Senate Race And Congressional Approval 100509

THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER October 5, 2009 AYOTTE STILL LEADS IN NH SENATE BUT FEW VOTERS DECIDED By:

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center 603/862-2226

DURHAM, NH – Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte still holds a lead over Second District Congressman Paul Hodes in the race for the US Senate from New Hampshire although he does much better against other Republican challengers, Sean Mahoney and Ovide Lamontagne. However, with three Republicans currently contesting for the GOP nomination, and with the election more than a year off, only 6% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who they will support and 86% are still trying to decide who they will ultimately vote for. ∗

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred and three (503) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 25 and October 2, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 466 likely 2010 general election voters (margin of sampling error +/-4.5%), a subsample of 251 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-6.2%), and a subsample of 253 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.2%). 2010 U.S. Senate Race With Senator Judd Gregg not seeking reelection, the New Hampshire Senate seat is one of the most closely watched in the country. Democrats see an opportunity to pick up both of New Hampshire’s Senate seats while Republicans see this as a “must win” in order to have enough votes to block Democrats in the Senate. Second District Congressman Paul Hodes is the only Democrat thus far in the race, and three Republicans, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, Manchester attorney and former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, and Portsmouth businessman and Republican National Committee member Sean Mahoney, have either declared their intention to seek the seat or are actively weighing their chances. But with more than a year until the election, most voters have not yet decided on who they plan to support. Only 6% say they have definitely decided who they plan to vote for, 8% say they are leaning toward a candidate, and 86% say they have considered some candidates, but are still trying to decide who to support. Favorability Ratings of Potential Senate Candidates

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The NH Senate race is also wide open because most of the candidates are not well known to voters. Congressman Hodes has run three times in New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, but he remains unknown to a plurality of New Hampshire adults. Currently, only 30% of Granite Staters have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 26% have an unfavorable opinion, 7% are neutral, and 37% don’t know enough about him to say. Hodes’ net favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is a surprisingly low +4%, down slightly from +9% in June.

We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes Statewide

100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

A

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50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte slightly less well known than Hodes, but is better liked. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 37% of NH adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 8% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 6% are Favorable Unfavorable neutral, and 49% don’t know enough about her to say. Ayotte’s net favorability is a solid +29%, but down from +37% in June. Favorability Ratings – Kelly Ayotte Statewide

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% June '09

Oct. '09

Favorable

Unfavorable

Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne has not officially entered the race, but is definitely generating interest for a possible run. He has worked hard to get press attention over the summer, yet still remains largely unknown across the state -- only 11% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of him, 7% have an unfavorable opinion, 7% are neutral, and 75% don’t know enough about him to say. Lamontagne’s net favorability rating is +4%, unchanged since June.

Favorability Ratings – Ovide Lamontagne Statewide

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Portsmouth businessman Sean Mahoney is known Republican party insiders as one of the New Hampshire’s representatives Jun.to'09 Oct. '09 on the Republican National Committee, but is largely unknown across the state. Currently, only 5% have a favorable opinion of Mahoney, 3% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 6% are neutral, and 86% don’t know enough about him to say. Mahoney’s net favorability is +2%. Favorable Unfavorable Senate Trial Heats Ayotte campaign has been trying to show that she is the strongest Republican to take on Hodes and the current Granite State Poll bears this out. In a hypothetical Hodes - Ayotte race, 40% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Ayotte, 33% would back Hodes, 2% would back some other candidate, and 25% are undecided. Ayotte’s lead over Hodes has increased slightly since June when she led by a 39% to 35% margin. Ayotte is doing better than Hodes among her party, getting 76% of the Republican vote compared to Hodes getting 61% of the Democratic vote, and she also leads among political independents by 35% to 26%. US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hodes 100% 90% 76%

80% 70%

61%

60% 50% 40%

40% 39%

35%

37%

33% 35% 26%

30%

29%

25% 24% 16%

20% 7%

10%

8%

0% Ayotte All Voters - Oct. 2009

Hodes All Voters - June 2009

Don't Know GOP

IND

DEM

Lamontagne’s lack of name recognition is a problem for him versus Hodes. Currently, 37% of 2010 likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Hodes, 28% said they would vote for Lamontagne, 2% would chose some other candidate, and 33% are unsure. Hodes leads Lamontagne among independent voters by 35% to 15%.

US Senate – Lamontagne vs. Hodes

100% 90% 80%

67%

70%

57%

60%

48%

50% 40% 30%

37%

35%

28% 15%

20% 10%

33% 33%

28%

8%

4%

0% Hodes Sean Mahoney runs identically Lamontagne against Hodes as does Lamontagne despite not having expressed interest in the raceDon't until recently. Hodes currently leads Mahoney 37% to 28% among likely voters, 2% for some other candidate, and 33% are undecided. All Voters GOP IND DEM

Know

US Senate – Mahoney vs. Hodes

100% 90% 80%

67%

70%

59%

60%

47%

50% 40% 30% 20%

37%

33% 32%

29%

28%

30%

17% 9%

10%

0%

0% Mahoney

Hodes All Voters

GOP

Don't Know IND

DEM

Favorability Ratings – Jeanne Shaheen Senator Jeanne Shaheen has seen a slight increase in her favorability ratings among Granite State residents in recent months. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 51% of New Hampshire adults view her favorably, 36% view her unfavorably, and 12% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is +15%, up from +10% in April. Shaheen is viewed very favorably by Democrats (net +76%), favorably by Independents (net +26%), but very unfavorably by Republicans (net –48%). Favorability Ratings – Jeanne Shaheen 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

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50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Favorable

Unfavorable

Favorability Ratings – Senator Judd Gregg Republican Senator Judd Gregg is still very popular in the Granite State. Currently, 56% of New Hampshire residents have a favorable opinion of Gregg, 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 20% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Gregg’s net favorability rating is +33%. Greg is viewed very favorably by Republicans (net +68%), somewhat favorably by Independents (net +22%), and slightly favorably by Democrats (net +5%). Favorability Ratings – Senator Judd Gregg

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Favorable

Unfavorable

Congressional Favorability Ratings –NH 1st District First District Congressperson Carol Shea-Porter’s favorability ratings have remained stable over the past year. Currently, 42% of adults in the NH First Congressional District have a favorable opinion of her, 31% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 27% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating stands at +11%, unchanged since June. Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter NH 1st District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '06 Sep. '06

Feb. '07

Apr. July '07 Sep. '07 '07

Feb. '08

Favorable

Apr. July '08 Sep. '08 '08

Feb. '09

Apr. '09

June '09

Oct. '09

Unfavorable

Among Shea-Porter’s potential Republican challengers, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is the best known. Currently, 28% of First District adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 11% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 61% are either neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Guinta’s net favorability rating is +17%, down slightly from +22% in April. Former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, who challenged for the Republican nomination for the First District in 2008, is considering a run in 2010. Currently, 18% of First District adults have favorable opinion of Stephen, 10% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 72% are either neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Stephen’s net favorability rating is +8%, unchanged since this was last measured in June 2008. Favorability Ratings – John Stephen NH 1st District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sep. '07

