Seb Country Analysis 2008 Taiwan

Taiwan, Republic of China SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

December 8, 2007

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : [email protected]

Growth has unexpectedly shot up to more than 5% in 2007 but is likely to fall back as global demand slows next year. An up-coming referendum over UN membership could raise tensions with Beijing.

Country Risk Analysis

2007; 5,1%

cçääçïáåÖ=ëíêçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMTI=êáëâ=çÑ=~=OMMU=ëäçïÇçïå=áë= êáëáåÖK==kçí=çåäó=ï~ë=SIVB=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=nP=~=ïÉäÅçãÉ=ëìêéêáëÉI=Äìí=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ= ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ï~ë=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=íÜáë=êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=ëçäáÇ=ÅçåíêáÄìíáçåë=Ñêçã=éêáî~íÉ= Åçåëìãéíáçå=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåíëK=q~áï~åÛë=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉ= Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ìåÉîÉå=~åÇ=äáâÉäó=ÄÉäçï=éçíÉåíá~äK==qÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=ïÉ~íÜÉêÉÇ=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=Åêáëáë= èìáíÉ=ïÉääI=Äìí=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ççãáå~åÅÉ=çÑ=ÜáÖÜJíÉÅÜåçäçÖó=éêçÇìÅíë=áå=q~áï~åÛë= Éñéçêí=ëÉÅíçê=áí=ï~ë=Å~ìÖÜí=áå=íÜÉ=rp=êÉÅÉëëáçå=çÑ=OMMNI=ïÜáÅÜ=ÑçääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åçää~éëÉ= çÑ=íÜÉ=k~ëÇ~è=~åÇ=íÜÉ=fq=ÄìÄÄäÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=NVVMëK==^=ê~éáÇ=êÉÅçîÉêó=ï~ë=~ÅÅçãé~åáÉÇ=Äó= ~=ÅêÉÇáí=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=ÅçåëìãÉê=Äççã=ÄççëíÉÇ=Äó=êÉÅâäÉëë=ÅêÉÇáí=Å~êÇ=äÉåÇáåÖ=Äó=íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë=çîÉêJÄ~åâÉÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçêK=tÜÉå=íÜ~í=ÉåÇÉÇ=áå=OMMRI=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó= íìêåÉÇ=áåíç=~=åÉï=ëäçïÇçïåI=~äÄÉáí=äÉëë= GDP(%chng) ëÉîÉêÉ=íÜ~å=áå=OMMNI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íïç= 8% óÉ~êë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ëìêîáîÉÇ=çå=ÄççãáåÖ= 6% ïçêäÇ=íê~ÇÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ëéÉÅí~Åìä~ê=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ= 4% j~áåä~åÇ=`Üáå~I=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~= 2% ã~àçê=íê~ÇáåÖ=é~êíåÉêI=ÉÅäáéëáåÖ=q~áï~åÛë= 0% Éñéçêí=ëÜ~êÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=br=ÅçãÄáåÉÇK== -2% ^ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=Å~êÇ=ÇÉÄ~ÅäÉI=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= -4% ÇÉã~åÇ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=ïÉ~â=ìé=íç=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=

