State Specific Efficiency Potential Implications For South

Working Paper Series __________________________________________________________________________________ Working Paper # 51 Appendix D State-Specific Summaries of the

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South Sharon (Jess) Chandler and Marilyn A. Brown August 2009 Contents State Alabama Arkansas District of Columbia Delaware Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Maryland

Page 1 8 14 20 26 33 41 48 54

State Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia

Page 61 68 76 83 90 97 104 111

Georgia Institute of Technology D. M. Smith Building Room 107 685 Cherry Street Atlanta, GA 30332 - 0345

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Alabamai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Alabama has been evaluated three times within regional studies and twice at the state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Alabama. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Alabama’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East South Central census region, where commercial consumption increases slightly more than residential, while industrial consumption has a flat trajectory for electricity and a declining forecast for natural gas. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Alabama could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for all sectors. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Alabama. The full development of these nearly pollution free opportunities could save 0.18 quads, reducing the state’s total consumption in 2030 by 9.8%. Such development may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the main contributor to the maximum achievable savings potential is the industrial sector. The energy efficiency savings from electricity is also predicted to exceed that of natural gas. 1

Meta-Review Results

A useful estimate for potential savings in Alabama can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the State of Alabama out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 38 trillion Btu in 2020, or about the amount consumed by about 613,000 Alabama households in 2006.ii The largest contribution would be from the industrial sector. These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Alabama, by Sector

2

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Alabama, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 38 trillion Btu is also approximately the energy produced by over one power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.8% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Alabama’s future electricity consumption. Maximum achievable potential for the residential and commercial sectors could bring consumption in 2020 back to 2007 levels. See Figure 3.

3

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Alabama, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 18 trillion Btu and is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Alabama in 2020. The forecast for natural gas predicts a small consumption in increase in residential and commercial sectors, but a decline in industrial, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than that of 2007. The total and commerical natural gas consumption in 2020 as well as commercial and industrial can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic potential). See Figure 4.

4

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Alabama Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Alabama Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Beck et al. (2002) 4. Beck et al. (2002) 5. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020

Length 22 20 20 20 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Alabama Alabama

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

5

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Alabama •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies.

6

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Alabama

Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030 22

AL

AL

SEEA (2009) 2030

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

20

20

20

15

Appalachia

Technical ------------Economic -----Residential -----Commercial -----Industrial -- (13/--) ----Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) ---Residential -28 (30/22) ---Commercial -22 (42/15) ---Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) ----(8/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (14/--) --Residential ---- (14/--) --Commercial ---- (15/--) --Industrial -(8/--) --(14/--) -(23/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

7

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Arkansasi Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Arkansas has been evaluated twice – once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Arkansas. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Arkansas’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption declines in all sectors by about 37 trillion Btu. Consumption in the industrial and residential sectors each decrease by 2.6% while the commercial sector increases by 4.3% from 20009 to 2020. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Arkansas could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for all sectors, except electricity consumption in the commercial sector. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Arkansas. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

8

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in Arkansas can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the State of Arkansas until 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 19 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by 366,000 Arkansas households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Arkansas, by Sector

9

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Arkansas, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 19 trillion Btu is also over half the energy produced by one power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.9% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. There is an increase in projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption in all the sectors with 13.3% in the commercial sector, 3.7% in the residential and 2.9% in the industrial sector from 2009 to 2020. The forecasted maximum achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007 levels for all but the commercial sector. See Figure 3.

10

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Arkansas, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 10 trillion Btu and is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Arkansas in 2020. From 2009 to 2020, the AEO 2009 forecasts a slight decrease in natural gas consumption of 1.1% in the industrial sector, while it forecasts an increase of 5.1% in the residential sector and a 1.3% increase in the commercial sector. Maximum achievable savings in the commercial sector can bring consumption below 2007 levels. See Figure 4.

11

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Arkansas Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Arkansas Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2020

Length 22 15

Region South Census Region Arkansas

Regional Studies • EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are 12

given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Table 2. Summary of Studies For the State of Arkansas Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030 22

AR Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Technical

Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

Economic -------- (13/--) -Maximum Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (11/--) --(8/--) Total Moderate Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (8/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

13

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for District of Columbiai Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential of the District of Columbia has been evaluated twice – once each at the regional and state levels. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the District of Columbia. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the district. The maximum achievable electricity potential in the District of Columbia is unreflective of the regional potential. Overall, the commercial sector dominates the electricity efficiency potential. The electricity consumption trends for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors of D. C. all decline more rapidly than the South Atlantic regional trends. The natural gas consumption trends also show marked downward deviations from the census division trends. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in the District of Columbia. The full deployment of these nearly pollutionfree opportunities could further decrease the projected energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the commercial sector as a larger contributor to the electricity efficiency potential under the maximum achievable case than the residential or industrial sectors. Energy efficiency potential from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. 14

Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in the District of Columbia can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the District of Columbia out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 4.4 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by about 177,000 District of Columbia households in 2006.ii The largest contribution would be from the commercial sector. These savings could bring consumption about 7 trillion Btu below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in District of Columbia, by Sector

15

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for District of Columbia, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 4.4 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by one seventh of a power plant.iii This reduction is about 12.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The District of Columbia is projected to have decreasing consumption in all sectors and with all scenarios. See Figure 3.

16

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for District of Columbia, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

NA

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 2 trillion Btu and is 7.9% of natural gas consumption forecasted for the District of Columbia in 2020. The projected natural gas consumption declines over the study period with all scenarios. See Figure 4.

17

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of the District of Columbia Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. District of Columbia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2020

Length 22 15

Region South Census Region District of Columbia

Regional Studies • EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are 18

given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Table 2. Summary of Studies for the District of Columbia Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030

DC Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

22

15 Technical

Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

Economic -------- (13/--) -Maximum Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (11/--) --(10/--) Total Moderate Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (8/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

19

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Delawarei Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Delaware has been evaluated twice – once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Delaware. In total, this allows an assessment of the energy efficiency potential to offset growth and demand in the State. The projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for Delaware does not rise as steeply as the South Atlantic regional consumption, but is largely reflective of the regional trends. Delaware’s projected natural gas consumption varies from the regional trends especially in the commercial sector, where consumption in 2020 is similar to 2007 values. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Delaware. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.

20

Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in Delaware can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the State of Delaware until 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 5.2 trillion BTUs by 2020, or about the amount consumed by 115,000 Delaware households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Delaware, by Sector

21

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Delaware, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 5.2 trillion Btu, which is also about the energy produced by one fifth of a power plant.iii This reduction is about 12% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The forecast achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007 levels for all but the commercial sector. Delaware’s residential, industrial, and total electricity projected consumption in 2020 falls below 2007 levels with the maximum achievable scenario. The projected commercial consumption rises slightly under the same conditions. See Figure 3.