Feb. '08

Apr. '08

July '08

Sep. '08

Favorable

Feb. '09

Unfavorable

Apr. '09

June '09

Oct. '09

Congressional Favorability Ratings –NH 2nd District Second District Congressman Paul Hodes’ favorability ratings in his district have been declining as he concentrates on a run for the US Senate. In the latest Granite State Poll, 38% of adults in the NH Second Congressional District view him favorably, 27% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 35% are neutral or don’t know enough about him to say. Hodes’ net favorability stands at +11% in the Second District, down from +19% in June. Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes NH 2nd District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

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50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Favorable

Unfavorable

Journalist Jennifer Horn, who lost to Hodes in 2008, is running again for the open 2nd District seat in 2010. Although she ran better than expected in 2008, Horn remains an unknown figure among adults in the Second Congressional district. Currently, 13% of residents of the Second Congressional District have a favorable opinion of her, 10% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 7% are neutral, and 70% don’t know enough to say. Horn’s net favorability is +3%, up from -1% in April. Favorability Ratings – Jennifer Horn NH 2nd District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr. '08

July '08

Sep. '08

Favorable

Feb. '09

Apr. '09

June '09

Oct. '09

Unfavorable

The most formidable Republican challenger for the Second District seat is former Congressman Charlie Bass, who held the seat from 1994 to 2006 when he lost to Paul Hodes. Bass remains largely popular in the district with 39% having a favorable opinion of him, 22% having an unfavorable opinion, and 38% neutral or who don’t know enough about him to say. Bass’ net favorability rating is +17%.

On the Democratic side, Katrina Swett, who challenged Bass in 2002, is viewed favorably by 12% of Second District adults, 17% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 71% are neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Swett’s net favorability rating is a low -5%. Concord attorney Ann McClane Kuster is also running for the Second District seat, but remains largely unknown to residents of the District. Currently, 6% of Second District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 2% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 92% are either neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred and three (503) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 25 and October 2, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 466 likely 2010 general election voters (margin of sampling error +/-4.5%), a subsample of 251 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-6.2%), and a subsample of 253 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.2%). The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.

Firmness of NH Senate Vote “I know that it is early, but have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election in 2010 … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?” Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying to Decide N=

Oct. ‘09 6% 8% 86% (458) US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hodes *

"If the 2010 Senate election was being held today and the candidates were Kelly Ayotte the Republican and Paul Hodes, the Democrat, who would you vote for?" ROTATE CANDIDATES Ayotte Hodes Other Don’t know / undecided (N=)

Jun. ‘09 39% 35% 2% 24% (497)

Oct. ‘09 40% 33% 2% 25% (408)

US Senate – Lamontagne vs. Hodes * “If the 2010 Senate Election was being held today and the candidates were Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican, and Paul Hodes, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Lamontagne Hodes Other Don’t know / undecided (N=)

Oct. ‘09 28% 37% 2% 33% (408)

US Senate – Mahoney vs. Hodes * “If the 2010 Senate Election was being held today and the candidates were Sean Mahoney, the Republican, and Paul Hodes, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Mahoney Hodes Other Don’t know / undecided (N=)

Oct. ‘09 28% 37% 2% 33% (456)

* Due to a programming error in the rotation of candidate names, 48 random respondents were not asked trial heat questions about Ayotte vs. Hodes and Lamontagne vs. Hodes. As this occurred at random, this should have no impact on the survey findings.

Favorability Rating –Kelly Ayotte “Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte” Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09

Favorable 37% 45%

Neutral 6% 7%

Unfavorable 8% 8%

Don’t Know 49% 40%

(N) (501) (556)

Favorability Rating –Ovide Lamontagne “Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Attorney Ovide Lamontagne” Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09

Favorable 11% 10%

Neutral 7% 7%

Unfavorable 7% 6%

Don’t Know 75% 77%

(N) (501) (557)

Favorability Rating –Sean Mahoney “Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Sean Mahoney” Statewide Oct. ‘09

Favorable 5%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 3%

Don’t Know 86%

(N) (502)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Paul Hodes – Statewide “Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congressman Paul Hodes” Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sep. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07 Apr. ‘07 Feb. ‘07 Sept. ‘06 July ‘06 Apr. ‘06 Feb. ‘06 Oct. ‘05

Favorable 30% 32% 34% 36% 23% 32% 30% 30% 27% 26% 27% 24% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6%

Neutral 7% 8% 8% 15% 10% 12% 17% 18% 17% 12% 17% 19% 17% 8% 6% 10% 9%

Unfavorable 26% 23% 22% 13% 21% 17% 19% 17% 16% 17% 16% 14% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5%

Don’t Know 37% 37% 35% 36% 47% 40% 34% 34% 40% 45% 41% 42% 70% 81% 83% 82% 81%

(N) (501) (557) (502) (619) (548) (517) (498) (554) (506) (507) (515) (535) (513) (501) (505) (502) (510)

Favorability Rating – Senator Jeanne Shaheen "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator (Former Governor/Governor) Jeanne Shaheen." Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sep. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07

Favorable 51% 50% 47% 56% 47% 53% 56% 57% 56% 60%

Neutral 5% 6% 7% 7% 5% 9% 10% 13% 11% 9%

Unfavorable 36% 36% 37% 32% 40% 31% 29% 23% 25% 24%

Don’t Know 7% 8% 9% 5% 8% 6% 5% 7% 8% 8%

(N) (502) (557) (503) (617) (522) (472) (500) (555) (506) (520)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Senator Judd Gregg "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator Judd Gregg." Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sept. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07 Apr. ‘07 Feb. ‘07 Sept. ‘06 July ‘06 Apr. ‘06 Feb. ‘06 Oct. ‘05 July ‘05 July ‘04 Apr. ‘04 Feb. ‘04 Oct. ‘03 June ‘03 Apr. ‘03 Feb. ‘03 June ‘02 Apr. ‘02 Feb. ‘02 Oct. ‘01

Favorable 56% 53% 47% 64% 47% 53% 52% 50% 49% 48% 53% 48% 53% 58% 61% 59% 58% 61% 66% 59% 63% 63% 58% 61% 58% 58% 60% 62% 62%

Neutral 7% 9% 7% 9% 9% 10% 11% 13% 12% 11% 13% 15% 15% 11% 12% 14% 10% 8% 8% 11% 12% 8% 10% 8% 8% 10% 6% 9% 9%

Unfavorable 23% 24% 37% 15% 23% 23% 27% 25% 26% 27% 23% 25% 19% 17% 15% 15% 20% 18% 13% 15% 10% 14% 16% 13% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13%