2000 2002 2004 2006 ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ëéìêíK=eçéÉë=~êÉ=Ñçê=áãéêçîÉÇ= Source: OEF ëÉåíáãÉåíë=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=äÉëí=ÖêçïíÜ=Ñ~ääë= ëÜ~êéäó=áå=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=áå=Éñéçêí=ã~êâÉíëK=qÜ~í=áëI=ÜçïÉîÉêI= Üçëí~ÖÉ=íç=~å=É~ëáåÖ=çÑ=éêÉëÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíáÉë=ÅêÉ~íÉÇ=Äó=~å=ìéJÅçãáåÖ= êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=äÉÖáëä~íáîÉ=~åÇ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=É~êäó=OMMUK== = låÖçáåÖ=ÅçåëçäáÇ~íáçå=êÉëíêáÅíë=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅóI=Äìí=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅó=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=É~ëÉÇK== qç=ÄêáåÖ=Ççïå=áíë=ÇÉÄí=ëí~åÇáåÖ=~í=ëçãÉ=QMJQRBLdamI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=áë= ÇÉíÉêãáåÉÇ=íç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=Äó=OMNNK=få=OMMSI=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=çîÉêJéÉêÑçêãÉÇ= êÉä~íáîÉ=íç=í~êÖÉíë=~åÇ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=áãéêçîÉãÉåí=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ÉåëìêÉ=íÜÉ= ÇÉÑáÅáí=êÉã~áåë=ÄÉäçï=NIRB=çÑ=damK=qÜ~íI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=äÉ~îÉë=çåäó=~=ëã~ää=ã~êÖáå=íç= éìãé=éêáãÉ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóI=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇ=~êáëÉ=áå=ÅçãáåÖ=óÉ~êëK=jçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅóI= Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ìååÉÅÉëë~êáäó=íáÖÜí=áå=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë=~Ö~áåëí=~=Ä~ÅâÖêçìåÇ= çÑ=ëäçïáåÖ=éêáî~íÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=~åÇ=~=ëïÉääáåÖ=ëìêéäìë=çå=íÜÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíëI= ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=AOSM=ÄáääI=Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=NP=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêíë=çê=TMB=çÑ= damK==^=êÉÅÉåí=Äçìí=çÑ=áåÑä~íáçåI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ïáíÜ=ÜÉ~ÇäáåÉ=`mf=êáëáåÖ=ëÜ~êéäó=íç=RIPB= áå=lÅíçÄÉê=~åÇ=ÅçêÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=íç=OIPBI=ÅçìäÇ=íáÉ=íÜÉ=Ü~åÇë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=áå=OMMUI= important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December 8, 2007

