Student Project
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Suppose the Pittsburgh Penguins are facing the Detroit Red Wings in a best of 7 series. Detroit has the home-ice advantage and won the first two games. Games 3,4 and 6 (if necessary) will be played in Pittsburgh and games 5 and 7 (both if necessary) in Detroit. Using the win/lose .491 record from the 2008-2009 season, including the playoffs, the W .667 Penguins win 66.7% of their home games and .509 W 49.1% road games. Compute the probability L .333 that the Penguins win the best of 7 series.
.491
W W W L
.667
.509
L
.667 W
.509
W
.509 .509
L W
.333 L
.667 .333
W L
.491 .509
L
L
.333
W
.667
L
.333 W
L
L
.509
W
.491
L
.667 .333
.491
W
W .667
.509 W L
.491 .509
Pr (Pens Win) = (.667^3)(.491) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) + (.667^3)(.491)(.509) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) = .147 + .036 + .074 + .036 + .036 = .329 or 32.9% James Cole
Mr. Jacobs
AP Statistics
.491
W W W L
.667
.509
L
.667 W
.509
W
.509 .509
L W
.333 L
.667 .333
W L
.491 .509
L
L
.333
W
.667
L
.333 W
L
L
.509
W
.491
L
.667 .333
.491
W
W .667
.509 W L
.491 .509
Pr (Pens Win) = (.667^3)(.491) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) + (.667^3)(.491)(.509) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) + (.667^2)(.491^2)(.333) = .147 + .036 + .074 + .036 + .036 = .329 or 32.9% James Cole
Mr. Jacobs
AP Statistics
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