22

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Delaware, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 2.5 trillion Btu and is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Delaware in 2020. Delaware’s projected natural gas consumption declines more rapidly than the regional maximum achievable scenario, largely due to the commercial sector. The residential and industrial sectors are representative of the regional trends. See Figure 4.

23

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Delaware Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Delaware Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2020

Length 22 15

Region South Census Region District of Columbia

Regional Studies • EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are 24

given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Delaware South Census DE EPRI (2009) Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2030 2020 22 15 Technical --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (31/--) -Total Economic --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (13/--) -Total Maximum Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (11/--) --(10/--) Total Moderate Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (8/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Study Ref End Year Length (years)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

25

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Floridai Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential for the State of Florida has been estimated five times – twice as part of a regional study and three times in state studies. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the Florida. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Florida’s overall maximum achievable electricity potential shows a smaller proportion of industrial potential than the region. Even though Florida’s overall projected sectoral electricity trends are similar to the South Atlantic region, their magnitudes differ from the regional projections. Florida’s projected industrial consumption also differs from the regional projection. The State is projected to have a decline in industrial consumption of natural gas and electricity before rebounding roughly to 2007 levels by 2020, according to the AEO 2009 projections. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Florida. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with energy infrastructure expansion and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

26

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in Florida can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Florida out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 110 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by over 1,970,000 Florida households in 2006.ii The bulk of the savings from the commercial and residential sectors, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Florida, by Sector

27

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Florida, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 110 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by over three power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.1% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Growth in consumption from the residential and commercial sectors drives Florida’s future electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential and industrial sectors could bring consumption in 2020 below2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is not expected to be avoided even if technical potential is achieved. See Figure 3.

28

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Florida, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 11.3 trillion Btu and is 7.1% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Florida in 2020. The total projected consumption of natural gas in the State increases above 2007 levels in 2020 with the maximum achievable scenario, while the total South Atlantic consumption is projected to decrease. This increase may be largely attributed to the increase in projected consumption of the commercial sector even with the maximum achievable scenario. See Figure 4.

29

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Florida Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Florida Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 3. Beck et al. (2002) 5. Beck et al. (2002) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 7. Elliott et al. (2007)

End Year 2030 2020 2020 2020 2023

Length 22 20 20 15 15

Region South Census Region TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Florida Florida Florida

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to 30

inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Florida

•

Elliott, R. N., Eldridge, M., Shipley, A. M., Laitner, S., Nadel, S., Fairey, P., et al. (2007). Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to Meet Florida's Growing Energy Demands (No. E072): American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e072.htm

This report "estimates the capacity for energy efficiency and renewable energy resources in Florida and suggests a suite of policy options that the state should consider to realize their achievable potential" (p.2). The study finds that Florida could cost-effectively offset 45% of it's forecast conventional electricity needs by 2023 using a combination of renewable (two-thirds of reduction) and efficiency (one-third of reduction) measures. •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies.

31

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Florida South Census Study Ref

EPRI (2009)

End Year Length (years)

2030

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Beck et al. (2002) 2020

22

20

FL

FL

FL

Elliott et al. (2007) 2023

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

15

20

15

-----

-----

-----

Technical Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

Economic ---- (34/--) --Residential ---- (28/--) --Commercial ---- (24/--) --Industrial -- (13/--) ----Total Maximum Achievable -----Residential -----Commercial -----Industrial -- (11/--) ----- (10/--) Total Moderate Achievable --- (14/--) ---Residential --- (14/--) ---Commercial --- (15/--) ---Industrial -- (8/--) -- (14/--) -- (26/--) -- (22/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

32

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Georgiai Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential for the state of Georgia has been evaluated in seven different reports. Not only has it been included in three regional studies, its efficiency potential has been estimated by three state level studies and one utility study. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Georgia. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset the growing demand for energy in the State. Georgia’s forecasted consumption in each sector is similar to the South Atlantic census region, where consumption in commercial buildings is expected to most rapidly, followed by residential buildings and industrial consumption. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Georgia could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for the residential and industrial sectors. Residential consumption of natural gas in the commercial sector is not expected to drop below 2007 levels in 2020 under the maximum or moderate achievable scenarios. For these, the need for more rigorous policy intervention may be required Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Georgia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

33

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate of Georgia’s potential energy savings can be made using the average energy efficiency potentials published in the 19 studies covering the South, as described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Figures 1-4 show potential savings for Georgia to 2020, assuming the average percent per year efficiency potential is realized. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential, industrial, and commerical sectors are achieved, savings could be about 60 trillion Btu in 2020, or about the amount consumed by over one million Georgia households in 2006.ii The largest contribution would be from the commercial sector. These savings could bring consumption in 2020 to below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Georgia, by Sector

34

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Georgia, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 60 trillion Btu is also approximately the energy produced by two power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the forecast anticipates that industrial consumption in 2020 to be slightly less than the sector’s consumption in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Georgia’s future electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, some of the projected growth in commercial electricity consumption is likely unavoidable unless some technical potential is exploited. This would likely require the implementation of vigorous deployment policies. See Figure 3.

35

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Georgia, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total Natural Gas

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 25 trillion Btu and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Georgia in 2020. The forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption increase in all sectors except industrial, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than that in 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in 2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential. See Figure 4.

36

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Georgia Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Beck et al. (2002) 4. Jensen, V. & Lounsbury (2005) 5. Beck et al. (2002) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 7. Nexant, Inc. (2007) 8. Nexant, Inc. (2007)

End Year 2030 2030 2020 2010 2020 2020 2018 2010

Length 22 20 20 5 20 15 11 3

Region South Census Region Appalachia TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Power Service Territory Georgia Power Service Territory

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

Brown, Marilyn, John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian

37

Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Georgia • Jensen, V., & Lounsbury, E. (2005). Assessment of Energy Efficiency Potential in Georgia. ICF Consulting for Georgia Environmental Facilities Authority. http://www.gefa.org/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=46.

This study estimated the technical, economic, and achievable (with policies ranging from minimally to very aggressive) energy efficiency potential across the state of Georgia. Further, the study examined the costs and environmental benefits of achieving the potential. A companion report lists a number of policies that could be adopted to capture the potential estimated here. •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. 38

Substate Studies • Nexant, Inc. 2007. Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential Assessment: Final Study for Georgia Power. Public Disclosure. Prepared for Georgia Power and presented to the Georgia Public Service Commission.

