Seb Country Analysis Feb 2009 Poland

Poland SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

February 11, 2009

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : [email protected] The Polish economy is slowing abruptly and risk following its regional peers into recession. Despite modest economic imbalances, the exchange rate has come under strong downward pressure, perhaps reflecting concern about Poland’s sizeable external refinancing need this year.

Country Risk Analysis=

Index

Percent

pÜ~êé=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~ÅíáîáíóK=få=íÜÉ=ï~âÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëI=íÜÉ= mçäáëÜ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=~=ÅçåëáÇÉê~ÄäÉ=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=~Åíáîáíó=~ÑíÉê=ëÉîÉê~ä= óÉ~êë=çÑ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=ìåÇÉêéáååÉÇ=Äó=éêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=~åÇ=Äìçó~åí= áåîÉëíãÉåíëK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖäóI=dam= Gross Domestic Product ÖêçïíÜ=ëäçïÉÇ=íç=QKU=B=áå=OMMU=ÇìÉ= 12 5 11 0 íç=äçïÉê=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë= 10 -5 Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=SKT=B=áå=OMMTK=dçáåÖ= 9 -10 8 -15 áåíç=OMMVI=~=ëÜ~êé=Ñ~ää=áå=áåÇìëíêá~ä= 7 -20 éêçÇìÅíáçå=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íïç= 6 -25 5 -30 ãçåíÜë=çÑ=OMMU=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=ïçêëÉåáåÖ= 4 -35 ÅçåëìãÉê=~åÇ=ÄìëáåÉëë=ëÉåíáãÉåíë= 3 -40 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 áåÇáÅ~íÉ=ëÜ~êéäó=ëäçïÉê=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= Gross Domestic Product, YoY (lhs) [c.o.p 4 quarters] ÖêçïíÜK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=ÑçêÉÅ~ëí=Ñçê=dam= Business Surveys, Manufacturing Sector Consumer Surveys ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMV=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=êÉîáëÉÇ= Ççïåï~êÇë=~åÇ=ëçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÉîÉå=ÉñéÉÅí=~=êÉÅÉëëáçåK=fåÑä~íáçå=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=É~ëÉ= íç=PKP=B=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=~ÑíÉê=éÉ~âáåÖ=~í=QKR=B=áå=OMMU=~ääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=íç=Åìí= áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=Äó=NTR=Ä~ëáë=éçáåíë=çîÉê=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ãçåíÜë=íç=QKR=BK=== = bñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=îçä~íáäáíóK=qÜÉ=mçäáëÜ=òäçíó=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=ìåÇÉê=ëíêçåÖ=Ççïåï~êÇ= éêÉëëìêÉ=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáåÖ=~êçìåÇ=QR=B=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=Éìêç=~åÇ=TM=B=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rp=Ççää~ê= ëáåÅÉ=áíë=éÉ~â=áå=gìäó=OMMUK==qÜáë=áë=ëçãÉïÜ~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=áíë=êÉÖáçå~ä=éÉÉêë=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ= ä~êÖÉ=Å~éáí~ä=çìíÑäçïë=Ñêçã=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=éçëëáÄäó=ÅçåÅÉêå=~Äçìí=mçä~åÇÛë= êÉÑáå~åÅáåÖ=åÉÉÇ=áå=ÅìêêÉåí=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ÇìÉ=íç=áíë=ëáòÉ=EãçêÉ=íÜ~å= rpa=UMÄå=í~âÉå=áåíç=~ÅÅçìåí=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíI=äç~å=êÉé~óãÉåíë=~åÇ=ëÜçêíJ íÉêã=ÇÉÄí=áå=OMMVFK=qÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=òäçíó=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=éìí=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ã~åó= ÜçìëÉÜçäÇë=~åÇ=Åçêéçê~íÉë=íÜ~í=Ü~îÉ=í~âÉå=äç~åë=áå=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=ERT=B=çÑ= ÜçìëÉÜçäÇëÛ=ãçêíÖ~ÖÉ=äç~åëFK=_ÉëáÇÉëI=ëÉîÉê~ä=mçäáëÜ=Åçãé~åáÉë=Ñ~ÅÉ=ëìÄëí~åíá~ä= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ=äçëëÉë=~ÑíÉê=ëÉÅìêáåÖ=íÜÉãëÉäîÉë=~Ö~áåëí=òäçíó=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=~=óÉ~ê=~ÖçK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=éçäáëÜ=cáå~åÅá~ä=pìéÉêîáëáçå=^ìíÜçêáíó=íÜÉëÉ=äççëÉë=~êÉ=Éëíáã~íÉÇ= íç=rpa=NKTÄåK=få=lÅíçÄÉêI=íÜÉ=k~íáçå~ä=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ÅçåÅäìÇÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ëï~é=~ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=`Éåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=pïáëë=å~íáçå~ä=_~åâ=íç= éêçîáÇÉ=äáèìáÇáíó=çå=íÜÉ=mçäáëÜ=áåíÉê=Ä~åâ=ã~êâÉíK= = Source: Reuters EcoWin