Don’t Know 13% 14% 9% 12% 22% 13% 10% 12% 13% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 15% 15% 16% 16% 18% 16% 15% 18% 14% 16%

(N) (502) (557) (503) (617) (547) (474) (497) (555) (508) (516) (515) (533) (513) (503) (505) (501) (510) (501) (508) (541) (509) (496) (514) (507) (652) (638) (691) (724) (679)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter” 1st C.D. Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sep. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07 Apr. ‘07 Feb. ‘07 Sept. ‘06 July ‘06

Favorable 42% 41% 38% 38% 44% 35% 39% 43% 33% 39% 42% 40% 16% 7%

Neutral 7% 8% 4% 10% 5% 9% 12% 13% 17% 15% 15% 17% 14% 7%

Unfavorable 31% 30% 35% 26% 31% 32% 28% 17% 21% 18% 20% 15% 5% 0%

Don’t Know 20% 21% 23% 27% 20% 24% 21% 26% 29% 28% 24% 28% 65% 86%

(N) (248) (287) (260) (311) (251) (235) (251) (267) (228) (252) (251) (248) (266) (256)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Paul Hodes - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congressman Paul Hodes.” (Respondents were asked about Concord Attorney Paul Hodes from April 2004 to September 2006.) 2nd C.D. Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sep. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07 Apr. ‘07 Feb. ‘07 Sept. ‘06 July ‘06 Apr. ‘06 Feb. ‘06 Oct. ‘05 July ‘04 Apr. ‘04

Favorable 38% 42% 41% 46% 28% 42% 38% 37% 35% 34% 34% 28% 11% 11% 10% 10% 7% 8% 6%

Neutral 6% 7% 9% 14% 10% 11% 16% 18% 15% 8% 13% 18% 17% 9% 6% 11% 7% 8% 7%

Unfavorable 27% 23% 20% 13% 22% 16% 18% 18% 16% 21% 18% 14% 6% 4% 4% 1% 4% 2% 2%

Don’t Know 29% 28% 30% 27% 40% 31% 27% 27% 34% 36% 36% 39% 66% 77% 81% 78% 83% 81% 86%

(N) (250) (265) (238) (308) (271) (238) (247) (287) (278) (254) (264) (286) (248) (246) (235) (232) (230) (238) (271)

Net Favorability Ratings

Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09 Feb. ‘09 Sept. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07 July ‘07 Apr. ‘07 Feb. ‘07 Sept. ‘06 July ‘06 Apr. ‘06 Feb. ‘06 Oct. ‘05 July ‘05 July ‘04 Apr. ‘04 Feb. ‘04 Oct. ‘03 June ‘03 Apr. ‘03 Feb. ‘03 June ‘02 Apr. ‘02 Feb. ‘02 Oct. ‘01

Shea-Porter (1st CD) +11% +11% +3% +12% +13% +3% +11% +26% +12% +21% +22% +25% +11% +7% ----------------

Hodes (2nd CD) +11% +19% +21% +33% +6% +26% +20% +19% +19% +13% +16% +14% +5% +7% +6% +9% +3% -------------

Hodes (State) +4% +9% +12% +23% +2% +15% +11% +13% +11% +9% +11% +10% +2% +4% +5% +4% +1% -------------

Gregg (State) +33% +29% +32% +49% +24% +30% +25% +25% +23% +21% +30% +23% +34% +41% +46% +44% +38% +43% +53% +44% +53% +49% +42% +48% +40% +40% +44% +47% +49%

Shaheen (State) +15% +14% +10% +24% +7% +22% +27% +34% +31% +36% ----------------+29% +28% +29%

Favorability Rating – Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Journalist Jennifer Horn.” 1st C.D. Oct. ‘09

Favorable 28%

Neutral 9%

Unfavorable 11%

Don’t Know 52%

(N) (251)

April ‘09

30%

12%

8%

51%

(260)

Favorability Rating – Former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.” 1st C.D. Oct. ‘09

Favorable 18%

Neutral 6%

Unfavorable 10%

Don’t Know 66%

(N) (251)

July ‘08 Apr. ‘08 Feb. ‘08 Sept. ‘07

19% 19% 16% 15%

8% 13% 17% 14%

11% 9% 12% 11%

62% 59% 55% 60%

(235) (251) (267) (228)

Favorability Rating – Jennifer Horn - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Journalist Jennifer Horn.” 2nd C.D. Oct. ‘09

Favorable 13%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 10%

Don’t Know 70%

(N) (250)

April ‘09

14%

9%

15%

51%

(238)

Sep. ‘08 July ‘08 Apr. ‘08

16% 9% 7%

7% 11% 14%

12% 4% 2%

65% 77% 77%

(271) (238) (248)

Favorability Rating –Charlie Bass – 2nd District “Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former Congressman Charlie Bass” Statewide Oct. ‘09 Jun. ‘09 Apr. ‘09

Favorable 39% 38% 34%

Neutral 10% 8% 9%

Unfavorable 22% 26% 28%

Don’t Know 28% 29% 29%

(N) (250) (276) (238)

Sept. ‘06 July ‘06 Apr. ‘06 Feb. ‘06 Oct. ‘05 July ‘05 July ‘04 Apr. ‘04 Feb. ‘04 Oct. ‘03 June ‘03 Apr. ‘03 Feb. ‘03 June ‘02 Apr. ‘02 Feb. ‘02 Oct. ‘01

48% 58% 49% 51% 49% 50% 55% 54% 45% 59% 54% 49% 59% 53% 52% 59% 56%

12% 10% 12% 18% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% 14% 11% 7% 15% 11% 9% 13%

27% 18% 20% 19% 25% 20% 14% 16% 23% 17% 15% 13% 19% 18% 18% 16% 15%

13% 13% 19% 13% 14% 17% 19% 17% 20% 14% 17% 27% 16% 15% 29% 27% 27%

(248) (246) (233) (232) (226) (232) (238) (274) (265) (259) (241) (238) (318) (306) (333) (265) (353)

Favorability Rating – Attorney Ann McClane Kuster - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Attorney Ann McClane Kuster.” Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t know (N=)

Oct. ‘09 6% 5% 2% 87% (252)

Favorability Rating – Businesswoman Katrina Swett - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businesswoman Katrina Swett.” Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t know (N=)

Oct. ‘09 12% 10% 17% 61% (252)

