Seb Country Analysis Oct 2008 Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

March 25, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : [email protected] The overheating warned against a year ago has come home to roost as seen in soaring inflation. At the same time credit financed spending is slowing rapidly as banks slam the brakes on unsustainable lending growth after feeling the pinch of global credit crunch.

Country Risk Analysis

KZT (thousand billions)

bñÅÉääÉåí=ÖêçïíÜ=ÅçãÉë=íç=~å=ÉåÇK===cçääçïáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=ÖêçïíÜI= ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=ëäçïÉÇ=áå=ä~íÉ=çÑ=OMMT=äÉ~îáåÖ=íçí~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Éñé~åëáçå=~í=äÉëë=íÜ~å= VB=Ñçê=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK=^ÑíÉê=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÖêçïíÜ=Ñêçã=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâë=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=TRB=éK~K=áå= íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ= Domestic bank lending OMMTI=Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ= 5 åçï=ëä~ããÉÇ= íÜÉ=ÄêÉ~âë=çå= ÑìêíÜÉê=ÅêÉÇáí= 4 Éñé~åëáçå=~ë=~= ã~áå=ëçìêÅÉ=çÑ= íÜÉáê=ÑìåÇáåÖI= 3 Corporates ÑçêÉáÖå=ã~êâÉíëI= ÇêáÉÇ=ìé= ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ= 2 ëìÄJéêáãÉ= ÇÉÄ~ÅäÉ=áå=íÜÉ= 1 rpK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí= ~Åíáîáíó=áå=íÜÉ= Households ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå= 0 ëÉÅíçê=Ü~ë= 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ëäçïÉÇ=ëç=ãìÅÜ= íÜ~í=íÜÉ= Claims to Households Claims to Private Nonfinancial Institutions Source: Reuters EcoWin ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ä~íÉ= OMMT=éêçãáëÉÇ=ëéÉÅá~ä=~ëëáëí~åÅÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=Åçãé~åáÉë=íç=Éå~ÄäÉ=íÜÉã=íç=ÑáåáëÜ= çåJÖçáåÖ=ïçêâëK=^äëç=ÅçåëìãÉê=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ëäìÖÖáëÜK==få=OMMUI=ÖêçïíÜ=áë= äáâÉäó=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=ëäçïáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêëK== = qÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ïÉ~âÉåëK==aÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇJóÉ~ê=ÅççäáåÖI=áãéçêí=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉåÇÉÇ= ~äãçëí=PMB=ìé=çå=OMMSK==qÜ~í=ëÉåí=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áåíç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ= PISBLdam=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜó=Éñéçêí=ÖêçïíÜK==qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê==êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=ëç~êáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ= êáëáåÖ=ÅêìÇÉ=ÉñéçêíëI=ïÜáÅÜ==êÉéêÉëÉåí=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=SMB=çÑ=íçí~ä=ãÉêÅÜ~åÇáëÉ=ÉñéçêíëK== qÜ~íI=íçÖÉíÜÉê=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Å~ää=çå=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= íÉåÖÉ=EäçÅ~ä=ÅìêêÉåÅóF==Äó=íÜÉ=ë~äÉ=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïçêíÜ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=AR=ÄáääK=áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉê=~åÇ=lÅíçÄÉêI=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=çÑ=êÉëÉêîÉëK=få=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåí=íÜÉó= ÉåÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=AO=ÄáääK=äçïÉê=~í=ANR=ÄáääK=Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=QJR=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêí=ÅçîÉêK=== qÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ïçêëÉ=ëíáää=Äìí=Ñçê=ä~êÖÉ=caf=EÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí= important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

