Seb Country Analysis Feb 2009 Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

February 16, 2009

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail: [email protected] The sharp fall in oil prices, the ongoing global financial crisis and the exchange rate devaluation put pressure on Kazakhstan’s external finances and its banking system. The authorities’ response to the deteriorated situation risk having an adverse impact on the strong public finances.

Country Risk Analysis `Ü~ääÉåÖáåÖ=íáãÉë=~ÜÉ~ÇK=qÜÉ=h~ò~âÜëí~å=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=åçï=ëäçïáåÖ=~ÑíÉê=~=äçåÖ= éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=ê~éáÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=ÑìÉääÉÇ=Äó=êÉÅçêÇ=ÜáÖÜ=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ= ÉñíÉåëáîÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Äó=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=qÜÉ=ÇêóáåÖ=ìé=çÑ=ÉñíÉêå~ä= Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=ëáåÅÉ=ãáÇJOMMT=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=“ÅêÉÇáí=ÅêìåÅÜÒ=íêáÖÖÉêáåÖ=~=ëäçïÇçïå=áå= åçåJçáä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~ÅíáîáíóI=~=ëÜ~êé=Ççïåï~êÇ=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=çÑ=êÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉ=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ= ëÉîÉêÉ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=== Real GDP dçáåÖ=áåíç=OMMVI=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=Ñ~ää=áå= ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉë=ëáåÅÉ=ä~ëí=ëìããÉêI=íÜÉ= 15.0% ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= Åêáëáë=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=íÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=Ñ~ää=çÑ=íÜÉ= 10.0% êçìÄäÉ=Ü~ë=áåíÉåëáÑáÉÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ= 5.0% ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=áíë=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=^ë=~= 0.0% êÉëìäíI=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç= 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ëäçï=íç=~êçìåÇ=O=B=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=Ñêçã= Éëíáã~íÉÇ=PKU=B=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=áåÑä~íáçå=áë= äáâÉäó=íç=É~ëÉ=íç=~êçìåÇ=T=B=çå=~îÉê~ÖÉ=áå=OMMVK=tÉ~âÉê=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉë=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ= çáä=éêáÅÉ=Çêçé=Eçáä=~ÅÅçìåíë=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=RM=B=çÑ=íçí~ä=ÉñéçêíëFI=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=éìí= éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçå=íìêåáåÖ=~=ëìÄëí~åíá~ä=ëìêéäìë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí= Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=TKN=B=çÑ=dam=áåíç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=~êçìåÇ=U=B=íÜáë=óÉ~êK==qÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâÛë= áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=~ãçìåíÉÇ=íç=rpa=NVKQÄå=E~Äçìí=Q=ãçåíÜÛë=çÑ=áãéçêí=ÅçîÉê~ÖÉF= ~åÇ=íÜÉ=k~íáçå~ä=láä=cìåÇ=ÅçãéêáëÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=çÑ=rpa=OTKPÄå=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=OMMUK== = bñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÇÉî~äì~íáçåK=få=íÜÉ=~ìíìãå=çÑ=OMMTI=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=éÉÖÖÉÇ=íÜÉ= h~ò~âÜëí~å=íÉåÖÉ=EhwqF=~í=NOM=íç=íÜÉ=rp=Ççää~ê=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=Å~ãÉ=ìåÇÉê= ëíêçåÖ=Ççïåï~êÇ=éêÉëëìêÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=ìåÇÉê=êÉåÉïÉÇ= éêÉëëìêÉ=íÜáë=~ìíìãå=ÇìÉ=íç=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ= oìëëá~å=êçìÄäÉI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ÉÑÑçêíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=íÉåÖÉ=Äó=íÜÉ=ë~äÉë=çÑ= rpa=SÄå=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉëK=^í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇI=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=ÇÉî~äìÉÇ=íÜÉ=hwq=Äó=~êçìåÇ= NU=B=çå=cÉÄêì~êó=Q=~åÇ=íÜÉå=~ääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ=íÉåÖÉ=íç=ÑäìÅíì~íÉ=ïáíÜáå=~=HLJ=P=B=Ä~åÇ= ~êçìåÇ=NRM=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpaK=eçïÉîÉêI=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ= ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=áíë=ã~áå=íê~ÇáåÖ=é~êíåÉêëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=oìëëá~I=íÜáë=ã~ó=åçí=ÄÉ=ÉåçìÖÜ= íç=ëíÉã=ÑìêíÜÉê=Ççïåï~êÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK= =