Firmness of choice for New Hampshire Senate

STATEWIDE Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

Definitely Decided 6%

Leaning Toward Someone 8%

Still Trying To Decide 86%

(N=) 458

10% 3% 5%

12% 6% 10%

78% 91% 85%

120 186 135

Democrat Independent Republican

9% 3% 4%

10% 4% 9%

82% 93% 86%

193 68 193

Liberal Moderate Conservative

13% 4% 4%

9% 7% 11%

78% 88% 84%

88 186 157

Union household Non-union

11% 5%

11% 8%

79% 86%

62 391

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

7% 4% 7%

7% 7% 10%

87% 89% 84%

72 89 291

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

7% 5% 7% 6%

5% 2% 14% 9%

89% 93% 79% 85%

33 129 187 101

Male Female

6% 5%

9% 8%

85% 86%

228 230

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

6% 6% 4% 9%

5% 9% 6% 16%

89% 85% 89% 75%

76 96 192 91

2% 2% 10% 5% 13%

0% 9% 14% 10% 8%

98% 89% 75% 85% 79%

31 62 49 59 117

Married Divorced/separated Never married

7% 4% 3%

10% 6% 5%

84% 90% 91%

340 73 40

Protestant Catholic Other

6% 7% 3%

6% 10% 9%

87% 82% 87%

161 183 95

10% 6% 5% 4%

9% 5% 11% 7%

81% 88% 85% 89%

107 68 147 125

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

1% 4% 8% 9% 3% 5%

12% 11% 3% 6% 8% 14%

87% 85% 89% 85% 88% 81%

47 72 60 145 63 72

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

4% 8%

11% 6%

85% 86%

227 232

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

US Senate – Kelly Ayotte vs. Paul Hodes – Likely Voters Ayotte 40%

Hodes 33%

Other 2%

DK 25%

(N) 408

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

5% 38% 77%

63% 29% 8%

3% 2% 1%

30% 31% 14%

114 160 120

Democrat Independent Republican

7% 35% 76%

61% 26% 8%

4% 2% 0%

29% 37% 16%

174 64 169

Liberal Moderate Conservative

9% 33% 69%

69% 36% 12%

5% 1% 1%

17% 30% 17%

82 165 140

Definitely decided vote Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide

33% 46% 40%

61% 41% 30%

7% 0% 2%

0% 13% 28%

23 38 344

Union household Non-union

29% 42%

50% 31%

0% 2%

20% 25%

54 348

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

28% 34% 45%

39% 38% 31%

2% 3% 2%

32% 26% 22%

70 78 255

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

34% 41% 40% 41%

31% 30% 35% 38%

0% 3% 2% 1%

35% 26% 23% 20%

35 118 164 84

Male Female

45% 35%

28% 38%

1% 2%

25% 24%

208 200

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

44% 31% 47% 31%

35% 39% 28% 39%

3% 2% 1% 1%

19% 28% 24% 29%

69 84 171 82

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

35% 48% 20% 49% 37%

45% 33% 52% 21% 38%

0% 4% 0% 0% 2%

20% 14% 29% 30% 24%

29 55 46 57 97

Married Divorced/separated Never married

43% 31% 37%

34% 38% 29%

1% 4% 0%

23% 27% 35%

299 68 36

Protestant Catholic Other

51% 40% 25%

29% 29% 47%

2% 1% 4%

18% 30% 24%

140 158 95

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

55% 40% 41% 28%

29% 31% 28% 45%

2% 0% 1% 3%

14% 29% 30% 24%

90 62 135 113

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

41% 47% 41% 35% 32% 50%

27% 36% 44% 36% 31% 21%

0% 0% 0% 5% 3% 0%

32% 17% 16% 24% 34% 28%

41 66 56 123 60 63

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

41% 39%

27% 40%

1% 2%

30% 19%

208 201

STATEWIDE

US Senate – Ovide Lamontagne vs. Paul Hodes – Likely Voters STATEWIDE

Lamontagne 28%

Hodes 37%

Other 2%

DK 33%

(N) 408

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

2% 22% 62%

69% 34% 8%

1% 2% 2%

28% 41% 27%

112 163 119

Democrat Independent Republican

4% 15% 57%

67% 35% 8%

2% 2% 2%

28% 48% 33%

171 65 170

Liberal Moderate Conservative

5% 15% 59%

80% 41% 11%

3% 1% 3%

12% 43% 28%

83 162 142

Definitely decided vote Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide

28% 37% 27%

72% 41% 34%

0% 0% 2%

0% 22% 37%

20 38 344

Union household Non-union

17% 30%

56% 34%

0% 2%

27% 33%

53 348

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

14% 25% 33%

48% 40% 33%

0% 5% 1%

38% 30% 33%

67 83 252

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

17% 25% 31% 31%

43% 32% 37% 42%

0% 3% 1% 1%

40% 39% 30% 25%

35 119 164 83

Male Female

35% 21%

34% 40%

1% 3%

31% 35%

208 200

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

30% 24% 33% 21%

35% 42% 31% 48%

3% 1% 2% 1%

32% 33% 34% 30%

66 87 174 79

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

30% 25% 18% 35% 22%

45% 42% 54% 29% 42%

0% 7% 0% 3% 0%

26% 27% 29% 33% 36%

27 53 47 52 100

Married Divorced/separated Never married

31% 20% 19%

35% 53% 34%

2% 1% 0%

32% 26% 47%

305 61 37

Protestant Catholic Other

34% 29% 16%

31% 33% 52%

2% 1% 4%

32% 37% 28%

133 162 94

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

41% 25% 29% 18%

29% 35% 33% 48%

1% 3% 0% 3%

29% 36% 38% 30%

92 59 130 118

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

24% 35% 18% 30% 26% 33%

28% 38% 45% 40% 36% 32%

0% 2% 3% 2% 3% 0%

49% 26% 34% 29% 35% 36%

42 65 56 126 56 62

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

30% 26%

33% 41%

1% 2%

35% 31%

201 206

US Senate – Sean Mahoney vs. Paul Hodes – Likely Voters STATEWIDE

Mahoney 28%

Hodes 37%

Other 2%

DK 33%

(N) 456

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

1% 22% 63%

69% 34% 9%

1% 5% 1%

29% 39% 28%

123 185 130

Democrat Independent Republican

0% 17% 59%

67% 29% 9%

3% 6% 0%

30% 47% 32%

197 67 187

Liberal Moderate Conservative

1% 19% 56%

80% 40% 12%

5% 1% 2%

15% 40% 30%

92 183 154

Definitely decided vote Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide

33% 26% 28%

67% 49% 33%

0% 0% 3%

0% 26% 37%

27 37 386

Union household Non-union

11% 30%

52% 35%

4% 2%

33% 33%

60 389

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

20% 24% 31%

44% 41% 35%

0% 2% 3%

36% 33% 32%

73 90 286

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

20% 25% 28% 34%

43% 36% 36% 40%

0% 4% 1% 3%

37% 35% 35% 24%

34 127 187 100

Male Female

33% 22%

34% 40%

2% 3%

31% 35%

228 228

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

25% 27% 31% 21%

34% 40% 33% 47%

5% 4% 1% 1%

36% 30% 35% 31%

76 96 189 92

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

29% 32% 9% 39% 21%

41% 44% 56% 24% 46%

2% 4% 2% 3% 0%

27% 20% 32% 34% 34%

31 61 50 58 118

Married Divorced/separated Never married

29% 22% 25%

36% 47% 31%

2% 4% 1%

33% 27% 44%

337 73 41

Protestant Catholic Other

32% 28% 16%

34% 32% 51%

1% 2% 5%

32% 37% 29%

159 178 99

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

46% 24% 24% 17%

28% 37% 34% 48%

2% 2% 3% 2%

24% 37% 40% 33%

104 68 147 127

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

23% 31% 23% 31% 25% 26%

27% 39% 48% 36% 35% 36%

6% 1% 0% 3% 4% 1%

44% 29% 29% 30% 36% 38%

47 72 61 145 63 69

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

28% 27%

32% 41%

3% 1%

36% 30%

224 232

Favorability Rating – Rep. Paul Hodes STATEWIDE

Favorable 30%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 26%

DK 37%

(N) 501

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

51% 31% 15%

2% 11% 8%

8% 25% 47%

39% 33% 29%

130 202 136

Democrat Independent Republican

46% 32% 15%

5% 11% 8%

5% 19% 49%

44% 38% 28%

207 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

55% 36% 15%

5% 9% 8%

4% 24% 42%

36% 32% 35%

97 198 168

Union household Non-union

49% 28%

11% 7%

12% 28%

28% 37%

67 423

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

29% 33% 31%

6% 6% 8%

18% 26% 27%

46% 36% 34%

79 94 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

22% 30% 34% 31%

1% 9% 8% 6%

19% 23% 29% 25%

59% 38% 29% 38%

44 137 200 108

Male Female

29% 32%

8% 7%

33% 18%

30% 43%

246 254

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

26% 26% 27% 48%

7% 12% 6% 5%

26% 17% 29% 25%

40% 45% 38% 23%

88 107 201 98

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

31% 30% 43% 22% 39%

8% 6% 10% 11% 10%

18% 25% 5% 36% 25%

43% 40% 42% 31% 27%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

31% 36% 23%

8% 8% 2%

28% 17% 22%

34% 39% 53%

364 79 49

Protestant Catholic Other

32% 26% 40%

7% 7% 9%

26% 29% 19%

36% 38% 32%

177 195 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

30% 29% 28% 36%

7% 10% 7% 7%

33% 23% 23% 21%

30% 38% 43% 36%

117 70 167 132

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

20% 34% 41% 31% 26% 27%

14% 6% 4% 5% 8% 11%

28% 27% 27% 25% 24% 25%

39% 33% 29% 39% 42% 37%

52 82 67 154 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

23% 38%

8% 6%

25% 27%

44% 29%

251 250

Favorability Rating – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte STATEWIDE

