Tara C. Kandpal

Refresher Training Course on Thermal and Photovoltaic Applications of Solar Energy Preliminary Inputs for Discussion Session-II

Tara C. Kandpal

Centre for Energy Studies Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Hauz khas, New Delhi -

Important Issues for Discussion • Potential End Uses and Their Prioritization (if desirable??) • Identification of Niche Identified End-Use

Areas

of

Each

• Assessment of Maximum Utilization Potential • Barriers and Incentives (Causal factors) to Dissemination •

Policy Measures (what?, how?, when?, where?) (R&D support, financial/fiscal incentives, regulations, quality control etc)

S.No.

Year

1

Reported Cumulative Achievements Solar water heating systems (m2)

Solar cookers (No.)

Solar home systems (No.)

PV lanterns (No.)

1983

------

18000

------

------

2

1984

12283

30000

------

------

3

1985

24147

46000

------

------

4

1986

44392

72000

------

------

5

1987

66307

92000

------

------

6

1988

88836

1.1 lakh

------

------

7

1989

1 lakh

------

------

------

8

1990

------

1.77 lakh

------

------

9

1991

1.9 lakh

2.01 lakh

5050

------

10

1992

2.29 lakh

2.3 lakh

11600

11

1995

------

4.1 lakh

------

12

1996

------

4.2 lakh

23000

50000

13

1997

------

------

------

------

14

1998

------

------

------

------

15

1999

4.5 lakh

4.62 lakh

------

------

16

2000

5.5 lakh

------

------

------

17

2001

6 lakh

------

------

------

18

2002

6.8 lakh

5.3 lakh

------

------

19

2003

8 lakh

------

------

------

20

2004

10 lakh

------

------

------

21

2005

15 lakh

5.99 lakh

342607

538718

22

2006

16.6 lakh

6.03 lakh

301603

463058

Photovoltaic Applications • Should we (society/country) prioritize amongst potential PV (or solar thermal) applications? (allocation of funds and efforts) – Utilization potential – Technological preparedness (at global level and its dynamics) – Equity, gender, quality of life and other relevant issues – Any other dimensions?

Photovoltaic Applications • Technology development for cost reduction and conversion efficiency enhancement • System design considerations • Enhanced acceptance due to increased unit cost of electricity produced using other resourcetechnology combinations • Identify niche areas, facilitate appropriate financing strategies, provide financial/fiscal incentives, understanding potential barriers (besides cost) and resolving the same.

Photovoltaic Applications • Potential of reduction in cost of - conversion/collection - storage - electronics and support structure etc • Effective system design, site selection, operation and maintenance • Consolidating demand (if possible) • Eliminate subsidy given to competing options

Photovoltaic Applications End Use Domestic Lighting SHS Lantern Mini-grid Street Lighting Water Pumping Grid-connected Power Generation Communication Kiosks Any Other: Light Houses Fencing Battery Chargers

Priority Assigned

Remarks

Characteristics of Solar Energy Resource Low flux density Large collection area to meet a specific demand Material Requirement Monetary cost Embodied energy

Problem for users with low purchasing power

Issue of energy payback

Space Requirement In short Competition with supply in urban agricultural areas activities

Characteristics of Solar Energy Resource (continued..) Intermittent availability Problem in need satisfaction during the period(s) of insufficient availability Poor reliability

Use of auxiliary system(s)

and /or

Add storage

Increased cost

Increased cost

Low sustainable energy fraction

Cost of storage

Storage Tech. not yet fully mature

Cost of increased collection area

DIFFUSION CRITERIA ◆Resource availability ◆Technological appropriateness ◆Energetic feasibility ◆Socio-cultural acceptability ◆Environmental sustainability ◆Financial and economic viability

Technical barriers

O&M capital cost Cost effectiveness

Economic/ financial barriers

Site selection

Social/environmental barriers Local capacity: infrastructure and knowledge barriers Political, institutional and legislative barriers

Experience Curve: Reasons for Decline in Marginal Cost • Changes in Production: Process innovation, learning effect, economies of scale • Changes in the Product: Product innovation, product redesign, product standardization • Changes in input prices

PURCHASING POWER AND MOTIVATION TO USE SOLAR ENERGY Monthly repayment installment (MRI) depends upon total cost Co of the system fraction ( f ) of the capital cost provided as loan loan repayment installments (N) effective interest rate per period (de) MRI

=

N  d e (1 +d e )   f Co   N  (1 +d e ) −1  

Gross income > n [ MRI ] where n is a specific multiplying factor depending upon the country/specific location

Annual Income vs. Number of Households in India 100

90 80 70 60 50 40

Number of households (million)

Number of households (million)

100

30 20

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20000

30000

40000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Annual income (Rs)

10 0 20000

50000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Annual income (Rs)

70000

80000

90000

Niche areas and Utilization Potential (A) Solar Home Systems /PV Lanterns Desirable Characteristics of Niche Areas • Remote un-electrified households

Factors to be Used in Estimating Utilization Potential (maximum) • Total number of households in unelectrified areas

• Households in areas suffering from • Factor for solar radiation availability frequent power cuts • Daily solar radiation availability of more than ------- kWh/m2 • Annual income of more than------

• Factor for purchasing power • Factor for propensity to use solar systems • Factor for availability of cheaper alternative option(s).

Niche areas and Utilization Potential (A) Solar Home Systems /PV Lantern (continued…) Desirable Characteristics of Niche Areas

Factors to be Used in Estimating Utilization Potential (maximum)

Niche areas and Utilization Potential (B) PV Pumps for Irrigation Water Pumping Desirable Characteristics of Niche Areas • Un-electrified villages • Villages suffering power cuts

from

frequent

• Daily solar radiation availability of more than ------- kWh/m2 • Annual income of more than------

Factors to be Used in Estimating Utilization Potential (maximum) • Total number of landholdings of size larger than -------- hectares in unelectrified areas • Factor for solar radiation availability • Factor for purchasing power • Factor for propensity to use solar systems • Factor for availability of cheaper alternative option(s).

Niche areas and Utilization Potential (B) PV Pumps for Irrigation Water Pumping (continued….) Desirable Characteristics of Niche Areas

Factors to be Used in Estimating Utilization Potential (maximum)

Potential Causal Factors and Possible Strategies (A) Solar Home Systems /PV Lantern Potential Causal Factor

Possible Approach for Enhancing Dissemination

• Decentralized low capacity utilization

• Innovative financing mechanisms

• High capital cost

• Financial/Fiscal incentives to the users and/or Production incentives to the manufacturers

• Lack of promotional and after-sales services • Poor system design, site selection

• Carbon benefits internalized • Promotional campaigns in niche areas • Entrepreneurship training in niche areas • Business development meets

Potential Causal Factors and Possible Strategies (A) Solar Home Systems /PV Lantern (continued…) Potential Causal Factor

Possible Approach for Enhancing Dissemination

Additional Issues • Progress towards development of low cost solar cells • Operation in ESCO mode • Linking income generation with improved and additional illumination • Benefits of programmatic CDM • Quality Control • Auxiliary/Back up arrangements

Thank You for Your Inputs