Sensitivity Simulations

Project simulations Initial investment Variables for a given project Traffic volume Toll rate for entire stretch Life of project

10000 Pessimistic Expected Optimistic 750 1000 1250 13.5 15 16.5 3 5 7

Expected variables P&L Statement 1

2

3

4

5

15000 3333 11667 5834 5834

15000 2222 12778 6389 6389

15000 1481 13519 6760 6760

15000 988 14012 7006 7006

15000 658 14342 7171 7171

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

9167

8611

8241

7994

7829

NPV

31,962

1

2

3

4

5

11250 3333 7917 3959 3959

11250 2222 9028 4514 4514

11250 1481 9769 4885 4885

11250 988 10262 5131 5131

11250 658 10592 5296 5296

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

7292

6736

6366

6119

5954

NPV

24,854

1

2

3

4

5

13500 3333

13500 2222

13500 1481

13500 988

13500 658

Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

Pessimistic traffic P&L Statement Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

Pessimistic toll rates P&L Statement Investment Revenue Depreciation

0 -10000

Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

10167 5084 5084

11278 5639 5639

12019 6010 6010

12512 6256 6256

12842 6421 6421

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

8417

7861

7491

7244

7079

NPV

29,119

1

2

3

4

5

15000 3333 11667 5834 5834

20625 2222 18403 9202 9202

0 1481 -1481 -741 -741

0 988 -988 -494 -494

0 658 -658 -329 -329

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

9167

11424

741

494

329

NPV

18,330

1

2

3

4

5

18750 3333 15417 7709 7709

18750 2222 16528 8264 8264

18750 1481 17269 8635 8635

18750 988 17762 8881 8881

18750 658 18092 9046 9046

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

11042

10486

10116

9869

9704

NPV

39,070

1

2

3

4

5

Pessimistic Project life P&L Statement Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

Optimistic Traffic P&L Statement Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

Optimistic Toll rates P&L Statement 0

Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

-10000 16500 3333 13167 6584 6584

16500 2222 14278 7139 7139

16500 1481 15019 7510 7510

16500 988 15512 7756 7756

16500 658 15842 7921 7921

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

9917

9361

8991

8744

8579

NPV

34,805

1

2

3

4

5

15000 3333 11667 5834 5834

15000 2222 12778 6389 6389

15000 1481 13519 6760 6760

15000 988 14012 7006 7006

15000 658 14342 7171 7171

0

1

2

3

4

5

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

9167

8611

8241

7994

7829

NPV

40,243

Optimistic project duration P&L Statement Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

Summary: NPV

Traffic volume Toll rate for entire stretch Life of project

Pessimistic Expected 24,854 29,119 31,962 18,330

Optimistic 39,070 34,805 40,243

6

7

15000 439 14561 7281 7281

15000 293 14707 7354 7354

6

7

7720

7647

6

7

11250 439 10811 5406 5406

11250 293 10957 5479 5479

6

7

5845

5772

6

7

13500 439

13500 293

13061 6531 6531

13207 6604 6604

6

7

6970

6897

6

7

0 439 -439 -220 -220

0 293 -293 -147 -147

6

7

220

147

6

7

18750 439 18311 9156 9156

18750 293 18457 9229 9229

6

7

9595

9522

6

7

16500 439 16061 8031 8031

16500 293 16207 8104 8104

6

7

8470

8397

6

7

15000 439 14561 7281 7281

15000 293 14707 7354 7354

6

7

7720

7647

Project simulations Initial investment Variables for a given project Traffic volume Toll rate for entire stretch Life of project NPV

10000 Expected Scenario assumptions 1000 1250 15 13.5 5 5 31,962 35,516

Expected variables P&L Statement 1

2

3

4

16875 3333 13542 6771 6771

16875 2222 14653 7327 7327

16875 1481 15394 7697 7697

16875 988 15887 7944 7944

0

1

2

3

4

PAT+Depreciation

-10000

10104

9549

9178

8932

NPV

35,516

Investment Revenue Depreciation Profit before tax Tax PAT Cash Flow Statement

0 -10000

5

6

7

16875 658 16217 8109 8109

16875 439 16436 8218 8218

16875 293 16582 8291 8291

5

6

7

8767

8657

8584

Possible event

Optimistic Traffic Growth Expected traffic growth Pessimistic traffic growth

Year 1 Cash flow 11042 9167 7292

Expected Cash flow NPV

Probability

Year 2 Cash flow Probability

Expected value 0.2 0.5 0.3

2208 4583 2187 8979

11,907

10486 8611 6736

0.3 0.5 0.2

Year 3 Expected value Cash flow Probability Expected value 3146 4306 1347 8799

10116 8241 6366

0.4 0.4 0.2

4046 3296 1273 8616