Favorable 37%

Neutral 6%

Unfavorable 8%

DK 49%

(N) 501

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

26% 40% 50%

5% 7% 6%

14% 7% 3%

56% 46% 41%

130 202 136

Democrat Independent Republican

26% 45% 46%

6% 4% 7%

13% 3% 3%

56% 48% 43%

207 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

28% 41% 44%

4% 5% 8%

16% 7% 3%

52% 47% 45%

97 198 168

Union household Non-union

53% 35%

3% 6%

13% 6%

30% 52%

67 424

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

21% 27% 44%

4% 7% 6%

7% 7% 8%

69% 59% 42%

79 95 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

30% 35% 42% 33%

4% 8% 5% 7%

2% 6% 10% 6%

63% 51% 43% 54%

44 137 200 109

Male Female

38% 36%

9% 2%

9% 7%

44% 55%

246 255

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

33% 31% 40% 42%

4% 9% 6% 4%

2% 5% 7% 14%

61% 56% 46% 40%

88 107 201 99

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

21% 37% 40% 43% 43%

7% 0% 5% 10% 8%

10% 7% 11% 5% 9%

61% 56% 43% 42% 41%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

40% 32% 28%

7% 5% 3%

7% 7% 8%

46% 57% 61%

364 80 49

Protestant Catholic Other

37% 39% 36%

7% 5% 7%

8% 6% 9%

48% 50% 48%

177 196 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

39% 33% 39% 36%

6% 4% 5% 8%

9% 6% 7% 7%

47% 58% 49% 50%

117 71 167 132

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

38% 43% 34% 31% 32% 49%

7% 1% 6% 6% 7% 8%

6% 16% 14% 5% 4% 2%

49% 39% 47% 58% 56% 40%

52 82 67 154 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

40% 34%

7% 5%

5% 10%

48% 51%

251 251

Favorability Rating – Attorney Ovide Lamontagne STATEWIDE

Favorable 11%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 7%

DK 75%

(N) 501

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

3% 9% 22%

5% 9% 8%

11% 6% 7%

81% 76% 64%

130 202 136

Democrat Independent Republican

7% 8% 17%

6% 8% 9%

8% 11% 5%

79% 73% 70%

207 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

8% 10% 16%

4% 8% 9%

14% 6% 6%

74% 76% 69%

97 198 168

Union household Non-union

11% 11%

8% 7%

10% 7%

71% 75%

67 424

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

6% 12% 12%

6% 8% 8%

4% 6% 8%

83% 74% 72%

79 95 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

4% 15% 10% 12%

3% 8% 8% 8%

5% 4% 11% 5%

88% 73% 71% 75%

44 137 200 109

Male Female

12% 10%

8% 6%

8% 6%

71% 78%

246 255

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

9% 7% 15% 10%

5% 9% 8% 7%

4% 6% 4% 16%

83% 78% 73% 67%

88 107 201 99

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

9% 11% 9% 9% 16%

7% 3% 8% 14% 8%

2% 5% 17% 8% 10%

82% 82% 67% 69% 66%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

11% 14% 9%

8% 8% 3%

9% 1% 3%

72% 78% 84%

364 80 49

Protestant Catholic Other

9% 13% 12%

7% 9% 7%

5% 5% 11%

79% 73% 71%

177 196 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

18% 6% 8% 11%

7% 9% 5% 9%

3% 7% 9% 8%

72% 78% 78% 72%

117 71 167 132

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

12% 20% 6% 9% 9% 10%

8% 5% 3% 8% 6% 12%

9% 8% 9% 2% 5% 15%

70% 67% 81% 81% 79% 63%

52 82 67 154 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

10% 12%

8% 7%

7% 7%

75% 74%

251 251

Favorability Rating – Businessman Sean Mahoney STATEWIDE

Favorable 5%

Neutral 6%

Unfavorable 3%

DK 86%

(N) 502

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

2% 7% 4%

2% 4% 13%

2% 4% 4%

94% 85% 80%

130 202 137

Democrat Independent Republican

3% 5% 6%

3% 3% 10%

3% 7% 2%

91% 86% 81%

208 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

4% 4% 8%

1% 7% 8%

1% 5% 3%

94% 85% 82%

97 199 168

Union household Non-union

5% 5%

7% 6%

5% 3%

83% 87%

67 425

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

5% 7% 4%

4% 6% 6%

1% 2% 4%

89% 85% 86%

80 95 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

4% 6% 5% 3%

3% 9% 3% 7%

9% 2% 3% 2%

84% 83% 88% 88%

44 138 200 109

Male Female

6% 3%

6% 5%

5% 2%

83% 89%

246 256

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

4% 0% 8% 4%

3% 8% 7% 4%

4% 2% 4% 2%

90% 90% 81% 91%

88 107 201 99

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

5% 4% 0% 9% 7%

6% 1% 5% 8% 5%

7% 0% 5% 1% 3%

82% 95% 90% 82% 85%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

5% 4% 4%

6% 7% 1%

3% 2% 6%

86% 86% 89%

365 80 49

Protestant Catholic Other

7% 5% 2%

4% 7% 7%

1% 3% 7%

87% 86% 85%

177 197 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

4% 7% 5% 3%

7% 6% 3% 7%

1% 2% 4% 4%

88% 85% 88% 85%

117 71 167 133

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

1% 5% 7% 5% 6% 3%

13% 6% 1% 2% 8% 9%

5% 7% 5% 3% 2% 0%

82% 82% 88% 90% 84% 88%

52 82 67 155 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

6% 4%

7% 4%

2% 5%

85% 87%

251 252

Favorability Rating – Senator Judd Gregg STATEWIDE

Favorable 56%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 23%

