The Future Of Swm
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Waste Management 2030 +
The future of waste management sector Antonis Mavropoulos ISWA STC Chair
Scope of lecture • To outline main forces that will shape the future of SWM • To highlight their interaction • To put major challenges for discussion
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Shaping the future The continuously increasing complexity: • of our world • of SWM
• • • • • •
The rise of the sleeping giants The global IT network and its impacts Resource scarcity + food Hi-Tech / New products The emerging new lifestyles Climate Change + Energy revolution A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Where do we stand today? • There are islands of advanced SWM in an ocean of uncontrolled landfills • There are technologies to face the problem • Broad recognition of the disposal problem • Broad recognition of recycling • Initiatives for waste reduction
Source: From Waste to Resource, 2006 Waste Survey, Veolia
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Dimensions of the problem
UK Data • 1/3 of food is thrown away • 10 billions €/year • 420 €/ household • Body weight waste food / year Source: WRAP, The food we waste, 2008
Source: C. Visvanathan Resource Circulation in Asia: Practical Challenges in Setting up Recycling Industries, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
• 46.000 plastic pieces/ sq. mile • 6 kg of marine litter/ kg of plankton • 10% of the global plastic production ends up in the ocean • 5-10 m plastic layers • 7.000.000 tons in place
Source: Algalita Marine Research Foundation, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
1. Waste volume will increase • GDP and consumption will rise • WtE & MBT will be expanded • Will it be enough to resolve the problem? • Still no evidence for decoupling Source: John Hawksworth, PWC, The world in 2050, 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Is the EU SWM the best?
According the current level of prices it is four (4) times more expensive to burn waste in Netherlands than to send it for “recycling” in China NY Times, 28-9-2009 Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The “China” syndrome What will be the European Waste Management System without China?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • Even the best systems are not self-capable to face the increasing SW volumes • Increasing volumes and increasing collection rates will create disposal crisis in certain countries or cities • New uncontrolled landfills will be created • New landfills will be the dominant method worldwide • Waste trafficking will be a major problem • Historical waste will be an important problem A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
2. Composition will keep changing • • • • •
Biotechnology Nanotechnology Combination of IT with them New energy products for home, personal use New IT products
Source: Derek Woodgate, Future frequencies, 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
New products will be rapidly consumed and create new waste globally A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
A more general problem Product cycle
Waste management cycle
Dt 2
Dt 1
It starts later, when there are waste (Dt1) It keeps much more (Dt2)
Targets Dt1 0 Dt2 0 A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The e-waste example Global sales of e-waste market Is the problem solved?
Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • New products come faster than their sound management as waste • More waste streams must have separate management for 3R purposes • Waste Prevention & Eco-design are key - issues • SWM Complexity will increase exponentially • Differences between countries will be the driving force for waste trafficking • Current market conditions are not capable to face the problem A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
3. Resource scarcity
Source: European Parliament, Eco-innovation - putting the EU on the path to a resource and energy efficient economy, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The example of oil GLOBAL OIL RESERVES 1980 – 2009 (billions barrels)
Reserves were few Prices grew exponentially Poor oil fields became attractive New extraction methods went feasible Reserves doubled They are going to be spent
Extraction costs went higher
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The break – even points Cost/ tn
Extraction Cost/ tn Landfill mining Cost/ tn
Recycling Cost/ tn
Time Time
Extraction cost/ tn