áåîÉëíãÉåíF=Ñäçïë=íç=~=êÉÅçêÇ=AU=ÄáääK=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=V=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=íç=ïÜáÅÜ= çåÉ=Å~å=~ÇÇ=~í=äÉ~ëí=AOKO=ÄáääK=Ñêçã=~=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçê=Ñçê=íÜÉ=~Åèìáëáíáçå=çÑ=^qcI=~= ã~àçê=h~ò~âÜ=Ä~åâ=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêK==eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=Ä~åâë=ïÉêÉ=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ=Ñêçã= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=íÜÉáê=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=ãìÅÜ=ÑìêíÜÉêI=íÜÉ=ê~íáç=çÑ=íçí~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam= áãéêçîÉÇ=ëäáÖÜíäó=Ñêçã=VSB=íç=VNBK==qÜ~í=áë=ëíáää=ÜáÖÜ=Äó=~åó=ãÉ~ëìêÉ=Äìí=~=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí= çÑ=êÉéêÉëÉåíë=áåíÉêJÅçãé~åó=äç~åë=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=çÑ=h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=çáä=~åÇ= Ö~ë=ëÉÅíçêëK==qÜçëÉ=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=ëí~ó=éêçÑáí~ÄäÉ=~åÇ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ëÉêîáÅÉ=íÜÉáê=äç~åë=ÉîÉå=áå= ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ=ëÅÉå~êáçëK==^äëç=ïçêíÜ=âÉÉéáåÖ=áå=ãáåÇ=áë=íÜ~í=áå=~ÇÇáíáçå=íç=äáèìáÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå= êÉëÉêîÉë=ÜÉäÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÉîÉå=ä~êÖÉê=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=áå= íÜÉ=k~íáçå~ä=cìåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=h~ò~âÜëí~å=EkcohF=ïÜáÅÜ=~ìíçã~íáÅ~ääó= êÉÅÉáîÉë=~=ÅÉêí~áå=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=çÑ=çáä=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉëK=^í=ÉåÇ=OMMTI=íÜÉ=ÑìåÇ=ëíççÇ=~í= AON=ÄáääK=== = `çåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉëK==^í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=~ååì~ä=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=~äãçëí=NUB=áå=ä~íÉ=OMMT=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=ÑççÇ= ëíìÑÑ=Äìí=~äëç=Äó=OMJPMB=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉë=Ñçê=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ= çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=ÇêáîáåÖ=ï~ÖÉ=ÇÉã~åÇë=áå=íÜÉ=ïÜçäÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK==qÜ~í=Ü~ë=äÉÑí=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâ=áå=~=ÇáäÉãã~=Ü~îáåÖ=íç=ÑáÖÜí=êìåJ~ï~ó=éêáÅÉë=ïÜáäÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÖêçïíÜ=ïÉ~âÉåë= Ñçê=êÉ~ëçåë=çÑ=áíë=çïåK==pç=Ñ~ê=áí=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=íç=NNB=Ñêçã=VBI=ëíáää=äÉ~îáåÖ= íÜÉã=ï~óë=ÄÉäçï= íÜÉ=çåJÖçáåÖ=ê~íÉ= 20 çÑ=áåÑä~íáçåI= ÜçïÉîÉêK== = cáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅáÉë= 15 É~ëÉK== h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=ÑáëÅ~ä= éçäáÅó=ëí~åÅÉ=Ü~ë= 10 ÄÉÉå=ÖÉåÉê~ääó= ëíêçåÖ=ïáíÜ=~= ÄìÇÖÉí=ëìêéäìë= êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=TIQB=áå= 5 OMMS=ÄççëíÉÇ=Äó= ÜáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉëK==få= OMMTI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ= 0 ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ~ääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ= ëìêéäìë=íç=Ü~äîÉ= ar 12 months Source: Reuters EcoWin åçíïáíÜëí~åÇáåÖ= Åçåíáåìçìëäó=êáëáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉëI=~ë=áí=áãéäÉãÉåíÉÇ=ëÉîÉê~ä=í~ñ=ÅìíëW=s^q=ï~ë=êÉÇìÅÉÇ= Äó=O=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=éçáåíë=~åÇ=~=éÉêëçå~ä=áåÅçãÉ=í~ñ=çå=ï~ÖÉë=~åÇ=ë~ä~êáÉë=ïÉêÉ= êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~ë=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉéä~ÅÉÇ=~=éêçÖêÉëëáîÉ=í~ñ=ÅçÇÉ=ïáíÜ=~=ëáåÖäÉ= Ñä~í=í~ñ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=NM=éÉêÅÉåí=çå=~ää=áåÅçãÉ=~ÄçîÉ=~=ÅÉêí~áå=íÜêÉëÜçäÇK=lå=íÜÉ=ÉñéÉåÇáíìêÉ= ëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ö~îÉ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=~=ê~áëÉ=çÑ=ëçãÉ=OMJPMBK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí= íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ëìêéäìë=ÑÉää=íç=~å=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=PIPBLdamK==qÜÉ=ã~áå=éêçÄäÉã=ïáíÜ=íÜáë= ÅÜ~åÖÉ=çÑ=éçäáÅáÉë=ï~ë=íÜÉ=Éñíê~=ëíáãìäìë=íç=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK=qÜáë=ã~ó=É~ëáäó=ÄÉ=Ää~ãÉÇ= Ñçê=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=é~êí=çÑ=OMMT=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ëìÄëÉèìÉåí=áåÑä~íáçå~êó= áãé~ÅíK=cáå~åÅá~ääóI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=éçëáíáçå=êÉã~áåë=~ë=ëíêçåÖ=~ë=ÉîÉêK=== dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=áë=ïÉää=ÄÉäçï=NMB=~åÇ=áë=~ää=ÇçãÉëíáÅK=i~ëí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉé~áÇ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íê~åÅÜÉ=çÑ=áíë=ëã~ää=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=áëëìÉK== = mçäáíáÅ~ä=äáÑÉ=å~êêçïë=íç=çåÉ=éÉêëçåK=^í=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=OMMS=íÜÉ=áåÅìãÄÉåíI=jêK= k~ò~êÄ~óÉî=ïçå=~=êÉëçìåÇáåÖ=îáÅíçêó=~ë=åçåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå=é~êíáÉë=ïÉêÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=