DK 13%

(N) 502

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

38% 60% 75%

8% 10% 3%

44% 21% 10%

11% 9% 11%

130 202 137

Democrat Independent Republican

43% 46% 75%

6% 13% 6%

38% 24% 7%

12% 17% 11%

208 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

32% 60% 71%

9% 8% 6%

46% 25% 10%

14% 8% 13%

97 199 168

Union household Non-union

44% 59%

10% 7%

37% 21%

9% 13%

67 425

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

43% 52% 62%

12% 6% 6%

22% 23% 23%

22% 19% 10%

80 95 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

48% 56% 59% 58%

7% 7% 8% 5%

7% 23% 27% 21%

37% 15% 5% 16%

44 138 200 109

Male Female

61% 52%

8% 6%

22% 24%

9% 17%

246 256

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

61% 46% 63% 50%

5% 7% 8% 7%

13% 21% 20% 40%

20% 25% 9% 3%

88 107 201 99

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

54% 62% 42% 53% 63%

2% 10% 9% 10% 6%

20% 15% 42% 25% 26%

23% 14% 7% 12% 6%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

58% 58% 46%

7% 9% 5%

24% 19% 16%

11% 14% 33%

365 80 49

Protestant Catholic Other

62% 61% 42%

9% 5% 9%

16% 22% 36%

13% 12% 14%

177 197 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

60% 57% 65% 45%

7% 6% 5% 10%

22% 19% 17% 31%

11% 18% 13% 14%

117 71 167 133

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

60% 45% 63% 53% 64% 60%

3% 16% 3% 8% 6% 3%

24% 25% 20% 22% 21% 26%

13% 14% 13% 16% 9% 11%

52 82 67 155 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

58% 55%

7% 8%

25% 21%

11% 16%

251 252

Favorability Rating – Senator Jeanne Shaheen STATEWIDE

Favorable 51%

Neutral 5%

Unfavorable 36%

DK 7%

(N) 502

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

85% 53% 21%

4% 6% 5%

8% 35% 65%

3% 5% 9%

130 202 137

Democrat Independent Republican

82% 57% 20%

5% 6% 6%

6% 31% 68%

7% 7% 7%

208 78 205

Liberal Moderate Conservative

87% 58% 24%

4% 5% 5%

6% 29% 65%

4% 8% 6%

97 199 168

Union household Non-union

77% 48%

6% 5%

17% 39%

0% 8%

67 425

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

51% 44% 54%

10% 4% 4%

31% 44% 35%

8% 8% 7%

80 95 317

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

50% 56% 51% 47%

4% 3% 8% 3%

24% 36% 36% 40%

22% 4% 5% 10%

44 138 200 109

Male Female

39% 63%

5% 5%

49% 23%

6% 8%

246 256

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

50% 48% 46% 67%

3% 9% 4% 5%

37% 32% 44% 22%

10% 11% 6% 5%

88 107 201 99

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

47% 55% 67% 49% 55%

4% 2% 6% 4% 6%

43% 33% 20% 45% 34%

6% 10% 7% 2% 4%

33 71 53 63 122

Married Divorced/separated Never married

50% 58% 49%

6% 2% 3%

38% 30% 27%

5% 10% 21%

365 80 49

Protestant Catholic Other

46% 52% 59%

6% 5% 2%

41% 36% 27%

6% 7% 11%

177 197 104

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

47% 52% 52% 55%

4% 9% 6% 4%

42% 33% 37% 30%

6% 6% 6% 12%

117 71 167 133

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

53% 46% 43% 52% 62% 53%

7% 4% 4% 7% 4% 3%

33% 41% 45% 34% 27% 38%

7% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6%

52 82 67 155 66 80

First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

55% 47%

3% 7%

34% 38%

7% 8%

251 252

Favorability Rating – Congressperson Carol Shea-Porter FIRST CONG. DIST.

Favorable 42%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 31%

DK 20%

(N) 248

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

70% 46% 14%

5% 9% 9%

8% 26% 61%

16% 19% 15%

69 95 70

Democrat Independent Republican

66% 45% 15%

7% 9% 8%

7% 21% 59%

20% 25% 18%

108 34 100

Liberal Moderate Conservative

78% 45% 20%

3% 13% 3%

4% 24% 57%

15% 17% 20%

42 105 79

Union household Non-union

69% 38%

8% 8%

12% 33%

11% 21%

30 214

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

55% 45% 39%

3% 7% 9%

23% 29% 32%

19% 19% 20%

39 48 154

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

35% 39% 51% 34%

5% 9% 9% 5%

29% 26% 27% 42%

32% 26% 13% 20%

21 72 96 50

Male Female

32% 52%

9% 6%

37% 24%

23% 18%

125 124

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

30% 40% 38% 62%

9% 4% 9% 7%

33% 25% 36% 22%

28% 31% 17% 10%

39 51 102 51

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

35% 41% 50% 41% 44%

11% 6% 2% 11% 9%

20% 31% 14% 46% 30%

34% 22% 34% 3% 17%

16 36 31 31 59

Married Divorced/separated Never married

44% 38% 30%

6% 14% 5%

34% 24% 24%

16% 24% 41%

177 41 25

Protestant Catholic Other

34% 45% 52%

7% 8% 7%

40% 28% 21%

19% 19% 20%

81 106 43

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

39% 43% 44% 43%

7% 10% 7% 9%

36% 33% 29% 23%

18% 14% 20% 26%

61 36 87 54

North Country Central / Lakes Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

43% 34% 44% 56% 28%

10% 4% 5% 6% 12%

30% 26% 31% 24% 39%

17% 36% 20% 13% 21%

25 27 63 66 67

Favorability Rating – Rep. Paul Hodes SECOND CONG. DIST.

