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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
INTRODUCTION Energy being a strategic commodity plays a significant role in economic development of a country. Energy systems in India have evolved over last six decades along with country’s economic development, supporting the aspiration of 1.2 billion people, within the framework of democratic polity, globally integrated economy and environmentally sensitive regime. Ever increasing demand of energy has posed tremendous pressure on its limited resources and has necessitated optimum use of its resources. [1]
RESERVES AND POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION 1.1 Coal and Lignite Coal deposits are mainly confined to eastern and south central parts of the country. The states of Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra account for 98.58 % of the total coal reserves in the country. The State of Jharkhand had the maximum share (26.29%) in the overall reserves of coal in the country as on 31st March 2016 followed by the State of Odisha (24.58%) (Table 1.1).
As on 31.03.16, the estimated reserves of coal were 308.80 billion tonnes, an addition of 2.20 billion tonnes over the last year (Table 1.1). There has been an increase of 0.7% in the estimated coal reserves during the year 2015-16 with Chattisgarh accounting for the maximum increase of 2.05%. [2]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 1
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
The estimated total reserves of lignite as on 31.03.16 was 44.59 billion Tonnes against 44.12 billion tonnes on 31.03.15
1.2 Petroleum and Natural gas The estimated reserves of crude oil in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 621.10 million tonnes (MT) (Table 1.2) against 635.60 million tonnes on 31.03.2015.
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 2
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Geographical distribution of Crude oil indicates that the maximum reserves are in the Western Offshore (39.79%) followed by Assam (25.89%), whereas the maximum reserves of Natural Gas are in the Eastern Offshore (36.79%) followed by Western offshore (23.95%). [3]
There was decrease of 2.28% in the estimated reserve of crude oil for the country as a whole during 2015-16 as compared to the position a year ago. During the same period, estimated reserves of crude oil in Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Assam decreased by 44.75, 17.04 and 2.11 % respectively, while the same in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Western Offshore and Eastern Offshore increased by 18.42 %, 15.30% , 2.58%, 1.88% and 0.59% respectively.
The estimated reserves of Natural Gas in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 1227.23 Billion
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 3
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Cubic
Meters
(BCM)
as
against
1251.90
BCM
as
on
31.03.2015
1.3 Renewable energy sources There is high potential for generation of renewable energy from various sources- wind, solar, biomass, small hydro and cogeneration bagasse.
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 4
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
The total potential for renewable power generation in the country as on 31.03.16 is estimated at 1198856 MW (Table 1.3). This includes wind power potential of 102788 MW (8.57%) at 80m hub height, wind power potential of 302235 MW (25.21%) at 100 m hub height, SHP (small-hydro power) potential of 19749 MW (1.65%), Biomass power of 17,538 MW (1.46%), 5000 MW (0.42%) from bagasse-based cogeneration in sugar mills, 2556 MW (0.21%) from waste to energy and solar power potential of 748990 MW (62.48%).
The geographic distribution of the estimated potential of renewable power as on 31.03.2016 reveals that Rajasthan has the highest share of about 14% (167276 MW), followed by Gujarat with 13% share (157158 MW) and Maharashtra with 10% share (119893MW), mainly on account of solar power potential. [2]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 5
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
Sankey Diagram (2015-16): The concept of data visualization in the digital age has revived interest in a style of chart called a Sankey diagram. This style of diagram makes it easy to see the dominant flows within a system and highlights where losses occur.
The Sankey diagram is very useful tool to represent an entire input and output energy flow in energy system after carrying out energy balance calculation. The thicker the line, the greater the amount of energy involved.