Percent

Inflation

2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

é~ëë=íÜÉ=åÉï=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜêÉëÜçäÇ=äáãáí=çÑ=TB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉëK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåí= Ü~ë=åçï=Ñìää=Åçåíêçä=çîÉê=çÑÑáÅá~ä=éçäáíáÅ~ä=äáÑÉ=íÜêçìÖÜ=Üáë=kìê=lí~å=Ec~íÜÉêä~åÇF= é~êíóK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=ÜÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ìåÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉÇ=~ëâ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=`çåëíáíìíáçå=íç=ÄÉ=~ãÉåÇÉÇ=íç= ~ääçï=Üáã=êìå=Ñçê=çÑÑáÅÉ=ãìäíáéäÉ=íáãÉë=ïáíÜçìí=äáãáíK=jêK=k~ò~êî~óÉîI=~ÖÉÇ=STI=áë= åçï=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=êìäÉ=Ñçê=~=äáÑÉíáãÉ=ÅêçïåáåÖ=~=äçåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=Å~êÉÉêK==fí=ëí~êíÉÇ=~ë= Åçããìåáëí=é~êíó=Äçëë=áå=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVUMë=ìåÇÉê=ëçîáÉí=êìäÉ=~åÇ=ÉñíÉåÇÉÇ=áåíç=íÜÉ=NVVMë= ~ë=mêÉëáÇÉåí=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄÉÉå=ÉäÉÅíÉÇ=áå=~=ëíêáåÖ=çÑ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~îÉ=åçí=ÄÉÉå= êÉÖ~êÇÉÇ=~ë=ÑêÉÉ=~åÇ=Ñ~êÉ=Äó=ãçëí=ÑçêÉáÖå=çÄëÉêîÉêëK=eáë=ÑÉï=êÉã~áåáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä= çééçåÉåíë=~êÉ=åçï=~éé~êÉåíäó=ÉáíÜÉê=ëáäÉåÅÉÇ=çê=ÉñáäÉÇ=~ë=jêK=^ääáÉîI=Üáë=ëçåÓáåJä~ï= ~åÇ=~=ãÉÇá~Jã~Öå~íÉ=ïÜç=ìåíáä=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=çïåÉÇ=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÑÉï=êÉã~áåáåÖ=ÑêÉÉ=ê~Çáç= ÅÜ~ååÉäëK= = pÜçêí=íç=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêã=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~ÄáäáíóW==pìÅÜ=~å=~êê~åÖÉãÉåí=ã~ó=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=ÜáÖÜ= ÇÉÖêÉÉ=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~Äáäáíó=~í=äÉ~ëí=áå=íÜÉ=ëÜçêí=íç=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêãK=få=íÜÉ=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=áí= ê~áëÉë=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=çÑ=ëìÅÅÉëëáçå=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=ÄÉ=áåÅ~é~Åáí~íÉÇ=çê=ÇáÉK=eáë= ãçëí=äáâÉäó=ëìÅÅÉëëçê=áë=Üáë=Ç~ìÖÜíÉêI=a~êáÖ~=k~ò~êÄ~óÉîI=ïÜç=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ÇáîçêÅÉÇ=ÜÉê= ÜìëÄ~åÇ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=Üáë=Ñ~ää=áå=ÇáëÖê~ÅÉK== = k~íìê~ä=êÉëçìêÅÉëW==cçääçïáåÖ=ã~àçê=çáä=ÑáåÇë=áå=íÜÉ=NVVMë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉ= h~ëÜ~Ö~å= ÑáÉäÇI=íÜÉ= ïçêäÇÛ= ä~êÖÉëí= çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ= jáÇÇäÉ=b~ëíI= h~ò~âÜëí~å= áë=å~íìê~ääó= ~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ= ÑçêíìåÉë=çÑ= íÜÉ=çáä= ã~êâÉíK== qçí~ä= êÉëÉêîÉë=~êÉ= 