Favorable 38%

Neutral 6%

Unfavorable 27%

DK 29%

(N) 250

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

70% 36% 20%

0% 10% 7%

4% 27% 53%

26% 27% 20%

61 105 65

Democrat Independent Republican

60% 32% 21%

2% 14% 8%

3% 15% 54%

35% 38% 18%

99 42 105

Liberal Moderate Conservative

68% 42% 19%

3% 8% 8%

3% 25% 44%

26% 25% 30%

55 91 88

Union household Non-union

64% 34%

5% 7%

8% 30%

24% 29%

35 209

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

36% 37% 38%

8% 5% 6%

19% 27% 28%

38% 31% 27%

41 47 160

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

28% 32% 41% 44%

2% 4% 10% 4%

5% 27% 31% 26%

65% 36% 19% 26%

21 65 104 58

Male Female

35% 40%

6% 7%

38% 16%

21% 37%

120 130

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

32% 32% 33% 62%

7% 11% 4% 5%

29% 15% 34% 22%

32% 43% 29% 11%

49 56 97 47

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

29% 40% 73% 26% 44%

10% 5% 13% 10% 4%

23% 27% 7% 31% 30%

39% 28% 6% 33% 22%

16 35 22 32 63

Married Divorced/separated Never married

37% 47% 31%

7% 6% 2%

29% 21% 18%

27% 26% 49%

187 38 22

Protestant Catholic Other

41% 32% 44%

8% 3% 7%

28% 31% 18%

23% 34% 31%

95 89 59

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

33% 45% 36% 42%

7% 8% 6% 6%

40% 25% 20% 22%

20% 23% 38% 30%

56 33 80 76

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

22% 39% 41% 34% 71%

15% 5% 4% 7% 3%

33% 29% 27% 26% 11%

29% 27% 29% 33% 15%

26 55 67 88 14

Favorability Rating – Former Rep. Charlie Bass SECOND CONG. DIST.

Favorable 39%

Neutral 10%

Unfavorable 22%

DK 28%

(N) 250

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

22% 40% 57%

12% 11% 10%

41% 24% 8%

25% 25% 26%

59 105 67

Democrat Independent Republican

24% 30% 59%

13% 8% 9%

35% 25% 10%

28% 38% 22%

98 42 105

Liberal Moderate Conservative

19% 41% 51%

14% 8% 11%

44% 23% 11%

23% 29% 27%

53 92 88

Union household Non-union

26% 41%

14% 10%

41% 20%

20% 29%

33 210

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

28% 45% 41%

9% 8% 11%

20% 13% 26%

43% 33% 22%

42 47 158

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

19% 35% 45% 43%

2% 15% 10% 9%

23% 19% 27% 17%

55% 30% 18% 31%

21 66 102 58

Male Female

51% 28%

7% 14%

26% 19%

17% 39%

120 130

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

57% 20% 42% 39%

8% 9% 12% 11%

8% 22% 21% 40%

26% 49% 25% 10%

49 56 97 46

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

45% 45% 16% 41% 38%

11% 12% 2% 12% 11%

12% 8% 72% 13% 34%

32% 35% 9% 34% 17%

16 36 20 32 63

Married Divorced/separated Never married

38% 50% 30%

12% 5% 5%

23% 24% 16%

27% 21% 48%

186 38 22

Protestant Catholic Other

40% 39% 39%

9% 12% 12%

23% 21% 26%

28% 28% 23%

93 91 59

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

42% 46% 35% 39%

1% 15% 12% 13%

29% 7% 21% 25%

28% 32% 32% 22%

56 32 80 77

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

27% 45% 40% 40% 30%

6% 13% 7% 14% 0%

24% 26% 21% 15% 57%

43% 16% 32% 30% 13%

26 55 67 88 14

Favorability Rating – Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta FIRST CONG. DIST.

Favorable 28%

Neutral 9%

Unfavorable 11%

DK 52%

(N) 251

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

22% 28% 36%

16% 7% 8%

9% 13% 10%

54% 53% 46%

69 97 70

Democrat Independent Republican

21% 18% 41%

13% 4% 7%

9% 19% 10%

57% 59% 42%

108 36 100

Liberal Moderate Conservative

28% 23% 38%

7% 11% 9%

15% 12% 7%

50% 53% 46%

42 107 79

Union household Non-union

16% 30%

12% 9%

34% 7%

38% 54%

32 215

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

25% 20% 32%

12% 8% 9%

3% 6% 13%

61% 66% 45%

39 48 156

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

28% 29% 31% 25%

11% 13% 6% 8%

10% 10% 10% 10%

52% 47% 52% 57%

23 72 96 51

Male Female

34% 23%

8% 10%

12% 10%

46% 58%

126 124

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

22% 35% 32% 20%

5% 8% 8% 17%

11% 7% 10% 18%

62% 50% 51% 45%

39 51 104 51

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

30% 42% 29% 28% 32%

4% 5% 3% 10% 18%

4% 3% 12% 15% 10%

62% 50% 56% 47% 39%

16 36 31 31 59

Married Divorced/separated Never married

30% 23% 25%

9% 13% 3%

11% 12% 12%

50% 52% 60%

177 41 27

Protestant Catholic Other

28% 35% 18%

6% 11% 11%

8% 11% 19%

58% 44% 52%

81 106 45

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

29% 35% 32% 19%

10% 11% 9% 8%

16% 6% 8% 13%

45% 48% 51% 60%

61 36 87 55

North Country Central / Lakes Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

9% 21% 24% 28% 44%

12% 10% 5% 7% 13%

4% 11% 11% 3% 21%

74% 57% 60% 62% 22%

25 27 65 66 67

Favorability Rating – Journalist Jennifer Horn SECOND CONG. DIST.