This report was prepared to fulfill a requirement for the Georgia Public Service Commission under docket number 22449-U by including an assessment of cost-effective achievable savings with Georgia Powers 2007 Integrated Resource Plan filing. Nexant, Inc. followed the approach used by ICF Consulting during the 2005 assessment of efficiency potential for the state of Georgia (see Jensen & Lounsbury, 2005). The study found that efficiency could meet 1.7% (with a minimally aggressive 25% incentive level) to 6.2% (with an aggressive 100% incentive level) of the company's forecast sales by 2010; estimates were developed to 2018, but moderate achievable savings were only reported to 2010 in the study.

39

Table 2. Summary of Studies the State of Georgia

Appalachia

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL

EPRI (2009) 2030

SEEA (2009) 2030

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

22

20

20

----- (31/-)

----

----

--

--

South Census

Study Ref End Year Length (years)

GA Jensen, V. & Lounsbury (2005) 2010

GA

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Ga Power Service Territory

Ga Power Service Territory

2020

Nexant, Inc. (2007) 2018

Nexant, Inc. (2007) 2010

GA Elliott & Shipley (2005)

5 Technical ----

20

15

11

3

----

----

-- (33/--) -- (33/--) -- (26/--)

----

--

--

-- (31/--)

--

----

----

-Economic ----

----

----

-- (22/--) -- (25/--) -- (25/--)

----

--

--Maximum Achievable --- (9/5) --- (10/10) --- (7/5)

--

--

-- (24/--)

--

----

----

-- (9/--) -- (11/--) -- (10/--)

-- (7/--) -- (8/--) -- (3/--)

--- (9/6) ---(5/--) -- (10/--) Moderate Achievable ---- (14/--) -- (5/4) ---Residential ---- (14/--) -- (8/8) ---Commercial ---- (15/--) -- (5/4) ---Industrial -- (8/--) --- (14/--) -- (6/4) -- (23/--) --Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report

-- (6/--)

Residential Commercial Industrial Total Residential Commercial Industrial Total Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (13/-) ----- (11/-)

15 (11/23) 28 (30/22) 22 (42/15) 24 (27/14)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

40

-- (4/--) -- (4/--) -- (2/--) -- (3/--)

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Kentuckyi Over the past decade, the efficiency potential for Kentucky has been evaluated in five reports. Kentucky is included in three regional studies, and two state level studies have been conducted for Kentucky. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Kentucky. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Kentucky’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East South Central census region, where commercial consumption increases the most, followed by the residential sector. On the other hand, industrial consumption is forecasted to be flat and its projected natural gas consumption also declines. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Kentucky. The full development of these nearly pollution free opportunities could save 0.16 quads, reducing the state’s total consumption in 2030 by 9.8%. Such development may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.

41

Meta-Review Results

A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Kentucky can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Kentucky out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential , industrial, and commercial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 37 trillion Btu in 2020, or about the amount consumed by over 695,000 Kentucky households in 2006.ii The largest contribution would be from the industrial sector. These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Kentucky, by Sector

42

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Kentucky, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 37 trillion Btu is also approximately the energy produced by over one power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.8% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, growth in consumption from the commercial sector drive Kentucky’s future electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is not expected to be avoided unless economic potential is achieved. See Figure 3.

43

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Kentucky, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 17 trillion Btu and is about 7.4% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Kentucky in 2020. The forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption in increase in residential and commercial sectors, but a decline in industrial, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than that of 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in 2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic potential). The forecast growth in commercial sector, on the other hand, can be offset by exploiting economic potential. See Figure 4.

44

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Kentucky Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Kentucky Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. MEEA (2007) 4. KPPC & ACEEE (2007) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 ---2017 2020

Length 22 20 20 10 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, WI Kentucky Kentucky

Regional Studies •

Brown, Marilyn, John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

45

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." • MEEA. 2007. MEEA Midwest Residential Market Assessment and DSM Potential Study. Sponsored by Xcel Energy. http://www.mwalliance.org/image/docs/resources/MEEA-Resource-5.pdf The MEEA market assessment and potential study characterizes the potential for energy efficiency and demand side management in the residential sector. The study included surveys to collect primary data. The study presents estimates of potential for electricity and natural gas in the residential sector for the MEEA region and for its eight component states. The study finds that natural gas savings potentials are larger and more consistent across states than the electricity savings potentials. State Studies

•

Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center and American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. 2007. An Overview of Kentucky's Energy Consumption and Energy Efficiency Potential. Prepared for the Governor's Office of Energy Policy. http://louisville.edu/kppc/publications

This report forecasts future consumption and analyzes energy consumption in Kentucky’s residential, commercial and industrial sectors and estimates the impact that energy efficiency could play in reducing future energy demand. Two policy forecasts are shown - minimally and moderately aggressive - drawing on the Annual Energy Outlook's high technology and best available technology cases; under the moderately aggressive scenario, all of the forecast load growth is offset by energy efficiency. • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies.

46

Table 2. Summary of Studies For the State of Kentucky

Study Ref

South Census

Appalachia

IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, WI

EPRI (2009)

SEEA (2009)

MEEA (2007)

2030 22

2030 20

KY KPPC & ACEEE (2007) 2017 10

KY Elliott & Shipley (2005)

(blank) 2020 20 15 Technical ---- (24/47) --Residential -----Commercial -----Industrial -- (31/--) ----Total Economic -----Residential -----Commercial -----Industrial -- (13/--) ----Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) ---Residential -28 (30/22) ---Commercial -22 (42/15) ---Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) ----(8/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (10/25) 8 (--/--) -Residential ---7 (--/--) -Commercial ----- (16/10) -Industrial -- (8/--) ----Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report End Year Length (years)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

47

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Louisianai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Louisiana has been evaluated twice – once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Louisiana. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset the growing demand for energy in the State. From 2009 to 2020, Louisiana’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption declines in all sectors by about 299 trillion Btu. During this time, the industrial sector decreases the most by 13.3% followed by the residential sector by 6.7% and finally the commercial sector by 0.1%. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Louisiana could bring consumption in 2020 below 2007 levels for all sectors. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Louisiana. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could further decrease energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the dominance of the savings potential by the industrial sector. Savings potential from natural gas also exceed that of electricity.