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç= ëçãÉ=PU=ÄáääK= Ä~êêÉäë=çÑ= ïÜáÅÜ=~ë= ãìÅÜ=~ë=~= íÜáêÇ=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ÅçããÉêÅá~ääó=Éñéäçáí~ÄäÉK=qÜ~í=ã~âÉë=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=çáäJ= ÅçìåíêáÉë=çìíëáÇÉ=lmb`I=åçí=Ñ~ê=ÄÉÜáåÇ=oìëëá~K=mêçÇìÅíáçå=Ü~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=é~ëëÉÇ=N= ãÄéÇ=EãáääK=_~êêÉäë=éÉê=Ç~óF=~åÇ=áë=êáëáåÖ=ê~éáÇäóK=qÜÉ=~áã=áë=ÄÉÉå=íç=êÉ~ÅÜ=P=ãÄéÇI= Äìí=íÜáë=Öç~ä=ã~ó=åçí=ÄÉÉå=ïáíÜáå=êÉ~ÅÜ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=OMNR=~í=íÜÉ=É~êäáÉëíK=qÜÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí= çÑ=íÜÉ=h~ëÜ~Ö~å=ÑáÉäÇI==áå=é~êíáÅìä~êI==Ü~ë=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=ëÉêáçìë=ÇÉä~óë=ÇìÉ=íç=íÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~åÇ= ÉåîáêçåãÉåí~ä=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=~åÇ=áíë=ã~áå=çéÉê~íçêI==íÜÉ=fí~äá~å=çáä=Åçãé~åó=båáI=Ü~ë= ÉåÅçìåíÉêÉÇ=ëÉêáçìë=Åçëí=çîÉêJêìåë=íÜ~í=ÉîÉåíì~ääó=ïáää=ëéáää=çîÉê=áåíç=äçëëÉë=~äëç=Ñçê= íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=qÜ~í=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=ëÉêáçìë=ÇáëéìíÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=båá=~åÇ=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~ë=åçï=é~ëëÉÇ=~=ä~ï=íÜ~í=ÉëëÉåíá~ääó=ÖáîÉë=áí=íÜÉ=êáÖÜí=íç= êÉíêç~ÅíáîÉäó=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=~åó=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=~ë=áí=ïáëÜÉëK=^ë=ëìÅÜ=~Åíáçåë=~êÉ=åçí= ìåéêÉÅÉÇÉåíÉÇ=~ãçåÖ=çáä=êáÅÜ=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëI=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ëíáää=íÜáåâ= båá=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=éêáî~íÉ=çéÉê~íçêë=ïáää=ÄáíÉ=íÜÉ=ÄìääÉí=~åÇ=~ÅÅÉéí=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=åÉï= íÉêãë=éêçîáÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇçÉë=åçí=ÉñÉêÅáëÉ=áíë=åÉï=êáÖÜíë=~í=ê~åÇçãK=JJ==få= ~ÇÇáíáçå=íç=ä~êÖÉ=çáä=êÉëçìêÅÉëI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=~äëç=Åçãã~åÇë=ä~êÖÉ=Ö~ë=ÇÉéçëáíëI=ã~áåäó=