% annual change

ìåäÉëë=~å~äóëíë=éêçîÉ=êáÖÜí=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=éêáÅÉ=ÜáâÉë=~êÉ=Å~ìëÉÇ=Äó=íÉãéçê~êó=Ñ~ÅíçêëI= áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ÉåÉêÖóJéêáÅÉë=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜ=ÑççÇ=éêáÅÉë=êÉÑÉäÉÅíáåÖ=~ÇîÉêëÉ= ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=Ñçê=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉK=== = píêìÅíìê~ä=éçäáÅáÉë=Ó=~=êÉîáî~ä=áå=íÜÉ=ï~áíáåÖ\==páåÅÉ=OMMMI=q~áï~åÛë=éçäáíáÅ~ä= áåëíáíìíáçåë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÇÉ~ÇäçÅâÉÇ=áå=~=éçä~êáò~íáçå=ÄÉíïÉÉå=íÜÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåÅó=~åÇ=íÜÉ= m~êäá~ãÉåí=É~ÅÜ=áåëíáíìíáçå=êÉéêÉëÉåíáåÖ=íÜÉ= Consumer Prices íïç=ã~áå=çééçëáåÖ=é~êíáÉëK===bîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=âÉó= 6 Çáë~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=çå=ÑçêÉáÖå=éçäáÅó= 5 ã~ííÉêëI=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=íÜÉ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=íç= 4 j~áåä~åÇ=`Üáå~I=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄ~íÉ=çîÉê=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= 3 áëëìÉë=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëíóãáÉÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ= 2 äáÄÉê~äáò~íáçå=çÑ=~å=ÉêëíïÜáäÉ=ÜÉ~îáäó=ëí~íÉJ 1 Ççãáå~íÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãóK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ= 0 éêçÖêÉëë=çå=äáÄÉê~äáòáåÖ=íÜÉ=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= -1 ëÉÅíçêI=ïÜÉêÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ã~áåí~áåë=~å= -2 2002 2004 2006 áãéçêí~åí=ëí~âÉI=~åÇ=çå=êÉÑçêãáåÖ=íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=ïÜÉêÉ=éêçÑáí~Äáäáíó=ëìÑÑÉêë=~ë=~= êÉëìäí=çÑ=ÅìíJíÜêç~í=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=ÄÉíïÉÉå=íçç=ã~åó=Ä~åâë=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=áå~Äáäáíó=çÑ= éçäáíáÅá~åë=íç=~ÖêÉÉ=íç=Ä~åâ=ãÉêÖÉêëK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=ã~åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëã~ää=Ä~åâë=~ééäó= áå~ÇÉèì~íÉ=äÉåÇáåÖ=ëí~åÇ~êÇëI=~=ÅçåíêáÄìíáåÖ=Ñ~Åíçê=íç=íÜÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=Å~êÇ=Äççã=~åÇ= ÑçääçïáåÖ=Åêáëáë=~=ÑÉï=óÉ~êë=~ÖçK=^Ö~áåI=ÜçéÉë=~êÉ=íÜ~í=~=åÉï=é~êäá~ãÉåí=~åÇ=~=åÉï= éêÉëáÇÉåí=ïçìäÇ=ÄêÉ~â=íÜÉ=ÇÉ~ÇäçÅâK== = mçäáíáÅ~ä=êáëâë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=`Üáå~=Ñ~ÅíçêK==qÜÉ=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=ÄÉíïÉÉå=íÜÉ= mÉçéäÉëÛ=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=`Üáå~I=íÜ~í=áë=`Üáå~=~åÇ=q~áï~å=áå= ãçêÉ=Åçääçèìá~ä=íÉêãëI=äççãë=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=ê~íáåÖ=çÑ=ÄçíÜ=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=få=éêáåÅáéäÉI= ÄçíÜ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíë=~ÖêÉÉ=íÜ~í=ìåáÑáÅ~íáçå=ÅçìäÇ=~í=ëçãÉ=ëí~ÖÉ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~=êÉ~äáíó=~ë=~= îçäìåí~êó=~êê~åÖÉãÉåíI=Äìí=íÜÉ=éêÉãáëÉë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=íáãÉÑê~ãÉ=Ñçê=íÜ~í=íç=Ü~ééÉå=î~êó= ïáÇÉäó=ÄÉíïÉÉå=_ÉáàáåÖ=~åÇ=q~áéÉáK==få=`Üáå~Ûë=Åçåëíáíìíáçå=íÜÉ=ÖÉçÖê~éÜáÅ~ä=~êÉ~=çÑ= q~áï~å=áë=êÉÖ~êÇÉÇ=~ë=~=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖåI=íÉãéçê~êáäó=çìíëáÇÉ=_ÉáàáåÖÛë= ~Çãáåáëíê~íáîÉ=ÅçåíêçäK==qÜ~í=áë=~äëç=áå=~ÅÅçêÇ~åÅÉ=ïáíÜ=q~áï~åÛë=ÅçåëíáíìíáçåI=ïÜáÅÜ= êÉÅçÖåáòÉë=çåäó=çåÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉåíáêÉ=`Üáå~I=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=áëä~åÇ=q~áï~åK== eçïÉîÉêI=áå=q~áï~åI=ÑÉï=éÉçéäÉ=ëÉÉ=~åó=éêçëéÉÅíë=Ñçê=ìåáÑáÅ~íáçå=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ= j~áåä~åÇ=~Ççéíë=~=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëóëíÉã=ãçêÉ=~âáå=íç=íÜ~í=çÑ=q~áï~å=áå=áíë=êÉÅÉåí=Üáëíçêó= çÑ=ãìäíáJé~êíó=ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=çîÉêíÜêçï=çÑ=~ìíÜçêáí~êá~å=hìçãáåí~åÖ=EhjqF= êìäÉ=ìé=íç=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVUMëK=^å=áãéçêí~åí=é~êí=çÑ=q~áï~åÛë=éçäáíóI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ= éêÉëáÇÉåí=~åÇ=Üáë=é~êíóI=ammI=~åÇ=~=ÖêçïáåÖ=ã~àçêáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçåI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç= éçääëI=~éé~êÉåíäó=ëÉÉ=íÜÉ=`çåëíáíìíáçå=~ë=~å=~åçã~äóI=~åÇ=ïçìäÇ=Ñ~îçê=~=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=íç= êÉÑäÉÅí=êÉ~äáíáÉë=çå=íÜÉ=ÖêçìåÇ=áÑ=íÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÅÅçãéäáëÜÉÇ=ïáíÜçìí=êáëâáåÖ=~=ëÉêáçìë= ÅçåÑäáÅí=ïáíÜ=_ÉáàáåÖK== = qÜÉ=ä~ëí=Ñ~ÅíçêI=íÜ~í=áë=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçåI=~ééÉ~êë=íç=ÄÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ=áå=áãéçêí~åÅÉK=tÜáäÉ= ëìêîÉó=éçääë=ëÜçï=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçå=EQUBF=ëíáää=áÇÉåíáÑó= íÜÉãëÉäîÉë=~ë=ÄçíÜ=“q~áï~åÉëÉ=~åÇ=`ÜáåÉëÉÒI=íÜÉ=éêçéçêíáçå=áÇÉåíáÑóáåÖ=íÜÉãëÉäîÉë= ~ë=çåäó=“q~áï~åÉëÉÒ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÖêçïáåÖ=ê~éáÇäó=íç=QRB=ïáíÜ=íÜçëÉ=áÇÉåíáÑóáåÖ= íÜÉãëÉäîÉë=~ë=“`ÜáåÉëÉÒ=ÇïáåÇäáåÖ=íç=RBK==qÜ~í=áë=ÅçããÉåëìê~íÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ= éêçéçêíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçå=íÜ~í=Å~ãÉ=~ë=êÉÑìÖÉë=çîÉê=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ã~áåä~åÇ=áå=NVQUI= ~åÇ=ïÜç=Ñçê=QM=óÉ~êë=êìäÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=íÜêçìÖÜ=ÇáÅí~íçêëÜáéK==qÜ~í=NR=óÉ~êë=çÑ= ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=ëÜçìäÇ=ê~áëÉ=íÜÉ=~ëëÉêíáîÉåÉëë=çÑ=íÜÉ=çêáÖáå~ä=ã~àçêáíó=éçéìä~íáçåI=ãçëí=çÑ= ïÜçã=ëéÉ~â=ÇáëíáåÅíáîÉäó=çíÜÉê=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ä~åÖì~ÖÉë=íÜ~å=ã~åÇ~êáå=JJ=áãéçëÉÇ=çå= q~áï~å=ÇìêáåÖ=~ìíÜçêáí~êá~å=hjq=êìäÉI=ï~ë=éêçÄ~Ääó=áåÉîáí~ÄäÉK=== = ar 12 months