Source: Dennis Meadows, Perspectives on Limits to Growth 37 Years Later, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Recycling and markets Production stopped Prices dropped exponentially Some recycling programs stopped Stocks piled up They went for disposal
Is it sustainable? 100,00 90,00 70,00 60,00
Lower price level
50,00
Upper price level
40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00
no v08 dé c08 ja nv -0 9 fé vr -0 9
ju in -0 8 ju il08 ao ût -0 8 se pt -0 8 oc t-0 8
av r-0 8 m ai -0 8
0,00
ja nv -0 8 fé vr -0 8 m ar s08
Recycled paper price, France
Price in Euro
80,00
Timeline 90,00 80,00 70,00 Price in Euro
Recycled paper price, Germany
60,00 50,00
Lower price level
40,00
Upper price level
30,00 20,00 10,00
Timeline
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
11/03/2009
11/02/2009
11/01/2009
11/12/2008
11/11/2008
11/10/2008
11/09/2008
11/08/2008
11/07/2008
11/06/2008
11/05/2008
11/04/2008
11/03/2008
11/02/2008
11/01/2008
0,00
Consequences to SWM • Reuse, Recycling, Recovery (3R) will be more and more important for survival on Planet Earth • New recycling & recovery technologies will be discovered - Current non feasible technologies will be feasible later (e.g. landfill mining) • Market turbulences drive recyclables to landfills • Market tools are not enough to sustain a high level of recycling
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
4. GHGs & Energy Revolution
Source: John Hawksworth, PWC, The world in 2050, 2008 Source: Hydrogen Economy, 2004
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The future of WtE • • • •
Better energy efficiency Carbon Capture + Sequestration New conversion techniques Scalability & Decentralization
Source: R.B. Williams§ K. Kornbluth, P.A. Erickson, B.M. Jenkins and M.C. Gildart, , Estimates of Hydrogen Production Potential and Costs from California Landfills
Source: IES, Road to zero waste, SBC Forum 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Hydrogen from waste?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • WtE technologies will be expanded and become more energy efficient • More conversion technologies will be available • Hydrogen produced by waste is a major challenge • Carbon footprints should be reduced with carbon capture & storage (CCS) techniques • Collection and transfer systems will be refueled with new fuels
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
5. Robots are coming…
1998
Source: http://www.dustbot.org/index.php?menu=home , 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • Robots will be used extensively for collection and recycling • Robots can be used for landfill purposes • ROBOTS in general make a. b. c. d.
less waste lower costs fewer jobs more mistakes (now)
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
How far is that future?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The future of waste management sector Antonis Mavropoulos ISWA STC Chair
Scope of lecture • To outline main forces that will shape the future of SWM • To highlight their interaction • To put major challenges for discussion
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Shaping the future The continuously increasing complexity: • of our world • of SWM
• • • • • •
The rise of the sleeping giants The global IT network and its impacts Resource scarcity + food Hi-Tech / New products The emerging new lifestyles Climate Change + Energy revolution A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Where do we stand today? • There are islands of advanced SWM in an ocean of uncontrolled landfills • There are technologies to face the problem • Broad recognition of the disposal problem • Broad recognition of recycling • Initiatives for waste reduction
Source: From Waste to Resource, 2006 Waste Survey, Veolia
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Dimensions of the problem
UK Data • 1/3 of food is thrown away • 10 billions €/year • 420 €/ household • Body weight waste food / year Source: WRAP, The food we waste, 2008
Source: C. Visvanathan Resource Circulation in Asia: Practical Challenges in Setting up Recycling Industries, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
• 46.000 plastic pieces/ sq. mile • 6 kg of marine litter/ kg of plankton • 10% of the global plastic production ends up in the ocean • 5-10 m plastic layers • 7.000.000 tons in place
Source: Algalita Marine Research Foundation, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
1. Waste volume will increase • GDP and consumption will rise • WtE & MBT will be expanded • Will it be enough to resolve the problem? • Still no evidence for decoupling Source: John Hawksworth, PWC, The world in 2050, 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Is the EU SWM the best?