The data of Energy Balance (Table 7.2) is used to construct the Sankey diagram, in which flows of energy are traced from energy sources to end-use consumption. The resulting diagram provides a convenient and clear snapshot of existing energy transformations in India which can usefully be compared with a similar global analysis. It gives a basis for examining and communicating future energy scenarios. [4]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 6
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 7
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 PROPOSALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES BY 2047 Level 1: Only a marginal improvement in T&D losses is assumed, which is currently at 22.69%on all India basis as of May 2013. Owing to financial losses of distribution utilities, investments towards strengthening the grid are minimal and hence the reduction in T&D losses would not be significant and will only reduce to 15.94% till 2047 out of which distribution losses will be 10.94% and transmission loss will reduce to 5% following business as usual approach. Level 2: Although the 14 Smart Grid pilot projects demonstrate the benefits of Smart Grid technologies at the pilot scale, a pan India large-scale deployment of Smart Grid technologies is assumed to happen at a relatively low rate. Projecting based on conservative estimates of leveraging the Smart Grid technologies T&D losses would reduce to approximately 11% by 2042 and will further reduce to 10% till 2047 out of which transmission loss will be 4% and distribution loss will be 6% by 2047. [9] Level 3: It is assumed that the investments are made as envisaged in the India Smart Grid Roadmap1, towards achieving the stated goals of reduction in losses, demand response and integration of renewable energy. Building on the success of the pilot projects, various technologies are leveraged under a clean energy policy drive to achieve a financially viable and sustainable Smart Grids. The T&D losses would reduce to below 12% by 2027 out of which distribution losses will be 7% and transmission losses will be 5% and would reach around the global benchmark of 7% by 2047 of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will be 4%. Level 4: An aggressive drive is adopted by the dynamic 21st century India, towards achieving sustainable economic growth, energy independence and energy security. Reforms in the transmission and distribution sectors are carried out via elimination of cross-subsidies, innovative and competitive tariff structures, increased private participation in electricity business, electric vehicles, real-time energy markets, bi-directional flow of electricity and prosumer enablement. The global benchmark of 7% T&D losses is achieved by 2042 of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will be 4% and maintained thereafter till 2047. [5]
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE Level 1: No planned generation plants with CCS till 2025 and rate of CCS technology deployment will be less. Generation with CCS usage till 2025 will be negligible and will start
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 8
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 to increase but at very less pace due to lack of efficient and cheap technology, generation with CCS usage will increase to 8GW till 2047. Level 2: Generation with CCS usage will be deployed at a slow rate. India will follow projections for US with some time lag. Generation with CCS in 2022 will be around 1 GW and will reach to 35GW till 2047. Level 3: The amount of CCS-equipped capacity will grow in India. The absolute growth rate in capture-equipped capacity occurs between 2030 and 2040. Going by IEA road map for CCS technology 2013, India will target generation capacity with CCS of 3 GW till 2022 and will increase to 80GW till 2047. Level 4: More generation plants with CCS technology will be deployed which will be result of technology up gradation and reduction in capital requirement. India will begin constructing their own demonstration scale facilities and considering more ambitious CCS projects. India will target generation capacity with CCS of 5GW till 2022 and will increase to 90GW till 2047. [6]
Level 1: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is 12% of total installed capacity as on May, 2013 and renewable energy capacity is expected to increase to 49 GW by 2022 and 91 GW by 2047. With limited investments in research and development of low cost Page | 28 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Storage Capacity (GW) and efficient battery technologies, the cost of batteries remain high resulting in less commercialization, poor adoption of battery storage. DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 9
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Pumped storage hydro power continues to dominate the energy storage in India. Total grid connected storage in India will be 5GW by 2022 of which pump hydro storage is just above 4 GW growing to 8GW by 2032 and 10GW by 2042 and 12GW by 2047. [10]
Level 2: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 77 GW by 2022 and 466 GW by 2047. V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technologies will be maturing to offer storage solutions as large fleet of connected EV’s (Electrical Vehicle’s) will operate in VPP (Virtual Power Plant) mode. More share of pump storage will be developed. Various storage technologies on pilot basis will be employed in test beds at various parts of India. Hybrid solution of solar and batteries will be employed. Though the development of storage market will be in rising trend but it will be at slower pace. Total grid connected storage in India will be 10GW by 2022, growing to 15GW by 2032, 20GW by 2042 and 22GW by 2047. Level 3: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 91 GW by 2022 and 817 GW by 2047. In addition to new technologies envisaged for level 2, partnership between India and other countries for smart grids and energy storage technologies will emerge and brings out some new and low cost batteries with higher performance parameters. Application of energy storage batteries on both the utility side and customer side (industrial and commercial) of the meter. Wind farms uses CAES (compresses air energy storage) for storage of energy during off peak hours, solar panel uses molten salt batteries for storage of energy during their off peak hours. Opportunities for new project development and manufacturing emerges in India. Telecom sector will also take a lead in replacing their diesel generators with hybrid solution of solar and batteries. Total grid connected storage in India will be 15GW by 2022, 25GW by 2032, 30GW by 2042 and 32GW by 2047. Level 4: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 120 GW by 2022 and 1402 GW by 2047. India will attain its potential of 20 GW by 2020. As per India Smart Grid roadmap, micro grids will be implemented in 10,000 villages and 100 smart cities till 2027, batteries will play a major role in these deployment. Wind mills will be integrated with hydro pump storage systems to operate them. Flywheel technology for energy storage will become mature with time and will be cost effective which will ultimately lead to more commercialization of this technology. There will be opportunities for partnering with world class manufacturing and system integration companies that can leverage domestic manufacturing capabilities. Total grid connected storage in India will be 20GW by 2022, growing to 30GW by 2032, 40GW by 2042 and 45GW by 2047. [9] DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 10
INTRODUCTION Energy being a strategic commodity plays a significant role in economic development of a country. Energy systems in India have evolved over last six decades along with country’s economic development, supporting the aspiration of 1.2 billion people, within the framework of democratic polity, globally integrated economy and environmentally sensitive regime. Ever increasing demand of energy has posed tremendous pressure on its limited resources and has necessitated optimum use of its resources. [1]
RESERVES AND POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION 1.1 Coal and Lignite Coal deposits are mainly confined to eastern and south central parts of the country. The states of Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra account for 98.58 % of the total coal reserves in the country. The State of Jharkhand had the maximum share (26.29%) in the overall reserves of coal in the country as on 31st March 2016 followed by the State of Odisha (24.58%) (Table 1.1).