Source: Reuters EcoWin

2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December 8, 2007

USD (billions)

qÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=çÑ=áÇÉåíáíó=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=íç=~=ÜÉ~ÇK==qÜÉ=åÉñí=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë= áå=j~êÅÜ=OMMU=ïáää=ÄÉ=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=çîÉê=q~áï~åÛë=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= ëí~íìë=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=áíë=ÉñÅäìëáçå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=rkK==^ÑíÉê=Ñ~áäáåÖ=íïáÅÉ=ä~ëí=ëìããÉê=íç=~ééäó= Ñçê=rk=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáéI=~ë=íÜÉ=çÑÑáÅá~ä=äÉííÉêë=ïÉêÉ=êÉíìêåÉÇ=Ñêçã=kÉï=vçêâ=ïáíÜçìí= êÉëéçåëÉI=mêÉëáÇÉåí=`ÜÉåI=ÇÉÅáÇÉÇ=íç=éìí=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=íç=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíçê~íÉ=áå=~= êÉÑÉêÉåÇìãK==qÜáë=ï~ëI=Ñçê=ÖççÇ=êÉ~ëçåI=êÉÖ~êÇÉÇ=~ë=~å=ÉäÉÅíáçå=ëíìåí=Äó=ã~åó= çÄëÉêîÉêëI=~ë=jêK=`ÜÉåÛë=éÉêëçå~ä=éçéìä~êáíó=Ü~Ç=ÇêçééÉÇ=Ñêçã=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=TMB=íç= OMB=áå=íÜÉ=ã~ííÉê=çÑ=~=ÑÉï=óÉ~êëI=áå=é~êí=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=Åçêêìéíáçå=ëìëéáÅáçåë=~Ö~áåëí= ÜáãëÉäÑ=~åÇ=Üáë=Ñ~ãáäóK==eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíçê~íÉ=ëÉáòÉÇ=ìéçå=íÜÉ=áëëìÉ=ïáíÜ=ÑÉêîçê= ~åÇ=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåíÛë=amm=é~êíó=Ü~Ç=åç=éêçÄäÉã=Ö~íÜÉêáåÖ=íÜÉ=åÉÉÇÉÇ=UMMIMMM= ëáÖå~íìêÉë=Ñçê=~=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=íç=ÄÉ=~êê~åÖÉÇK=Efå=Ñ~Åí=íÜÉó=Ö~íÜÉêÉÇ=~Äçìí=P=ãáääáçåKF== = qÜÉ=éçéìä~êáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=áëëìÉ=ï~ë=ëìÄëÉèìÉåíäó=êÉÅçåÑáêãÉÇ=Äó=ä~êÖÉ=ëìééçêíáîÉ= ÇÉãçåëíê~íáçåëI=ê~ääóáåÖ=ëçãÉ=RMMIMMM=éÉçéäÉ=áå=q~áéÉá=áå=ä~ëí=pÉéíÉãÄÉêK==pÉÉáåÖ= íÜÉ=ÉåíÜìëá~ëã=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíçê~íÉI=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçåI=hjqI=Ü~Ç=äáííäÉ=ÅÜçáÅÉ=Äìí=íç=àçáåI= Äìí=ïáíÜ=~=ëã~ää=ÇáëíáåÅíáçåW=qÜÉó=ÇÉÅáÇÉÇ=íç=~êê~åÖÉ=~=é~ê~ääÉä=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó=ëÜçìäÇ=~ééäó=Ñçê=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáé=ìåÇÉê=áíë=çÑÑáÅá~ä=å~ãÉI=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=`Üáå~I=åçí= ìåÇÉê=íÜÉ=åÉï=å~ãÉ=“q~áï~åÒ=~ë=éêçéçëÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=JJ=íÜÉ=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉ=ÄÉáåÖ= íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=áë=íÜÉ=ãçêÉ=çÄàÉÅíáçå~ÄäÉ=íç=_ÉáàáåÖK===“q~áï~åÒ=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~=ÇÉ=àìêÉ=åÉï= Åçìåíêó=íç=íÜÉ=rkI=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=çêÖ~åáò~íáçå=~äêÉ~Çó=Ü~ë=çåÅÉ=ÉñéÉääÉÇ=íÜÉ=“oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ= `Üáå~Ò=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=rk=áå=NVTN=~ë=íÜÉ=mÉçéäÉëÛ=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=`Üáå~=àçáåÉÇK=oÉÖ~êÇäÉëë=çÑ= íÜÉ=êÉëìäíI=q~áï~å=áë=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=ÅçãÉ=~åó=ÅäçëÉê=íç=rk=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáéI=~åÇ=íÜÉ= èìÉëíáçå=áë=