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February, 2009

táÇÉåáåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉëK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÅçåíáåìÉë=íç=ïáÇÉå=~åÇ= áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=êÉ~ÅÜ=S=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMV=~ë=Éñéçêíë=ïÉ~âÉå=Ñ~ëíÉê=íÜ~å=áãéçêíëK=qÜÉ= ëíêìÅíìêÉ=çÑ=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïë=Ü~ë=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=~ë=caf=áåÑäçïë=ëäçïÉÇK=qÜÉó=åçï=ÅçîÉê= çåäó=~êçìåÇ=SM=B=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=NMM=B=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=OMMU= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=çíÜÉê=Ñáå~åÅáåÖK=pç=Ñ~ê=íÜ~í=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ãÉí=ã~áåäó=Äó=íÜÉ= ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Çê~ïáåÖ=Ççïå=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~îÉ=ÇêçééÉÇ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= íç=rpa=RVÄå=Ñêçã=áíë=éÉ~â=çÑ=rpa=URÄå=áå=gìäó=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK=qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçëáíáçå=áë=~äëç= ÅçãáåÖ=ìåÇÉê=éêÉëëìêÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ëäçïÇçïå=ïáíÜ=~=éçëëáÄäÉ=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=çÑ= íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ñêçã=OKRB=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMU=íç=PKP=B=çÑ=dam=íÜáë=óÉ~êK== = bìêç=~Ççéíáçå=éä~åK=få=ä~ëí=lÅíçÄÉêI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ÇçéíÉÇ=~=“êç~Ç=ã~éÒ=íç=bjr= Éåíêó=~ëëìãáåÖ=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáé=áå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ãÉÅÜ~åáëã=bojJff=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ= çÑ=OMMV=~åÇ=Éìêç=~Ççéíáçå=áå=OMNOK=eçïÉîÉêI=áå=g~åì~êó=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅÉ=ãáåáëíÉê= áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ãáÖÜí=ÇÉä~ó=bojJff=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáéI=áKÉK= íÜÉ=éÉÖÖáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=òäçíó=íç=íÜÉ=Éìêç=ïáíÜ=~=ÑäìÅíì~íáçå=ã~êÖáå=çÑ=HLJ=NR=BI=íç=íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMVK=qÜÉ=bìêç=~Ççéíáçå=áë=~äëç=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉÇ=Äó=âÉÉéáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí= ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÄÉäçï=P=B=çÑ=dam=~ë=ëíáéìä~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=j~~ëíêáÅÜí=ÅêáíÉêá~K=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=êÉÑçêãë=íç=í~ÅâäÉ=ëíêìÅíìê~ä=ïÉ~âåÉëëÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=éìÄäáÅ= Ñáå~åÅÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=êÉÑçêãë=çÑ=c~êãÉêÛë=pçÅá~ä=pÉÅìêáíó=póëíÉã=EhorpFI=éä~åë=íç= áãéêçîÉ=íÜÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉåÉëë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜÅ~êÉ=ëÉÅíçê=~åÇ=íÜÉ=~Ççéíáçå=çÑ=~å=~ÅíáîÉ= ~ÖÉáåÖ=ëíê~íÉÖó=íç=ÅçéÉ=ïáíÜ=ÇÉãçÖê~éÜáÅ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~ÖÉáåÖK=eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉ=ëÅçéÉ=~åÇ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=êÉÑçêãë=~êÉ=ëíáää=ìåÅÉêí~áåI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó=áå=îáÉï= íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=áå=OMNMK= JGJ= få=íÜÉ=ï~âÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëI=íÜÉ=éçäáëÜ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=åçï=ëäçïáåÖ= ~Äêìéíäó=~ÑíÉê=~=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜK=c~ääáåÖ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=~åÇ= éÉëëáãáëíáÅ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=éçáåí=íç=ëÜ~êéäó=äçïÉê=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMV=~åÇ= ëçãÉ=ÉîÉå=ÉñéÉÅí=~=êÉÅÉëëáçåK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ïáÇÉå=íç=S=B= çÑ=dam=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=äçïÉê=caf=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇ=çÑ= ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=Ñáå~åÅáåÖK=bîÉå=áÑ=íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=mçä~åÇ=áë=ëíáää=ÄÉííÉê=íÜ~å=ëçãÉ=çÑ= áíë=êÉÖáçå~ä=éÉÉêëI=íÜáë=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖ=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íáÖÜí=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÅçåÇáíáçåë=~åÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=éÉêÅÉáîÉÇ=ã~êâÉí=êáëâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉÖáçåK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ= mçäáëÜ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=Ü~îÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=ÇÉåáÉÇ=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=~ëëáëí~åÅÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ= fjcK=få=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêãI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=êç~Ç=ã~é=íç=Éìêç=~Ççéíáçå= ã~ó=ÑìåÅíáçå=~ë=~å=~åÅÜçê=Ñçê=ëçìåÇ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=ÉîÉå=áÑ=íÜÉ=í~êÖÉí=Ç~íÉ= Ñçê=Éìêç=~Ççéíáçå=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=éçëíéçåÉÇK== = hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF

PTUVS

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

VQOT

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

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`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW===__JLéçë cáíÅÜW===^JI=ëí~ÄäÉ= jççÇóDëW=_~P= jççÇóDëW=^OI=ëí~ÄäÉ pCmW==__JLéçë= pCmW==^JI=ëí~ÄäÉ

Resilience 13 11 9 7

Macro balance

5 3

Liquidity

1 -1

Absence of event risk

JSKQB

oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

OMMV

Q

Poland

JPKOB

Information

Average EM

Hungary

QVB mÉÉêëW `òÉÅÜ=oÉéK= eìåÖ~êó= bëíçåá~=

dê~éÜW=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=mçä~åÇDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=íç= Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse ÄÉ=ëíêçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çÑ=~ää=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí= than average in all respects including to its ÅçìåíêáÉë=ïÜÉå=áí=ÅçãÉë=íç=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=Ñ~Åíçêë=ëìÅÜ= traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker ~ë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉI==~ÄëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ=~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçåK liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.

=

= 2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February, 2009

Key data: 2004 2005 2006 2007 GDP (bill.US$) 255 304 342 428 GDP/capita (US$) 6684 7970 8994 11259 GDP, real (change) 5.3% 3.6% 6.2% 6.7% Investments/GDP 19% 20% 21% 23% Budget deficit/GDP -5.7% -4.3% -3.8% -2.0% Govt debt/GDP 46% 47% 48% 45% CPI inflation (%) 3.6% 2.1% 1.1% 2.4% Money demand (%) 4% 12% 12% 13% Stock prices (%change) 43% 25% 40% 37% Interest rates 5.8 5.3 4.1 4.5 Exch. Rate ($) 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.8 Trade/GDP (%) 66% 77% 95% 121% Oil price (Brent)$ 38 54 65 73 Billions US $ Export of goods 81.8 96.5 117.4 145.3 Imports of goods 87.5 99.2 124.5 162.4 Other: 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 Current account -10.0 -3.7 -9.4 -20.1 % of GDP -3.9% -1.2% -2.7% -4.7% Net FDI 11.5 7.0 10.7 18.0 Loan repayments 31.3 30.8 32.2 41.4 Net other capital flows -32.6 -34.1 -32.3 -39.0 Balance of payments 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.3 Reserves 35.3 40.9 46.4 62.9 Total debt 96.0 98.3 115.7 159.2 o/w short term debt 17.8 17.4 20.0 35.6 Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

2008 529 13946 4.8% 24% -2.5% 43% 4.3% 12% -36% 5.7 2.4 146% 98

2009 357 9427 0.4% 23% -3.2% 49% 2.8% 0%

2010 424 11208 3.0% 23% -3.1% 48% 2.4% -4%

2011 504 13348 5.3% 24% -3.0% 46% 2.5% 1%

3.0 3.6 113% 45

2.9 3.2 138% 59

4.4 2.9 157% 67

175.5 197.9 1.2 -27.9 -5.3% 12.7 47.3 -31.9 0.3 59.3 190.1 47.4

131.9 157.7 1.2 -30.6 -6.4% 13.6 50.0 -32.8 0.1 64.0 203.5 50.7

163.2 187.8 1.0 -25.4 -5.5% 14.5 52.8 -41.7 0.1 69.0 215.2 54.5

188.5 213.2 1.0 -24.2 -4.2% 15.0 55.4 -46.3 0.1 73.0 224.8 58.5

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

A-

A-

A2

A2

A2

A2

A3

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

A-

A-

Coalition of centre-right Civic Platform and centrist Polish Peasant Party Presidential elections Oct. 2010. 1991 Stand-By agreements in -93 and -94. Extended Fund Facility (EFF) -91 Credit grow th

S to c k m a rk et (W IG 2 0 )

45

4 00 0

40 T otal

35

3 50 0

Hou seh olds

3 00 0

25 Index

Percent (YoY)

30 20 15 10

2 50 0 2 00 0

5 0

1 50 0

-5

C orp orates

1 00 0

-10 02

03

04

05

06

07

E x ch a ng e rate

02

08

03

04

05

06

07

08 S ou rc e: R e u ters E co W in

S o urce: R eu ters E coW in

Interest rates

5 .0

7.5 7.0

4 .5 EU R /P LN

6.5 Percent

4 .0 3 .5

6.0 5.5 5.0

3 .0

4.5

U S D /P LN

2 .5

4.0 03

04

05

06

07

08

09

2 .0 02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

S o u rce : R e ute rs E co W in

= = 3

Policy Rates, Rediscount Rate Interbank Rates, W IBOR, 3 M onth, Fixing S ource: Reu ters E coW in

=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February, 2009

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