Favorable 13%

Neutral 7%

Unfavorable 10%

DK 70%

(N) 250

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

3% 14% 20%

2% 9% 10%

19% 9% 6%

75% 69% 64%

60 105 66

Democrat Independent Republican

2% 3% 27%

4% 0% 14%

14% 14% 5%

80% 83% 54%

98 42 105

Liberal Moderate Conservative

1% 17% 17%

3% 5% 12%

15% 10% 7%

81% 68% 63%

55 91 88

Union household Non-union

5% 14%

5% 8%

12% 9%

78% 68%

35 209

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

8% 16% 13%

12% 7% 6%

9% 8% 11%

71% 69% 70%

41 47 160

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

13% 8% 13% 17%

2% 7% 11% 4%

0% 8% 13% 12%

85% 77% 64% 67%

21 65 104 57

Male Female

18% 8%

8% 7%

8% 12%

67% 73%

119 131

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

13% 13% 11% 15%

8% 1% 10% 8%

8% 11% 9% 14%

70% 76% 70% 63%

49 55 97 48

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

11% 22% 8% 9% 12%

18% 3% 5% 10% 7%

0% 1% 17% 13% 14%

70% 74% 70% 68% 67%

16 36 22 32 63

Married Divorced/separated Never married

13% 10% 16%

9% 5% 2%

11% 5% 9%

68% 80% 73%

187 38 22

Protestant Catholic Other

20% 11% 4%

9% 10% 2%

6% 10% 15%

65% 68% 80%

94 90 59

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

22% 14% 11% 5%

6% 9% 7% 9%

14% 8% 6% 12%

58% 69% 76% 74%

56 34 80 76

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

5% 16% 15% 12% 8%

2% 8% 6% 11% 0%

12% 9% 9% 9% 20%

81% 67% 70% 68% 73%

26 55 66 89 14

Favorability Rating – Attorney Ann McClane Kuster SECOND CONG. DIST. Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

Favorable 6%

Neutral 5%

Unfavorable 2%

DK 87%

(N) 252

9% 8% 1%

1% 5% 12%

2% 2% 3%

88% 85% 84%

61 105 67

Democrat Independent Republican

11% 5% 2%

0% 1% 12%

1% 0% 4%

87% 94% 82%

100 42 105

Liberal Moderate Conservative

7% 10% 2%

0% 4% 10%

0% 1% 4%

92% 84% 84%

55 92 88

Union household Non-union

9% 6%

9% 5%

0% 3%

83% 87%

35 210

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

2% 5% 7%

5% 4% 6%

3% 0% 3%

90% 92% 84%

42 47 160

3% 2% 7% 10%

2% 4% 6% 6%

5% 0% 3% 2%

89% 94% 84% 82%

21 66 104 58

6% 6%

5% 6%

2% 2%

88% 86%

120 132

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

6% 2% 4% 13%

2% 5% 9% 3%

2% 1% 2% 3%

90% 92% 85% 81%

49 56 97 48

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

0% 0% 7% 4% 11%

7% 4% 7% 14% 4%

0% 0% 6% 0% 0%

93% 96% 80% 82% 85%

16 36 22 32 63

Married Divorced/separated Never married

7% 5% 3%

6% 5% 2%

2% 2% 5%

86% 88% 89%

188 38 22

Protestant Catholic Other

6% 8% 5%

7% 5% 4%

3% 1% 2%

84% 86% 89%

95 91 59

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

9% 5% 6% 4%

4% 9% 5% 4%

2% 0% 3% 3%

84% 86% 87% 89%

56 34 80 77

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

5% 7% 3% 9% 0%

7% 10% 1% 5% 3%

0% 5% 4% 0% 0%

88% 78% 92% 86% 97%

26 55 67 90 14

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female

Favorability Rating – Former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen FIRST CONG. DIST.

Favorable 18%

Neutral 6%

Unfavorable 10%

DK 66%

(N) 251

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

7% 15% 32%

9% 5% 5%

8% 14% 8%

76% 66% 55%

69 97 70

Democrat Independent Republican

11% 11% 28%

7% 4% 6%

11% 17% 6%

72% 68% 60%

108 36 100

Liberal Moderate Conservative

14% 15% 28%

4% 7% 7%

17% 12% 4%

65% 66% 62%

42 107 79

Union household Non-union

16% 18%

13% 5%

12% 9%

59% 68%

32 215

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

20% 14% 19%

9% 8% 5%

9% 9% 10%

63% 69% 66%

39 48 156

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

17% 19% 17% 19%

9% 7% 4% 7%

7% 11% 9% 10%

67% 63% 70% 64%

23 72 96 51

Male Female

20% 15%

4% 8%

11% 10%

65% 68%

126 124

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

10% 9% 26% 16%

4% 9% 5% 5%

5% 2% 11% 19%

80% 79% 59% 60%

39 51 104 51

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

3% 10% 21% 19% 24%

4% 0% 3% 14% 9%

10% 7% 11% 6% 16%

83% 83% 64% 61% 51%

16 36 31 31 59

Married Divorced/separated Never married

19% 19% 11%

7% 7% 0%

9% 15% 8%

66% 58% 81%

177 41 27

Protestant Catholic Other

9% 26% 20%

5% 6% 9%

6% 9% 14%

79% 60% 56%

81 106 45

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

20% 21% 18% 10%

5% 9% 4% 9%

11% 9% 11% 7%

63% 61% 67% 74%

61 36 87 55

North Country Central / Lakes Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

21% 11% 11% 12% 31%

12% 2% 3% 9% 4%

13% 17% 12% 5% 10%

53% 70% 74% 73% 55%

25 27 65 66 67

Favorability Rating – Businesswoman Katrina Swett SECOND CONG. DIST.

Favorable 12%

Neutral 10%

Unfavorable 17%

DK 61%

(N) 251

Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican

25% 12% 2%

5% 11% 13%

9% 14% 33%

61% 63% 51%

61 105 66

Democrat Independent Republican

23% 9% 4%

4% 7% 16%

8% 15% 26%

64% 69% 53%

99 42 105

Liberal Moderate Conservative

28% 12% 5%

2% 12% 12%

9% 17% 24%

62% 59% 58%

55 91 88

Union household Non-union

28% 10%

15% 9%

10% 18%

47% 63%

35 209

10 yrs or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years

2% 10% 15%

8% 13% 9%

17% 18% 16%

73% 59% 59%

41 47 160

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

0% 12% 13% 17%

2% 12% 11% 8%

8% 15% 25% 7%

89% 61% 51% 68%

21 65 104 58

Male Female

8% 16%

10% 10%

28% 6%

54% 68%

120 131

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

12% 10% 9% 23%

6% 5% 17% 6%

6% 12% 18% 32%

77% 74% 57% 39%

49 56 97 48

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

11% 9% 10% 12% 21%

30% 5% 11% 20% 9%

0% 11% 22% 17% 23%

60% 75% 56% 51% 47%

16 36 22 32 63

Married Divorced/separated Never married

14% 10% 8%

11% 11% 2%

18% 13% 12%

58% 66% 78%

187 38 22

Protestant Catholic Other

14% 14% 9%

17% 6% 3%

15% 16% 23%

54% 64% 66%

95 90 59

Attend services 1 or more/week 1-2 times a month Less often Never

17% 16% 11% 10%

6% 16% 9% 10%

19% 4% 20% 18%

58% 65% 61% 62%

56 34 80 76

North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

12% 13% 8% 14% 20%

4% 13% 9% 12% 0%

12% 29% 20% 8% 15%

72% 45% 63% 66% 65%

26 55 67 89 14