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

^åíáJÅêáëáë=éêçÖê~ã=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=ÇáëíêÉëëÉÇ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=få=kçîÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí= óÉ~êI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=~=êÉëÅìÉ=éä~å=íç=êÉÅ~éáí~äáëÉ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=~åÇ= íç=êÉîáîÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=çîÉê=OMMVJOMNMK=qÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=~=Ä~åâáåÖ=Åêáëáë=Ü~ë= åÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=å~íáçå~äáëÉ=íïç=çÑ=íÜÉ= ä~êÖÉëí=Ä~åâë=E_q^=~åÇ=^ääá~åÅÉF=~ë=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÇÉî~äì~íáçå=áãé~áêÉÇ=íÜÉ= Ä~åâÛë=~ëëÉí=èì~äáíó=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉáê=ÉñíÉåëáîÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅó=äÉåÇáåÖ=íç=ìåÜÉÇÖÉÇ= Åçêéçê~íÉë=~åÇ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇë=EQQ=B=çÑ=íçí~ä=äç~åëFK=qÜÉ=Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=íç=êÉÑáå~åÅÉ=~êçìåÇ= rpa=NMÄå=çÑ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖåÛë=ÑáëÅ~ä=~åÇ=ÉñíÉêå~ä= éçëáíáçå=êÉã~áåë=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ëíêçåÖ=ïáíÜ=éìÄäáÅ=ÇÉÄí=~í=~=äçï=Q=B=çÑ=dam=~åÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå= ~ëëÉíë=çÑ=~êçìåÇ=rpa=QSÄåK= = mçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~ÄáäáíóK=oÉÅÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=Ü~îÉ=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåÉÇ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáí~êá~å= êìäÉ=çÑ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=k~ò~êÄ~óÉî=J=áå=éçïÉê=ëáåÅÉ=NVVNK=`çåëíáíìíáçå~ä=~ãÉåÇãÉåíë= ~ääçï=k~ò~êÄ~óÉî=~å=ìåäáãáíÉÇ=åìãÄÉê=çÑ=íÉêãë=áå=çÑÑáÅÉK=qÜÉ=ÅçãéÉíáåÖ=Ñ~Åíáçå=äÉÇ= Äó=o~âÜ~í=^äáóÉî=EíÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåíDë=ÑçêãÉê=ëçåJáåJä~ïF=áë=ïÉ~âÉåÉÇ=~ÑíÉê=ÜÉ=ï~ë= ëÉåíÉåÅÉÇ=íç=OM=óÉ~êë=çÑ=éêáëçå=çå=~ääÉÖ~íáçåë=çÑ=éä~ååáåÖ=~=Åçìé=áå=OMMTK=qÜÉ= éêÉëáÇÉåíÛë=Ñáêã=Öêáé=çå=éçïÉê=ÅçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=~=êÉëçäìíÉ=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=íÜÉ=çåÖçáåÖ=Åêáëáë= Äìí=~äëç=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜíë=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=êáëâ=çÑ=ëìÅÅÉëëáçåK== = j~àçê=çáä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ÖêçïíÜ=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉK=qÜÉ=éÉíêçäÉìã= áåÇìëíêó=~ÅÅçìåíë=Ñçê=êçìÖÜäó=PM=éÉêÅÉåí=çÑ=dam=~åÇ=çîÉê=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=áíë=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉëK= láä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Ü~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=Ñêçã=NKPQ=ãáääáçå=Ä~êêÉäë=éÉê=Ç~ó=EãÄéÇF=áå=OMMR=íç=NKQP= ãÄéÇ=áå=OMMUK=bñáëíáåÖ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=qÉåÖáò=ÑáÉäÇ=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÇçìÄäÉ=~åÇ= íÜÉ=h~ëÜ~Ö~å=ÑáÉäÇ=EíÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=çáä=ÑáÉäÇ=çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=jáÇÇäÉ=b~ëíF=ïáää=~ÇÇ=~å= ~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=N=ãÄéÇ=~ÑíÉê=OMNN=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=bf^=EíÜÉ=rp=båÉêÖó=fåÑçêã~íáçå= ^Çãáåáëíê~íáçåFK= JGJ= qÜÉ=h~ò~âÜ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëÉîÉêÉäó=Üáí=Äó=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= Åêáëáë=ÉåÇáåÖ=~=äçåÖ=éÉêáçÇ=~=ëíêçåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜ=ÅçããçÇáíó= éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=ÜÉ~îó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Äó=Ä~åâëK=qÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=Ñ~ää=áå=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉë= ëáåÅÉ=ä~ëí=ëìããÉê=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êçìÄäÉ=Ü~îÉ=áåíÉåëáÑáÉÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ= çå=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=áíë=ÇáëíêÉëëÉÇ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=_ÉëáÇÉëI=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ= ÇÉî~äì~íáçå=~áãÉÇ=~í=êÉëíçêáåÖ=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëë=éìíë=ÑìêíÜÉê=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ= ëÉÅíçê=ÇìÉ=íç=áíë=ä~êÖÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅìêêÉåÅó=äÉåÇáåÖ=íç=ìåÜÉÇÖÉÇ=ÄçêêçïÉêë=~ë=ïÉää=~ë= ëáòÉ~ÄäÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=êÉé~óãÉåíë=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÇìÉ=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=i~ëí=~ìíìãåI=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖå= ê~íáåÖ=Å~ãÉ=ìåÇÉê=éêÉëëìêÉ=~åÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉë=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇK==^=åÉï=Äçìí=çÑ= Å~éáí~ä=ÑäáÖÜí=ÅçìäÇ=éìí=ÑìêíÜÉê=Ççïåï~êÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=êáëâáåÖ=~= Åçää~éëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêK=eçïÉîÉêI=ëíêçåÖ=éìÄäáÅ=Ñáå~åÅÉë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåíÛë= Ñáêã=Öêáé=çÑ=éçïÉê=ëÜçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=~=êÉëçäìíÉ=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=íÜÉ=çåÖçáåÖ=ÅêáëáëK== Key ratios

2009

Population (mill.)