48

Meta-Review Results

An estimate of the potential savings in Louisiana can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the State of Louisiana out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 32 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by 542,000 Louisiana households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Louisiana, by Sector

49

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Louisiana, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 32 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by slightly over one power plant.iii This reduction is about 12.1% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The forecast achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007 levels for all sectors. See Figure 3.

50

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Louisiana, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 57 trillion Btu and is 7.8% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Louisiana in 2020. A decrease in natural gas consumption is forecasted in the industrial and commercial sectors of 3% and 5.3% respectively from 2007 to 2020 while there is a slight increase of 0.7% in the residential sector. See Figure 4.

51

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Louisiana Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Louisiana Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2020

Length 22 15

Region South Census Region Louisiana

Regional Studies • EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. 52

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Louisiana Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030 22

DE Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Technical

Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

Economic -------- (13/--) -Maximum Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (11/--) --(11/--) Total Moderate Achievable --Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (8/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

53

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Marylandi Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Maryland has been evaluated four times – twice each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Maryland. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Maryland’s overall total projected electricity consumption in 2020 approximates 2007 levels, like the South Atlantic region, but its projected electricity consumption in the residential and commercial sectors decrease. The projected increase in industrial electricity consumption negates these consumption avoidances during the period. Maryland’s projected natural gas consumption in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are reflective of the regional trend. Still, overall, it shows an increase in natural gas consumption given the maximum achievable scenario, which varies from the region. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Maryland. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

54

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and commercial sectors dominating the potential energy efficiency savings. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Maryland can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Maryland out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 29 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by about 656,000 Maryland households in 2006.ii The bulk of savings shared by the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Maryland, by Sector

55

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Maryland, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 29 trillion Btu, which is also about the energy produced by almost one power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.7% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Unlike the typical South Atlantic region, Maryland has a decrease in 2020 consumption from 2007 levels in the residential and commercial sectors given the maximum achievable scenario. The industrial sector consumption rises in 2020 from 2007 consumption levels with the same scenario. Still, overall, the State consumption of total electricity in 2020 may reach 2007 levels if the maximum achievable scenario is realized. See Figure 3.

56

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Maryland, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 14 trillion Btu and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Maryland in 2020. Maryland’s natural gas consumption potential is representative of the South Atlantic regional average within the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Unlike the regional average, Maryland has an increase in the total projected consumption of natural gas in 2020 compared to 2007 levels. See Figure 4.

57

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Maryland Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Eldrige, M. et al. (2008) 4. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 2025 2020

Length 22 20 17 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia Maryland Maryland

Regional Studies • Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335 This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410-county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987.

58

http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

EPRI (2009) provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Eldridge, Maggie, Neal Elliott, William Prindle, Katie Ackerly, John “Skip” Laitner, Vanessa McKinney, Steve Nadel, Max Neubauer, Alison Silverstein, Bruce dman, Anne Hampson, and Ken Darrow. . 2008. Energy Efficiency: The First Fuel for a Clean Energy Future. Resources for Meeting Maryland's Electricity Needs. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy and EEA division of ICF International. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e082.htm This report sought to demonstrate that cost-effective energy efficiency can meet the Maryland's statewide goals for electricity demand reductions. In addition, it shows that efficiency investments, driven by substantial policy, can create jobs and boost the economy. •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies.

59

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Maryland South Census

Appalachia

2030

MD Eldridge, M. et al. (2008) 2025

MD Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

Study Ref

EPRI (2009)

SEEA (2009)

End Year Length (years)

2030 22

20

17

15

Technical ------------Economic ---- (31/--) -Residential ---- (35/--) -Commercial ---- (8/--) -Industrial -- (13/--) ---Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) --Residential -28 (30/22) --Commercial -22 (42/15) --Industrial -(11/--) 24 (27/14) --(10/--) Total Moderate Achievable ----Residential ----Commercial ----Industrial -- (8/--) --- (29/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

60

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Mississippii Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Mississippi has been evaluated three times – twice at the regional and once at the state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Mississippi. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Mississippi’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East South Central census region, where commercial consumption increases slightly more than residential, while industrial consumption has a flat trajectory for electricity and a declining forecast for natural gas. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Mississippi could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for all sectors. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Mississippi. The full development of these nearly pollution free opportunities could save 0.09 quads, reducing the state’s total consumption in 2030 by 9.6%. Such development may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

61

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in the state of Mississippi can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Mississippi out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential , industrial, and commercial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 20 trillion Btu in 2020, or about the amount consumed by 343,000 Mississippi households in 2006.ii The residential, commercial, and industrial sectors contribute about equally. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Mississippi, by Sector

62

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Mississippi, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 20 trillion Btu is also approximately the energy produced by slightly less than one power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Mississippi’s future electricity consumption. Maximum achievable potential for the residential and commercial sectors could bring consumption in 2020 back to 2007 levels. See Figure 3.

63

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Mississippi, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario about 11 trillion Btu and is about 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Mississippi in 2020. The forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption increase in residential and commercial sectors, but a decline in the industrial sector, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than that of 2007. Total natural gas consumption in 2020 as well as commercial and industrial can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic potential). See Figure 4.

64

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Mississippi Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Mississippi Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 2020

Length 22 20 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia Mississippi

Regional Studies • Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335 This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410-county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

EPRI (2009) provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the 65

electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a 2003 study on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Mississippi Appalachia MS SEEA (2009) Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2030 2020 20 15 Technical ---Residential ---Commercial ---Industrial -- (31/--) --Total Economic ---Residential ---Commercial ---Industrial -- (13/--) --Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) -Residential -28 (30/22) -Commercial -22 (42/15) -Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) --(9/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---Residential ---Commercial ---Industrial -- (8/--) --Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030 22

66

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

67

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for North Carolinai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for North Carolina has been estimated eight times. North Carolina is included in three regional studies. In addition, efficiency potential has been estimated at the state level five times. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for North Carolina. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the district. The proportion of each sectoral electricity and natural gas potential in North Carolina is typical of the South Atlantic region. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in North Carolina. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.

68

Meta-Review Results An estimate for potential savings in the state of North Carolina can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of North Carolina out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 58 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by about 84,700 households in 2006.ii The largest contributions are from the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in North Carolina, by Sector

69

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for North Carolina, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Under the maximum achievable scenario, the total electricity savings of 58 trillion Btu is also almost the energy produced by two power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.5% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO 2009 forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, consumption growth from the residential and commercial sectors drive North Carolina’s future electricity consumption. The industrial sector is projected to consume less in 2020 than in 2007 with the maximum achievable scenario, as is the case for the overall South Atlantic region. However, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is not expected to be avoided unless technical potential is achieved. See Figure 3.

