small holder farming

Main source of food securitya

500 Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

Generally poor, but good grazing Good

Good in parts

Botswana

South Africa

Mellor–Johnston/ Schultz–Ruttan/GD Johnson

Mellor–Johnston /Schultz–Ruttan

Mosher/Schultz– Ruttan

Predominant stage in economic transformation

Complementary

Complementary

Complementary

Engine of growth

Households in some parts Important

Households in some parts

Food provisionb

Roles of agriculture

Food and high value crops

High value crops

Beef

Foreign exchange earnings

Continued

Important linkages – direct

Linkages – direct

Limited

Employment creation

Important linkages

Linkages

Not important

Income generation

Wages, remittances, commercial farming, small holder production in some parts

Wages, small holder production in some parts

Wages, remittances

Main source of food securitya

b

In emergency situations food aid may be required in some countries. Food provision at the domestic/national levels could become increasingly important if local currencies devaluate and major purchases are required at ever increasing costs.

a

Mauritius

Quality of the natural resource base for farming

Country

Table 1

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

501

502

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

Country policies Appropriate country policies will be derived from the major policy positions in each country. The majority of agricultural sectors in the region operate predominantly within a Phase 2 or ‘Johnston–Mellor’ environment i.e., where employment is still released from the agricultural sector to other sectors of the economy and linkages and multipliers are starting to emerge from agricultural production and marketing strategies. In these countries policy measures, strategies and programmes should in particular promote access to infrastructure and farmer support services, appropriate technologies, infrastructural development, human capital development, training in farm management and technology application, the improvement of market systems, finance and the strengthening of farmer lobby power. Economic diversification in rural areas should also be promoted. A country such as Lesotho is economically tied to South Africa and food policies should focus on acquirement through income improvement programmes. The agricultural potential is also restricted in this country. Commercial farming (in parts of South Africa and Zimbabwe and Namibia) largely operates in Phase 3 the ‘Shultz–Ruttan’ environment. Some typical Phase 4 or ‘D. G. Johnson’ features are also emerging in South African agriculture. In these situations policy measures would focus on the restructuring of the farming sector and delivery systems to become more efficient, through privatisation, increasingly flexible and responsive to prices and changing consumer tastes and more competitive in the evolving global economic system. A wide spectrum of farm sizes can be expected to emerge inter alia to allow full-time and part-time farming. Emphasis would also be placed on the upgrading of the socio-economic position of farm workers. Due to the legacy of dualistic policies and racial based policies, political pressure to deal with redistributional issues are important. Land reform programmes, small farmer support and farmer settlement programmes and gender initiatives to benefit previously disadvantaged groups can thus be expected to be included in the policies and government programmes in these countries. This will again require ‘Johnson–Mellor’ type policies and interventions in the developing areas in these countries. Regional policies Getting domestic policies right must be viewed as a necessary step to provide a basis for agriculture to contribute to economic growth and transformation within a country. A regional development strategy will however be required in tandem with internal country based strategies in order to: (a) exploit the diversity in the region and unlock the comparative advantages and agricultural potential especially in the northern parts of the region to produce the food grains required to feed the growing regional market; (b) allow this diversity to stimulate rural development ant trade in the region; and (c) create a development path optimising the regional bargaining position vis a` vis international markets. Such a regional strategy will require: (a) political commitment from all countries in the region to promote the implementation of a regional policy framework; (b) investment programmes for the required infrastructural and communications networks in the region; (c) cooperation in agricultural research and development and technology transfer and human development, the reduction of trade barriers and trade movements; and (d) the development of a coordinated international trade policy framework for the region. Protectionist and internally focused policies on the other hand will restrict the important role of agriculture in the region.