ãçêÉ=çÑ=~=ëóãÄçäáÅ=íÜ~å=éê~ÅíáÅ~ä=å~íìêÉK==lÄëÉêîÉêë=êÉéçêí=çÑ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= éçéìä~ê=Ñêìëíê~íáçå=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=áå~Äáäáíó=íç=~íí~áå=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëéÉÅí=áí= ëÜçìäÇ=ÇÉëÉêîÉ=áå=êÉÖ~êÇ=çÑ=áíë=ÉÅçåçãáÅI=ëÅáÉåíáÑáÅ=~åÇ=êÉÅÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~ÅÜáÉîÉãÉåíë= ìåÇÉê=ÇÉãçÅê~ÅóK=== = `Üáå~Ûë=çÄàÉÅíáçåë=~êÉ=Ü~êÇ=íç=ìåÇÉêëí~åÇ=Ñêçã=~=éê~ÅíáÅ~ä=éçáåí=çÑ=îáÉïK=qÜÉ=íïç= ÅçìåíêáÉëÛ=ÉÅçåçãáÉë=Éåàçó=ÅäçëÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=äáåâë=ïáíÜ=`Üáå~Jíê~ÇÉ=ëìééçêíáåÖ=ëçãÉ=N= ãáääáçå=àçÄë=áå=q~áï~å=~åÇ=q~áï~åÉëÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=`Üáå~=ëìééçêíáåÖ=éêçÄ~Ääó=~ë= ãìÅÜ=~ë=NMM=ãáääK=gçÄë=Äó=ëçãÉ=Éëíáã~íÉëK= FDI outflow líÜÉêïáëÉI=íÜÉ=íïç=ÅçìåíêáÉë=Ü~îÉ=åç= 11 10 ~Çãáåáëíê~íáîÉ=äáåâ~ÖÉë=çê=éçäáíáÅ~ä= 9 8 Åçää~Äçê~íáçåI=Äìí=~äëç=åç=çíÜÉê=Åä~áãë=~Ö~áåëí= 7 6 É~ÅÜ=çíÜÉêK=fí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëìÖÖÉëíÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= 5 q~áï~å=áëëìÉI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=áë=~ää=íÜ~í=ëíáää=ÅÉãÉåíë= 4 3 íÜÉ=ìåáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=`ÜáåÉëÉ=`çããìåáëí=m~êíóI=~åÇ= 2 1 íÜ~í=q~áï~å=~ë=ëìÅÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~å=ÉäÉãÉåí=çÑ= 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~ä=éçïÉê=ëíêìÖÖäÉ=áå=_ÉáàáåÖK== Foreign Direct Investment eçïÉîÉêI=Åä~áãë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Åçããìåáëí=é~êíó= Mainland Investment ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ìå~ÄäÉ=íç=Åçåíêçä=áíë=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= éçéìä~íáçåI=ëÜçìäÇ=áí=äÉí=q~áï~å=ëäáé=çìí=çÑ=áíë=Ü~åÇëI=ëÉÉã=ëçãÉïÜ~í=Ñ~êJÑÉíÅÜÉÇ= ~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=Ä~ÅâÖêçìåÇ=çÑ=ëíêáÅí=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=åÉïë=ãÉÇá~=Åçåíêçä=áå=íÜÉ=j~áåä~åÇK== tÜáäÉ=_ÉáàáåÖ=Ü~ë=êÉ~ëëÉêíÉÇ=áíë=éçëáíáçå=çå=q~áï~åÛë=éä~ååÉÇ=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=~ë=~=ëíÉé= íÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=íêáÖÖÉê=`Üáå~Ûë=çïå=~åíáJëÉÅÉëëáçå=ä~ï=çÑ=OMMRI=äÉÖ~ääó=ÄáåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=íç=~Åí=ïáíÜ=~ää=~î~áä~ÄäÉ=ãÉ~åëI=_ÉáàáåÖ=Ü~ë=êÉÅÉåíäó=éä~óÉÇ=ëçÑí=çå=íÜÉ= áëëìÉI=åçí=íç=éêçîçâÉ=ÉîÉå=ëíêçåÖÉê=ëìééçêí=áå=q~áï~å=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~ÖÉåÇ~=çÑ=íÜÉ= ëáííáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíI=ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=ÜÉ=áë=Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ääó=Ä~êêÉÇ=Ñêçã=êìååáåÖ=Ñçê=~=íÜáêÇ= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ=íÉêãK== = qÜÉ=rp=ÑáåÇë=áíëÉäÑ=áå=~=ëáãáä~ê=èì~åÇ~êóK==t~ëÜáåÖíçåDë=ëí~âÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=áë= êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=áíë=áåíÉêÉëí=áå=^ëá~å=ëí~Äáäáíó=~åÇ=áíë=áãéäáÅáí=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=çÑ=q~áï~åDë=ëÉÅìêáíó= éêçîáÇÉÇ=q~áéÉá=ÇçÉë=åçí=éêçîçâÉ=_ÉáàáåÖ=áåíç=ãáäáí~êó=~ÅíáçåëK==rp=çÑÑáÅá~äë=Ü~îÉ= Source: Reuters EcoWin