70

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for North Carolina, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 15 trillion Btu and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for North Carolina in 2020. North Carolina has natural gas consumption avoidance that is representative of the average South Atlantic states. Industrial and total consumption of natural gas reach 2007 levels in 2020 with the maximum achievable scenario, while residential and commercial sectors experience an increase from 2007 consumption levels in 2020. See Figure 4.

71

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of North Carolina Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. North Carolina Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. Beck et al. (2002) 2. EPRI (2009) 3. SEEA (2009) 4. Beck et al. (2002) 5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 6. GDS Associates (2007) 7. Tiller, J. (2007) 8. Hadley, S. (2003)

End Year 2020 2030 2030 2020 2020 2017 2020 2020

Length 20 22 20 20 15 10 12 20

Region TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL South Census Region Appalachia North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian

72

Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of North Carolina • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. • GDS Associates. (2007). A Study of the Feasibility of Energy Efficiency as an Eligible Resource as Part of a Renewable Portfolio Standard for the State of North Carolina: North Carolina Utilities Commission. GDS Associates (2007) was designed to estimate the level of energy efficiency that is both cost-effective and achievable for determining whether or not energy efficiency should be included as a source for a Renewable Portfolio Standard in North Carolina. The study found that the achievable cost-effective efficiency potential was 14% of forecast sales in 2017, much higher than the 2.5% of sales that will be expected from 73

energy efficiency as anticipated under a 10% renewable generation requirement in 2017 (efficiency is supposed to be a max of 25% of the renewable source). While this study projects program and participant costs (with a levelized cost of 2.9 cents per kwh saved) to achieve the RPS savings of 2.5%, it does not present program costs for the efficiency potential presented. • Tiller, J. (2007). Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Opportunities for North Carolina Buildings and Industrial Facilities. Prepared for the North Carolina State Energy Office. Tiller (2007) provides a basis for estimating how much energy can be saved in North Carolina’s residential, commercial, and industrial sectors through aggressive implementation of energy efficiency measures. The analysis considers three market penetration scenarios - low, medium, and high - depending on the return on investment (from a customer or investor standpoint). Those measures with higher rates of return will achieve a higher market penetration. Under the low market penetration scenario, energy savings are 2.3% and electricity savings are 2.4% in 2020; under the high penetration scenario, energy savings are 12.3% and electricity savings are 16.3% in 2020. • Hadley, S. 2003. The Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in North Carolina. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. http://www.ornl.gov/~webworks/cppr/y2007/rpt/116643.pdf Hadley (2003) provides an initial estimate of the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy in North Carolina using an extraction from the South Atlantic Census Division results from NEMS. The finding is that there is substantial available costeffective savings without fiscal policies, like subsidies or tax incentives. Estimates of improved consumer adoption based on changes in perception/marketing are modeled by changing the discount rate input to the NEMS model - based on the Moderate scenario of the Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000).

74

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of North Carolina

Study Ref End Year Length (years)

2030

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Beck et al. (2002) 2020

GDS Associates (2007) 2017

20

20

10

South Census

Appalachia

EPRI (2009)

SEEA (2009)

2030 22

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

Tiller, J. (2007)

Hadley, S. (2003) 2020

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

2020 12

20

20

15

Technical -- (40/--) ----- (32/--) ----- (24/--) ----- (33/--) ---Economic -------Residential -------Commercial -------Industrial -- (13/--) ------Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) --- (20/--) -18 (20/--) -Residential -28 (30/22) --- (22/--) -11 (16/--) -Commercial -22 (42/15) --- (18/--) ---Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) --- (20/--) 12 (16/--) --Total Moderate Achievable ---- (14/--) -- (17/--) -5 (7/--) -Residential ---- (14/--) -- (12/--) -4 (6/--) -Commercial ---- (15/--) -- (12/--) ---Industrial -- (8/--) --- (14/--) -- (14/--) 9 (11/--) --- (23/--) Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

-----

-----

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

75

-------------(8/--) -----

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Oklahomai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Oklahoma has been estimated five times. It is included in the EPRI (2009) estimate for the South Census region, and efficiency potential is evaluated at the state level by Elliott & Shipley (2005). In addition, efficiency potential has been estimated for two of Oklahoma’s electric utilities. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Oklahoma. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Oklahoma’s total consumption is forecasted in the AEO 2009 to decrease by about 70 trillion Btu. The forecasted consumption in the residential sector decreases by 5.1% but the most significant decrease is in the industrial sector by 11.8%. A slight increase of 1.6% is forecasted in the commercial sector. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Oklahoma. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

76

Figure 1 shows the largest savings potential is from the industrial sector with the maximum achievable potential case. The energy efficiency savings from electricity is also predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in Oklahoma can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Oklahoma out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 23 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by over 425,000 Oklahoma households in 2006.ii The largest contribution is from the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Oklahoma, by Sector

77

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Oklahoma, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 23 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by slightly less than one power plant.iii This reduction is about 12% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Electricity consumption is forecasted to remain almost the same across all sectors with the exception of the commercial sector which shows a slight increase of about 10 trillion Btu. While the AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, growth in consumption from the residential and commercial sectors drive Oklahoma’s future electricity consumption. Achievable potential could bring consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels. See Figure 3.

78

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Oklahoma, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 19 trillion Btu and is 7.6% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Oklahoma in 2020. Natural gas consumption is forecasted to show no major variations across all sectors, but a slight decrease of about 10 trillion Btu in the industrial sector is expected (see Figure 4). Both the moderate and maximum achievable potentials bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for the residential, industrial, commercial, and total sectors. See Figure 4.

79

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Oklahoma Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Oklahoma Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 7. OG&E (2008) 8. PSO (2008). (2007)

End Year 2030 2020 2018 2010

Length 22 15 10 3

Region South Census Region Georgia Georgia Power Service Territory Georgia Power Service Territory

Regional Studies • EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, 80

the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Substate Studies

•

OG&E Energy Efficiency Potential Study (2008). Technical, Economic and Achievable Potentials for the Residential, Commercial and Industrial Customer Base. Prepared by Frontier Associates LLC for Oklahoma Gas & Electric. http://www.occeweb.com/Divisions/PUD/Collaborative/OGE_EnergyEfficiencyP otential_FinalReport%2010-02-08.pdf

OG&E (2008) examines the potential for Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company to reduce electric energy use and lower peak demand through energy efficiency initiatives. Savings detail (energy savings and demand reduction) is provided on estimates by sector and enduse. The study finds that the maximum achievable potential by 2018 is 8% of forecast sales. • PSO Energy Efficiency Potential Study (2008). Technical, Economic and Achievable Potentials for the Residential, Commercial and Industrial Customer Base. Prepared by Frontier Associates LLC for Public Service Company of Oklahoma. PSO (2008) examines the potential for Public Service Company of Oklahoma to reduce electric energy use and lower peak demand through energy efficiency initiatives. Savings detail (energy savings and demand reduction) is provided on estimates by sector and enduse. The study finds that the maximum achievable potential by 2018 is 8% of forecast sales.