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

503

Concluding remarks Agreement by Southern African Governments to consider southern Africa within a ‘Common Destiny’ scenario will set the broad parameters for a productive role for agriculture in the evolving regional development path. The economic and natural diversity in the region, the number of people depending on agriculture for a livelihood, and the potential of the agricultural sector to contribute significantly to food security and employment and income generation, cast an important, even leading role for agriculture in most countries in the region. This sector, however, is not yet performing in an optimal manner. New policies and strategies to promote the contribution of agriculture need to be developed and implemented as a matter of urgency. The main goals for agriculture policies in the region should not be to focus on output and increased food production per se, but rather to: (1) transform this sector to generate higher and sustainable farm incomes and increased rural per capita incomes and employment in order to improve food security; and (2) create the basis for the increased transfer of resources currently used in agriculture to other growing sectors of the economy on a regular and economic rational basis. These two goals capture the ultimate strategic role for agriculture in the Southern African region. The contribution of the agricultural sector in this transformation process will differ between countries within the region inter alia based on aspects of natural and comparative advantages and differing institutional capacities and capital resources, etc. but predominantly because of different phases of economic transformation within the region. Each country should thus identify the unique position and potential economic contribution of its agricultural sector: first, as it applies to its domestic needs and transformation processes; but equally important in terms of its contribution in the context of the evolving regionalism. Governments will have to play an important leading role to facilitate these processes and investment programmes in infrastructure, human resource development and trade promotion will be major ‘building blocks’ for Southern African regionalism. A coherent and aligned agricultural policy analysis and research system will contribute substantially to provide information and generate critical sets of ‘what-if’ scenarios to support policy makers, planners and farmers to pursue the vital role for agriculture in the region.

References Abalu, G. I. (1997) Food insecurity, rapid population growth and environmental degradation in eastern and southern Africa. Paper presented at the Symposium on Food Security. UN Economic Commission for Africa, Pretoria, South Africa. African Development Bank (1993) Economic integration in southern Africa. Carney, D. and Van Rooyen, C. J. (1996) Empowering small farmers through collective action: the case of technology development and transfer. Agrekon, December 1996. Csaki, C., Dams, Th. J., Metzer, D. and Van Zyl, J. (eds) (1992) Agricultural Restructuring in Southern Africa. IAAE Publication, Windhoek Printers, Windhoek, Namibia. Eicher, C. K. and Rukuni, M. (1994) Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Revolution. University of Zimbabwe Press, Harare, Zimbabwe. Hayamy, Y. and Ruttan, V. W. (1971) Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. John Hopkins Press, London. Johnston, B. F. and Mellor, J. W. (1961) The role of agriculture in economic development. American Economic Review 51, 567–593. Mellor, J. W. (1966) The Economics of Agricultural Development. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY. Mellor, J. W. (1986) Agriculture on the road to industrialization. In Development Strategies Reconsidered, eds J. P.

504

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: J van Rooyen and H Sigwele

Lewis and V. Kallab. US Third World Policy Perspectives No 5. Transaction Books for the Overseas Development Council, New Brunswick, NJ. Mosher, A. T. (1971) To Create a Modern Agriculture. Organization and Planning. Agricultural Development Council, New York. Roumasset, J. (1982) Rural food security. In Food Security: Theory, Policy and Perspectives from Asia and the Pacific Rim. Lexington Books. Rukuni, M. (1995) Getting agriculture moving in eastern and southern Africa and a framework for action. In A 20/20 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa, eds O. Badiane and C. L. Delgado. IFPRI, Washington, DC. SADC: FSTAU (1997) A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region. Sen, A. K. (1981) Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Clarendon Press, Oxford. Timmer, C. P. (1988) The agricultural transformation. In Handbook of Development Economics, eds H. B. Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan, Vol. 1, Chapter 8. North-Holland, Amsterdam. Tomich, T. P., Kilby, P. and Johnston, B. F. (1995) Transforming Agrarian Economies. Cornell University Press, Ithaca/London. Van Rooyen, C. J. (1997) A role for the agricultural sector in the southern African Region. Paper presented at the SADC: FSAU Policy Workshop, Harare, Zimbabwe and at the Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Sacramento, USA. Van Rooyen, C. J. and Ngqangweni, S. S. (1996) The equity-sharing model for agrarian reform in Southern Africa. Paper presented at the Southern African Business Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, March 1996. Van Rooyen, C. J., Ngqangweni, S. S. and Frost, D. (1996) Some considerations for a South African Food Policy. Agrekon 35(4). Vink, N. (1992) Presidential address. Conference of the Agricultural Economic Association of South Africa, October 1992. World Bank (1986) Poverty and Hunger: Issues and Options for Food Security in Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (1992) World Development Report. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Food Summit (1996) FAO, Vol. 1, Rome, Italy. World Development Indicators (1997) World Bank, Washington, DC.