As on 31.03.16, the estimated reserves of coal were 308.80 billion tonnes, an addition of 2.20 billion tonnes over the last year (Table 1.1). There has been an increase of 0.7% in the estimated coal reserves during the year 2015-16 with Chattisgarh accounting for the maximum increase of 2.05%. [2]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 1
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
The estimated total reserves of lignite as on 31.03.16 was 44.59 billion Tonnes against 44.12 billion tonnes on 31.03.15
1.2 Petroleum and Natural gas The estimated reserves of crude oil in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 621.10 million tonnes (MT) (Table 1.2) against 635.60 million tonnes on 31.03.2015.
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 2
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Geographical distribution of Crude oil indicates that the maximum reserves are in the Western Offshore (39.79%) followed by Assam (25.89%), whereas the maximum reserves of Natural Gas are in the Eastern Offshore (36.79%) followed by Western offshore (23.95%). [3]
There was decrease of 2.28% in the estimated reserve of crude oil for the country as a whole during 2015-16 as compared to the position a year ago. During the same period, estimated reserves of crude oil in Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Assam decreased by 44.75, 17.04 and 2.11 % respectively, while the same in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Western Offshore and Eastern Offshore increased by 18.42 %, 15.30% , 2.58%, 1.88% and 0.59% respectively.
The estimated reserves of Natural Gas in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 1227.23 Billion
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 3
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Cubic
Meters
(BCM)
as
against
1251.90
BCM
as
on
31.03.2015
1.3 Renewable energy sources There is high potential for generation of renewable energy from various sources- wind, solar, biomass, small hydro and cogeneration bagasse.
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 4
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
The total potential for renewable power generation in the country as on 31.03.16 is estimated at 1198856 MW (Table 1.3). This includes wind power potential of 102788 MW (8.57%) at 80m hub height, wind power potential of 302235 MW (25.21%) at 100 m hub height, SHP (small-hydro power) potential of 19749 MW (1.65%), Biomass power of 17,538 MW (1.46%), 5000 MW (0.42%) from bagasse-based cogeneration in sugar mills, 2556 MW (0.21%) from waste to energy and solar power potential of 748990 MW (62.48%).
The geographic distribution of the estimated potential of renewable power as on 31.03.2016 reveals that Rajasthan has the highest share of about 14% (167276 MW), followed by Gujarat with 13% share (157158 MW) and Maharashtra with 10% share (119893MW), mainly on account of solar power potential. [2]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 5
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
Sankey Diagram (2015-16): The concept of data visualization in the digital age has revived interest in a style of chart called a Sankey diagram. This style of diagram makes it easy to see the dominant flows within a system and highlights where losses occur.
The Sankey diagram is very useful tool to represent an entire input and output energy flow in energy system after carrying out energy balance calculation. The thicker the line, the greater the amount of energy involved.