81

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Oklahoma South Census

OK

Study Ref

EPRI (2009)

End Year Length (years)

2030

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

22

15

OGE service territory

PSCO service territory

OG&E (2008)

PSO (2008)

2018

2018

10

10

Technical --- (37/--) -- (35/--) --- (30/--) -- (32/--) --- (32/--) -- (33/--) --- (33/--) -- (34/--) Economic ---- (27/--) -- (27/--) Residential ---- (20/--) -- (22/--) Commercial ---(21/--) -- (22/--) Industrial -- (13/--) --- (23/--) -- (24/--) Total Maximum Achievable ---- (7/--) -- (7/--) Residential ---- (6/--) -- (7/--) Commercial ---- (11/--) -- (8/--) Industrial -- (11/--) -- (10/--) -- (8/--) -- (8/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (3/--) -- (2/--) Residential ---- (2/--) -- (3/--) Commercial ---- (4/--) -- (4/--) Industrial -- (8/--) --- (3/--) -- (3/--) Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

82

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for South Carolinai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for South Carolina has been estimated six times. South Carolina is included in three regional studies. In addition, efficiency potential has been estimated twice at the state level and once at the substate utility level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for South Carolina. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the district. One notable difference between South Carolina and its census region is the projected decline of the total natural gas consumption in the State while the South Atlantic region total natural gas consumption is projected to increase. The projected electricity consumption growth rate for South Carolina is less than that of the South Atlantic region. The proportion of the sectoral savings under the maximum achievable scenario varies from the regional proportions. In South Atlantic, the industrial sector has smallest proportion of savings, while in South Carolina it presents the largest avoided electrical consumption. While industrial consumption increases under the max achievable case under electricity, it still presents the highest energy efficiency potential in South Carolina. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in South Carolina. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

83

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in South Carolina can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of South Carolina out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 34 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by about 581,000 South Carolina households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2, with about equal contributions from the individual sectors. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in South Carolina, by Sector

84

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for South Carolina, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 34 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by more than one power plant.iii This reduction is about 12% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Under the maximum achievable scenario, the residential sector, commercial sector, and total electricity consumption in 2020 are lower than that of 2007. The industrial sector has modest gains in consumption under the maximum achieveable scenario in 2020 when compared to 2007 consumption. Under the technical achievable scenario, the industrial sector consumption in 2020 can be less than that of 2007. See Figure 3.

85

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for South Carolina, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 8.7 trillion Btu and is about 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Georgia in 2020. Under this scenario, the largest consumption avoidance occurs from the industrial sector. The commercial sector provides a slight reduction, while the residential sector provides a slight increase in 2020 consumption when compared to 2007. See Figure 4. References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). 86

Appendix: Summary of South Carolina Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. South Carolina Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Beck et al. (2002) 4. Beck et al. (2002) 5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 6. GDS Associates (2007)

End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2017

Length 22 20 20 20 15 10

Region South Census Region Appalachia TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL South Carolina South Carolina CEPCI Service Territory, South Carolina

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987 87

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of South Carolina •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Substate Studies • GDS Associates. (2007). Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Study for Central Electric Power Cooperative, Inc. Prepared for the Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina, September.

Estimate the technical and achievable potential for electric energy savings from energy efficiency in the CEPCI service territory (the Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina). The study found that with a broad selection of measures across sectors, there is a significant potential for electric energy efficiency - on par with similar studies.

88

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of South Carolina

Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census

Appalachia

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL

SC

EPRI (2009)

SEEA (2009)

Beck et al. (2002)

Beck et al. (2002)

2030

2030

2020

22

20

20

Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--)

Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (13/--)

2020

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

CEPCI Service Territory, SC GDS Associates (2007) 2017

20

15

10

-----

-----

-----

-----

Technical --------Economic ------------Maximum Achievable 15 (11/23) --28 (30/22) --22 (42/15) --24 (27/14) -------

SC

--Residential --Commercial --Industrial -- (11/--) --(8/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (14/--) --Residential ---- (14/--) --Commercial ---- (15/--) --Industrial -- (8/--) --- (14/--) -- (23/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report

-- (22/--) -- (23/--) -- (13/--) -- (21/--) -- (12/--) -- (15/--) -- (8/--) -- (12/--)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

89

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Tennesseei Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Tennessee has been estimated six times. Tennessee is included in three regional studies. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Tennessee. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Tennessee’s AEO 2009 forecasted consumption in each sector is similar to the East South Central census region, where commercial consumption increases the most, flowed by residential. On the other hand, industrial consumption is forecasted to decrease where its natural gas consumption declines the most. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Tennessee. The full development of these nearly pollution free opportunities could save 0.20 quads, reducing the state’s total consumption in 2030 by 9.5%. Such development may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.

90

Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in the state of Tennessee can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Tennessee out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential , industrial, and commercial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 46 trillion Btu in 2020, or about the amount consumed by over 794,000 Tennessee households in 2006.ii Each sector contributes a similar amount to the electricity saving potential. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Tennessee, by Sector

91

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Tennessee, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 46 trillion Btu is also approximately the energy produced by one and a half power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.5% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Tennessee’s future electricity consumption. Maximum achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is likely unavoidable unless some technical potential is achieved. This would likely require the implementation of more vigorous deployment policies. See Figure 3.

92

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Tennessee, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 0.0122 quads and is 7.2% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Tennessee in 2020. The forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption in increase in residential and commercial sectors, but a decline in the industrial sector, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than that of 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in 2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic potential). The forecast growth in commercial sector, on the other hand, can be offset by exploiting economic potential. See Figure 4.

93

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Tennessee Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Tennessee Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Beck et al. (2002) 4. Beck et al. (2002) 5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 6. EPRI (2002)

End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2023

Length 22 20 20 20 15 20

Region South Census Region Appalachia TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Valley Authority

Regional Studies • Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable Energy Policy Project. http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf

Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-bystate basis. •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

94

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Tennessee •

Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Substate Studies

•

EPRI. 2002. Energy Efficiency Technology Assessment for the Tennessee Valley Region, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, and Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, TN. December. 1007597.