Oil and gas production

m ill. b arrels/d ay

3 2 2 1 1 0

Output

3

Forecast

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

~ë=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=Ö~ëK==qÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë=~äëç=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇÛë=êáÅÜÉëí=áå=ãÉí~äë=ëìÅÜ=~ë= ÖçäÇI=ÅçééÉê=~åÇ=äÉ~ÇK== = píê~íÉÖáÅ=éçëáíáçåK==_ÉáåÖ=ä~åÇäçÅâÉÇ=~åÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜÉ~îó=ëíìÑÑ=ëìÅÜ=~ë=çáä=~åÇ=ãÉí~äë=~ë= ã~áå=Éñéçêí=éêçÇìÅíëI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=ÇÉéÉåÇë=çå=ÖççÇ=êÉä~íáçåë=íç=áíë=åÉáÖÜÄçêëK== iìÅâáäó=íÜÉó=~êÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=~åÇ=h~ò~âÜëí~å=Ü~ë=ëâáääÑìääó=éä~óÉÇ=çå=íÜÉáê=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉë=íç= áíë=çïå=ÄÉåÉÑáíK=jçëí=íê~åëéçêí=êçìíÉë=ëíáää=Öç=íÜêçìÖÜ=oìëëá~I=Äìí=áí=áë=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=Ö~ëJ éáéÉäáåÉë=íç=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íç=^òÉêÄ~áà~å=Ñêçã=ïÜÉêÉ=áí=Å~å=êÉ~ÅÜ=tÉëíÉêå=ã~êâÉíë= ÇáêÉÅíäó=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=_~âìJ`ÉóÜ~å=éáéÉäáåÉK==fí=Ü~ë=~äëç=âÉéí=~=ÖççÇ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=íç= íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=ÖáîÉå=Çáéäçã~íáÅ=ëìééçêí=íç=rp=ÑçêÉáÖå=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíó=éçäáÅó=áåáíá~íáîÉëK= jçëí=êÉÅÉåíäó=áí=ï~ë=áåîáíÉÇ=íç=ÅÜ~áê=íÜÉ=l`pbI=íÜÉ=áåëíêìãÉåí~ä=bìêçéÉ~å= çêÖ~åáò~íáçå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éêçãçíáçå=çÑ=ÇÉãçÅê~ÅóI=åçí=~=ãáåçê=ÑÉ~í=Ñçê=~=Åçìåíêó=ïáíÜ= ÇÉãçÅê~íáÅ=ÅêÉÇÉåíá~äë=áå=íÜÉ=äçïÉëí=éçëëáÄäÉ=Å~íÉÖçêó=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÑêÉÉÇçãë= ~åÇ=Åçêêìéíáçå=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=rp=cêÉÉÇçã=eçìëÉ=~åÇ=bìêçéÉÛë= qê~åëé~êÉåÅó=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äK==== JGJ= b~êäó=áå=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=~ÅÜáÉîÉÇ=ëìêéêáëáåÖäó=Ñ~ëí=~=ÜáÖÜ=ê~åâáåÖ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä= ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=ëçìåÇ=éçäáÅáÉë=~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=çáäJêáÅÜÉëK===i~ëí=óÉ~ê=áí=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=ëçãÉ= ëÉíJÄ~Åâë=~ë=íïç=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=éìí=áí=çå=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=çìíäççâI=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçêÉ=ìåÅÉêí~áå= çìíäççâ=Ñçê=áíë=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=~ÑíÉê=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ä=ÜáÖÜ=ÖêçïíÜ=çå=íÜÉ=Ä~Åâ=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå= ÑìåÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ãçêÉ=Åçëíäó=~ÑíÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êáëâ=~îÉêëáçå=Ü~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áå= íÜÉ=ï~âÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëìÄJéêáãÉ=ÅêáëáëK=få=çìê=îáÉï=íÜáë=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=ÅçãÉ=~ë=ëìêéêáëÉ=íç=éêìÇÉåíäó= Å~ìíáçìë=áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=ã~ó=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=åçí=ï~êê~åí=~=ëÜ~êé=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=áå=íÜÉáê=îáÉï=çå= h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=ÅêÉÇáíïçêíÜáåÉëëI=~ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ÖäçÄ~ä=Åêáëáë=ÇçÉë=åçí=íìêå=áåíç=~= éêçäçåÖÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÇÉéêÉëëáçåK=^ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ëí~óë=~ÄçîÉ=ATM=Ççää~êëLÄ~êêÉäI= h~ò~âÜëí~å=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=~Çàìëí=íç=äçïÉê=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=ëí~åÇë=~=ÖççÇ=ÅÜ~åÅÉ=çÑ= êÉÖ~áåáåÖ=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=áíë=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=ïáíÜ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Å~éáí~ä=ã~êâÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=åçí=íçç=Çáëí~åí= ÑìíìêÉK=_ó=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íçâÉå=áí=áë=~äëç=Ñ~áê=íç=åçíÉ=íÜ~í=êÉÅÉåí=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=Ü~îÉ=ÉñéçëÉÇ= íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=Ä~ëáÅ=îìäåÉê~ÄáäáíáÉëK== = =

Key ratios

2008

Population (mill.)

