Switch 2030 Vision

*switch

energy and climate in 2030 - a useful vision.

Global warming is real. While we can’t know exactly how it will ultimately impact our lives, one thing is certain:

change is coming... Now it’s IDEO’s chance to get real, too!

World leaders will meet at the to sign the next

Copenhagen Conference

big climate treaty post-Kyoto. We would like to join in the conversation and make IDEO’s voice heard.

But we can’t do it without you. passion imagination time. All you need to get involved is a

a little

for big topics,

and a few hours of

Let’s back up: The 1997

Kyoto protocol set goals that were radical for its time and seem

tame and

insufficient today (mostly -5% from 1990-2012).

181 countries and the EU signed up. Some countries made the goals set therein, some

failed, others refused to even ratify it. (If you are curious, look up who represented the US at the Kyoto conference.)

Enter Copenhagen. In December 2009,

truly radical goals are supposed to be agreed on:

80% reduction That sounds scary and the threat of

of CO2 emissions by 2050.

fear-induced inaction looms large.

the pessimists say...

There’s no use in trying

to be more efficient. There is no way nations will agree on a common way to stop climate change. If nothing else, the economic divide between countries will make it impossible to find solutions accepted as fair by everyone. There is no way people will change their behaviors sufficiently to make any noticeable dent in the rise of temperatures. Too much would need to change - and people are afraid of change, because they are afraid of losing what they have. The best we can do is to focus on adapting to what is happening around us. Humanity is smart enough to deal with whatever environment or climate we’ll find ourselves in.

the optimists say...

We will be saved by

technology and a gradual shift in behavior. The pressure is on and discussions have advanced far enough to reach critical momentum. You can see the change happen as we speak - thousands of companies are developing products that use less energy, monitor energy usage or produce energy in more sustainable ways. Soon, we will tap alternative energies on a large scale and cut down on consumption in a way that will allow us to keep up our quality of life - and even improve it. Green technologies are the greatest business opportunity. International agreements will make sure that all nations are pulling in one direction when it comes to preventing further climate change and - if possible - reversing it.

so what’s IDEO’s role in this?

We

are not out to prove who is wrong and who is right. However, being IDEO, we know that it is easier for people to make decisions and get used to the idea of change if they have a tangible vision of where it all might lead.

Leading up to Copenhagen 2009, we would like to

visualize and widely publish two scenarios. They will be tangible

visions of life in 2030.

They assume:

a) We manage b) We don’t.

to reduce our emissions according to the goals; or,

Not by a long shot.

We would like to help people imagine the future. Or rather, two possible futures, spanning the spectrum between the two views described above.

Our goal is to

get beyond the doom and gloom scenarios. Neither of our two visions is intended to be more persuasive or scarier than the other. They will be descriptions of how the goal posts will be shifting and what kind of challenges we as a global society will be tackling between now and 2030.

2

scenarios, possible futures

No-one is in a position to predict exactly how the journey will go on. What will be the major parameters deciding our level of success? As far as we can see, two things will need to happen:

Demand & awareness changes drastically

Sources change, countries coordinate efforts We make it by managing change

1. Demand of energy will need to change

- at least in industrialized countries. Awareness will need to change first, then behavior will need to follow, be that through insight or regulation.

2. Sources that we draw our energy

from will need to change. Massively. We are not talking your occasional windmill - we are talking major shift in mainstream energy production. We’ll base our 2 scenarios on these parameters like this.*

1 Demand for energy does not change significantly, awareness patchy

We don’t make it and manage implications

2 Sources for energy largely unchanged, international collaboration patchy

your challenge... So here is the idea Each IDEO location will put together a team. Once you have a team, pick your own challenge by selecting your combination of the following parameters;

A) Region

B) Facet of life

C) Persona

D) Expert

A) Pick a region

CO2 reduction is a world wide challenge. Pick a region for which you’d like to create a scenario. Think about an unique perspective your team could bring to the mix.

North America South America Western Europe Asia India Africa

B) Chose a facet of life

Pick one or two (but no more) facets of life that you would like to investigate. In order to get a 360 view of how life will have changed in both cases, we’d like to get a good spread of facets, so be bold in choosing them.

Food

Leisure

Work

Mobility

Shopping

Education

Vacation

Urban Living

C) Create a persona

Pick a persona or model family whose life in 2030 you would like to design. Pick one that seems rich to explore given your region and your chosen facet of life. A persona can represent an individual or a group of friends, family, etc. Please make sure that some level of adult behavior is represented, meaning your persona should be old enough to drive, vote, or make sensible choices. They’d likely also have some sort of occupation that allows them to pay rent/mortgage, shop, etc. We are looking to focus on urban environments, so it would be great if you can pick your persona’s context accordingly.