This report assesses the potential for Texas to meet its future energy service needs through energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy. The study finds that aggressive efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy policies can costeffectively (at a levelized cost of 4.5 cents per kwh) help Texas cover all of the projected 95

growth in peak demand by 2013. These policies could also reduce consumption from forecast by 8% in 2013 and 22% in 2023. Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Tennessee

Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030 22

TN

TN

TVA

SEEA (2009) 2030

TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Beck et al. (2002) 2020

Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

EPRI (2002) 2023

20

20

20

15

20

Appalachia

Technical ---Residential ---Commercial ---Industrial ---Total Economic -----Residential -----Commercial -----Industrial -- (13/--) ----Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) ---Residential -28 (30/22) ---Commercial -22 (42/15) ---Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) ----(13/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (14/--) --Residential ---(14/--) --Commercial ---- (15/--) --Industrial -- (8/--) --- (14/--) -- (23/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report ----- (31/--)

-----

------------- (22/--) ----

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

96

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Texasi Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential in Texas has been evaluated in five reports - once as part of a regional study, three times at the state level, and once in a utility study. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Texas. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. Texas is the only state in the West South Central census region whose total forecasted AEO 2009 energy consumption increases by about 323 trillion Btu from 2009 to 2020. Consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increases by 14.8% and 7.3% respectively, while the industrial sector shows a slight decrease of 0.3% from 2009 to 2020. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Texas increase electricity consumption in the residential and commercial sectors but the industrial sector could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels. In the case of natural gas under both achievable potentials, consumption is forecasted to increase for the commercial sector but decrease below 2007 consumption for the residential and the industrial sectors. Analysis of published studies of the potential for energy efficiency improvements in the South suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective opportunities exists in Texas. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption that is forecasted for the State over the next decade, deferring the need to expand electricity and natural gas supplies. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

97

Figure 1 shows the dominance of the savings potential by the industrial sector under the maximum achievable potential case. The energy efficiency savings from electricity and natural gas are similar. Meta-Review Results

An estimate for potential savings in the state of Texas can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Texas out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 159 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by over 18 million Texas households in 2006.ii The largest contribution is from the commercial sector, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Texas, by Sector

98

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Texas, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 159 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by over five power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.4% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. In all the sectors, an increase in electricity consumption of about 210 trillion Btu is expected to represent a 24.7% increase in the commercial sector, 13.3% in the residential sector and 14.2% in the industrial sector. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is not expected to be avoided even if the technical potential is achieved. See Figure 3.

99

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Texas, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is over 135 trillion Btu and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Texas in 2020. Industrial consumption drives the total consumption of natural gas for Texas (see Figure 4). Natural gas consumption is also forecasted to increase by 160 trillion Btu, representing an 11.5% increase in the commercial sector, 8.9% increase in the residential sector, and a 15.8% increase in the industrial sector. The moderate and maximum achievable potentials fail to bring consumption in 2020 to be less than 2007 levels for any sectors. See Figure 4.

100

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009).

Appendix: Summary of Texas Efficiency Potential Studies See Table 1 for publications and publication dates. Table 1. Texas Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. Itron, Inc. (2008) 3. Elliott, N. et al. (2007) 4. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 5. KEMA (2004)

End Year 2030 2018 2023 2020 2014

Length 22 10 15 15 10

Region South Census Region Texas Texas Tennessee San Antonio, Texas

Regional Studies •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies

•

Elliott, Neal, Maggie Eldridge, Anna M. Shipley, John “Skip” Laitner, Steven Nadel, Alison Silverstein, Bruce Hedman, and Mike Sloan. 2007. Potential for Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, and Onsite Renewable Energy to Meet Texas’s Growing Electricity Needs. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Report E073. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e073.htm 101

This report assesses the potential for Texas to meet its future energy service needs through energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy. The study finds that aggressive efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy policies can costeffectively (at a levelized cost of 4.5 cents per kwh) help Texas cover all of the projected growth in peak demand by 2013. These policies could also reduce consumption from forecast by 8% in 2013 and 22% in 2023. • Itron, Inc. 2008. Assessment of the Feasible and Achievable Levels of Electricity Savings from Investor Owned Utilities in Texas: 2009-2018, Final. Prepared for the Public Utility Commission of Texas, December. http://www.puc.state.tx.us/electric/reports/index.cfm Itron (2008) sought to estimate the technical, economic, and achievable energy efficiency potential for the state of Texas and for the larger investor owned Texas utilities and using achievable potential, assess the reasonableness of the newly set energy saving goals for 2010 and 2015. The study finds that utilities will have difficulty meeting the goals for 2010, but can meet them later with cost-effective programs. The study also shows that changes in regulations that allow more flexible approaches to demand side management programs can increase savings. • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Substate Studies

•

KEMA. 2004. City Public Service Technical and Economic Energy Efficiency Potential Study. Prepared for City Public Service, San Antonio, TX. October. http://www.cleanenergyfortexas.org/downloads/KEMA_EE_2004.pdf

KEMA (2004) was commissioned to develop a comprehensive energy efficiency plan for the utility City Public Service (CPS), an electric and gas utility serving San Antonio and some surrounding areas. KEMA (2004) found that both the base efficiency scenario (with CPS' current program funding) and the advanced efficiency scenario (with about an 80% increase in program funding) are cost effective with a TRC of 1.97 and 1.96, respectively. All measures in all years that are applied in this study have a first year cost of less than $.03/kwh except residential new construction, which ranges from $0.04/kwh to $0.074/kwh depending on the year and scenario (base or advanced). 102

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Texas South Census Study Ref

EPRI (2009)

Itron, Inc. (2008) 2018 10

TX

TX

San Antonio TX

Elliott, N. et al. (2007)

Elliott & Shipley (2005)

KEMA (2004)

2023 2020 2014 15 15 10 Technical --- (39/--) ----(30/--) Residential --- (19/--) ----(18/--) Commercial --- (12/--) ----(13/--) Industrial -- (31/--) -----(23/--) Total Economic --- (23/--) -- (32/--) ---(17/--) Residential --- (17/--) -- (39/--) ---(11/--) Commercial --- (11/--) -- (26/--) ---(8/--) Industrial -- (13/--) -----(14/--) Total Maximum Achievable ------(1/--) Residential ------(0.8/--) Commercial ------(2/--) Industrial -- (11/--) -- (7/--) --- (10/--) --(1/--) Total Moderate Achievable ------(0.6/--) Residential ------(0.4/--) Commercial ------(1/--) Industrial -- (8/--) -- (5/--) -- (11/--) ---(0.5/--) Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report End Year Length (years)

2030 22

TX

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

103

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for Virginiai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Virginia has been estimated four times – twice each at the region and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Virginia. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. The proportion of Virginia’s forecasted avoided electricity consumption by sector is very similar to those forecasted for the South Atlantic census region, where the commercial sector provides the largest proportion of savings, followed by the residential sector. The industrial sector provides more modest savings in comparison to the other two sectors. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in Virginia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the main contributors to the savings potential are the residential and commercial sectors. Meanwhile, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.

