The Man With The Sprained Brain
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The Man With the Sprained Brain Presented By: Rajan Thakur FIN 700
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quételet (22 February 1796 – 17 February 1874)
Born in a Belgian. Astronomer, mathematician, statistician and sociologist. He founded and directed the Brussels Observatory and was influential in introducing statistical methods to the social sciences. Along with the discovery of Bell Curve.
Bell Curve
Quetelet - The average man “Effect are proportional to causes.” - by Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet
“The greater the number of individuals observed, the more do peculiarities, whether physical or moral, become effaced, and allow the general facts to dominate, by which society exists and is preserved.” - by Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet
“If you torture the data long enough, the numbers will prove anything you want.”
Francis Galton (16 February 1822 – 17 January 1911)
Born in Birmingham, England. English Victorian polymath, anthropologist, eugenicist, geographer, meteorologist, proto-geneticist, and statistician. Produced over 340 papers and books in many subjects throughout his lifetime. He created the statistical concept of correlation and widely promoted regression toward the mean.
Eugenic A word whose Greek root means good or well. A notorious word, adopted by the Nazis associated with the extermination of millions of human beings. Labeled by Galton, a study of how talent persist through generation after generation in certain family.
The study of eugenic (Cont’d) Measurement was Galton’s hobby. some interesting experiment: Beauty map of England. Built a Anthropometric Laboratory in 1884. Tracking all kinds of possible character of human body. Spent several years in Africa for explorer and study. (sprained brain)
The study of eugenic (Cont’d)
The study of heredity has to do with the transmission of key characteristic from generation to generation. Under big influence of Quetelet. Use statistic methods in his research. By developing his study, he start to classify people by natural ability. The normal distribution was ubiquitous, especially in the measurement as body height and chest measurement. In 1869,Galton Published most important work-“Heredity Genius”. This book give a lot of evidence to prove that talent and eminence are hereditary attributes.
The study of eugenic (Cont’d)
Along with the study, Galton’s find that the law of the deviation from the mean stood stubbornly in his way. Then he had to explain differences within the normal distribution. Which is why the data arrange themselves into a bell curve. An extraordinary discovery: Moderate influences occur much more often than extreme influences, both good and bad. Which is regression to the mean. Some famous experiment to demonstrate his concept. Use Quincunx I and Quincunx II; Sweet Peas.
Regression to the mean Regression to the mean is dynamic. Motivates almost every variety of risktaking and forecasting. Fear or greed has encouraged the crowd to drive the stock’s price away from its intrinsic value to which it is certain to return.
--by the author
The concept of correlation
Galton’s another great contribution was the discovery of corelation.
Definition A measurement of how closely any two series vary relative to one another. It indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables.
The concept of correlation
Formula The correlation coefficient ρX, Y between two random variables X and Y with expected values
μX and μY and standard deviations σX and σY is defined as:
The concept of correlation
where E is the expected value operator and cov means covariance. A widely used alternative notation is
Calculating a weighted correlation
Weighted Mean:
Weighted Covariance
Calculating a weighted correlation
Weighted Correlation
The significant meaning
Galton’s work reflects that the study of probability is essential tool for the analysis of everything. What Galton and these other innovators learned along the way led ultimately to the emergence of today’s complex instruments for the control and management of risk in both business and finance.
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quételet (22 February 1796 – 17 February 1874)
Born in a Belgian. Astronomer, mathematician, statistician and sociologist. He founded and directed the Brussels Observatory and was influential in introducing statistical methods to the social sciences. Along with the discovery of Bell Curve.
Bell Curve
Quetelet - The average man “Effect are proportional to causes.” - by Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet
“The greater the number of individuals observed, the more do peculiarities, whether physical or moral, become effaced, and allow the general facts to dominate, by which society exists and is preserved.” - by Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet
“If you torture the data long enough, the numbers will prove anything you want.”
Francis Galton (16 February 1822 – 17 January 1911)
Born in Birmingham, England. English Victorian polymath, anthropologist, eugenicist, geographer, meteorologist, proto-geneticist, and statistician. Produced over 340 papers and books in many subjects throughout his lifetime. He created the statistical concept of correlation and widely promoted regression toward the mean.
Eugenic A word whose Greek root means good or well. A notorious word, adopted by the Nazis associated with the extermination of millions of human beings. Labeled by Galton, a study of how talent persist through generation after generation in certain family.
The study of eugenic (Cont’d) Measurement was Galton’s hobby. some interesting experiment: Beauty map of England. Built a Anthropometric Laboratory in 1884. Tracking all kinds of possible character of human body. Spent several years in Africa for explorer and study. (sprained brain)
The study of eugenic (Cont’d)
The study of heredity has to do with the transmission of key characteristic from generation to generation. Under big influence of Quetelet. Use statistic methods in his research. By developing his study, he start to classify people by natural ability. The normal distribution was ubiquitous, especially in the measurement as body height and chest measurement. In 1869,Galton Published most important work-“Heredity Genius”. This book give a lot of evidence to prove that talent and eminence are hereditary attributes.
The study of eugenic (Cont’d)
Along with the study, Galton’s find that the law of the deviation from the mean stood stubbornly in his way. Then he had to explain differences within the normal distribution. Which is why the data arrange themselves into a bell curve. An extraordinary discovery: Moderate influences occur much more often than extreme influences, both good and bad. Which is regression to the mean. Some famous experiment to demonstrate his concept. Use Quincunx I and Quincunx II; Sweet Peas.
Regression to the mean Regression to the mean is dynamic. Motivates almost every variety of risktaking and forecasting. Fear or greed has encouraged the crowd to drive the stock’s price away from its intrinsic value to which it is certain to return.
--by the author
The concept of correlation
Galton’s another great contribution was the discovery of corelation.
Definition A measurement of how closely any two series vary relative to one another. It indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables.
The concept of correlation
Formula The correlation coefficient ρX, Y between two random variables X and Y with expected values
μX and μY and standard deviations σX and σY is defined as:
The concept of correlation
where E is the expected value operator and cov means covariance. A widely used alternative notation is
Calculating a weighted correlation
Weighted Mean:
Weighted Covariance
Calculating a weighted correlation
Weighted Correlation
The significant meaning
Galton’s work reflects that the study of probability is essential tool for the analysis of everything. What Galton and these other innovators learned along the way led ultimately to the emergence of today’s complex instruments for the control and management of risk in both business and finance.
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