15,4

GDP/capita ($)

6874

GDP (change)

5,0%

Inflation

6,5%

Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP

-2,2%

Reserves/imports (months)

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

4

Liquidity

2 0

Absence of event risk

2,5%

Kazakhstan

Government debt/GDP

10%

Russia

fåÇá~= ^äÖÉêá~=

10

6

Macro balance

4

mÉÉêëW oìëëá~=

12

8

Budget balance/GDP

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW=___LåÉÖ= jççÇóDëW=_~~O= pCmW==___LåÉÖ

Resilience

Information

Average EM

Graph: The pentagon shows the creditworthiness of Kazakhstan as "flat" meaning strong on liquidity and macro balance but weaker on event risk and information compared with the average EM country or one of its peers, Russia. Resilience is close to average. =

= 4

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

= Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 GDP (bill.US$) 24,6 30,8 43,2 57,1 1650 2054 2856 3755 GDP/capita (US$) GDP (change) 9,8% 9,3% 9,6% 9,7% Investments/GDP 26% 26% 26% 31% Budget balance/GDP 1,0% 2,0% 1,9% 5,1% 19% 14% 10% 7% Govt debt/GDP CPI inflation (%) 5,8% 6,5% 6,9% 7,6% Money demand (%) 30% 37% 68% 26% Stock prices (%change) 5,2% 5,9% 3,3% 3,3% Interest rates Exch. Rate ($) 153,28 149,58 136,04 132,88 Trade/GDP (%) 94% 92% 96% 98% Oil price (Brent) $25 $29 $38 $54 Billions US $ 11,6 14,9 22,6 30,5 Export of goods 11,6 13,3 18,8 25,5 Imports of goods Other: -1,1 -1,7 -2,8 -5,4 -1,1 -0,1 1,0 -0,3 Current account -4,6% -0,4% 2,4% -0,6% (% of GDP) FDI 2,6 2,1 4,2 2,0 Loan repayments -2,7 -4,6 -7,8 -11,6 Net other capital flows 1,8 4,2 6,9 7,6 0,6 1,6 4,3 -2,4 Balance of payments Reserves 2,6 4,2 8,5 6,1 Total debt 18,8 22,9 32,7 43,4 1,8 2,8 3,9 8,0 o/w short term debt Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates. Rating history Fitch (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

2007

2008

2009

77,2 5044 10,6% 33% 7,4% 6% 8,5%

95,1 6170 8,1% 34% 3,3% 7% 10,8%

106,8 6874 5,0% 35% 2,5% 10% 6,5%

117,6 7517 5,5% 35% 4,2% 10% 5,5%

78%

25%

3,3% 126,09 96% $65

7,0% 122,55 94% $73

7,0% 125,61 99% $87

7,0% 128,75 92% $77

41,6 32,8 -9,3 -0,6 -0,8% 6,2 -11,6 17,7 11,7 17,8 74,0 12,4

48,6 41,3 -10,7 -3,5 -3,6% 8,2 -13,6 6,7 -2,2 15,5 87,4 19,8

56,5 48,8 -10,1 -2,4 -2,2% 4,0 -13,7 13,7 1,6 17,2 84,4 20,2

57,6 50,7 -9,4 -2,4 -2,1% 4,2 -7,6 7,6 1,7 18,9 95,8 20,4

BBBB BB+ BB+ BBBBBB BBBB BB+ BB+ BBBBBB Parliamentary democracy in form, but autocracy in practice 2012

EFF 1999-2002 (allocated amount not utilized)

Spot Rates, KZT/US$

Deposit Rates, 1 Month

150

20,0 Percent

130 USD/KZT

2006

110 90

15,0 10,0 5,0

70 50 1996

2000

0,0 2000

2004

2002

2004

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Real Effective Exchange Rate

International reserves

135

25,0 USD (billions)

Index

125 115 105 95 85 1995 SEB (eoy)

2006

2000

15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 1995

2005 14

20,0

12

2000

2005 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Source: Reuters EcoWin

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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

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