104

Meta-Review Results

A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Virginia can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of Virginia out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 48 trillion Btu by 2020, or about the amount consumed by 954,000 Virginia households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Virginia, by Sector

105

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Virginia, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 48 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by one and a half power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO 2009 already forecasts commercial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, growth in consumption from the residential and industrial sectors drive Virginia’s future electricity consumption. With the maximum achievable case, the total electricity consumption in Virginia in 2020 is virtually unchanged from 2007 levels. See Figure 3.

106

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Virginia, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

The avoided consumption of natural gas under the maximum achievable scenario is projected to be 16.7 trillion Btu or about 7.3% of the total projected natural gas consumption in 2020 for Virginia. Under all scenarios, the industrial sector consumption in 2020 is less than 2007 levels. Both the residential and commercial sectors consume slightly more in 2020 than in 2007 under the maximum achievable scenario. The total natural gas consumption under the maximum achievable scenario in 2020 is approximately at 2007 levels, showing that the industrial sector reductions are offset by the increase in the residential and commercial sectors. See Figure 4.

107

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of Virginia Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. Virginia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 5. ACEE et al. (2008) 6. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 2025 2020

Length 22 20 18 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia Virginia Virginia

Regional Studies •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

108

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. •

American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Summit Blue Consulting, ICF International, and Synapse Energy Economics. 2008. Energizing Virginia: Efficiency First. ACEEE Report No. E085. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e085.htm

This study estimates the potential for energy efficiency to reduce forecast electricity needs in Virginia out to 2025. The report was developed because the state of Virginia appeared to be moving towards a favorable policy environment for types of policies included, and the state was not already a leader in the area. Low, medium, and high (degrees of aggressiveness) policy potentials are examined. Under the medium policy scenario, the study finds that efficiency can replace 8% of the forecast by 2015 and 19% by 2025.

109

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Virginia Study Ref

South Census

Appalachia

EPRI (2009)

SEEA (2009)

VA Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15

2030 20 Technical ----Residential ----Commercial ----Industrial -- (31/--) ---Total Economic ---- (26/--) -Residential ---- (28/--) -Commercial ---- (25/--) -Industrial -- (13/--) --- (31/--) -Total Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) -- (25/--) -Residential -28 (30/22) -- (29/--) -Commercial -22 (42/15) -- (27/--) -Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- (27/--) --(11/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---- (18/--) -Residential ---(21/--) -Commercial ---- (19/--) -Industrial -- (8/--) --- (20/--) -Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report End Year Length (years)

2030 22

VA ACEEE et al. (2008) 2025 18

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009).

iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

110

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for West Virginiai Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for West Virginia has been estimated three times. West Virginia is included in two regional studies, and a state estimate for West Virginia was developed by Elliott & Shipley (2005). In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of West Virginia. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State. West Virginia’s forecasted consumption trends in each sector are similar to the South Atlantic census region. For the avoided electricity consumption in the maximum achievable case, the proportions of gains from the industrial sector in West Virginia are larger than those for the South Atlantic region. However, the proportion of gains from the commercial sector is projected to be less than those for the South Atlantic region. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in West Virginia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply. Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable Potential

Figure 1a. By Fuel

Figure 1b. By Sector

Figure 1 shows the largest contributor to the savings potential is the industrial sector. Energy efficiency savings from electricity is also predicted to exceed that of natural gas. 111

Meta-Review Results

A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of West Virginia can be made by relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the state of West Virginia out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report. Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 13 trillion Btu by 2020 or about the amount consumed by 255,000 West Virginia households in 2006.ii These savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in West Virginia, by Sector

112

Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for West Virginia, by Sector and Type

Figure 3a. Residential

Figure 3b. Commercial

Figure 3c. Industrial

Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 13 trillion Btu is also about the energy produced by slightly less than half a power plant.iii This reduction is about 11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007, growth in consumption from the residential and commercial sectors drive West Virginia’s future electricity consumption. The maximum achievable potential could bring consumption in 2020 to about 2007 levels or less for all sectors except the commercial sector. See Figure 3.

113

Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for West Virginia, by Sector and Type

Figure 4a. Residential

Figure 4b. Commercial

Figure 4c. Industrial

Figure 4d. Total

The total avoided natural gas consumption is projected to be 7.8 trillion Btu for the maximum achievable scenario, or about 7.3% of the projected natural gas consumption in 2020. The maximum achievable scenario will result in decreased 2020 industrial sector consumption of natural gas to less than 2007 levels; however, residential and commercial sector consumption will increase modestly. Overall, the industrial sector decrease in consumption outweighs the gains from residential and commercial sectors, allowing the total consumption of natural gas in West Virginia to fall below 2007 levels in 2020 with the maximum achievable scenario. See Figure 4.

114

References Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from: http://factfinder.census.gov. Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). Meta-review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Assessment of Implications for the South. Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html. Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009). Appendix: Summary of West Virginia Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates. Table 1. West Virginia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Study 1. EPRI (2009) 2. SEEA (2009) 3. Elliott & Shipley (2005)

End Year 2030 2030 2020

Length 22 20 15

Region South Census Region Appalachia West Virginia

Regional Studies •

Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009. Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335

This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package. •

EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987

This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to 115

inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups." State Studies • Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm

This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences, the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable energy policies.

116

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of West Virginia Study Ref End Year Length (years)

South Census EPRI (2009) 2030

Appalachia SEEA (2009) 2030

WV Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020

22

20

15

-----

-----

Technical Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (31/--) Economic

--------Maximum Achievable -15 (11/23) -Residential -28 (30/22) -Commercial -22 (42/15) -Industrial -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- (10/--) Total Moderate Achievable ---Residential ---Commercial ---Industrial -- (8/--) --Total Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'. -- Estimate not presented in report Residential Commercial Industrial Total

----- (13/--)

i

This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants. ii

Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA, 2009). iii

Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).

117