According the current level of prices it is four (4) times more expensive to burn waste in Netherlands than to send it for “recycling” in China NY Times, 28-9-2009 Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The “China” syndrome What will be the European Waste Management System without China?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • Even the best systems are not self-capable to face the increasing SW volumes • Increasing volumes and increasing collection rates will create disposal crisis in certain countries or cities • New uncontrolled landfills will be created • New landfills will be the dominant method worldwide • Waste trafficking will be a major problem • Historical waste will be an important problem A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
2. Composition will keep changing • • • • •
Biotechnology Nanotechnology Combination of IT with them New energy products for home, personal use New IT products
Source: Derek Woodgate, Future frequencies, 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
New products will be rapidly consumed and create new waste globally A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
A more general problem Product cycle
Waste management cycle
Dt 2
Dt 1
It starts later, when there are waste (Dt1) It keeps much more (Dt2)
Targets Dt1 0 Dt2 0 A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The e-waste example Global sales of e-waste market Is the problem solved?
Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • New products come faster than their sound management as waste • More waste streams must have separate management for 3R purposes • Waste Prevention & Eco-design are key - issues • SWM Complexity will increase exponentially • Differences between countries will be the driving force for waste trafficking • Current market conditions are not capable to face the problem A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
3. Resource scarcity
Source: European Parliament, Eco-innovation - putting the EU on the path to a resource and energy efficient economy, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The example of oil GLOBAL OIL RESERVES 1980 – 2009 (billions barrels)
Reserves were few Prices grew exponentially Poor oil fields became attractive New extraction methods went feasible Reserves doubled They are going to be spent
Extraction costs went higher
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The break – even points Cost/ tn
Extraction Cost/ tn Landfill mining Cost/ tn
Recycling Cost/ tn
Time Time
Extraction cost/ tn
Source: Dennis Meadows, Perspectives on Limits to Growth 37 Years Later, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Recycling and markets Production stopped Prices dropped exponentially Some recycling programs stopped Stocks piled up They went for disposal
Is it sustainable? 100,00 90,00 70,00 60,00
Lower price level
50,00
Upper price level
40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00
no v08 dé c08 ja nv -0 9 fé vr -0 9
ju in -0 8 ju il08 ao ût -0 8 se pt -0 8 oc t-0 8
av r-0 8 m ai -0 8
0,00
ja nv -0 8 fé vr -0 8 m ar s08
Recycled paper price, France
Price in Euro
80,00
Timeline 90,00 80,00 70,00 Price in Euro
Recycled paper price, Germany
60,00 50,00
Lower price level
40,00
Upper price level
30,00 20,00 10,00
Timeline
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
11/03/2009
11/02/2009
11/01/2009
11/12/2008
11/11/2008
11/10/2008
11/09/2008
11/08/2008
11/07/2008
11/06/2008
11/05/2008
11/04/2008
11/03/2008
11/02/2008
11/01/2008
0,00
Consequences to SWM • Reuse, Recycling, Recovery (3R) will be more and more important for survival on Planet Earth • New recycling & recovery technologies will be discovered - Current non feasible technologies will be feasible later (e.g. landfill mining) • Market turbulences drive recyclables to landfills • Market tools are not enough to sustain a high level of recycling
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
4. GHGs & Energy Revolution
Source: John Hawksworth, PWC, The world in 2050, 2008 Source: Hydrogen Economy, 2004
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The future of WtE • • • •
Better energy efficiency Carbon Capture + Sequestration New conversion techniques Scalability & Decentralization
Source: R.B. Williams§ K. Kornbluth, P.A. Erickson, B.M. Jenkins and M.C. Gildart, , Estimates of Hydrogen Production Potential and Costs from California Landfills
Source: IES, Road to zero waste, SBC Forum 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Hydrogen from waste?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • WtE technologies will be expanded and become more energy efficient • More conversion technologies will be available • Hydrogen produced by waste is a major challenge • Carbon footprints should be reduced with carbon capture & storage (CCS) techniques • Collection and transfer systems will be refueled with new fuels
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
5. Robots are coming…
1998
Source: http://www.dustbot.org/index.php?menu=home , 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Consequences to SWM • Robots will be used extensively for collection and recycling • Robots can be used for landfill purposes • ROBOTS in general make a. b. c. d.
less waste lower costs fewer jobs more mistakes (now)
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
How far is that future?
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
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