The data of Energy Balance (Table 7.2) is used to construct the Sankey diagram, in which flows of energy are traced from energy sources to end-use consumption. The resulting diagram provides a convenient and clear snapshot of existing energy transformations in India which can usefully be compared with a similar global analysis. It gives a basis for examining and communicating future energy scenarios. [4]
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 6
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 7
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 PROPOSALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES BY 2047 Level 1: Only a marginal improvement in T&D losses is assumed, which is currently at 22.69%on all India basis as of May 2013. Owing to financial losses of distribution utilities, investments towards strengthening the grid are minimal and hence the reduction in T&D losses would not be significant and will only reduce to 15.94% till 2047 out of which distribution losses will be 10.94% and transmission loss will reduce to 5% following business as usual approach. Level 2: Although the 14 Smart Grid pilot projects demonstrate the benefits of Smart Grid technologies at the pilot scale, a pan India large-scale deployment of Smart Grid technologies is assumed to happen at a relatively low rate. Projecting based on conservative estimates of leveraging the Smart Grid technologies T&D losses would reduce to approximately 11% by 2042 and will further reduce to 10% till 2047 out of which transmission loss will be 4% and distribution loss will be 6% by 2047. [9] Level 3: It is assumed that the investments are made as envisaged in the India Smart Grid Roadmap1, towards achieving the stated goals of reduction in losses, demand response and integration of renewable energy. Building on the success of the pilot projects, various technologies are leveraged under a clean energy policy drive to achieve a financially viable and sustainable Smart Grids. The T&D losses would reduce to below 12% by 2027 out of which distribution losses will be 7% and transmission losses will be 5% and would reach around the global benchmark of 7% by 2047 of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will be 4%. Level 4: An aggressive drive is adopted by the dynamic 21st century India, towards achieving sustainable economic growth, energy independence and energy security. Reforms in the transmission and distribution sectors are carried out via elimination of cross-subsidies, innovative and competitive tariff structures, increased private participation in electricity business, electric vehicles, real-time energy markets, bi-directional flow of electricity and prosumer enablement. The global benchmark of 7% T&D losses is achieved by 2042 of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will be 4% and maintained thereafter till 2047. [5]
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE Level 1: No planned generation plants with CCS till 2025 and rate of CCS technology deployment will be less. Generation with CCS usage till 2025 will be negligible and will start
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 8
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 to increase but at very less pace due to lack of efficient and cheap technology, generation with CCS usage will increase to 8GW till 2047. Level 2: Generation with CCS usage will be deployed at a slow rate. India will follow projections for US with some time lag. Generation with CCS in 2022 will be around 1 GW and will reach to 35GW till 2047. Level 3: The amount of CCS-equipped capacity will grow in India. The absolute growth rate in capture-equipped capacity occurs between 2030 and 2040. Going by IEA road map for CCS technology 2013, India will target generation capacity with CCS of 3 GW till 2022 and will increase to 80GW till 2047. Level 4: More generation plants with CCS technology will be deployed which will be result of technology up gradation and reduction in capital requirement. India will begin constructing their own demonstration scale facilities and considering more ambitious CCS projects. India will target generation capacity with CCS of 5GW till 2022 and will increase to 90GW till 2047. [6]
Level 1: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is 12% of total installed capacity as on May, 2013 and renewable energy capacity is expected to increase to 49 GW by 2022 and 91 GW by 2047. With limited investments in research and development of low cost Page | 28 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Storage Capacity (GW) and efficient battery technologies, the cost of batteries remain high resulting in less commercialization, poor adoption of battery storage. DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 9
DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030 Pumped storage hydro power continues to dominate the energy storage in India. Total grid connected storage in India will be 5GW by 2022 of which pump hydro storage is just above 4 GW growing to 8GW by 2032 and 10GW by 2042 and 12GW by 2047. [10]
Level 2: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 77 GW by 2022 and 466 GW by 2047. V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technologies will be maturing to offer storage solutions as large fleet of connected EV’s (Electrical Vehicle’s) will operate in VPP (Virtual Power Plant) mode. More share of pump storage will be developed. Various storage technologies on pilot basis will be employed in test beds at various parts of India. Hybrid solution of solar and batteries will be employed. Though the development of storage market will be in rising trend but it will be at slower pace. Total grid connected storage in India will be 10GW by 2022, growing to 15GW by 2032, 20GW by 2042 and 22GW by 2047. Level 3: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 91 GW by 2022 and 817 GW by 2047. In addition to new technologies envisaged for level 2, partnership between India and other countries for smart grids and energy storage technologies will emerge and brings out some new and low cost batteries with higher performance parameters. Application of energy storage batteries on both the utility side and customer side (industrial and commercial) of the meter. Wind farms uses CAES (compresses air energy storage) for storage of energy during off peak hours, solar panel uses molten salt batteries for storage of energy during their off peak hours. Opportunities for new project development and manufacturing emerges in India. Telecom sector will also take a lead in replacing their diesel generators with hybrid solution of solar and batteries. Total grid connected storage in India will be 15GW by 2022, 25GW by 2032, 30GW by 2042 and 32GW by 2047. Level 4: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 120 GW by 2022 and 1402 GW by 2047. India will attain its potential of 20 GW by 2020. As per India Smart Grid roadmap, micro grids will be implemented in 10,000 villages and 100 smart cities till 2027, batteries will play a major role in these deployment. Wind mills will be integrated with hydro pump storage systems to operate them. Flywheel technology for energy storage will become mature with time and will be cost effective which will ultimately lead to more commercialization of this technology. There will be opportunities for partnering with world class manufacturing and system integration companies that can leverage domestic manufacturing capabilities. Total grid connected storage in India will be 20GW by 2022, growing to 30GW by 2032, 40GW by 2042 and 45GW by 2047. [9] DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, RVCE, BENGALURU
PAGE 10
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