15.6

GDP/capita ($)

7959

GDP (change)

2.5%

Inflation

Resilience 12 10 8 6

Macro balance

4

Liquidity

2 0

7.5%

Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP

-8.0%

Reserves/imports (months) Budget balance/GDP

Absence of event risk

12.1

Kazakhstan

-4.0%

Government debt/GDP bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW=___LåÉÖ= jççÇóDëW=_~~O= pCmW==___JLåÉÖ

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

Information

Average EM

Russia

6% mÉÉêëW oìëëá~=

Graph: The pentagon shows the creditworthiness of Kazakhstan as close to average on liquidity, resilience and macro balance but weaker on event risk and information compared with the average EM country or one of its peers, Russia.

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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

Key data: 2004 2005 2006 2007 43.2 57.1 81.0 103.4 GDP (bill.US$) 2856 3755 5290 6707 GDP/capita (US$) 9.4% 9.8% 10.6% 9.5% GDP (change) 29% 38% 50% 58% Investments/GDP 1.9% 5.1% 7.4% 5.0% Budget balance/GDP 10% 7% 6% 5% Govt debt/GDP 6.8% 7.5% 8.6% 10.8% CPI inflation (%) Money demand (%) 34% 68% 26% 78% Stock prices (%change) 5.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Interest rates 136.04 132.88 126.09 122.55 Exch. Rate ($) 96% 98% 92% 93% Trade/GDP (%) $38 $54 $65 $73 Oil price (Brent) Billions US $ 22.7 30.5 41.5 51.9 Export of goods 18.9 25.5 32.9 44.8 Imports of goods Other: -3.4 -6.1 -10.6 -14.4 Current account 0.3 -1.1 -2.0 -7.3 0.8% -1.8% -2.5% -7.1% (% of GDP) 2.1 4.2 2.0 6.3 FDI -2.7 -4.6 -7.8 -11.6 Loan repayments 4.5 -0.9 19.5 10.7 Net other capital flows Balance of payments 4.2 -2.4 11.7 -2.0 8.5 6.1 17.7 15.8 Reserves 32.7 43.4 74.0 96.7 Total debt 2.8 3.9 8.1 12.4 o/w short term debt Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.

2008

2009

2010

2011

140.8 9063 3.8% 68% -3.0% 4% 17.1%

124.5 7959 2.5% 79% -4.0% 6% 7.5%

139.8 8874 4.0% 88% -3.0% 8% 8.0%

158.6 9993 7.0% 94% -3.5% 8% 6.0%

26% 7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

120.40

150.00

150.00

150.00

85%

80%

82%

84%

$98

$45

$60

$74

70.3 49.5 -9.9 10.9 7.8% 10.2 -11.6 -6.1 3.4 19.2 88.0 11.7

48.6 51.4 -16.6 -19.4 -8.0% 7.8 -13.6 26.2 1.0 20.2 103.5 19.8

60.3 54.9 -17.2 -11.8 -8.4% 5.0 -16.0 23.8 1.1 21.2 113.0 20.2

74.4 59.3 -17.8 -2.7 -1.7% 5.4 -14.0 12.6 1.2 22.5 115.1 20.4

Rating history Fitch (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

BBBBBB BBB BBB BBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBParliamentary democracy in form, but autocracy in practice 2012

EFF 1999-2002 (allocated amount not utilized) In fla tio n

D o m e s tic b a n k le n d in g 2 2 .5

6

1 7 .5 4 3

Percent

KZT (thousand billions)

2 0 .0 5

C o r p o r a te s

1 5 .0 1 2 .5 1 0 .0

2

7 .5 1

5 .0

H o u s e h o ld s 0

2 .5 2002

2003

2004

2005

C la im s to H o use ho ld s

2006

2007

2002

2008

C la i m s to P riva te No nfina nc ia l Ins ti tutio ns

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

a r 1 2 m o nths S o u rce : R e u te rs E c o W in

S o u r ce : R e u te rs E c o W i n

E x te rn a l D e b t

H o u s in g A lm a ty , K Z T /m 2 110

400000

100

USD (billions)

KZT/squaremetre

90

300000

200000

80 70 60 50 40 30

100000

20 10

0 Dec 2005

0

Apr Aug 2006

Jan

M ay Sep 2007

Jan

M ay Sep 2 0 0S o 8 u rc e : R e u te rs E co W i n

= = = 3

02

03

T o ta l, s h o rt-te rm

04

05

06

07

08

T o ta l, lo n g -te rm S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

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