3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December 8, 2007

êÉÅÉåíäó=ëçìÖÜí=íç=ëíêçåÖäó=Çáëëì~ÇÉ=q~áï~å=Ñêçã=ÜçäÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=éä~ååÉÇ=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìãI= Äìí=ã~ó=~äëç=Ü~îÉ=íç=ãçîÉ=Å~ìíáçìëäó=åçí=íç=éêçîçâÉ=~=Ä~Åâä~ëÜK==lîÉê=TNB=çÑ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=íç=~=êÉÅÉåí=éçää=ë~áÇ=íÜÉó=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íÜÉ=rp=“Ü~Ç=åç=êáÖÜí=íç=áåíÉêÑÉêÉÒ=áå= ïÜÉíÜÉê=q~áï~å=ÜÉäÇ=~=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=çå=íÜÉ=rk=áëëìÉK= = pç=ïÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=Ü~ééÉå\=qÜÉêÉ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=~=ÜáÖÜ=äáâÉäáÜççÇ=íÜ~í=~=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=Eçê= íïçF=ïáää=ÄÉ=ÜÉäÇ=áå=åÉñí=j~êÅÜ=áå=é~ê~ääÉä=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=êÉÖìä~ê=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë= ïáíÜ=~=êÉëìäí=íÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=ëÉêáçìëäó=áêêáí~íÉ=_ÉáàáåÖK=qÜÉ=q~áï~åÉëÉ=éçéìä~íáçåI=Äó= Åçåíê~ëíI=~ééÉ~êë=ëìêéêáëáåÖäó=êÉä~ñÉÇ=íÜ~í=åçíÜáåÖ=Ä~Ç=ïáää=Ü~ééÉåK=_~êêáåÖ=~å=~ää= çìí=ï~êI=íÜÉ=ëí~âÉë=Ñçê=`Üáå~=~êÉ=éêçÄ~Ääó=áå=ÄçíÜ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~åÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=íÉêãë=~ë= ÜáÖÜ=~ë=q~áï~åÛëK==^=ãáäáí~êó=~ÅíáçåI=ÉîÉå=áÑ=åçí=ãÉí=ïáíÜ=rp=ãáäáí~êó=êÉëáëí~åÅÉI= ãáÖÜí=Ü~îÉ=ëÉêáçìë=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=Ñçê=_ÉáàáåÖ=áå=íÉêãë=çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=äçëë=~åÇ= áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ÅêÉÇáÄáäáíó=~åÇ=~äëç=éçíÉåíá~ä=íÜêÉ~íë=íç=Åçããìåáëí=é~êíó=êìäÉK==qÜÉ=rpI= çå=áíë=ëáÇÉI=ãáÖÜí=äçëÉ=áå=ÅêÉÇáÄáäáíó=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ëí~åÇáåÖ=ïÉêÉ=áí=íç=ëí~åÇ=áÇäÉ= Äó=ïÜÉå=~å=~ääó=áë=ÄÉáåÖ=éìåáëÜÉÇ=Ñçê=ÉñéêÉëëáåÖ=áíë=ïáää=áå=ÑêÉÉI=ÇÉãçÅê~íáÅ= ÉäÉÅíáçåëK==_çíÜ=íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=`Üáå~I=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ÅçìäÇ=í~âÉ=ëçä~ÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=ÄçíÜ=çÑ= íÜÉ=çééçëáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=Å~åÇáÇ~íÉë=~êÉ=çÑ=~=ÅçãéäÉíÉäó=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåí=ëí~íìêÉ=íÜ~å=íÜÉ= çìíÖçáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíK==qÜÉ=~éé~êÉåí=ÑêçåíJêìååÉêI=cê~åâ=eëáÉÜ=çÑ=ammI=áë=ÅçåëáÇÉêÉÇ=~= Å~ååó=ÅÉåíÉêJçêáÉåíÉÇ=éçäáíáÅá~åK==tÜçÉîÉê=ïáåëI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ääó= ÄçìåÇ=íç=áãéäÉãÉåí=~åó=ã~àçêáíó=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=êÉëìäíI=éêçîáÇÉÇ=~í=äÉ~ëí=RMB= é~êíáÅáé~íáçåK=== JJGJJ= q~áï~åÛë=çîÉê~ää=ëíêçåÖ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ëçãÉ=ÄäÉãáëÜÉë=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=ïçìäÇ=ìåÇÉê=åçêã~ä=ÅáêÅìãëí~åÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=éä~ÅÉÇ=áí=áå=íÜÉ=~ÄëçäìíÉ= ÄÉëí=ê~íáåÖ=Å~íÉÖçêáÉëK==eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=éçíÉåíá~ä=Ñçê=~=ëÉêáçìë=ÅçåÑäáÅí=ïáíÜ=~=ãìÅÜ= ä~êÖÉê=åÉáÖÜÄçìê=ïÉáÖÜë=çå=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉëK==oÉÑÉêêáåÖ=íç= íÜÉ=ìéJÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉãI=pí~åÇ~êÇ=C=mççêëI=ëí~íÉë=Ñçê=Éñ~ãéäÉW=“qÜÉëÉ= ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜíë=íÜÉ=ìåéêÉÇáÅí~Äáäáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅêçëëJëíê~áí=ëáíì~íáçåK=tÜáäÉ= ÄçíÜ=ëáÇÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=q~áï~å=píê~áí=~êÉ=~åñáçìë=íç=~îçáÇ=~=ãáäáí~êó=ÅçåÑêçåí~íáçåI=ëìÅÜ= ~å=çìíÅçãÉ=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=êìäÉÇ=çìíK=ÁíÜÉêÉ=áë=~=éçëëáÄáäáíó=çÑ=ãáëÅ~äÅìä~íáçåëI=ïáíÜ= éçíÉåíá~ääó=Éåçêãçìë=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉÖáçåKÒ==tÉ=ÅçåÅìê=~åÇ=êÉÖ~êÇ=íÜáë= éçëëáÄáäáíó=~ë=åçåJåÉÖäáÖáÄäÉ=Äìí=~äëç=åçí=çîÉêïÜÉäãáåÖ=~åÇ=Ä~ëáÅ~ääó=åçí=ãìÅÜ= ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=OMMSK====

