Thayer Vietnam: Nine Dissidents On Trial

Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Haiphong Six on Trial Carlyle A. Thayer October 8, 2009

[client name withheld] Question: I'm writing in regard to the trials of the nine "dissidents" here in VN this week, and wondering what you think of this. Is there any technical reason that you know of why they would put all nine on trial in one week? Do you think it's intentional, to send a message? Or just the wheels of justice turning in Vietnam without an explanation? More broadly, what would you say is the significance of these trials and the likely sentencing of all nine to prison terms? These people were all affiliated with 8406, apparently. Is this group done? ANSWER: The trials of the Haiphong Six and the separate trials of three other dissidents have been bundled together for maximum deterrent effect this week. The evidence of the past twelve to eighteen months indicates that ideological conservatives and the security bloc within the Communist Party of Vietnam have ratcheted up repression of pro-democracy activists in an effort to clamp down on public dissent. The bulk of those on trial are associated with Bloc 8406 whose leadership was effectively decapitated in 2007 through arrests and trials. Those promoting repression have been unnerved both by the revival of dissent by Bloc 8406 members and by the growing coalescence of dissent across different issues such as human right, bauxite mining and relations with China. The initial three year sentences to two individual dissenters is especially harsh. It is no coincidence that renewed repression coincides with advance preparations for the eleventh party congress. Party conservatives are trying to stem pressures to step up the pace of political reform in order to remain in power.