D) Contact an Expert

We want to avoid trying to re-invent the wheel. We want to stand on the shoulders of giants. Please find a climate change expert specializing in the facet of life or region you have chosen. Let us know if you’d like help finding and contacting one, as we have a list of experts ready and would be happy to ping them for you. Working with experts will be inspiring and will ensure that what we do is informed by the best of the best.

the result

Each team will create two scenarios and visualize them in the shape of videos. It’s up to you how to use those two minutes - whatever communicates your content best.

two 2-minute

Keep in mind that we are looking to create useful visions.

No apocalypses, please.

the result a

They should be distinctively different from each other, but neither one of them will have to be any scarier or rosier than the other.

There will be sacrifice and opportunity in both cases and it will be great to see this transpire in the result.

b

over to you here’s a suggestion on how to proceed

1. Plan:

4. Express:

Let us know which combination you have chosen and which expert you would like to work with first! We will need to ensure that we are working on a good spread of perspectives, so check with the core team before proceeding further. We might need to do some tweaking first.

Think about what regulations, ideas, behaviors, tensions, opportunities these changes will have led to. How will it affect your persons lives in these two scenarios? How will everyday life be affected by measures and behaviors to avoid climate change? Or how will it have been affected or not by the climate change.

2. Inspire:

5. Visualize:

Get in touch with your expert and let them brief you on their topic of expertise (important!). Find any documentaries, articles, web sites speaking about your facet and region. Ask your colleagues who are from that corner of the world. Think 2030 - it’s a long way out!

For each of the two scenarios, please create a visual story (sketch, photo scenario, video clip - you choose) introducing your persona/family and clearly describe how their lives are different from today and different in both cases.

3. Strategize:

Please send your entry back to us by ..... ..... 2009 Don’t forget to include all names of your team members in your deliverable!

What does it all mean for a “we make it 2030” and a “we don’t make it 2030”? What are the major changes to today?

time line a busy few weeks - coordinated across all offices

Video Conference with Core Team

Check Combination and Expert with Core Team

Kick-Off

Expert Brief

Expert Check-In

Core Team Check-In

Expert Check-In

Share 2 minute Videos

Plan

Inspire

Strategize

Express

Visualize

01.May

01.June

15.June

01.July

15.July

then what?

After we have your stories back, we will synthesize the results if and as appropriate, collate them and package them in a suitable format. Then we’ll go online with them - likely in a number of ways. We will find various channels to publish them in the run up to Copenhagen. Magazines and web sites will be dying for some tangibility in the discussions. And we will be there to provide it.

Thank you very much!

We can’t wait to see your visions of our future.

appendix

some information you might find useful

some science-y background history and projections of CO2 emissions

We’ll need to reduce our emission of greenhouse gases. No one measure will be enough. And no one gas will be enough. So far the discussions focus on CO2, but we are only starting to understand the role of methane, emitted by animal’s digestive systems and thawing permafrost. But let’s focus on what we know: As far as we know today, we will need to get below 3 Gt of CO2 emissions per year, roughly the worldwide emissions in 1964. That’s the equivalent of 1t per person per year - twice as much of what a Sri Lankan emits these days, or 1/22 of what the average American produces (source NOE21). To get there we will need to employ a wide range of measures, which together will add up to make the difference. This principle is know as the wedge model for climate stabilization.

what’s already starting to happen Emerging Technologies

Regulatory trends

Behavioral trends

Photovoltaics

Building codes limit energy losses

Hybrids are now ‘cool’

Photothermal water heating

Classification by emission level

Need for feedback on energy

Energy saving light sources

Taxation by emission levels

consumption

House Insulation

carbon trading

Rejection of low mpg vehicles

Triple Glazed windows

Carbon based car taxes

Carbon offset schemes

Heat pumps

...

Rising awareness of heat losses

Wood burning furnaces ...

...

change is inevitable

There is no way to get around change. Life is changing all the time, for better or for worse. Change due to global rises in temperature is well underway in 2008 and will be much more prominent in 2030. This is true for the scenario “we make it” as well as for the scenario “we don’t make it”. It’s just a different kind of change.

inspirational backdrop to our scenarios

True if “We Make It”

True in Both

True if “We Don’t”

Life has become more local Energy sources are diverse Energy is being produced locally Food is sourced very locally No CO2 emitted in transporting goods Remote collaboration tools prevail Long distance travel is a luxury We will depend on the sun and wind Nuclear power is back Kids educate their parents Wasting energy is stigmatized Homes don’t require heating People are aware of their footprint Energy is intuitively understood

Life is more connected than ever Information is omnipresent Data becomes increasingly tangible People will fight over resources Climate discussions intensify More and more climate killers are being identified and researched Cost of oil explodes We are running out of oil and gas World population grows ever quicker The number of cars in the world will continue to grow.

Energy & food sourced like today Awareness has changed Behavior has not Oil is scarce & without alternative Long distance travel subsidized War of opinions raging on energy Temperatures rise in most places Unusual weather patterns More natural disasters Sea levels will rise Parts of world turn into desert Millions of climate refugees Habitable area on earth shrinks Biodiversity drops sharply

Scenario

1

Scenario

2

*Before your print switch on the light

Thanks Your Core Team [email protected] ... ... ... ...