Key ratios

Resilience

2007

18 16

GDP/capita ($)

14

16666

12 10 8

GDP (change)

5%

Macro balance

Liquidity

6 4 2

Inflation

2%

Trade balance/GDP

7%

Reserves/imports (months)

-1%

Government debt/GDP

25%

=

mÉÉêëW eçåÖhçåÖ= `Üáå~= hçêÉ~=

Absence of event risk

13

Budget balance/GDP

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW===^H pCmW==^^JLåÉÖK

0

Taiwan Hong Kong

Information

Average EM

Graph: The pentagon shows Taiwan's strengths as of a typical developed country akin to Hong Kong, but with one unusual exception, high event risk related to the political relationship to China.

4

=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December 8, 2007

Key data: 2002 2003 GDP (bill. US$) 298 306 GDP (change) 4,6% 3,5% GDP/capita (US$) 13244 13545 Investments/GDP 18,7% 18,4% Budget balance/GDP -4,2% -2,7% Govt debt/GDP 33,7% 32,9% CPI inflation (%) -0,2% -0,3% Money demand (%) 15,4% 13,3% Stock prices (index) 5247 5144 Interest rates 2% 1% Exch. Rate ($) 34,6 34,4 Trade/GDP (%) 83% 90% Oil price (Brent $) 25,0 28,9 mill. US $ 135 225 150 484 Export of goods 111 011 125 637 Imports of goods 1 398 4 387 Other: Curr. account 25 612 29 234 (% of GDP) 8,6% 9,6% -3 441 -5 229 FDI Loan repayments -31 225 -40 755 43 501 53 642 Net other capital flows Balance of payments 34 447 36 892 148 740 185 632 Reserves 41 290 55 088 Total debt o/w short term debt 31 335 41 747 Sources: Oxford Economic Forecasting Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Latest IMF arrangements

2004 331 6,2%

2005 355 4,1%

2006 364 4,7%

2007 383 4,4%

2008 419 4,2%

2009 453 4,2%

14612

15566

15903

16666

18169

19564

20,7% -2,8% 29,9% 1,6% 16,4% 6033 1% 33,4 105% 38,3

19,9% -1,4% 29,0% 2,3% 4,5% 6090 1% 32,2 107% 54,4

19,2% -1,6% 27,6% 0,6% 3,8% 6842 2% 32,5 116% 65,4

19,7% -1,4% 25,4% 1,6% 5,1%

19,9% -1,3% 24,6% 2,3% 3,9%

20,1% -1,2% 24,1% 1,7% 5,0%

2% 32,8 120% 71,9

2% 32,0 124% 78,4

3% 31,4 130% 70,5

182 342 166 187 2 323 18 478 5,6% -5 247 -60 512 94 489 47 208 232 840 78 609 60 589

198 772 180 644 -2 109 16 019 4,5% -4 403 -67 551 76 041 20 106 252 946 84 775 68 468

223 880 200 426 1 207 24 661 6,8% 25 -74 708 58 350 8 328 261 274 86 841 74 918

243 651 217 503 -803 25 344 6,6% -1 392 -72 810 53 630 4 772 266 046 83 611 71 415

271 001 248 990 -1 077 20 934 5,0% -3 000 -72 135 59 958 5 757 271 803 83 284 71 034

304 851 282 194 -2 808 19 850 4,4% -4 200 -72 135 63 058 6 573 278 376 83 284 71 034

A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 AA AAAAAAAAParliamentary democracy Legislative and Presidential elections, January 12 and March 22, 2008 None Not an IMF member

E x c h a n g e ra te

S to c k e x c h a n g e ,

3 5 ,0

Index

USD/TWD

8 0 00 3 2 ,5

6 0 00 4 0 00 2 0 00 00

3 0 ,0 00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

02

04

S o u rce : R e ute rs E coW in

S o urce : R e uters E coW in

In d u s tr ia l p ro d u c ti 2001=100

USD (billions)

F o r e ig n R e s e r v e s 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 00

02

04

06

150 130 110 90 00

06 S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

02

04

06 S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

5

=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December 8, 2007

=

fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK= = = afp`i^fjbo= = = ^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ= EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~= båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK= = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå= çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã= ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ= êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK= oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê= ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK= = vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI= çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí= éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåK= = pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK== = = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW== íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å= áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë= ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ= é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=

= =

6